Covid19mathblog.com

The new variant of significance coming from Botswana/ S. Africa (B.1.1.529/”Nu”)– not the unvaccinated in the states as I noted many times here. We are likely over vaccinating here when the variants are coming from countries with limited vaccination and sanitization. Many think we can just stop it by vaccinating here in the states – its not going to happen unless we want to isolate from the world. Last report we noted the diminishing returns of vaccinating beyond 60%. – https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/11/covid-11-24-21/

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w

“Researchers spotted B.1.1.529 in genome-sequencing data from Botswana. The variant stood out because it contains more than 30 changes to the spike protein — the SARS-CoV-2 protein that recognizes host cells and is the main target of the body’s immune responses. Many of the changes have been found in variants such as Delta and Alpha and are linked to heightened infectivity and the ability to evade infection-blocking antibodies.

But the variant’s apparent sharp rise in South Africa’s Gauteng province — home to Johannesburg — is also setting off alarm bells. Cases increased rapidly in the province in November, particularly in schools and among young people, according to Lessells. Genome sequencing and other genetic analysis from de Oliveira’s team found that the B.1.1.529 variant was responsible for all of 77 of the virus samples they analysed from Gauteng, collected between 12 and 20 November. Analysis of hundreds more samples are in the works.

The variant harbours a spike mutation that allows it to be detected by genotyping tests that deliver results much more rapidly than genome sequencing,”

“The variant harbours a high number of mutations in regions of the spike protein that antibodies recognize, potentially dampening their potency. “Many mutations we know are problematic, but many more look like they are likely contributing to further evasion,” says Moore. There are even hints from computer modelling that B.1.1.529 could dodge immunity conferred by another component of the immune system called T cells,”

Good news S. Africa is not seeing a super surge relative to last year. But note vaccination rate per capita still under 25%

Looks like NU is in Belgium – https://www.newsweek.com/nu-b-1-1-529-covid-variant-botswana-south-africa-belgium-europe-1653545

Belgium is surging even with a 75% vaccination rate! About to breach last years peak.

So much effort put in vaccine – perhaps we could have overlooked the obvious? Common allergy medicine to treat covid-19 e.g. Benadryl? https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/10/11/1514/htm

“Conclusions: Sigma receptor ligands and drugs with off-target sigma receptor binding characteristics were effective at inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in primate and human cells, representing a potential therapeutic avenue for COVID-19 prevention and treatment.”

“Common antihistamines that exhibit off-target antiviral activity include hydroxyzine, azelastine and diphenhydramine”

“It is clear that multiple sigma receptor ligands exhibit antiviral properties against SARS-CoV-2, but the relative roles of the sigma-1 receptor and sigma-2 receptor agonism and antagonism in modulating antiviral activities are not known.”

“We investigated the ability of diphenhydramine to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 induced cytotoxicity and found an EC50 of 122.0 μg/mL (418 μM; Figure 8A,B), about 7 times higher than that found in the plaque reduction assay, similar to our findings with AZ66. We hypothesized that diphenhydramine could be combined with structurally distinct antiviral agents (binding other receptors, not sigma) to reduce its EC50 for antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2.”

“The combination of diphenhydramine+lactoferrin showed a combined ability to reduce SARS-CoV-2 repication by half that observed for diphenhdydramine alone. The data from the more physiologically relevant human lung cell lines demonstrate the potential for sigma receptor ligands and drugs with off-target effects on sigma receptors to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication.”

“Data suggests that specific drugs that bind SARS-CoV-2, or interacting host proteins, also have the potential to prevent COVID-19. For example, hydroxyzine is a first-generation antihistamine that exhibited off-target binding to the SARS-CoV-2 host receptor ACE2 [37] and the sigma-1 receptor. Usage of hydroxyzine (and structurally related antihistamines diphenhydramine and azelastine) was associated with reduced incidence of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in a population of more than 219,000 individuals in California [8]. Hydroxyzine, diphenhydramine and azelastine exhibited direct antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 infection of Vero E6 cells in vitro. Since antihistamines act as nasal decongestants and cough suppressants, the on- and off-target binding properties of drugs such as diphenhydramine may have broad utility in prevention and treatment of COVID-19.”

“We found that co-administration of 400 μg/mL of lactoferrin with diphenhydramine reduced SARS-CoV-2 induced cytotoxicity and decreased the EC50 (Figure 8C,D). The antiviral enhancement effects of lactoferrin were more apparent at lower, therapeutically relevant concentrations of diphenhydramine (Figure 8E). Combining lactoferrin with diphenhydramine resulted in synergistic effects on antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 8F). Compounds we found effective in Vero E6 were validated in their ability to reduce infectious SARS-CoV-2 production following infection of human lung epithelial cells”

Lactoferrin relatively cheap – https://www.amazon.com/Lactoferrin-300-Capsule-Vegetarian-Capsules/dp/B081HCGZ34/ref=sxin_14_pa_sp_search_thematic_sspa?cv_ct_cx=lactoferrin&keywords=lactoferrin&pd_rd_i=B081HCGZ34&pd_rd_r=ca6ff9ce-9530-45cf-8b06-09e0e13c5405&pd_rd_w=CVPhh&pd_rd_wg=MM9VJ&pf_rd_p=fb401969-1dca-4736-bb17-fd1d356224ef&pf_rd_r=MKQNYA844Q2BMAD1HPRF&qid=1637936371&sr=1-4-a73d1c8c-2fd2-4f19-aa41-2df022bcb241-spons&psc=1&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUEzRTA3RkdRRUFRQzlMJmVuY3J5cHRlZElkPUEwNDAyNTc5MkxCOTlWREFMUUhQQyZlbmNyeXB0ZWRBZElkPUEwMjQ3NTI2M0tZWVlSTTJIMzZNQSZ3aWRnZXROYW1lPXNwX3NlYXJjaF90aGVtYXRpYyZhY3Rpb249Y2xpY2tSZWRpcmVjdCZkb05vdExvZ0NsaWNrPXRydWU=

Diphenhydramine – this is just Benadryl – also relatively cheap.

Charging various levels of insurance will open a pandora’s box – hopefully move beyond just the vaccination status as it looks to be legal to have a spread on insurance per health – https://www.npr.org/2021/11/22/1056238770/covid-delta-unvaccinated-higher-health-insurance-premiums

“As Covid cases surged over the summer, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian took action: Unvaccinated workers would have to pay an extra $200 a month for their health insurance, starting Nov. 1.”

