Covid19mathblog.com

Happy Chinese New Year – the Year of the Tiger. Tiger year is connected with New Beginnings – hopefully we can reset on all the divisions created by covid.

US Stats to consider/ponder into the new year:

1. 85% of covid hospitalizations have four or more comorbidities
2. 80+% of those hospitalized are unvaccinated
3. The odds of hospitalization after a confirmation is less than 4% (being the max increase in hospitalization / 7 day moving confirmation) average under 1%
4. 50+ over 80% vaccinated
5. Less than 10% of covid deaths under 55 under – less than 2% under 34 less than 0.3% under 25

Point 2 makes it easy to jump on the unvaccinated to make it a PANDEMIC of the UNVACCINATED but that’s not a proper characterization of the issue. Absorb point 3 please. So if 1000 people gets confirmed at max its 40 people being hospitalized most likely less than 10 with 8 being unvaccinated. This 8 is now represented of the entire unvaccinated? Incorporate point 1 – majority being hospitalized have many comorbidity. This shows in general overall poor lifestyle decisions. What is amazing people expect people to change from making poor decisions so quickly? The same people who failed to calculate risk/reward in other lifestyle issues likely miscalculates the vaccine value seems like a reasonable and most likely outcome. Hence point 2 is being observed. These unvaccinated do not makeup a majority of the unvaccinated. It is true the healthy (1 or less comorbidity) probably represents a minority of the US but if they would incorporate a risk/reward profile they would and should be less vaccinated. Many will argue that society is not smart enough to do their own risk/reward – this is not true per point 4 and point 5. As a country we are around 63% vaccinated – but the wisdom of the country is greater than many suggest it is – point 4 shows those at risk SHOULD and DO take the vaccine.

If anything the pandemic is of the unhealthy with a preponderance of those individuals who have made poor lifestyle choices and continue to do so with vaccination decision. To bucket the unvaccinated healthy people is unfair and discriminatory. You are asking the healthy unvaccinated to do something because the majority needs to do it – but yet they get a minor benefit if not a potential long-term risk with little reward. A subset of the hospitalized unvaccinated does not characterize the majority of the unvaccinated (latest MMR (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) shows 33.6% confirmed unvaccinated – so in the above 8/336= 2% represents the entire unvaccinated?) . This is where the politicians and media have mislead the public. The vitriol to the unvaccinated is unwarranted and shameful. The vitriol to the unvaccinated unhealthy perhaps can be reasonable without empathy of the past – these people have a history of poor decisions.

2 years of data lets just learn from the data. Continuing with the school mask mandate and its effect on county transmission below is Oregon where all district required to mask. Once again IF school mask was a major lever to control covid county transmission should be rather all close. However you can see it is best the state figure out what Lake, Gillam, Douglas, Curry. Clastsop, Tillamook – do differently than the rest of the counties.

Just to rule out simple demographic issue difference – we pulled some demographics of the above counties to compare with Jefferson Deschutes and Crook. Jefferson is very similar to Clatsop & Douglas – so there must be actions done that separate Clatsop & Douglas from Jefferson.

School mask mandates are no silver bullet and show no major difference from state after state we have looked at so far.

Globally the spread is very focused in the developed countries – is it because of the testing and collecting of data?

Iceland with its over 80% vaccination is seeing an unprecedented surge in confirmation.

Perhaps we are on the downslope from the peak of confirmation but looks like death will continue to rise.

FL is now leading in deaths over NY. CA continues with record confirmation.

Over 50% of the deaths in FL in South FL Miami area

FL deaths are rising beyond last year.

Washington is seeing large confirmation per capita

Covid19mathblog.com

Continuing with our school mask mandate analysis – time consuming to map the county/school district policy. Here is Arkansas. Once again any county with mix policy not in chart. Again we show that school mask mandates do not assist in reducing county transmission. In fact the lowest counties have no school mask policy.

The other thing realized IF a state had all school districts have a mask mandate – AND IF mask mandates are a silver bullet and did a significant job in reducing transmission then we should see many counties bunched up. There shouldn’t be a large difference in transmission rate among counties. Unfortunately this is not the case for MA. Likely masking kids are not effective compared to other actions. Allowing vaccinated to bars and sports events – but masking school kids – is it because it makes policy makers feel like something is being done? Unfortunately that feeling is not being translated to reality. It is best to study WHY the lower transmitted counties are doing better and figure that out – its not school mask policy!

NY same story but even shows more clearly more vaccinated more transmission -Note: New York data point is suspect due to the population count likely over counted per overlap with Queens Bronx etc… One of the few exceptions in DB but NYC is treated differently.

Speaking of seeing increasing transmission in vaccinated counties – what could cause this? Take a look at the testimony by Dr. Ryan Cole. From all accounts he seems to be a very credible expert – “medical degree from the Medical College of Virginia at Virginia Commonwealth University, where he was president of the student family practice association and a research associate in an immunology lab….5 years in training at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, completing his residency in Anatomic and Clinical Pathology, as well as a fellowship in Surgical pathology, serving as chief fellow in his final year….2004 he founded Cole Diagnostics, an independent, full-service medical laboratory in Boise, Idaho, and is the Chief Medical Officer and Laboratory Director. He is a board certified Anatomic and Clinical pathologist with a subspecialty training and 20 years experience in dermatopathology and particular interest in molecular diagnostics. Dr. Cole is licensed in states from coast to coast, and serves patients and clinicians across the country by providing accurate and timely diagnoses. Cole Diagnostics processes and reports out approximately 40,000 blood and biopsy patient samples annually. In the last year, the lab has handled over 100,000 COVID testing samples.”

https://rumble.com/vt8o30-dr.-ryan-cole-full-highlights-senator-ron-johnson-covid-19-a-second-opinion.html

A very important point is around 3.30 when he is talking about transmission – he notes the vaccine is negative effecting – vaccinated have higher rates of covid vs. from those who already got infected – those who have natural immunity superior once again. Vaccine does not neutralize the area where the virus exist. The reason is the shot in your arm does not create a high level of secretory IGA which is in the mucosal membrane. The natural infected has higher IGA. Vaccinated have a high level of the virus in the nasal/oral cavity the source of transmission! Add that with the behavior “I am vaccinated I am allowed to do what the unvaccinated cant – lets go bar, club, sport events, concerts…etc – a little sniffle no big deal I am vaccinated” – could certainly support higher vaccinated counties seeing more transmission.

In my quest to verify – here is a recent study – Dec 23 2021 which talks about the mucosal immune response to the vaccine is limited vs. prior infection – note they conclude to add this into the second generation of vaccine – why do that if it doesn’t matter – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(21)00582-X/fulltext

“The mRNA BNT162b2 vaccination elicits a strong systemic immune response by drastically boosting neutralizing antibodies development in serum, but not in saliva, indicating that at least oral mucosal immunity is poorly activated by this vaccination protocol, thus failing in limiting virus acquisition upon its entry through this route.”

“Mucosal humoral immunity is mainly constituted by secretory IgA (sIgA), which play an important role in host defense against respiratory pathogens, as SARS-CoV-2.10 sIgA may prevent SARS-CoV-2 adhesion to target epithelial cells via neutralization of the coronavirus Spike protein or binding to the SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid protein.11 Furthermore, salivary sIgA might represent a non-invasive tool to stratify the population into different risk categories and inform individual and collective decisions relating to appropriate vaccine prioritization”

“On the contrary, 60% of virus-exposed subjects before vaccination (here designed as seropositive or SP) developed NAb in their saliva after vaccine administration. Indeed, in this group the increase of salivary IgA was more pronounced, and the serum/saliva IgA ratio was ten-fold higher than in unexposed individuals. This observation suggests that in subjects with previous SARS-CoV-2 natural infection the presence of some “mucosal” immunity mirrors the activation of B cells that can switch toward the production of IgA after vaccination, as also suggested by recent reports.”

“…reconsidering the strategy of vaccination to prevent not only the severe disease but the viral infection (i.e., the so-called ‘sterilizing immunity’), should represent the goal for the generation of second line COVID-19 vaccines, aimed to reinforce the mucosal immune response”

Other key points he supports IVM and used it on his brother….also noted he has been censored – even threaten with medical license…loss of business because loss of insurance company coverage….so sad.

Key point in discussion above – which has been noted before here – the secret was going to be in the nasal cavity – likely a vaccine that starts there would be the most effective against covid. Also being quarantined in a super clean environment is not advised for those healthy.

Speaking of censorship – I suspect a lot of people will be ashamed of their actions when the smoke settles. The right approach is not censorship but doing a better job of presenting information and being more genuine in your reasoning/motives. I don’t think ANYONE including this blog got 100% correct. It is about continuingly learning and growing. The first biggest step in learning is the ability to see where you were wrong and understand why. Denial of the fact is futile. Matt Taibbi surmises the issue with censorship very well – https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-folly-of-pandemic-censorship

“The objections mainly center around Joseph Mercola, Alex Berenson, and Robert Malone. There are issues with the specific critiques of each, but those aren’t the point. Every one of these campaigns revolves around the same larger problem: would-be censors misunderstanding the basic calculus of the freedom of speech.

Even in a society with fairly robust protections, as ours once was, the most dangerous misinformation is always, without exception, official.

Whether it’s WMDs or the Gulf of Tonkin fiasco or the missile gap or the red scare or the twenty-year occupation of Afghanistan, the worst real-world disasters always turn out to be driven or enabled by official falsehoods.”

“One does not need to be a medical expert to see that the FDA, CDC, the NIH, as well as the White House (both under Biden and Trump) have all been untruthful, or wrong, or inconsistent, about a spectacular range of issues in the last two years.

NIAID director Anthony Fauci has told three different stories about masks, including an episode in which he essentially claimed to have lied to us for our own good, in order to preserve masks for frontline workers — what Slate called one of the “Noble lies about Covid-19.” Officials turned out to be wrong about cloth masks anyway. Here is Fauci again on the issue of what to tell the public about how many people would need to be vaccinated to achieve “herd immunity,” casually explaining the logic of lying to the public for its sake:

When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent. Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, “I can nudge this up a bit,” so I went to 80, 85.

We’ve seen sudden changes in official positions on the efficacy of ventilators and lockdowns, on the dangers (or lack thereof) of opening schools, and on the risks, however small, of vaccine side effects like myocarditis. The CDC also just released data showing natural immunity to be more effective in preventing hospitalization and in preventing infection than vaccination. The government had previously said, over and over, that vaccination is preferable to natural immunity (here’s NIH director Francis Collins telling that to Bret Baier unequivocally in August). This was apparently another “noble lie,” designed to inspire people to get vaccinated, that mostly just convinced people to wonder if any official statements can be trusted.”

“Censors have a fantasy that if they get rid of all the Berensons and Mercolas and Malones, and rein in people like Joe Rogan, that all the holdouts will suddenly rush to get vaccinated. The opposite is true. If you wipe out critics, people will immediately default to higher levels of suspicion. They will now be sure there’s something wrong with the vaccine. If you want to convince audiences, you have to allow everyone to talk, even the ones you disagree with. You have to make a better case.”

