Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine a tale of two stories on the patent waiver – Pfizer claims no – https://www.timesofisrael.com/pfizer-head-bourla-says-hes-not-at-all-in-favor-of-us-vaccine-patent-waiver/ Moderna go for it – https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-waiver-moderna-ceo-says-didnt-lose-sleep-2021-5

To me this is a lot more interesting – a breakthrough from a healthy active pro sports athlete completes his vaccination back in MARCH and gets sick (timeline not clear SI reporting sucks – according to twitter notes a week after) and felt significant symptoms – too bad the article doesn’t point out which vaccine twitter notes J&J majority of team but still who knows – also notes still testing positive! – https://www.si.com/nba/2021/05/07/warriors-damion-lee-tests-positive-covid-19-fully-vaccinated

“Lee told reporters he experienced a variety of symptoms, including headache, chills, sneezing, congestion, soreness and body aches, adding that it felt, "like I was hit by a car, hit by two cars at once…every step I took, it hurt."

Lee also described experiencing brain fog, difficulty breathing and a loss of appetite. He said he had difficulty sustaining a conversation, and like, "there was a weight on [his] chest for a couple days."

Vaccine breakthrough stats from Oregon – https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2021/05/oregon-reports-611-vaccinated-people-infected-with-covid-19-8-died.html

“Public health officials announced Thursday that a total of 611 people in Oregon have tested positive for COVID-19 even though at least two weeks had passed since they’d finished their full courses of vaccinations.

Eight of those people died, with each age 70 or older.

Officials with the Oregon Health Authority said these cases represent a “very small” percentage — about .047% — of the 1.3 million Oregonians who’ve completed the one- or two-dose courses of the Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer or Moderna regimens.”

Well its coming for kids – great for the kids compromised – but what to do with the healthy kids? Risk/reward – https://greekreporter.com/2021/05/08/pfizer-vaccine-100-effective-in-study-of-12-15-year-old-children/

“The Pfizer vaccine, the first one produced and approved for use in the fight against the coronavirus, has shown remarkable efficacy in trials with 12-15 year old teenagers, with 100% effectiveness noted thus far.”

“The company recently released the preliminary results of its study of 2,260 United States volunteers age 12 through 15, showing there were zero cases of Covid-19 contracted among fully vaccinated children. The result was compared against the outcome of a control group receiving a placebo shot, in which 18 subjects developed the virus.”

SOOOO aggravating/disappointing it took this long to acknowledge the obvious. Its time to focus on ventilation – guidelines CO2 sensors <1000 ppm! Why so late? IF known at beginning and had CO2 sensors and guidelines I am very certain the spread would have not been as bad. People were spreading it from get togethers as they didn’t know CO2 levels could be used to calculate ventilation levesl in their home. IF they did they would have opened windows or stopped gathering in those locations. Airborne Coronavirus Is a Threat, the C.D.C. Acknowledges – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

“Federal health officials on Friday updated public guidance about how the coronavirus spreads, emphasizing that transmission occurs by inhaling very fine respiratory droplets and aerosolized particles, as well as through contact with sprayed droplets or touching contaminated hands to one’s mouth, nose or eyes.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now states explicitly — in large, bold lettering — that airborne virus can be inhaled even when one is more than six feet away from an infected individual. The new language, posted online, is a change from the agency’s previous position that most infections were acquired through “close contact, not airborne transmission.”

IF one was to develop a transfer agent a cold virus (corona virus) would be an ideal mechanism. Perhaps out of good the thought of transferring immunity from cold flu etc…but as any good sci-fi movie shows intention does not lead to results. Conspiracy theory will likely continue around Covid 19 – everything you need is there – A US funded viral lab – the location of break out near there – and now “leak” documents https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/leaked-chinese-document-reveals-a-sinister-plan-to-unleash-coronaviruses/news-story/53674e8108ad5a655e07e990daa85465

“A document written by Chinese scientists and Chinese public health officials in 2015 discussed the weaponisation of SARS coronavirus, reveals the Weekend Australian.

Titled The Unnatural Origin of SARS and New Species of Man-Made Viruses as Genetic Bioweapons, the paper predicted that World War Three would be fought with biological weapons.