“Now, as Covid cases climb once again, more companies are putting aside carrots and turning to sticks in an effort to protect their workers. From Utah grocery chain Harmons to Wall Street banking giant JPMorgan Chase, companies are telling their unvaccinated workers to get the shots or pay more for health insurance.

In a September survey, the Society for Human Resource Management found less than 1% of organizations had raised health insurance premiums for unvaccinated workers and 13% have considered doing so. It was higher among large companies, where nearly 20% were considering the move. ”

“According to federal law, companies are allowed to charge employees different amounts for health care as long as they do it through a program designed to promote healthy behaviors and prevent disease.

For example, a company may run a wellness program that encourages employees to accumulate a certain number of steps every day or sets targets for BMI, a measurement of body fat based on height and weight. There are also wellness programs aimed at preventing and curbing tobacco use.”

“As part of these programs, companies can offer rewards or penalties for meeting certain targets, such as getting vaccinated. But they must not exceed 30% of the cost of the employee’s health care plan, calculated as the amount paid by the employee and the employer combined. The maximum penalty rises to 50% for wellness programs targeting tobacco use.”

“To ensure that wellness programs do not violate discrimination laws, companies must provide waivers for individuals who have medical reasons for not meeting the stated targets or alternative ways for them to satisfy the requirements.”

I will state unequivocally that a healthy young unvaccinated adult would be superior to an older obese person that is vaccinated in terms of reducing transmission of covid and long term health care cost.

To state the vaccine is 100% safe is not true – therefore it should be a doctor patient consult to conclude the risk/reward for vaccination. – https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.10712?s=09

“Our group has been using the PLUS Cardiac Test (GD Biosciences, Inc, Irvine, CA) a clinically validated measurement of multiple protein biomarkers which generates a score predicting the 5 yr risk (percentage chance) of a new Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS)”

“The score has been measured every 3-6 months in our patient population for 8 years. Recently, with the advent of the mRNA COVID 19 vaccines (vac) by Moderna and Pfizer, dramatic changes in the PULS score became apparent in most patients.This report summarizes those results. A total of 566 pts, aged 28 to 97, M:F ratio 1:1 seen in a preventive cardiology practice had a new PULS test drawn from 2 to 10 weeks following the 2nd COVID shot and was compared to the previous PULS score drawn 3 to 5 months previously pre- shot. Baseline IL-16 increased from 35=/-20 above the norm to 82 =/- 75 above the norm post-vac; sFas increased from 22+/- 15 above the norm to 46=/-24 above the norm post-vac; HGF increased from 42+/-12 above the norm to 86+/-31 above the norm post-vac. These changes resulted in an increase of the PULS score from 11% 5 yr ACS risk to 25% 5 yr ACS risk. At the time of this report, these changes persist for at least 2.5 months post second dose of vac.We conclude that the mRNA vacs dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination.”

Vaccines impact beyond cardio observed and one needs/should consult with your doctor to make the best decision for you – NOT just generically take the vaccine without a true consult – https://academic.oup.com/rheumatology/article/60/SI/SI90/6225015?s=09

“The safety profile of mRNA-based vaccines in patients with autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases (AIIRD) is unknown.”

“Epidemiologic studies on the safety of the mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines in patients with AIIRD are needed to clarify the association between the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination and reactivation of zoster.”

Europe is surging.

Europe includes Russia Below.

Germany is surging

NY is surging now —-its cold now.

NY is over 60% vaccinated. Showing major improvement in fatality rate but this comparing with many deaths from poor nursing home strategies.

The spread is coming to the cold parts of the country without much help from being vaccinated.

Covid19mathblog.com

Data delve today. Besides vaccines the fatality rates SHOULD get better as the medical complex learns better ways to treat/respond to covid. In addition those who passed away diminishes the unhealthy pool given majority of past deaths in poor health – all this should reduce fatality rates.

Comparing week 47 30 day moving average fatality rate this year vs last year does indicate a reduction in fatality rate on a country view – clearly shows a vaccination level of 60% has dropped covid fatalities between 50-87% – with a decent amount 70%. (lower than the vaccines studies but still good) This is a very pro-vaccine chart – however it does show a diminishing return of vaccination level. Vaccinating beyond 60% does not give you much improvement. For a strange reason there is a dip in fatality improvement after 73% vaccinated per capita.

The perplexing anomaly is the US. Are we refusing to get better? Are we reporting deaths differently? On a state level fatality has gotten worse in many states. There is a vaccination rate relationship with fatality rate improvement. Could it be the deaths of the unvaccinated are being skewed as covid whereas the vaccinated are not being classified as covid? As noted above all the reasons beyond vaccines SHOULD improve fatality rate – but we are seriously getting worse results! If we hold this at face value this would certainly indicate more vaccination is needed but at the same time we need to review our medical treatment.

US weekly deaths have been above the “normal” range and this summer was even worse than last year – yet we had the vaccine this year!

Added a column for the 30 day MA fatality rate next to ongoing fatality rate. IF the number is higher this indicates fatality rate is getting worse – many countries observing this.

Placed Russia into the Europe category below – clearly a big surge coming as it gets cold.

US front confirmations showing up in the cold regions as expected.

An 84% vaccinated county the second highest confirmation per capita county over the last seven days

Covid19mathblog.com

Another big win for Pfizer – US consumer gets a $500/pill – https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/biden-administration-buys-10-million-courses-of-pfizer-covid-treatment-pill.html

“President Joe Biden said Thursday the U.S. has bought 10 million courses of Pfizer’s Covid treatment pill Paxlovid.

“My administration is making the necessary preparations now to ensure these treatments will be easily accessible and free,” President Joe Biden said in a statement.

In a clinical trial of high-risk adults, Paxlovid demonstrated 89% efficacy in preventing hospitalization and death when taken within three days of symptom onset, according to Pfizer.

Biden said delivery of the pills will start at the end of this year and continue through 2022.”

FYI Paxlovid is a protease inhibitor. Guess what protease inhibitors are used for? 2017 study – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC5575534/pdf/FEBS-284-2604.pdf

“Proteases play crucial roles at all stages of parasite

development and are therefore potential antimalarial

targets”

Hmm a drug that treats parasite CANT treat a virus – remember that?

A wonderful data treasure comes from the UK – they do test across all categories from vax to unvax to asymptomatic so their sampling is probably superior – https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland?s=09

They pretty much show having been infected is as good as it gets….let the natural immunity go!

