Covid19mathblog.com

The new year with an article of more testing hope. I still know many who wait days to get results. Here is a test that claims no nasal swab and 10 seconds with 99% accuracy – ok how long will it take to come to market if ever… https://www.euronews.com/2020/12/31/turkish-scientists-say-they-ve-developed-a-10-second-covid-19-test-that-is-99-accurate

“Scientists at a university research centre in Turkey claim they have developed an ultra-rapid coronavirus test with 99% accuracy that can return results within 10 seconds – all without needing to take a nasal swab.

The Diagnovir, developed by researchers at Bilkent University, is a diagnostic kit said to use nanotechnology to detect COVID-19 in a patient.

First, a swab is taken from the patient’s mouth before being mixed with a solution and added to a pathogen detection chip.

"It detects the presence of pathogens with high accuracy by receiving a fluorescent signal," said Ali Aytac Seyman, a researcher at the National Nanotechnology Research Centre (UNAM). He then pointed out that, unlike the widely-used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, which detects specific genetic material in a sample before amplifying it, the Diagnovir "focuses on the existence or non-existence of the virus using advanced optical methods."

This, he says, can give a patient a positive result within 5-10 seconds, but would take up to 20 seconds if the result is negative. A PCR test, meanwhile, can take much longer. ”

Not the best way to the end the year with 3419 deaths plus 227K confirmation in the US. Brazil 1074 deaths – both UK and Mexico above 900

Once again a good issue of the US is California

And to be more precise southern CA – in particular LA.

Not too much dispersion

There goes much hope for an LA improvement – Deaths 7 day moving avg just spiked

Covid19mathblog.com

Lets just leave all the bad news in 2020 – WHO potentially sees Covid-19 as endemic – perhaps the message should have been all along is to get healthy – https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/who-predicts-covid-19-will-become-endemic-but-some-experts-are-less-certain-1.5248847

“World Health Organization officials are predicting that the "destiny" of the COVID-19 virus is to become endemic, suggesting it could continue to spread through the population at a steady rate despite a global vaccination effort.”

“At a news conference Tuesday, several senior WHO officials warned that the development of COVID-19 vaccines is no guarantee that the virus will be eradicated, proposing that a more realistic goal would be to reduce the threat of transmission to more manageable levels. "It appears at present that the destiny of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is to become endemic," said David Heymann, the London-based chair of the WHO’s strategic and technical advisory group for infectious hazards.

"But its final destiny is not yet known. Fortunately, we have tools to save lives and these in combination with good public health … will permit us to learn to live with COVID-19."

According to the U.S.-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a disease is endemic when it is constantly or predictably prevalent within a population or region. For example, chickenpox is endemic in much of North America, spreading at a steady rate among young children.

Dr. Gerald Evans, chair of the infectious diseases division at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., agrees that the COVID-19 virus is on track to follow several other human coronaviruses that have become endemic, most often causing mild respiratory symptoms, such as the common cold.”

“Vaccinations campaigns have eradicated viruses in the past, he said, pointing to the decades-long effort to eliminate smallpox.

It’s difficult to say whether that’s possible for COVID-19, said Kindrachuk, given that the virus is believed to have jumped from animals to humans, and there’s always the potential for additional cross-species "spillover."”

Not too shocking…. https://au.news.yahoo.com/disturbing-new-theory-on-true-extent-of-chinas-covid-outbreak-213317313.html

“China’s coronavirus outbreak in the original epicentre of Wuhan may have been 10 times larger than authorities officially declared, a study has revealed.

The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention says widespread antibody testing in April after its first wave of infection had been suppressed indicate that close to 4.5 per cent of the city’s residents had Covid-19 antibodies.

With a population of roughly 11 million people, the study suggests about 500,000 people in Wuhan may have contracted the virus, substantially higher than the 50,354 cases the city has officially recorded.”