Seriously how hard would it be to make a better case – the government has so much data at their disposal – assuming they are not trying to swim against the data the case should not be hard. The government has more resources than any substack….$2.5 million that’s trivial. CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, even FOX all have so much more at their disposal than any substack. MAKE A BETTER CASE make society better. Why censor? Make them look illegitimate – or perhaps even ignore them IF they really are out there – no need for name calling and derogatory comments e.g. Horse wormer (imagine the truth comes out that IVM helps perhaps not significantly but lets say a 1% improvement – that’s 8K lives in US. The drug is super safe akin to vitamin C & D and Tylenol. What was the noble lie for that? Without IVM more people would take the vaccine? Is that true? IF even true would those unvax really be hospitalized and died while taking IVM as prophylactic? Last blog discussed recently Brazil IVM study – people’s lives were impacted for this censorship/propaganda to thwart IVM for a noble lie?- https://www.cureus.com/articles/82162-ivermectin-prophylaxis-used-for-covid-19-a-citywide-prospective-observational-study-of-223128-subjects-using-propensity-score-matching )

Math in covid19mathblog.com – is the acronym borrowed from Andrew Yang – Make America Think Harder! – Censorship or telling the public to not listen to others does not Make America Think Harder. We present information sometimes with inference to what we think its says but ultimately you need to think about it – make hypothesis test your hypothesis and repeat….

Please present a better case to alleviate the concerns identified in the following articles –

Article suggesting kids should not be boosted – https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/why-are-we-boosting-kids

“If you are a vaccinated boy between the ages of 12 and 17, the graph shows the likelihood of being hospitalized with Covid is 0.3 out of 100,000. But if you are a boy in that same group and you get a booster, your likelihood of getting myocarditis is 10 out of 100,000. (Ninety-five percent of diagnosed vaccine-associated myocarditis cases result in hospitalization.)

In other words, if you are a young male who is vaccinated you have two choices. Option A: don’t get a booster and run a 0.3 in 100,000 risk of ending up in the hospital with Covid. Option B: get the booster and run a 10 in 100,000 risk of getting myocarditis.”

Article suggest the vaccine (mRNA) is potentially dangerous in the long-term and a call for pause to vaccination initiatives to investigate – Immediately one can see Peter McCullough is on it – one of the speakers on Joe Rogan – To not read this paper and not have an educated response but to tell everyone not to read it is CENSORSHIP – https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357994624_Innate_Immune_Suppression_by_SARS-CoV-2_mRNA_Vaccinations_The_role_of_G-quadruplexes_exosomes_and_microRNAs

“In this paper, we present the evidence that vaccination, unlike natural infection, induces a profound impairment in type I interferon signaling, which has diverse adverse consequences to human health. We explain the mechanism by which immune cells release into the circulation large quantities of exosomes containing spike protein along with critical microRNAs that induce a signaling response in recipient cells at distant sites. We also identify potential profound disturbances in regulatory control of protein synthesis and cancer surveillance. These disturbances are shown to have a potentially direct causal link to neurodegenerative disease, myocarditis, immune thrombocytopenia, Bell’s palsy, liver disease, impaired adaptive immunity, increased tumorigenesis, and DNA damage. We show evidence from adverse event reports in the VAERS database supporting our hypothesis. We believe a comprehensive risk/benefit assessment of the mRNA vaccines excludes them as positive contributors to public health, even in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic.”

“A medRxiv preprint has revealed a remarkable difference between the characteristics of the immune response to an infection with SARS-CoV-2 as compared with the immune response to an mRNA vaccine against COVID-19 [5]. Differential gene expression analysis of peripheral dendritic cells revealed a dramatic upregulation of both type I and type II interferons (IFNs) in COVID-19 patients, but not in vaccinees”

“In this paper we will be focusing extensively, though not exclusively, on vaccination-induced type I IFN suppression and the myriad downstream effects this has on the related signaling cascade.”

“The increasing evidence that the vaccines do little to control disease spread and that their effectiveness wanes over time make it even more imperative to assess the degree to which the vaccines might cause harm. That SARS-CoV-2 modified spike protein mRNA vaccinations have biological impacts is without question. Here we attempt to distinguish those impacts from natural infection, and establish a mechanistic framework linking those unique biological impacts to pathologies now associated with vaccination.”

“For successful mRNA vaccine design, the mRNA needs to be encapsulated in carefully constructed particles that can protect the RNA from degradation by RNA depolymerases. The mRNA vaccines are formulated as lipid nanoparticles containing cholesterol and phospholipids, with the modified mRNA complexed with a highly modified polyethylene glycol (PEG) lipid backbone to promote its early release from the endosome and to further protect it from degradation [63]. The host cell’s existing biological machinery is co-opted to facilitate the natural production of protein from the mRNA through endosomal uptake of a lipid particle [63]. A synthetic cationic lipid is added as well, since it has been shown experimentally to work as an adjuvant to draw immune cells to the injection site and to facilitate endosomal escape. De Beuckelaer et al. (2016) observed that “condensing mRNA into cationic lipoplexes increases the potency of the mRNA vaccine evoked T cell response by several orders of magnitude.” [60] Another important modification is that they replaced the code for two adjacent amino acids in the genome with codes for proline, which causes the spike protein to stay in a prefusion stabilized form [64]. The spike protein mRNA is further “humanized” with the addition of a guanine-methylated cap, 3’ and 5’ untranslated regions (UTRs) copied from those of human proteins, and finally a long poly(A) tail to further stabilize the RNA [65].”

“In the end, it is through utilization of nanolipids and sophisticated mRNA technology that the normal immune response to exogenous RNA is evaded in order to produce a strong antibody response against an exogenous RNA virus”

“If type I IFN signaling is impaired, as happens following vaccination but not following natural infection with SARS-CoV-2, CD8+ T cells’ ability to keep herpes in check would also be impaired. Might this be the mechanism at work in response to the vaccines? Shingles is an increasingly common condition caused by reactivation of latent herpes zoster viruses (HZV), which also causes chicken pox in childhood. In a systematic review, Katsikas et al., (2021) identified 91 cases of herpes zoster occurring an average of 5.8 days following mRNA vaccination”

“There are multiple additional case reports of herpes zoster reactivation following COVID-19 vaccination in the literature [138,139]. Llad´o et al. (2021) noted that 51 of 52 reports of reactivated herpes zoster infections happened following mRNA vaccination [140]. Herpes zoster itself also interferes with IFN-α signaling in infected cells both through interfering with STAT2 phosphorylation and through facilitating IRF9 degradation [141]. An additional case of viral reactivation is noteworthy as well. It involved an 82-year-old woman who had acquired a hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection in 2007. A strong increase in HCV load occurred a few days after vaccination with an mRNA Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, along with an appearance of jaundice. She died three weeks after vaccination from liver failure”

“It has been shown that the mRNA vaccines elicit primarily an immunoglobulin G (IgG) immune response, with lesser amounts of IgA induced [155], and even less IgM production”

“We mentioned earlier that one of the two microRNAs highly expressed in exosomes released by human cells exposed to the spike protein was miR-148a. miR-148a has been shown experimentally to suppress expression of a protein that plays a central role in regulating FcγRIIA expression on platelets”

“Thus, miR-148a, present in exosomes released by macrophages that are compelled by the vaccine to synthesize spike protein, acts to increase the risk of thrombocytopenia in response to immune complexes formed by spike antigen and IgG antibodies produced against spike.”

“Multiple case reports in the research literature describe liver damage following mRNA vaccines [165-167]. A plausible factor leading to these outcomes is the suppression of PPAR-α through downregulation of IRF9, and subsequently decreased sulfatide synthesis in the liver.”

“Guillain Barr´e Syndrome and Other Neurological Conditions GBS is an acute inflammatory demyelinating neuropathy associated with long-lasting morbidity and a significant risk of mortality [168]. The disease involves an autoimmune attack on the nerves associated with the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines. GBS is often associated with autoantibodies to sulfatide and other sphingolipids ”

“it is conceivable that spike also binds to sulfatide, and this might trigger an immune reaction to the spike-sulfatide complex.”

“A common cause of Bell’s palsy is reactivation of herpes simplex virus infection centered around the geniculate ganglion [198]. This, in turn, can be caused by disruption of type I IFN signaling.”

“if the mRNA vaccinations are leading to widespread dysregulation of oncogene controls, cell cycle regulation, and apoptosis, then VAERS reports should reflect an increase in reports of cancer, relative to the other vaccines. This is in fact what VAERS reports reflect, and dramatically so”

“, there were three times as many reports of breast cancer following a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than six times the number of reports of B-cell lymphoma. All but one of the cases of follicular lymphoma were associated with COVID-19 vaccines. Pancreatic carcinoma was more than three times as high. This cannot be explained by reference to a disproportionately large number of people receiving an mRNA vaccination in the past year compared to all other vaccinations. The total number of people receiving a non-COVID-19 vaccination is unknown, but over the 31 years history of reports VAERS contains it is unquestionably many orders of magnitude larger than the number receiving an mRNA vaccination in the past year. Overall, in the above table, twice as many cancer reports to VAERS are related to a COVID-19 vaccination compared to those related to all other vaccines. That, in our opinion, constitutes a signal in urgent need of investigation.”

“In the end, we are not exaggerating to say that billions of lives are at stake. We call on the public health institutions to demonstrate, with evidence, why the issues discussed in this paper are not relevant to public health, or to acknowledge that they are and to act accordingly. Until our public health institutions do what is right in this regard, we encourage all individuals to make their own health care decisions with this information as a contributing factor in those decisions.”

Notes long covid as a function of allergic reaction hence supports taking allergy and indigestion medicine. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971221007517

“Mast cell activation symptoms (MCAS) were increased in Long-COVID patients

• Long-COVID patients had similar severity of numerous MCAS symptoms
• Aberrant mast cells induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection is the likely triggering factor
• MC-directed therapy could help treat Long-COVID patients”

“MCA symptoms were increased in LC and mimicked the symptoms and severity reported by patients who have MCAS. Increased activation of aberrant mast cells induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection by various mechanisms may underlie part of the pathophysiology of LC, possibly suggesting routes to effective therapy.”

US deaths now approaching 900K….France and India continue to show increased confirmations. Russia fatality rate not too good 0.5%

US so much more vaccinated than last year – yet the deaths are approaching last years level

France transmission is unprecedented compared to last year – vaccination nearly 80% – deaths just slightly under last year

India surge – higher deaths than last year at this time.

Russia has higher deaths than last year along with a surging confirmation.

Japan surging

All this surge plus the video above makes me question are we testing for colds not covid? Fatality rates relatively low. Any idea how wide spread a common cold is? Sending test to each home should that reduce confirmation reporting?

CA and NY leaders in the US

NY deaths over last year

CA deaths are under last year but confirmations way above any time period

A big surge in confirmation in the west.

Still over 8K additional deaths per week relative to the baseline of 2014-2019

Covid19mathblog.com

Continuing our data review of school mask by state – we finished compiling VA. Once again we ignore counties with mix policies. The Y axis represent county overall confirmed cases / county population since Oct 21. The X axis represents the vaccination rate for 18+.