Released five years before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, it describes SARS coronaviruses as a “new era of genetic weapons” that can be “artificially manipulated into an emerging human ­disease virus, then weaponised and unleashed in a way never seen before”.

“The document is discussed in a new book What really happened in Wuhan by The Australian investigations writer Sharri Markson which will be published by HarperCollins in September.”

Perhaps America is healing but there is no point in being reckless. Miami also is consistently the highest confirmation county in the US – https://www.dmarge.com/2021/05/miami-dance-party-michael-bibi.html

Once again India leads…

Concerns of other Asian countries are being written about – but the data doesn’t show any large moves

India clearly the concern for the world

FL leads death and confirmation – perhaps too much partying…

Cook IL leading the county data

Covid19mathblog.com

This article is informative if you didn’t know about mRNA – the real reason to post it is to show that the damage is already done on J&J and Astrazeneca vaccine even though I did show the mRNA vaccine also have issues at the same low levels (https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-probing-link-between-pfizer-shot-and-heart-problem-in-men-under-30/) – but never got the press like they did. https://www.salon.com/2021/05/05/do-mrna-vaccines-affect-my-dna/

“In fact, the mRNA vaccines have been revealed to be safer than the traditional vaccines, at least in the Western World. Both the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccines — which are not mRNA vaccines — have been beset by very rare blood clot issues that have resulted in some countries suspending their usage. The two mRNA vaccines, on the other hand, have seen no "safety signals," as they are called, even after hundreds of millions of shots given.”

More positive stats for Pfizer – https://www.firstpost.com/tech/science/pfizer-biontech-vaccine-offers-over-95-percent-protection-against-covid-19-says-largest-real-world-study-9596781.html

“By the start of April, nearly five million people in Israel had received two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech jab, more than 70 percent of the population.

The study found that two doses conveyed 95.3 percent protection against infection and 96.7 protection against death seven days after the second dose.

After 14 days, that protection increased to 96.5 percent and 98 percent, respectively.

But the protection was considerably lower when people received just a single vaccine dose.

Between seven and 14 days after the first dose, protection against infection was found to be 57.7 percent, and protection against death 77 percent.”

India news – vaccine seems effective at current strains…but it’s the issue of potential new strains…. https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/the-good-news-is-that-vaccines-work-against-india-strain-the-bad-news-2434326

“The Good News Is That Vaccines Work Against India Strain. The Bad News…

Indian strain is called a double mutant because of the presence of two changes in the virus’s genome.

The good news is that the vaccines work against a new virus strain circulating in India that’s spread to several other countries.

The bad news is it won’t be only the new version of the pathogen to emerge from an outbreak of this scale, underscoring the urgency of mapping other possible variants that may be currently racing through India’s tightly-packed population of 1.4 billion people.”

Over 400K confirmed in India

Still show some signs of topping in India

FL leads both death and confirmation

Leading county for confirmation is Begen, NJ. Wayne MI leads death at 18

Covid19mathblog.com

CDC guidelines for summer camp scrutinized – interesting data presented for youth covid – https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/05/experts-cdcs-summer-camp-rules-are-cruel-irrational.html

“he CDC’s newly released guidance for summer camps is notable for its rigidity and strictness: Masks must be worn at all times, even outdoors, by everyone, including vaccinated adults and children as young as 2 years old. The exceptions are for eating and swimming. (The guidance helpfully notes that if a person is having trouble breathing or is unconscious, no mask need be worn.) Campers must remain three feet apart from each other at all times including, again, outdoors. Six feet of distance must be maintained during meals and between campers and staff. If you need to sneeze and you don’t have a tissue, do it into your mask. (Children presumably are expected to carry a cache of spares.) Campers and staff should be cohorted, and any interaction with a person outside the cohort must be conducted at a distance of six feet. Art supplies, toys, books, and games are not to be shared.”

“It has been well documented that kids are at exceedingly low risk of serious illness from COVID-19. For perspective, the CDC estimates that around 600 children died of influenza in the 2017–18 season; during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, 358 pediatric flu deaths were reported. Each year, more than 700 children die from drowning. Through the end of April, 277 have died from COVID-19.”