Also they show human behavior likely more influential. The group that has money and free time more likely to be active and hence likely to get covid! As expected you stay to yourself not likely to get covid – but you might die from depression?

Norway officially not giving vaccines to 12 and under…. https://www.fhi.no/en/id/vaccines/coronavirus-immunisation-programme/coronavirus-vaccine/#vaccination-of-children-and-adolescents

Children and young people (CYP) is not at risk and seems to hold a lot of burden on them. https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-689684/v1

“SARS-CoV-2 is very rarely fatal in CYP, even among those with underlying comorbidities. These findings are important to guide families, clinicians and policy makers about future shielding and vaccination.”

Time to drink/eat pomegranate – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8114579/

“In agreement with our results, a recent report demonstrated that pomegranate juice was effective in reducing the infectious capacity of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus in VeroE6 cells suggesting an antiviral activity of both viruses (Frank et al., 2020).”

Unfortunately vaccinations are not the end all solution. Our behavior and our environment is more important. We should ventilate we should test all at gatherings not just the unvaccinated. Below shows zero relationship on a state basis for vaccination rates and confirmation per capita. Weather plays the big role – which deduces to behavior. We need to promote getting healthy. It does not take long to get healthy with commitment and consistency one get healthy in few months – note we are almost 2 years into this! Looks like its endemic.

Europe surge very likely a function of it getting cold as talked about here multiple times.

Austria confirmations peaking above last winter peak. https://www.euronews.com/2021/11/19/austria-extends-covid-lockdown-and-makes-vaccination-mandatory-from-february-1 With very high level fully confirmation population it would seem vaccination is not the panacea it was sold as. The “studies” the pharmaceuticals need to show themselves in reality and unfortunately it is not looking good. Even fatality rates are not showing significant improvement (not 90% improvement but closer to 50%) to last year.

Ireland at 76% fully vaccinated still producing higher confirmations than last year. Fatality rates improved around 50%.

On a country basis the last 30 day vs lifetime fatality rates are not significant improvement other than the less developed such as Mexico, Bulgaria, and Egypt. Vaccines are not delivering the extent of the promise from the studies.

Who would have thought Michigan would lead the confirmation? Hint its cold there…

On a county basis vaccination has not much influence on transmission…..almost starting to be accepted but that mantra was so strong for so many months creating a false sense of security….

Big horn leads the confirmation per capita at 99% vaccination rate!

When comparing fatality rate perhaps best to weather normalize? When viewed this way the fatality rates have not really improved….

Covid19mathblog.com

“A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.” Common Sense by Thomas Paine

Unfortunately for society it takes some time to learn from the data beyond just using plain reason and common sense – but time should allow us to look back and realize the reality of the situation.

School closures do not work in mitigating spread of covid. We did this early on in the US county and concluded the same thing – behavior and ventilation would do more impact. The marginal improvement of school closure is not worth the damage. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10178633/School-closures-DONT-work-New-study-finds-Japans-classroom-shutdowns-didnt-stop-spread-Covid.html

“A new study looked at municipalities in Japan that did and did not close schools in spring 2020 during the first Covid wave

Researchers found no statistical difference in the number of cases per 100,000 between areas that did and did not close classrooms

Previous studies have found that Zoom school was bad news for both students’ academic abilities and mental health”

“’School closures reduce children’s learning opportunities, negatively affect their physical and mental development and make it difficult for their parents to leave for work in the daytime,’ co-researcher Dr Kentaro Fukumoto, a professor of polimetrics at Gakushuin University, told The Ashahi Shimbun.

‘The central government should carefully consider whether to ask schools to close in the future.”

“Researchers from City University of Hong Kong and the Institute of Automation at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing found that preventing in-person learning only lowered the number of infections among young people by four percent in New York City.

By comparison, social distancing of the entire population in public places lowered the number of cases and deaths by as much as 50 percent.”

The implications of missing school has a cost as noted last year! We still haven’t learned?- https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/11/covid-11-15-20/ in the article https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2772834 – they noted

“This analysis suggests that 10 days of missed school is associated with a reduction in final educational attainment of 0.0262 (SE, 0.0064) years for boys and 0.0217 years (SE, 0.0062) years for girls.”

” We believe that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has extracted an enormous sacrifice from its youngest citizens to protect the health of its oldest.”

We seem to think vaccination is the key to reduce spread? How many times do we have to display this is not the case. Testing ONLY the unvaccinated gets you a misleading result and ends up in greater spread. False confidence is the most dangerous thing for this type of virus as time spent increases significantly with false confidence – https://summit.news/2021/11/10/fully-vaccinated-choir-concert-ends-in-substantial-covid-19-outbreak/

“A choir concert in Germany that allowed only fully vaccinated or recovered people to attend, banning those who are unvaccinated but could provide a negative test, resulted in a COVID-19 outbreak that infected at least 24 people.

The concert, which took place in Freigericht (Main-Kinzig), operated under 2G rules, meaning only the fully vaccinated and those who can prove they recovered from COVID were allowed to attend.

This meant that people who could literally prove they didn’t have COVID-19 on the door by showing a negative test were barred from entering.”

IF we can’t conclude vaccination in lab setting reduces transmission but in reality it marginally reduces we will misalign the risk/reward. We will be changing the trajectory of a very small subset of youth life and potentially putting to death a very small percentage that had not much reward to begin with in taking the vaccine. Many countries are halting/reducing the vaccine for their youth and here we are pushing it down to the 5 yr olds per its saving society from transmission and the great fear of long covid. IF a school closure setting before vaccines only helped 4% how much will vaccinating youth help? https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4340862

“Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) head Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) said on Wednesday (Nov. 10) that a panel of experts has decided to suspend administering second doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT) COVID vaccine to children 12-17 years old amid concerns it may increase the risk of myocarditis.”

“As for whether COVID-19 vaccines will be approved for children aged 5-11, Chen said the matter will not be considered until the second dose issue with 12 to 17-year-olds is settled.”

So how much is long covid real? Many long-term issues was news for many other health issues before covid. This study tracked down adults which has persistent issues documenting many of these are not a direct result of Covid – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2785832

“Findings In this cross-sectional analysis of 26 823 adults from the population-based French CONSTANCES cohort during the COVID-19 pandemic, self-reported COVID-19 infection was associated with most persistent physical symptoms, whereas laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection was associated only with anosmia. Those associations were independent from self-rated health or depressive symptoms.

Meaning Findings suggest that persistent physical symptoms after COVID-19 infection should not be automatically ascribed to SARS-CoV-2; a complete medical evaluation may be needed to prevent erroneously attributing symptoms to the virus.”