In VA case we have two of the best counties having a mask mandate (Montgomery & Rockbridge) at the same time we have 2 of the worse counties also with mask mandate (Franklin & Roanoke). In between we have a mix baggage but still no clear separation from mask mandated schools/counties and their overall county transmission rate.

Here is a detail mask study done in MI indicating much lower transmission rate among students with mask back in Oct of 2021 – slide 11 points out mask helped – note this is before weather really got bad – https://www.michigan.gov/documents/coronavirus/20211012_Data_and_modeling_update_vMEDIA_738348_7.pdf

Our own dataset during this time period would indicate that as such but this isn’t the heart of the cold/flu season – this is akin to doing an analysis of natural gas demand in the summer and expecting a similar relationship into the winter. Where is the updated study now? I couldn’t find it.

Below is the latest as of Oct21 to now. Why did I choose Oct21 – some schools did not start till late Aug so I did not want to bias the non school issues into the equation. Also many school activities do not really show up till much later in the year.

As noted before in all the other states analyzed no big separation between mask mandated counties. In fact the best performing in terms of county transmission are non-mask mandate counties.

Another interesting difference in the study above vs. what is presented here is they were focused on school transmission. Here we are focused on the greater good of the county – overall county transmission. Could it be possible that youth transmission helps reduce societal transmission by building tolerance? Could school outbreak cause parents and kids to quarantine early reducing the societal spread? Could the children be the canary in the mine? Societal good vs. school good?

Stay tuned as we add more states. Perhaps at some point one of the states will show that mask mandates do significantly alter the county transmission.

NY supreme court strikes down mask mandates for public areas – https://www.axios.com/new-york-mask-mandate-court-595b4ba7-d9c4-4bab-b12d-34bff3d599d2.html

Once again more of a balance of power issue not an argument of efficacy.

“Enacting any laws to end COVID "is entrusted solely to the State Legislature," Nassau County Judge Thomas Rademaker wrote in the opinion.

"Should the State Legislature, representative of and voted into office by the citizens of New York, after publicly informed debate, decide to enact laws requiring face coverings in schools and other place places then the Commissioner would likely be well grounded in properly promulgated and enacted rules to supplement such laws."”

“: "My responsibility as Governor is to protect New Yorkers throughout this public health crisis, and these measures help prevent the spread of COVID-19 and save lives," Hochul said in a statement.

"We strongly disagree with this ruling, and we are pursuing every option to reverse this immediately."

Worth noting: New York’s court system includes a Supreme Court in each county that acts as a trial-level court of general jurisdiction. The state’s Court of Appeals is the highest court in New York.”

Imagine arguing over something that is cost effective and had a potential to save lives with minor side effects. But because no one wanted to spend 20+ Million dollar to setup a study to answer the concerns like they do with new drugs/vaccines – they(many in society) berated the drug (“horse pill”) and those who would choose to use it as unintelligent. Can you imagine later on that you ended up being wrong? What was the risk/reward for arguing against something potentially harmless but potentially lifesaving? I am sure someone will find an issue with this study that just came out from Brazil. There seems too much at stake now – lives could have been saved if this study is correct – https://www.cureus.com/articles/82162-ivermectin-prophylaxis-used-for-covid-19-a-citywide-prospective-observational-study-of-223128-subjects-using-propensity-score-matching

“Results: Of the 223,128 citizens of Itajaí considered for the study, a total of 159,561 subjects were included in the analysis: 113,845 (71.3%) regular ivermectin users and 45,716 (23.3%) non-users. Of these, 4,311 ivermectin users were infected, among which 4,197 were from the city of Itajaí (3.7% infection rate), and 3,034 non-users (from Itajaí) were infected (6.6% infection rate), with a 44% reduction in COVID-19 infection rate (risk ratio [RR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.53-0.58; p < 0.0001).”

“The regular use of ivermectin led to a 68% reduction in COVID-19 mortality (25 [0.8%] versus 79 [2.6%] among ivermectin non-users; RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.20-0.49; p < 0.0001). When adjusted for residual variables, reduction in mortality rate was 70% (RR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.46; p < 0.0001). There was a 56% reduction in hospitalization rate (44 versus 99 hospitalizations among ivermectin users and non-users, respectively; RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.31-0.63; p < 0.0001). After adjustment for residual variables, reduction in hospitalization rate was 67% (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 023-0.66; p < 0.0001).”

“Conclusion: In this large PSM study, regular use of ivermectin as a prophylactic agent was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality rates.”

“In a citywide ivermectin program with prophylactic, optional ivermectin use for COVID-19, ivermectin was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death rates from COVID-19.”

Personally seeing all the data and evaluating the risk – there is not a doubt in mind similar to taking vitamins C and D that if my love ones or myself just got infected with covid – I would seriously consider ivermectin. Obviously individually one needs to consult with your doctor as everyone has a unique circumstance. To eliminate this as a treatment option during a pandemic is amazing.

Speaking of treatment options the FDA has removed the EUA for monoclonal antibodies resulting in closures of clinics in FL – https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/florida-monoclonal-antibody-sites-closed/67-3b45cd3a-3025-424a-93a6-255f8651172c

“The FDA said it was revoking emergency authorization for both drugs, which were purchased by the federal government and given to millions of Americans with COVID-19 – bamlanivimab and etesevimab, which are given together, and REGEN-COV. They remain authorized "only when the patient is likely to have been infected with or exposed to a variant that is susceptible to these treatments," the FDA said.

If the drugs prove effective against future variants, the FDA said it could reauthorize their use.

The regulatory move was expected because both drugmakers had said the infusion drugs are less able to target omicron due to its mutations. Still, the federal action could trigger pushback from some Republican governors who have continued promoting the drugs against the advice of health experts.

In a statement, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis called the reversal "sudden and reckless."”

Another potential vaccine a fraction of the cost coming – or will it be squashed? – https://www.sciencealert.com/a-new-patent-free-covid-19-vaccine-could-be-a-global-game-changer

“All COVID-19 vaccines teach the immune system how to recognize the virus and prepare the body to mount an attack. The CORBEVAX vaccine is a protein subunit vaccine. It uses a harmless piece of the spike protein from the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 to stimulate and prepare the immune system for future encounters with the virus.

Unlike the three vaccines approved in the US – Pfizer and Moderna’s mRNA vaccines and Johnson & Johnson’s viral vector vaccine, which provide the body instructions on how to produce the spike protein – CORBEVAX delivers the spike protein to the body directly. Like those other approved COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, CORBEVAX also requires two doses.”

“CORBEVAX was developed by the co-directors of the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development at Baylor College of Medicine, Drs. Maria Elena Bottazzi and Peter Hotez.

During the 2003 SARS outbreak, these researchers created a similar type of vaccine by inserting the genetic information for a portion of the SARS virus spike protein into yeast to produce large amounts of the protein. After isolating the virus spike protein from the yeast and adding an adjuvant, which helps trigger an immune response, the vaccine was ready for use.”

“A large US-based clinical trial found the vaccine to be safe, well tolerated and over 90 percent effective at preventing symptomatic infections. The vaccine received emergency use authorization in India, and other developing countries are expected to follow.”

“Protein subunit vaccines have an advantage over mRNA vaccines in that they can be readily produced using well-established recombinant DNA technology that is relatively inexpensive and fairly easy to scale up. A similar protein recombinant technology that’s been around for 40 years has been used for the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine, which is available for use in 170 countries, and the recombinant hepatitis B vaccine.

This vaccine can be produced at a much larger scale because appropriate manufacturing facilities are already available. Also key to global access is that CORBEVAX can be stored in a regular refrigerator. Therefore, it is possible to produce millions of doses rapidly and distribute them relatively easily.”

Huge spikes in confirmation from France and India….US still leads in both categories.

CA and NY leading the US

Winter deaths continue to climb

Covid19mathblog.com

Continuing our school mask analysis we have pulled in Ohio. Once again as noted last time (https://covid19mathblog.com/2022/01/covid-1-19-22/ ) – the conclusions does not mean mask won’t help individually for circumstances where student lives with a high risk adult etc… but there is something bigger that is more impactful than mask for society as a whole. There is a potential that mask mandates causes administration to ignore other more impactful solutions. Mask may also cause parents to send sick kids to school. Many questions but still the fact is the data shows school mask mandates are not a driving influence on county transmission.

Understanding what makes Holmes and Washington County in OH better than others is more important than enforcing mask mandates at this time. Holmes is noted to be very Amish – do they have more ventilated schools, less socializing? Could it be kids can go to school maskless if they just didn’t socialize outside of school? *Counties with multiple school districts with varying policy are ignored.

We will continue to add states as we can. It is a very manual process.

We continue to see excessive deaths though a bid improvement on last year. (star vs. triangle) – with base target the avg 2014-2019 levels seen in red.

A very important report once again supporting common sense conclusion that natural immunity would be superior over vaccine given the whole experience of the virus not just the spike protein. By concluding this one does not conclude that one should just go out and get covid – but it does at the very least point out that those who have had covid do not need continued vaccinations at least at the levels of those who never had natural immunity. This is part of the equation when one decides to get vaccinated – do you believe you already had covid? Can you test to confirm that you already had it? IF so then perhaps if you have zoster or heart conditions you may shift your risk/reward equation more from getting the vaccination. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm?s_cid=mm7104e1_w

The tables at the bottom are the most informative – clearly showing those with previous diagnosis superior to vaccine. Clearly also indicates unvaccinated without previous diagnosis at risk. However given Omicron transmission rate we will all likely get it.

Conflict of interest? https://www.theepochtimes.com/scientists-who-were-instrumental-to-covid-19-natural-origins-narrative-received-over-50-million-in-niaid-funding-in-2020-2021_4220769.html

“Scientists Who Were Instrumental to COVID-19 ‘Natural Origins’ Narrative Received Over $50 Million in NIAID Funding in 2020-2021”

Noted this remedy before – but here is a reaffirmation – Benadryl and Lactoferrin – https://www.clarkcountytoday.com/news/scientist-surprised-by-discovery-of-99-effective-cheap-covid-treatment/ – study – https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/10/11/1514

“Ostrov, an immunologist and associate professor in the University of Florida College of Medicine’s department of pathology, immunology and laboratory medicine, combined diphenhydramine, which is marketed as Benadryl, and lactoferrin, a protein in milk, as WND reported in December.

“My prediction is that antiviral drug combinations, such as diphenhydramine and lactoferrin, will provide a similar level of benefit as Regeneron monoclonal antibodies, Pfizer and Merck antivirals, at less than 1/100 the cost of those therapies,” he told WND.

Ostrov said he knew he was facing an uphill battle in his effort to find a combination of cheap, safe and available drugs to combat COVID-19.”

“Conclusions: Sigma receptor ligands and

drugs with off-target sigma receptor binding characteristics were effective at inhibiting SARS-CoV-2

infection in primate and human cells, representing a potential therapeutic avenue for COVID-19

prevention and treatment.”

WHO has a few messages that don’t seem to follow the US message –

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/18/who-says-theres-no-evidence-healthy-children-adolescents-need-covid-boosters.html?

“WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan said Tuesday “there’s no evidence right now” that suggests healthy children and adolescents need booster shots to supplement their Covid-19 vaccinations.”

