Covid19mathblog.com

Govt ineptitude – perhaps too large – too overburden – too much responsibility? – as noted by the person its simple if you have time and motivation what one can do – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/nyregion/vaccine-website-appointment-nyc.html#click=https://t.co/k2i8RJLQ2G

“Huge Ma, a 31-year-old software engineer for Airbnb, was stunned when he tried to make a coronavirus vaccine appointment for his mother in early January and saw that there were dozens of websites to check, each with its own sign-up protocol. The city and state appointment systems were completely distinct.

“There has to be a better way,” he said he remembered thinking.

So, he developed one. In less than two weeks, he launched TurboVax, a free website that compiles availability from the three main city and state New York vaccine systems and sends the information in real time to Twitter. It cost Mr. Ma less than $50 to build, yet it offers an easier way to spot appointments than the city and state’s official systems do.

“It’s sort of become a challenge to myself, to prove what one person with time and a little motivation can do,” he said last week. “This wasn’t a priority for governments, which was unfortunate. But everyone has a role to play in the pandemic, and I’m just doing the very little that I can to make it a little bit easier.””

Discussed before was the use of inhalers to combat covid – here is another confirmation and drug used to treat covid- https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-asthma-treatment-int-idUSKBN2A92M7

“A commonly used asthma treatment appears to reduce the need for hospitalizations as well as recovery time for COVID-19 patients if given within seven days of symptoms appearing, researchers at the University of Oxford said on Tuesday.

The findings were made following a mid-stage study of the steroid budesonide, sold as Pulmicort by AstraZeneca Plc and also used for treating smoker’s lung.

The 28-day study of 146 patients suggested that inhaled budesonide reduced the risk of urgent care or hospitalization by 90% when compared with usual care, Oxford University said.”

“Initial data from the study also found volunteers treated with budesonide had a quicker resolution of fever and fewer persistent symptoms.

“I am heartened that a relatively safe, widely available and well studied medicine … could have an impact on the pressures we are experiencing during the pandemic,” said Mona Bafadhel, lead investigator of the trial.”

US death only 3.1K Brazil almost 2K

Vaccination in US seems to follow a wave pattern

Israel over 25% vaccinated

TX leads confirmation CA leads death

Confirmation in TX looks to be centered around population locations.

LA county still leads all but the gap is coming smaller between 1st and 2nd. Only 2 counties now greater than 2K confirm – this has fallen a great deal.

Miami-Dade almost at 15% per capita confirmed – similar to El Paso. Harris is the lowest below but still approaching 8%

Covid19mathblog.com

Not good news for AstraZeneca vaccine – S. African Variant seems to be resistant – https://wpta21.com/2021/02/08/at-least-one-covid-19-vaccine-ineffective-against-new-strain-of-virus/

“a small South African study using younger patients found the AstraZeneca shots provided minimal protection against mild and moderate cases of the South African variant of the coronavirus.”

“One million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine in South Africa were intended for health care and other essential workers, but the government is not allowing those doses to be distributed because of the new findings.

That strain of COVID-19 is now here in the United States, and Allen County Health Commissioner Dr. Matthew Sutter says that’s reason for concern and caution.”

US is making good progress on vaccination – nowhere near Israel but no one is

US Vaccine administered continues to be over 1 million day – with a peak of 2.2 Million a day just few days back

Under 2K deaths in US reported – no other country above 1K

CA resumed its top spot for both confirmation and deaths for the US

LA leads all county. Tarrant County TX is near LA for deaths.

Confirmation is starting to pick up in the NW

LA confirmation has become back to earth – 7 day moving confirmation now below 5K. Death is slowly inching down.

Compared to historical flu pandemics – the second peak was managed much better than in the past. Assuming the peak deaths has been reach for the second wave it represent only 2X from first peak.

Covid19mathblog.com

It would make sense if you had coronavirus you shouldn’t be first in line for the vaccine. This article suggest otherwise but they fail to note the probabilities and focus on fix cases to certainly scare one into jumping into line even though you already had it. They may be right but the way it is written there is not enough information to formulize a conclusion without using an emotional response. They note people who had it can catch it again – what is the % – I am sure we will see people with vaccine will get it again to hence efficacy not 100% Once again the article also makes it sound like taking a vaccine every year will be routine – wow that’s a lot $$$$ that never was needed until now. Someone(s) is making out big because of this virus. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/does-the-vaccine-give-better-protection-than-having-fought-off-the-virus_uk_601c0663c5b62bf30754c563

“we know that coronavirus antibodies from natural infection can last for at least six months for the majority (88%) of people who have had the virus.