“China’s insistence on omitting asymptomatic cases from the official total has also complicated matters.” (FYI typically in the US common Flu asymptomatic cases are omitted – obviously in covid-19 that is not the case now)

Lets report something positive – https://time.com/5925495/oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-approval/

“The COVID-19 vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca wasn’t the first to be OK’d by regulators in the U.K.—health officials authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech jab nearly four weeks earlier. And it’s not the most effective—Stage 3 clinical trials suggest it prevents COVID-19 symptoms about 70% of the time vs. about 95% for the Pfizer vaccine and a similar one from Moderna (which is authorized in the U.S., but not the U.K.).”

“It’s especially big news for the developing world because it’s cheaper and easier to handle and store. Countries from India to Brazil to South Africa have made big bets on the shot from the celebrated British university and the U.K.-Swedish drugmaker. The U.K. was the first country to allow use of the vaccine, but India is expected to follow suit within days. Trials are ongoing in the U.S. and in multiple other countries.”

“The first thing to know about the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab is that it’s cheap. AstraZeneca has promised it will not make a profit on the vaccine during the pandemic. As a result, it costs $3 to $4 per dose around the world. Compare that to $25 to $37 a dose for the vaccine developed by Moderna and about $20 a dose for Pfizer’s jab, according to figures reported in Europe.”

“AstraZeneca and Oxford have worked with manufacturers across the world to produce millions of doses already, and the company says it hopes to make 3 billion more in 2021. With the current two-dose regimen, that’s enough to vaccine nearly 20% of the world’s population.

The Serum Institute of India, which was contracted to make COVID-19 vaccine for the developing world, has already manufactured up to 50 million doses and says it can make 100 million a month by March.

Pfizer, one of the world’s largest drug companies, has set a target of delivering 1.3 billion doses for 2021. Moderna, an upstart pharmaceutical company, says it hopes to produce between 500 million and 1 billion doses. However, rich countries have already claimed much of the expected supply of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine. “Those vaccines are already committed, so they are not available for most middle income and low income countries,” says Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, a Delhi-based epidemiologist and author of a book on India’s COVID-19 fight. The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, on the other hand, makes up the bulk of the 2 billion vaccine doses secured by COVAX, a consortium of 190 world governments formed to help ensure COVID-19 vaccines were distributed fairly around the world—including to developing countries.”

Then we have a weird news to report with Covid-19 – with the 5K page bill perhaps some of the junk has a positive spin – https://www.ign.com/articles/the-latest-covid-19-bill-includes-a-180-day-countdown-for-ufo-disclosures

“The $2.3 trillion COVID-19 relief and government funding bill signed by United States President Donald Trump includes a 180-day countdown for the Pentagon and spy agencies to reveal what they know about UFOs.”

Well I have to note what is going on in Harris County TX since I live there – https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/harris-county-covid-19-update-residents-urged-to-cancel-new-years-gatherings/285-44a079be-afe3-4a31-bbd0-8ad12ba7ec73

It would probably wiser to establishing the very important understanding of viral load and asymptomatic people – then discuss ventilation and other means to reduce viral load. Also probably should note where we are relative to historical context.

Covid hospital level still below summer peak – but clearly a surge is occurring.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations/

In terms of county stats Harris is faring very well compared to many other counties in country. Fatality rates are very low in Harris County for the last 3 month they rank 2274 out of 3004 in terms of fatality rate with counties with death – higher ranking better. Still the fatality rate is 0.8% – so the odds of dying IF you got covid in Harris county without any other filter age/health is less than 1%. Still IF you could do something to prevent this would/should you do it? Is a new year party worth this risk? You can have many more parties if you survive this one? There will be many who will see this as acceptable risk or more likely don’t really understand this and perhaps they are young and healthy so they really know its much less – they will party on! Govt. should be cognizant of this and promote reducing probability. Ventilate – don’t snuggle with people and have long conversations without all being confirmed negative – wear mask?

An awful reporting day to end 2020 – US death 3744 – over 1K death in Brazil, Mexico…..UK and Germany over 900

California leads the confirmation and death for the US as customary of late.

