Covid19mathblog.com

Now the blame wars have begun….China is now noting the leak from the US starting in summer of 2019 at Ft. Derrick – http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-07/26/c_1310087442.htm

“Recent studies have shown that the United States and other countries showed signs of the virus and infections before the outbreak in China. At least five states in the United States alone had earlier COVID-19 infections before the first officially reported confirmed case in the United States.

The United States is the country that saw the most infections and deaths in the pandemic and whose fight against the outbreak has a flurry of unanswered questions. But the origin-tracing work in the United States was inadequate.

In June and July 2019, U.S. media started to report issues involving Fort Detrick. By the end of July, two retirement communities near the base witnessed outbreaks of pneumonia of unknown cause. In September, vaping-related lung illness cases doubled in Maryland where Fort Detrick is located.

Despite facing mounting doubts, the United States has continued to refuse to release critical information regarding the base’s closure under the pretext of "national security."

Instead, the United States has tried to stigmatize China’s concerted and effective anti-virus measures, despite the fact that China did its best to organize and coordinate with relevant parties to meet the needs of the World Health Organization (WHO) expert team who visited Wuhan in central China to carry out the virus-source tracing and relevant global research jointly with Chinese experts.

The expert group concluded that the so-called "lab leak" theory is "extremely unlikely" and recommended conducting further research around earlier cases globally.”

Natural immunity approach seems to be India choice – https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/21/covid-19-antibodies-detected-in-67-of-indias-population?__twitter_impression=true

“Covid-19 antibodies have been detected in 67% of the population of India, according to a new survey, indicating how widely the virus spread through communities during the second wave.

India’s fourth national sero-survey, which examines the prevalence of Covid-19 antibodies either through infection or vaccination, found that 67.6% of the population of more than 1.3 billion has coronavirus antibodies.

The survey also demonstrated the slow pace of India’s vaccination programme. Of those surveyed, 62.2% had not been vaccinated, 24.8% had taken one dose and 13% were fully vaccinated.”

Becareful of noting the CDC breakthrough stats they ignore the average breakthrough AND ONLY TRACK hospitalization breakthrough – https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

“As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause.”

Collateral damage of lockdowns – https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fears-grow-of-looming-cancer-crisis-3k7mv8876

“Fears are growing of an emerging cancer crisis after new figures showed more than 300,000 people had missed checks for the disease since the start of the pandemic.

In the 12 months to March, 304,555 fewer patients in England were given an urgent referral to a hospital by their GP. The number referred for breast cancer checks fell by more than 20,000 in 2020-21.”

We added a new dataset – county level age bucket specified population percent vaccinated. (Not available for TX ad CA). If we look at the data by counties we can see several counties that have vaccinated a majority of the population. Viewing it by state creates a manageable view and also normalizes some behaviors given roughly similar weather in each counties and cultural behaviors. The big hypothesis is vaccination DOES NOT stop/reduce spread / confirmation – and given that offers little to the youth who do not show much if any death issues AND limited long covid. We should see a significant death improvement as more elder are vaccinated.

The hypothesis is not clear cut that vaccination does not stop/reduce spread given still only a few months of data and in the summer time not a full blown wave. Some states do show a picture that there is a reduction. However we do see states where it is not clear and we do see some interesting outliers in the data. The second hypothesis is more consistent. In some states its clear more vaccination reduced deaths – some not clear at all.

AZ Indicates a false hypothesis for 1 as more vac limited some spread. Deaths look lower as more vaccinated

CO – Indicated true hypothesis as more vac is not leading to a reduction in spread. A slight improvement in deaths as more vaccination. Interesting to note the low vaccination rate in CO relative to other states. They are one of the more fit states so perhaps they get a pass on not vaccinating?

FL – Indicates a true hypothesis no stop of spread even with increasing vaccination. There is a decline in deaths as more vaccination.

GA we have a very strange outlier – Chattahoochee is 100% vaccinated but observing the highest confirmation and not a low death per capita either.

IL seems to have an outlier Carroll county with one of the highest vaccine rate but still high spread and high death.

MD shows false hypothesis as more vaccination has lead to a trend of reduce spread AND lead to reduction of death.

MO is indicating higher vaccination leading toe lower spread. Deaths at the highly vaccinated counties are lower.

NY does show more vaccinated region less spread. Deaths are also declining.

OH is not clear that vaccination reduces spread – but indicates reduction on death.

PA – Indication false hypothesis for 1 as more vac lead to lower spread but the death response is all over the place.

SC not showing higher vaccination leads to less spread. Does show less death.

VA does not show much of anything in both spread and deaths – data is all over the place.

WY shows high vaccinate rate in Teton – however not lowest spread or lowest death.

We will continue to monitor this and see IF vaccination can assist in reducing spread. There is another element of behavior perhaps those areas that get vaccinated more like to wear mask? I need mask wearability by county…..

Indonesia leads in death followed by Ecuador.

Cuba confirmations are growing quite high.

FL leads death and confirmation even though they have many counties with over 80% 65 and older vaccinated.

LA leads in confirmation even though over 63.5% above 18 are vaccinated.

Covid19mathblog.com

Personal update – fever broke Fri night. Yesterday first day since last Sunday without fever and extreme weakness feeling. 48 hours of Ivermectin or was it just the body naturally winning – who knows but the risk/reward was there.

