Covid19mathblog.com

Interesting times – mask mandates now down to 2-4 yrs old – and they have the knowledge to know this will work? – they should have the knowledge to know that ventilation is key – they should mandate ventilation and have guidelines to monitor CO2 readings https://www.wzzm13.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/mask-mandate-goes-into-effect-for-kids-ages-2-to-4-in-michigan/69-1303ec4e-d5ca-448f-8f30-cbfa11a27165?

“Beginning Monday, April 26, Michigan’s face mask mandate will also apply to children between the ages of two and four. That means they are now required to wear a mask in all public places, including schools, childcare centers and camps.

Earlier this month the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services extended the existing COVID-19 health order and added the new requirement.”

President Biden is expected to announce guidelines today – hopefully will talk about CO2 readings for indoors? – https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/26/politics/biden-cdc-mask-guidance/index.html

“President Joe Biden is expected to announce Tuesday that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has updated its guidance for wearing masks outdoors, three people familiar with the expected announcement said”

“A November review in the Journal of Infectious Diseases found that the odds of viral transmission are 18.7 times greater indoors than out, and less than 10% of Covid-19 infections studied occurred outside. Despite that, several states still have outdoor mask mandates in place.”

Another massive confirmation day for India

Good news Brazil deaths continue to come down but India is rising

NJ revised confirmation downward by 9K

TX counties leading the confirmation and deaths

Now that Wayne county numbers going down they will note their 2-4 yr old mask mandates worked? Note temps rising.

Covid19mathblog.com

Second dosage around 8% are missing it – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/25/business/covid-vaccines-second-doses.html

“More than five million people, or nearly 8 percent of those who got a first shot of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, have missed their second doses, according to the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is more than double the rate among people who got inoculated in the first several weeks of the nationwide vaccine campaign.”

“The reasons vary for why people are missing their second shots. In interviews, some said they feared the side effects, which can include flulike symptoms. Others said they felt that they were sufficiently protected with a single shot.”

““I’m very worried, because you need that second dose,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of the Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory panel.”

I am not as worried as the data notes the first dosage is the bulk of the effectiveness is the first dose. The added second dose boost the effectiveness 10-20% – not insurmountable if you adopted a healthier lifestyle and limited exposure of poorly ventilated areas.

Perhaps forgoing second dose to supply the rest of the world could net out as a benefit to reduce mutation and save more lives.

Reviewing the last 30 days in terms of concentrated infection (per capita) we see Turkey leading with India absent from list largely because their denominator is so large.

The good news the fatality rates are relatively low outside Mexico.

This is a shocking slide to me – to see some countries fatality rates rise. In theory we should be better at treating covid – but this graph is not showing that outside the developed countries US, UK, Italy Japan. Interesting to see Russia fatality rates rising now. Mexico needs some help treating covid. Ivermectin?

India is playing massive catch up to get their confirmation per capita in line with rest of the world

India confirmation way over US peak 7 day moving average

FL leading confirmation and NY leading death

Typical counties of concern – good news MI falling off the list

Covid19mathblog.com

Realizations numbers are just numbers – 6 feet came from droplets falling length – but the problem is the microdroplets and the eventual buildup in the air you are breathing. So if you are 6 feet apart or not and the room is not ventilated it doesn’t matter – https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/mit-researchers-say-youre-no-safer-from-covid-indoors-at-6-feet-or-60-feet-in-new-study.html

“An MIT study showed that people who maintain 60 feet of distance from others indoors are no more protected than if they socially distanced by just 6 feet.

According to the researchers, other calculations of the risk of indoor transmission have omitted too many factors to accurately quantify that risk.

“We need scientific information conveyed to the public in a way that is not just fear mongering but is actually based in analysis,” the author of the study said.”

PLEASE just measure CO2 levels – then you know if your risk is lower/reasonable – I suggest under 1000 ppm. For those that are compromised probably under 700 ppm.

CO2 sensor can be bought on amazon for under $100.

Media and “experts” seem to never be accountable after the fact – https://reason.com/2021/04/21/the-covid-19-disaster-that-did-not-happen-in-texas/?

“When Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, lifted his statewide face mask mandate and his limits on business occupancy in early March, Democrats warned that he was inviting a public health disaster. Yet a month and a half later, newly identified coronavirus cases in Texas have fallen by more than 50 percent, and daily deaths have dropped even more.

