Covid19mathblog.com

Documented that Children spread covid 50% less than adults – IN FACT All children transmission came from adults! – https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/we-now-know-how-much-children-spread-coronavirus/

“National Geographic was given exclusive access to the results from an Icelandic study that provides definitive evidence of how much children contribute to coronavirus spread. Researchers with the nation’s Directorate of Health and deCODE genetics, a human-genomic company in Reykjavik, monitored every adult and child in the country who was quarantined after potentially being exposed this spring, using contact tracing and genetic sequencing to trace links between various outbreak clusters. This 40,000-person study found that children under 15 were about half as likely as adults to be infected, and only half as likely as adults to transmit the virus to others. Almost all the coronavirus transmissions to children came from adults.

“They can and do get infected and transmit to others, but they do both less frequently than adults,” says Kári Stefánsson, the chief executive of deCODE.”

Ventilation once again is key. And scary to think strong recirculating flow can create spread in far distances as noted in this study – https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415

“Results

A total of 3 cases were identified in this outbreak, and maximum air flow velocity of 1.2 m/s was measured between the infector and infectee in a restaurant equipped with ceiling-type air conditioners. The index case was infected at a 6.5 m away from the infector and 5 minutes exposure without any direct or indirect contact.

Conclusion

Droplet transmission can occur at a distance greater than 2 m if there is direct air flow from an infected person. Therefore, updated guidelines involving prevention, contact tracing, and quarantine for COVID-19 are required for control of this highly contagious disease.”

Once again another confirmation Covid began late 2019

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3113444/coronavirus-italian-scientists-find-perfect-match-wuhan-strain

“Scientists in Italy have identified a sample of the novel coronavirus collected from a young boy late last year that they say is genetically identical to the earliest strain isolated in the Chinese city of Wuhan almost a year ago.

The sample was collected on December 5, 2019 in Milan from a boy who was first thought to have contracted measles, according to the researchers from the University of Milan.

It was a “100 per cent match” of a genome segment of the first Sars-CoV-2 viral strain collected from a seafood market worker in Wuhan on December 26, they said.

“These findings, in agreement with other evidence of early Covid-19 spread in Europe, advance the beginning of the outbreak to late autumn 2019,” said the team led by Professor Elisabetta Tanzi.”

US numbers came off slightly – at least below 3K death

Looks like there is a death revision for Washington. CA still leading confirmation. TX leading death

Confirmation and death are lead by LA CA followed by Cook IL – the same 2 that have been showing a problem for over a month

Need to fix hot spots before trying to fix the entire US

Since Oct both LA and Cook was indicated as an issue – yet here we are LA is astronomical in its confirmation – Cook is kind of holding flat but deaths in both are rising.

Covid19mathblog.com

Probably the most disappointing covid outcome looking back (beyond the deaths and confirmation) – was all the press on testing and new test that everyone was making and yet here we are still many have to wait days for results. And now we have an OTC test – https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/09/health/fda-over-counter-covid-test/index.html

“The US Food and Drug Administration has granted an emergency use authorization for the first non-prescription, over-the-counter Covid-19 test kit for at-home use.

The LabCorp Pixel COVID-19 Test Home Collection Kit allows anyone 18 and older to buy the kit and collect nasal swab samples at home, the FDA said in a news release Wednesday. The samples are then sent to a LabCorp facility for testing.

Positive or invalid results are delivered back to the consumer by phone or through a healthcare provider. Users will be notified by email or through an online portal if results are negative.”

“After buying the test, users register the kit on the website and follow the included instructions.

"Test results are securely delivered to the consumer via the Pixel by LabCorp portal," LabCorp said. "A healthcare provider will counsel consumers who test positive to assist with healthcare treatment and actions."”

From site:

“Due to the surge in COVID-19 cases, kits are currently reserved for individuals who are experiencing symptoms, have been exposed to someone with COVID-19, or who have been recommended for testing by a healthcare provider, public health department, or contact investigator.

We’ll send you an at-home collection kit to collect your nasal swab sample and ship it back to our lab. Our lab will test your sample for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease (also called COVID-19), a respiratory illness.