LA is ground zero – and something needs to be done there. Just in that 1 county accounts for 7% of total deaths – whereas population percentage of country 1%

Lets tour the world to end the year….

In Asia Covid is in decline in both deaths and confirmations….

In Europe so far latest month shows a decline in both death and confirmation – there is a recent uptick now driven by UK.

Similar pattern in S. America – a surge is occurring but still below previous peak.

Overall 2020 – covid deaths are now 1.8 Million with 19% in the US at 342K deaths.

Wishing for a Happy New Year – Good riddance to 2020!

Covid19mathblog.com

Where did all the common flu go? https://www.kusi.com/carl-demaio-calls-for-audit-of-covid-19-data-only-36-flu-cases-reported/

“San Diego County’s data for flu infections only shows 36 reported cases so far this year. Carl DeMaio tweeted out this shocking revelation, comparing it to this time in other years saying, “In a typical year we get over 17,073 on average!””

Flu data we have from CDC is sporadic by state but clearly show a much lower flu amount than history.

Flu data without history is showing hardly any flu in the US https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/nrevss/human-paraflu/natl-trend.html

Interesting so much news in San Diego – https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/er-nurse-tests-positive-for-covid-19-eight-days-after-receiving-vaccine

ER nurse getting positive in 8 days after first shot should not be a surprise data shows you need the second shot but doesn’t come till 21 days later….

“Health experts are weighing in after a local nurse tested positive for COVID-19 more than a week after receiving the Pfizer vaccine.”

“Six days later on Christmas Eve — after working a shift in the COVID-19 unit — Matthew, 45, became sick. He got the chills and later came down with muscle aches and fatigue.

The day after Christmas, he went to a drive-up hospital testing site and tested positive for COVID-19.””

“"That first dose we think gives you somewhere around 50%, and you need that second dose to get up to 95%," said Dr. Ramers.”

Last few days too good to be true….US deaths 3.7K deaths

California leads in deaths and confirmation by decent amounts.

LA is not where you want to be.

Only positive for LA confirmation not peaking – unlike deaths.

Covid19mathblog.com

As noted very early – melatonin was recommended as daily take along with Vitamin D C and Zinc – https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3000970#sec012

“We found that melatonin usage was associated with a 28% reduced likelihood of a positive laboratory test result for SARS-CoV-2 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.72, 95% CI 0.56–0.91; Fig 8A) after adjusting for age, sex, race, smoking history, and various disease comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, and COPD) using a propensity score (PS) matching method. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and ARBs are 2 common types of drugs for treatment of hypertension”

“We found that among individuals who received testing for SARS-CoV-2, melatonin usage was associated with a 28% and 52% reduced likelihood of a positive laboratory test result for SARS-CoV-2 in the all combined population and black Americans”

Not the best news for vaccine – but it was inevitable – there will be people where the probability of harm outweighs the probability issue from covid https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/293865

“A 75 year old man from Beit Shean died Monday morning from cardiac arrest, about 2 hours after receiving the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine.

The man received the vaccine at 8:30 in the morning, and waited for the customary time at the health clinic before he was released to his home feeling well.

Some time later, the man lost consciousness and was later confirmed dead from heart failure.”

“The Health Ministry said, "A 75-year-old man from the north of the country suffering from active heart disease and malignant disease, who has undergone a number of heart attacks, was vaccinated this morning against the coronavirus and died at home shortly after the procedure."”

US deaths under 2K – weather will be improved over the US over the next few weeks which will hopefully help keep the numbers low.

CA leads confirmation and deaths tied with NY

Deaths are very dispersed in NY compared to CA

LA county is still the hotspot for both deaths and confirmations.

Lets hope LA has reached their peak – data is now showing perhaps peak has been set.