I kept reading all throughout my sickness – largely to keep my mind strong given all the reports of losing my IQ. Anyway the study has some serious flaws in it so I wouldn’t believe the hype – else I did lose some IQ and don’t know how to read tables…. Here is the study they are all siting to fear you from getting covid – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext#seccesectitle0013

“Findings

People who had recovered from COVID-19, including those no longer reporting symptoms, exhibited significant cognitive deficits versus controls when controlling for age, gender, education level, income, racial-ethnic group, pre-existing medical disorders, tiredness, depression and anxiety. The deficits were of substantial effect size for people who had been hospitalised (N = 192), but also for non-hospitalised cases who had biological confirmation of COVID-19 infection (N = 326). Analysing markers of premorbid intelligence did not support these differences being present prior to infection. Finer grained analysis of performance across sub-tests supported the hypothesis that COVID-19 has a multi-domain impact on human cognition.”

Most important is to understand their sample they use. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl0002&pii=S2589-5370%2821%2900324-2

Must be an England thing but I cant see this as being a standard population sample….

Group Not ill Ill without respiratory symptoms No home assistance Home assistance Hospitalised No ventilator Hospitalised +Ventilator

Lung conditions e.g., asthma 0.097 0.071 0.212 0.295 0.324 0.409

Right off the bat those not ill 9.7% will have some sort of lung condition? This sample might have issues with just the common cold.

Retired 0.211 0.130 0.103 0.092 0.128 0.091

Not ill 21.1% retired! That cant help the mind if you are not active doing something…..

Depression 0.126 0.140 0.216 0.382 0.243 0.341

Well depression likely not a good thing to have for the mind…..

So we have a Lung issue, retired, and depression PLUS covid leads to cognitive deficits – sounds reasonable to me – how about if they caught the flu I suspect the same result?

Effectiveness of vaccine being questioned …..https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-first-time-since-march-855-new-coronavirus-cases-in-israel-674084/amp?__twitter_impression=true

“The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials had hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling.

“We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” Bennett said.”

“The highest number of coronavirus cases in nearly four months was diagnosed on Friday – 1,118 people, according to the Health Ministry’s Saturday night report. Of those screened, 1.58% tested positive. The reproduction rate (R), the number of people a sick person infects, stood at 1.37 – meaning that Covid-19 is spreading again.

“At the moment, around 60% of the patients in serious conditions have been vaccinated. Moreover, according to Hebrew University researchers who advise the government, around 90% of newly infected people over the age of 50 are fully vaccinated.”

In the states breakthrough grows – https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/more-than-5100-breakthrough-covid-cases-reported-in-mass-at-least-80-have-died/2435719/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&amp&__twitter_impression=true

“More than 5,100 Massachusetts residents have tested positive for COVID-19, despite being fully vaccinated against the virus, and at least 80 of them have died, state health officials said Tuesday night.”

“As of July 17, a total of 5,166 breakthrough cases had been reported to the state DPH. Of those, 272 people were hospitalized and survived. Of the 80 people who died, 23 died without being hospitalized; 57 died following a hospital stay.

The death toll reflects 1.54% of the 5,166 confirmed breakthrough cases and 0.0018% of the 4,307,361 Bay State residents fully vaccinated as of July 20.”

“The overwhelming majority of the reported breakthrough cases — more than 93% — did not result in either hospitalization or death. Health officials insist vaccine confidence should not be shaken, and say these numbers should be put into perspective.”

The volume of those who will get infected by covid and recover will be growing immensely. There is a value add here as natural infection IS BETTER (assuming you recover without longcovid) than vaccination. Besides previous Israel study noted here are some more studies.

From Thailand – https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20210719/Thai-study-looks-at-CoronaVac-vaccine-vs-natural-immunity-to-SARS-COV-2-variants.aspx?__twitter_impression=true

“The authors of this study reported that the WT strain of SARS-CoV-2 was best neutralized by Natural Infection 2020 when compared to CoronaVac and Natural Infection 2021 sera. However, the Alpha variant was best neutralized by Natural Infection 2021 sera, when compared to CoronaVac and Natural Infection 2020 sera.

In the case of the Beta variant, this form of SARS-CoV-2 was best neutralized by Natural Infection 2020 and 2021 sera with higher NAb titer levels. Although the Delta variant was neutralized well by Natural Infection 2020 and 2021 sera, levels of NAb titers were much lower when compared with the Alpha and Beta variants.

In summary, the results of the current study indicate that NAb titers elicited by CoronaVac are much lower when compared to natural infection.”

Cleveland Clinic – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v2

“Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate the necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in persons previously infected with SARS-CoV-2.”

“Among the 52238 included employees, 1359 (53%) of 2579 previously infected subjects remained unvaccinated, compared with 22777 (41%) of 49659 not previously infected. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection remained almost zero among previously infected unvaccinated subjects, previously infected subjects who were vaccinated, and previously uninfected subjects who were vaccinated, compared with a steady increase in cumulative incidence among previously uninfected subjects who remained unvaccinated

“Conclusions Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination, and vaccines can be safely prioritized to those who have not been infected before.”

Now WHY this article has not made mainstream is BEYOND me – we have parts of the world that could be taking the vaccine we don’t need to be taking the vaccine here when its not needed – we do have one of the highest confirmation per capita in the world – we don’t need to lead in the most vaccination per capita given that stat and the above study.

NYU study – https://trialsitenews.com/nyu-scientists-study-vaccines-vs-infection-does-immunity-vary-from-natural-sars-cov-2-infection-to-mrna-vaccine/

Gamma variant study – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/10/21-1427_article

“An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 caused by the Gamma variant of concern infected 24/44 (55%) employees of a gold mine in French Guiana (87% symptomatic, no severe forms). The attack rate was 60% (15/25) among fully vaccinated miners and 75% (3/4) among unvaccinated miners without a history of infection.”

