Covid19mathblog.com

21st day of the year in the 21st year in the 21st century….

As noted before PCR test involves a variable Cycle Threshold (CT) the higher the CT the higher “amplification” to find what you are looking for. There was no standard and that the only state requiring reporting the Ct was FL and that started in Dec. Also an important note to know which I have pointed out – Flu confirmation NEVER included asymptomatic carriers – no testing was ever done or reported on NON-symptomatic carrier. Covid is ground breaking in that PCR test done on non-asymptomatic and tracked with symptomatic.

WHO has now come out discussing normalizing the Ct https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

“WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2). This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.

Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.”

Being POSITVE with a high Ct does not necessarily make one contagious or even infected. This may also alter death reporting IF depending on PCR result to confirm death via covid vs something else.

This is not being reported to reduce the severity of the issue but to highlight the confusion to understand the truth in all this. The amount of death are so high even if HALF of the numbers are wrong this is still an issue but how one responds could be altered if the truth in the numbers were clearly understood.

A big number post again – US 4.375K deaths – with UK, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany above 1K

TX leads confirmation over CA – but CA still takes the death lead.

LA still leads all county

Big dispersion in TX confirmation.

LA county even though high – is declining rapidly in confirmation. Hopefully death will follow quickly.

Covid19mathblog.com

The worse case scenario for vaccines and even immunity from previous infection – variant shows immunity to antibodies from previous infection! Its time to just get healthy. – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.18.427166v1.full.pdf

“SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2, a novel lineage of the coronavirus causing COVID-19, contains multiple mutations

within two immunodominant domains of the spike protein. Here we show that this lineage exhibits

complete escape from three classes of therapeutically relevant monoclonal antibodies. Furthermore

501Y.V2 shows substantial or complete escape from neutralizing antibodies in COVID-19 convalescent

plasma. These data highlight the prospect of reinfection with antigenically distinct variants and may

foreshadow reduced efficacy of current spike-based vaccines.”

“N501Y has been shown to increase affinity for the human ACE2 receptor, which together with the repeated and

independent evolution of 501Y containing lineages25,26,31, strongly argues for enhanced transmissibility of

these new variants. Here we show that the 501Y.V2 lineage, that contains nine spike mutations, and

rapidly emerged in South Africa during the second half of 2020, is largely resistant to neutralizing

antibodies elicited by infection with previously circulating lineages. This suggests that, despite the many

people who have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2 globally and are presumed to have accumulated

some level of immunity, new variants such as 501Y.V2 pose a significant re-infection risk.”

“the data herein suggest that

most individuals infected with previous SARS-CoV-2 lineages will have minimal or no detectable

neutralization activity against 501Y.V2. T”

“he speed and scope of 501Y.V2 mediated immune escape from pre-existing neutralizing

antibodies highlight the urgent requirement for rapidly adaptable vaccine design platforms, and the need

to identify less mutable viral targets for incorporation into future immunogens.”

An interesting article highlighting the fact the virus is not killing us – its our response to the virus and some of us our body response is fatal. – In this article they focus on rogue antibodies vs. the cytokine storms. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00149-1

“Early in the pandemic, researchers suggested that some people have an overactive immune response to COVID infection. Immune-system signalling proteins called cytokines can ramp up to dangerous levels, leading to ‘cytokine storms’ and damage to the body’s own cells. Clinical trials have now shown that some drugs that broadly dampen immune activity seem to reduce death rates in critically ill people, if administered at the right time.

But scientists studying COVID are increasingly also highlighting the role of autoantibodies: rogue antibodies that attack either elements of the body’s immune defences or specific proteins in organs such as the heart. In contrast to cytokine storms, which tend to cause systemic, short-duration problems, autoantibodies are thought to result in targeted, longer-term damage, says immunologist Akiko Iwasaki, a colleague of Ring’s at Yale.”

“In late September, a group led by Jean-Laurent Casanova at the Rockefeller University in New York City reported that more than 10% of 987 individuals with severe COVID-19 had antibodies that attacked and blocked the action of type 1 interferon molecules, which normally help to bolster the immune response against foreign pathogens1. That was a striking proportion, the researchers say, because people’s antibody repertoires are normally very dissimilar, and noone in a control group for the study had these antibodies. The researchers also saw the antibodies in people before their COVID-19 infection, so Casanova thinks that some people could be genetically predisposed to produce them. And the autoantibodies were more common in men than women — a possible factor in why COVID seems to hit men harder.”