Your health matters even when it comes to vaccination. THE MESSAGE NEEDS TO BE PUSHED HEALTHY LIFESTYLE IS THE BEST SOLUTION/WEAPON AGAINST COVID NOT PHARMACEUTICAL SOLUTIONS! Use the pharma to bridge you while you get healthy but the best defense is a healthy lifestyle – perhaps promote a healthy lifestyle card over vaccination card? This study shows that the less healthy you are the less longevity the vaccine is! Also the sad fact IF you are unhealthy and don’t change you will need boosters at least every year https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=897001005069002124088004121126069077034027008029087048022104121028024073064107120120039058099039050028002126087119080113025074056010074000048106004097001116000123120061086013026023087105097073012069096093118010007019126006088107083119079104110116121111&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE

“Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 infection wanes

progressively over time across all subgroups, but at different rate according to type of

vaccine, and faster for men and older frail individuals. The effectiveness against severe illness

seems to remain high through 9 months, although not for men, older frail individuals, and individuals with comorbidities. This strengthens the evidence-based rationale for

administration of a third booster dose.”

The data is concerning me. In theory the studies and results early on showed that vaccines have reduced deaths. However perhaps it was more seasonal vs. reality. Looking at last year vs. this year on a temp 7day basis the fatality rates are not really improved – outside the initial surge of covid which really should be excluded from the data as there are many factors that happened from poor controls at old home facilities. Viewing the data on a temp basis vs time basis normalizes some of the behavior – you can see our behavior outweighs vaccination level in the first chart below

Covid19mathblog.com

Lots of things have transpired in a week.

We have an official approval and rollout of the vaccine for the youth 5-11 in the US. The risk is a small risk at this time – but so is the reward and potentially even smaller than the risk. If someone told you to buy a stock because it can go up 20% but also can go down 50% – this is not a good trade. I don’t even do trades that are 50/50. Looking at just the numbers, this wouldn’t compel me to have my kids do it. However it looks like certain places if you want to be part of their society it’s a must. The argument would have to be which has been stated “vaccination will reduce transmission and variants and we can “end” this. Society Good!” Unfortunately it’s not showing up in the current data – see below confirmation/capita charts. You are adding a risk element to the youth who has little reward from the vaccine. The magic of vaccination reducing transmission is far off from the reality of the dataset. And the risk, we are only starting to know and hear about more stories of issues. Mind you this is coming from the huge monetary incentivized drug manufactures who are not necessarily the best actors overtime – montage of pharma past not that long ago at least some reason to be a little skeptical- https://twitter.com/eGomes2107/status/1456258603262746633?t=g6U5mFDLhgtPnsuVEUlEmA&s=19

Could they have acted poorly with the vaccine? https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2635

“Covid-19: Researcher blows the whistle on data integrity issues in Pfizer’s vaccine trial”

Covid vaccines are not and should not be for ALL. There is no way the risk/reward profile is the same for everyone – it should be a discussion with patient and doctor. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-021-00329-3

“Here, we report, besides generation of neutralizing antibodies, consistent alterations in hemoglobin A1c, serum sodium and potassium levels, coagulation profiles, and renal functions in healthy volunteers after vaccination with an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Similar changes had also been reported in COVID-19 patients, suggesting that vaccination mimicked an infection. Single-cell mRNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) before and 28 days after the first inoculation also revealed consistent alterations in gene expression of many different immune cell types. Reduction of CD8+ T cells and increase in classic monocyte contents were exemplary. Moreover, scRNA-seq revealed increased NF-κB signaling and reduced type I interferon responses, which were confirmed by biological assays and also had been reported to occur after SARS-CoV-2 infection with aggravating symptoms. Altogether, our study recommends additional caution when vaccinating people with pre-existing clinical conditions, including diabetes, electrolyte imbalances, renal dysfunction, and coagulation disorders.”

We also now have 2 “approved” pill options to treat covid coming! First Merck and now Pfizer! – https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59163899?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=10F2E81E-3D61-11EC-A66C-37B4BDCD475E&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom3=%40BBCBreaking&at_medium=custom7

https://www.axios.com/pfizer-pill-cuts-covid-death-hospitalization-risk-e79e0254-7f41-4b51-a963-fe6db2da4e45.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=health-pfizer

Now these pills are $700+ (IVM ~$3)- it would have been great if they ran beyond a placebo but a group with IVM to end the debate but they did not do that.

With now a pill coming to treat covid – SHOULD you vaccinate a low risk candidate?

Remember the stages of getting covid and the probabilities of each is not 0% nor 100%:

1. You had to get into an opportunity to get it (Effective Quarantine could be 0% chance to get covid, N95, limited time with society etc…keeps it close to 0%)
2. You had to have their immune system impaired enough to get infected and/or spend a lot of time with someone infected
3. You had to have an immune system that cannot compete against it – potential long covid
4. You would go to hospital/doctor visit and see if modern medicine can help (above pills 90% recovery)– potential long covid
5. You would be put on ventilation and has a decent probability of dying but its not 100% nor 0%

Stages of vaccination unlike covid there is a 100% stage – the rest are still probabilities

1. You go and take vaccine 100%
2. Your immune system responds to vaccine and if strong enough reaction will be minor to none – potential long term issues
3. Your body reacts badly needing hospital – potential long term issues
4. Modern medicine will try to fix your issue – potential long term issues
5. ICU – death?

Fate is not part of the vaccination path in some form. Assigning probabilities in each stage is a function of personal health/lifestyle which no one has any idea other than potentially a frank discussion with you and your doctor.

Doctor and Patient discussion passionately described by Dr. Drew Pinsky has been adulterated – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKVr-oUnaU8

I try to create different views in order to communicate what the data is saying. As noted in past – vaccines so far show little impact on transmission and you would be better off educating people of HVAC solutions and/or get healthy to mitigate transmission. Below is a graph with state data over the last 30 days vs. confirmation per capita (transmission of covid metric). You can see vaccination levels have 0 impact on transmission. In meteorologist world they like R^2 used to predict weather is around 0.15-0.2 – and we know how poor those forecast can be. Coincidently the bottom graph is vs. avg temps for the state over last 30 days shows R^2=0.18

We don’t have temperature by country in the DB but you can see some of the colder countries showing up in the far right. Also important to note no visible dispersion between vaccination and transmission.