“We describe a COVID-19 Gamma variant cluster with a high attack rate even in fully vaccinated persons. The Gamma variant is the predominant variant in French Guiana which, as of July 2021, caused a third epidemic wave, threatening to overwhelm the hospital capacity (11). Such a low vaccine efficiency against infection by the Gamma variant was not expected because in vitro studies have shown a similar reduction of neutralization for Beta or Gamma variants by BNT162b2-elicited antibodies (5) and a conserved CD4+ T-cell response against spike proteins from the Beta variant”

“In conclusion, we describe a VOC Gamma COVID-19 outbreak with a strikingly high attack rate among persons fully vaccinated with BNT162b2 vaccine. Our observation suggested that BNT162b2 protected from severe COVID-19. However, this single unexpected outbreak in a small and isolated vaccinated population requires further real-life studies on BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against the VOC Gamma. Masking and social distancing —even among those fully vaccinated— may be necessary among persons with frequent exposure in Gamma variant–endemic zones.”

Todays conclusions breakthrough will continue to grow – I estimate over 40% given I was a perfect case who is very healthy and then seeing the real life study above. Remember all the initial efficacy studies done in a very control setting. Real world is where we live. The positive side is stay healthy be active and you can get through the covid sickness and not have to deal with another infection from covid for some time. Having recovered from Covid is BETTER than a vaccination. Recovery Passports please…..IF they want to stop spread focus on ventilation not vaccinating the youth…..

Indonesia leading deaths followed by Ecuador. Ecuador could really use our vaccines. Promoting vaccines for the youth while a country in Ecuador at 0.04% vaccinated seems to be very wrong.

FL leads the US

TN is showing a hot spot BUT its an unassigned county

Covid19mathblog.com

I have confirmed my positive Covid test and checked with latest updated symptoms assuming you were vaccinated – https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/new-top-5-covid-symptoms . I did get the J&J back in May. It would be nice to be able to know what variant I have but that is not available to me.

Overall feels like the flu – I have had worse but still not a good feeling. I started my prescription of HCQ, Ivermectin yesterday along with other things melatonin, vitamin D, black cumin, etc…. I am doing that only because of the risk/reward I perceive and the noted potential benefit of reducing long covid. In fact it kind of felt liberating to take the pills last night – gave me an extra boost to stick it the machine – perhaps a placebo effect. Sunday I had done my usual run,swim,bike routine. Worked all day….then on Monday morning just not feeling right. Took a PCR test on Tues morning – took till Wed night to get result. The worse I feel is in the morning which is strange given past illness I usually feel good in morning and weaken over time.

Anyway I didn’t want to jinx myself but I figure its important to be transparent and let people know I do follow through my research. The suspect of my source is likely my teenage kids you have started enjoying their lives again by going out and inviting friends in – at the same time I was more cavalier given I had my vaccine (less mask wearing)…..

I cant help but lay down outside and read…..then something will upset me and I have to go to computer to validate it…..This paper is making its round with people all over the country commenting – https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/21/coronavirus-texas-vaccinated-deaths/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Recall the saying “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” well here is a perfect example.

“Preliminary data shows 99.5% of COVID-related deaths in Texas were among unvaccinated people, according to the Department of State Health Services.”

“Of the 8,787 people who have died in Texas due to COVID-19 since early February, at least 43 were fully vaccinated, the Texas Department of State Health Services said.

That means 99.5% of people who died due to COVID-19 in Texas from Feb. 8 to July 14 were unvaccinated, while 0.5% were the result of “breakthrough infections,” which DSHS defines as people who contracted the virus two weeks after being fully vaccinated.”

Issues:

My data source shows from Feb8 to July 14 total TX death = 13405 vs 8787?

By April 18th TX had only achieve 20% vaccinated per capita. At that time 10273 deaths since Feb 8th. So BEFORE we even get to July we are showing 95% of deaths in an environment when vaccinations have not been adopted much. Would it surprise you if I made the statement 100% of deaths in 2020 from covid came from unvaccinated? This is almost as an egregious statement now. I really have no idea the concept they are trying to spin here. Do they expect people not to check or analyze their work? I am sick but I couldn’t get any rest with these numbers in my head.

Breakthrough is no doubt going to be much higher than they are saying – else countries with high vaccination wouldn’t see the spikes. The best thing to realize getting covid – assuming you recover from it – will be much better for you than getting the vaccine as noted from their study 7X less likely to get covid after a natural recovery vs. vaccine – https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762?fbclid=IwAR10LYZviX9Lpf5MgzP-y6Hit2ZTXM8wrGy4IPc-ikzHfEfSQhgey4V85Ig

I hope they recognize the value of naturally recovering from covid vs. vaccination. At least having recovering from covid equal to the vaccination.

Still waiting to find a study showing the infection rate is materially different from vaccinated vs. unvaccinated – everyone is quick to blame the unvaccinated – https://www.mediaite.com/politics/watch-clearly-frustrated-alabama-gov-says-its-time-to-start-blaming-the-unvaccinated-folks-as-covid-cases-rise-in-her-state/

In Singapore – vaccinated people are making up 75% of covid cases! https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/23/us-health-coronavirus-singapore

I hear and read that people are shock that there are so many in the US not vaccinated – so many? Vaccination rate in US is 48% – 40% of population is 35 and under! I think people are just frustrated and want something to blame. Blame the unvaccinated? You should blame the system for not setting standards/guidelines for ventilation – CO2 ppm – Personally recommend <1000ppm As long as 50+ has the vaccine deaths should be limited. Pushing the youth to vaccinate will not give you much bang for you buck.

Severity of the disease is a function of AGE – there is no significant value to push the 40% of the population to get vaccination -even the breakthrough impacts are a function of age for severity – https://bestlifeonline.com/news-vaccinated-severe-covid/

“according to the CDC’s data, people who experience these severe breakthrough infections tend to have one thing in common: They’re older adults. Fully vaccinated people 65 years and older account for 75 percent of breakthrough COVID cases that lead to hospitalization or death.”