“the evidence is unequivocal that outdoor transmission is rare. An Irish study of more than 230,000 cases found just 0.1 percent were derived outdoors. Another study, awaiting peer review, found that the odds of a primary case being transmitted in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater than in an open-air environment. A systematic review found that outdoor transmission accounts for under 10 percent of cases. Another review found “very few examples of outdoor transmission of COVID-19 in everyday life.” It noted that risk increases when there is no social distancing but that temperatures conducive to outdoor activity – for example, summer sun – were “associated with lower COVID-19 transmission.””

“Dimitri Christakis, an epidemiologist and the editor-in-chief of JAMA Pediatrics, the leading journal for pediatric medicine, “is unfairly draconian.” We should let kids be close and play, he said. And with rapid testing twice a week on a rolling basis, a relatively easy program to conduct, he added, we should be able to forgo masks. Even without testing, Christakis said that sports like soccer should be able to be done without masks. And that “keeping children masked for activities like baseball and tennis is ridiculous.””

“The WHO says when deciding whether children ages 6 to 11 should wear masks to consider if there is widespread transmission in the area. This type of language gives the necessary latitude, not to mention political cover, to local officials to ease up on restrictions. By contrast, the CDC camp guidance allows for no such reasonable calculation to be factored in. The WHO also says that children under age 6 shouldn’t wear masks at all, whereas in the U.S. 2-year-olds are expected to do so. The WHO further advises that children should not wear a mask “when playing sports or doing physical activities, such as running, jumping, or playing on the playground, so that it doesn’t compromise their breathing.””

“Dr. Christakis said, “We’ve consistently deprioritized the essential needs of human childhood. Keeping kids out of school, enforcing social distance on them.” We have to learn to tolerate some level of risk, he said. It’s clear that children’s well-being is not the priority in these guidelines, he said, and “we have to try as best we can to give children their lives back.” Mark Gorelik, the pediatric immunologist, said, “Irrational recommendations will do no good, could in this case do harm, and really discredit federal agencies.””

It would seem many of these policies/guidelines/recommendations has hurt the demographics who is the least impacted. There is certainly some inequality here. The reasonable elders need to speak up for the voiceless.

Good news on vaccine front supporting just 1 shot – https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-05-05/south-korea-says-astrazeneca-pfizer-covid-19-vaccines-87-effective-after-first-shot

“One dose of COVID-19 vaccines from AstraZeneca Plc and Pfizer was 86.6% effective in preventing infections among people aged 60 and older, real world data released by South Korea showed on Wednesday.”

“Data by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) showed the Pfizer vaccine, jointly developed by BioNTech, was 89.7% effective in preventing infection at least two weeks after a first dose was given, while the AstraZeneca shot was 86.0% effective.

Its analysis is based on more than 3.5 million people in South Korea aged 60 and older for two months from Feb. 26 and included 521,133 people who received a first dose of either Pfizer or AstraZeneca shot.

There were 1,237 COVID-19 cases in the data and only 29 were from the vaccinated group, the KDCA said.”

“South Korea has so far vaccinated 6.7% of its 52 million strong population, but has set an ambitious target of giving shots to 70% of its people by September and reaching herd immunity by November.

Starting on Wednesday, South Koreans who are fully vaccinated and show a negative COVID-19 test and no symptoms will be exempted from the two-week mandatory quarantine upon their return from overseas travel, to encourages more vaccinations.”

Getting rid of the shot – to a pill with significantly enhance adoption – https://fortune.com/2021/05/04/vaccine-jabs-covid-19-pills-nasal-sprays-vaxart-altimmune/

“Instead of vials shipped around the world, and having to be stored at sub-zero temperatures, the new drugs would look more like this: blister-pack tablets and nasal sprays.

“Our expectation is one tablet per year,” Sean Tucker, chief scientific officer of San Francisco biotech company Vaxart, told Fortune on a Zoom call on Monday, holding up a pill that looks like a simple vitamin tablet—the company’s new COVID-19 vaccine. The company has just completed Phase I trials, and Tucker says his team plans to conduct Phase II trials this summer, and efficacy trials late this year; he hopes to receive authorization for emergency use in the U.S. within a year. “We don’t need syringes,” he says.”
“Of the 93 vaccine trials underway, just two are for oral tablets and seven are the nasal variety, according to the World Health Organization.”