Meanwhile, states with stricter COVID-19 regulations have seen spikes in daily new cases. This is not the pattern you would expect to see if government-imposed restrictions played a crucial role in curtailing the pandemic, as advocates of those policies assume.

Abbott’s critics did not mince words. President Joe Biden said the governor’s decision reflected "Neanderthal thinking." Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, said it was "extraordinarily dangerous" and "will kill Texans."”

“COVID-19 surges are happening mainly in states with more legal restrictions than Florida or Texas is imposing. The Washington Post nevertheless says "experts…agree" that rising infection numbers are largely due to "a broad loosening of public health measures, such as mask mandates and limits on indoor dining"—a claim that is tenable only if you ignore all the countervailing examples.”

Personally I believe weather trumps all these quarantine policies therefore policies in general are ineffective in the grand scheme of things – guidelines and educating the public on what they can do to reduce their risk is the best approach – CO2 measurements!

Crazy confirms from India

India surpassed the US

The US at these levels is like tracking the cold/flu – there will always be some. Hopefully MI will warm up and people will open the windows and ventilate.

County view typical cohorts

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Lets start with the vaccine news -J&J coming back soon crazy low numbers – interesting how they wont say how many more if that occurred – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/us/politics/johnson-and-johnson-vaccine.html

“When top federal health officials abruptly decided early last week to recommend a temporary halt in the use of the shot, six women had been reported to have had the disorder, a combination of clots in the brain that led to bleeding and low platelets, components of the blood that normally help to heal wounds.

That was fewer than one in a million recipients of Johnson & Johnson’s shot in the United States. But officials worried that more cases were hidden or could develop shortly as the new vaccine rolled out.

That fear has not materialized. Dr. Marks and Dr. Janet Woodcock, the F.D.A.’s acting commissioner, said the clotting disorder appeared to be nearly as rare as they had hoped it would be when they recommended the pause.

“We’ve now received more cases, but it isn’t an avalanche,” Dr. Woodcock said. “We’re not seeing a big surge, which is a great relief.”

“Dr. Marks declined to specify how many new cases had been confirmed, but said the rate of the disorder was not expected to be higher “in terms of the order of magnitude.””

The word to understand and expect to hear is “breakthrough” cases – they are those who have been vaccinated but still got infected – still very low numbers https://slate.com/technology/2021/04/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-infections-cdc-data.html?

“Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that more than 5,800 out of 75 million fully vaccinated people in the U.S. have been infected with COVID-19. Of these “breakthrough cases,” 396 were hospitalized and 74 people died. The CDC defines a breakthrough case as someone who gets sick, either symptomatically or asymptomatically, 14 or more days after full vaccination. A few headlines about the report implied, rather irresponsibly, that the breakthroughs happened because the vaccines didn’t work. CNN, for instance, put it this way: “So far, 5,800 fully vaccinated people have caught Covid anyway in US, CDC said.””

So what if a treatment was available for covid that was very cheap under $30 and was well understood in terms of side effects AND you know by statistics you are around 10% likely to get infected by covid (per capita confirmation rates) what would you do differently in terms of vaccination? I would still go with J&J but at least I know there is an out. I would not likely have my kids take the vaccine at this time. Also I am less inclined for continuous boosters as I rather focus on my health/lifestyle to maintain a strong immune system….. This video is a must watch to at least understand the potential of bias in WHO and see the tangled web we live in. WHO reports to no one – so no accountability – other than the funds they obtain can and do come with strings. This blog has noted ivermectin many times and do see great risk/reward profile for the drug – and I would hope to be able to use it if infected by covid. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcLnW_3_r2c

If you want a good flavor of the video without this much time commitment go to 40 min and watch for 5 min….skip around to FAQ at the end some interesting points.

Japan declares new state of emergency for Tokyo per covid. In the world chart you cant even see Japan

But by itself you can see they are seeing a rise – not back at their previous winter peak just yet

The scary thing for Japan they are under 1% confirmation per capita which is very low for countries well tested and with covid infections – but that’s generally the Asian countries. S. Korea at 0.2% India now at 1.2%

FL leads confirmation with MI leading deaths

Cook IL leads county – there was a cold shot.