You must be 18 or older to take this test. The average time to deliver results is currently 1-2 days from when your sample is received at the lab. Our labs process samples seven days a week. Check with your local FedEx for pick up and drop off schedules.

Please note this test does not detect antibodies or immunity; it is designed to determine active infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. For more information on antibody testing visit LabCorp.com.”

Really several days….where are these test that were touted in the beginning…5 min test etc….

Vaccinated – still infectious to other – https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/361327?

“Experts consulted by The New York Times , give indications about the possibility that people who receive the doses can have the virus without developing symptoms, transmitting it to others silently.

The new vaccines against Covid-19 Moderna and Pfizer contain a high effectiveness, the first is 94.1% and the second with 95%, for the prevention of this disease. However, there is still ignorance about the solution to avoid the spread of the virus, because in both tests only how many people who were vaccinated became ill with coronavirus were registered , therefore, the possibility that some were have been infected without developing symptoms, which could cause the virus to spread silently, especially if you don’t wear a mask and keep in close contact with other people.

In the event that immunized people can spread the virus inadvertently, people who have not yet been vaccinated are at risk, especially if the safe distance and the use of a mask are not respected.”

Don’t miss the second dose of the vaccine as effectiveness drops by nearly half! – https://bgr.com/2020/12/09/coronavirus-vaccine-fda-pfizer-two-doses-vs-one/

“Commenting on the matter, Pfizer executive Dr. William C. Gruber told The New York Times that the efficacy of the first dose is probably about 52% compared to 95% after the second dose.”

Yesterday was a very somber day in US statistics – over 3.1K deaths. Confirmations are very high still over 220K

The US distribution of death was very dispersed with TX leading at 285 CA leads confirmation.

There was so much death dispersion I changed the chart from 10+ death to 20+ death. Once again even though TX leads death its not really a hotspot – TX doesn’t even show up in top 5 county. You have Cook , LA, Providence, Maricopa,El Paso Co, San Diego!

Amazing dispersion of death….

The deaths have not change their demographics – it continues to point to those older – even though we know the infections have been very dispersed by this point.

We have surpassed peaked deaths from Spring but it has not necessarily gone exponential as seen in the past flu epidemics. We are sitting at 2% fatality. We could see a max total of 600K deaths IF trend continue with confirmation rate and fatality rate. A more realistic number is likely 400K – currently we are 289K. The optimistic bottom end number is to assume some double dipping in confirmations therefore those rates are slightly exaggerated – plus age demographic should start flattening out at some level – 360K. Still this would average ~1K deaths per day for the winter.

CA, PA, MI,IL leading this winter hump.

Asia its all about India, Iran, and Turkey

Unlike the US the winter regions are the same as in the spring for Europe – Italy, France plus the Eastern Europe now being impacted creating this larger and longer hump.

Central/S. America doesn’t have a second hump yet on deaths – but they really never came off either like in US and Europe

Total worldwide deaths per day is almost double the peak in spring.

Covid19mathblog.com

It is all about the vaccine now.

FDA reports intense symptoms after second shot for the Pfizer vaccine – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccine-side-effects-trials.html

"The Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine is both safe and effective, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In a report released Tuesday morning, the FDA indicated that it could greenlight the country’s first Covid-19 inoculation within days.

If Pfizer’s shot is granted an emergency use authorization, or EUA, the immunizations — which are administered in two doses about three weeks apart — could start as soon as next week.”

“One Pfizer trial participant told CNBC that after the second shot, he woke up with chills, shaking so hard he cracked a tooth. “It hurt to even just lay in my bed sheet,” he said.

Others experienced headaches and fatigue.

The FDA said that while side effects of the Pfizer vaccine are common, there are “no specific safety concerns identified that would preclude issuance of an EUA.”

“Moderna said in August it is charging between $32 and $37 per dose for its vaccine and would perhaps offer a discount if it is bought in bulk. Pfizer’s, on the other hand, is more affordable. It is reportedly $20 per dose.”

Oxford vaccine makes it to the final stage report – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext

“This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort)”

“Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0–75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4–97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8–80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3–4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation.”