“In a survey commissioned by Vaxart, and released last week, about 23% of people polled in the U.S. said they did not want to be jabbed with a COVID-19 vaccine. But about one-third of those said they would take a vaccine tablet if it were available. Based on that, Vaxart estimates that a tablet might bump up by another 19 million the number of people in the U.S. who are willing be immunized—perhaps enough for the country to reach herd immunity.”

India once again leads

Good news India seems to be slowing down in both death and confirmation

FL leads confirmation – MI leads death

Cook IL leading confirmation again. Wayne MI leads death

Vaccine growth is in a downward trajectory

Covid19mathblog.com

Lots of news about young people and covid now – I guess the big push to get them vaccinated and statistically speaking they will represent a greater % of infected assuming the vaccines do work – https://www.knkx.org/post/children-now-account-22-new-us-covid-cases-why

“The number of children contracting COVID-19 in the U.S. is much lower than the record highs set at the start of the new year, but children now account for more than a fifth of new coronavirus cases in states that release data by age, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. It’s a statistic that may surprise many: Just one year ago, child COVID-19 cases made up only around 3% of the U.S. total.”

Shouldn’t surprise its just math…numerator stays same denominator falls…

“Experts link the trend to several factors – particularly high vaccination rates among older Americans. The U.S. recently announced 100 million people were fully vaccinated against COVID-19. But other dynamics are also in play, from new COVID-19 variants to the loosening of restrictions on school activities.

It’s also worth noting that for the vast majority of the pandemic, the age group with the highest case rates has been 18 to 24 in the U.S., as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes.”

“With mitigation measures in place in school, it still appears that transmission is much lower than it is in the surrounding community. But when you have a surge in the surrounding community, it’s inevitable that you’re going to see it in schools.”

“Now, the good news is we may, in the coming weeks, have the vaccine approved down to age 12. We don’t have any official dates on that yet, but it may be soon. Pfizer submitted their data to the FDA last month. So that could be a big game changer because we’ve known all along that adolescents tend to be both more likely to get infected and to spread the infection relative to the younger kids. So getting that population vaccinated is also going to make a difference in these dynamics. And I think it also can make a big difference for a lot of families’ summer plans”

“it is absolutely true that it’s less severe in kids than it is in adults, and particularly older adults. But it’s also not true to say that it’s completely benign in kids. Fortunately, pediatric death is a fairly rare event. But when you look at the top 10 causes of death, on an annual basis, this year, we’ve had, depending on whose numbers you use, somewhere between 300 and 600 pediatric deaths from COVID-19 so far. That’s probably an undercount. And that would fit it somewhere in the top 10, somewhere between like No. 6 and No. 9 in terms of causes of death for children.

So the point I’m making, there is that yes, it’s less severe, but it’s still potentially a very severe disease. We’ve seen tens of thousands of hospitalizations already. So we do need a vaccine for children, not just to protect, not just to achieve herd immunity, but also to protect the children themselves.”

“What about "long COVID" – are kids showing extended months of symptoms from the disease?

In kids, we have seen it, but it doesn’t seem to be as common as adults. We’re taking care of a few kids now who are still having symptoms well over a month past their infections. I think, as little as we know about long COVID in adults, we know even less in kids. We really have even less of an understanding of the overall epidemiology of how common it is in kids.”

“Traditionally, people think of children sharing viruses among each other and then giving them to adults. And this seems like that dynamic is almost the inverse.”

Last point its important – go back to school – it’s the teachers giving to kids not the other way.

CNN does a fact check in India – https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/03/india/india-coronavirus-fact-check-intl-hnk-dst/

“During the first wave, about 31% of patients were aged below 30, said V K Paul, the chairman of India’s Covid task force, at a press conference on April 19. During the second wave, that figure has only increased marginally to 32%.

Around 21% of patients were between 30 and 45 during the first wave — that proportion hasn’t changed during the second wave, according to government statistics.