The other excuse I hear the unvaccinated will make the variant – this is yet to be proven – I have looked and looked for this. IF vaccinated people are getting infected which I believe will be growing as indicated in Singapore you cant blame that on the unvaccinated – particularly the unvaccinated youths.

Yikes for Ecuador – les tha 0.04% vaccinated and the lead in deaths!

The good news confirmation waves are with a declining death wave

Same top 3 states

Limited death hot spots still.

Covid19mathblog.com

How about killing the virus vs having an immune response kill it – https://www.freethink.com/health/coronavirus-transmission-2

“Using CRISPR, Australian researchers have prevented a coronavirus infection from spreading in human cells in the lab. They’re now looking for a way to develop the treatment into an oral drug that could halt coronavirus transmission in people — and potentially stop other viruses as well.”

“CRISPR is a gene editing tool that originally evolved in bacteria as an antivirus system, for searching out viral genes and destroying them.

In a newly published study, Australian scientists demonstrate how they programmed a CRISPR system to bind to and degrade specific parts of the coronavirus’ genome, blocking transmission between human cells.

“Once the virus is recognized, the CRISPR enzyme is activated and chops up the virus,” Lewin said. “We targeted several parts of the virus — parts that are very stable and don’t change and parts that are highly changeable — and all worked very well in chopping up the virus.””

Delta information – https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/delta-variant-everything-you-need?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=twitter

What was missing was how they knew the amount of Delta so precisely – its not precise but likely ballpark. The only WAY to know variant is genome sequencing – when you get your covid test PCR or antigen – they cannot know the variant. Do they get permission to run genome sequence or just do it when they want? Does the patient ever get informed? https://www.wmtw.com/article/experts-answer-whether-covid-19-tests-can-detect-specific-variants/37051361

“Erich Fogg, who oversees the testing site at York Hospital, said COVID-19 tests are only looking out for the presence of the virus.

"All the PCR test will tell you is whether you test positive for COVID-19, but it doesn’t specify. It is not sophisticated enough to tell you specific variants of the virus," Fogg said. PCR tests use the genetic material contained in the COVID-19 virus to identify If someone is positive, regardless of the mutation or variant.”

“"Keep in mind, there are thousands of variants of COVID-19 at this point, that the far majority don’t change the behavior of the virus," Fogg said.

To determine if a positive COVID-19 test sample is a variant of the virus, it must undergo genomic sequencing, which helps monitor changes to the virus over time.”

“Earlier this week, MaineHealth reported that additional testing on 49 positive COVID-19 samples from patients found that 18 were the delta variant.

MaineHealth Chief Health Improvement Officer Dr. Dora Anne Mills said the additional testing is expensive and was done for epidemiological purposes. She said the samples will undergo further genomic testing.

“We just can’t go in and say, ‘Can I have a delta test?’ It is really just testing you for COVID. That is the important thing, and the treatment doesn’t matter if you have COVID or the delta variant of COVID,” Mills said.”

To be vaccinated or naturally get covid – finally an analysis of the two paths to future immunity as we speak – https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762?fbclid=IwAR10LYZviX9Lpf5MgzP-y6Hit2ZTXM8wrGy4IPc-ikzHfEfSQhgey4V85Ig

“More than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases.”

Roughly 40% of new cases – or more than 3,000 patients – involved people who had been infected despite being vaccinated. With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID.

By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave.”

“…some saying the data proves the higher level of immunity provided by natural infection versus vaccination, while others remained unconvinced.”

Could Sweden have been right all along?

Sydney Australia what are we targeting? Any mental health concerns? https://twitter.com/LHatesYouALot/status/1417118833865854978?s=19

Back to J&J bashing while concluding to take the competitors vaccine as a remedy – https://www.post-gazette.com/news/nation/2021/07/20/One-Dose-of-J-amp-J-Vaccine-Is-Ineffective-Against-Delta-Study-Suggests/stories/202107200188

“The coronavirus vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson is much less effective against the delta and lambda variants than against the original virus, according to a new study posted online Tuesday.

The findings add to evidence that the 13 million people inoculated with the J&J vaccine may need to receive a second dose — ideally of one of the mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna, the authors said. But the conclusions are at odds with those from smaller studies published by Johnson & Johnson earlier this month suggesting that a single dose of the vaccine is effective against the variant even eight months after inoculation.”

On the conspiracy front lab leak still gaining momentum. Latest Fauci vs. Rand Paul became divisive https://twitter.com/feeonline/status/1417583818882551808?s=19 – I don’t think they like each other. Nonetheless there is an admittance of Funding the LARGEST virology lab in the world – hard disclaimer from Fauci: Obviously not on any projects to do with the potential to create covid. HOWEVER capital allocation doesn’t quite work that way – if you fund a pot and a pot allocates your money to something doesn’t mean you didn’t have a hand in enabling the other experiments. My quest to answer can it really just be a coincidence that it started in Wuhan led me to the following facts– is Jon Stewart perhaps right (https://youtu.be/sSfejgwbDQ8) Well it turns out there are ONLY 59 bsl4 labs in the world with Wuhan being the largest at this time. There are only 3 in China. They have 687 cities in China but covid started up in Wuhan – coincidence? https://theconversation.com/fifty-nine-labs-around-world-handle-the-deadliest-pathogens-only-a-quarter-score-high-on-safety-161777

Data manipulation and scare tactic? WSJ puts out – https://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-covid-19-death-toll-is-likely-in-the-millions-study-finds-11626792531 which is really regurgitating this report – https://cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic

“We reportexcess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through

June 2021. First, extrapolation of state-level civil registration from seven states suggests 3.4 million

excess deaths. Second, applying international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR)

to Indian seroprevalence data implies a higher toll of around 4 million. Third, our analysis of the

Consumer Pyramid Household Survey, a longitudinal panel of over 800,000 individuals across all

states, yields an estimate of 4.9 million excess deaths”

Likely the numbers are low but to the extent suggested in the report very unlikely. Lets start debunking….well what we do know they have confirmed cases with deaths. They have a fatality rate of 1.34% clearly low relative to many countries but in line with Asian countries. Even if you double this number it would put it over the average of the world which is around 2% – you could get to the 3-4 Million alluded but that’s a lot more confirmations. (3.5 Million / .03 = 117 Million confirmed /1380 Million = 8.4% confirmed per capita). Potentially possible given the US sits 10% confirmation per capita but there ae many factors at play here. Number one large part of ventilation in India is through windows and fans. Their BMI is way lower – their age demographic is way lower which then supports lower fatality rates and confirmation (youth spread is much lower). MOST of Asia shows low confirmed per capita even from countries who typically would be transparent Thailand, Singapore, and South Korea (0.6%,1.1%,0.36%) – fatality rates also low (0.8%,0.1%,1.1%). Therefore to bump India up to non-Asian country seems to be disingenuous. L. America and S. America countries the report tries to allude to Brazil Peru Mexico have much higher BMI and access to drugs are much more limited than in India.

So why this report – a potential lead is to follow the money. Center for Global Development is funded by the Gates foundation – who also funds https://www.gatesfoundation.org/about/committed-grants/2017/11/opp1137437 – which is a political opponent of the current regime – perhaps a conflict of interest?

In addition Mondi has been noted to say they could get the numbers down without vaccines – this puts a big target on him. They used a war chest of drugs from HCQ and Ivermectin and local remedies – and who knows which work since no control cases but the numbers are down amazingly fast as compared to Brazil. There is some credit IF the numbers are even HALF true for the remarkable turnaround.

Clearly something is happening in terms of spread in UK, Spain etc… Below are the top countries observing large 7 Day Moving Average confirmation per capita. Sweden I put as benchmark given they did not lockdown and was criticize. Perhaps they support the Israel study that natural immunity is more sustainable?

It would be nice to say it’s just countries who haven’t vaccinated. This is not true. Deaths are certainly helped with Vaccines but the best performing for the past 7 days death is Sweden and their vaccine levels in the middle of the pack. UK deaths climbing even though 53% fully vaccinated.

Ecuador on top of the death count followed by Brazil

State view we have FL, CA, and TX leading the way

In terms of hot spots just not much out there in terms of deaths. The spread is happening regardless of vaccination levels as noted below. Vaccines helping out in deaths but seem to not significantly alter spread. They need to focus on ventilation.

Covid19mathblog.com

Ivermectin getting some backlash/scrutiny as a report is being withdrawn with some issues in it. However still not address is the fact the risk of taking ivermectin is likely equivalent to Tylenol/advil/vitamins assuming under a care/review. And what would be the motive for this error if on purpose – fame? – no money to be made from ivermectin. Huge study supporting ivermectin as Covid treatment withdrawn over ethical concerns | Medical research | The Guardian

“the drug’s promise as a treatment for the virus is in serious doubt after the Elgazzar study was pulled from the Research Square website on Thursday “due to ethical concerns”. Research Square did not outline what those concerns were.

A medical student in London, Jack Lawrence, was among the first to identify serious concerns about the paper, leading to the retraction. He first became aware of the Elgazzar preprint when it was assigned to him by one of his lecturers for an assignment that formed part of his master’s degree. He found the introduction section of the paper appeared to have been almost entirely plagiarised.”

“The data also looked suspicious to Lawrence, with the raw data apparently contradicting the study protocol on several occasions.

“The authors claimed to have done the study only on 18-80 year olds, but at least three patients in the dataset were under 18,” Lawrence said.”

What is interesting is how J&J continues to be scrutinized way more than Moderna and Pfizer so I agree with this assesment – ‘Teacher’s Pets’ Moderna And Pfizer-BioNTech Again Avoid FDA Scrutiny – OpEd – Eurasia Review

“It does not seem fair. This week, Johnson & Johnson was called out by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for problems with Johnson & Johnson’s experimental coronavirus vaccine. While experimental coronavirus vaccine competitors Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech skated by without censure despite their shots appearing likely to cause the same problems, the FDA put out a warning regarding the Johnson & Johnson shot.

With this sort of singling out of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine for criticism, which has happened before as well, it seems appropriate to ask: Are Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech teacher’s pets of the FDA?”

“The United States government lets slide risks from two companies’ shots while investigating and warning about the similar risks from another company’s shots, as well as even halting the giving of that company’s shots. Are we seeing here favoritism for certain companies, or is it, as I suggested in April, favoritism for the new mRNA technology shots over the more traditional shot Johnson & Johnson offers? The experimental coronavirus vaccine shots pushers in government and media keep telling people to “follow the science.” However, the apparent favoritism for the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech shots over the Johnson & Johnson shot suggests that something other than the science is being followed by US government regulators”

50/50 now for a lab leak! Senior Biden officials finding that Covid lab leak theory as credible as natural origins explanation – CNNPolitics

“Senior Biden administration officials overseeing an intelligence review into the origins of the coronavirus now believe the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it emerged naturally in the wild — a dramatic shift from a year ago, when Democrats publicly downplayed the so-called lab leak theory.”