India and France continues to surge – US leads the death category

India

France

California leading confirmation and NY deaths

CA confirmation beyond previous peaks

NY deaths only slightly below last year – yet so much more vaccinated!

Certainly spreading across the US regardless of vax

Covid19mathblog.com

The good thing is we do not have homogenous decision making in the country/state/county level so we can actually learn what the results would mean via different policies. We have lab results and deduction from what we believe will happen – but reality has many variables and perhaps all the lab results mean nothing – as shown in the transmission of covid regardless of vax status. There is no doubt everyone wanted the lab results to translate to reality but it doesn’t all the time happened – as in vaccines do not help in reducing transmission – evidence is all the charts of transmission rates vs county vax levels in multiple postings. Now we have the mask in school debate. CDC is still recommending mask – https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/k-12-guidance.html.

“CDC recommends universal indoor masking by all* students (ages 2 years and older), staff, teachers, and visitors to K-12 schools, regardless of vaccination status.”

In general, we have been a proponent of mask in the sense the mask will capture liquid aerosols which MAY hold viral particles. Is it the most effective policy? Is it more a self-benefit? Does it translate to societal benefits? Does it cause school administration to ignore policies that would actually be more effective such as increase ventilation and watching CO2 levels? Well lets just look at real data and decide. Unfortunately it was a manual process to go state by state to find counties that align with school districts and ignore the counties that had multiple decisions within a county. So far we have filtered Michigan and North Carolina with the clear NO and clear YES mask mandates. We then looked at the county transmission rate since October 2021 (confirmed cases/per Capita). It would be ideal to look at youth transmission rates but we don’t have that detailed data on confirmations. We also overlayed it with vaccination rates in order to also show that seems to be irrelevant too.

IF mask in school was a key determinant of transmission in the county we should see a separation of the orange (Yes Mask Mandates) and the Blue (NO Mask Mandates) with orange at the lower end of the Y axis. Unfortunately the results do not show vaccination rates or mask mandates directly impacting transmission rates in the county since October 2021.

We have FL but we are only able to confirm all the county that are defying the Gov rule to not have mask mandates. In this case it looks more clear that mask gives a false sense of security and actually potentially leads to greater transmission. Do those mask district do less other actions because they have a mask mandate? Do parents send kids with minor symptoms into school because of mask mandates whereas those without mask are more obvious they need to stay at home? Is it a coincidence that those with mask mandates have resulted in higher transmission? As noted before in the beginning of this issue we need to learn from counties who are successful and find out what they did vs. just accept what sounds like it should work – we need to find out what actually works.

Stay tuned for more states as we gather the data.

Speaking of school policies we now see many asking colleges not to push booster onto students as the data seems to be clear the risk/reward for male students are not as appealing as it was presented in the beginning. https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/01/18/hundreds-sign-petition-to-repeal-stanford-universitys-covid-19-booster-vaccine-mandate/

A very important part is the tweet noted by Dr. Prasad – Paul Offit has advised his own son not to get the booster. Note he is the one typically who has been used as the source to argue against many claims – also sits on the FDA panel. https://covid19mathblog.com/2022/01/covid-1-6-22/

“Paul Offit, a man who made a vaccine, advised his own son not to take the risk of booster for uncertain gains”

Another study showing the efficacy of taking melatonin for Covid-19 – this was part of my kitchen sink – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8506572/?

“Conclusions

Adjuvant use of melatonin may help to reduce thrombosis, sepsis, and mortality in COVID-19 patients.”

Support for vaccine in reducing long covid – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.05.22268800v2?

“Conclusions Vaccination with at least two doses of COVID-19 vaccine was associated with a substantial decrease in reporting the most common post-acute COVID-19 symptoms, bringing it back to baseline. Our results suggest that, in addition to reducing the risk of acute illness, COVID-19 vaccination may have a protective effect against long COVID.”

Canada is on board in taking Fluvoxamine for treatment of Covid-19 – https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/fluvoxamine-what-prescribers-and-pharmacists-need-to-know/

US leads the world in deaths likely partly do the with and from debate.

India numbers are starting to be alarming. Confirmations starting to approach last year peaks

Surge is happening globally

NY lead death – CA leads confirmation for the US

Still unfortunately the forecast made previously will likely be too low.

High transmission rates continue in the northern region regardless of high vaccination rates.

Covid19mathblog.com

There is an alarming push to sequester thought and any resemblance to the effect of questioning the current narrative. Certainly questioning and ignoring the crazy conspirators makes sense, but people with high credentials and those who only point to data or have their own personal choices all being canceled? It doesn’t take much history lessons to know the current society message may not be the ultimate outcome most would like. Recently watched the Trial of the Chicago 7 (recommend) on Netflix and I see a potential overlap in reach of power and sequestering those who have a message that may not go with the current government trend – https://www.netflix.com/title/81043755

Effort is being made to cancel people. Lately we have lots of press for canceling Joe Rogan from “Doctors” you can find the article mentions in Rolling Stone – Forbes – yet they all didn’t even do a simple journalistic research to understand those who signed the letter – https://spotifyopenletter.wordpress.com/2022/01/10/an-open-letter-to-spotify/

You wonder why the traditional mainstream media losing audience – people have to look to other sources to vet the letter.

Twitter Account Ethical Skeptic – notes ONLY 5% are considered experts to qualify the capability to cancel someone in this subject matter. https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1482135557329334272?t=IGF-bBD1_LbZZNVzWHGaEQ&s=19

Djokovic drama is over and he is deported from Australia NOT because he caused a direct harm to society – BUT for the public interest. One point was made that there was a concern he would cause more antivax – well he had a medical exemption probably because of natural immunity in Dec! Perhaps valuing and understanding natural immunity should be considered vs. an all vax strategy? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-60014059

“Djokovic was originally granted a medical exemption to enter Australia by two different independent health panels – one commissioned by Tennis Australia, the other by the state government of Victoria – after testing positive for coronavirus in mid-December.

However, the Australian Border Force detained him on 5 January for not meeting federal coronavirus requirements, and his visa was revoked.

A judge later overturned that decision, but the government stepped in last Friday to revoke the visa again, saying doing so was in the public interest.

Although Djokovic is not vaccinated against Covid-19, he has not actively promoted anti-vax disinformation. However, Australian anti-vaxxers have been using the hashtag #IStandWithDjokovic on social media.”

Is this all Djokovic problem? Literally almost 80% vaccinated! And now they are seeing historically high confirmations and deaths – and its summer time for them! Should they even host the Australian Open in this surge?

Lots of Australia comparison to US and European countries – but they are an island and in the Pacific so best to compare with other island countries in that region. Death per capita is the second lowest (NZ #1) but likely not after this surge.

Australia confirmed per capita (6.8%) is a long way from the US and many European countries – is it inevitable that countries approach 10-20% confirmation per capita?

Well all those vaccines certainly did not control the spread – here we see the confirmation is nearly triple than the previous peak. Fatality rates the worse in Central America.

In the US California confirmations are skyrocketing – what all those restrictions not working? NY leads deaths – also another restrictive state.

California observing 2X confirmation when over 64% vaccinated vs. essentially none last year. Deaths are much lower than they were last year. Is this the right level of vaccination if death is the only metric?

NY confirmation 3X vs last year deaths are very similar to last year.

TX similar to California – 3X more confirmation but deaths are much better than last year

FL confirmation up but deaths also low. Restrictive policies do not seem to offer any apparent advantage.

Counties with over 90% vaccinated leading transmission rates

Covid19mathblog.com

Big news supreme court strikes down Biden vaccine mandates for businesses over 100 employees – https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-vaccine-mandate-eb5899ae1fe5b62b6f4d51f54a3cd375?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter&s=09

Many will think this is a vaccine case – but it’s not – it is once again an argument for the balance of power. Congress CAN pass this requirement and it would be law. The President is an executive branch – he cannot make laws. The supreme court does not think OSHA was created with this overwhelming power. If you think about what they can do now in terms of mandating fire extinguishers, safety hats, etc… all those things can be left at the workplace at the end of the day. You cant leave your vaccine at the office. And not all people have the same health/lifestyle – some could be more suspect to adverse effects (Zoster, Heart issues, etc…)

Back in December given the vaccines inability to reduce transmission became very obvious the thought that the vaccine was acting more as a primer to the immune system – I hypothesized given the common cold is also a coronavirus that the common cold virus could also act as an immune system primer – I proposed a 4 method trial in Dec https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/12/covid-12-27-21/ to understand how effective the vaccine really is a booster to the immune system. “Need a study of four categories – Vaccine, Cold Virus, Therapeutics for Immune System (Vitamin D, C etc…), Placebo (Saline/Water)”

Now there is a small study to support my hypothesis – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27674-x

“Despite mass deployment of effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, correlates of protection against infection remain unknown. Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 does not universally result in infection and pre-existing T cells, primed by endemic human coronaviruses (huCoVs), might mediate protection in SARS-CoV-2-naive persons. Studies to date have described the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactive T cells in naive healthy controls1,2,3,4 and in hospitalised COVID-19 patients5,6. However, no study yet describes an association of cross-reactive T cells with outcome after SARS-CoV-2 exposure.”

Translate: how does SARS respond to those that have been exposed to the common cold virus (huCoVs)

“we surmise, as have others19 that huCoV-antibodies are a marker of prior huCoV exposure while the cross-reactive memory T cells mediate protection; however, it is also possible that the antibodies contribute to or mediate protection themselves.”

“Wyllie20 et al. have demonstrated that IFN-γ -secreting T cells specific for SARS-CoV-2-exclusive epitopes induced by prior symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection are associated with protection from reinfection in a prospective study of healthcare workers with low anti-S antibodies. This complements our novel finding that IL-2-secreting T cells responding to exclusively cross-reactive epitopes, indicative of memory T cells from previous huCoV infection, may protect against infection in SARS-CoV-2-naive seronegative individuals.”

“The emergence of novel variants with potential to escape naturally acquired or vaccine-induced humoral immunity, along with the recent elucidation of immune-mediated antigenic drift in huCoVs31 brings the long-term utility of spike-only based vaccines into question. We demonstrate the importance of non-spike targets, in particular ORF1 and nucleocapsid, for T cell-mediated protection in the absence of neutralising antibodies, consistent with the wide spectrum of antigen-specific T cells induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection5,13,24,32 and cross-reactive T cells in pre-pandemic cohorts4. In light of this, inclusion of these targets alongside the major antibody target of S-protein could be critical in maintaining the benefit of vaccination in the case of vaccine-strain mismatch, as could occur with the emergence of novel variants33. Our study complements the small but growing body of evidence that T cells may protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection and supports the potential utility of second-generation vaccines targeting core proteins”

Translate: a spike only vaccine is limiting – cold virus covers beyond spike and could offer a better setup and the future vaccine should consider the design of a cold virus – me: why not just try the cold virus straight up we know the side effects very well?

A bigger impact for this can explain somewhat why many have no impact with Covid and how some people don’t get infected even with Omicron – because they probably had exposure to common cold virus more than others. Living in an ultraclean bubble was not a good thing for society in terms of long-term health and immune system strength.

