Covid19mathblog.com

Big news is the new mutant strain in Covid identified in UK – supposedly more contagious – this article actually produces a percentage transmissible – https://au.news.yahoo.com/travellers-with-covid-mutant-strain-ravaging-uk-arrive-in-australia-062600021.html

“UK Health Minister Matt Hancock said a new strain of Covid-19 was 70 per cent more transmissible than the original.”

There goes Christmas for people in London:

“On Saturday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson tore up plans to allow three households to mix indoors for five days over the festive period and imposed new Tier 4 curbs – similar to a national lockdown in March – on London and southeast England.”

How enforceable will this be? Could we spend better resource and time to educate and help implement viral load reduction? I suspect when they say this strain is more transmissible they are still referring to viral load – in that to get infected by this strain the viral load can be lower than the original strain. So if you are in room with poor ventilation and the original strain took 10 min – now this one takes 3 minutes?

Ventilation can be checked with a cheap CO2 sensor. One can open windows – one can look into Air Free air unit – modify HVAC to add in an Energy Recovery Ventilator….There are many engineer solutions to reduce viral load. Material science adding a zinc/magnesium polymer can help deactivate the virus when added to filtration or mask (acteev). They have found sprays for nasal to block the spike connection for certain amount of time. All these SIMPLE things need to be promoted vs. spending so much trying to implement/enforce rules that are too restrictive to work. Deeming certain people less or more essential is very demoralizing. Also we do know who are likely to get infected with low viral load (elder with comorbidity) this section of society must be protected. Education and appreciation of peoples lives will go a long way vs. this massive shotgun approach with no precision.

Sunday reporting’s are the best…US only 1509 deaths under 200K confirmation!

US confirmation is a story of CA – southern CA – mainly LA. TX and NY tied for deaths.

However as a county – TX or NY don’t even show up in the top counts for deaths. Should issue being driven by Southern CA drive the entire country?

Not too much dispersion country wide

LA is just out there now….

What makes San Francisco so different than LA? It truly is a tale of two cities…San Fran is more dense – more public transport – yet multiple times less in death and confirmed per capita.

Covid19mathblog.com

Another study to conclude LED UV light can eliminate covid-19 in a matter of 30 seconds – https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/study-reveals-uv-led-lights-effectively-kill-the-human-coronavirus#Scientists-put-UV-LEDs-to-the-test

“Using the human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) as a substitute for SARS-CoV-2, the research team tested different UV LED bulbs emitting varying wavelengths — measured in nanometers (nm) — to see which would effectively inactivate the HCoV-OC43 virus.

After exposing viral suspensions placed in darkened tubes to UV LED light, the team found that wavelengths of 285 nm were highly effective at inactivating the virus and almost as effective as wavelengths of 265 nm, inactivating 99.9% of the coronavirus in under 30 seconds.”

LA is in trouble for sure – this was seen over a month ago in the data. Interestingly they have been one of the most restrictive counties but all that did not stop this. Whereas San Fran just north is doing so much better. A study of the difference is needed. The other thing to note from LA is their convoluted metrics they use – 0% ICU beds available – which doesn’t mean what it says….Now they have lost the Rose Bowl (going to be in Dallas TX now) and now must allow worshiping per the Supreme Court ruling – https://www.dailynews.com/2020/12/19/as-la-county-tops-600000-cases-officials-lift-ban-on-indoor-worship/

“As 13,756 new cases reported on Saturday, Dec. 19 pushed Los Angeles County’s total past the sad milestone of 600,000 since the pandemic began — public health officials announced they are modifying stay-home orders to allow for indoor and outdoor worship, in response to recent Supreme Court rulings.”

Article on convoluted metric – https://www.dailynews.com/2020/12/18/what-public-health-leaders-mean-by-0-icu-beds-available/

“As intensive care units fill with coronavirus patients like never before, the state’s calculation hinges on an ideal that no more than a third of a region’s intensive care patients have COVID-19. If more than 30% of ICU beds are in use by COVID-19 patients in a county, or the region as a whole, it’s reported available ICU capacity is reduced by half a percentage point for each percentage point over that threshold.

For example, 9.2% of Orange County’s staffed adult ICU beds were available by Friday, Dec. 18, according to the OC Health Care Agency. But because 57% of the county’s 628 active ICU beds were taken by coronavirus patients – well above the state’s 30% limit – Orange County’s capacity was downgraded to 0%.”

