Covid19mathblog.com

Well what is making the round is A study potentially concluding mask are not effective – another proof of confirmation bias – as people are seriously reading into the study what they WANT to see/hear – https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

“Conclusion: The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers by more than 50% in a community with modest infection rates, some degree of social distancing, and uncommon general mask use. The data were compatible with lesser degrees of self-protection.”

“The findings, however, should not be used to conclude that a recommendation for everyone to wear masks in the community would not be effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, because the trial did not test the role of masks in source control of SARS-CoV-2 infection. During the study period, authorities did not recommend face mask use outside hospital settings and mask use was rare in community settings (22). This means that study participants’ exposure was overwhelmingly to persons not wearing masks.”

“In addition, the wearer of a face mask may change to a less cautious behavior because of a false sense of security, as pointed out by WHO (17); accordingly, our face mask group seemed less worried (Supplement Table 4), which may explain their increased willingness to wear face masks in the future”

The conclusions of the report for the anti-mask folks is interpreted mask has not effect – even though in the report it clearly says in the conclusion section by more than 50%…..so 49% is still better than 0%?

In addition though they did a good job of normalizing occupation – they didn’t do any normalization or discussion on normalizing personalities/social preferences/family size/ etc…

They also note in the study they didn’t make sure the candidates did not behave the same way if they were without the mask. Okay seriously its JUST COMMON SENSE – do we really need a study for common sense? Mask wearing will reduce the probability of infection in a same setting/same behavior than without a mask. This type of “study” is complete BS as one cannot normalize the multiple variables of life. However we can do this in a very black and white setting on non-humans e.g. Guinea pigs and have proven that a filtration mechanism REDUCES viral load and chances of infection.

Personally I wear in public setting the Acteev mask as they are lined with zinc/magnesium to deactivate the virus so it goes beyond just holding the virus from getting in.

It is amazing what China has achieved in terms of eliminating Covid – but our society just isn’t designed for this. Can we implement quarantine camps? This would be a disaster PR – separating kids and parents – potentially moving a disproportionate race into camps – remember the crap given preventing certain foreigners in – Imagine trusting your neighbor to shop for you? – no debate on measures – immigrants left in the dust – https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-crushed-coronavirus-pandemic

“Committee members live within the residential compounds they manage. They kept track of those entering and exiting, enforced lockdown orders, recorded temperatures. If a case occurred, they locked the apartment block’s main door. They tracked down those who didn’t want to quarantine – in those situations a nosy neighbour was often more effective than any technological notification. They organised grocery deliveries so that people could stay at home.”

“This employee says that outsiders coming in must isolate to “become a normal person.” Only then can they rejoin society. The heart of China’s coronavirus response is, in short, infected until proven healthy.

Chinese nationals and foreign workers fly in from other countries everyday, some of them carrying Covid-19. These “imported cases” can number in the double digits. The aviation authority throttles flights to control the number of people coming in. People returning from high-risk countries such as the UK need to present a negative on both a nucleic acid and antibody test before boarding the plane, and they are tested again upon arrival.”

“Each person flying into Shanghai has a group of three people assigned to them: a doctor, a policeman, and a neighbourhood committee member. Quarantine is mandatory – at home or in a hotel – and the quarantined are not allowed to venture outside. Those who choose home will find a device mounted on their front door. Whenever they open it, the doctor and the Party committee member’s phones receive an alert, and a call will come in to ask why they have opened the door”

“Supply shortages were dealt with by leveraging China’s supply chain advantages – within two weeks, electric vehicle manufacturer BYD had started producing millions of masks, which it is now shipping overseas to California too. After patients with mild symptoms were discovered to have infected their family members, the government changed its policy. Instead of allowing people to stay at home, medical authorities took them to shelter hospitals called fangcang, separating them from their families. Fangcang are, in essence, large convention centres with rows of beds. Those staying there describe 600-people-strong dorm rooms where the lights are always on. Later, asymptomatic cases had the same treatment. Patients could only leave these hospitals after they tested negative twice, and then stayed in quarantine wards for another two weeks. Avoiding quarantine, hiding symptoms or concealing that you had been to a virus hotspot were designated crimes.”

“China’s virus control effort was single-minded – the goal was always total elimination. Officials were fired for perceived dereliction of duty, or promoted for successfully controlling the virus. There was never large-scale debate on the efficacy of masks, or whether only vulnerable people should shelter, or whether there was a trade off between saving the economy and saving lives, or whether the cost was greater than the cure. And it was costly: 25 million migrant workers may be out of a job. There is no furlough scheme for them. As in other countries, Covid-19 revealed social inequities – it is no coincidence that those detected in clusters since have been workers at markets in Beijing, docks in Qingdao, and a factory in Kashgar. And the narrative of success is such that those who might feel otherwise, who lost relatives in Wuhan, have faced interrogations and suspicion from local authorities.”