Covid and kids – once again they are the least likely group to gain from vaccination given the extent issue of getting and being impacted by covid so in practice the vaccination level SHOULD be less in this category given reward is smaller and potentially risk is higher given more time for longer term impact – July: ncmd-covidrisks | News and features | University of Bristol

“The risk of severe illness and death from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is extremely low in children and teenagers, according to the most comprehensive analyses of public health data, led by researchers at UCL, University of Bristol, University of York and the University of Liverpool.”

“One preprint study*, published on the medRxiv server, found that 251 young people aged under 18 in England were admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 during the first year of the pandemic (until the end of February 2021).

The researchers, seeking to determine absolute risk, said this equated to young people of that age group in England having a one in 47,903 chance of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 and subsequently being admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 during that time.

Looking separately at PIMS-TS*, a rare inflammatory syndrome in children caused by Covid-19, the researchers found that 309 young people were admitted to intensive care with this condition – equating to an absolute risk of one in 38,911.

A linked preprint study**, also published on the medRxiv server and looking at data for England, concluded that 25 children and young people had died as a result of Covid-19, equating to an absolute risk of death from Covid-19 of one in 481,000, or approximately two in a million.”

““Those young people at higher risk are those who are also at higher risk from any winter virus or other illness – that is, young people with multiple health conditions and complex disabilities. Covid-19 does however increase the risks for people in these groups to a higher degree than for illnesses such as influenza (seasonal flu).

“Our new findings are important as they will inform shielding guidance for young people as well as decisions about the vaccination of teenagers and children, not just in the UK but internationally.””

“In a separate preprint study**, researchers looked at data from the National Child Mortality Database (NCMD) at the University of Bristol, a mandatory reporting system in England, to identify all children and young people who died following SARS-CoV-2 infection until the end of February 2021. Sixty-one children died following a positive diagnosis, but the researchers reviewed clinical records to determine that only 25 of these children (41 per cent) died as a result of Covid-19.

Meanwhile, a third linked preprint paper*** published this week looked at 81 existing studies assessing risk factors for severe illness and death from Covid-19 among young people. It found higher risks among young people who were obese, had more than one health condition, or had a cardiac or neurological condition. Risk, particularly risk of death, was higher in these analyses than in the national English data. The authors suggested this was likely reflecting biases in the published literature but also the inclusion of studies from resource-poor settings with higher mortality.”

LA county back to mask mandate – LA County Brings Back Mask Mandate Indoors — Even If You’re Vaccinated | KQED

Question IS IT THE BEST THING TO FOCUS ON? Should they ask why LA what makes LA different than SF? LA 188% greater on per capita than SF in the last 30 days. My hypothesis goes back to ventilation. LA should focus on setting indoor CO2 levels and promoting adjustments to HVAC to produce less than 1000 ppm. Data certainly shows a spike coming – still quite a ways from the previous spike.

Brazil still #1 – Indonesia surpassed India in confirmations now.

FL continues to dominate the numbers. Why FL? At least they continue to show relatively low fatality rates.

Hotspots LA and Miami Dade

Covid19mathblog.com

Interesting to wonder if they updated this report where covid and climate change would sit – Does the news reflect what we die from? – Our World in Data

Good news for J&J recipients – Johnson & Johnson vaccine effective against Delta variant, UAB experts say – al.com

““The message is the J&J vaccine is inducing really good, really long term immunity, at least right now,” she said. “It appears to be about 90% effective against the Delta variant, very similar to the mRNA vaccines, which is really, I think, really exciting and good news.”

Because of the vaccine’s effectiveness, she said it’s unlikely people who got the J&J vaccine will need to get a second “booster” shot any time soon.”

Noted many times before a nasal spray maybe just the perfect thing to fight covid and other colds/flus – Made-in-Israel anti-viral nasal spray found effective against COVID – The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

“Enovid, a spray developed in Canada by SaNOtize and manufactured in Israel has been found to reduce viral loads in confirmed COVID-19 cases by 95% in 24 hours and 99% in 72 hours”

Scott Gottlieb makes a lot of talks – he has spoken many times in ICE forums – never realizing all this time he sits on the board of Pfizer…. – Gottlieb: ‘We’ve probably missed a window’ for providing booster shot for delta variant | TheHill

“Scott Gottlieb, a former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner who sits on Pfizer’s board of directors, said on Sunday that the nation has "probably missed a window" for providing a booster shot to protect against the more infectious delta variant of COVID-19.”

Given not reporting each day the charts below reflect a 7 day Moving average number now:

India now below 1K deaths whereas Brazil still needs to get some lessons from India. Fatality rates for India also still one of the lowest.

UK confirmation is rising along with Spain.

US 7 day moving average death only 234. CA leads death. FL leads confirmation

LA and Miami Dade lead the hotspot confirmation.

Covid19mathblog.com

Not the best of news – efficacy of Pfizer vaccine drops with delta variant – good news hospitalization/seriousness stayed relatively strong – https://fortune.com/2021/07/05/israel-data-plunge-efficacy-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-delta-variant/

“The figures show that between May 2 and June 5, the vaccine had a 94.3% efficacy rate. From June 6, five days after the government canceled coronavirus restrictions, until early July, the rate plunged to 64%. A similar decline was recorded in protection against coronavirus symptoms, the report said. At the same time, protection against hospitalization and serious illness remained strong. From May 2 to June 5, the efficacy rate in preventing hospitalization was 98.2%, compared with 93% from June 6 to July 3. A similar decline in the rate was recorded for the vaccine’s efficiency in preventing serious illness among people who had been inoculated.”

“Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has said people will “likely” need a third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated.”

More bad Pfizer press -very sad as the risk/reward was not properly assessed here – https://nypost.com/2021/07/05/michigan-boy-dies-in-his-sleep-three-days-after-getting-vaccine/

“A 13-year-old Michigan boy died in his sleep three days after receiving the coronavirus vaccine in June and the Centers for Disease Control has opened an investigation into the death, a report said on Sunday.