The only thing really makes sense is 9.2% of ICU beds available. The next question is this really low? Well if you dig enough you can find https://t.co/m52bH9oUop?amp=1

It looks like for flu related outbreak their baseline is around right here based on August 2009 study. They removed the original link of the report once this report started circulating – lucky the waybackmachine is available.

Collateral damage from Covid response – https://www.sfgate.com/news/amp/Overdose-deaths-far-outpace-COVID-19-deaths-in-15816356.php

“A record 621 people died of drug overdoses in San Francisco so far this year, a staggering number that far outpaces the 173 deaths from COVID-19 the city has seen thus far.”

US under 3K deaths

Over a billion test administered worldwide – 7.5% confirmation rate.

US stats are all about CA in terms of contagion spread

Deaths more scattered but confirmation is Southern CA

Southern CA are the top 3 counties in confirmation for the country!

Only going to get worse in LA

Covid19mathblog.com

FDA grants Moderna vaccine emergency authorization – https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-grants-emergency-authorization-moderna-s-covid-19-vaccine-n1251553?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

“The Food and Drug Administration authorized Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use Friday, adding a second vaccine to the country’s arsenal to fight the pandemic.

The United States is the first country to greenlight use of Moderna’s vaccine, which was developed in part with the National Institutes of Health.”

“Nearly 6 million doses of the Moderna vaccine have been earmarked for distribution and are expected to be shipped to 3,285 locations across the country, according to officials with Operation Warp Speed, which partially funded the Moderna work.

In a statement issued Friday, Moderna said that about 20 million doses of its vaccine will be delivered to the U.S. government by the end of this year. "The Company expects to have between 100 million and 125 million doses available globally in the first quarter of 2021, with 85-100 million of those available in the U.S.," the statement read.”

The coffee part in the article is interesting – but the takeaway are the stats this article notes – https://dailycoffeenews.com/2020/12/14/coffee-is-being-widely-used-as-a-covid-19-diagnostic-tool/

“The CDC now lists the loss of smell, known as anosmia, as one of the most common symptoms of COVID-19, with most recent studies indicating that about 50% to as much as 80% of people testing positive for the virus have suffered from anosmia.”

“most people suffering from COVID-19-induced anosmia do ultimately have their senses of taste and smell fully restored, according to preliminary research. Early on, scientists were worried that the disease may have been affecting the neurons that make olfactory connections, which would threaten long-term olfactory capabilities, although it appears more likely now that the disease only affects a layer of cells in the nose that can recover within about 14 days.”

““One of the things that can be done pretty easily, pretty objectively by someone at home would be to take some ground coffee and see how far away you can hold it and still smell it,” Tufts University School of Medicine Professor James Schwob recently told the University’s news service. “Or do the same with rubbing alcohol or your shampoo. If your nose is not congested and you have trouble recognizing those or other scents that are familiar to you, you might want to call your doctor about getting tested.””

UK looks to be getting worse and the new form is documented to be more contagious – https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-coronavirus-strain-50-percent-23191583

“The Covid strain is currently ripping through the southeast at ‘frighteningly transmissible’ speeds.

In a bid to stop the spread, Boris Johnson could hit parts of England with strict travel restrictions just days before Christmas, reports claim.

The Prime Minister is said to be considering a travel ban that could take effect as early as Saturday.

The measure could be rushed through after he was given worrying new evidence of the virulence of the new mutant strain of Covid-19, The Telegraph reported tonight.”

“latest figures from Sage showed the reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission across the UK is estimated to have risen to between 1.1 and 1.2 – which means the spread of the disease is accelerating.

With fears that the relaxing of the restrictions over Christmas could lead to a further upward spike, Mr Johnson on Friday refused to rule out the possibility of a third national lockdown for England in the new year.”

On a world basis per capita infection for the last 30 days per capita – shows Asia is spared but Europe and US looks pretty bad. Sweden numbers are high. Georgia the highest then Lithuania.

US death below 3K

Texas leads death CA leads confirmation – The data is becoming clear the testing data is not filtering for unique people. Many states now over 100% per capita for testing.

LA still leads both death and confirmation on county basis. Dallas is leading Texas county in death.

Not too disperse – as it was a few weeks before

Maricopa AZ is creeping back up and will become a big problem like LA. NY has fared quite well given the low temps.

Covid19mathblog.com

Another vaccine coming – https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/johnson-johnson-enrolls-about-45000-participants-for-late-stage-covid-19-vaccine

“Johnson & Johnson said on Thursday (Dec 17) that it has enrolled about 45,000 participants for the first late-stage trial of its Covid-19 single-dose vaccine candidate and that it expects interim data by late-January.”