Endemic discussions are growing – a more interesting point in the article is the booster discussion – https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/01/12/should-we-treat-covid-like-the-flu-europe-is-starting-to-think-so.html

“There are growing calls in Europe for Covid-19 to be treated as an endemic illness like the flu despite strong warnings from global health officials that the pandemic is far from over.

Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, is the latest European leader to stick his head above the parapet by suggesting it’s time to reevaluate Covid. He called on the EU to debate the possibility of treating the virus as an endemic illness.”

“Marco Cavaleri, head of biological health threats and vaccines strategy at the European Medicines Agency, the EU’s drug regulator, said Tuesday that "nobody knows when exactly we’ll be at the end of the tunnel" in terms of the pandemic becoming endemic, but added that progress is being made.”

“The EMA’s Cavaleri said Tuesday that "repeated vaccinations within short intervals will not represent a sustainable long-term strategy."

"If we have a strategy in which we give boosters every four months, we will end up potentially having problems with immune response … so we should be careful with not overloading the immune system with repeated immunization," he said.

"And secondly of course there is the risk of fatigue in the population with continuous administration of boosters." Ideally, Cavaleri said, "if you want to move towards a scenario of endemicity, then such boosters should be synchronized with the arrival of the cold season" and be timed to be given with flu vaccines.”

Is he noting that booster strategy could be akin to overuse of antibiotics?

Perhaps time to go long cannabis? Note not for smoking https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35007072/

“Cannabinoid acids from hemp (Cannabis sativa) were found to be allosteric as well as orthosteric ligands with micromolar affinity for the spike protein. In follow-up virus neutralization assays, cannabigerolic acid and cannabidiolic acid prevented infection of human epithelial cells by a pseudovirus expressing the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and prevented entry of live SARS-CoV-2 into cells. Importantly, cannabigerolic acid and cannabidiolic acid were equally effective against the SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant B.1.1.7 and the beta variant B.1.351. Orally bioavailable and with a long history of safe human use, these cannabinoids, isolated or in hemp extracts, have the potential to prevent as well as treat infection by SARS-CoV-2.”

Lab leak theory re-emergence but the Project Veritas announcement seems more like a regurgitation of the documented released last September – https://drasticresearch.org/2021/09/20/1583/?s=09

Good news and bad news…good news excess deaths better than last year. Bad news still quite a bit of excess death comparing to the avg of 2014-2019 in the US.

Omicron is being pushed as the reason vax did not prevent transmission – this is false the failure to reduce transmission was identified before Omicron – Omicron did make it more visible.

As always pointed out IF vaccination status would improve transmission you would see counties with higher vaccination rate have a lower transmission rate (confirmation/per capita) – visualizing within a state normalizes somewhat for temperature and state issues assuming state is not so large geographically

In the summer time the vaccination status (X axis) for 18+ and 65+ you can see both have extremely low R^2 <.03 – surprisingly even in the death category

The winter actually improved the R^2 leading to better differentiation from low vax and high vax – still under 0.2

Ohio during summer R^2<0.06

Ohio Winter time the relationship actually flipped higher vaccinated counties MORE transmission with r^2<0.27!

NJ summer r^2<.01

NJ in winter also showing higher transmission the higher vaccinated counties still R2 low < 0.05

Alabama in the summer R2 <0.06

Alabama in the winter r^2 = 0

Colorado in the summer low vaccination levels but some counties had some decent summer vaccination levels – 65+ very low! – r2<0.03. Also one of the few states that deaths are on a upward trend.

Big vaccination push in CO by winter time – however the greater the vax status the trend greater transmission – but still poor relationship r2 <0.31 (still one of the best relationship – this is for the 18+) Good thing the death curve is pointing in the right direction.

Arizona summer time r2<0.11

Once again flipped but still poor relationship r2<0.02

State after state we see a very poor relationship with transmission rate and vaccination rate with many showing the counterintuitive view – higher vaccination higher transmission. Don’t let them blame it on Omicron – the vax never worked as initially sold to the public in terms of reducing transmission. Graphs on this blog has been consistently showing this ever since the vaccinations were released. Personally I did want the vaccines to reduce transmission but the fact my personal desires or pharma trial results are irrelevant as the outcome is what it is.

US continues to lead deaths and confirmation. France now at 20% capita confirmed.

Yikes France confirmation way out there in terms of confirmation. Nearly 80% vaccinated. Unfortunately deaths are similar to last year even with NO vaccines.

Germany confirmation sky high but at least deaths are lower.

In Japan confirmation still below previous peak and deaths are way lower than last year.

In the US NY leads the death and CA leads confirmation…..where is the discussion about politics and unvax driving these issues? Perhaps that had nothing to do with it and it was weather play and human behavior?

Very high vaccinated counties leading the past 7 day transmission rate

Covid19mathblog.com

What is the ultimate goal of a covid mitigation strategy? Low fatality, low hospitalization, and low transmission in order to go on with our daily lives similar to before Covid – and hopefully in a collegial and loving way. We always need to keep those goals in mind and not be stuck to how or what we did to get to where we are. In the beginning, data was scarce risk/reward dictated caution to the level of a Hollywood apocalyptic movie. As data came in it is only appropriate to adjust to the data. Coverups and not admitting faults never lead to good outcomes – its like as a kid when you broke something of importance and you tried to patch it up and not tell anyone – this strategy in the long run causes more trouble than confronting the issue at the time as lies likely lead to more lies – or at least perceived by the parent.

Back in June (https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/06/covid-6-2-21/ ) it was noted the side effects of vaccine would be much greater than we knew it to be from what was advertised. This was not so hard to predict – when in the history of time has a pharmaceutical drug come out ahead of all the side effects possible? Another interesting discussion on Pharma by Harvard Professor John Abramson MD, MS on Joe Rogan – https://open.spotify.com/episode/64ZsPU8e2CHvWQM9lqnLEY?si=gX5N55NOSqajnxsHnbeF7w – important points Pharma #1 goal is to make money not saves lives #2 85% of all clinical trials are paid by pharm – the peer review is only reviewing the analytical summary of the clinical trial – the raw data is not presented or given – so the big assumption is the analytical results of the trial is appropriately done – no one gets access to the data without a long litigation process. Also to note Pfizer big penalties show they are not altruistic – https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-largest-health-care-fraud-settlement-its-history.

I bring this up not to be shot down and accused of being an anti-vax or anti-science – I am a man of science – BS Chemical Engineering. I bring this up to show one needs to think on your own – as the best person to understand ones self interest is you and perhaps your doctor for medical issues. Many females complained early on about the vaccine impact on menstruation as noted on 6/2/21 – at that time there was concerted effort to hush the issue. A label of antivax was thrown around for those who would question – eventually too many people caused the NIH to do a study – and the results confirmed the vaccine does impact – https://journals.lww.com/greenjournal/Fulltext/9900/Association_Between_Menstrual_Cycle_Length_and.357.aspx?s=09

“Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination is associated with a small change in cycle length but not menses length.”

In terms of implications of what the conclusions mean the study did not delve too much into this. However the point is there is something going on from a shot that was administered in your arm. Originally many tried to blame the stress of covid not the vaccine

“Our results cannot be explained by generalized pandemic stress because our unvaccinated control group saw no changes over a similar time period. Our findings are consistent with a recent analysis of 18,076 Natural Cycles application users before and during the pandemic that also demonstrated no population-level cycle timing disruptions due to pandemic stress.”

“Our sample size is also sufficiently large to identify small differences, even 1 day, in cycle and menses length that may be of interest to individuals but might not rise to the level of clinical concern (8 days or more) or trigger a medical evaluation for secondary amenorrhea (no menses for 3 months).8,26 However, for an individual, small cycle changes can cause concern or raise hopes, especially if avoiding or planning for pregnancy, and this level of detail will likely be valuable.”

“Questions remain about other possible changes in menstrual cycles, such as menstrual symptoms, unscheduled bleeding, and changes in the quality and quantity of menstrual bleeding.”

Individual point is important – ONCE AGAIN individually this needs to be evaluated and understood. This is not a one size fits all. What other potential vaccine adverse effects do we not know? What is the impact on the vaccine on youth development? At least some are changing their stance on the youth now – with a not one size fits all – low risk kids should not get the jab – https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1547050/covid-vaccine-JCVI-omicron-delta-myocarditis?s=09

“More than thirty doctors, scientists and MP’s have signed a joint letter to the government’s vaccine watchdog urging it to "reassess" the Covid vaccine rollout for healthy 12-15 year olds following new data showing potentially serious harms of the jab are likely to outweigh any potential benefits.”

The current vaccines DO NOT have a societal value when it comes to mitigating transmission. A secondary argument time and time again is the unvaccinated clogging up the ICU and hospitals. However the fact is perhaps the majority of the issues is not being vaccinated status but the well-being of the individual – when 85% of the deaths have 4 or more comorbidity (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0258154 )the win-win solution is not vaccination for all but a targeted message for those in that situation to take vaccine AND get healthy to reduce comorbidity – this strategy WOULD eliminate MOST of the hospital concerns while not jeopardizing freedom of choice for the masses and lead to long-term benefits beyond covid.

All this time we could have done the logical step to classify Covid hospitalization from and with…..now they are doing it? Better late than never? Just to clarify this point as noted several times NEVER in the history of medical science have we ever tried to quantify at this scale how much a virus is in the public. Think about the flu – would you even go in and confirm that you have a flu if you had a fever one day and recovered – much less if it was a sniffle or asymptomatic. The likelihood of having a flu and going into the ER because of an accident likely very high during flu season but you would never know because no one cares unless symptomatic. Now everyone is tested – its our first foray into understanding how abundant is a virus in society.

NY is showing those going to hospitals 43% IS NOT FROM COVID but have covid upon testing. https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-updates-new-yorkers-states-progress-combating-covid-19-131?s=09

The fact remains treatment policies of go home and wait to see if it gets bad then come to hospital is just an awful strategy. This is a death ridden strategy. For many absolutely no issue – but the ones who are in the unfortunate camp this is a potential death sentence. We know there are antiviral treatments with limited risk from side effects and cost. Lowering the viral load is the key. IF you believe the many who note its not the virus that kills you but the allergic reaction to the remaining spike protein in your body – you want to keep the viral load down – therefore less particles to be allergic to afterwards. Long covid is speculated to come from the issue of antibodies – once again the generation of these is a function of viral load – reduce viral load perhaps reduce the amount of antibodies causing long term implications – https://health.ucdavis.edu/newsroom/news/headlines/antibodies-mimicking-the-virus-may-explain-long-haul-covid-19-rare-vaccine-side-effects/2021/11?s=09

Part of the kitchen sink strategy I used and I believe Joe Rogan used was Quercetin which you can buy without a prescription on Amazon –

https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1729/12/1/66/htm

“Our analysis revealed that complete clinical improvement in the quercetin group was recorded at 7 days, and at 17 days in the placebo group. In fact, the subject in the intervention group was negative at 10 days, while the 4 subjects in the placebo group had a negative swab after 10 + 7 days. None of the patients required hospitalization.”

“A recent article by Lee [2] and a previous review by Shi [3] reported that symptomatic COVID-19 infection is associated with a first phase of prevalent immune involvement. Subsequently, a second phase is characterized by a cytokine storm and macrophage activation syndrome.