Vaccine dosing continues to rise in the US

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Vaccine news shows Sputnik V likely going to be used worldwide. https://theconversation.com/russian-covid-vaccine-why-more-and-more-countries-are-turning-to-sputnik-v-159158

“While the initial reception of Sputnik V was critical, in February 2021, preliminary results of the phase 3 trials were reported with a 91.6% efficacy rate – the percentage reduction of disease in a vaccinated group of people compared to an unvaccinated group under trial conditions.

The scientific results were clear. A commentary published in the Lancet concluded: “Another vaccine can now join the fight to reduce the incidence of COVID-19.””

“Sputnik V uses a viral-vector platform – which uses a harmless virus to introduce genetic material from the virus that causes COVID to your immune system – like the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines do. It was developed by the Gamaleya National Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, which has also been involved in developing vaccines for Ebola and Mers.

Sputnik V has two key advantages that make its distribution easier: it is among the cheapest COVID-19 vaccines and it can be transported easily. At US$10 (£7) a dose – the same as Johnson & Johnson – Sputnik V is only beaten on cost by the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, which comes in at US$4 a dose. This means Sputnik V is more easily accessible for many countries struggling with the cost of vaccinating their population.”

For perspective Moderna $15 Pfizer ~$20 but 2X(two dose required)….so then when you look at J&J, Sputnik V, and Astrzeneca – the math does not work out for Moderna and Pfizer given their efficacy are nowhere near 2X-4X? Perhaps a perfect reason to find fault with these “old” fashion vaccine.

Vaccine studies show interesting results too bad did not compare J&J and Astrazenecaq12 q1 – https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210421/Antibody-response-induced-by-mRNA-vaccination-differs-from-natural-SARS-CoV-2-infection.aspx

“Researchers tested the antibodies elicited from mRNA vaccination and compared them to those from natural SARS-CoV-2 infection. They found the vaccine did not have antibodies to the virus nucleocapsid protein but had potent RBD antibodies.”

“vaccination induces a more robust antibody response, and even people who have been previously infected may benefit from the vaccine.”

Good news on vaccine effectiveness overtime – https://abc7chicago.com/covid-booster-shot-moderna-pfizer-vaccine/10531053/

“Doctor says there’s ‘good evidence’ COVID-19 booster shots may not be necessary”

“Aside from the promising trial data, Gandhi says all three COVID-19 vaccines are also producing a high level of T cell immunity, which is effectively fighting variants.

"I’m very hopeful that we won’t need these booster vaccines, but if we do, the technology will make this very easy for us to get them in the future if we have outbreaks pop up," she said.”

Bad news which I have started hearing about this side effect more often – interesting all female again – starting to shift the risk/reward profile more to less female taking the vaccination – https://academic.oup.com/rheumatology/advance-article/doi/10.1093/rheumatology/keab345/6225015?searchresult=1

“Herpes zoster following BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccination in patients with autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases”

“The prevalence of HZ was 1.2% (n = 6) in patients with AIIRD compared with none in controls. Six female patients aged 49 ± 11 years with stable AIIRD: rheumatoid arthritis (n = 4), Sjogren’s syndrome (n = 1), and undifferentiated connective disease (n = 1), developed the first in a lifetime event of HZ within a short time after the first vaccine dose in 5 cases and after the second vaccine dose in one case. In the majority of cases, HZ infection was mild, except a case of HZ ophthalmicus, without corneal involvement, in RA patient treated with tofacitinib. There were no cases of disseminated HZ disease or postherpetic neuralgia. All but one patient received antiviral treatment with a resolution of HZ-related symptoms up to 6 weeks. Five patients completed the second vaccine dose without other adverse effects.”

Not sure why in the world this is happening given the data presented with age hospitalization and deaths….why what is the reward?- https://www.insideedition.com/children-participate-in-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-trial-66366

“About 5,000 children are participating in a Pfizer trial involving kids ages 2 to 5.

Children in the U.S., some only months old, are participating in the COVID-19 vaccine trials currently underway. “

India flight restriction very likely – as noted I suspect will see a rise of 6X to get to confirmation per capita to at least 6% https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/covid-sick-people-arrive-in-b-c-from-india-as-trudeau-ponders-restriction

“COVID-infected people arrive in B.C. from India as Trudeau ponders flight restriction

“We are continuing to look at more and I have asked our officials to look carefully at, for example, what the U.K. has done very recently on suspending flights from India,” says prime minister”

Many will start taking credit for reduction of covid including the vaccinations – but in reality it’s the weather. This has always been the reason May was a projected end to covid in the US. Note outliers in chart are likely data revisions not reality. Clearly shows the cold is your enemy- hence colds are colds. In hot humid climates the heat is not your friend…which ultimately always leads to our conclusion it has and always will be about ventilation!