“Iwasaki, Ring and others screened 194 patients and hospital workers with varying severities of COVID for a wide range of autoantibodies. Their study, which was posted online in December and has not yet been peer reviewed, found a higher prevalence of autoantibodies against the immune system in infected individuals than in uninfected people3. They found autoantibodies that attacked B cells, as well as some that attacked interferon.

But this study also suggested that SARS-CoV-2 might cause the body to generate autoantibodies that attack its own tissues. Some of the infected individuals had autoantibodies against proteins in their blood vessels, heart and brain. This was particularly intriguing because many of the symptoms seen in the pandemic are linked to these organs. It’s unclear whether COVID-19 infection caused the body to start making these autoantibodies or whether infected people had them already. Iwasaki says they are hoping to study other cases to establish whether there is a causal link; that would require obtaining more blood samples from before people become infected.”

“The autoantibody theory might explain some of the delay in the onset of severe symptoms in COVID-19. If evoked by the cellular damage and inflammation stoked by viral infection, as Lee and others think, autoantibodies would take a couple of weeks to build up in the body. This, he says, could be why much of the damage to tissues such as the lungs appears so long after a person develops symptoms such as fever. In this way, autoimmunity might be the real culprit behind the deadly destruction that continues after the coronavirus has cleared. “Clinicians are thinking, ‘Oh, this virus is so deadly, we’ve got to get rid of the virus.’ But then when you talk to the pathologists, they’re like, ‘Yeah, so we’re seeing all this damage, but not seeing much virus,’” Lee says.”

“If an autoimmunity element exists either in predisposing people to COVID-19 or in the fallout from the infection, there might be treatment implications. Casanova says that in cases in which pre-existing autoimmunity against interferon might put people at greater risk of falling ill, then blood tests for autoantibodies, which are becoming more available in research laboratories and university hospitals, could help to identify them.

And if these people become infected with SARS-CoV-2, Casanova suggests, they could receive supplementation as early as is practical with interferon-β, which is not as prone to attack from the immune system as are other interferons. Last November, a preliminary study found that an inhaled form of interferon-β seemed to improve the clinical condition of people with COVID, prompting a larger trial of this therapy9.”

“Even before autoantibodies came into focus, the idea that a cytokine storm might be a culprit meant that studies were under way to see whether immunosuppressive steroids such as dexamethasone, or the arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab, could be used to calm immune systems set awry by COVID. The World Health Organization now “strongly recommends” the use of dexamethasone in severe cases, and the United Kingdom is using the arthritis drugs for people with severe COVID after a clinical trial on 7 January10 suggested that they cut death rates in patients in intensive care.”

Data back up now…US is coming down only 2.7K deaths still Germany UK Mexico and Brazil over 1K

CA leads all states in both categories

LA leads followed by the adjacent counties for the entire country

There is good news – LA looks to have passed it peaks and all things points to downward decline in confirmation and deaths!

Covid19mathblog.com

Start off with the positive – Pfizer Covid vaccines makes more antibodies than IF one was infected! – https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/pfizer-covid-vaccine-makes-more-antibodies-than-infection-health-ministry-655844

“The Pfizer coronavirus vaccination causes more antibodies to be created than in people who were infected with the novel coronavirus and recovered, Israel’s Health Ministry stated during a meeting of the Knesset’s Constitution, Law and Justice Committee on Monday.

"Regarding the vaccine – there is a surprising thing here that in the data we saw during the approval of Pfizer’s vaccine – the level of antibodies it produces is higher than for those who became ill naturally. I do not know if there is another such disease in which the vaccine will protect better than infection with the disease itself," said Dr. Roy Singer, Deputy Director of the Department of Epidemiology at the Health Ministry.”

Okay the rest is downhill….