This is probably not the best way to promote the vaccine of choice – Russia notes to abstain from alcohol for 2 months – https://nypost.com/2020/12/09/no-drinking-for-two-months-after-covid-19-vaccine-russia-says/

“Russian officials are warning citizens to avoid alcohol for two months after receiving the country’s COVID-19 vaccine — tough-to-swallow news for one of the world’s heaviest drinking countries.

The warning came from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova, who said in an interview that Russians will have to observe extra precautions during the 42 days it takes for the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine to become effective.

“[Russians] will have to refrain from visiting crowded places, wear face masks, use sanitizers, minimize contacts and refrain from drinking alcohol or taking immunosuppressant drugs,” Golikova told TASS News Agency.”

Its not all about covid vaccine – a universal flu vaccine coming – phase 1 done – https://newatlas.com/medical/phase1-human-trial-universal-flu-vaccine-promising-results/

“Promisingly, the study found the HA stalk antibodies elicited by the vaccine persisted for at least 18 months after the trial had been completed. This suggests the vaccine offers the potential for long-lasting protection against all strains of influenza, removing the need for annual vaccinations.”

“The researchers are cautious to stress this is only a Phase 1 human trial, and it is not designed to evaluate whether the vaccine protects against disease or infection. Instead, these preliminary studies focus on safety and initial immune response. But from this perspective the data so far is significantly promising, offering up all the signs to support further development of a universal influenza vaccine.”

Politicians need to come to earth along with their scientific advisors. Rules that cannot be enforced are better off not being made. The blanket statements for closure doesn’t make sense. Why cant a store be designed to do more ventilation than others? IF anything they should have standards such as volume of air exchange or CO2 readings to deem a place more or less safe. How do a localized contagion impact counties who are removed from the issue? https://reason.com/2020/12/08/southern-california-sheriffs-rebel-over-gavin-newsoms-new-stay-at-home-order/

“Over the past few days, the sheriffs of Los Angeles, Orange, and Riverside Counties have said that their deputies will not be issuing tickets or making arrests of people violating the governor’s latest coronavirus restrictions, which went into effect in southern California on Sunday.

"I want to stay away from businesses that are trying to comply the best they can," said Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva to FOX11’s Bill Melugin. "They bent over backwards to modify their entire operation to conform to these current health orders, and then they have the rug yanked out from under them, that’s a disservice. I don’t want to make their lives any more miserable."

Villanueva has said that enforcing the business closures and other restrictions in the governor’s new order, which was announced last Thursday, is the job of Los Angeles County’s Health Department. L.A. Sheriff’s deputies will focus their efforts on "super spreader" events, he said.”

US continues to show large confirmations along with deaths. Fatality rate looks to be converging around 2%.

Last 30 days have been astounding spike in confirmation worldwide with US confirmation leading the world by a significant amount. Eastern Europe countries are not looking too good either.

The last 30 days US deaths over 45K. Italy, Poland, France, UK, and Spain is still doing worse than US on a per capita basis.

Ohio leads in confirmation with Michigan leading in deaths. (colder states – just snowed there last week).

LA leads in both death and confirmation. Philadelphia second place in deaths

Still when we just look at the last 30 days the issue is quite focus to Cook IL, LA CA and Maricopa AZ and a border county El Paso TX.

LA confirmation is out there and for sure something needs to be done. However this shouldn’t be a state or federal issue. The local officials who “should” know how and why this is spreading should implement things that would curtail or assist in reducing this explosion of confirmation. San Francisco county is a mere fraction of LA – they need to learn from San Fran and implement into LA.

Covid19mathblog.com

UK and Russia are rolling out vaccine as the US sits through it bureaucracy …. https://apnews.com/article/public-health-england-immunizations-coronavirus-pandemic-london-719288c35d8ef8815b56b1c9c5fff24c

“A retired British shop clerk received the first shot in the country’s COVID-19 vaccination program Tuesday, signaling the start of a global immunization effort intended to offer a route out of a pandemic that has killed 1.5 million.

Margaret Keenan, who turns 91 next week, got the shot at 6:31 a.m. on what public health officials have dubbed “V-Day.” She was first in line at University Hospital Coventry, one of several hospitals around the country that are handling the initial phase of the United Kingdom’s program. As luck would have it, the second injection went to a man named William Shakespeare, an 81-year-old who hails from Warwickshire, the county where the bard was born.”

