Covid19mathblog.com

Some more not so good stat on long covid – https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/long-covid-study-lancet-lasting-symptoms/

“A striking 76 percent of all patients reported at least one continuing symptom six months later. The most common lasting problem was fatigue or muscle weakness, reported by 63 percent of all patients. Around a quarter of the cohort also reported sleep difficulties and anxiety or depression.

A smaller subset of the cohort completed comprehensive pulmonary testing and more than half displayed persistent chest imaging abnormalities. The degree of ongoing lung damage six months later correlated with the severity of the disease during the patients’ acute phase of hospitalization.”

Another variant…. https://time.com/5928445/coronavirus-covid19-virus-variant/

“The Japanese Health Ministry has found a coronavirus variant in people arriving from Brazil that’s different from the ones in Britain and South Africa.

The variant was found in airport tests on a man in his 40s, a woman in her 30s and two teens, the ministry said Sunday. Japan was working with other nations, the WHO and other medical experts to analyze the new version of the virus, and it was still unclear whether available vaccines would work.

The man who tested positive had no symptoms upon arrival but was hospitalized after his breathing became difficult. The woman suffered head aches, one teen, a male, had a fever, while the other female teen had no symptoms, according to the ministry.”

Some good news….As noted many times I think a nasal spray is an obvious approach that should work given how the virus is getting into the system – https://www.jpost.com/health-science/nasal-spray-to-fight-covid-begins-clinical-trails-in-uk-654990

“The SaNOtize Nitric Oxide Nasal Spray (NONS), developed by a team of researchers in Vancouver, Canada, has proven to be 99.9% effective in killing the coronavirus in independent lab tests conducted at Utah State University’s Antiviral Research Institute.

Other studies have also shown a 95% reduction in COVID-19 infection based on rodent tests.

This unique treatment utilizes nitric oxide, which is produced in the human body, to directly combat the effects of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and can be delivered via nasal spray, throat gargle or nasal lavage.”

One shot vaccine coming from J&J at the end of Jan – https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/johnson-johnson-covid-vaccine-analysts-are-cautiously-optimistic.html

“J&J completed enrolment of its 45,000-participant phase three clinical trial for its single-dose vaccine candidate on December 17. Preliminary data from the trial is expected to be available by the end of the month.”

“With J&J’s technology, the vaccine is estimated to remain stable for at least three months at normal refrigerated temperatures so does not require new infrastructure to transport.”

“The company has committed to selling the vaccine on a not-for-profit basis for emergency pandemic use.

J&J entered into an agreement with the U.S. in August 2020 to deliver 100 million doses of the vaccine following approval or emergency use authorization by the FDA, and the option to purchase up to 200 million additional doses under a subsequent agreement.

The U.K. negotiated a deal in August to initially purchase 30 million doses of the J&J vaccine with an option to purchase up to 22 million additional doses. The EU signed a deal with J&J in October for the supply of up to 400 million doses.

J&J has also agreed to provide up to 500 million doses of its vaccine as part of an agreement in principle with The Vaccine Alliance (Gavi), which is responsible for equitable access to vaccines, including to lower-income countries via COVAX. These doses will be distributed through 2022 if the vaccine candidate is approved for use.”

Sunday reports are the best….US death under 2K – no other country above 1K

For the US it is still a CA story

More precisely it is a LA story

CA is very centralized whereas TX is dispersed

No peak being set for LA still…..

Covid19mathblog.com

As discussed many times it is not just death that could be an issue. Long covid discussion has always been a concern as quality of life could be impacted severely. Once again just like the death stats- you want to be healthy (low BMI) and your chances of long covid get reduced. – https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/long-covid-who-is-at-risk

“Long Covid is characterized by a constellation of symptoms, including – variably – shortness of breath, marked fatigue, headache, and loss of ability to taste and smell normally. A relatively large study of 384 individuals ill enough to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19 showed that 53% remained breathless at a follow-up assessment one to two months later, with 34% having a cough and 69% reporting fatigue.

Indeed, early analysis of self-reported data submitted through the Covid Symptom Study app suggests that 13% of people who experience Covid-19 symptoms have them for more than 28 days, while 4% have symptoms after more than 56 days.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, people with more severe disease initially – characterized by more than five symptoms – seem to be at increased risk of long Covid. Older age and being female also appear to be risk factors for having prolonged symptoms, as is having a higher body mass index.”

“Another piece of early research (awaiting peer review) suggests that SARS-CoV-2 could also have a long-term impact on people’s organs. But the profile of those affected in this study is different from those reporting symptoms via the app.