Covid19mathblog.com

Interesting points from this article discussing whether vaccine would stop transmission – https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-vaccine-effective-prevent-spread-infection/

“One reason that this novel virus—officially called SARS-CoV-2—has spread so rampantly is that people can be contagious several days before they feel ill, and in some cases never develop symptoms. Such a high rate of asymptomatic spread is “just not all that common in other infections,” says Susanna Naggie, an associate professor of medicine in the Duke University School of Medicine who specializes in infectious diseases. “With flu there is asymptomatic disease, but not at the level we see with SARS-CoV-2.” This makes it particularly important to understand whether COVID-19 vaccines will prevent asymptomatic infections, she says.”

“Many vaccines—including those for hepatitis A and B, measles, chickenpox, and human papillomavirus—do prevent people both from becoming ill and from passing the pathogen to others. “Generally, we believe that if you have a vaccine that prevents disease, you’re likely preventing infections as well, but you can’t assume that that’s 100 percent [the case],” Naggie says.

Some pathogens can infect and reproduce in vaccinated people for short periods of time without making them sick, including the bacteria that cause meningitis and pertussis, or whooping cough. This is also a problem for vaccines under development for parasitic illnesses such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and hookworm infection, Bethony says. “The vaccine protects people against the most serious clinical manifestations of the disease but it doesn’t entirely stop infection,” Bethony says. “You still might have a person who is mildly infected, and they’re still able to spread the disease.””

“Several developers have reported early data hinting that their COVID-19 vaccines will reduce asymptomatic infections. During late-stage trials for the vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, some participants were given weekly COVID-19 tests. One group accidentally was given a low first dose of the vaccine followed by the intended full second dose. Asymptomatic infections were less common in this vaccinated group than they were among those who received a placebo. Researchers are still investigating why that low-dose group fared better than the full-dose group in that regard.

In Moderna’s clinical trials, researchers swabbed participants before they received each of their two doses of the vaccine. On December 15, the drugmaker reported that 38 volunteers who received the placebo tested positive without showing COVID-19 symptoms before their second dose, compared with only 14 from the group that received the vaccine.

“Presumably that means it also decreases the risk of transmission, although to prove that will take a lot more work,” Naggie says. “Maybe the vaccine completely prevents infection, or maybe it really shortens the period of infection and someone sheds for only a couple of days…these would all be very critical pieces to answer that.””

Only 1209 deaths in the US reported – but alas its Sunday

US and East Europe for the last 30 days is where most of the confirmation per capita is occuring (>1%)

CA leads in confirmation again – NY leads in death at 125

On a county view NY doesn’t even show up. LA continues to be a concern.

Death in NY very disperse

LA perhaps could be flatlining but hard to tell with the holiday reporting – even yet still a long ways down.

Covid19mathblog.com

What would you say for taking an FDA approved safe cheap and widely available drug to treat Covid-19 vs. experimental vaccine? This time not talking about HCQ but another repurpose drug that is also not directly connected to viral reduction but parasitic. It is strange but the data is the data – if a drug can reduce the capability of covid-19 to spread isn’t that A solution?

https://www.dhakatribune.com/health/coronavirus/2020/12/26/bangladeshi-researchers-find-ivermectin-effective-as-covid-19-preventive-drug

“In its latest issue, the European Journal of Medical and Health Sciences (EJMED) published a study carried out in Bangladesh, aimed at determining the effectiveness of Ivermectin when administered as a preventive drug for Covid-19.

EJMED, a peer-reviewed bimonthly international journal, carried the study findings on December 15, saying – “Ivermectin, an FDA-approved, safe, cheap and widely available drug, should be subjected to large-scale trials all over the world to ascertain its effectiveness as pre-exposure prophylaxis for Covid-19.”

Mohammed Tarek Alam of Bangladesh Medical College Hospital, who led a 13-strong team mentioned in the EJMED article, told Dhaka Tribune on Saturday that the team administered Ivermectin dosages four times, one each per month, to 58 volunteers in Dhaka during the May-August period this year and found that only four of them later suffered from mild Covid-19.

On the other hand, he added, as many as 44 volunteers out of 60 others, who chose not to take the tablet during the same period, later suffered from Covid-19.