It’s a similar situation when it comes to deaths. Last year, 20% of deaths were people aged 50 or younger. This time, it’s 19%.”

“"There is no overarching excess risk of young people becoming Covid positive," Paul said. "We don’t see a shift in the age prevalence of Covid-19 disease overall in the country."”

“He urged parents not to panic if their children test positive — as long as they are not overweight and have no underlying respiratory problem, most children don’t need any oxygen therapy or hospital admission, he said.”

“Of the 1.7 million people fully vaccinated with India’s homegrown Covaxin vaccine, 695 have tested positive for Covid, said the government-run Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in April. That equates to 0.04%.

Of the 15 million people who received both doses of Covishield — the Indian manufactured AstraZeneca vaccine — 5,014 people have tested positive, or 0.03%.

Until Saturday, India had only rolled out its vaccine to frontline workers and the most vulnerable”

“The term "double mutant" refers to the variant having two spike protein mutations. One of the mutations, called L452R, has also been found in other variants that confer some level of immune resistance. The second mutation, called E484Q, may be similar to another mutation found in the South Africa variant.

However, simply having these mutations does not necessarily mean it is either more transmissible or more lethal — we just don’t have that information yet.”

“There has been little evidence that local remedies can prevent or treat Covid, and medical bodies have refuted several of these practices.”

“The Indian Medical Association (IMA), a national organization of doctors, has also criticized high-profile figures for promoting unproven treatments, saying it is unethical and undermines the need for critical measures like vaccinations.”

“While vaccines offer individuals some degree of protection, India likely would have seen a huge increase in cases anyway due to the phased nature of its vaccination program, said Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton’s Clinical Informatics Research Unit.

Like most other countries, India vaccinated its most vulnerable citizens first, including the elderly and frontline health care workers. But young, fit people who can travel appear to be the biggest spreaders of Covid, he said — "and they would probably be the lowest priority in terms of vaccination."”

Once again its India

India surpasses US 7 Day moving avg max death

US death under 500 – leading state for confirm MI and NY for death

Highest county death in all of US only 27 for Cameron TX

US vaccination slowing down

Covid19mathblog.com

India is the news for covid – vaccine maker CEO sending mix messages – https://www.businessinsider.com/vaccine-manufacturer-fled-india-covid-19-threats-2021-5

“The CEO of the Serum Institute, a vaccine manufacturer in India, said he fled the country because of incessant threats against him.

In an interview with the Times of London, Adar Poonawalla said he went to England to escape threats from people claiming he’s holding up vaccines.”

“The Serum Institute is the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, producing more than 60 million doses of the AstraZeneca and Oxford vaccine every month.”

“At the time of his interview, Poonawalla said he’d stay in England for "an extended time, because I don’t want to go back to that situation."

"Everything falls on my shoulders, but I can’t do it alone," he added.

Hours after the interview was published, Poonawalla backtracked and wrote on Twitter that he’d return to India "in a few days."”

Notes from India indicating obesity playing a role in deaths – https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/is-obesity-adding-to-covid-19-complication-risk-in-young/articleshow/82335004.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst&from=mdr

“According to Dr Suresh Kumar, medical director, Lok Nayak hospital most of the younger Covid-positive people requiring n his hospital were either overweight or obese.”

Now they ae saying no herd immunity – endemic as noted before…. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html

“they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon.”

““The virus is unlikely to go away,” said Rustom Antia, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University in Atlanta. “But we want to do all we can to check that it’s likely to become a mild infection.””

“Yet vaccinations remain the key to transforming the virus into a controllable threat, experts said.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the Biden administration’s top adviser on Covid-19, acknowledged the shift in experts’ thinking.

“People were getting confused and thinking you’re never going to get the infections down until you reach this mystical level of herd immunity, whatever that number is,” he said.””

US is slowly dropping out of the leader in death – its all India now

India just blossomed in confirmation starting end of March and has not abated

FL leads confirmation – CA leads death

Temps are warm in FL – we need to focus on ventilation if they want to slow confirmation down.