May enough temps high enough but low enough to have open windows.

Brazil and India….ugh….not sure why media continues to present global numbers – they really mean nothing when distribution is a majority in a few countries

FL leads confirmation CA leads death

Miami-Dade leads all counties in confirmation.

Covid19mathblog.com

Limiting travel seems to be the news of choice – https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-will-boost-do-not-travel-advisories-80-world-2021-04-19/

“The U.S. State Department said on Monday it will boost its "Do Not Travel" guidance to about 80% of countries worldwide, citing "unprecedented risk to travelers" from the COVID-19 pandemic.

"This update will result in a significant increase in the number of countries at Level 4: Do Not Travel, to approximately 80% of countries worldwide," the department said in a statement.”

I wonder if the bailout for the airlines comes with some following of the science? I know every time I have flown it has been packed – no spare seats for the last few months – https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7016e1.htm?s_cid=mm7016e1_w

“Based on laboratory modeling of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft, exposures in scenarios in which the middle seat was vacant were reduced by 23% to 57%, compared with full aircraft occupancy, depending upon the model.”

“Physical distancing of airplane passengers, including through policies such as middle seat vacancy, could provide additional reductions in risk for exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on aircraft.”

It is quite ironic how they tell everyone to stay apart but once we get into the airplane its packed. BTW CO2 sensor in IAH stayed below 1000ppm they are doing a great job in ventilation.

This is an informative graph from the economist showing age and risk for both female and male and the additional risk for 1 type of comorbidity. Age the biggest driver. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death

In theory if society followed a risk/reward profile – females SHOULD be less vaccinated than male given risk for females are less than males.

Brazil confirmations are slowing – as they are reaching the 6-10% range of confirmation per capita seen in well tested countries. India has a far ways to go at only 1.1% confirmed per capita.

Japan is the lowest on this list for 7 Day MA confirmation per capita along with UK – yet there are rumors they might be shutting down.

MI needs help – they are becoming the epicenter for the US

Bexar TX (San Antonio) tops the confirmation with Wayne MI second

Covid19mathblog.com

Just to show how bad things are in Brazil – https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-covid-19-response-cost-thousands-lives-says-humanitarian-group-2021-04-15/

“"I never thought that I would be living through something like this after 20 years working in intensive care," Aureo do Carmo Filho, an ICU doctor in Rio, told Reuters.

"Using mechanical restraints without sedatives is bad practice … the patient is submitted to a form of torture," he said.

Seriously ill COVID-19 patients struggling for breath are sedated in order to put them on ventilators, an intrusive practice the body can naturally resist.”

And in India – suspension from flight from India – AND Brazil should probably been done awhile ago – https://www.thedailystar.net/travel/news/hong-kong-suspends-flights-india-after-50-passengers-test-covid-19-positive-2080005

“Hong Kong has suspended all flights connecting to India from April 20 to May 3 amid a surge of Covid-19 cases in India.”

“The decision comes after 50 passengers of two flights of Indian airline Vistara were found positive for Covid-19 when tested upon arrival in Hong Kong this month.”

Once again so slow in catching up with the data – but here is a “study” to state the obvious SARS CoV-2 is airborne transmission and we wasted all the money and time to clean surfaces! – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00869-2/fulltext#

“In conclusion, we propose that it is a scientific error to use lack of direct evidence of SARS-CoV-2 in some air samples to cast doubt on airborne transmission while overlooking the quality and strength of the overall evidence base. There is consistent, strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 spreads by airborne transmission. Although other routes can contribute, we believe that the airborne route is likely to be dominant. The public health community should act accordingly and without further delay.”

Don’t always agree with Bill Maher – but respect he tries to be neutral in terms of party alignment – noted all the concerns we have identified from obesity solutions could have prevented MOST (78%) of deaths and hospitalization. Going OUTSIDE is helpful – likely quarantining inside / gathering inside leads to more confirmation. https://youtu.be/Qp3gy_CLXho

US is falling way down. Brazil and India on top. Note confirmed per capita – it would seem a well tested environment would likely lead to around 5-10% confirmed per capita – this means India has a long ways to go.