This research, which looked at a sample of 200 patients who had recovered from Covid-19, found mild organ impairment in 32% of people’s hearts, 33% of people’s lungs, and 12% of people’s kidneys. Multiple organ damage was found in 25% of patients.

Patients in this study had a mean age of 44 years, so were very much part of the young, working-age population. Only 18% had been hospitalized with Covid-19, meaning organ damage may occur even after a non-severe infection. Having a disease known to lead to more severe Covid-19, such as type 2 diabetes and ischaemic heart disease, wasn’t a prerequisite for organ damage either.”

India investigating a nasal vaccine – https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/nasal-covid-19-vaccine-can-be-potential-gamechanger-say-experts-121011000128_1.html

“The nasal vaccine is different from two intramuscular vaccines which recently got approval, as it is non-invasive, needle-free, doesn’t require trained healthcare workers, eliminates needle-associated risks, suits children and adults and has scalable manufacturing.

Several studies have proved that the clinical efficacy of intranasal vaccine is superior to that of injectable vaccine. In India, Hyderabad-based Bharat Biotech has sought Drugs Controller General of India’s (DCGI) approval to conduct clinical trials of its nasal vaccine for coronavirus.

Last month, Pune-based Serum Insititute of India and Codagenix Inc had announced that they have received regulatory approval in the United Kingdom to begin an early-stage trial of their single-dose, intranasal coronavirus vaccine.”

“Alluding to the advantages of the nasal vaccine, he said its administration does not require syringes, and it is easy to administer, transport and store. "You can immunise a larger number of people in a small amount of time. There would be no need for people to come back for a second dosage," the noted epidemiologist said.

"It is a live attenuated vaccine. When you give it through the nose, there is the mucous membrane in the upper throat, where it gets absorbed and is able to develop the antibodies. Since it enters the mucous member directly, the absorption is faster," Kant said.

According to Bharat Biotech, an intranasal vaccine stimulates a broad immune response at the site of infection, in the nasal mucosa, which is essential for blocking both infection and transmission of Covid-19.”

Even though a weekend – large death reported for the US, Brazil, Mexico and UK

CA leads on confirmation but TX leads in death

LA leads all counties by a long shot in both death and confirmation. There was a large dispersion of deaths across TX

Even though TX leads in death the issue is still Southern CA – LA – large dispersion in TX – hundreds of miles apart.

Covid19mathblog.com

Better late than never? More confirmation that we went crazy for the wrong things e.g. hand sanitizer – https://www.eatthis.com/news-obsolete-things-covid-2021/

“4 things you can stop doing to avoid COVID now, according to Shirin Peters, MD, Founder of the Bethany Medical Clinic in New York.”

“now that we have more information about how the virus is primarily spread, disinfecting your groceries isn’t essential. "The rates of COVID transmission via fomite (viral particles sitting in tiny droplets of surface outside of a host and then being picked up via contact and transferred to another host) have been shown to be minimal with COVID-19," Dr. Peters points out. "Although it’s not impossible to get COVID from touching a surface, it’s highly unlikely."”

“sanitizing your hands "every two minutes" isn’t necessary now. "So long as you are washing your hands before and after handling your mask to put it on and take it off, and avoiding touching your face in general, there is no need for additional precautions," Dr. Peters says. "You cannot get COVID through the skin, so frequent sanitizing of your hands is an unnecessary precaution."”

“"For typical exposures outside your home, a 2-layer fabric mask has been shown to be as effective in preventing spread of COVID as an N95 mask," Dr. Peters explains. "In a medical setting where exposure risk is much higher, protective equipment including N95 masks are beneficial."”

“If you are still wearing gloves all the time outside the home, stop. "Although it’s not impossible to get COVID from touching a surface, it’s highly unlikely," says Dr. Peters.”

Found the study that perhaps indicate the reason why the variant is more transmissible. They conclude this by the low Ct for those that have the variant indicates that they have much higher viral load in the nasal area – thereby should be higher viral load when breathing and sneezing. – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248834v1.full.pdf

“(i) the population of S-gene dropout samples had significantly lower median Ct values of

ORF and N-gene targets compared to samples where S-gene was detected

(ii) on a population basis, S-gene dropout samples clustered around very low Ct values for

ORF and N targets

(iii) linked Ct values for individual samples showed that a low Ct for ORF and N were clearly

associated with an S-dropout characteristic

(iv) when conservatively inferring relative viral load from Ct values, approximately 35% of Sdropout samples had high viral loads between 10 and 10,000-fold greater than 1 x 106

compared to 10% of S-positive samples.”

Another sad reporting day US death 3456 – UK, Mexico, Germany above 1K. 283K confirmed in US! With so much confirmed the fatality rate in US now 1.7%

California leads in death and confirmation by a long shot

LA county leads by long shot

Map shows dispersion is limited to Southwest in general

Latest update shows LA deaths perhaps has not peaked.