County chart is a lot more focus now as numbers fall

Covid19mathblog.com

Censorship! Last week I noted a video on youtube of an interview of Dr. Kory (https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/04/covid-4-23-21/) discussing papers and his belief of the value of ivermectin – most people probably wouldn’t watch it because it was longer than a typical tik tok – he talked a lot about study results and how the WHO operates – very mundane black and white no sensationalism – yet it got censored and is no longer available on youtube! I can see videos designed to fool you and pull on your emotions as perhaps a potential to cause public harm – but a video of scientific discussion SHOULD only bring critical thinking allowing one to develop thought and come up with ones own conclusion. Dr Kory testified to senate committee so I hope this video doesn’t get censored from Vimeo – Hopefully India officials will watch this as I suspect they can churn out quite a bit of ivermectin in their pharma factories – blood will be on peoples hands for this type of censorship – https://vimeo.com/490351508

There is a discussion on social media block 15:35 – reasonable response.

3.7 Billion dosage of ivermectin since 1987!

Here is the NIH summary of Ivermectin – still noted Feb 11th 2021 https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/antiviral-therapy/ivermectin/

“Recommendation

There are insufficient data for the COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel (the Panel) to recommend either for or against the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19. Results from adequately powered, well-designed, and well-conducted clinical trials are needed to provide more specific, evidence-based guidance on the role of ivermectin in the treatment of COVID-19.”

“Monitoring, Adverse Effects, and Drug-Drug Interactions

Ivermectin is generally well tolerated. Adverse effects may include dizziness, pruritis, nausea, or diarrhea.”

This is the key issue for me IF the risk is small (adverse effect and cost) and the reward could be high (life saving) – why not? Should it be no different than taking vitamin C or D when you are sick?

Confirmed per capita in India is rapidly rising – the only good thing is the fatality rate is not rising as rapidly.

India zoomed up

CA revising death down 212

County wide we see the typical areas except LA not showing up on the death chart as they drove -290 death counts down

Covid19mathblog.com

Wow who would have thought vaccines would be a “branded” item – are you an elite with Pfizer really? mRNA the cool kid thing? Wow marketing has gone too far – pharma commercials are designed to catch your emotions – you make the decision not on science/facts….https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/04/pfizer-gang-and-sadness-vaccine-culture/618755/

“Weirder still, one vaccine in particular—from Pfizer—has somehow become the cool vaccine, as well as the vaccine for the rich and stylish. Slate’s Heather Schwedel recently discussed the “Pfizer superiority complex” at length. As one source told her: “One of my cousins got Moderna, and I was like, ‘That’s OK. We need a strong middle class.’” On Twitter, the vaccinated are changing their usernames to reflect their new personal identities: There are Pfizer Princesses and Pfizer Floozies and Pfizer Pfairies and at least one Portrait of a Lady on Pfizer. “Pfizer is what was available when I signed up,” Jagger Blaec, a 33-year-old podcast host told me, “but it’s no coincidence every baddie I know has Pfizer and not Moderna.” Isn’t it a coincidence, though?”

Here is another reason for vaccine – no vaccine no cruise – https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cdc-allow-cruise-ships-us-120635669.html

“The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has delivered some good news for travelers, as cruise ships have been given the green light to resume operations so long as the majority of those on board are vaccinated against COVID-19, according to CBS.

In a letter sent to cruise companies on Wednesday and obtained by CBS, the CDC stated that cruise ships can set sail in U.S. waters by mid-summer so long as 95% of customers and 98% of the crew are vaccinated.”

Israel vaccine rates are very high but the Palestinians are left out – a perfect example of the haves and have not in a small geographical footprint – https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/the-price-israel-will-pay-for-not-vaccinating-palestinians-for-covid-1.9755572

“Sharpening the tension is the fact that Israel is the most vaccinated country in the world. 62 percent of its population is vaccinated, including 90 percent of the at-risk population. As a result, Israel has been almost completely unburdened of coronavirus restrictions for several weeks now. In contrast, only 3.3 percent of the Palestinian Authority’s population has been vaccinated. In recent weeks, Palestinians have been afflicted by a large wave of infections and mortality. The epidemic is raging throughout the West Bank and Gaza, in a reality of poor infrastructure and scarce resources, despite a long list of restrictions on travel and gatherings as well as school closures.”