Researchers say the results indicate antibodies produced following natural infection may “provide a degree of protection for most people”. However UK Biobank chief scientist, Professor Naomi Allen, says we can’t be certain how having these antibodies relates to immunity.”

“Vaccines, on the other hand, are believed to induce stronger and longer lasting immunity.”

“While most presume that the second time around you’d get an easier ride, one 25-year-old man from Nevada was infected with two variants of the virus within a 48-day timeframe. When he caught Covid-19 the second time, his symptoms were more severe and he ended up in hospital needing oxygen support.”

“the family of viruses have a number of tricks to “subvert normal immunity”, he explains. “The vaccines can overcome this and induce much stronger, more lasting immunity as they work in a different way. They present a single protein – spike – to the immune system on a really stimulatory platform.””

“We know natural immunity can last around six months – but we don’t know how long vaccine immunity lasts. However, based on research from other vaccines, scientists believe having the jab will provide immunity for well over a year.”

“In the UK, the advice is that you should have the vaccine whether or not you’ve previously had Covid-19. Prof Altmann says this is important, “not least because many people could never get a PCR test, so can’t be 100% sure if they were truly infected [at the beginning of the pandemic]”.”

Another interesting over the counter item to use to fight against covid-19 – Xlear sinus care – found on Amazon – once again focused on the sinus which makes sense – adding this to my arsenal for when I travel – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.02.408575v3.full

“Combination therapy with GSE and xylitol may prevent spread of viral respiratory infections not just for SAR-CoV-2 but also for future H1N1 or other viral epidemics. GSE significantly reduces the viral load while xylitol prevents the virus attachment to the core protein on the cell wall.”

So sad no mentioned of ivermectin or even hcq/zinc given very low risk and potential high reward – they did mentioned dexamethasone – https://elemental.medium.com/if-you-get-covid-19-here-are-the-current-treatments-available-85c72086da1e

First time in awhile US not leading death – Brazil at 1500

First time CA not leading any category – NY leading both.

NY is very dispersed

LA still leading all counties

LA deaths are treading down

Covid19mathblog.com

Sunday – start with a feel good story – https://vimeo.com/509097234

Louis Gossett Jr survived covid-19 with much credit going to ivermectin. So sad we cant accept a treatment form that as he stated not much too lose. If you find yourself in this situation say you have worms and get ivermectin. Risk minimal – reward is very high.

On less good news – Oxford vaccine not proving so well with S. African variant – https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55967767

“Oxford-AstraZeneca’s vaccine offers "minimal protection" against mild disease from the South Africa variant, scientists say early trials suggest.

A new study, not yet peer reviewed, involved about 2,000 people who were on average 31 years old.

But Prof Sarah Gilbert, Oxford lead vaccine developer, said vaccines should still protect against severe disease.”

Food for thought – on the health front perhaps our clean lifestyle is missing out on some positives – this notes that parasites actually could assist us in living longer – https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/parasite-infections-may-prevent-aging-and-disease

“Research has suggested that the absence of parasite infections may be linked to an increased prevalence of inflammatory conditions.

According to a new review of existing studies, parasites may have anti-inflammatory properties that may help prevent aging.

Controlled restorative therapies can be beneficial for regulating a proper immune response.”

“Parasites and humans share a long history of coexistence. It is likely that the human immune function developed in relation to parasitic mechanisms.

The “old friends” hypothesis states that these parasites were like old friends of the human body that helped improve tolerance and function and that their decline led to a higher prevalence of allergic responses and autoimmune conditions. This decline may also promote inflammaging, which is a chronic form of inflammation that worsens with progressing age. Inflammaging contributes to several age-related conditions, such as dementia, cancer, osteoporosis, and heart disease.

One recent study shows that inflammaging may exacerbate symptoms of COVID-19, as well.”

US Vaccine administration back on upward trajectory

Sunday – under 3K deaths in US

NY leading confirmation – perhaps the cold?