Even healthy and young probably not worth the risk to get covid given 10% of covid-19 develop lasting symptoms – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/19/long-covid-overlap-emerges-with-me-including-debate-over-treatment

“Based on current estimates, about 10% of Covid-19 patients develop lasting symptoms, one of the most common being fatigue. The underlying mechanism is still unclear, but possible explanations include reduced oxygen supply to tissues caused by heart or lung damage, or muscle weakness from prolonged bed rest.”

“Like people with ME/CFS, many long-Covid patients report headaches, brain fog, sleep problems, a racing heart, joint and muscle pain and fatigue. Some also experience a relapse of fever, muscle pain and exhaustion, known as “post-exertional malaise”, if they exercise beyond their capabilities.

Lets get more vaxphoria – certainly seems the vaccine should be right around the corner – I wonder how the vaccine impacts other coronavirus e.g. common cold – Imagine the productivity boost if common cold is also reduced. – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/oxford-covid-vaccine-prompts-immune-response-among-all-adults-study.html

“The study of 560 healthy adults, including 240 over the age of 70-years-old, found the vaccine to be safe and produced a similar immune response among people aged over 56-years-old and those aged between 18 and 55.

British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca, which is working in collaboration with the University of Oxford, has previously said interim data showed their experimental vaccine had produced an immune response in older and younger adults.

The authors of the Oxford study said their results could be encouraging if the immune responses are found to be associated with protection against Covid-19 infection.

The phase two trial did not assess vaccine efficacy, however, and phase three trials are ongoing to confirm this.”

US leading death and confirmation

TX leads in both death and confirmation

Cook County fell to 3rd place in confirmation – LA back on top – RI second place. Cook IL however leads in death. A TX county doesn’t show up till 4th place – El Paso TX. The dispersion and geographical largess makes TX seem to be a hot spot – but that’s not the reality.

Map is less disperse today.

Last 30 days the top counties you probably don’t want to be socializing in – Salt Lake Utah, Cook IL, Hennepin Mn, Tarrant TX

Country wise – the US is not the worse place in terms of the odds of bumping into someone with covid – Eastern Europe countries looking bad – along with Belgium, France, and Switzerland. Asian countries very low.

Death wise US is even lower in terms of relative to the avg of those countries 1K+

Covid19mathblog.com

Some progress on the home testing front – https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-11-17/fda-allows-1st-rapid-virus-test-that-gives-results-at-home

“The FDA granted emergency authorization to the 30-minute test kit from Lucira Health, a California manufacturer.

The company’s test allows users to swab themselves to collect a nasal sample. The sample is then swirled in a vial that plugs into a portable device that interprets the results and displays whether the person tested positive or negative for the coronavirus.”

As we decide to make our decision to get together for Thanksgiving to weddings to parties – lets get the facts and do what we can to shift the odds into your favor. It is very important to realize covid deaths are real. You can see comparing deaths from this year (NOT DONE) to last year deaths – Covid is a top 10 reason of death even if you half the numbers for potential overcounting – and its consistent no matter what state – Covid deaths are big – only a few are in the lower end range.

CA

CO

FL

Even Idaho – you can cut in half and still would be top 10

IL

LA – top death

Maine looks pretty safe….

MA Top

NY Top

ND

OH

OR not too bad

PA – once again even half would still be in top 10

TX

Wy not too bad

Fact number 2 – deaths are disproportionate to the elder – once again no matter what state – and no matter what timeline – even the current deaths which in theory have been spread to all age groups show deaths are still for the elder

CA

CO even much less youth impacted than nationwide stat – likely healthier and more outdoor exposure

NY

ND just started seeing some deaths under 55

OH youth deaths under nationwide stat by almost 2X

TX youth death under nationwide stat

Youth impact beyond death is still limited in data but there are certainly a fair number of scary longterm impact that you would still want to do what you can to not get it. For the younger people – do you want to be the conduit that kills the elder? The elder – do you want to cause the youth to experience life of quarantine and miss out on key events in their lives? These are the risk/reward we must personally answer – many who roll the dice will be fine. Once again IF you plan to get together – you need to be in a ventilated space to reduce viral load. You can wear a mask to help reduce viral load. You can open windows blow fresh air into the area. Time is not on your side IF anyone is infected in your group. You can run air cleaners – I use Air Free. You can also make your body as healthy as possible – eat whole foods – take vitamin D, C, zinc and melatonin. There is no certainty in life but we do have some individual accountability and perceived control of reducing odds of infection and the spreading of covid.

Both US and France above 1K deaths. US confirmation continue to soar.

TX leader of death – IL leader of confirmation.

Again Cook County leads confirmation – LA leads in death. Though TX leads in death totals – largely from multiple counties. Clark County Nevada actually second place in death.

Lots of dispersion in the map.