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine good news – https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/01/08/pfizer-biontech-vaccine-appears-resistant-to-new-covid-variant-study-finds-as-us-records-deadliest-day

“New research from the University of Texas and U.S. drugmaker Pfizer suggests that the company’s Covid-19 vaccine, developed with Germany’s BioNTech, is still effective against the new highly-contagious coronavirus variants spreading rapidly through South Africa and the U.K., which have already been found in several U.S. states, as the U.S. records its deadliest day in the pandemic with 4,085 deaths on Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University.”

Moderna CEO sees the vaccine effective for years – https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/07/moderna-ceo-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-could-be/

“It’s possible that two jabs of Moderna’s (NASDAQ:MRNA) recently authorized coronavirus vaccine will be sufficient for long-term protection against the global health scourge. On Thursday, the company’s CEO Stephane Bancel said at a healthcare industry event that this is a likely possibility, due to the durability of the antibodies the vaccine produces.

"The antibody decay generated by the vaccine in humans goes down very slowly," he said in remarks quoted by Reuters. "We believe there will be protection potentially for a couple of years." He didn’t offer a more specific time forecast.”

New variant now in Harris County TX – https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/first-texas-case-of-more-contagious-covid-19-strand-confirmed-in-harris-county/

“A man living in Harris County became the first known person in Texas to get infected by the “more contagious” B.1.1.7 variant of COVID-19, and doctors think it could already be in Central Texas.

The Texas Department of State Health Services reported the man had no history of travel and that results of genetic sequencing have shown the infection was caused by the B.1.1.7 variant, first found in the United Kingdom.

“The fact that this person had no travel history suggests this variant is already circulating in Texas,” Dr. John Hellerstedt, the DSHS commissioner, said in a statement.”

Not good news on the stat front – over 4K deaths in US -Brazil, UK, Germany, Mexico all over 1K

California leads with 531 deaths

LA county leads all the US once again – need to quarantine the Southwest

It is so focused on southwest

Positive news it looks like LA might be peaking on both confirmation and deaths…

Some people make excuses for LA because it is so populated….on per capita it is way up there in confirmation for the last 30 days

The positive news is the fatality rate is not the worst for a county with 1 Million population and 50K plus confirmation for the last 30 days. LA is under 1% fatality rate.

Covid19mathblog.com

Interesting to see how rare regular flu shots cause allergic reaction – with the new vaccine running 10X to flu shot still is a low number – https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/06/cdc-says-severe-allergic-reactions-to-covid-vaccine-run-10-times-the-flu-shot-but-still-rare.html

“A new CDC study published Wednesday found that people receiving Covid-19 vaccines experience anaphylaxis at a rate 10 times higher compared with the flu vaccine.

Anaphylaxis is a severe and life-threatening allergic reaction that can occur after vaccination, though the condition is rare, the CDC said.

The severe allergic reactions among Covid vaccine recipients are still thought to be rare and the drugs are safe for people to use, a top CDC official told reporters before the study was published.”

“That would mean roughly 11 people out of every million vaccinated would likely experience anaphylaxis, according to CDC data — roughly 10 times higher than the rate for the flu vaccine.”

Perhaps all those party pictures over the new years in China is catching up to them – https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-china-reports-biggest-case-surge-in-5-months/a-56153810

“China’s Hebei province is carrying out mass testing drives and has banned public gatherings. China is experiencing its biggest surge in five months.”

The opposite spectrum is Russia who is noting lowest infection rate coinciding with their vaccine – https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6220863627001

“More than one million people in Russia have reportedly been vaccinated against COVID-19, with the nation recording its lowest infection rate in over 6 months.

Russia approved the Sputnik V jab, which was the first registered vaccine against COVID-19, in August 2020.

The jab was developed by the state-run Gamaleya Institute and boasts an efficacy rate of above 95 per cent, according to officials.

Sputnik V had drawn criticism from experts because widespread vaccinations were ordered before final safety and efficacy tests.”

Not a good reporting day US – 3865 deaths – Brazil, Mexico, Germany, and UK over 1K

Worldwide daily deaths are 2X what they were in the spring.

As expected in the US – CA leads the issue.

LA by a long shot relative to all other counties in the US – and the surround counties in SouthWest.

Dispersion growing but still mainly Southwest US

Covid19mathblog.com

This is not a good reporting day from a stats perspective and news. So if you want to keep your day happy read this later….