We, therefore, suppose that quercetin is involved in the first phase, activating the immune system, and counteracting cytokines storm and senescent cells. Recent data support the use of quercetin, and in particular its formulation in the phytosome, as a promising ingredient for the mitigation of COVID-19 manifestations. New scientific papers have been published adding evidence that reinforce this remarkable potential asset, such as a study where quercetin was reported to be a mitigation agent for COVID-19 on the basis of genomic analysis in human cells [16]. Moreover, the Lee paper cited above reported Quercetin Phytosome® as possible senolytic agent that is suitable for the management of COVID-19 [2]. Briefly, senescent cells can be considered to be a therapeutic target in COVID-19, whose early elimination might mitigate the course of the disease. Known senolytic compounds (i.e., mavitoclax and the combination of dasatinib + quercetin) were tested in SARS-CoV-2-infected animals using only the solvent as placebo control. Animals with senolytic interventions presented a substantial reduction in senescent cells in their respiratory tract and a dramatic reduction in SASP cytokines in blood serum.”

It is important to note the first phase therefore you cant take this by the time you go to the hospital to see positive results. This is just awful we don’t have home treatment plans by now and that you have to resort to listening to Joe Rogan or even someone like myself who happens to come across these studies and weighs the risk/reward benefit.

At least some are having a change in strategy and realizing the past strategy did not produced what was expected – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/08/end-mass-jabs-and-live-with-covid-says-ex-head-of-vaccine-taskforce?s=09

“End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce”

“Covid should be treated as an endemic virus similar to flu, and ministers should end mass-vaccination after the booster campaign, the former chairman of the UK’s vaccine taskforce has said.

With health chiefs and senior Tories also lobbying for a post-pandemic plan for a straining NHS, Dr Clive Dix called for a major rethink of the UK’s Covid strategy, in effect reversing the approach of the past two years and returning to a “new normality”.

“We need to analyse whether we use the current booster campaign to ensure the vulnerable are protected, if this is seen to be necessary,” he said. “Mass population-based vaccination in the UK should now end.””

Proof of what was sold was not what was delivered and the messaging has changed but no admitting to the initial strategy of all vaccine approach did not work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZMNwCFnyjs

(admitted could do without the music and the last few clips – but the initial clips are real and unadulterated the initial strategy failed.)

We need to change strategy offer pre-treatment solution along with ventilation and health initiatives AND also now that many will have natural immunity – it’s time we acknowledge the value of natural immunity so we can get back to our daily lives.

Amazing amount of confirmations in the US and UK.

UK confirmations are the highest ever – the good news deaths are still relatively low

Same can be said for the US – always suspect on the latest data point – likely revised later.

Our initial Omicron watch countries are not showing a reduction in confirmation

NY has confirmed over 20% of the population – now equivalent to being on the Princess Diamond.

At this pace deaths will exceed the initial high forecast done back in September. A large piece of the analysis that was off was the extent of confirmations this year vs. last year.

Covid19mathblog.com

It is only appropriate and fair and balance to look at the responses to Dr. Malone given the amount view/listened. Here is the factcheck response to Dr. Malone concern of giving the youth the vaccine. There is quite a bit of semantics in the response – note PUBLISHED DEC 23 2021 – https://factcheck.afp.com/http%253A%252F%252Fdoc.afp.com%252F9V36YN-1?s=09

“In the video, Malone identifies spike proteins as dangerous and the source of the purported organ problems. "A viral gene will be injected… This gene forces your child’s body to make toxic spike proteins. These proteins often cause permanent damage in children’s critical organs," he said.

"That’s false," said Paul Offit, infectious disease physician and director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.

"There’s no evidence, either in experimental animals or people," he said.”

Dr Paul Offit is certainly esteemed and worthy of a listen and deserves to have his perspective heard to society – https://perma.cc/3WB3-29LE

“Paul A. Offit, MD, is Director of the Vaccine Education Center and professor of pediatrics in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. He is the Maurice R. Hilleman Professor of Vaccinology at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania.

Dr. Offit is an internationally recognized expert in the fields of virology and immunology, and was a member of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He is a member of the Food and Drug Administration Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, and a founding advisory board member of the Autism Science Foundation and the Foundation for Vaccine Research, a member of the Institute of Medicine and co-editor of the foremost vaccine text, Vaccines.”

Note he does have some conflict of interest given attached to FDA – not that should exclude him from his opinion mattering but a doctor with just as much accolade not tied to past or current govt decisions perhaps is more neutral on new evidence.

“American Academy of Pediatrics fellow Deborah Greenhouse agreed. "There is absolutely no evidence that the spike proteins generated in response to the Covid-19 vaccine are toxic," she said.

Messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines work by introducing a "blueprint" of the coronavirus spike protein, part of the virus that the body can then recognize and fight if it encounters it later, without ever exposing it to the actual virus.

The Pfizer and Moderna Covid-19 shots are the first to use the cutting-edge technology. They differ from traditional vaccines, which confront the immune system with part of a virus in a weakened or deactivated form to build antibodies.

Greenhouse explained: "The spike protein is a useful target for the vaccine because it is different than other proteins that humans can produce. So our immune system is able to recognize it as foreign and mount an immune response against it. There is also no evidence that the spike protein remains in the body longer than other typical proteins and no evidence that it causes significant damage."”

Dr. Greenhouse is less esteemed but certainly qualified to talk about children related health issues giving she is a practicing primary care pediatrician. Not sure on her expertise on virology and stating the above to say the spik protein are not toxic – https://perma.cc/AF3M-X9H9

“ Deborah M. Greenhouse, MD, is a primary care pediatrician at Palmetto Pediatric and Adolescent Clinic in Columbia, South Carolina. A native of Rockaway, New Jersey, she completed her undergraduate degree at Clemson University in Clemson, South Carolina, and received her medical degree from Emory University in Atlanta. She completed her pediatrics residency at Prisma Health Richland Hospital in Columbia and joined Palmetto Pediatrics in 1992.”

“AFP Fact Check debunked another claim that spike proteins are dangerous in May 2021, when experts said that the spike proteins in Covid-19 vaccines are safe because they only remain in a person’s arm muscle for a short period.

"There is no evidence to support that spike proteins produced by the Covid-19 mRNA vaccines are toxic in any way," said Alexandra Yonts, a pediatric infectious diseases physician at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, DC.

Millions of people across the world have now been vaccinated with mRNA Covid-19 vaccines, and rigorous safety follow-up and data collection "don’t show any evidence of toxicity on a gross scale," she said.”

“"There is absolutely no evidence that the spike proteins can cause permanent damage to children’s vital organs," Greenhouse said.

“"Myocarditis is clearly a consequence of the mRNA vaccine. It’s rare, but it’s real," Offit said. But the condition is "short-lived, transient and self-resolving."

Both Offit and Yonts pointed out that data shows the rare cases of myocarditis are not a direct consequence of the spike proteins themselves, as Malone says.

Scientists are still learning about these myocarditis cases, but they are more likely connected to the body’s innate immune response, not the specific Covid-19 shot spike proteins, said Yonts.

She added that data shows Covid-19 infection could potentially cause the issues listed by Malone, but not the mRNA vaccines.”

Dr. Yonts is a specialist in infectious disease but once again note the connection to the FDA – https://perma.cc/2PVP-WAAP

“Alexandra Brugler Yonts, M.D., (she/her), is an attending physician in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children’s National and is an assistant professor of Pediatrics at The George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences. Dr. Yonts completed her pediatric residency and was a chief resident at the University of California, Davis and completed her pediatric infectious diseases fellowship here in D.C. as part of the combined Children’s National/US Food and Drug Administration program. She received her medical degree from the University of Nebraska College of Medicine.”

So what is the definition of something toxic – something that can potentially cause harm at certain levels? – IF the spike protein was not harmful – then WHY would this study published on April 30th 2021 – they are noting the concerns of the spike protein and even concluding to modify the vaccine in order to reduce ACE2 interference. Could the vaccine spike protein ACE2 interference be harmful? –

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8084611/

“In this context, viral vector vaccines might trigger a further enhancement of the immune reactions against Spike proteins by engaging a stronger innate responses also mediated by cytokines, chemokines and immune cells [21]. Such immune reaction appears to mimic an active COVID-19 disease. Previous studies dating back to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-1 infection showed that vaccines based on the full-length Spike protein of SARS-CoV may induce a strong immune inflammatory responses at various levels including the lung and the liver”

“When applying the results of clinical trials to the real life, we cannot exclude the possibility that the vaccination of a growing number of subjects from different Countries with preexisting immunity to SARS-Cov-2 may trigger unexpectedly intense, albeit very rare, inflammatory and thrombotic reactions in previously immunized and predisposed individuals.”

“In this context, protein engineering approaches to identify binders to viral entry proteins may offer an alternative therapeutic strategy to ameliorate the potential detrimental effects of the interaction between ACE2 and Spike proteins. It has been suggested that the use of vaccines with DNA templates or mRNA encoding mutated Spike proteins with conformational change (from pre-fusion conformation to post-fusion conformation after interactions with ACE2, or change in RBD) might partly lose adherence to ACE2 receptors”

As noted by Dr. Malone it’s the job of the pharma to prove it is safe not for people to prove that it can do harm. If they have not ameliorated the concern of the ACE2 interference there is certainly a potential to cause harm which at some definition one could call toxic. Perhaps in the long run we will see that it is not an issue – but certainly the near term issues of myocarditis and zoster reactivation which seems to be from the spike protein is not signaling 100% no harm. Perhaps there is a level of acceptable harm but this is the same debate on the fatality figures for the youth from covid.

Near the end there is a discussion of risk/reward – this is something that the backgrounds they presented are not necessarily in advantage of traders and mathematicians.

“"The theoretical risk of Covid vaccines absolutely do not outweigh the benefit of the vaccine," said Greenhouse.

"Over 1,000 children have now died from Covid infection. Tens of thousands have been hospitalized. One of my patients was hospitalized this past week with significant illness from Covid disease," she said.

"The vaccine has been shown to be safe and effective for children five years of age and older," Greenhouse said, adding: "The risk benefit ratio based upon data available to this point clearly favors vaccinating children ages five-11."

Yonts also emphasized that there is "absolutely a benefit to vaccinating your children for Covid-19."

“Offit characterized the Malone video as "dangerously, flagrantly incorrect."

He added: "If anyone takes this man seriously, then they could put either themselves or their children at risk."

Greenhouse said she found the video to be "misleading and frankly dangerous," and "misinformation."

"People without a medical background will believe the statements in the video because Malone comes across as a knowledgeable ‘expert.’ The result is that many parents will decide not to vaccinate their children based upon this misinformation. That is why it is so crucial for us to widely disseminate evidence-based, study-proven information," she said.

Yonts said that her "overall take is that there’s just no rationale behind it, and I find it irresponsible to put that out there without anything to back up his claims."”