India is starting to see a big surge in deaths now

FL leads confirmation and CA leads death

Not many counties showing up in confirmation chart below – may need to lower criteria

Covid19mathblog.com

Mutant variants inevitable in places with significant confirmation e.g. India & Brazil – This is a world issue – a country/state cannot be left to their own devices as the virus spreads https://metro.co.uk/2021/04/16/first-cases-of-double-mutant-covid-from-india-found-in-uk-14418472/

J&J responds confirming the ridiculous low numbers which is causing the suspension of its vaccine – https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2106075?query=featured_home

“On April 13, 2021, in an abundance of caution, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended a pause in vaccination with Ad26.COV2.S in the United States to allow further study of the situation and to provide physicians guidance on the diagnosis, treatment, and reporting of CVST in combination with low platelets.2 These cases were reported among more than 7.2 million persons who had been vaccinated with Ad26.COV2.S globally as of April 14, 2021.3 Thus, the reporting rate is less than 1 in 1,000,000 vaccinations, though it is possible that the cases are underreported.

At this time, evidence is insufficient to establish a causal relationship between these events and the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. CVST is a very rare health condition,4 and thus far, events reported in recipients of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine are occurring within the range of published background incidence (0.2 to 1.57 per 100,000 person-years).4,5 It is important to note that the incidence of CVST associated with low platelets is unknown and is considered by the FDA and the CDC to be extremely low.2”

Scary statements claiming the reduction of covid per lockdown. Note I had always forecasted that May we would see it come to a near end – but based purely on seasonality of common cold and flu. Likely comes back in fall – but the numbers will likely be low by May this is more to do with weather and human behavior than lockdown. https://www.rt.com/op-ed/521179-boris-lauding-lockdowns-another-october/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

““People don’t, I think, appreciate that it’s the lockdown that has been overwhelmingly important in delivering this improvement in the pandemic and in the figures that we’re seeing. And so, yes of course the vaccination programme has helped, but the bulk of the work in reducing the disease has been done by the lockdown.” Boris Johnson”

Brazil and India top the charts

Pics speak for themselves

MI and CA lead the US

County wise Wayne and LA the typical counties…today Harris leads in death but at small numbers relatively speaking.

On a timeline view we see WayneMI and Cook IL are increasing – both have still relatively low avg temps

Covid19mathblog.com

Clotting is the news du jour – well this clotting issue should be known for adenovirus – note 2006 vintage https://ashpublications.org/blood/article/109/7/2832/125650/Adenovirus-induced-thrombocytopenia-the-role-of

Also adenovirus vaccine is WELL established as with most things because of the military – interestingly they used a pill not an injection – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151885/

“The routine administration of the Ad4 and Ad7 vaccines, which began in 1971, resulted in an extremely efficacious, cost-effective, and safe immunization program.19, 336, 337, 338 Initially, the vaccines were administered only during the high-risk winter months. The occurrence of spring and fall outbreaks prompted a modification of the program to administration of the vaccines year-round.19 From 1971 to 1999, except for a period in the 1970s when ineffective vaccines thought to be contaminated with solvent were used,15 there has never been a reported outbreak of ARD caused by Ad4 or Ad7 in U.S. military units that received the vaccines.”

“The excess morbidity caused by ARD and associated costs are of significant concern to the U.S. military. A number of cost-to-benefit analyses have been performed each showing significant benefit in using the vaccines.336, 337, 338 Using an estimated cost for receipt of both vaccines at $150 and using the vaccines year-round in approximately 200,000 trainees per year, Radin and colleagues,303 estimated the U.S. Department of Defense would prevent approximately 6000 to 13,000 clinical adenovirus cases and 1100 to 2700 hospitalizations per year, saving the U.S. government approximately $20 million per year in training and medical costs.”

Using adenovirus as carrier has also been very well established – 2013 paper – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4507798/

“Adenovirus vectors are the most commonly employed vector for cancer gene therapy. They are also used for gene therapy and as vaccines to express foreign antigens. Adenovirus vectors can be replication-defective; certain essential viral genes are deleted and replaced by a cassette that expresses a foreign therapeutic gene. Such vectors are used for gene therapy, as vaccines, and for cancer therapy”

This halting is completely BS in my mind given the numbers – this move is big boost to mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna over AstraZenaca and J&J). At least in this sense the treatment is better than without by multiples as highlighted in this article – https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/04/study-covid-much-more-likely-vaccines-cause-blood-clots

“COVID-19—the actual disease—poses 8 to 10 times the threat of blood clots in the brain than do coronavirus vaccines, a large, non–peer-reviewed study led by University of Oxford researchers finds.”