A new variant found in S. Africa – which has mutated the spike protein. This makes antibody treatments previously developed less effective. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/06/south-africa-covid-strain-a-guide-to-what-you-need-to-know.html

“South Africa named the variant “501Y.V2” because of the N501Y mutation they found in the spike protein that the virus uses to gain entry into cells within the body. This mutation, among others, was also found in the new strain that the U.K. identified in December (but estimated to have been in circulation since September) with both regarded as increasing the transmissibility of the virus, making it spread more efficiently.

With authorities in the U.K. and South Africa alerting the World Health Organization to the new mutations in December, the WHO noted that while both variants found in the U.K. and South Africa shared the N501Y mutation, they are different.

The variant in South Africa carries two other mutations in the spike protein (E484K and K417N, among others) which are not present in the U.K. strain, named “VOC-202012/01,” with VOC standing for “Variant of Concern.” Experts said the mutations could affect how vaccines against Covid work.”

“On Tuesday, former U.S. FDA chief Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned that vaccinating Americans against Covid is more critical than ever, especially as the variant in South Africa appears to inhibit antibody drugs, and is spreading elsewhere.

“The South Africa variant is very concerning right now because it does appear that it may obviate some of our medical countermeasures, particularly the antibody drugs,” Gottlieb told CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” on Tuesday.”

“The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted on Sunday that scientists are investigating the variants “to better understand how easily they might be transmitted and whether currently authorized vaccines will protect people against them.”

“Currently, there is no evidence that these variants cause more severe illness or increased risk of death. New information about the virologic, epidemiologic, and clinical characteristics of these variants is rapidly emerging,” it added.”

““Both vaccination against and natural infection with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus) produce a ‘polyclonal’ response that targets several parts of the spike protein. The virus would likely need to accumulate multiple mutations in the spike protein to evade immunity induced by vaccines or by natural infection,” the CDC said Sunday in its brief on the emerging variants.”

Expect to see death after vaccine stories – lots of data/variables to understand – just like those articles claiming “healthy” people dying from covid – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9111311/Portuguese-health-worker-41-dies-two-days-getting-Pfizer-covid-vaccine.html

“Sonia Acevedo suffered a ‘sudden death’ on New Year’s Day 48 hours after jab

The 41-year-old mother-of-two worked in paediatrics at a hospital in Porto

Ms Acevedo had not suffered any adverse side-effects after being vaccinated

An autopsy is expected to take place either today or tomorrow”

I listened to the podcast Odd Lots discussing the black death and its relationship to Covid – https://open.spotify.com/episode/1O9DirkbpjhLshsXjT2nuR?si=c7-Mops-QFe6Bw4kI_1tMQ This made me look into the black death stats and it shows the majority deaths <35 yrs old. Therefore it was much worse than what we have now. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3094018/#:~:text=Despite%20the%20limitations%20of%20the,ages%20of%20ten%20and%20fifteen

Compared to Covid deaths are 60+ now. So this time the labor shortage is not likely going to be see as noted in the black death.

As noted not a good stats day – US deaths top 3775 – Brazil, Mexico, Germany all above 1K

CA leading the way for US

Once again it is LA CA that is leading all US counties – by a long shot.

Clearly focused in the southwest region of US

On a positive note for LA some signs of peaking being observed.

Covid19mathblog.com

I found this article interesting and pointed out a big difference in mRNA vs. other typical vaccine which should appease many anti-vax groups – many were focused on the medium fluid used to deliver the vaccine e.g. blame metals in the fluid on autism https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/is-the-covid-19-vaccine-safe-for-everyone

“it’s possible that mRNA vaccines could be even safer than traditional vaccines. They don’t contain common allergens, like eggs or metals, which may open them up to even more people who have had to forgo vaccination in the past. (The Pfizer vaccine does, however, contain polyethylene glycol (PEG), an inactive ingredient found in several foods and over-the-counter medications that can sometimes, rarely, cause allergic reactions, according to ABC News.)”

Also not tested for youth yet – they are beginning trials.

“Testing on younger children is expected to begin in early 2021, though it’s unclear if vaccines will be widely available to children before the fall semester, according to the Associated Press.”

Well England is now in full lockdown plus out of the Euro…. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/british-prime-boris-johnson-imposes-national-lockdown-for-england-to-combat-new-covid-variant.html

“People can only leave their homes to shop for essentials, work if they can’t from home, exercise, go to the doctor’s and escape domestic abuse, he said in an announcement Monday evening.

Primary schools, secondary schools and colleges will move to remote learning Tuesday.”

“The country could consider reopening schools after the February half term if the vaccine rollout continues to go well, deaths start to fall and if “everyone plays their part by following the rules.””

“The U.K. government has decided to implement a 12-week delay between the first and second doses of both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccines, in a bid to cover as much of the population as possible.