Alam’s team conducted the observational study with 118 healthcare providers enrolling purposely. The subjects were divided into experimental and control groups; and the experimental group received an oral monthly dose of Ivermectin 12mg for 4 months.”

“About their study, they said: “This study has shed a ray of light in portraying Ivermectin’s astounding impact on preventing transmission and contraction of Covid-19 in the most vulnerable setting of a hospital among healthcare workers.

“Moreover, the experimental group did not complain of any side effects or breach of compliance regarding the dosing schedule. However, we acknowledge that this trial has limitations. This study was conducted on a small scale with a limited number of subjects being monitored over a short period of time.””

Here is an old study back in June showing the amazing reduction in virus counts in 48 hours – but nope best to spend all the resources for some magical vaccine – which I suspect will work but at what cost…. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011

“•

Ivermectin is an inhibitor of the COVID-19 causative virus (SARS-CoV-2) in vitro.

•

A single treatment able to effect ~5000-fold reduction in virus at 48 h in cell culture.

•

Ivermectin is FDA-approved for parasitic infections, and therefore has a potential for repurposing.

•

Ivermectin is widely available, due to its inclusion on the WHO model list of essential medicines.”

FYI – One can get Ivermectin prescribed – also used in heart guard for dogs. To take 12 mg as above will cost around $20.

A good weekend reporting day 1663 deaths in US

Hopefully we have peaked – worldwide looks like its coming down

In the US CA continues to lead in confirmation – this time Michigan leads in death followed by CA

LA is still the leading US county by a far amount

Unfortunately the LA down trend likely an error as the numbers just respiked.

Covid19mathblog.com

Well China has fared quite well with Covid – but now they have another virus outbreak which is a “common” virus – norovirus – https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/362121?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=related&utm_campaign=syndication

“The situation in China is worrying. An outbreak of norovirus was reported last week, affecting 50 children at a school in Zingong, Sichuan province. More cases have also been reported in the rest of the country, so they remain vigilant to contain further spread.

According to data from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) , about one in five cases of acute gastroenteritis are caused by norovirus.”

Napoleon Dynamite might have been on to something – https://scitechdaily.com/mini-antibodies-produced-by-a-llama-and-isolated-by-neuroscientists-could-prevent-covid-19-infection/

“National Institutes of Health researchers have isolated a set of promising, tiny antibodies, or “nanobodies,” against SARS-CoV-2 that were produced by a llama named Cormac.”

“A nanobody is a special type of antibody naturally produced by the immune systems of camelids, a group of animals that includes camels, llamas, and alpacas. On average, these proteins are about a tenth the weight of most human antibodies. This is because nanobodies isolated in the lab are essentially free-floating versions of the tips of the arms of heavy chain proteins, which form the backbone of a typical Y-shaped human IgG antibody. These tips play a critical role in the immune system’s defenses by recognizing proteins on viruses, bacteria, and other invaders, also known as antigens.

Because nanobodies are more stable, less expensive to produce, and easier to engineer than typical antibodies, a growing body of researchers, including Mr. Esparza and Dr. Brody, have been using them for medical research. For instance, a few years ago scientists showed that humanized nanobodies may be more effective at treating an autoimmune form of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, a rare blood disorder, than current therapies.”

How many will take the vaccine is an interesting question….if we look at the demographics we can probably note how many should and then discount from there….First of we know deaths are for sure a desired avoidance and most deaths are elderly….

Of course we also know long-term effects of Covid is something not worth risking which is amounting to around 10% of those that get Covid. Not awful odds but still some will see a risk/reward value to take vaccine even if death is removed from the equation.

Then lets be honest if you are in rural America and really don’t interact with people there is not much incentive to be the first to get the vaccine – risk/reward seemed skewed. So really we are talking about areas with decent population density and interaction. From a 330Million – you quickly drop to 200Million pool.

Then screening for comorbidity – which we know 90%+ of covid deaths have more than 1 comorbidity then we can screen more population out. Increase comorbidity is a function of age to….so if the average of 60% has more than 1 comorbidity that is skewed to the age group so that those under 45 under likely only around 20%.