CVT is happening for mRNA vaccines too! AND at a higher rate! –

“The risk of CVT was 8 to 10 times higher in the 513,284 patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis than in the 489,871 vaccinees and 100 times greater than in the general population. There were only two cases of CVT in the vaccine population, one after vaccination with the Pfizer vaccine and one after receipt of an undetermined mRNA vaccine. Patients younger than 30 years accounted for 30% of coronavirus-related CVT. The rate in the 172,742 flu patients was 0 per 1 million.”

“"The researchers are not claiming that vaccines do not increase the risk at all compared to the risk in people who have not been vaccinated and have also not had COVID-19—but they say the CVT risk in people who have had COVID-19 is about 100 times the risk in the general population," he said. "I do think this puts things into context."”

In the mRNA case we have 2/489,871=0.0004% …..in the recent J&J we have 6/7,000,000=0.00009%…..REALLY?

Ever feel like you get sold something only having to buy more – https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html

“Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said people will “likely” need a third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated.

He also said it’s possible people will need to get vaccinated against the coronavirus annually.”

At what point do you chance it and not vaccinate because treatment options are plenty and effective and the odds of being confirmed is falling?

Treatment options growing – https://www.showbiz411.com/2021/04/15/exclusive-breakthrough-covid-19-red-light-treatment-in-canada-kills-coronavirus-in-nasal-passages-could-have-major-impact-on-entertainment-industry

“Now a clinic in Toronto is treating patients with red light photodynamic therapy that’s having excellent results successfully converting individuals who have tested COVID-19 positive to COVID-19 negative in the the front of the nasal passages.

Ondine Biomedical’s Steriwave treatment is used in the nose, basically, to eradicate COVID-19. It’s not a nasal spray. It’s the use of a red light on nasal passages. It takes a few minutes and is relatively inexpensive. You just sit in a chair, as you would for a COVID-`19 test. From pictures it looks like you’re holding thin fiber cables in each nostril. The light is emitted in the nose.

Their own description: “The technology uses red light—which is safe for human tissues, unlike UV light—to activate a special light-sensitive liquid (called a photosensitizer) that is naturally attracted to germs. The activated photosensitizer destroys the germs physically within moments. This reaction is so quick that germs have no way to resist or adapt. As soon as the light turns off the reaction stops.””

Chile was noted as the most per capita vaccinated in S. America

However they are also now the most confirmed per capita in S. America

Another 200K+ day of confirmation for India. Brazil death still up there over 3.5K

MI leads both categories for the US

It has been cold in MI and IL which could be causing this issue for them. Avg state temp below 50F

Wayne MI and Cook IL showing up in both categories

Covid19mathblog.com

Wow better late than never message – needed a “study” to know what common sense should tell you – but the details are interesting in the study…. https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2021/04/07/bjsports-2021-104080

“We identified 48 440 adult patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis from 1 January 2020 to 21 October 2020, with at least three exercise vital sign measurements from 19 March 2018 to 18 March 2020. We linked each patient’s self-reported physical activity category (consistently inactive=0–10 min/week, some activity=11–149 min/week, consistently meeting guidelines=150+ min/week) to the risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission and death after COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted multivariable logistic regression controlling for demographics and known risk factors to assess whether inactivity was associated with COVID-19 outcomes.

Results Patients with COVID-19 who were consistently inactive had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 2.26; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.83), admission to the ICU (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55) and death (OR 2.49; 95% CI 1.33 to 4.67) due to COVID-19 than patients who were consistently meeting physical activity guidelines. Patients who were consistently inactive also had a greater risk of hospitalisation (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.32), admission to the ICU (OR 1.10; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29) and death (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.60) due to COVID-19 than patients who were doing some physical activity.

Conclusions Consistently meeting physical activity guidelines was strongly associated with a reduced risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes among infected adults. We recommend efforts to promote physical activity be prioritised by public health agencies and incorporated into routine medical care.”