Let me guess a run on fly squatters and fly poison coming- I suspect most media will leave out the bold at the end of excerpt – fear sells –https://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13071-021-04703-8

“All flies exposed to SARS-CoV-2-spiked media or milk substrates were positive for viral RNA at 4 h and 24 h post-exposure. Infectious virus was isolated only from the flies exposed to virus-spiked milk but not from those exposed to virus-spiked medium. Moreover, viral RNA was detected in environmental samples after contact with SARS-CoV-2 exposed flies, although no infectious virus was recovered from these samples.”

There are a lot flies in India – so perhaps could be some truth. Amazing confirmation from India over 400K in 1 day!

India is making all other outbreaks look like nothing….

CA reported over 400 deaths

Of the 406 deaths in CA – 337 in LA

US vaccination slowing down

Covid19mathblog.com

Always important to review your hypothesis/forecast or you will never know if your critical thinking paths are correct. Last year this blog was calculating the confirmation and deaths that was likely going to be observed from NY – https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/04/covid-4-18-20/

At that time we were reporting 237K confirmed and deaths of 18K in NY – our hypothesis suggested 800K confirmed and deaths likely to range from 24-80K. We used statistical samples from Princess Diamond Cruise Ship noting the 10X density and Germany and Spain data to get the range. Reality we sit at 2 Million confirmed and 52K deaths. Ugh our confirmation was really wrong as people behavior and policies likely exacerbated the situation. The good news the death stayed below our max range but unfortunately we couldn’t be too high. The lack of indoor mitigation will likely continue to produce large confirmations going forward. My suspicion for India besides massive gathering for festival we had increased heat leading to more indoor gatherings.

Pill to treat – will that mean the vaccine loses their emergency status? https://www.vice.com/en/article/g5gbd3/pfizer-at-home-pill-covid-treatment

“Pfizer Inc. announced that it had begun human safety testing of a new pill to treat the coronavirus. If successful, the at-home oral drug could be prescribed and used as a preventative measure or at the first signs of illness from COVID-19: blocking the SARS-CoV2 virus from replicating and preventing patients from becoming more sick.”

“This week, company chairman and CEO Albert Bourla suggested that the Pfizer pill may well be available for public consumption before the end of the year.”

“The active ingredient of the drug, which is currently being called PF-07321332, fights the SARS-CoV2 virus by binding to a viral enzyme called a “protease”, preventing the virus from reproducing in cells and thus blocking it from spreading throughout a patient’s body.”

India again….

India will pass US 7 day max moving average death

US front FL leads confirmation and MI leads death

Interestingly Cook IL leads confirmation – makes sense given the previous weeks cold flurry.

Dispersion of confirmation is quite wide but these are smaller numbers.

Covid19mathblog.com

As noted before one will need to learn the word “breakthrough” as it pertains to covid – those who get infected after vaccination. This article highlights a person dying 1 month later after 2nd dose from Covid – but they do point out an important point – test for antibody after vaccination! https://abc7chicago.com/breakthrough-covid-after-vaccine-death-il/10558121/

“Illinois public health officials began releasing data Wednesday on what it calls "breakthrough" COVID-19 cases, which involve fully-vaccinated people who still get the virus – and sometimes die.

A 75-year-old south suburban Flossmor man is one such case. More than two weeks after his second vaccine dose, Alan Sporn, felt free.”

“While most cases are mild or asymptomatic, officials say at least 97 fully-vaccinated people have been hospitalized and 32 have died in Illinois. That’s out of nearly 4 million people fully vaccinated, or less than 1/100th of 1%.”

“But scientists say the vaccine may be less effective for those with compromised immune systems. Relatives said Sporn had chronic lymphocytic leukemia and before his death, a test showed he had little or no COVID antibodies.

"I wish more people knew about the antibody test," Sporn said. "It’s just one more test, and it’s a safety procedure that would have definitely saved my father’s life."

"There is some movement in that regard to push people to potentially get a test to make sure the vaccine took," Schrantz said.”

Its bad in India – so much so US tells citizens to leave India – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-29/u-s-tells-citizens-to-leave-india-as-covid-19-swamps-hospitals

“The U.S. told its citizens to get out of India as soon as possible as the country’s Covid-19 crisis worsens at an astonishing pace.