So in total I suspect 204 Million *0.38 (45+)*.95 (comorbidity factor)+204 Million*0.62(45-)*.2=73.6+19=92.6 Million then subtract the 18 million that already have gotten covid – 74 million SHOULD take the vaccine over the next few months (22%)…then perhaps from that knowledge and IF no material impact from the vaccine occurs then I suspect at most a doubling of that figure….this puts around 148/330millon = 45%….if adverse effects occur I suspect will stay around 30-40% of the population as risk/reward is not likely shifted enough to cause an increase of vaccination. IF rules are made and freedom given for shot we can see this number much higher.

To put this in perspective flu vaccinations are not that high in the lower age groups. Even the 65+ is not as high as I assume in the calculation above….Obviously if it wasn’t for the knowledge of the 18 million that already had it the overall covid vaccination would be higher than regular flu but given the amount of testing and “knowledge” I think the amount of vaccinated will be near the regular flu levels with elder higher and youth lower.

It’s a wonderful reporting day with only 1223 deaths in US

CA leads the confirmation with IL leading death at 194

Interestingly LA county drops out of the top list – likely just not reporting

LA county likely a fake trend – be nice if it was true – big dip in confirmation and deaths on a 7 Day moving avg

Covid19mathblog.com

Merry Christmas!

Conspiracy theories – one of the largest HCQ facilities suffered a major explosion – https://twpundit.com/2020/12/23/taiwanese-hcq-manufacturing-plant-suffers-major-explosion/amp/?

“This week, a large explosion rocked yet another country as a pharmaceutical factory in northern Taiwan caught fire. The explosion crippled the SCI Pharmtech drug manufacturing facility in T’aoyuan City leaving two injured and causing a major fire on December 20. The plant is thought to be the second largest supplier of raw materials for hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), a 65-year-old drug that has been successfully used to treat Covid-19 but has caused a lot of controversy.”

Here is a recent study that hopefully will cause us more examination of our food system – they showed that Pigs particularly in the industrial setting – can get infected with SARS-CoV-2 infection – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/1/20-3399_article

“The results of this study contradict previous reports indicating swine are not susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection (4,36). Previous studies did not detect RNA in swabs or organ samples, and no seroconversion was measured. Infectious dose, viral isolate, age, and breed or colony of swine could affect study outcomes. Of note, we used a 10-fold higher viral dose for experimental infection than was used in previous studies. Moreover, we obtained animals from a high health status farm in Manitoba, rather than a specific pathogen–free colony, to determine the risk to farmed pigs in Canada. Altogether, these findings indicate that further investigations into the susceptibility of additional domestic livestock species should be conducted to assess their risk for infection and zoonoses. Finally, we emphasize that to date no SARS-CoV-2 cases among domestic livestock have been documented by natural infection; however, the results of this study support further investigations into the role that animals might play in the maintenance and spread of SARS-CoV-2.”

Unfortunately no Christmas Miracle – 2899 people reported covid deaths in US

California leads the way in both confirmation and deaths again….

Once again LA is out there compared to other counties in the US

The only good thing is perhaps LA found a peak in confirmation – but it’s a long ways down. Death seems to not have peaked.

Covid19mathblog.com

Another confirmation of what was known way earlier – viral load and ventilation are the key to reducing probability of getting infected – https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/coronavirus-misunderstandings-muge-cevik/

“It’s also becoming much clearer that the duration of contact is important. The longer you spend with an infected person, and the larger the gathering, the higher the risk.

If you’re in an indoor setting and if you’re doing various activities – singing or shouting or eating – you’re producing many more droplets. And if there’s not enough ventilation in the room, then those droplets could linger for longer.

There are some studies showing that just opening a window decreases the risk of infection. For example, [there was a study examining] a bus outbreak. And people sitting next to the window were not infected.”

“There’s a lot of focus on handwashing, which is also important. But we need to emphasise the fact that if you’re spending a lot of time in an indoor space, if the door or window is not open, the risk is still higher ­– even if you wash your hands.