CA has paused Moderna vaccine batch as allergic reactions create anaphylactic shocks – https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/01/18/coronavirus-california-calls-for-pause-investigation-after-allergic-reactions-to-moderna-vaccine-batch/

“An abnormally high number of people experienced anaphylactic shock, a severe allergic reaction that requires immediate medical attention, after receiving a shot of the Moderna vaccine at one San Diego vaccination site, Dr. Erica Pan said in statement Sunday night. While the number was fewer than 10, the cluster of negative reactions prompted the California Department of Public Health to recommend pausing the administration of some 330,000 doses from the batch, which had been distributed throughout the state, until an investigation was complete.

Santa Clara County had received 21,800 shots from the batch, which was identified as Lot 41L20A, and shortly after the state issued its recommendation, the county responded by instructing local providers to also halt usage of its allotment from that batch. None of the doses had yet to be administered within the county, officials said. Additionally, they said, there has been no evidence of increased incidents of adverse reactions in Santa Clara County. In Alameda County, health officials said some local providers had received doses from the batch but that there also had been no unusual responses to the vaccine reported to county health.”

“The rate of anaphylaxis in the Moderna vaccine was expected to be about one in every 100,000, officials said. Of 1.9 million first doses of the Pfizer vaccine studied by the CDC, there were only 21 cases of anaphylaxis observed, in a report published earlier this month.”

Over 12K become infected after first shot in 2 weeks in Israel – you really need to get the second shot- https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/thousands-of-israelis-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-after-first-vaccine-shot-1.9462478

“Over 12,400 Israeli residents have tested positive for COVID-19 after being vaccinated, among them 69 people who had already gotten the second dose, which began to be administered early last week, the Health Ministry reported.

This amounts to 6.6 percent of the 189,000 vaccinated people who took coronavirus tests after being vaccinated.”

“Some 2.15 million people have been vaccinated in Israel over the past month, of whom 300,000 have already gotten a second dose.

At this stage it is still difficult to draw definitive conclusions about the effectiveness of the vaccine, for better or worse. In some groups of inoculated people during the different post-vaccine periods, the ratio of positive tests corresponds to the ratio of positive tests in the general population, the overwhelming majority of whom were not yet vaccinated. There could also be issues related to the fact that most of those vaccinated first and who have thus accumulated the most post-vaccination time are over 60 years old.”

Never good to hear news like this – but a full “health” exam is still not done – points to just because you got it once you don’t want to push your fate too much and take chances you don’t need to – treatment for Covid is still not standardized which is very sad – lung infection Tylenol Really? Awful – https://people.com/health/18-year-old-dies-after-contracting-covid-19-for-second-time/

“An 18-year-old from Denver has died after contracting the novel coronavirus for the second time, according to family and friends.

Wilber Portillo on Nov. 19 during his second bout with COVID-19, his girlfriend Andrea Ferrel told KDVR.

"He was just getting better. He had about a week of COVID-free before getting sick again," Ferrel said.”

“Two months after recovering and testing negative for the virus, Portillo came down with a fever after attending a party, according to Castillo.”

“Ferrel told KDVR that Portillo went to the doctor’s office on Nov. 18, where he was told he had a "really strong infection in his lungs" and was advised to take Tylenol.

"That was the last [time] I heard from him," she recalled. "He just went to sleep."

Portillo died in his sleep, according to Castillo, and the COVID-19 test he took during his last doctor’s visit came back positive two days after his death.”

Interesting report – China building quarantine center – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTXdxoW7phQ&feature=youtu.be

Here is what we have for China – there is some confirmation rise in the data – though very small when US is reporting 250K a day and they show only 225

The weekend data lull is real only US above 1K

NY leads in Death over CA first time in awhile

Still LA leads all county – lots of dispersion seen in NY data given only Kings county showed up in the top list

Lots of dispersion in NE

Perhaps the worse is behind LA

Covid19mathblog.com

Another variant form….it is a virus…. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-17/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-update-pandemic

“Researchers have identified the strain in a dozen counties and have linked it to several large outbreaks in Santa Clara County. The California Department of Public Health said it’s not yet clear whether the variant is highly contagious or is just being identified frequently as lab work becomes more sophisticated.”

““This virus continues to mutate and adapt, and we cannot let down our guard,” said Dr. Sara Cody, Santa Clara County health officer and director of the Public Health Department, in a prepared statement.”