The U.K.‘s independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies said Sunday that it endorsed the move, with conditions, however the British Medical Association has criticized the U.K.’s decision to delay second doses.”

The delaying of the second shot is a very bold move given NO TEST has been done this way. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/pfizer-we-dont-know-if-covid-19-vaccine-defends-without-second-shot-654252

“"There is no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days," BioNTech and partner Pfizer said in a Monday press release.”

“The current vaccination is meant to be delivered in the form of a prime shot, the first, and the booster shot, to be administered during the three weeks after the prime shot was given.

The report arrives on the heels of two developments; firstly, several nations, among them Germany and Britain, are considering extending the 21-day time limit to manage a predicted shortage of doses, Reuters reported.

Denmark already approved a delay of up to six weeks between prime shot and booster.”

Human made virus – Covid19 – lab mistake? Interesting paper on this issue. I do agree it is very suspicious the fact that IF it came from nature one should see a trail of destruction not just magically show up AND be so virulent. Also interesting to see US and China BOTH involved so both have some incentive to not have fingers pointed back at them. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.html

Too much information in this article to paste a summary – if interested it is a good read particularly if you like conspiracy. There are some key points not disputable.

“bat virus RaTG13 (named for the Rinolophus affinus bat, from Tongguan, in 2013) is the closest match to the human virus that has yet been found, and that although the two viruses are very similar, the spike protein of the bat virus lacks the features the human spike protein possesses that enable it to work efficiently with human tissue.”

Humans have been tinkering with viruses…

“In 2011, a tall, confident Dutch scientist, Ron Fouchier, using grant money from Fauci’s group at NIH, created a mutant form of highly pathogenic avian influenza, H5N1, and passaged it ten times through ferrets in order to prove that he could “force” (his word) this potentially fatal disease to infect mammals, including humans, “via aerosols or respiratory droplets.” Fouchier said his findings indicated that these avian influenza viruses, thus forced, “pose a risk of becoming pandemic in humans.”

This experiment was too much for some scientists: Why, out of a desire to prove that something extremely infectious could happen, would you make it happen? And why would the U.S. government feel compelled to pay for it to happen”?”

A movie is certainly going to be made – perhaps some sore of Oliver Stone movie….

Death below 2K in US

CA leading both confirmation and death

This time LA not leading in death but neighboring county Riverside

Stay clear of Southern California….

Covid19mathblog.com

As noted on 12/27/20 – ivermectin is looking promising to take as a treatment and as prophylactic – https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/12/covid-12-27-20/ – now we see this study https://swprs.org/who-preliminary-review-confirms-ivermectin-effectiveness/

“WHO-sponsored review of ivermectin trials indicates 83% reduction in covid mortality.

Dr Andrew Hill of the Department of Pharmacology at the University of Liverpool (UK) is currently performing a WHO-sponsored review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of ivermectin against covid. In the following 12-minute video, Dr Hill is presenting his preliminary results, which indicate a highly significant 83% reduction in covid mortality (95% CI 65%-92%).

This result is based on in-hospital trials, so it does not yet take into account early ambulatory and prophylactic treatment. The authors of the review intend to include three more trials, due to be published sometime in January, before providing a final conclusion. At the end of his presentation, Dr Hill describes ivermectin as a potentially “transformational treatment”.

As discussed before there is a large recommendation to not drink before, during, and after taking the vaccine. The reason is more apparent in this write up showing drinking actually reduces your immunity – so perhaps in general one should not drink too much besides helping the liver this will help your general immunity. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/drinking-alcohol-could-reduce-effectiveness-23257231

“Drinking alcohol could reduce the effectiveness of the coronavirus vaccine, experts have warned.”

“Alcohol alters the make-up of the microorganisms in the gut which help to halt bacteria and viruses spreading throughout the body.

This can mean the white blood cells – which release antibodies to attack the likes of Covid-19 and other bugs – become damaged or reduced and unable to fight off an attack.

As part of new BBC documentary, The Truth About… Boosting Your Immune System, which airs on Wednesday, Dr Ronx Ikharia conducted an experiment with Prosecco.”

“The emergency medicine specialist took blood samples before and after drinking three glasses of the popular Italian sparkling white wine.

They found the quantity was enough to reduce the levels of white lymphocyte cells in the blood by half.

Meanwhile, University of Manchester immunologist Professor Sheena Cruickshank said the reduction in lymphocytes could lower the effectiveness of the body’s immune response.”

“As a result, she has warned anyone receiving the vaccine to abstain from alcohol immediately before and after the jab.”

The best thing about Mondays is the lowest Covid death day for the week – 1394 for the US

California leads in confirmation with NY leading in deaths

LA is still the top county in all of the US in deaths and confirmation. NY county didn’t even show up in the top 5.