“J&J also said it plans to submit an emergency use authorisation application to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in February if the data from the study is safe and effective.

The company had earlier this month announced cuts in enrollment for the vaccine trial from its original plan for 60,000, as higher rates of Covid-19 infections amid a worsening pandemic should generate the data it needs with fewer study subjects.”

“The Ensemble trial was paused for over a week in October after a patient developed an "unexplained illness" during the study.

The company later said it would resume the trial after an evaluation found no clear cause for the illness.

A separate late-stage clinical trial of an investigational Covid-19 vaccine candidate by Janssen to explore a two-dose regimen was ongoing, J&J said.”

China Vaccine update – https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/12/18/sinovac-vaccine-has-no-critical-side-effects-bpom-says.html

“A total of 1.2 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine produced by China’s Sinovac Biotech are currently stored in a warehouse of state-owned pharmaceutical company PT Bio Farma in Bandung, West Java, after being flown in to Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in Tangerang, Banten, on Dec. 6. Indonesia has firm orders of around 160 million vaccine doses, 140 million of which are manufactured by Sinovac Biotech. The remaining orders were given to Novavax, a United States firm, officials have said. The government is waiting for the Food and Drug Monitoring Agency (BPOM) to issue emergency use authorization (EUA) for Sinovac’s CoronaVax vaccine, which, unlike some other candidate vaccines, has not disclosed interim efficacy data.”

Another 3K+ death day for US. Germany saw over 700 deaths

California leading both confirmation and death. It would seem their very conservative approach is not helping contain covid.

Confirmation/death for CA mostly in Southern CA

LA policies did not work

LA will only get worse…

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news on the Russian front – https://apnews.com/article/moscow-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-russia-7184b687125e4aa508df230ad130efd1

“Russia faced international criticism for approving a vaccine that hasn’t completed advanced trials among tens of thousands of people, and experts both at home and abroad warned against its wider use until the studies are completed.

Despite those warnings, authorities started offering it to certain high-risk groups, such as front-line medical workers, within weeks of approval. Alexander Gintsburg, head of the Gamaleya Institute that developed the vaccine, said last week over 150,000 Russians have gotten it.”

“Russia approved its vaccine after it was tested on only a few dozen people, touting it as “the first in the world” to receive a go-ahead. Developers named it “Sputnik V,” a reference to the Soviet Union’s 1957 launch of the world’s first satellite during the Cold War.

More than just national pride is at stake. Russia has recorded more than 2.7 million cases of COVID-19, and over 49,000 deaths, and it wants to avoid another damaging lockdown of its economy.”

“Unlike in the U.K., where the first shots are going to the elderly, Sputnik V is going to those aged 18 to 60 who don’t have chronic illnesses and aren’t pregnant or breastfeeding.

Putin himself hasn’t gotten a Russian-made shot yet. The 68-year-old Russian leader said the shots in Russia are currently being recommended to people of a certain age, adding that “vaccines have not yet reached people like me.” “But I will definitely do it, as soon as it becomes possible,” Putin told the annual news conference Thursday.

Its developers have said study data suggests the vaccine was 91% effective, a conclusion based on 78 infections among nearly 23,000 participants. That’s far fewer cases than Western drugmakers have accumulated during final testing before analyzing their candidates’ efficacy, and important demographic and other details from the study have not been released.

Some experts say such efficacy rates inspire optimism, but public trust may be an issue.”

Perhaps some good news from Covid – https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/12/16/COVID-19-pandemic-has-college-kids-drinking-less-survey-suggests/9231608136596/

“COVID-19 pandemic has college kids drinking less, survey suggests”

A big death day for the US 3.6K

CA leading in both death and confirmation

LA county leading in death and confirmation – positive is Cook IL has dropped down quite a bit.

Looks like Cook IL has turned the corner – unfortunately LA is exponential issue

US has passed the peak in the fall on 7 day moving average death…now 2569

Covid19mathblog.com

How in the world does it take this long to know this about such a common drug – Aspirin – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.13.20248147v1

“Among COVID-19 positive Veterans, preexisting aspirin prescription was associated with a statistically and clinically significant decrease in overall mortality at 14-days (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.32-0.46) and at 30-days (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.33-0.45), cutting the odds of mortality by more than half. Findings demonstrated that pre-diagnosis aspirin prescription was strongly associated with decreased mortality rates for Veterans diagnosed with COVID-19.”