As pointed out in the previous blog post https://covid19mathblog.com/2022/01/covid-1-3-22/ – a link to the recent youth demographic shows there are criteria’s which could further segment the risk of covid and shift the risk/reward for your child – 2/3 of those HOSPITALIZED had 1 or more comorbidity with obesity being the dominant one. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm705152a3.htm?s_cid=mmmm705152a3_w&s=09

It’s a shame they didn’t take the extra step to calculate the amount of confirmations of youth in those states during that same time period so we can calculate the true fatality and hospital rates.

So given the above concerns you have to weigh the risk (the small adverse reaction to the vaccine) vs reward (reduction of probability from a very small number to begin with of hospitalization/death/long covid?) – also noting the many studies now pointing out to natural immunity superior and long-term benefit of childhood infection. THIS IS NOT A CLEAR cut choice – clearly some are in situation (multiple comorbidity which would shift the odds – some are not – many perhaps have prior infection already) – vax for all youth is not appropriate strategy given the various risk/reward profiles with no clear evidence of no harm.

Regardless the CDC is pushing the Pfizer booster for 12-15 per Omicron – https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/01/05/cdc-panel-recommends-pfizer-boosters-for-12-to-15-year-olds-amid-omicron-surge.html

The amazing turn of events is the coming out of arguing being healthy is irrelevant? https://www.tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/immunsystem-covid-19-101.html

“Whether you get infected with the coronavirus or not does not depend on whether you have a functioning or a weakened immune system, but on whether you inhale virus aerosols or not. Anyone who inhales virus aerosols is infected and therefore potentially contagious. This also does not prevent a functioning immune system.”

“"There is evidence that a functioning immune defense plays a role immediately after infection," says Carsten Watzl, immunologist at TU Dortmund University. But you can’t rely on that. The immune system is – if at all – just one of many factors that are not all known. He points out that young, healthy people with a completely intact immune system also become seriously ill.”

“the study results show how Sars-CoV-2 uses a mechanism of the immune system that is actually intended for defense and turns it into its opposite. What actually works as a "defense mechanism" probably enables the SARS-CoV-2 virus to board more and more cells in the body and multiply there. "At this stage, the virus is no longer the villain, but the immune system itself," explains immunologist Watzl. Therefore, immunosuppressive drugs are also given for treatment at this stage of the disease.”

“This means that these specific deficits in the immune system have nothing to do with whether these people eat a healthy diet or whether they get enough fresh air. "At the moment we have no way of strengthening a normally functioning immune system specifically against Sars-CoV2 with any vitamins or remedies," said Watzl. The only effective and targeted strengthening of the immune system against the corona virus is vaccination.”

“One thing is clear: a functioning immune system is of course better than a weakened immune system and a balanced diet, fresh air and enough sleep is always a good idea. "But," said Watzl, "even if everyone had a functioning immune system, this pandemic would not be over." Firstly, the immune system is – if at all – only one factor among many that decide whether and how severely someone becomes ill. Second, it does not protect against infection, including infecting someone unnoticed. Masks, keeping your distance and the rules of hygiene are urgently needed – no matter how your own immune system works.”

WOW – just wow. There is one thing that I find worthwhile in the article above- it is not the virus killing people – which goes back to the discussion Dr. Chetty https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAvpxgCnDx0 which hypothesized it is an allergic reaction to the left over spike protein. IF this is true a healthy immune system by logical deduction would reduce the volume of viral load particles. A strong immune system and lower obesity WILL reduce viral load which IF this theory holds true reduce the volume of items to be allergic too!

The booster push is an amazing outcome too given studies and concerns of bioaccumulation of spike protein and those who have recently recovered from infection have much higher adverse effects from jab and the fact the booster does little for Omicron- https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.30.21268565v1?s=09

“Two doses of COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to protect against infection by Omicron. A third dose provides some protection in the immediate term, but substantially less than against Delta. Our results may be confounded by behaviours that we were unable to account for in our analyses. Further research is needed to examine protection against severe outcomes”

We need a new procurement specialist/department for US govt – We just spent $700 for treatment which could be $18.77?!! https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/indias-dr-reddys-launch-generic-covid-19-merck-pill-about-50-cents-2022-01-04/?

“Indian drugmaker Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd (REDY.NS) will launch its generic version of Merck’s (MRK.N) antiviral COVID-19 pill, molnupiravir, and price it at 35 rupees ($0.4693) per capsule, a company spokesperson said on Tuesday.

The overall cost for a patient treated with a 5-day course of 40 capsules of the generic drug, to be sold under brand name ‘Molflu’, will come up to 1,400 rupees ($18.77). In comparison, the treatment with Merck’s pill in the United States costs $700.”

Just what we needed another variant and Flurona (flu and covid) – https://www.dw.com/en/new-coronavirus-variant-identified-in-france/a-60329823

Looks like for sure there will be significant amount of natural immunity – best have some treatments/prophylactics – https://www.austinisd.org/announcements/2022/01/04/back-school-testing-results-145-positivity-en-espannol?fbclid=IwAR3osd-Fkq6wNQUCLKc5XhmLzN-yQbSZeIvMeHWgYPbCMYQeXLBxvOfiJVI&s=09

“Back-to-school COVID-19 testing on Monday and Tuesday yielded a 14.5% overall positivity rate.

Austin-Travis County experienced a COVID-19 test positivity rate of more than 30% last week.

The positivity rate among molecular PCR tests in Texas is now 34.4% and 19.7% among antigen tests.”

Interesting news is Australia rejection of Novak Djokovic Visa as the tennis body approved his exemption but was denied by the govt. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/tennis/tennis-stars-back-protocols-and-medicos-ruling-on-vax-exemptions-20220103-p59lhm.html?s=09

“While compulsory vaccination has previously applied to staff and spectators at other tournaments, the Australian summer is the first time players have been subject to the rules.

Tennis Australia boss Craig Tiley has revealed a handful of unvaccinated players had been granted medical exemptions – a process he said was more rigorous than for other visitors to Australia.

Various players endorsed the role of medical professionals and the protocols in place to properly assess health issues that could justify an exemption.

Three-time major semi-finalist Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov said: “I’m not a doctor but I’m sure there’s a reason that if somebody needs that [an exemption]. If it’s legit … if it’s to that extent and that point, then of course.”

Australian veteran Sam Stosur said it was not the role of fellow players to argue against them.

“I think if they’ve been given a medical exemption, then it’s for a medical exemption, so I think you’ve got to do that. But, yeah, hopefully it’s for the right reasons,” said the Queenslander.

““There are two medical panels that assess any application, and they assess it in a blind way. They don’t know who the applicant is,” Tiley said.

“Against the ATAGI [Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation] guidelines, an exemption gets granted or not. The reason for granting that exemption remains private, between the panel and the applicant.””

So interestingly Djokovic got the exemption but upon arrival got rejected by the Australian govt – note the above exemption was done BLIND so no influence of person. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/border-force-investigate-more-medical-exemptions-novak-djokovic/100742868?s=09

“Djokovic arrived at Melbourne’s Tullamarine airport on Wednesday night but was detained by the ABF after it was determined he did not meet the entry requirements for an unvaccinated traveller.”

“The 34-year-old had tried to enter Australia on the basis that he had contracted COVID-19 in the past six months and had been provided a valid exemption by Tennis Australia for being unvaccinated.

Government sources say Djokovic handed Border Force officials a medical exemption on Tennis Australia letterhead that was signed by the organisation’s Chief Medical Officer, but this was rejected.”

Besides his stance on not announcing his vax status he is also a plant based athlete which has already caused him to be controversial. Clearly the risk of the vax is not 0 – probably very low but not zero and no one wants be the rare exception – https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Tennis_Interviews/102836/jeremy-chardy-i-regret-getting-vaccinated-i-have-series-of-problems-now/?s=09

Speaking of Australia they are seeing massive confirmation and just as high amount of deaths as last year – when do you change strategy?

For those following the blog – the blog has been an early proponent of mask – they do reduce transmission but it’s a small amount so best once again for those with high risk. Clearly not all mask are equivalent. The US govt perhaps should have been offering N95 mask more than pushing vaccines in terms of reducing transmission. Clearly N95 is MORE effective than vaccination status in reducing transmission! https://www.wsj.com/articles/cloth-face-mask-omicron-11640984082?s=09

The positive news we have very low fatality rates across the globe.

In the US Ohio leads the nation in deaths

This latest surge is essentially everywhere and is indifferent to vaccination status.

Covid19mathblog.com

The big news with over 40 million views is Joe Rogan interview with Dr. Robert Malone. It’s a long one so I have summarized some points of interest and the associated time. Overall he certainly doesn’t come off as how the media has portrayed him – as some attention getter right wing conspirator. I would highly recommend listening and watching parts to see if that vibe is real or perhaps there is a campaign to influence you to already discredit him even though his credentials are impressive to begin with. – https://open.spotify.com/episode/3SCsueX2bZdbEzRtKOCEyT?si=VubWXyw5SO2WNbOtS2LytQ

Dr. Robert Malone Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_W._Malone

Robert Wallace Malone is an American virologist and immunologist. His work has focused on mRNA technology, pharmaceuticals, and drug repurposing research.

Robert Malone received his BSc in biochemistry from the University of California, Davis in 1984, his MSc in biology from the University of California, San Diego in 1988, and his MD from Northwestern University in 1991.[5][6] He also attended Harvard Medical School for a year-long postdoctoral studies program.

Recently banned from twitter

Time noted and paraphrased from that section

16 Initially banned from LinkedIn in pointing out the head of Reuters also on board of Pfizer – Vaccine hesitancy is the issue that the fact checkers are focused on.

20 Noted he has taken the vaccine. Got the alpha Feb 2020 – took famotidine (Pepcid) histamine blocker – currently in que for study more effective with Ivermectin but too complicated to add it into the study per politics. HCQ was made so only could be administered in hospitals but that was too late – NOTE the Pfizer pill requires given 1-5 days onset – did not use same criteria as HCQ?

30 Merck coming out saying IVM was not safe was a big red flag that something was going on. One of the safest drug of all time.

31 Concerted effort to destroy IVM. IVM in bulk could be under a penny a dose!

32 China govt was using HCQ

35 When got infected did not get hospitalized – but had long covid

36 Higher risk of adverse reaction from jab if formerly infected. Had 2 moderna shot thinking it would reduce long covid – got high blood pressure, hypertension, narcolepsy, restless leg syndrome

38 Natural Immunity 6-13X from hospitalization 20X preventing infection – as an immunologist wouldn’t expect anything different

40 2-4 fold increase of vaccination adverse effect (VAE) after natural immunity

41 Aspiration issue with vaccination is silly to him – most trained nurse do it.

42 Coordinated media/propaganda occurring

44 Trusted News Initiative was originally created to prevent foreign interference in voting. Now being used for covid from pharma and also used for climate change denier

46 Media is muting anything that can be considered to cause vaccination hesitancy – this can even be corporations making errors and being critical of them

51 Dr. Fauci and team cancelled the Great Barrington Declaration – focused on analysis showing lockdown causes more harm than help – noted this before on this blog – but the founders have very high credentials –https://gbdeclaration.org/

101 Perverse Financial incentives for hospitals. Paid to declare covid and hospitalization (~3K), Paid to Incubate (~3K), Paid to report death from covid (~3k)

106 13 yr old girl had an adverse effect – part of the 1000 trial case – but was only listed as stomach issue – but has seizure and paralysis and now in wheel chair.