“Britain has received 800,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine, enough to vaccinate 400,000 people. The first shots will go to people over 80 who are either hospitalized or already have outpatient appointments scheduled, along with nursing home workers and vaccination staff. Others will have to wait their turn.”

“Health officials have asked the public to be patient because only those who are most at risk from the virus will be vaccinated in the early stages. Medical staff will contact people to arrange appointments, and most will have to wait until next year before there is enough vaccine to expand the program.”

“On Saturday, Russia began vaccinating thousands of doctors, teachers and others at dozens of centers in Moscow with its Sputnik V vaccine. But that is being viewed differently because Russia authorized use of the shot last summer after it was tested in only a few dozen people.”

“The vaccination program will be expanded as the supply increases, with the vaccine offered roughly on the basis of age groups, starting with the oldest people. Britain plans to offer COVID-19 vaccines to everyone over the age of 50, as well as younger adults with health conditions that put them at greater risk from the virus.

In England, the vaccine will be delivered at 50 hospital hubs in the first wave of the program, with more hospitals expected to offer it as the rollout ramps up. Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are making their own plans under the U.K.’s system of devolved administration.”

“Logistical issues are slowing the distribution of the Pfizer vaccine because it has to be stored at minus-70 degrees Celsius (minus-94 degrees Fahrenheit). Authorities also are focusing on large-scale distribution points because each package of vaccine contains 975 doses and they don’t want any to be wasted.

The U.K. has agreed to buy more than 350 million doses of vaccine from seven different producers. Governments around the world are making agreements with multiple developers to ensure they lock in delivery of the products that are ultimately approved for widespread use.”

Covid19mathblog.com

BCG studied by Russian scientist and have concluded that there is a positive link. Once again seems like a simple no brainer option given vast experience and knowledge on BCG – at the least you get vaccinated from TB https://theprint.in/health/now-russian-scientists-find-link-between-bcg-vaccine-covid-19-immunity/558384/

“Scientists from St. Petersburg University, Russia, have analysed data detailing Covid-19 spread in several countries to find that “new coronavirus infection occurs more slowly where there is a large percentage of people vaccinated against tuberculosis with the BCG vaccine”.

The effect of the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine on immunity against Covid-19 is currently being investigated across the world, with some earlier studies deriving similar conclusions as well. India is one of the countries where BCG, which guards against tuberculosis, is part of the immunisation programme for children.”

“The researchers from St. Petersburg University added that they “have analysed about 100 academic papers and statistics” on the spread of Covid in different countries to arrive at their conclusion. Their study has been published in the Russian peer-reviewed journal Juvenis scientia.”

Antiviral drug shown to stop covid-19 spread within 24 hours in ferrets – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00835-2

“Therapeutic treatment of infected animals with MK-4482/EIDD-2801 twice a day significantly reduced the SARS-CoV-2 load in the upper respiratory tract and completely suppressed spread to untreated contact animals. This study identified oral MK-4482/EIDD-2801 as a promising antiviral countermeasure to break SARS-CoV-2 community transmission chains.”

Antibody test that goes beyond yes and no and actually MEASURES the level of antibodies and tells you – https://www.startribune.com/this-test-can-read-your-level-of-covid-antibodies/573312841/

“A person’s COVID titer (pronounced TIGHT-er) is a measure of the concentration of virus-neutralizing antibodies in their blood. A high-enough titer of the antiviral proteins provides immunity to COVID-19, though researchers are still working to nail down exactly when protection ends.

Taking a vaccine is one way to build up a protective titer, and recovering from COVID-19 is another. Some patients are getting infusions of lab-grown or donated antibodies to increase their titers.

“Based on our knowledge of other viruses, the higher the titer, the more likely you are to have immunity,” said Marc Jenkins, director of the Center for Immunology at the University of Minnesota. “But where the cutoff is [for loss of immunity] is still uncertain.”

Now a $300 blood test made by Imanis Life Sciences in Rochester is offering consumers a quantitative measurement of their neutralizing antibody titers. Multiple such tests could track the decline of antibodies over time.