Large dispersion in NY

Still no good news for LA

Covid19mathblog.com

Pointed out very early here and also now documented that Dr. Fauci himself takes vitamin D – this should be distributed free to society particularly in the hotspots. There is no excuse for this. Another Vitamin D supported study – this time showing a reduction in advance cancer – also important note to reduce obesity as that impacts Vitamin D efficacy – lets get healthy! – https://scitechdaily.com/study-finds-vitamin-d-supplements-reduce-risk-of-developing-advanced-cancer/

“In a paper published in JAMA Network Open, the team reports that vitamin D was associated with an overall 17 percent risk reduction for advanced cancer. When the team looked at only participants with a normal body mass index (BMI), they found a 38 percent risk reduction, suggesting that body mass may influence the relationship between vitamin D and decreased risk of advanced cancer.

“These findings suggest that vitamin D may reduce the risk of developing advanced cancers,” said corresponding author Paulette Chandler, MD, MPH, a primary care physician and epidemiologist in the Brigham’s Division of Preventive Medicine. “Vitamin D is a supplement that’s readily available, cheap and has been used and studied for decades. Our findings, especially the strong risk reduction seen in individuals with normal weight, provide new information about the relationship between vitamin D and advanced cancer.”

“Of the 7,843 participants with a normal body mass index (BMI less than 25) taking vitamin D, only 58 were diagnosed with advanced cancer compared with 96 taking the placebo.

While the team’s findings on BMI could be due to chance, there is previous evidence that body mass may affect vitamin D action. Obesity and associated inflammation may decrease the effectiveness of vitamin D, possibly by reducing vitamin D receptor sensitivity or altering vitamin D signaling. In addition, randomized trials of vitamin D and type 2 diabetes have found greater benefits of vitamin D in people with normal weights and no benefit among those with obesity.

Vitamin D deficiency is common among cancer patients, with one study reporting rates of vitamin D deficiency as high as 72 percent among cancer patients. There is also evidence that higher amounts of body fat are associated with increased risk for several cancers.”

LA times self-analysis of crisis sounds like an excuse laden article to me. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-28/why-covid-19-cases-have-spread-wildly-in-l-a

There is nothing in this article in my mind that should not have been understood by now. They want to say they are so unique – its LA – that’s such a cop out – Taiwan and Japanese areas are a lot more population density with much lower buying power. One could look at Japan or Taiwan by mid year 2020 and figure an appropriate playbook. “Fatigue” “Indoor” excuses should have been understood. There was 0 possibility vaccine was going to be developed and distributed by year end – so we know its at least 9 months more of this you had to implement policies that could survive that time. It was understood early in Japan and also from the data we observed it was a viral load / ventilation issue. Why not implement standards to HVAC in commercial and industrial areas? Retrofit HVAC systems in those areas with govt. subsidies would have played a huge role in reduction. Support local businesses to create a safer environment. CO2 monitors should have been promoted and guidelines for numbers set – very cost effective. Then a society outreach in terms of understanding viral load and what people could do. Mask education and outreach – explain not perfect but does something and note when and where to use it. Open windows and fans may have increased power usage but that cost is very incremental to the cost being observed now. Comparing deaths to NYC when the county hasn’t even past peak confirmation is absurd – anything to feel better I guess….

Vaccine news – India approves 2 vaccines – https://www.24matins.uk/topnews/int/india-approves-two-covid-19-vaccines-for-emergency-use-261133

India has authorised the emergency use of two coronavirus vaccines developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University and by local pharmaceutical firm Bharat Biotech, the country’s drug regulator said Sunday.

“The… vaccines of Serum Institute (AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine) and Bharat Biotech are being approved for restricted use in emergency situations,” the Drugs Controller General of India, V.G. Somani, said at a briefing.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted that the fast-track approvals were “a decisive turning point to strengthen a spirited fight” that “accelerates the road to a healthier and Covid-free nation”.

Not much global press on the Bharat Biotech vaccine – https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/great-milestone-bharat-biotech-on-approval-for-emergency-use-of-covaxin-2347124

“Covaxin is being indigenously developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) – National Institute of Virology (NIV).

Covaxin is a highly purified and inactivated 2 dose SARS-CoV2 vaccine, manufactured in a Vero cell manufacturing platform with an excellent safety track record of more than 300 million doses, he said.

The Phase III human clinical trials of Covaxin began mid-November targeted to be done in "26,000" volunteers across India, and this is India’s first and only Phase III efficacy study for a COVID-19 vaccine, Krishna Ella said.

It is the largest phase III efficacy trial ever conducted for any vaccine in India, he added.