NY lots of dispersion so not a pinpoint explosion so perhaps the weather is partially responsible

LA leads all county – NY didn’t have any county above 2K confirmed

LA deaths look like it will start the downward projection

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news:

Russia vaccine making headways – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-06/putin-s-once-scorned-vaccine-is-now-a-favorite-in-pandemic-fight?sref=qS0Eg2QL

“At least 19 countries have approved the inoculation for use, including European Union member state Hungary, while key markets such as Brazil and India are close to authorizing it. Now Russia’s setting its sights on the prized EU market as the bloc struggles with its vaccination program amid supply shortages.”

“Results from the late-stage trials of 20,000 participants reviewed in The Lancet showed that the vaccine has a 91.6% success rate.”

“Production constraints are the biggest challenge facing all manufacturers as global demand far outpaces supply. Russia, pledging free shots for its 146 million population, began output last year and the vaccine is currently being manufactured in countries including India, South Korea and Brazil.”

“Latin America is proving fertile territory. Argentina, which has struggled to obtain vaccine supplies, started its mass inoculation program after taking delivery of more than half a million Sputnik V doses by January. It’s been joined by Nicaragua, Paraguay and Venezuela. In Brazil, the region’s biggest market, a decision announced Feb. 3 to scrap the requirement for phase three trials for emergency use may speed up approval.”

“Unlike the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, Sputnik V can be stored in a fridge rather than a freezer, making it easier to transport and distribute in poorer and hotter countries. At around $20 for a two-shot vaccination, it’s also cheaper than most Western alternatives. While more expensive than AstraZeneca, the Russian inoculation has shown higher efficacy than the U.K. vaccine.”

“China, whose inoculations are as low as 50% effective in the case of Sinovac Biotech, retains a lead in Asia. Only a handful of countries have opted for Sputnik V, including the Philippines, which is in talks for 25 million doses.

Chinese developers may now team up with Russia. The RDIF struck a preliminary deal to test a combined regimen of shots from Sputnik V and China’s CanSino Biologics to boost effectiveness against Covid-19, people with knowledge of the matter said Friday.”

“While Russia says it expects the vaccine to be available to 700 million people this year, it’s facing production bottlenecks. “We have to be realistic. Given our other commitments, we will not be able to supply to Europe before May, other than Hungary,” said RDIF’s Dmitriev.

Still, the vaccine is paying dividends for Putin. Even as he visited Moscow Friday to confront Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov over the imprisonment of opposition leader Alexey Navalny, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell took time to congratulate Russia on developing Sputnik V.

“It’s good news for the whole mankind,” Borrell said. “It means that we are going to have more tools to face the pandemic.””

China vaccine – brings up the question preventing death and hospitalization good enough vs. infection? – https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-chinas-sinovac-says-vaccine-stops-covid-19-deaths/a-56477998

“China’s Sinovac said its CoronaVac vaccine was found to be 100% effective in preventing the hospitalization and death of COVID-19 patients, citing late-stage trial data. However, the product had a lower efficacy rate in blocking infections. CoronaVac is one of three vaccines developed in China.

According to a trial in Brazil, the CoronaVac jab averted all coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths among the recipients and was also 83.7% effective in preventing cases that required medical treatment. However, it only managed to stop 50.65% of all infections. At the same time, another trial in Turkey found that the vaccine was 91.25% effective in blocking infections.

The reason for the discrepancy was not immediately clear. In comparison, BioNTech-Pfizer’s vaccine was reported to be 95% effective, with Russia’s Sputnik V providing around 92% protection, and a product by US company Johnson & Johnson lagging behind at 66% effectiveness.”

Variant issue not just from genetic mutations – but recombination which it would seem coronaviruses are the master – https://www.deccanherald.com/science-and-environment/the-coronavirus-is-a-master-of-mixing-its-genome-worrying-scientists-948133.html

“The novel coronavirus has a propensity to mix large chunks of its genome when it makes copies of itself. Unlike small mutations, which are like typos in the sequence, a phenomenon called recombination resembles a major copy-and-paste error in which are like typos in the sequence, a phenomenon called recombination resembles a major copy-and-paste error in which the second half of a sentence is completely overwritten with a slightly different version.”

“Recombination, in contrast, is rife in coronaviruses. Researchers at Vanderbilt University Medical Center led by the virus expert Mark Denison recently studied how things go awry during replication in three coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID. The team found that all three viruses showed “extensive” recombination when replicating separately in the laboratory.”