Unlike most other antibody tests authorized in the United States, Imanis’ Immuno-Cov V2.0 test returns a number that represents the concentration of virus-killing antibodies in the sample, instead of just a “yes” or “no” on whether antibodies were detected.”

“Internal data from Imanis shows that two of 14 people who got their titers measured twice had no detectable neutralizing antibodies after six months, and two more had titers that hovered just above the test’s limit of detection.

Such insights could inform decisions about whether someone needs a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot, especially if they work in a field such as health care, Russell said.

An earlier version of the neutralizing antibody test became available through Mayo Clinic in June.”

“Version 2.0, which became available to the public via physician order online late last month, is run directly by Imanis. It’s a refined and revalidated version of the original, and Imanis made enough testing medium to run 5 million of the second-generation tests at its own lab.

Antibody testing cannot diagnose an active case of COVID-19; that can be done only by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology. In Minnesota, another form of testing that looks for viral molecules called “antigens” can provide a probable diagnosis.”

“The Imanis test is designed to emit light inside a laboratory machine when a sample that contains neutralizing antibodies is exposed to an innocuous virus that has been genetically engineered to have coronavirus spikes. Non-neutralizing antibodies don’t trigger the glow.

Imanis senior scientist Rianna Vandergaast said it’s likely that no single magic titer applies to everyone. But eventually people will be able to see where they fall within broad categories such as low, moderate or high titers. And they’ll be able to track change over time.”

Database migration has caused some issues on updates….

Covid19mathblog.com

Well they say the govt is slow….but you would think in times of urgency things would just get done. This is a very somber report on the FDA – almost sounds that politics got involved – if so let the Karma come….- https://thedispatch.com/p/fda-career-staff-are-delaying-the

“Pfizer submitted data detailing the safety and effectiveness of its vaccine on Nov. 22. But rather than immediately convening experts, the FDA scheduled a review meeting on Dec. 10, almost three weeks later. As Pfizer’s application sits on the shelf at the FDA awaiting authorization, about 27,000 Americans will have died. So what is the FDA doing for three weeks?

As a Johns Hopkins scientist who has conducted more than 100 clinical studies and reviewed thousands more from the scientific community at large, I can assure you that the agency’s review can be done within 24 to 48 hours without cutting any corners. They just need to work harder.

Contrary to popular belief, the FDA process is not hands-on—it does not interview vaccine trial patients or look under a microscope at the immune cells. It’s doing a statistical analysis and looking at data. For the vaccine trial, the data set is small and straightforward. If my research team, normally tasked with analyzing data on millions of patients, was asked to review the smaller Pfizer vaccine study of 43,000 patients, it would take about one hour.”

“Let me be clear: The agency should not cut any corners in its review process, just cut out the sitting-around time. FDA insiders say the agency and its approximately 17,000 employees were dark for the four-day Thanksgiving holiday, including those working on the vaccine approval. It’s time the FDA adopts a sense of urgency. We’ve had Operation Warp Speed in developing vaccines but Operation Turtle Speed in reviewing the results.

The European Medications Agency uses rolling reviews, evaluating data as it becomes available for the sake of efficiency. The FDA does not conduct real-time reviews. This is a good time to start.

Pfizer’s vaccine is now approved for use in the U.K. Americans have a right to ask why an American vaccine has been approved by the British but not by Americans. Some sympathetic to the FDA career staff have suggested that the U.K. was careless in approving the vaccine quickly, but the real story is how the American government bureaucracy wasted time.”

“The FDA career staff also delayed the vaccine by adding an unprecedented requirement to slow down Phase III trials. Four weeks before the Nov. 3 presidential election, the FDA increased the median follow-up period requirement for vaccine patients, ensuring that it would be impossible for the vaccine to be approved before the election. The move was a departure from a decades-old standard operating procedure at the agency and the process used to authorize convalescent plasma just months ago.