In a Level 4 travel advisory — the highest of its kind issued by the State Department — U.S. citizens were told “not to travel to India or to leave as soon as it is safe to do so.” There are 14 direct daily flights between India and the U.S. and other services that connect through Europe, the department said.”

““U.S. citizens are reporting being denied admittance to hospitals in some cities due to a lack of space,” the website of the U.S. Embassy and Consulates in India said in a health alert.”

India continues to lead

The chart speaks for itself – India is in a world of hurt – and it will only get worse….the fatality rate and per capita infection rates have a long ways to go even to get to half the average.

India is overwhelming the world – scary thing starting to dwarf Brazil

US front FL and OK leaders

Numbers are small – LA deaths under 30

Covid19mathblog.com

The inconsistency ….. – https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-probing-link-between-pfizer-shot-and-heart-problem-in-men-under-30/

“Leaked Health Ministry probe raises concerns as 62 cases of myocarditis found out of 5 million vaccinated — most after second dose; 2 deaths, but no direct link established”

“Details from an unpublished Israeli Health Ministry report into the side effects of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine have raised concerns that there could be a link between the second shot and several dozen cases of myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle, particularly in men under 30, Channel 12 reported Friday.”

“The report said that 60 of the patients were treated and released from hospital in good condition. Two of the patients, who were reportedly healthy until receiving the vaccination, including a 22-year-old woman and a 35-year-old man, died.”

“According to the Health Ministry, 5,005,418 second doses have now been given, accounting for nearly 54% of the total population and more than 80% of the eligible population over the age of 16. Just under 58% — 5,374,276 — of all Israelis have had at least one shot.”

This is 10+X worse than the J&J issues – nonetheless I wouldn’t pause this vaccination for that level either – but let’s be consistent? Once again the risk is increased for the people not getting the reward given hospitalization and deaths are extremely low for under 30.

For vaccination per CDC and President Biden speech yesterday you get 2 additional freedoms out 14 from the mask vs. unvaccinated. Enjoy the maskless outdoor with small groups and friends….no indoor and also no discussion on making indoors like outdoors. There is a way to do that and monitor it. Remove/adjust economizers in HVAC add CO2 sensors and monitor for CO2 <1000 ppm. Then you can have an indoor that is essentially outdoor!

Noted several times that our over clean environment e.g. hand sanitizers and bleach will likely lead to unintended consequences – well here is one – more norovirus outbreak – the reason/hypotheis is interesting people stop washing hands with soap and water because of access to hand sanitizers – the hand sanitizers do not work as well on norovirus! Wash your hands the old fashion way! https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/hand-sanitizer-use-gastroenteritis-outbreaks/

“New data released by health authorities in the Australian state of Victoria is reporting a four-fold increase in gastroenteritis outbreaks across childcare facilities over the first few months of 2021, compared to the five-year average. Other countries such as New Zealand and Taiwan have also reported spikes in norovirus outbreaks over recent months.”

““I suspect many of us have become a bit complacent with handwashing and instead are slapping on alcohol-based hand sanitizer when we can, although this is anecdotal,” hypothesizes gastroenterologist Vincent Ho, in a recent article for The Conversation. “However, even though hand sanitizer is convenient, it doesn’t work as well against norovirus as thorough handwashing does.”

Researchers have long suspected alcohol-based hand sanitizers may not be as effective as soap and water handwashing in removing norovirus. A compelling 2011 survey of 161 long-term care facilities in the United States found those facilities using soap and water more often than hand sanitizers experienced less frequent norovirus outbreaks.”

“Peter Collignon, an infectious disease specialist from Australian National University, suggests hand sanitizers do not remove contaminants from soiled hands. He recommends people should not replace thorough hand washing with hand sanitizers, but instead says we should think about cleaning our hands before sterilizing them with alcohol-based solutions.”

India leads confirmation and deaths

Daily death in India likely will surpass US daily max.

WVA revised covid death downward -159

Miami leads confirmation – Wayne MI leads death for the counties in the US

Administered dosage is going down. The 2 doses are holding steady – showing people are going to get the 2nd shot.