Opening windows is just as useful because we need to have what’s called six ‘air changes’ over an hour. If you open a window in a small room just two or three inches, that could circulate the air for five people.

Another key factor is socio-economic circumstances. Household size is quite important. For example, there’s a study that came from France showing if you’re living in crowded housing, your risk of getting infected is three times more than someone who has more space.”

“At the moment, the majority of public messages don’t really make sense.

Not just in the UK. For instance, other countries have mandates to use masks outdoors. Maybe this could be useful if you’re in a crowded environment outdoors. But if you’re walking on an empty street with no social contact, you don’t necessarily need to put a mask on.

I think these messages are quite harmful because people don’t really understand where the real risk is.

Many people still fear going to a supermarket, whereas they sit in a restaurant for hours. The risk of transmission is very different.”

“In a supermarket, people often don’t spend a lot of time and there’s a huge space and often you don’t come very close to people. But in restaurants, you’re talking and eating in groups. And when you’re in a group, people tend to feel much more comfortable and they don’t keep the same measures with people they don’t know. That’s where we’re seeing the infection that’s happening.”

“Asymptomatic people seem to be around 20 per cent of all infections, and they are probably are one third as infectious compared to those who have or go on to develop symptoms.”

“One of the epidemiologists from Japan says that their approach is like looking at a forest and trying to find the clusters, not the trees. And he thinks that the Western world is getting distracted by the trees and got a little lost.”

Another 3.3K day in the US….deaths now over 325K

Still its CA that’s leading

LA county leads both confirmation and deaths….new comer Sedgwick KS 2nd place in deaths

Not too much dispersion in confirmation which is a good sign

Perhaps finally reaching peak for LA

Statistically US has not fared well the last 30 days in death compared to other country even on per capita – better than Italy and Poland only

In terms of confirmation – the Eastern Europe countries have not done a good job in slowing the spread with Lithuania leading the pack in terms of confirmation per capita.

Covid19mathblog.com

Numbers are just being thrown around – nothing like fear to create action…. https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/flawed-data-model-from-imperial-college-blame-for-latest-uk-lockdown/

“The source behind the claim that a new COVID-19 strain in the UK is 70% more transmissible, Dr. Erik Volz of Imperial College, admits that the model that produced that statistic is flawed and that it is “too early to tell” if the strain is more easily spread.”

“According to the BBC, Johnson’s assertion that the new variant “may be up to 70% more transmissible,” was based on the information discussed the day prior by the UK government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, or NERVTAG. Yet, as the BBC notes, this figure apparently comes from a single source, a 10 minute presentation delivered by Dr. Erik Volz of Imperial College given last Friday, the same day as the NERVTAG meeting.”

“Volz states that it’s “too early to tell” what N501Y’s transmissibility even is, stating that the 70% figure estimated by the model is based on “the current state of our knowledge,” which again is based on 1 month of data and its trends, trends that Volz also noted “don’t always pan out.” Volz then adds that the sparse datasets used to develop the transmissibility model for the new strain had some issues, stating that “the sample frequency is very noisy and overdispersed.” Later on in the presentation, Volz states that the data, provided by COG-UK, was both “non-random and very noisy sampling,” bringing into question not only the limited amount of data in terms of time, but also the quality of that data. After noting the glaring flaws in both models he is comparing, and that it is “too early to tell” much of anything about N501Y, Volz states that N501Y is “growing faster than A222V ever grew.””

“Volz’s presentation follows his release, alongside Imperial College professor and NERVTAG member Wendy Barclay, of the preliminary genomic characterization of the new strain. Volz’s presentation last Friday and this preliminary characterization, first published on December 19, were the main sources of data considered at the NERVTAG meeting. Notably, the study, written for the UK government and Wellcome Trust-funded COG-UK, has yet to be peer-reviewed and makes no mention of increased transmissibility or the 70% figure.”