“The variant carries three mutations in the spike protein, which the virus uses to attach to and enter cells, said Dr. Charles Chiu, a virologist at UC San Francisco.

The two COVID-19 vaccines on the market in the U.S., produced by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, train the body’s immune system to target the spike protein. This means that, in theory, the virus mutations could alter the spike protein to a degree that the vaccines become less effective.”

“The variant is not the same as the highly contagious strain first identified last month in the United Kingdom. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Friday that the U.K. variant, known as B117, could become the dominant coronavirus strain in the U.S. by March because it spreads so quickly.

Los Angeles County on Saturday confirmed its first case of the B117 variant in a man who had spent time in the county but is now in isolation in Oregon.”

Not the best of stats not the worst…. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9157893/Covid-UK-One-eight-recovered-Covid-patients-DIE-140-days.html

“One-in-eight ‘recovered’ Covid patients ‘DIE within 140 days’: Study finds devastating toll on people who were hospitalised – with a THIRD readmitted within weeks

A third of recovered Covid patients are readmitted to hospital within five months

Leicester University found one-in-eight of the Covid patients then died

The long-term effects of Covid can cause many to develop heart problems”

With variant forms and awful statistics from the vaccine front to recovery front we really should be focus on the core message which is to become healthier. As noted Vaccine is not helping reduce transmission – nor will getting healthy but the objective to reduce impact of covid is the right thing to do. https://theecologist.org/2020/dec/08/go-vegan-slash-covid-19-risk

“People with obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes and heart disease were far more likely to need intensive care and require a ventilator.

Vegans tend to have a lower risk of all these conditions and a varied, vegan diet can help both prevent and reverse them. All these diseases carry serious health risks and Covid-19 has added another layer.

Of course, going vegan won’t prevent you from catching Covid-19 so you still need to observe all the normal precautions. What it may do, though, is lower your risk of suffering complications or severe symptoms – it could even save your life. If enough people do it, going vegan could also lower the risk of future pandemics. ”

“A study published in the journal Obesity Reviews revealed that people living with obesity who get Covid-19, are more than twice as likely to be admitted to hospital than people of a healthy weight.

This group was almost three-quarters more likely to need intensive care and 48 percent more likely to die. People with diabetes also have a higher risk of dying in hospital with Covid-19 compared to those without diabetes.

Covid-19 can cause acute breathing difficulties in some people, which puts extra pressure on the heart, so for people with high blood pressure or heart disease, it can be extremely serious.

Research suggests that having high blood pressure doubles the risk of severe Covid-19 while heart disease is even worse and may increase the risk by as much as five-fold.

The good news is, a healthy vegan diet can help prevent and reverse all these conditions and not only will you benefit from improving your general health, you can lower your risk of severe Covid-19. “

“Research shows that vegans tend to weigh less than vegetarians and meat-eaters and experts agree that a vegan diet can help you lose weight and maintain a healthy weight without having to worry about portion size.

Vegans have a lower risk of type 2 diabetes, the type associated with diet and lifestyle. A 2019 Harvard study of more than 300,000 people revealed that eating a vegan diet could cut the risk of developing type 2 diabetes by almost a quarter. In the same year, a study of 12,000 people found that those who ate mostly plant-based foods were 32 percent less likely to die from heart disease. “

“Writing in an open letter with Viva!, 15 top doctors have advised that going vegan is the quickest and cheapest way of fighting obesity, type 2 diabetes and heart disease – major risk factors for Covid-19.

The letter was signed by clinicians including Emanuel Goldman, a world-renowned professor of microbiology and consultant haematologist, Dr Shireen Kassam, nursing expert Baroness Watkins of Tavistock and Professor Richard Kock, emerging diseases specialist at the Royal Veterinary College at the, University of London.

Going vegan could not only lower your risk of severe Covid-19, if enough of us do it, it could lower the risk of future pandemics.

It’s likely that Covid-19 came from a wet market in China where poultry, civets, snakes, pangolins, bats, beavers, foxes, dogs and other animals, many captured illegally in the wild, were caged for sale.

The dreadful, cramped conditions and mix of wild and domestic creatures, alongside throngs of people is a pandemic in the making.”