“Munster and his collaborators suggested that recombination is likely how both SARS-CoV-2 and the virus behind the original SARS outbreak in 2003 both ended up with a version of the spike protein that allows them to deftly enter human cells.”

Interesting to note if you add the confirmed per capita and fully vaccinated per capita perhaps that is the metric to watch? US at 10%. US death below 4K. Mexico zoomed up to 3K deaths.

CA taken its lead back – Indiana has dropped significantly from its 1506 reporting.

LA county continues to be on top

Interesting to see the South still dominate with the cold pushing into the North it will be interesting to see if confirmations shift north

LA deaths still not dropping

Covid19mathblog.com

Some scary outcomes for covid for kids – striking at 1/5000 – paediatric inflammatory multi-system syndrome (PIMS) – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/05/up-to-100-uk-children-a-week-hospitalised-with-rare-post-covid-disease

“It often involves rashes, a temperature of up to 40C, dangerously low blood pressure and abdominal problems, and in serious cases its symptoms are like those of toxic shock or the potentially fatal condition sepsis. Two children are thought to have died of PIMS since the pandemic began.”

“Between 12 and 15 children every day are believed to have fallen ill since the start of January. Cases have emerged in many places, but most have been in London and south-east England, areas where the new Kent variant of the coronavirus has driven a sharp rise in infections”

“Part of a presentation she made to a recent webinar attended by more than 1,000 paediatricians showed that, in a “first national report” into 78 patients with PIMS who ended up in intensive care, 47% were of Afro-Caribbean origin and 28% of Asian background – between five and six times higher than the 14% of the UK’s population who are BAME.”

“Lyall’s dataset, based on figures from 21 of the 23 paediatric intensive care units (PICUs), also disclosed that 78% of patients had no underlying illnesses and until PIMS had been in good health, which paediatricians said was “very worrying”; the average age of children getting PIMS is 11, but ranges from eight to 14; two-thirds (67%) were boys; only 22% had Covid when their PIMS emerged, while the others had already had it; and almost one in four of those who end up in a PICU develop a heart condition called coronary artery dilation, which is potentially fatal.”

““PIMS can be very serious. But we have seen fewer seriously unwell children [in the second wave] because there is earlier recognition and earlier treatment,” she said.

“It remains rare, and we don’t think parents should worry, as it is far more likely not to affect their child than to affect them. The numbers are low and [PIMS] would not be a reason to keep schools from opening. The median age [of onset] is nine years. We would not close playgrounds.””

Vaccine side effect – Covid Arm – https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/covid-arm-vaccine-side-effect/509-fdf47498-ab0c-4c0b-abc7-2ddf5b0a38cd

““It was almost exactly eight days after my vaccine, so all of a sudden it showed up and I was like, wow, my arm’s really burning," said Kara Leeper, a speech therapist living in Los Angeles. More than a week after she was vaccinated, she noticed a red rash on her arm where the needle went in. "When I looked at it, it was just a big red bull’s eye rash and it itched and hurt and was warm to the touch,” she said.

Though she said the rash on her arm only lasted about 48 hours, she still wondered what could of caused it.

“So it’s either a immune reaction, but delayed, So it’s your immune system revving up. Or it’s just reacting to one of the components in the vaccine," said Dr. Mark Shalauta who is the Co-chair of the vaccine committee in Rancho Bernardo after seeing the photos. "But it’s not really an allergy, so it’s not dangerous and absolutely OK to get the next one.”

He says that the vaccine is still safe and effective and there is easy ways to cope with pain or discomfort that the shot may cause like a cold compress or an antihistamine. But keep an eye on it so that it doesn’t get worse.”

The data seems to point to our lifestyle and what we eat is a strong predictor of how we cope and conquer covid. Whole food and lower meat content diet certainly seems to be the direction. A new report out by the Chatham House highlights the issue with our food system we have cultured – and noted the concern in terms of zoonotic diseases e.g. Covid-19 But there are many positive outcomes when lifestyle/diet is changed as highlighted – https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2021-02/2021-02-03-food-system-biodiversity-loss-benton-et-al_0.pdf

“Our food system has been shaped over past decades by the ‘cheaper food’ paradigm.

Policies and economic structures have aimed to produce ever more food at ever

lower cost Intensified agricultural production degrades soils and ecosystems,

driving down the productive capacity of land and necessitating even more intensive

food production to keep pace with demand. Growing global consumption

of cheaper calories and resource-intensive foods aggravates these pressures.