Jacob Clynick — who was preparing to enter high school in the fall — received his second dose of the Pfizer vaccine at a Walgreens in Zilwaukee, Mich. on June 13, his aunt told the Detroit Free Press.

Jacob was healthy and had no underlying health conditions. In the two days following the second jab, the only side effects he had experienced were the same ones most others had to deal with: fatigue and fever.

On June 15, two nights after receiving the second dose, Jacob complained of a stomach ache before going to sleep and never woke up.”

“The American Academy of Pediatrics agreed, calling the ailment “an extremely rare side effect,” adding that most cases are not severe and people normally recover without treatment.”

What if besides a vaccine you just get a common cold to build your immunity – as noted living too clean is not good for you – https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/mild-covid19-prior-exposure-common-cold-coronavirus-stanford/

“A new study from Stanford University researchers has found previous recent exposure to common coronaviruses could help explain why some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 only suffer mild symptoms. The research showed specific immune cells from patients with mild cases of COVID-19 exhibit signs of prior encounters with common-cold-causing coronaviruses”

““It may be that patients with severe COVID-19 hadn’t been infected, at least not recently, by gentler coronavirus strains, so they didn’t retain effective memory killer T cells,” hypothesizes Davis. The new study offers some clues to why children have been less susceptible to severe COVID-19. Prior research has suggested the frequency of recent exposure to common coronaviruses in children could play a role in reducing disease severity, and Davis believes his new findings back up that hypothesis.

“Sniffles and sneezes typify the daycare setting and coronavirus-caused common colds are a big part of the reason,” he says. “As many as 80 percent of kids in the United States get exposed within the first couple of years of life.” A recent study from researchers at Johns Hopkins Medicine found this compelling cross-reactive immune response between SARS-CoV-2 and common coronaviruses could mean COVID-19 vaccines generate a small degree of protection against the common cold.”

Another country throws in the white towel – https://apnews.com/article/europe-coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-government-and-politics-650b09e7babe362e1777606e6b1a369b

“British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to unveil plans Monday to scrap mandatory mask-wearing and social distancing in England in two weeks’ time, despite surging coronavirus infections driven by the highly contagious delta variant.

Johnson said he would set out how the country would “learn to live with this virus” — a major shift in tone from a leader who has previously painted COVID-19 as an enemy to be vanquished.”

Imagine if they just gave out Vitamin D for free in hotspots -7X improvement -….note Fauci was taking it – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.04.21258358v1.full.pdf

“Of 1176 patients admitted, 253 had VitD levels prior to COVID-19 infection. Compared with mildly or

moderately diseased patients, those with severe or critical COVID-19 disease were more likely to have

pre-infection vitamin D deficiency of less than 20 ng/mL (OR=14.30, 95%, 4.01-50.9; p < .001); be older

(OR=1.039 for each year, 95% CI for OR, 1.017-1.061; p< .01), and have diabetes (OR=2.031, 95% CI

for OR, 1.04-3.36; p= 0.038). Vitamin D deficiency was associated with higher rates of mortality

(p<0.001) and comorbidities including COPD (p=0.006), diabetes (p=0.026), and hypertension (p

=0.016).

Conclusions:

Among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, pre-infection deficiency of vitamin D was associated with

increased disease severity and mortality.”

Nothing like a holiday weekend for low numbers….not one country over 1K death

Russia, S. Africa, and UK are seeing confirmation rise

Not much reporting in the US over the weekend

Death reporting looks to have taken a break.

Covid19mathblog.com

I think the biggest news that needs to be discussed is censorship….it seems it came from a good place to rid of those conspirators and trouble makers – but as they say “the road to hell is paved with good intentions”…. Now you have people censoring per a difference of opinion from the “mainstream” but that is how progress is made by discussing differences….Mass/group thinking can result in very bad results for society.

Note the discussion on LinkedIn from some IT/analyst at LinkedIn telling the potential founder of mRNA that his discussion is not right and asking for clarity….seriously what is this persons credentials to even care to fathom to censor Dr. Malone – https://static1.squarespace.com/static/550b0ac4e4b0c16cdea1b084/t/60ddac1c82999b17efe14cb2/1625140252298/Gmail+-+Official+LinkedIn+message+from+…nd+Recovery+Team+%5BCase_+210701-000665%5D.pdf

Here we have another example of Youtube censoring Dr. Omura Nobel Prize Winner who discovered Ivermectin which has saved millions! I mean really what type of credentials do these institutions have? https://twitter.com/michaelcapuzzo/status/1410626769166733317?s=19

I suspect this article/idea will get censored – a proposal that the youth would be better off getting covid naturally vs. vaccine – https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/children-better-off-catching-covid-naturally-than-having-a-jab-xx7kmwxrd

“Allowing children to catch Covid-19 naturally may be better for them than vaccination, according to a member of the committee deciding whether to offer jabs to teenagers.

Professor Robert Dingwall, of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, said that given how mild illness was in teenagers, vaccines had to be “exceptionally safe” not to do more harm than good.”

Not going to get censored – Moderna notes effective with Delta variant – https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/06/30/coronavirus-latest-updates/

“Moderna said Tuesday that its coronavirus vaccine was effective against the more contagious delta variant first identified in India.”

Amazing to see how quickly India numbers have fallen….Brazil should call India

Great results from India – lesson learn….BTW they implemented Ivermectin

CA and TX leads in confirmation and deaths due to the largess of the state

Hot spot – Clark Nevada and LA. Cameron TX is a border county that leads in death.