Really – so this long to come up with this – sounds like blood is on someones hands – https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2020-10/nov20-handbook-addendum.pdf

“RESOLVED, That our American Medical Association rescind its statement calling for physicians

5 to stop prescribing hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine until sufficient evidence becomes

6 available to conclusively illustrate that the harm associated with use outweighs benefit early in

7 the disease course. Implying that such treatment is inappropriate contradicts AMA Policy

8 H-120.988, “Patient Access to Treatments Prescribed by Their Physicians,” that addresses off

9 label prescriptions as appropriate in the judgement of the prescribing physician (Directive to

10 Take Action); and be it further”

“RESOLVED, That our AMA reassure the patients whose physicians are prescribing

19 hydroxychloroquine and combination therapies for their early-stage COVID-19 diagnosis by

20 issuing an updated statement clarifying our support for a physician’s ability to prescribe an FDA21 approved medication for off label use, if it is in her/his best clinical judgement, with specific

22 reference to the use of hydroxychloroquine and combination therapies for the treatment of the

23 earliest stage of COVID-19 (Directive to Take Action); and be it further

24

25 RESOLVED, That our AMA take the actions necessary to require local pharmacies to fill valid

26 prescriptions that are issued by physicians and consistent with AMA principles articulated in

27 AMA Policy H-120.988, “Patient Access to Treatments Prescribed by Their Physicians,”

28 including working with the American Pharmacists Association and American Society of Health”

Finally some more test – this requires no lab – https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/15/946692950/fda-authorizes-first-home-coronavirus-test-that-doesnt-require-a-prescription

“The new test is the first that people will be able to buy without a prescription at a local store and do entirely at home on their own. It takes about five minutes to collect the sample and produces results within 15 minutes.”

A slight caution on the vaccine – certainly if you don’t fall into the critical demographic probably best to wait a bit just to balance risk/reward – still very small percent and even smaller for longerterm impact – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/15/fda-staff-recommends-watching-for-bells-palsy-in-moderna-and-pfizer-vaccine-recipients.html

“The FDA said that there were four reported cases of Bell’s palsy among Moderna’s 30,000 trial participants, including three who got the vaccine.”

“Two of the cases of Bell’s palsy among Moderna’s vaccine group have since “resolved” while one was still ongoing at the time of the report, the FDA staff said. The vaccinated participants experienced the paralysis between 22 days and 32 days following inoculation, they said.”

Unfortunately back up to 3K deaths in US

CA leads in both confirmation and deaths

LA county driving most of CA issues

Something needs to be done in LA region if covid numbers to flat line

LA is astronomical

Covid19mathblog.com

The last 30 days is an amazing stat on testing and confirmation. US confirmed almost 5.5 Million in the last 30 days!

The death front for the last 30 days – US leads again at 54K deaths – the positive thing this puts the fatality rate around 1%.

On the US front its really a LA and IL story for the last 30 days in deaths and confirmation

US counties on a per capita basis makes LA not so bad – but Cook IL still up there. Salt Lake Utah leads the confirmation per capita for the last 30 days.

Certain counties if you get covid you hope not to be in – Leading is Wise VA – perhaps a lot of nursing homes?

A decent day relatively speaking – death only 1.3K in US

Reclassification of deaths in NY -130 …California lead confirmation. FL leads in death.

Cook IL leads death. LA leads confirmation.

LA still has not turned the corner

Covid19mathblog.com

Hand sanitizers – demand for alcohol based hand sanitizer likely to fall as most transfers are not from formite plus other options are now being proven to work – https://scitechdaily.com/alcohol-free-hand-sanitizer-just-as-effective-against-covid-19-virus-as-alcohol-based-versions/

“The BYU scientists who conducted the study suspected that the CDC’s preference for alcohol sanitizer stemmed from as-yet limited research on what really works to disinfect SARS-CoV-2. To explore other options, they treated samples of the novel coronavirus with benzalkonium chloride, which is commonly used in alcohol-free hand sanitizers, and several other quaternary ammonium compounds regularly found in disinfectants. In most of the test cases, the compounds wiped out at least 99.9% of the virus within 15 seconds.”

““Benzalkonium chloride can be used in much lower concentrations and does not cause the familiar ‘burn’ feeling you might know from using alcohol hand sanitizer. It can make life easier for people who have to sanitize hands a lot, like healthcare workers, and maybe even increase compliance with sanitizing guidelines,” he said.”