On county level which better takes account behavior, temperature, population density etc… same result not much dispersion from high vaccinated counties to low counties in terms of transmission.

In VA over the last 30 days we are seeing some bifurcation so perhaps the vaccine is reducing transmission somewhat now – the data could be changing and one needs to be open to change. It could also mean the vaccinated counties have been saturated with confirmations. Still some much lower vaccinated counties are just as good as Fairfax in terms of transmission.

The more we stop pushing vaccines as a society good we can focus on things that will actually be a society good. A re-engineer of our ventilation systems to ACTUALLY reduce transmission. A focus on getting healthy and promoting better lifestyle will be a lot more impactful than coercion of vaccines to the healthy or already infected. The covid vaccine does seem to be more therapeutic than the traditional vaccines of the past – meaning it does a good job with reducing death and hospitalization but not transmission.

Russia is on top!

Russia low vaccination could catch up to them. Fatality rates are higher than last year.

PA is creeping up the leaderboard in the US

Its getting cold in PA

Limited bifurcation in vaccination rate to transmission – looking to be more of weather/human behavior issue…..

Covid19mathblog.com

Double down on the unvaccinated particular those with previous infection– weaponize society with “facts” to force people to do a medical process without regards to their personal choice. CDC latest study notes 5X more likely to get hospitalized AFTER natural immunity! So compelling right…. Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Among Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19–Like Illness with Infection-Induced or mRNA Vaccine-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Immunity — Nine States, January–September 2021 | MMWR (cdc.gov)

Nice and bold conclusion at the top which must makes it VERY definitive …..

Devil is in the details – and the original authors were kind enough to show us the details – and likely a PR person summarized them. Lets start off at the VERY bottom. First I think most people who are thoughtful vaccine skeptics believe in a good volume of people getting vaccinated – the elderly and those with multiple comorbidity as the data shows. The RISK is very great and the REWARD certainly plentiful for those. Yet this study wants to conclude that its 5X for those previously infected. Guess what that 5X is being driven up by the 65+ which should by most people at least those that look at the data should get it.

It is more like 3X for those in the skeptical data camp based on their analysis.

Will 49 people sample going to scare the skeptical healthy people to get a shot that is very leaky with significant limitations? Their own report ONCE again at the bottom list out VERY important points on the difference which was also noted for the stat they pushed previously noted for confirmation of unvaccinated vs. vaccinated https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/10/covid-10-16-21/

Human behavior is likely a big culprit for the largess difference in the stat of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. Example: IF you are vaccinated you get a positive you perhaps might believe and rightly so think you can beat it – the unvaccinated likely much less and goes and gets hospitalized. All these REAL limitations noted at the bottom of the report:

“ The findings in this report are subject to at least seven limitations. First, although this analysis was designed to compare two groups with different sources of immunity, patients might have been misclassified. If SARS-CoV-2 testing occurred outside of network partners’ medical facilities or if vaccinated persons are less likely to seek testing, some positive SARS-CoV-2 test results might have been missed and thus some patients classified as vaccinated and previously uninfected might also have been infected. In addition, despite the high specificity of COVID-19 vaccination status from these data sources, misclassification is possible. Second, the aOR could not be further stratified by time since infection or vaccination because of sparse data and limited ability to control for residual confounding that could be magnified within shorter intervals. The aOR that did not adjust for time might also be subject to residual confounding, particularly related to waning of both types of immunity. Third, selection bias might be possible if vaccination status influences likelihood of testing and if previous infection influences the likelihood of vaccination. Previous work from the VISION network did not identify systematic bias in testing by vaccination status, based on data through May 2021 (1). Fourth, residual confounding might exist because the study did not measure or adjust for behavioral differences between the comparison groups that could modify the risk of the outcome. Fifth, these results might not be generalizable to nonhospitalized patients who have different access to medical care or different health care–seeking behaviors, particularly outside of the nine states covered. Sixth, the statistical model incorporated the use of a weighted propensity score method which is subject to biases in estimates or standard errors if the propensity score model is misspecified. Numerous techniques were used to reduce potential suboptimal specification of the model, including but not limited to including a large set of covariates for machine learning estimation of propensity scores, including covariates in both regression and propensity models, ensuring large sample sizes and checking stability of weights, and conducting secondary analyses to assess robustness of results. Finally, the study assessed COVID-19 mRNA vaccines only; findings should not be generalized to the Janssen vaccine.”

These limitations are not insignificant? Is it worth it to publish vs. work on fixing this and then publishing? Potential loss of credibility vs. an incremental more vaccination or more likely just more hatred developed for those unvaccinated for personal reason. Seriously hospitalization of an individual reasons are from numerous behavior choices more than a vaccination. Going out to party – drinking – smoking – mask? – eating poorly – where does vaccination rank in control behavior? Do we want to be like the Chinese? Being unvaccinated DOES NOT beyond a reasonable metric increase risk for others based on the current data. Overtime this maybe proven wrong but the data is certainly more compelling than pundits who have been wrong consistently and lab metrics that don’t play out in reality.

It is a fact the US system of testing is limited and focused on symptomatic patients and volunteered testing. In the UK they test beyond symptomatic. They released this study which was yearlong of tracking – Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study – The Lancet Infectious Diseases

“Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. Host–virus interactions early in infection may shape the entire viral trajectory.”

“Although vaccines remain highly effective at preventing severe disease and deaths from COVID-19, our findings suggest that vaccination is not sufficient to prevent transmission of the delta variant in household settings with prolonged exposures. Our findings highlight the importance of community studies to characterise the epidemiological phenotype of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in increasingly highly vaccinated populations. Continued public health and social measures to curb transmission of the delta variant remain important, even in vaccinated individuals.”

The more we can move on from vaccines being the ONLY answer we can solve this issue from therapeutics to mechanical solutions (HVAC modifications). AND MOST IMPORTANTLY a message to society to get healthy – a message to policy makers to fix our food system to reduce promotion of poor food choices. The data is clear being healthy pays!

Health for sure is clear in the disparity in covid deaths comparing countries. Yes African countries are not as old but they are healthy. Japan and S Korea are healthier too.

Latest in the news is Fluvoxamine – which has been noted here before but now is finally catching some headlines – if we reduce our vaccine rhetoric perhaps some of these can come to fruition – Effect of early treatment with fluvoxamine on risk of emergency care and hospitalisation among patients with COVID-19: the TOGETHER randomised, platform clinical trial – The Lancet Global Health

“ Treatment with fluvoxamine (100 mg twice daily for 10 days) among high-risk outpatients with early diagnosed COVID-19 reduced the need for hospitalisation defined as retention in a COVID-19 emergency setting or transfer to a tertiary hospital.”