Covid19mathblog.com

Covid is made to be bad in many ways. Now its proven to decay your brain – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1.full.pdf

You don’t want to get covid no matter what. Stay healthy and stay in well ventilated places when dealing with the public. Well ventilated can be defined by buying a CO2 monitor on amazon and staying in areas below 1000 ppm.

“We identified significant effects of COVID-19 in the brain with a loss of grey matter in

the left parahippocampal gyrus, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex and the left insula.”

“Our findings thus

consistently relate to loss of grey matter in limbic cortical areas directly linked to the primary

olfactory and gustatory system”

Matt Taibbi weighs in on Ivermectin and the awful political/monetary collusion we are dealing with even though lives are at stake. IF you are at the end of your life you should be able to do just about whatever you want to yourself – even take a pill that has been taken for decades and show no harm and perhaps not much gain – even placebos can be powerful – wtf do people interfere at that point – https://taibbi.substack.com/p/ivermectin-can-a-drug-be-right-wing-ca7?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyMzY4MjAwNiwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzgwMTg3MjIsIl8iOiJZT2hhWSIsImlhdCI6MTYyNDY2NjAwMSwiZXhwIjoxNjI0NjY5NjAxLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTA0MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.QFp9UEU4i8v6VPS5eE6R9gwqx3d782OvXjDjlbpBkbg

It is here to stay and the more we get to that point the better we can move on – Singapore is coming to that point – https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-singapores-surprising-new-plan-to-live-with-virus/EKXDOTWZYMUGFRRMF553CH2T5U/

“A country that has been one of the world’s most successful at combating Covid-19 has announced it will soon fundamentally change how it manages the pandemic.

The city state of Singapore has stated Covid will be treated like other endemic diseases such as flu.

There will be no goals of zero transmission. Quarantine will be dumped for travellers and close contacts of cases will not have to isolate. It also plans to no longer announce daily case numbers.”

Ugh some stats – pass me ivermectin (Dr. Kory notes help with long covid – hope is important) and stay healthy DON’T pass on the last point it’s a shame it’s at the bottom of the article- https://www.livemint.com/news/india/almost-40-covid-sufferers-continue-to-experience-symptoms-after-12-weeks-study-11624629363773.html

“The result of the study revealed that 28,713 – or 37.7% – experienced at least one symptom for 12 weeks or more

The prominent symptoms found among such people were– tiredness, muscle aches, fatigue, difficulty sleeping, and chest pains, among others”

“However, the study found obesity, smoking or vaping, hospitalisation, and deprivation were associated with a higher probability of persistent symptoms.”

Very important JUST because they say something is safe now doesn’t mean it is – how long have we accepted artificial sweetners? – seriously we just started taking mRNA vaccine for the very first time in history – THINK FOR YOURSELF weigh your own personal risk/reward for yourself and your kids – those forcing all to vaccine are you also going to be there for the unfortunate ones who are the RARE case – https://futurism.com/neoscope/scientists-artificial-sweeteners-pathogenic-bacteria

“According to a new study, some of the most commonly used artificial sweeteners could potentially cause serious health issues by making the bacteria in our gut invade our intestinal walls.

The study underlines that there’s still a lot we don’t understand about the sweeteners being added to many diet products — and demonstrates that further research is needed.”

Brazil still on top

S. Africa seeing a rise – it is their winter….

TX leads confirmation Ohio leads death

Still not many county hotspots – Clark Nevada leads at 740

Weekly deaths are still higher than the avg. – not by much but I was not expecting this – I was anticipating under the curve at some point.

Covid19mathblog.com

Ivermectin makes it on Joe Rogan Show – focus on censorship besides the efficacy of ivermectin- https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uVXKgE6eLJKMXkETwcw0D?si=a9b76311dfc84ee0

Bret Weinstein notes issue because IF ivermectin works the loss of emergency authorization hence vaccines cannot be given!

Around 130.00 Dr. Kory notes the assistance of ivermectin in Long Covid and those sick after vaccine….based on fact potential binding on spike protein.

136 Bret Weinstein talks about the issue of the vaccine and the spike protein mechanism.

Hilarious how rare it is compared to how rare it was when they paused J&J vaccine -granted there was a death then per treatment issue – the volume here is 5X vs J&J issue. https://www.npr.org/2021/06/23/1009522605/heart-inflammation-in-teens-and-young-adults-after-covid-19-vaccine-is-rare-cdc-

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says 323 cases of heart inflammation have been verified in people who received the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine.”

Adding to some collusion cover up – deleted genetic data – https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/seattle-scientist-digs-up-deleted-coronavirus-genetic-data-adding-fuel-to-covid-origin-debate/?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=Referral&utm_campaign=RSS_seattle-news

“An American scientist has incited a new skirmish over the origin of the coronavirus, reporting that he has retrieved potentially significant genetic data about SARS-CoV-2 that had been stored and later deleted from a digital archive at the National Institutes of Health.”

Oxford moving forward with studying ivermectin – https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/oxford-university-explores-anti-parasitic-drug-ivermectin-covid-19-treatment-2021-06-22/?taid=60d2a4dfe21cb900013b7678&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

“The University of Oxford said on Wednesday it was testing anti-parasitic drug ivermectin as a possible treatment for COVID-19, as part of a British government-backed study that aims to aid recoveries in non-hospital settings.

Ivermectin resulted in a reduction of virus replication in laboratory studies, the university said, adding that a small pilot showed giving the drug early could reduce viral load and the duration of symptoms in some patients with mild COVID-19”

Brazil continues to be a concern. India continues its downward fall in numbers.

Total world numbers almost at last year trough in the spring.

TX leads confirmation CA leads death

Bexar – is San Antonio TX