111 Outsource many clinical trials. Modest clinical trial cost $20 million. Big ones are $100 million – incentive to please the funder of study is great to get further study later. Contractor manipulation is concerning.

113 Reuters has been determined to be the fact checker of twitter (CEO of Reuters also sits on the board of Pfizer)

115 Attack on medical doctors – Peter McCullough $150K in debt protecting his medical license

116 Dr. Kirk Milhoan license threaten because of prescribing prophylactic drugs HCQ and IVM – https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2021/08/board-files-complaints-against-maui-health-officer-physician/

“Jayson Horiuchi, spokesperson for the Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs, confirmed that the board filed separate complaints against Maui District Health Officer Dr. Lorrin Pang and pediatric cardiologist Dr. Kirk Milhoan on Thursday with the Regulated Industries Complaints Office.”

“Milhoan, who also supports the use of the drugs for early treatment,…”

“Milhoan, who runs the For Hearts and Souls free clinic and is also the senior pastor at Calvary Chapel South Maui, also said that he supports treatments like steroids and monoclonal antibodies but that he was looking for early treatments to keep people out of the hospital.

“I understand I’m going to be investigated. I thought this might happen,” Milhoan said Friday. “Usually people who suggest early treatment come under some type of scrutiny for what they’re doing. I’m not anti-vaxxer. I’m pro-vaccine. I’m not asking people not to get vaccinated. All I’m trying to do is, I see people who are infected, now what do I do? It’s too late (at that point) to say, ‘Go get vaccinated.’ “

Milhoan said he has cared for about 90 COVID-19 patients on Maui and has not prescribed hydroxychloroquine or ivermectin to all of them, saying it depends on what stage he treats them.

“I’m seeing people in the very throes of this disease,” Milhoan said. “I’m really concerned about what’s going on at the hospital. They’re overloaded. I’m trying to see people at their homes, evaluate them, evaluate their lung system, evaluate their oxygenation system and keep them out of the hospital. And I know I’ve been able to keep many people out of the hospital.”

He said his doctor had put him on hydroxychloroquine for a year as a preventative measure, and that he took it more frequently when he actually came down with COVID-19. While Milhoan said he is pro-vaccine and has been inoculated against a wide range of diseases because of his time in the military, he said he did not take the COVID-19 vaccine because he has immunity after recovering from the virus.”

118 He personally also got attacked for his license from MD – complaint was filed from Maui hospital Director of Recruiting with the basis of the Atlantic Monthly smear piece (see 124). Hospital & hospitalist are attacking physicians outside hospitals. Early treatment prevents hospitalization – But of course vaccination also does that so this is conflicting – but of course they do get money from vaccinating but nothing from physicians treating outside hospital.

124 The hit piece – https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/robert-malone-vaccine-inventor-vaccine-skeptic/619734/

The piece was funded by Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (major holder of J&J) and the Zuckerberg foundation. Historically writes about education – https://www.chronicle.com/author/tom-bartlett

126 Pointed out the reason why he saying what he is saying because he is defending his profession

127 Menstrual cycle issue noted – females becoming early menopause – and females coming off menopause

129 Noted experiment in mouse showing the lipid particle (the covering of the vaccine) 11% going to ovaries and also bone morrow

135 Spike protein whether vaccine or virus impacts the ACE2 which can influence cardiac blood vessels

142 The vaccine is engineered but the engineering is just a switch to prevent fusion – the rest of the spike is the same as found in virus so ACE2 impact can happen

144 Pharma needs to prove that the vaccine is safe not for doctors like him to prove that its not safe

149 Zoster reactivation – (Latent DNA virus) is a real concern for the vaccination.

152 Vaccination impact of Tcell suppression. There is a window of time that allows for increase infection. Concern for multiple jabs

156 Peter McCullogh takes back that one who is natural immunity can get it again – omicron changed his mind.

157 However Dr. Malone noted he got Alpha and got Delta even after two moderna shots 4 months later!

159 Negative efficiency is happening – but noted largely more a behavior issue as noted here on this blog many times. Vaccinated person changes behavior resulting in getting infected vs. if not infected.

201 Pharma was asked but not required to study impact of behavior change – but since not required did not do it.

207 Natural immunity can also come from common cold because very similar structure and response from immune system. Your history of your experiences of immune system highly influences your responses.

211 Omicron infected upper airway – good thing less fatal.

215 95% of those died has 4 or more comorbidity – not really I found it to be closer to 85% https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0258154 but still shows your health is key – IT JUST SO HAPPENS as you age the odds of increasing multiple comorbidity increases therefore you see an age death increase too! Need to filter out 65+ 0-1 commorbidity vs. 2+ comorbidity to realize age is just a number – but your health is what matters.

219 Omicron R0 = 7-10 – which means everyone will get it regardless of mask or social distancing – only pure isolation could prevent it.

225 Omicron short term illness – Delta is wicked bad – months in hospital. Therefore large longterm hospitalization likely Delta and withholding Monoclonal antibody is not a good strategy.

234 Dr. Malone happily married 62 yrs old – kids married – farm almost paid off – really doesn’t want the attention

236 Pfizer are of the most criminal pharma based on history – $10.2 Billion penalties since 2000 – https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/pfizer

237 Mass Formation Psychosis – trying to explain how can the information and media be taken over – Brought up Professor Mattias Desmet – here is his discussion – https://open.spotify.com/episode/3PEcnjcKAUnhAZd4LOKcAU?si=CpwiAtW2SSyaR7RPdQr7fw

244 Joe Rogan noted his vaccinated friends asking him to join them by getting vaccinated – but he does not want to given his natural immunity.

248 2 hills Dr. Malone will die on – Stop jab for children – Resisting erosion of free speech.

253 Impact of youth is real – bullying of the children who are unvax – is a real issue for me – My youngest daughter has been bullied to get vax but I will not give her permission as she has had some bad responses of past vaccines plus I don’t see the risk/reward for her and now she has natural immunity. In hindsight I was clearly right as she has fully recovered from covid without any long covid. What is amazing she chooses to wear a mask and social distance whereas her bullies do not. Its very much a peer pressure environment and the system is not helping to address this.

256 brought up Face the nation Jan Crawford 27.56 https://www.cbsnews.com/video/full-face-the-nation-2021-correspondents-panel/#x – noted the most underreported story is the youth impact – teenager odds of dying from covid 1 in 1 million – Suicide for females in 2021 up 50+% increase

257 Kids stats are likely also in adults just easier to hide the adverse effects in adults. Notes nurse are reporting these issues. These adverse effects also found in infection. The difference in infection vs. jab – if jab you are associated with the result – there is a level of culpability. I have said that with vaccinating your child – the heartbreak would be unbearable if something happened to your child from your decision vs. fate.

Since we ended this with youth – there is a recent youth study done on those hospitalized under 18 – they did separate the with and from issue – identifying 20% was the with and 80% from Covid- https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm705152a3.htm?s_cid=mmmm705152a3_w&s=09

“CDC partnered with six children’s hospitals to review medical record data for patients aged <18 years with COVID-19–related hospitalizations during July–August 2021.†† Among 915 patients identified, 713 (77.9%) were hospitalized for COVID-19 (acute COVID-19 as the primary or contributing reason for hospitalization), 177 (19.3%) had incidental positive SARS-CoV-2 test results (asymptomatic or mild infection unrelated to the reason for hospitalization), and 25 (2.7%) had multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), a rare but serious inflammatory condition associated with COVID-19.§§”

Once again they show it to be important to be healthy – as in the general discussion its generally ok to have 1 comorbidity – it’s the multiple comorbidity issue – 2/3 with more than 1 – with obesity the leading comorbidity.

“Among the 713 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, 24.7% were aged <1 year, 17.1% were aged 1–4 years, 20.1% were aged 5–11 years, and 38.1% were aged 12–17 years. Approximately two thirds of patients (67.5%) had one or more underlying medical conditions, with obesity being the most common (32.4%); among patients aged 12–17 years, 61.4% had obesity.”

Another very interesting video – perhaps the conclusion of why the vaccine is more fringe – mass killing – but I find the hypothesis of the mechanism of the virus fatality is very interesting and very overlapping with Dr. McCullough and Dr. Malone concerns. The fatality is from the allergic reaction to the left over from the infection – not the virus itself but the left over e.g. spike protein. The vaccine is exposing you to spike protein which is building your tolerance to the spike protein which is what is killing you. This is how it is benefiting. There is no value for society in terms of transmission particularly true if this is an allergen issue. Being an allergen this makes sense why antihistamines or histamine blockers worked previously. Obviously reducing the initial virus limits the amount of spike protein – but IF the only issue is the reaction to the spike protein eliminating that should eliminate the whole issue too. Perhaps could Omicron just have less spike protein afterwards reducing the hospitalizations?

Bio: Dr. Shankara Chetty is a Medical doctor with a natural science background in genetics, advanced biology, microbiology and biochemistry.

He live and works in South Africa, where he also treated over 8000 patients from C 19 without the need of hospitalisation or death for the patients.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAvpxgCnDx0

https://vimeo.com/658304252

Amazing how CDC is addressing staff shortage – would you rather just have a healthy staff with prior infection but unvaxxed vs. a vaxxed staff asymptomatic or recovered after 5 days? The vaccine is not showing any transmission benefit – why make it a requirement to work?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/mitigating-staff-shortages.html?s=09

Yes there are some who are naturally immune – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10360873/Mounting-evidence-suggests-people-naturally-Covid-resistant-virus-mutates.html

“It’s a common yet curious tale: a household hit by Covid, but one family member never tests positive or gets so much as a sniffle.

Meanwhile there are those who have had Covid and been double-jabbed and boosted, yet still pick up the virus again.

As infections continue to soar in the new Omicron wave – an astonishing one in 25 people in England have Covid, according to Office for National Statistics data – cases of people who managed to stay free of the infection become ever more remarkable. Is it sheer luck? Some kind of superpower?”

“UCL team carried out further tests on hundreds more blood samples collected as far back as 2011, long before the pandemic struck, and discovered that about one in 20 also had antibodies that could destroy Covid”

“Samples taken from children had the highest levels. Scientists said this was possibly because they were regularly exposed to cold-causing coronaviruses through mixing with large numbers of other youngsters at nursery and school, which could explain why, now, Covid rarely causes severe illness in this age group.”

Interesting to see the amazingly low fatality rate over the last 30 days in the US 0.10%! Either/or superior treatment and/or omicron is much less fatal and/or so much testing

For our comparable Sweden update – we see Sweden now with the lowest 30 day fatality rate among comparable countries. Also showing the least amount of deaths for the past few weeks.

On the US front we see NY lead in confirmation and now Ohio leads in deaths.

Baltimore with its 77.8% fully vaccinated rate leads all counties in 7 day confirmation per capita at 4.56%. This is a huge number compared to the past weeks. Lets move on from saying vaccine remotely helps transmission – get rid of mandates so we can set that argument aside and go on with fixing the problem at hand. Health and ventilation is key. If it showed a significant reduction in transmission I could support mandates but it never did – in reality it was all modeled and society bought into it and refused to look at the reality the data presented.