It is cheap and available. It would seem like it could do better than the vaccines? The mechanics I have read is that drugs that facilitate serotonin transmission can

attenuate the cytokine storm associated with COVID-19 (fluoxetine, citalopram, sertraline, paroxetine, fluvoxamine,etc…) they noted two mechanisms including the above.

“The underlying mechanism of fluvoxamine for COVID-19 disease remains uncertain. Although hypotheses include several potential mechanisms,4 the main reason for the initial study of fluvoxamine as a treatment of COVID-19 was its anti-inflammatory action through activation of the S1R.14 S1R is an endoplasmic reticulum (ER) chaperone membrane protein involved in many cellular functions,15 including regulation of ER stress response–unfolded protein response and regulation of cytokine production in response to inflammatory triggers.16 In the presence of fluvoxamine, S1R might prevent the ER stress sensor inositol-requiring enzyme 1α from splicing and activating the mRNA of X-box protein 1, a key regulator of cytokine production including interleukins IL-6, IL-8, IL-1β, and IL-12. In a 2019 study by Rosen and colleagues, fluvoxamine showed benefit in preclinical models of inflammation and sepsis through this mechanism.16

A second mechanism might be fluvoxamine’s antiplatelet activity.17 SSRIs can prevent loading of serotonin into platelets and inhibit platelet activation, which might reduce the risk of thrombosis, and these antiplatelet effects can be cardioprotective. Finally, another potential mechanism of action might be related to the effect of fluvoxamine in increasing plasma levels of melatonin.16 In vitro and animal studies are needed to help clarify the most probable mechanism(s). Biomarker studies included as part of future randomised controlled trials might also help to clarify mechanisms.”

Temperature – which then influences behaviors matter – winter is coming….covid numbers will rise again….The northern regions are not very populated so the overall numbers wont be large now.

There is no magic Temp as every state citizen has relative temperature that changes their behavior. The consistent temp is when the virus outershell hardens and that is around 60F. Whether than you bunker down in your house but still have parties or go shopping that’s an unknown which causes noise.

Certainly seems more Northern hemisphere is showing up on the top of the list now…

If only vaccinations really worked to stop the spread….

Ohio is moving up recent cold shot…

Still no definitive proof in data vaccination impacts transmission much….the weather and our behavior is the key….ventillation!

Covid19mathblog.com

The big news is the FDA advisors voted to approve Pfizer vaccine for 5-11 yr old 17-0 with one abstention https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/26/health/covid-19-young-kids-vaccine-fda-discussion/index.html

“Pfizer has cut its vaccine to one-third of the adult dose for the children under 12 and said clinical trials showed this lower dose protected children well against symptomatic infection. The hope is it will cause fewer side-effects.”

“"We’ve identified a lower dose which we expect is going to decrease the frequency of the rare side effect of myocarditos," said Dr. Arnold Monto, chairman of the committee an a professor of epidemiology at the University of Michgan.

"I am just worried that if we say yes, then the states are going to mandate administration of this vaccine for children to go to school and I do not agree with that," said Dr. Cody Meissner, a professor of pediatrics at Tufts University School of Medicine. "I think that would be an error at this time."

But Dr. Peter Marks, who heads the FDA’s vaccine arm, the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said that was unlikely.”

Here is release with the abstained persons notes – https://www.aappublications.org/news/2021/10/26/fda-pfizer-covid-vaccine-children-102621

“Michael G. Kurilla, M.D., Ph.D., director of the Division of Clinical Innovation at the National Center for Advancing Translation Sciences, abstained from the vote saying the immunobridging studies did not convince him the vaccine would provide long-term protection, and he feels children who have been infected don’t need two doses.

“I think the idea of doing under an emergency use authorization, two doses for everybody without any flexibility around this, I think is just not going to go over very well and I don’t think it’s going to give the health care community the options and parents the options to choose what’s best for their children,” he said.

Some vaccine committee members expressed a preference for limiting the vaccine to children with high-risk conditions, which CDC data showed were present in about two-thirds of hospitalized children ages 5-11 years. However, the committee was asked to vote only on whether the benefits outweigh the risks for all children. The CDC will have more latitude to determine whether the vaccine is recommended for a smaller group of children.”

The above are keypoints to understand. Adult vaccines are 3X more voluminous. We know some 11 yr olds are larger than some adults. We also know adults vary greatly in size – perhaps the vaccine effects are important to small young adults too? Should vaccines not be size specific – perhaps this is causing the efficacy to drop per large obese adults and perhaps additional side effects because of smaller fit adults taking too much of the vaccine?

The wishful thinking this will not be a mandate – is very pathetic. Clearly it will be mandated as people naturally want easy solutions to fix complicated problems.

What are we trying to fix with vaccinating the youth? Deaths and Hospitalization – this is not as a result of this age group – the death impact for this will be super minimal with deaths not even 1% of all covid deaths – ages 5-11 = 166 . https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

Hospitalization for this age group for covid very low at estimates of 0.1%-2% AND noted above 2/3 of hospitalized were those at high-risk to begin with https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

Could it be to minimize transmission? Once again multiple studies have indicated youths are not the cause of transmission in schools https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28753/w28753.pdf

Best for the child long-term immunity? – no studies have shown they are better off getting covid https://insight.jci.org/articles/view/150909

Help minimize variants? Well perhaps it could actually cause variants – note 2015 study – https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198

“Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population.”

In addition, we do have history and history has shown the variants of concern are Delta from India and Lambda from Peru – what do they have in common low vaccination and poor hygiene (limited plumbing!).

Imagine if vaccinating the youth and offering boosters to the healthy young takes away from the potential to vaccinate an elderly adult in one of these types of country. Its not imagine – it is and will happen. We have finite manufacturing – if we continue to vaccinate those with VERY little impact we are essentially valuing our youth/fit adults at over 1000+X than an elderly person in another country.

Assuming we are that selfish – imagine if we did help those countries in the beginning from improving vaccinations and hygiene and that Delta was never created – imagine how many lives could have been saved.

Human behavior has been seriously discounted in understanding how this virus is being transmitted. So many people showing studies show this lab result showed this level of viral load etc…but all that is minor compared to the human behavior aspect. Lower viral load may increase your odds of not transmitting but at some point in time in a room enclosed you will likely transmit Delta. You give people a “passport” what do you think the behavior becomes – do you think they get concern about a sniffle – do they test often? – Being unvaccinated will likely make you more cautious. I for one had more bravado after my vaccination – perhaps leading to my breakthrough.