Covaxin has been evaluated in approximately 1,000 subjects in Phase I and Phase II clinical trials, with promising safety and immunogenicity results, with acceptance in international peer-reviewed scientific journals, Krishna Ella said.

This indigenous, inactivated vaccine is developed and manufactured in Bharat Biotech”s BSL-3 (Bio-Safety Level 3) bio-containment facility.

The evaluation of Covaxin has resulted in several unique product characteristics including long term persistence of immune responses to multiple viral proteins, as opposed to only the spike protein, and has demonstrated broad-spectrum neutralising capability with heterologous SARS-CoV2 strains, thus potentially reducing or eliminating escape mutants, the statement said.

"It has also shown to generate memory T cell responses, for its multiple epitopes, indicating longevity and rapid antibody response to future infections. Its most critical characteristic is the demonstrated safety profile, which is significantly lower than several other vaccines with published data," it said.

The future has been permanently changed due to covid 2020 experience. Working from home and less commuting is likely the new norm – the question is more at what level. For those refusing that possibility is refusing reality. Peak oil demand in countries like the US is a high outcome as less commuting and even less traveling with virtual conferences and meetings will have their place in the future. https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20201023-coronavirus-how-will-the-pandemic-change-the-way-we-work?sf241549940=1

“Our Future Forum research of 4,700 knowledge workers found the majority never want to go back to the old way of working. Only 12% want to return to full-time office work, and 72% want a hybrid remote-office model moving forward.”

US death under 3K – 2398

Ca leads confirmation and second place in death with MI leading in deaths.

LA county leads in both death and confirmation for all US counties. MI just has a much larger death dispersion.

You can see the Michigan death dispersion

LA has crossed Cook IL for confirmed per capita at 7.7% – Death reporting in LA likely to continue to be very robust for the following weeks. Recent 3wk confirmation death rate sits at 1.5%….so the 15K daily confirmations will lead to 200+ daily deaths.

Covid19mathblog.com

Interesting to see so much covid news from Israel – they have the highest percentage vaccinated now – https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reaches-1-million-mark-in-vaccinations-far-outpacing-rest-of-world/amp/

“Israel has vaccinated 1 million people against COVID-19, more than a tenth of its population, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday, as the country’s inoculation drive cemented its status as the world’s most rapid thus far.

Netanyahu was on hand to mark what he said was the millionth Israeli to receive a vaccine, in the Arab town of Umm al-Fahm.”

At the same time they think they have found a cure for covid-19 – https://www.cityam.com/israeli-medtech-firm-claims-it-may-have-found-covid-19-cure/

“According to Tel Aviv-based Novel Concepts Medical, the treatment is a combination of natural compounds and was proven in lab results to show a significant decrease in the amount of the Covid-19 ‘spike protein’ within a few hours of incubation The company’s founder, Dr. Rachel R. Alkalay, who is a PhD graduate of Queen Mary University London, explained to City A.M. that the spike protein is the part in the virus that connects the virus to the cell.

“All the research in the world is focused on this spike protein. We managed to decompose it. Essentially, this is the equivalent of taking the fuel out of a car,” Alkalay said.

“We are currently repurposing compounds that have already been tested on millions of people safely for other purposes. Our findings show that it is very possible to have an immediate effect in inhibiting the virus in people who have been exposed,” she added.

“It is clear to see from the lab results that the Novel Concepts Medical formula causes a significant reduction in the S1 and S2 proteins,” she said.

Alkalay said Novel Concepts Medical is now looking to collaborate with hospitals, both in Israel and other countries, to begin clinical trials.”

Japan success is understanding and interpreting the data quickly vs. being stuck in quagmire of dissertations with “experts”. It was mentioned very early here to ventilate! But it took forever for the US/WHO/CDC to get to that point – still had hand sanitizer runs for the longest time here… https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:YGND6SofQwwJ:https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/12/12/the-japanese-authorities-understood-covid-19-better-than-most+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

“In total 2,487 people have died of the coronavirus in Japan, just over half the number in China and fewer people than on a single day in America several times over the past week. Japan has suffered just 18 deaths per million people, a higher rate than in China, but by far the lowest in the g7, a club of big, industrialised democracies. (Germany comes in second, at 239.) Most strikingly, Japan has achieved this success without strict lockdowns or mass testing—the main weapons in the battle against covid-19 elsewhere.

“From the beginning we did not aim at containment,” says Oshitani Hitoshi, a virologist who sits on an expert panel advising the government. That would require identifying all possible cases, which is not feasible in a country of Japan’s size when the majority of infections produce mild or no symptoms, argues Mr Oshitani: “Even if you test everyone once per week, you’ll still miss some.” Japan performs the fewest tests in the g7: an average of 270 a day for every million people, compared with 4,000 or so in America and Britain (see chart).