— Current food production depends heavily on the use of inputs such as fertilizer,

pesticides, energy, land and water, and on unsustainable practices such as

monocropping and heavy tilling. This has reduced the variety of landscapes

and habitats, threatening or destroying the breeding, feeding and/or nesting

of birds, mammals, insects and microbial organisms, and crowding out many

native plant species.

— As a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, our food system is

also driving climate change, which further degrades habitats and causes species

to disperse to new locations. In turn, this brings new species into contact and

competition with each other, and creates new opportunities for the emergence

of infectious disease.”

“The impacts of animal farming, and of removing and fragmenting natural habitats,

are not limited to biodiversity loss – the wider risks to human health have been

brought into sharp focus by the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 is a ‘zoonotic’

disease, meaning that it originated in non-human animals and passed over to

humans. It is the latest in a series of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) to have

reached epidemic or pandemic levels over recent decades; the majority of these

EIDs have come from wild or farmed animals”

Big time catch up US deaths soar to over 5K

1506 from Indiana! – The time series in the dataset will be all messed up again as 1506 deaths didn’t all just happened – https://www.wishtv.com/news/coronavirus/indiana-audit-finds-1500-additional-covid-19-deaths/

“More than 1,500 coronavirus deaths will be added to the Indiana State Department of Health’s dashboard on Thursday.

The announcement was made Wednesday during Gov. Eric Holcomb’s weekly virtual briefing. An audit of COVID-19 deaths, done in a push for more accuracy by the state, found the added fatalities.

The state health department on Wednesday reported the statewide death toll stands at more than 9,700. The number of new positive cases Wednesday came in at nearly 1,500, and the number of people hospitalized with the virus is 1,582.”

Dispersion of death all over Indiana

LA county still the lead

LA still up there but coming down in confirmation – but not deaths

Covid19mathblog.com

Israel is vaccinating like there is no tomorrow when compared to other countries. Currently those fully vaccinated over 20% vs US at 2%- https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/israel-coronavirus-vaccines

“More than six weeks after Israel began a COVID-19 vaccine rollout that has left the rest of the world trailing in its wake, public health experts are breathing a sigh of relief as the effects finally seem to be kicking in.”

“follow-up studies conducted by one of Israel’s largest HMOs, Maccabi Healthcare Services, suggest that Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, which has been used for most of the shots given so far, is working almost as well in the real world as it did in clinical trials, with over 90% efficacy after two doses. This was not a guarantee: Drugs and vaccines may perform slightly differently outside of the controlled bounds of clinical testing”

US deaths under 4K but not by much. Mexico UK Brazil over 1k

Deaths and confirmation worldwide is trending down

Similar to last few days TX leads confirmation CA lead deaths for the US

TX confirmation less disperse today

LA leading both categories. Harris County confirmation second place at 2664

LA county still falling in confirmation. Death still staying up.

Covid19mathblog.com

The argument to vaccine the younger (<65) – it would have to be to reduce transmission. Based on this report the most transmission from age 20-49- – wonder why this report also doesn’t make its way to school teacher unions not wanting to teach in person – under 19 less than 6.1% of all transmission – yet this report states school reopening increased total infections by 26% but if we just talk HS and below how is that? Very agenda driven “news” report – https://www.axios.com/young-adults-coronavirus-spread-a998cf65-fcf3-472b-a1ed-e29938356351.html

“In October, after a large portion of U.S. students returned to school, this age group was still responsible for about 72% of new infections.

The study estimates that school reopenings increased total infections by about 26% as of October, and deaths by about 6% — because children and teenagers spread the virus to adults, who are "more transmission efficient."”

“The bottom line: "This suggests that additional interventions to adults aged 20-49, including rapid mass vaccination if vaccines prove to block transmission, could bring resurgent COVID-19 epidemics under control," the authors conclude.”

Well it looks like one could delay the second shot for 12 weeks? I am still not sure why one would want to do that given first shot is only around 50% – https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-53c40e579c3209a77ffc6ca798aff1a7

“Britain’s health chief has hailed a new study suggesting that a single dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine provides a high level of protection for 12 weeks, saying it supports the government’s contentious strategy of delaying the second shot so it can protect more people quickly with a first dose.

Britain’s decision has been criticized as risky by other European countries, but Health Secretary Matt Hancock said Wednesday that the study “backs the strategy that we’ve taken and it shows the world that the Oxford vaccine works effectively.”