Here is a perfect article highlighting behavior – https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/leaked-government-report-finds-vaccine-passports-could-actually-increase-spread-covid

“According to the report, compiled by the the Department of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport [DCMS], introducing the scheme could actually have the opposite intended effect.

“If certification displaces some fans from structured and well ventilated sports stadia, this could lead to them attending unstructured and poorly ventilated pubs instead, where they will have access to more alcohol than if there were in the stadia,” states the report.

“Evidence from the Euros showed spikes in cases associated with pubs even when England were playing abroad.””

“Another example of how vaccine passports are largely useless is the fact that providing a negative test is no longer being offered as an option, despite the fact that the vaccinated can still transmit the virus.

As we highlight in the video below, people visiting nightclubs in Ireland had to be vaccinated to get in, but were then told that masks were not required while dancing.”

In the end these behaviors have one thing in common – an environment that allowed transmission – why not focus on fixing the environment vs the person? Ventilation!

Collateral damage from policy – https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/10/26/1046432435/ers-are-now-swamped-with-seriously-ill-patients-but-most-dont-even-have-covid

“Even in parts of the country where COVID-19 isn’t overwhelming the health system, patients are showing up to the ER sicker than they were before the pandemic, their diseases more advanced and in need of more complicated care.”

The dirt is coming – we all have skeletons some more than others – perhaps all have shades of truths but certainly not as angelic as the media likes to make him. I am not noting for the sake of bashing but the fact to understand that perhaps some shady things did happen at Wuhan Institute of Virology that could have cause this issue and as a result of the US funding – not just a China rogue scientist. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/10/wasnt-just-beagles-monkeys-faucis-nih-also-funded-medical-experiments-aids-orphans-ny-city/

“Dr. Fauci funded a study in Tunisia where beagle dogs were eaten alive by parasite-infected flies.”

“Dr. Fauci also spent over $16 million in taxpayer funds on disturbing “toxic brain injection” experiments on monkeys in 2018.”

“Dr. Fauci was more recently caught funding gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China laboratory blamed for the production and leak of the coronavirus.

Fauci lied about his funding of the lab under oath numerous times.”

“Dr. Fauci’s NIH was also caught funding experiments on AIDS orphans at a New York City hospital in 2004.”

Vaccination per capita vs confirmation per capita – country basis – note Singapore

Singapore had a lot of praise in the beginning for its strict lockdown – now its feeling some pain even though vaccination rates are very high.

Russia showing a strong second in deaths. UK confirmation actually higher than Russia – but they do in fact test more and do test asymptomatic people.

TX leading both confirmations and death but this will start changing.

On a per capita basis you are seeing the north show up

Covid19mathblog.com

Everyone celebrating the decline in confirmation in the country – but it was predictable…..if you understand how the transmission is occurring. Unfortunately mask and vaccination are not the end all – if it was we wouldn’t have been able to predict this decline in confirmation. It is our lifestyle and our behaviors which out do any reduction in probability (e.g. vaccination, mask, etc..). Let’s look at Florida with its recent drop in confirmation yet still having no mask mandates – and slowing vaccination rates. What could be contributing to this decline? Lets get off the political line and look at the reality – its temperature and the corresponding human behavior response to that temperature.

I know it’s the message that vaccine is the answer BUT it did not do much for transmission – as the county data in FL does not have a big bifurcation in counties with lots of vaccinations. There is some split in the data but certainly not worth making it as the number 1 priority to reduce transmission.

The number one policy should be confirmed and then implement guidelines to improve HVAC in order to reduce transmission. The following shows the avg FL temp vs. confirmation on weekly metric for the last two years – do you see a pattern?

For all of you celebrating the achievements of NY and CA for all their strict rules and regulations – you have been fooled by not looking at it seasonal. So many times I have noted this over and over the physics of the virus leads to Flu/Cold seasons (https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/10/covid-10-13-21/) – the outer lipid shell of the virus hardens around 60F making it more durable – this happens in the AC units set at 75! Winter is coming we need to fix this ASAP and stop arguing over policy/mandates that don’t do much to control transmission. Vaccines do a good job for deaths and hospitalization for the elder and multiple comorbidity people – it is not a one size fits all! HVAC modification will be a one size fits all solution!

On the news front – continued issues with Fauci statements. This article highlights the recent uncovering – https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/10/nih-admits-funding-risky-virus-research-in-wuhan

Best quote from the article:

““If I applied for funding to paint Central Park purple and was denied, but then a year later we woke up to find Central Park painted purple, I’d be a prime suspect,” said Jamie Metzl, a former executive vice president of the Asia Society, who sits on the World Health Organization’s advisory committee on human genome editing and has been calling for a transparent investigation into COVID-19’s origins.”

Russia has been increasing in confirmations and deaths – (getting colder in Russia?)

Russia vaccination rates are increasing as confirmations and death increasing.

Death are lagging confirmations in the states. CA confirmations top the country as FL drops big. (Colder?)

Its not a coincidence the highest confirmations per capita are now in the North part of the country. We need to stop with this mask and vaccine arguments and move to real solutions. 200K deaths are likely going to occur this winter per covid unless we change our trajectory to reduce transmission – noted on https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/09/covid-9-1-21-update/

Covid19mathblog.com

“Ends justify the means?”

It looks like the media and the powers at be want to promote the stat which is very effective IF it was true to their conclusions….It was discussed in the last blog Covid 10/14/21 | COVID 19 Information Page (covid19mathblog.com)

I will try to simplify the concern. Here is the CDC new data page and their new promotion – CDC COVID Data Tracker

They clearly state the following screenshot:

You can see the CDC change the message but the mass media has not caught on to it. Before they said:

Note the very key words they added – “Greater risk of TESTING positive”

I will not refute the death part – it’s the first part which is being used to push the concept that Unvaccinated people are causing transmission. From this dataset one CANNOT conclude that. The changed wording is correct but its too late. The act of going to take a test is not uniformed in society. As noted before the dataset is essentially confirmation data which is consistent with John Hopkins data we pull. Confirmations are not a statistical poll (testing a broad sample allowing extrapolation). It is people essentially believing they are sick and asking for a test and/or patients coming into hospital for procedure. If you are asymptomatic what are the odds you would get tested. What are the odds if you are vaccinated and you have the sniffles you will go get tested compared to being unvaccinated? The vaccine is making more people asymptomatic and/or mild symptoms – this is a fact. This will by the very nature lead to more confirmed cases being unvaccinated. What does that tell you – and how is it worth promoting this measure?