Even without the new requirement, the FDA would have had follow-up data from tens of thousands of volunteers who had been followed for months. If the FDA would have accepted safety data from the early group of summer vaccine recipients, we might have a vaccine in the public domain by now. Naturally, the FDA staff at the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research justified its novel requirement by using an old argument—increasing safety standards. That makes it hard for anyone to contest the new requirement without appearing cavalier. But what’s cavalier is delaying a safe and effective vaccine as thousands of Americans die each day.”

“The FDA’s surprise October decision to require more follow-up data for vaccine trials than they do for other drugs conflicts with the FDA’s regular process. The purpose of Phase I and II trials is to establish safety ahead of a Phase III trial, which is exactly the process that was followed. Phase I and II trials are conducted carefully and intensely monitor all volunteers with a regular panel of blood tests and other biophysical testing before giving the drug to tens of thousands of people in a Phase III trial. Leading scientists from around the world reviewed the Phase I, II, and III results and recommended proceeding on the road to authorization. This system has been working for decades. Politics is not a good reason to change it.

The abundance of vaccine news that came out right after the election was all great news. Two different vaccine regimens were found to be 90 percent to 95 percent effective in preventing the infection (and a third may be close to that in terms of efficacy), but it’s important to remember that they have been 100 percent effective in preventing serious cases of COVID-19. And to date, no one vaccinated has died of COVID-19 based on all available public data.”

“Some may argue that the current administration has been trying to rush a vaccine to market, so it’s implausible that the White House’s own FDA could be slowing things down. But political appointees at the FDA and the Department of Health and Human Services describe being shut out of the key decisions regarding the vaccine review processes. During this time, the FDA director was vacationing for a week in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, which was later clarified to be a self-quarantine while the director was working remotely. But in fairness to the director, he and his staff have almost no power over the FDA career staff. Appointees say that career staff at the FDA have not been transparent about what they are doing or why they are working at a snail’s pace. Moreover, this lack of transparency and sudden movement of vaccine goal posts just before Election Day demonstrates how the FDA career staff undermined the Trump administration and politicized science, slowing down the vaccine availability to everyday Americans.

A message to the FDA career staff: We are in a war. And right now it’s ugly. We’re losing doctors, nurses, and first responders as thousands of Americans perish daily. As the FDA career staff ponder the safety of known transient side effects like fatigue, they should consider the thousands of Americans dying each day they sit on the application. They should also remember that critical hospital staff are strained. Yesterday, the U.S. hit a record 100,000 Covid hospitalizations, which means other patients are not receiving important medical care.

Today, as the career FDA staff sit on the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine applications, we health care workers continue to work in highly infected ICUs and testing centers. Vulnerable seniors grow lonelier, and more American families fall behind financially. During a health emergency, the FDA should be convening a single, day-long meeting immediately when the data is submitted, in the same way American businesses have emergency board meetings when a crisis occurs. The FDA has a moral and civil obligation to review the data with a sense of urgency. It’s not too late—the FDA could call an emergency meeting today.

Marty Makary M.D., M.P.H. is a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.”

Database is being migrated today….

Covid19mathblog.com

Ever thought what would be the best window setup for you vehicle or uber vehicle to make sure you had ventilation in the vehicle to minimize covid – well opening just the front two windows is not the best choice according to this study. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/30/sciadv.abe0166

“As one might expect, all windows open (Config. 6) has the highest ACH – approximately 250, while among the remaining configurations, all windows closed (Config. 1) has the lowest ACH of 62. However, what is somewhat surprising is that the ACH for the configuration with windows adjacent to the driver and the passenger (FL and RR, respectively; Config. 2) are opened is only 89 – barely higher than the all-windows-closed configuration.”

Driver to Passenger

“A well-ventilated space requires the availability of an entrance and an exit, and a favorable pressure gradient between the two (41, 42). Once a cross-ventilation path is established (as in Config. 3 or Fig. 3), opening a third window has little effect on the ACH.”

“The all-windows-closed configuration (Config. 1) relying only on air conditioning fares the worst and results in over 10% of the scalar that leaves the driver reaching the passenger. In contrast, the all-windows-open setting (Config. 6) appears to be the best case, with almost no injected scalar reaching the passenger.”