Hancock’s comments came after Oxford University released a study showing the vaccine cut transmission of the virus by two-thirds and prevented severe disease.”

“Pfizer recommends that its shots be given 21 days apart and has not endorsed the U.K. government’s decision to lengthen the time between doses.”

Another collateral damage from our response to covid – Death linked to alcohol increased 16% – funny to think they cant see the cause of this – hmmm out of job/business shut down/savings dwindling/ not seeing friends and relatives – drinking/drugs are done as one is not happy with their current present moment – https://www.businessinsider.com/deaths-from-alcohol-spiked-during-covid-19-lockdown-2021-2

“Deaths linked to alcohol misuse in 2020 were up 16%, per stats from England and Wales.

The causes are uncertain, but it could be related to the stress caused by the pandemic.

More services are needed to support those with alcohol dependence, said one expert.”

“A survey of 83 countries published in the journal BMJ Open found that 36% of people increased their alcohol intake while taking measures to avoid COVID-19.”

“She also noted that people with an alcohol-use disorder may not be receiving the right medical case, either through reluctance to visit a hospital during the pandemic, or because those services were reduced.

More delayed consequences of alcohol abuse, such as cancer, could also occur increase in the future, she noted.

Professor Julia Sinclair, Chair of the Addictions Faculty at the UK’s Royal College of Psychiatrists, told the Science Media Center that the high-rate of alcohol-related deaths is "as tragic as it is avoidable."

She argued that the UK National health Service should be better equipped to deal with the rise in people drinking at a dangerous levels.”

Not a good trend for vaccination in the US

US Over 3K Deaths

TX leads confirmation with CA leading deaths

Continued dispersion in confirmation in Texas

LA county leads all counties in both categories—in fact first time only county with 2K+ confirmation in the country in awhile

Looks like Cook County IL doing some reclassification as deaths are negative

Covid19mathblog.com

India certainly has been an interesting data point in Covid as noted in this article https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/01/962821038/the-mystery-of-indias-plummeting-covid-19-cases

“Last September, India was confirming nearly 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day. It was on track to overtake the United States to become the country with the highest reported COVID-19 caseload in the world. Hospitals were full. The Indian economy nosedived into an unprecedented recession.

But four months later, India’s coronavirus numbers have plummeted. Late last month, on Jan. 26, the country’s Health Ministry confirmed a record low of about 9,100 new daily cases — in a country of nearly 1.4 billion people. It was India’s lowest daily tally in eight months. On Monday, India confirmed about 11,000 cases.”

“India is one of several countries — mostly in Asia, Africa and South America — that have mandated masks in public spaces. Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared on TV wearing a mask very early in the coronavirus pandemic. The messaging was clear.

In many Indian municipalities, including the megacity Mumbai, police hand out tickets — fines of 200 rupees ($2.75) — to violators. Mumbai’s mask mandate even applies outdoors, to joggers on the beach and passengers in open-air rickshaws.

"Every time they fine a person 200 rupees, they also give them a mask to wear," explains Fernandes, a Mumbai native. "Very stereotypically, we [Indians] are known to break rules! You see traffic rules being broken all the time," she says, laughing.

But in the pandemic, when it comes to masks, "the police, the monitoring, enforcement — all that was ramped up," she says.”

“One study by Indian scientists from Chennai and Pune, published in October, found that low- and lower-middle-income countries with less access to health care facilities, hygiene and sanitation actually have lower numbers of COVID-19 deaths per capita. Another study by scientists at India’s Dr. Rajendra Prasad Government Medical College, published in August, found that COVID-19 deaths per capita are lower in countries where people are exposed to a diverse range of microbes and bacteria.”

“a mortality rate of 1.44% — much lower than that of the United States or many European countries. (But Brazil’s death rate is higher than India’s, and Brazil and India are both lower-middle-income countries.)”

“A study of nearly 85,000 coronavirus cases in India, published in November in the journal Science, found that the COVID-19 mortality rate actually decreases there after age 65 — possibly because Indians who live past that age are such outliers. There are so few of them.”

“India’s numbers went down exactly when experts predicted they would spike: in October, when millions of people gathered for the Hindu festivals of Diwali and Durga Puja. It’s when air pollution is also worst, and experts feared that would exacerbate the pandemic too.