“As industrialised farming has spread around with world, diseases have followed. Densely packed sheds containing stressed animals, confined in filthy surroundings and being bred for fast growth has lowered their immunity.

It’s an ideal environment for a mutating virus or antibiotic-resistant superbugs to emerge. It’s no surprise, therefore, that three in four new or emerging infectious disease come from animals.

Many scientists thought the next pandemic would be caused by an avian influenza (bird flu) virus emerging from a poultry or pig farm.

The 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic came from pigs in Mexico. Several strains of bird flu have infected humans – H5N1, H5N6 and H7N9 – and here will be more to come.”

“Viva!’s founder and director, Juliet Gellatley, says: “We must have a societal shift in the way we view animals, the environment and our diets. We must stop eating animals.

"It is time to finally make the connection between animal agriculture and environmental destruction, antibiotic resistance and disease outbreak. We must stop tearing down forests to make way for animal farming or to grow animal feed.

"We must protect ecosystems and prioritise the safety and freedom of wild animals, leaving them to live their lives away from human contact. If we don’t take urgent and far-reaching action now, eating animals will be the death of us”.”

A good Sunday report – US at 1749 no other country above 1K death

Looks like potential global peak of confirmation is passed us. Death should start coming off.

CA continues to lead the US

LA county still the US county leader by far

Confirmation still very south focused for the US – which is interesting given the temps

Looks very promising for LA to say they have past their peak in confirmation and deaths

Covid19mathblog.com

Not the best two papers to start a new week – but they represent good food for thought.

This paper is from Stanford documenting the most restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (mrNPI) e.g. stay at home and business closures were not significant at reducing as compared to the less restrictive policies. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eci.13484

“While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions”

“We first estimate COVID-19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US”

Here is an NBER working paper documenting/projecting the deaths from collateral damage as result of covid economic impact. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf

“We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, life

expectancy, and mortality rates. We fit a Vector-autoregression (VAR) for the overall US

population and for groups identified based on gender and race. We find that shocks to

unemployment are followed by statistically significant increases in mortality rates and declines in

life expectancy. We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic

recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related

unemployment to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock,

depending on race/gender, resulting in a 3.0% increase in mortality rate and a 0.5% drop in life

expectancy over the next 15 years for the overall American population. We also predict that the

shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while

white men might suffer large consequences over longer horizons. These figures translate in a

staggering 0.89 million additional deaths over the next 15 years.”

“the COVID-19 unemployment shock is about 3.17 standard deviations larger than the typical shock to the unemployment rate for the overall population (about

2.68% in magnitude)”

“For the overall population, the increase in the death

rate following the COVID-19 pandemic implies a staggering 0.89 and 1.37 million excess deaths

over the next 15 and 20 years, respectively. These numbers correspond to 0.24% and 0.37%

of the projected US population at the 15- and 20-year horizons, respectively.”

“Without any doubt, lockdowns

save lives, but they also contribute to the decline in real activity that can have severe consequences on health. Policy-makers should therefore consider combining lockdowns with policy

interventions meant to reduce economic distress, guarantee access to health care, and facilitate

effective economic reopening under health care policies to limit SARS-CoV-19 spread”

“there are several reasons explaining why unemployment could have contemporaneous

effects on mortality rates (not commuting to work, no risk of work related deaths, etc.). The

finding that an unemployment shock is eventually followed by an increase in mortality and a

decline in life-expectancy is robust to using this different identification strategy. However, when

using this alternative identification assumption, an interesting result emerges with respect to

the short-run dynamics. An increase in unemployment leads to a contemporaneous decline in

mortality rates and to a contemporaneous increase in life-expectancy. This effect quickly reverts in two-three years and in the long-run mortality increases and life expectancy declines, in

line with our benchmark results. In other words, the long-term effect dominates the short-term

dynamics.”

Covid now has overtaken the #1 reason for death in US for the year….Below we compare the deaths from various issues noted in the past – now covid is exceeding all those categories including combining all cancers! Now perhaps this is an over reporting of Covid and other categories we should see a reduction – but we do have excess deaths in the US. Not sure about the rest of the country as I don’t have that data yet.