US deaths drop below 2K – but it was a Sunday report

California continues to be an outlier in terms of confirmation. New state leader in deaths – PA

LA leading in confirmation – 2nd in death behind Maricopa.

County map not showing much dispersion for confirmation – but for death quite broad.

Asia spike is due to Turkey data. Europe deaths worse than spring. US is still below spring peak.

Covid19mathblog.com

Follow the science mantra – seems to only work when science supports your position…. NY has banned indoor dining starting Monday – yet the data shows it’s not the main source of spread (1.4%) and likely will just drive the main source more – household gathering (74%). What is even worse about these policies once again they ASSUME all areas are the same! We know for a fact not all areas are the same – some places have accessible open windows – some places CAN or HAVE invested in fresh air HVAC system – some places can install Air Free or HEPA filters – etc…Government should implement guidelines and make business show customers the implemented guidelines from Ventilation stats via CO2 readings to equipment checklist and then let the consumer make their own risk/reward particularly when the stat is this low – if it was high it would point out to more serious enforcement. Seriously what is going on in this world. Have none of these politician never opened a business and put their entire savings into something – so they can just shut business down without any thought of collateral damage?

https://ny.eater.com/2020/12/11/22169841/restaurants-and-bars-coronavirus-spread-data-new-york

Then we get these papers which suggest restaurants are superspreader https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100052172&utm_content=deeplink

– but I don’t know why they don’t spend the money and time to differentiate restaurants that are designed well vs. restaurants that are not. Banning all restaurants as they are all the same seems like a lack of science. In addition this paper is really BS in terms of highlighting issue and the interpretation from media is AWFUL – https://www.livescience.com/amp/covid-19-superspreading-venues-restaurants.htm – The heading of the article is so misleading! They should have said in terms of Points of Interest locations restaurants and gyms are superspreaders – but this is EXCLUDING POI of home and social gathering. Imagine if they actually included the homes as POI they would have to tell the public they track them in their homes – but they were very careful to avoid showing that in this study. By shear volume of POI of course restaurants would top the list. Still its garbage interpretation of data….the data is not useless but the context being used is BS. They should delve into which venues POI are better and why – then take that knowledge and make guidelines and facilities strive to those best practices.

Back to below 3K death in US

Leading death MI and CA out there in terms of confirmation by 3X to second place

Banning wrong things would produce a boomerang of results which is what we are seeing in LA. LA leading confirmations by multiples vs all counties in US. Also leading death.

It is an interesting geographical dispersion SW and NE

LA and Cook still not turning the corner on death stats

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news….

FDA issue emergency use authorization of Pfizer vaccine – https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19

“The FDA has determined that Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine has met the statutory criteria for issuance of an EUA. The totality of the available data provides clear evidence that Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine may be effective in preventing COVID-19. The data also support that the known and potential benefits outweigh the known and potential risks, supporting the vaccine’s use in millions of people 16 years of age and older, including healthy individuals. In making this determination, the FDA can assure the public and medical community that it has conducted a thorough evaluation of the available safety, effectiveness and manufacturing quality information.”

A good summary of all the Chinese vaccines and where they are – certainly more volume of testing than Pfizer – https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/chinas-covid-vaccines-how-do-they-work/

“Sinovac Life Sciences is a private Chinese company that focuses on research, development and manufacturing of human and animal vaccines. It has developed and commercialized six vaccines for human use, and one for animals.

The company’s Covid-19 vaccine, called CoronaVac, is an inactivated vaccine. It has recently been shipped to Indonesia.

It’s manufactured by growing the Covid-19 virus in laboratories and treating it with a chemical that inactivates it. The chemical locks the virus in a state where it’s unable to replicate, but its structure is maintained, allowing the body to recognize it as foreign and mount an immune response….Having shown a substantial immune response and minimal safety concerns (mostly mild pain at the injection site) in phase 1 and 2 clinical trials, CoronaVac is now in phase 3 clinical trials. The phase 3 trials have recruited tens of thousands of participants to test vaccine efficacy and safety, and are taking place in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey.”

“Sinopharm is a state-owned Chinese company that researches, develops and distributes vaccines and other pharmaceuticals. It has produced a number of drugs that’ve been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, and by EU authorities.

The two Covid-19 vaccines being developed by Sinopharm are both inactivated vaccines. Both follow a similar inactivation process as the Sinovac vaccine, and also use adjuvants to stimulate an immune response.