Cases have also declined despite what many thought would be a superspreader event: tens of thousands of Indian farmers camping out on the capital’s outskirts for months.”

Our data confirms this – I go with lifestyle – more open ventilation less HVAC and diet more plant based – those that are older have survived a lot of germs/microbes so stronger immune system than developed countries – plus all here get the BCG vaccine.

More mutations discussion – https://bgr.com/2021/02/01/coronavirus-infection-dual-strains-mutation/

“Doctors from Brazil found an even more dangerous type of coronavirus infection, a dual infection with two separate strains.

The researchers detailed two COVID-19 cases with people in their mid-30s who were infected with both the Brazilian mutation (P.2) and a different strain circulating in Brazil.

These co-infections could lead to the creation of additional mutations, the researchers said.”

Daily tracking of Vaccine administration in US – looks like we are slowing down in administrating the vaccine.

US only 2K deaths – no other country above 1K

TX leads in confirmation – CA leads in Death for the US

Wow the center of TX is showing huge dispersion of confirmation

LA county still leads the country in deaths and confirmation

Death for LA county is being very stubborn and not coming down as confirmations fall.

Covid19mathblog.com

Looks like the variant in S. Africa getting people reinfected even though already got covid already. Positive news this reinfection is not as severe in fact he doesn’t have any symptom right now.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/israeli-coronavirus-survivor-gets-reinfected-with-south-african-variant-657381

“Yaffe is currently participating in a study conducted by Efrati where he evaluates people’s immune system after recovering from coronavirus.

"Since then we have been following him, and over time we have seen that with everyone, the antibodies go down – but we do not know if this is enough to prevent another disease. It should be emphasized that antibodies do not necessarily prevent infection," Efrati added in the report.

In his re-examination upon his return from Turkey, Yaffe was confirmed to have the South African strain. "He had the virus, but he wasn’t sick," Efrati said. "His wife, daughters and grandchildren also lived with him – but none of them were infected."”

This is a pessimistic assessment of the new variant – but perhaps just a way to get more people to take vaccine – https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/epidemiologist-warns-covid-19-hurricane-coming-1121577/

“Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm issued dire warnings about the potential spread of the new, more contagious Covid-19 variants, saying that they could produce a surge of cases in the United States to levels “we have not seen yet in this country.”

Dr. Osterholm, who is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and a member of President Biden’s transition team advising on coronavirus, told Meet the Press host Chuck Todd that he expects to see cases of the new Covid-19 variants to surge “in the next six to 14 weeks.” As a result, he said the US may need to execute a major shift its vaccine strategy, focusing on administering the first dose of the vaccine to as many people as possible instead of trying to get people their second doses.

“We still want to get two doses in everyone, but I think right now, in advance of this surge, we need to get as many one-doses in as many people over 65 as we possibly can, to reduce serious illness and deaths that are going to occur over the weeks ahead,” Osterholm said.”

More melatonin news in preventing infection of covid – they actually sell melatonin inhalers similar to vap tools -google it – I will try it out bonus to get better sleep- https://scitechdaily.com/melatonin-produced-in-the-lungs-prevents-covid-19-infection/

“The hormone acts as a barrier against SARS-CoV-2, blocking the expression of genes that encode proteins in cells serving as viral entry points, according to a study by researchers at the University of São Paulo.

Melatonin synthesized in the lungs acts as a barrier against SARS-CoV-2, preventing expression of genes that encode proteins in cells such as resident macrophages in the nose and pulmonary alveoli, and epithelial cells lining the alveoli, all of which are entry points for the virus. The hormone, therefore, prevents infection of these cells by the virus and inhibits the immune response so that the virus remains in the respiratory tract for a few days, eventually leaving to find another host.

The discovery by researchers at the University of São Paulo (USP), in Brazil, helps understand why some people are not infected or do not manifest symptoms of COVID-19 even when reliably diagnosed as carriers of the virus by RT-PCR. In addition, it offers the prospect of nasal administration of melatonin, in drops or as a spray, to prevent disease from developing in pre-symptomatic patients.”

Sunday reports are the best if it represented reality under 1.8K deaths in US

Wow IA leads US death at 250 – followed by CA. CA leads confirmation

Deaths in IA very disperse likely a timing issue for reporting.

LA leads all counties still – Polk County IA shows up but in 8 place

LA falling in confirmation – deaths are still staying up.