“A two-windows open situation, wherein the driver and the passenger open their respective windows (Config. 2) might be assumed as the logical thing to do for avoiding infection from the other occupant. Although this configuration does improve over the all-windows closed situation, shown in Fig. 5b, one can see from the concentration field that Config. 2 does not effectively dilute the tracer particles, and the passenger receives a fairly large contaminant load from the driver.”

“With the substantially reduced initial concentration field near the driver, the fraction reaching the passenger is proportionately reduced. Thus, among the configurations with three windows open, Config. 5 might provide the best benefit from the viewpoint of driver-to-passenger transmission.”

Passenger to Driver

“The all-windows closed configuration (Config. 1) shows the highest concentration level at the driver (~8%). This value, however, is lower than the 11% reported for the inverse transport, i.e., from the driver to the passenger (Fig. 5b), a difference that can be attributed to the fact that the air-conditioning creates a front-to-back mean flow.”

“In summary, the flow patterns and the scalar concentration fields obtained from the CFD simulations demonstrate that establishing a dominant cross-ventilation flow within the car cabin is crucial to minimize potentially infectious particle transport between car occupants. With this flow pattern established, the relative positions of the driver and passenger determine the quantity of air transmitted between the occupants.”

“The all-windows-closed scenario (Config. 1) with only air-conditioning providing exchange appears to be the least effective option. Perhaps most surprising is that an intuitive option – of opening the windows adjacent to each occupant (Config. 2) is effective, but not always the best amongst the partial ventilation options. Config. 3, in which the two windows farthest from the occupants (FR and RL, respectively) are open, appears to give better protection to the passenger. The particular airflow patterns that the pressure distributions establish – channeling fresh air across the rear seat, and out the front- right window – help to minimize the interaction with the driver in the front left position.”

Another big reporting day with 2607 deaths in US along with a record 228K confirmation. As an overall the current known infected is 2.6% in the US.

CA leads confirmation by a long shot – TX leads deaths

County wise its LA for both death and confirmation. The leading county in TX continues to be El Paso – border town in the corner of TX.

Statewide policy is too large given these events are much more centralized at least to a county level.

LA is looking bad

Covid19mathblog.com

They did revise yesterday number – but today number still very high in both confirmation and deaths for the US – almost 3K

Worldwide looks like everyone observing an uptick in deaths and confirmation – including Asia

TX leads in deaths – CA leads in confirmation

However TX might lead state wide – the number one county for death is Cook IL which is also 2 in confirmation. TX county with highest death (4th place) is border county El Paso

Applying large rule requirements for large segments like a state wide mandate in TX or CA seems like a very crude approach. Northern CA has pretty much done very well – so for them to have restrictions the same as South seems quite random.

Certainly looks like LA is only going to get worse given the slope of confirmation.

Covid19mathblog.com

Today reporting astonishingly high -over 3K deaths in US – over 200K confirmations…However looks like there is some data issue at John Hopkins – see below with Nevada issue. Hopefully this gets resolved in tomorrows update.

Nevada leading deaths – with CA leading confirmation

However when we look at the details there looks to be an issue with data. The number one death county is being shown as Eureka NV @353 – but NV website not reporting that. In addition this would mean 1 in 6 is dying in the county.

Eureka website https://coronavirus-response-eurekanv-sidwell.hub.arcgis.com/

Clearly something is off.

Covid19mathblog.com

Interesting site to describe conditions and probabilities to getting covid. Obviously I have not validated all these scenarios – but looks like quite a bit of thought went into the site. A little slow to open. Perhaps a good guide for those looking to entertain. https://indoor-covid-safety.herokuapp.com/

Under 1K death worldwide – buts it’s a Sunday report…

I had to change graph from 30K to 100K+ – amazing to see how much the US is up there – but on a confirmation per capita not the worse

I needed to update the Death chart from 1K+ to 5K+ – US leads again but much lower than avg on a per capita basis

CA leads states in confirmation – PA leads death

County wise we have LA leading confirmation and Cook IL leading death

Not that disperse today

Positive news confirmations going down for Cook IL – LA unfortunately rising – now way above summer peak. Fatality rate seems to be converging around 2%. IF you get covid you have a 2% chance of dying. If you incorporate age the probability widens significantly.