Both have undergone phase 1 and 2 clinical trials with encouraging results. They produced an effective immune response in participants and reported adverse reactions, including pain at the injection site and fever, were mild and quickly resolved. Certain doses generated SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies in all phase 1 and 2 trial participants. Both vaccines are currently in phase 3 trials. Again, despite incomplete clinical trials, both are reported to have been distributed for use by Chinese government officials and health-care workers.

What’s more, the United Arab Emirates, a site of ongoing phase 3 trials, granted emergency use for one of Sinopharm’s vaccines in September, following testing in 31,000 participants.”

"CanSino Biologics This Chinese company has developed a Covid-19 vaccine based on an adenovirus in partnership with the Chinese Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The adenovirus is unable to cause disease itself, but is used to deliver a coronavirus protein.

Phase 2 clinical trials reported the vaccine to be safe and induce significant immune responses in most participants.

This vaccine was also approved for limited use by the Chinese military in June, around the time of the conclusion of phase 2 trials.

Phase 3 clinical trials, which began in August, are ongoing in countries including Saudi Arabia.”

Bad news on vaccine front – delayed until late 2021 – https://www.axios.com/glaxosmithkline-sanofi-covid-vaccine-delayed-pfizer-7ee72f10-5315-4454-8baf-0f2960205482.html

“GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi announced on Friday that their coronavirus vaccine program would be delayed until late 2021 in order to improve immune response in older adults.

Why it matters: It’s a blow to hopes that the U.S. will have an array of vaccines available for distribution by early 2021. The Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed paid the companies $2.1 billion over the summer to cover some manufacturing costs and purchase an initial batch of 100 million doses.

The state of play: GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi said they plan to launch another study in February that will include comparing its vaccines to an authorized one. If the results are promising, Phase 3 trials — which were scheduled to begin next month — could start in the second quarter of next year, moving the vaccine’s possible availability to the third or fourth quarter.”

It is interesting to ponder how much the government can/should impact society. Banning business and curfews – it would seem perhaps the power should be used to produce positive outcomes. One the silver lining in covid was perhaps we could get healthy as a society but for some reason that message has gotten lost and we can just take a vaccine or expect the medical industry to save you with innovative drug so you can maintain your existing lifestyle. Here is an interesting piece of suggesting to make America more physically active – https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/what-if-all-americans-exercised-regularly

“Fewer than one in four Americans get enough physical exercise, defined as at least 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous activity each week, coupled with two bouts of muscle-strengthening. While this statistic may come across as societal scolding – easily ignored – it has huge ramifications for Americans’ lives and the economy.”

“Regular exercise prevents and even reverses type II diabetes, drastically reduces the chances of heart attack and stroke, lowers the odds of developing cancer and dementia, and boosts the immune system, shortening the duration of syndromes like the common cold, influenza, and COVID-19 as well as reducing their severity. There’s more: exercise improves your sex life, prevents or ameliorates depression, helps you sleep, alleviates chronic pain, and makes you less susceptible to all sorts of injuries.

Unfortunately, hundreds of millions of Americans are unable or unwilling to take advantage of these real and tangible advantages. This has consequences. According to a 2018 study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control, 8.3% of yearly deaths in nondisabled adults 25 or older can be attributed to inadequate physical activity. MBA students at the University of North Carolina (UNC) translated these preventable deaths into terms of life expectancy. They estimated that Americans’ lack of exercise cost men 6.2 years of life and women 5.6 years.

Regular physical activity gives you longer to live, and as an added bonus, puts more money in your pocket. In 2016, research published in the Journal of the American Heart Association found that regular exercisers spent between $500 and $2,500 less on medical bills each year. These savings add up. The UNC team found that if all Americans were diligent about exercise, there would be a nationwide annual cost reduction of $143 Billion just from controlling diabetes and lowering blood pressure.”

No doubt Covid is real and impactive – but it is not far and away the worse category of death – yet – it did just pass heart disease – next is Cancer. However a healthy lifestyle will reduce the top 3 significantly (including covid) – should we focus on that vs closing business and gatherings?

Interesting Data update – Turkey magically added 824K confirmed case – not sure one could even test that much in a day! US deaths back above 3K

We know have a new number 1 death state in US – Iowa with 469

Linn Iowa is driving Iowa in deaths – however there has been significant data issues in that county of recent – https://kwwl.com/2020/12/04/235-linn-county-area-residents-mistakenly-told-they-were-covid-19-positive-after-first-getting-negative-results/

So I am suspect of this data point.

The typical LA and Cook and Maricopa makes sense

Still large parts of the country show minimal issues