Not a good news day today….

Reinfection documented at 3 months…. https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550

“A doctor from Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan has been confirmed as infected with the coronavirus, three months after she recovered from the virus”

“Preliminary studies in China, Germany, Britain and elsewhere have found that patients infected with the novel coronavirus make protective antibodies as part of their immune system’s defenses, but these appear to last only a few months.”

Older children just as good of as carrier as an adult – https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-older-children-covid-spread-study-20200718-5q5eo4ylibcwppd2haxwvdp6re-story.html

“Children younger than age 10 transmit to others much less often than adults do, but the risk is not zero. And those between the ages of 10-19 can spread the virus at least as well as adults do”

“The researchers traced the contacts only of children who felt ill, so it is still unclear how efficiently asymptomatic children spread the virus, said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

“I think it was always going to be the case that symptomatic children are infectious,” she said. “The questions about the role of children are more around whether children who don’t have symptoms are infectious.”

Rivers was a member of a scientific panel that on Wednesday recommended reopening schools wherever possible for disabled children and for those in elementary schools, because those groups have the most trouble learning online. She said the new study does not alter that recommendation.

The study is more worrisome for children in middle and high school. This group was even more likely to infect others than adults were, the study found. But some experts said that finding may be a fluke or may stem from the children’s behaviors.

These older children are frequently as big as adults, and yet may have some of the same unhygienic habits as young children do. They may also have been more likely than the younger children to socialize with their peers within the high-rise complexes in South Korea.

“We can speculate all day about this, but we just don’t know,” Osterholm said. “The bottom line message is: There’s going to be transmission.””

I have agreed with the bottom line for a long time – the cat is out of the bag. We need to get healthy as a society (diet and exercise). We need to employ our engineering capabilities to reduce viral load. There are significant advantageous in spending on mechanical solutions beyond reduction of just covid issues – reduction of other illness – broad distribution of wealth across society (installers, mechanics, engineers, scientist, etc). Spending billions on a long-shot (vaccine) may not be the best capital allocation. Capital is allocated to a very small part of society and the result will likely be very focused to covid without any ancillary benefits.

Sundays are good reporting day – but that’s not reality – ignorance is bliss. Brazil under 1K but still lead in deaths at 921. US confirmation still rising at a strong pace 63K

AZ leading in death at 147. FL leading in confirmations

Same counties….Harris back in lead for TX in confirmation 1247

The amazing ICU bed flattening in Houston TSA in the face of additional confirmation does support my hypothesis I discussed before. Fatality rate has not risen significantly therefore there are not sacrifices being made in keeping ICU beds low. Likely over prescribed in the beginning phase – as noted before not necessarily nefarious.

Germany is observing a steep drop in deaths so something is positive in the world in terms of trends – now only 3 deaths per day.