Anecdotally I know those who come into to do a procedure in the Texas medical system that are vaccinated are not tested but those that are unvaccinated are – there in itself is an issue IF testing is not being uniformed.

Why push this false narrative? Is the end so worth the mean? Losing trust and credibility? Lets just do a study to prove the risk/reward for young healthy individuals show significant benefit. Lets prove unvaccinated people are really transmitting – or admit that the premise was wrong and focus on a real solution to mitigate transmission – HVAC modification guidelines would be my choice.

The damage is done promoting a false narrative and they are doubling down on the stat by now pushing it. Here is the media just biting the bait –

Unvaccinated Adults 11 Times More Likely to Die from Covid-19: CDC – Rolling Stone

“The CDC also found that unvaccinated adults faced a six times as likely to contract the virus than fully vaccinated adults. The data marks the first time the CDC has released information about how Covid-19 risks can differ depending on vaccination status.”

First sentence NOT true – unvaccinated do not face 6X odds – perhaps 6 times more likely to be TESTED and CONFIRMED from those that go get a test! ZERO knowledge gained on whether being unvaccinated has resulted in less or more transmission.

CDC data: Unvaccinated 11 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than fully vaccinated | TheHill

“In addition, the data show that unvaccinated people have a six times higher chance of testing positive for COVID-19 than fully vaccinated people do.”

ITS not a higher chance of testing positive relative to society as they try to allude to – it’s a higher chance that an unvaccinated would go get tested within their testing pool – it says nothing about vaccinated chance of testing positive! In fact one could argue being unvaccinated could be better as they are more likely going to get tested and quarantine vs a vaccinated person. We need more testing IF you really want to go to zero – allowing vaccinated people to wandering around and spreading the disease is more deadly than an unvaccinated person showing symptoms right away and getting tested. This reminds me of the MTBE issue. MTBE a gasoline additive was banned largely because it is insoluble in water and people could taste it in their drinking water. So they banned it! – but what was the root of the problem? – the tanks are leaking – go fix that! Ignorance is bliss.

The best testing is done for professional sports teams – you can see being vaccinated is not reducing confirmations! – Kliff Kingsbury tests positive for COVID-19, will miss Cardinals game (usatoday.com)

You can also see it the county data as noted all the time! The math doesn’t add up if their stat could be extrapolated to society – we should see significant differences in county transmission data IF the data was really 5-6X…..think about it!

Also on the sports front some more sad data points – NBA Player Got Blood Clots From COVID Vaccine that Ends His Season – NBA Told Him to Keep It Quiet (VIDEO) (thegatewaypundit.com)

Covid19mathblog.com

A worthwhile podcast Joe Rogan and Dr. Sanjay Gupta – not all covid – but a good discussion on risk/reward – including a discussion on Cannabis. https://open.spotify.com/episode/6rAgS1KiUvLRNP4HfUePpA?si=izgzzVthSPao8dCxwzCUCA

The one note Dr. Gupta brought up multiple times and justified the social need to get the covid vaccination – “Unvaccinated 8 Times more likely to get INFECTION”. So I spent awhile searching for this study as it does makes sense for a social requirement for getting vaccinated if true.

The study is done by the CDC Vaccine Effectiveness Team – here it is: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm?s_cid=mm7037e1_w#T1_down

First to note and hopefully someone tells Dr. Gupta – the report conclusion is 5X not 8X – perhaps the original document is 8X but this is the study – https://twitter.com/annezinkmd/status/1424229063460212738

There is no link to the data – and I have found no place to show the breakout of the confirmation between vaccinated or not vaccinated. However by the 13 states I could go through the data I had and extrapolate from the per capita vaccination I had for each state. The data April 4th- June 19th is quite irrelevant given the level of vaccination was extremely low in April with corresponding increasing vaccination rate.

So the data from June 20-July 17th in their table shows the following with the first column represent incidences reported that are unvaccinated and the next vaccinated. The total 101633/22809 = 4.45X – so they round up to 5X

Since I don’t have their vaccinated and unvaccinated data and are suspect they do have it too in the detail needed – I computed the daily vaccinated/unvaccinated using the vaccinated per capita which I have daily. I also use a 14 day lag on the vaccinated rate given one doesn’t qualify vaccinated without a 14 day spread.

My total confirmed case in my data series is 123,161 – not to bad vs. 124,442 from the above table from the report. Based on state by state and 14 day lag the total incidence of vaccinated and unvaccinated ASSUMING natural even distribution with the separation purely based on a level of unvaccinated started low and confirmation slowing down in the later part the total vaccinated incidence comes out 45K vs. unvaccinated 78K – so this is 1.7X – so naturally there was already supposed to be a spread of incidence of more unvaccinated just by shear population that had not gotten vaccinated. So perhaps in effect IF the logic held true the normalized impact of the unvaccinated vs. vaccinated is not 5X but 4.45-1.73= 2.7 – so perhaps the statement can be made if you are unvaccinated you are 2.7X more likely to get a CONFIRMATION of covid. I changed the word from INFECTION TO CONFIRMATION as this is a slight of hand trick they have played. You NEED to take a test to be confirmed and shown as an infection as the number of confirmed case is equivalent to their definition of infection. HOWEVER think about it IF you have taken the vaccine and are infected and are asymptomatic what are the ODDS you would go take a test to be confirmed!

In addition IF their statement was true then how come the more vaccinated counties don’t clearly show a delineation from the less vaccinated – I mean its as high as 8X-2.7X more likely to be confirmed IF you are unvaccinated per their report.

CONCLUSION – ITS NOT TRUE – FAKE STAT of reference. IF the vaccinated are more asymptomatic (TRUE STATEMENT – NOTED BY SEVERAL STUDIES) then when they are infected the odds of them going to take a test to confirm covid is likely approaching 0. They cannot make a claim that unvaccinated is ANY multiple more likely to be infected base on this analysis. They can make a claim the unvaccinated are likely to get tested and be confirmed at 2-5X more than a vaccinated person – but this means nothing in terms of infection and transmission. If you don’t see that you are likely in confirmation bias land to try to prove the point vaccination reduces transmission and hence everyone should get vaccinated. The data is clear it does not and the logic to conclude that is wrong per the above analysis. Perhaps another study may prove this to be the case – but certainly not the above report method.