US Excess Death Weekly Chart (Difference between Green and Red Line Represents the additional deaths than typical year)

US showing Covid leading cause of death

UK in same boat

France still below cancer

Germany still below all cancer and heart disease

Iran similar to Germany but with Heart disease leading death

Italy similar to US and UK

Netherlands Cancer issue still far ahead of Covid – but Covid is second place.

Spain similar to US and UK

S. Korea is an amazing chart when viewing all the above….so far down the list is covid

Same in Japan – very stark difference

China is extreme – but the numbers have to be questioned at this point – unless of course it was designed this way not to impact them….

But then we have Australia who is also showing much less covid deaths

New Zealand on the extreme to

S. Africa Covid is a concern but the regular flu is still more deadly there

Brazil almost passing All Cancer to be the top leading death

Similar in Argentina

Argentina similar to US

Canada Covid is second place to All Cancer. All Cancer has a big lead still.

Not a good reporting day for a weekend….

CA leading – TX second – tx back reporting

Still county basis its LA in far lead

Not too much dispersion in US

Signs of peaking in LA!

Covid19mathblog.com

This shouldn’t be too surprising that if you vaccine the elder there is a chance they will die from it – hopefully small – the older more frailer the increase in odds. The below nursing home patients all 80+ https://nypost.com/2021/01/15/23-die-in-norway-after-receiving-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/amp/

“Twenty-three people died in Norway within days of receiving their first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, with 13 of those deaths — all nursing home patients — apparently related to the side effects of the shots, health officials said.

Common reactions to the vaccine, including fever and nausea, “may have contributed to a fatal outcome in some frail patients,” Sigurd Hortemo, chief physician at the Norwegian Medicines Agency, said in a Friday statement.

All 13 were nursing home patients and at least 80 years old. While officials aren’t expressing serious concern, they are adjusting their guidance on who should receive the vaccine.

The news comes just over a week after officials reported the deaths of just two nursing home residents after they received the Pfizer jab. “

Another common drug – interestingly it is a cholesterol drug. Perhaps a vegan diet – 0 cholesterol – could be a solution? Looking for study that goes beyond the typical demographic stats on deaths and sickness and covers lifestyle – I suspect not many vegans impacted by covid. https://bgr.com/2021/01/15/covid-treatment-drug-cholesterol-fenofibrate-ticor/

“A new study suggests that the anti-cholesterol drug Fenofibrate, also known as Ticor, can help treat coronavirus patients.

In lab testing with the drug, the coronavirus completely went away after just five days.

Clinical trials with Fenofibrate began a few weeks ago and the results should be available in the next few months.”

“some researchers speculate that this is why people with comorbidities like diabetes and heart disease tend to experience more severe coronavirus symptoms. With this information in tow, researchers from Hebrew University began looking at several FDA-approved drugs designed to combat the accumulation of fat. Before long, researchers began to hone in on Fenofibrate, a drug that’s sold under the name Tricor. The drug arrived in the mid-70s and is currently used by upwards of 10 million people with high cholesterol.”

We need common sense brought back to policy makers from NY to UK – https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13759626/doctors-forced-nhs-throw-away-covid-vaccines/

“LOCAL NHS leaders are forcing doctors to throw away Covid vaccines rather than give second doses, a report has revealed.

GPs organising clinics at short notice told the Telegraph that they are being warned against using leftover doses on patients who have already had their first jab.”

Total global deaths over 2 Million with a fatality rate hovering around 2%. US continues to show big numbers 3.4K deaths 215K confirmation

As expected its CA leading the US by large lead.

LA county way up there – NY is creeping on the top list. No TX counties showed up today – probably a datafeed issue here.

LA confirmed per capita 10% now! Positive sign is confirmation may have peak and perhaps death might.

Covid19mathblog.com

Not the best news in this report. Currently only documenting 5 months immunity after getting covid. Article notes even with immunity via confirmation or vaccine you can still transmit it. The vaccine is more to reduce the severity not eliminating transmission https://bgr.com/2021/01/14/coronavirus-immunity-covid-19-survivors-infect-others-siren-study/

“A new study from the UK indicates that coronavirus immunity can last for up to 5 months after infection. The researchers plan to follow the participants for up to 12 months to determine a more accurate estimate.