Instead, the government tried to apply the lessons of the Diamond Princess. After trained quarantine officers and nurses were infected aboard the ship, despite following protocols for viruses that spread through droplets, Mr Oshitani’s team concluded that the virus spread through the air. As early as March, Japanese officials began warning citizens to avoid the san-mitsu or “3cs”: closed spaces, crowded places and close-contact settings. The phrase was blasted across traditional and social media. Surveys conducted in the spring found that a big majority were avoiding 3c settings. The publishing house Jiyukokuminsha recently declared it “buzzword of the year” for 2020.”

“The Diamond Princess also inspired an early focus on clusters. The government set up a cluster-busting taskforce in March.

These insights allowed the authorities to make granular distinctions about risks, opting for targeted restrictions rather than swinging between the extremes of strict lockdowns and free-for-all openings. Nishimura Yasutoshi, the minister overseeing the government’s response to covid-19, carries a device that monitors carbon dioxide to measure the quality of ventilation during his meetings. (The room where he and your correspondent meet registers 506 parts per million, safely below the threshold of 1000 ppm that indicates poor air flow. The interview takes place across a large table, behind plastic shields and with face masks on.)” [SEE STANDARDS BEING SET VS ARBRITARY CLOSURES LIKE ALL SETTINGS ARE THE SAME! –
CO2 measuring device are cheap! I have several – everyone should get one]

Researchers deployed Fugaku, the world’s fastest supercomputer, to model different situations. Crowded subways pose little risk, if windows are open and passengers wear masks, Mr Nishimura insists. Sitting diagonally, rather than directly across from each other can reduce the risk of infection by 75%. Movie theatres are safe, “even if viewers are eating popcorn and hot dogs”, Mr Nishimura says. While most cinemas in the West are closed, “Demon Slayer”, a new animeflick, has been playing to full houses in Japan, becoming the country’s second-highest grossing film ever. In addition to the 3cs, the Japanese government warns of five more specific dangers: dinner parties with booze; drinking and eating in groups of more than four; talking without masks at close quarters; living in dormitories and other small shared spaces; and using changing or break rooms.[ACTUALLY DOING STUDY ON PRACTICAL HUMAN BEHAVIOUR ACTIVITY]

Of course, these insights would have been for naught if ordinary people had ignored them. But Japanese heeded the government’s advice to stay home and to quarantine if showing any symptoms of the coronavirus, even though these admonitions carried no legal force. “Sometimes we are criticised for being an overly homogeneous society, but I think it played a positive role this time,” Mr Nishimura says. And already spick-and-span Japan became even more punctilious about hygiene. While Americans argued over whether face coverings were an assault on personal freedom, Japanese lined up outside Uniqlo for the release of its new line of masks. During the first ten weeks of flu season this autumn, Japan saw just 148 cases of common influenza, or less than 1% of the five-year average for the same period (17,000).

Better yet, although the population of Japan is disproportionally elderly, and therefore potentially more vulnerable to covid-19, it is also very healthy. Only 4.2% of Japanese adults are obese, a condition known to make the disease more lethal. That is the lowest rate in the oecd and a tenth of America’s. Japan also has a good health-care system, with universal coverage and lots of well-equipped hospitals. It even had lots of already trained contact-tracers, part of an established public-health network dating back to the 1930s.

These advantages clearly have their limits. The virus has spread rapidly in recent weeks, reaching record highs in terms both of daily cases and daily deaths. The government has had to dispatch medical personnel from the Self-Defence Forces to shore up hospitals in the worst-hit spots. But at the same time it has discouraged caution with a scheme that subsidises domestic tourism and meals out, in an effort to help the economy. Although this seems to have contributed to covid-19’s recent spread, the government has only curbed it rather than scrapping it. And cold weather is now pushing people into 3c spaces, as it has been across the northern hemisphere. But in Japan, at least, the recent growth in the number of cases has started from a dramatically lower base.

The US had so many failures – and its not a federal issue entirely – I hope we can learn from our failures and be better for the next time…..

Better reporting day – deaths closer to 2K in the US

For the US its CA again….

LA has gone parabolic now….

LA needs to be isolated – and best lessons from other counties need to be applied to LA – if the data is right things will likely only get worse before better…..whatever they are doing is not working and has not been working….

LA a true outlier

Though US data numerically is very poor – on a scale of subregions – the US is doing better on the fatality rate other than Asia but perhaps that’s because of all the testing to increase the denominator on the fatality rate – but North Europe has higher test per capita but still higher fatality rate. Asia is doing an amazing job keeping IFR low.