“Volz’s colleague, Neil Ferguson, also played a key role in promoting the need for more restrictive lockdowns due to this new genetic variant. Ferguson was caught in May breaking the rules of previous lockdowns he had heavily promoted and arguably orchestrated in order to visit his lover. He has also previously attracted heavy criticism for a history of producing flawed models, particularly his wildly inaccurate predictions regarding the anticipated COVID-19 death toll that were largely used to justify earlier lockdowns in the UK. Despite his relatively recent fall from grace, Ferguson remains part of NERVTAG and was also part of last Friday’s meeting to discuss the new strain. That meeting was said to “have played a pivotal role in changing the Prime Minister’s mind – and led to Saturday’s announcement that Christmas was effectively canceled for millions.””

“The narrative surrounding the new strain and the affiliated lockdowns provides a clear example of how easily “expert opinion” can be manipulated to support a particular policy in the absence of any legitimate justification. The actual consensus of the NERVTAG meeting as well as the experts quoted by mainstream media outlets that dissent from those of the “vocal minority”, represented by Neil Ferguson and Wendy Barclay, have been largely ignored in UK mainstream media reports and the UK government itself, presumably because citing such inconvenient facts would delegitimize the resulting policy. Instead, those who dissent from the clearly questionable narrative are being quickly labeled “conspiracy theorists” by the UK government, a move that will likely result in an expansion of the UK’s already declared war against independent reporting and social media posts that dare to question and/or challenge the government’s favored narrative.”

The great question to ask about Covid-19 – how is it compared to the regular flu….Clearly more deaths but how much and where? So far one of the best studies come from France – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30527-0/fulltext

“89 530 patients with COVID-19 and 45 819 patients with influenza were hospitalised in France during the respective study periods. The median age of patients was 68 years (IQR 52–82) for COVID-19 and 71 years (34–84) for influenza. Patients with COVID-19 were more frequently obese or overweight, and more frequently had diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia than patients with influenza, whereas those with influenza more frequently had heart failure, chronic respiratory disease, cirrhosis, and deficiency anaemia. Patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 more frequently developed acute respiratory failure, pulmonary embolism, septic shock, or haemorrhagic stroke than patients with influenza, but less frequently developed myocardial infarction or atrial fibrillation. In-hospital mortality was higher in patients with COVID-19 than in patients with influenza (15 104 [16·9%] of 89 530 vs 2640 [5·8%] of 45 819), with a relative risk of death of 2·9 (95% CI 2·8–3·0) and an age-standardised mortality ratio of 2·82. Of the patients hospitalised, the proportion of paediatric patients (<18 years) was smaller for COVID-19 than for influenza (1227 [1·4%] vs 8942 [19·5%]), but a larger proportion of patients younger than 5 years needed intensive care support for COVID-19 than for influenza (14 [2·3%] of 613 vs 65 [0·9%] of 6973). In adolescents (11–17 years), the in-hospital mortality was ten-times higher for COVID-19 than for influenza (five [1·1% of 458 vs one [0·1%] of 804), and patients with COVID-19 were more frequently obese or overweight.”

Once again points to getting healthy but that message seems to be lost as we rather have vaccines or treatments vs. getting healthy – we had over 9 months to do this….A picture tells the story of the difference of influenza and covid…for those under 50 the influenza is the same or even WORSE than covid (unless under 5 not shown below)….Then after that well don’t get covid – mortality rate 3X+ 80+yr old. At the same time we need to be honest when assessing influenza in past and whether it is equivalently blamed for death as Covid-19 is now. Having Covid – is it the actual cause of death as perhaps influenza was noted in the past? Nonetheless burdening the <50 age group more than what one would do for a bad flu season seems unreasonable if most/all issue is above 50 particularly if one was healthy which is most peoples control.

US back up on deaths 3.4K – Germany almost 1K

California is the key state

LA county out there in terms of confirmation – Philadelphia tops the US county in Covid deaths….followed by Fresno and LA.

Dispersion is growing for death – but essentially most of the Thanksgiving gathering deaths should be accounted for soon.