The study also offers a key finding that was previously unaddressed in COVID-19 research. People who acquire coronavirus immunity after being infected can still contract the virus without experiencing COVID-19 symptoms and then infect others.

As immune people could carry the virus in their nose and throat, it’s crucial for people to continue respecting health measures even after beating COVID-19.”

Potential concern side effect from vaccine – https://www.jpost.com/health-science/13-people-suffered-face-paralysis-after-corona-vaccine-655542

“Some 13 people have experienced mild facial paralysis as a side effect after taking the COVID-19 vaccine, the Health Ministry reported, and estimates are that the number of cases could be higher.

Health officials have raised questions about whether or not to administer the second dose to these individuals, but the Health Ministry is recommending that the second dose be given.”

Sad statistics – more deaths in 2020 regardless if you believe in covid at this point – https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-toll.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Another big death day.

CA leads the US again

LA county again leads all county by a longshot. Harris County TX is showing up second place but 1/3 LA.

A little more dispersion

Perhaps some sign of LA confirmation peaking – not death yet

Covid19mathblog.com

Endemic….this was brought up earlier. Largely as a result of the similarity of the common cold. It would be interesting to see how much the vaccine also limits the common cold. Article notes the relationship and study showing Covid will be an endemic but because of vaccine its outcome will be more inline with the common cold – which if you look at the data it is for the youth. The big conclusion not discussed as it becomes endemic for the elder the key thing will be to get more healthy as a society.

https://www.mic.com/p/coronavirus-could-become-just-a-common-cold-like-illness-a-new-study-says-55202942

“Once we’ve all been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 or the vaccine, the virus will become “endemic,” the Times explains, meaning it’ll still hang around, but at low levels, rarely resulting in the serious symptoms we see now.”

“The researchers referred to six human coronaviruses, including the four responsible for the common cold, as well as SARS and MERS, to help predict SARS-CoV-2’s trajectory, per the Times. All six trigger a similar immune response, but SARS-CoV-2 seems to most closely resemble the four cold coronaviruses, which are endemic and cause only mild illness. (The SARS and MERS coronaviruses led to severe illness but were less widespread.)”

“Based on earlier data, Lavine and colleagues saw that most of us get infected with common cold coronaviruses for the first time when we’re around 3 to 5 years old, on average. We may then become re-infected multiple times, increasing our immunity and spreading the virus in the process, but without getting sick. SARS-CoV-2 may follow a similar path, the researchers assert.

It might be matter of years to decades of natural infections before SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, Lavine told the Times, leaving large-scale illness and death in its wake. But with a quickly administered vaccine, this timeline could look more like a year or even half a year. The vaccine probably wouldn’t eradicate SARS-CoV-2, but instead render it less harmful.”

Interesting the Moderna CEO is saying the same thing now….perpetual earnings outlook? https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/moderna-ceo-says-the-world-will-have-to-live-with-the-coronavirus-forever.html

“Stephane Bancel, CEO of Covid-19 vaccine maker Moderna, warned Wednesday that the virus will be around “forever.”

Public health officials and infectious disease experts have said there is a high likelihood that Covid-19 will become an endemic disease, meaning it will be present at all times, though likely at lower levels than it is now.

“SARS-CoV-2 is not going away,” Bancel said during a panel discussion at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference.”

Once you got covid no need to get vaccine at least not until 5 months – probably should be as effective as the vaccine in timeline – https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/14/recovering-from-covid-gives-similar-level-of-protection-to-vaccine

“People who recover from coronavirus have a similar level of protection against future infection as those who receive a Covid vaccine – at least for the first five months, research suggests.”

Another big death day in the world

CA leads again in US

LA county by a long shot

LA likely still to get worse than better

Covid19mathblog.com

As noted likely to see more issues of vaccine than proportionally happening – but hopefully most issues can be eventually traced to a reason – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-12/pfizer-investigates-post-vaccine-death-for-possible-connection

“Pfizer Inc. and federal health officials are investigating the death of a health-care worker 16 days after the person received the first dose of the company’s Covid-19 vaccine.

So far, the evidence doesn’t suggest a connection, Pfizer said in a statement on Tuesday. The Florida-based physician developed a rare disorder called severe thrombocytopenia that decreases the body’s ability to clot blood and stop internal bleeding.”

