The big statistical discussion is the results from the Santa Clara testing – unfortunately supports my hypothesis that the cat is out of the bag – https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody-research-coronavirus-widespread/story?id=70206121&cid=clicksource_4380645_4_three_posts_card_hed

“The first large-scale community test of 3,300 people in Santa Clara County found that 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested were positive for antibodies — a number suggesting a far higher past infection rate than the official count.”

“Based on the initial data, researchers estimate that the range of people who may have had the virus to be between 48,000 and 81,000 in the county of 2 million — as opposed to the approximately 1,000 in the county’s official tally at the time the samples were taken.”

“"There has been wide recognition that we were undercounting infections because of lack of testing or patients were asymptomatic," Brownstein said.”

“Bendavid said the research, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, suggests that the large majority of the county, around 95%, is still without antibodies and for getting people back to work “what that means for things like, are we going to wait for people to get infected or get antibodies in order for them to get back to work… knowing that well upwards of 90% of the population doesn’t have antibodies is going to make that a very difficult choice."

My hypothesis comes from the Princess Diamond result plus the tight correlation between tested and confirmed case. With such tight correlation – its not random walk – even after significant quarantine measures the correlation stayed the same – which means the quarantine was a failure or people have it already or we keep testing the same folks– my hypothesis went with lots of people already have it and also noting that Princess Diamond ended up at 20% infected. Unfortunately we are seeing some higher numbers now from aircraft carriers – upwards to 40%. The Princess Diamond population density is 10X of NY county so it shouldn’t get that bad. On a state basis population density is the best demographic measure right now on confirmed/per capita R^2~0.4 NY approaching as a state 3-4% confirmed similar to Santa Clara is clearly not unreasonable. Santa Clara density is much less than NY county but compared to NY state it is much more dense. This would produce around 800K infected – only ¼ of the currently confirmed. The path to death would not be straightforward as much of the death/confirmed is not corrected for the denominator of confirmed. Unfortunately the deaths in NY has already passed the death calculated using Princess Diamond level of mortality rate IF we assume the infected level at 4% (800K x .0125)=10K deaths (currently reported 17K deaths). Germany has tested 2% of population and currently at 3% death/confirmed so if we go with that level this produces 24K death for NY ….Spain also 2% tested – 10% death/confirmed that puts NY ~80K. S. Korea 2% death/confirmed. I do hope I do get a null hypothesis on those confirmed.

All states show strong trend for confirmed/population rising linearly with testing.

NY continues to show large death per day numbers. The rest of the world seems to have tempered their numbers. Not sure what is going on in NY. It would be nice to get detail death data so we can analyze what is going on.

Testing continues to wise Rhode Island now caught up to NY for testing per capita.

Back to the climb of daily deaths for NY. Rhode Island looks to be starting to surge in deaths.

Global view is currently looking better than the US other than S. America countries. India has some high confirmation but their death numbers are still low relatively speaking.