“The population had a mean age of 47.5 years (SD 17.0), with a median of 47 years (IQR 33.0, 60.0) and included 61.9% females (table 1). 6.4% were consistently meeting PA guidelines and 14.4% were consistently inactive, with the remainder falling in the some activity category. White patients were most likely to consistently meet PA guidelines (9.4%), followed by Asian patients (7.3%), Hispanic patients (5.5%) and African-American patients (4.6%). The mean BMI was 31.2 (SD 7.07). 51.4% of the study cohort had no comorbidities while 17.4% had only one, and 31.3% had two or more. The percentage of those who were consistently meeting PA guidelines was lower among those with chronic diseases (including obesity) and those who smoked.”

“This study was conducted at Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), which is an integrated healthcare system that serves approximately 4.7 million residents in Southern California at 15 medical centres.”

The figure below represents “Adjusted risk factors for hospitalisation in patients with COVID-19. BMI, body mass index; ED, emergency department.”

Interesting to see Asian race is the worse – My hypothesis perhaps has to do with living in larger families in CA with small spaces causes higher viral loads which lead to hospitalization.

Being INACTIVE – you might as well have had cancer and be 60 yr old! – do we care about people covid/hospitalization/death? We should use phone tracking to see if each and everyone does an activity? I think it would be interesting to put vaccinations to non-vaccination on this table. Also understand the cost impact/benefits of “forcing” exercise.

Also what if we compound BMI and Activity – would this create a reduced odd equal to vaccination – my hypothesis it would or be very close.

There are only a few days I skip swimming even in the 50 degree water days – and here is a study that shows chlorinated pool water eliminates covid – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9465679/amp/Health-Swimming-pool-water-inactivate-COVID-19-virus-just-30-SECONDS-study-finds.html?

“London-based experts studied how chlorinated pool water affects SARS-CoV-2

They concluded the risk of transmission during swimming is ‘incredibly’ low

Swim England, Water Babies and the Royal Life Saving Society aided the study”

“Chlorinated swimming pool water can inactivate the virus that causes COVID-19 in just 30 seconds, a study found as indoor pools re-open across England this week.

Virologists from Imperial College London studied the impact of varying concentrations of chlorine in water on the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”

Antivaccine for the youth – https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/304124

“93 doctors have signed a joint letter of protest calling to refrain from administering Covid-19 vaccines to children.

In a letter, the contents of which reached Channel 12, submitted this morning, the doctors explained that "There is no room to vaccinate children at this time," and based the call on "the following values – the value of caution, the value of humility", as well as understanding that "haste is from the devil." They also cited "the recognition that we do not understand everything about the virus and the vaccine against it," and "the first commandment of medicine – ‘First do not harm.’"

The letter includes the signatures of Dr. Amir Shachar, director of the emergency room at Laniado Hospital, Dr. Yoav Yehezkeli, an expert in internal medicine and a lecturer at Tel Aviv University, and Dr. Avi Mizrahi, director of the intensive care unit at Kaplan Hospital.”

“They noted that "the increasingly prevalent opinion within the scientific community is that the vaccine cannot lead to herd immunity, therefore there is currently no ‘altruistic’ justification for vaccinating children to protect at-risk populations."”

“"We believe that not even a handful of children should be endangered through mass vaccination against a disease that is not dangerous to them," they wrote. "Furthermore, it cannot be ruled out that the vaccine will have long-term adverse effects that have not yet been discovered at this time, including on growth, reproductive system or fertility. Children should be allowed a quick return to routine; the many tests and broad isolation cycles should be stopped, and no separation between the vaccinated and unvaccinated should be created in the public sphere. Vaccination of at-risk populations should be allowed, and under the almost complete vaccination of this population – it is possible to return to full routine (with periodic adjustments) even in the presence of COVID-19 virus."”

India super spreader event? https://www.cityam.com/millions-bathe-together-in-india-despite-200000-new-covid-cases-a-day/

“This week, around three million Hindus have started to come together in the north Indian city of Haridwar, celebrating an auspicious bathing day in the Ganges river.

There are no restrictions at the week-long event, which started on Monday and takes place every 12 years, and officials acknowledged to local media it was impossible for attendees to maintain social distancing.”

It is really bad in India – deaths are starting to rise now. The positive is that Brazil is flattening out.

200K confirmation in India – amazing they can even do that many test

MI still seeing the most confirmation in the US. CA leads death

Wayne MI and LA are the counties to watch.