A big reporting catch up? US deaths 4K+ Mexico, UK, Brazil, Germany over 1K+ deaths

CA leads by a long shot 551 deaths!

LA county once again the leader of all counties in US

A very southwest centric covid map

Still waiting for LA to peak…..

Covid19mathblog.com

Interesting conclusions from this report – pointing out failure of policy – the root issue of covid deaths not policy driven but from a health perspective of developed countries who are more sedative – https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339/full

“Results: Higher Covid death rates are observed in the [25/65°] latitude and in the [−35/−125°] longitude ranges. The national criteria most associated with death rate are life expectancy and its slowdown, public health context (metabolic and non-communicable diseases (NCD) burden vs. infectious diseases prevalence), economy (growth national product, financial support), and environment (temperature, ultra-violet index). Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia, including lockdown, did not appear to be linked with death rate.

Conclusion: Countries that already experienced a stagnation or regression of life expectancy, with high income and NCD rates, had the highest price to pay. This burden was not alleviated by more stringent public decisions. Inherent factors have predetermined the Covid-19 mortality: understanding them may improve prevention strategies by increasing population resilience through better physical fitness and immunity.”

“Concomitantly to a high life expectancy, the development afforded by an elevated GDP usually favors inactive lifestyles, sedentary behaviors, and obesity (15, 29), increasing the risk for hypertension, diabetes, and CVD, the most frequent comorbidities associated with Covid-19 mortality (30–32). With an epidemiological transition toward more prevalent chronic diseases, countries with high life expectancy have also increased concurrent risks, restraining their adaptability margins.”

Another article on covid and health – this time focused on gut microbiome – highlights a way to avoid long-covid – https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/gut-bacteria-microbiome-covid19-severity-coronavirus-inflammation/

“A first-of-its-kind study has investigated the relationship between COVID-19 severity and the gut microbiome. The observational research suggests specific microbial patterns correlate with disease severity and those bacterial imbalances may account for some cases of “long COVID”.”

“One study found COVID-19 patients presented with unique microbial compositions compared to patients with influenza and healthy controls. Another small pilot study, investigating a cohort of just 15, suggested there may be signs microbiome alterations correlate with COVID-19 severity.”

“This new study, published in the BMJ journal Gut, offers the most detailed investigation to date into the relationship between COVID-19 severity, the gut microbiome, and general inflammatory biomarkers. The research looked at blood and stool samples from 100 COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital, compared to 78 healthy control subjects.”

“The study found significant microbial differences between COVID-19 patients and controls. Species including Bifidobacterium adolescentis, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Eubacterium rectale, which have previously been shown to play a role in immune system activity, were all seen in notably lower volumes in COVID-19 patients. COVID-19 patients also displayed unusually higher volumes of bacterial species including Ruminococcus gnavus, Ruminococcus torques, and Bacteroides dorie.

“Moreover, this perturbed composition exhibited stratification with disease severity concordant with elevated concentrations of inflammatory cytokines and blood markers such as C creative protein, lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transferase,” the researchers report in the study.”

Another Vitamin to be added B6 to fight against covid – https://www.eatthis.com/news-unexpected-vitamin-may-help-weaken-covid-symptoms/

“"There is growing evidence that vitamin B6 exerts a protective effect against chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes by suppressing inflammation, inflammasomes, oxidative stress, and carbonyl stress," the article reads. "Additionally, vitamin B6 deficiency is associated with lower immune function and higher susceptibility to viral infection."”

“Busse also adds that the severity of COVID-19 is based largely on how much inflammation your body creates in response to the virus. Thus, it’s key to keep inflammation levels low by eating a diet that’s rich in fruits, vegetables, and legumes; engaging in regular, moderate exercise; getting plenty of sleep; and managing stress.

"In a good, normal state of health, we would want to have as little inflammation in our bodies as possible before becoming infected with COVID," she says. "Then, we do what we can once you become sick to try and reduce your body’s over-reactiveness to the virus."”

Not a bad reporting day.

California leads the US again

LA leads all US counties still

Not much dispersion – Seattle WA looks to be popping up in confirmation.

LA still not peaking…