Finally signs of Cook County IL flattening out in confirmation – still the peak is almost 2X LA and Miami-Dade

Interesting to note Missing China from the list and South Asian country other than Philippines from counts of confirmation for the last 30 days.

Covid19mathblog.com

Just what you needed with your mask – fresh breath – mouthwash seen as effective against Covid – https://www.newschain.uk/news/mouthwash-kills-coronavirus-within-30-seconds-laboratory-tests-study-finds-48545

“Mouthwash can eradicate coronavirus within 30 seconds of being exposed to it in a laboratory, a scientific study has found.”

“The Cardiff University report said that mouthwashes containing at least 0.07% cetypyridinium chloride (CPC) showed “promising signs” of being able to combat the virus.”

“Dentyl is the only UK mouthwash brand to take part in the 12-week clinical trial, which is led by Professor David Thomas from Cardiff University and titled: “The measurement of mouthwash anti-viral activity against Covid-19”.

Dr Thomas told the PA news agency: “Whilst these mouthwashes very effectively eradicate the virus in the laboratory, we need to see if they work in patients and this is the point of our ongoing clinical study.

“It is important to point out the study won’t give us any direct evidence on viral transmission between patients, that would require a different type of study on a much larger scale.

“The ongoing clinical study will, however, show us how long any effects last, following a single administration of the mouthwash in patients with Covid-19.””

Deaths under 1K – but US confirmation astronomical 166K

Out nowhere LA shows up leading death at 255. Michigan confirmation leader 13K

Cook IL continues confirmation with New Orleans leading death

Map is looking more focused

S. Korea has crossed 200 confirmations per day and is beginning to implement more social distance role.

Covid19mathblog.com

Another good news – but likely overhyped as the Pfizer test – https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-11-16/moderna-vaccine-is-found-highly-effective-at-preventing-covid-19?

“Moderna Inc. said its Covid-19 vaccine was 94.5% effective in a preliminary analysis of a large late-stage clinical trial, another sign that a fast-paced hunt by scientists and pharmaceutical companies is paying off with potent new tools that could help control a worsening pandemic.”

“A preliminary analysis of data from more than 30,000 volunteers showed Moderna’s vaccine prevented virtually all symptomatic cases of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, the company said in a statement on Monday.”

“Only five participants who received two doses of the vaccine became sick, compared with 90 coronavirus cases in participants who received a placebo, according to a review by an independent data safety monitoring board appointed by the U.S. National Institutes of Health.”

So if we assume 50% placebo – the sample is 90/15000=%0.6 – which is on the low end of where one would roll out the vaccine. We have over 203 counties with population above 100K that are over 1% per capita. My concern is the demographic was slighted to the younger age spectrum hence lower infection rate – but just speculation given the low infection rate.

The start of covid seems to be earlier than most think per – https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0300891620974755

“We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)–specific antibodies in blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 to track the date of onset, frequency, and temporal and geographic variations across the Italian regions. SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%), with a cluster of positive cases (>30%) in the second week of February 2020 and the highest number (53.2%) in Lombardy. This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified, and clarifies the onset and spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic.”

Interestingly when I wrote about the Covid being found in frozen meat the following article came across my feed – https://unherd.com/2020/11/factory-farming-will-kill-us-all/

This certainly is a food for thought article.

“the Danish mink episode is just one more proof that factory farms are ticking time-bombs of zoonotic disease — those which leap from animals to humans — and petri-dishes of bacterial infections.”

“Our Western arrogance towards animalia is Rene Descartes’ fault, of course. As soon as the Enlightenment philosopher declared that animals were automata, and only humans conscious and deserving compassion, the creatures of the Earth were done for.

If animals are “flesh robots”, ethically they can be as badly treated as you like. Add the generalised disconnect from nature concommitant with the Industrial Revolution, and the table appetites of late capitalism (more meat, please!) you end up with the factory farming of Peppa, Ermintrude and the Little Red Hen, plus the remainder of Old Macdonald’s old-style farmyard. All of them reduced to “units” or “produce” rather than sentient beings.

By definition, a factory farm entails intensive rearing, with the livestock in close proximity, beak to beak, snout to snout. The old rule of farming — the one I was taught by my grandfather — is that “a sheep’s worst enemy is another sheep”. Put another way, any disease or sickness with animals close-packed “whips through the lot like wildfire”, in his words.

The overcrowding of animals in factory farms not only enables easy transmission of disease; according to the European Food Safety Agency, the stress from the overcrowding (often on bare concrete or metal slats), the inability to display normal behaviour compromises the animals’ immune system… which increases their susceptibility to disease. A vicious circle of malady.

The circle of malady can become a spiral of death. Factory animals tend to be genetically similar to each other — clones, effectively — selected for traits such as big breasts or big rumps. Thus, a virus introduced into the herd or flock can run through it without meeting any resistance in the form of genetic variants to prevent its spread.

It is different in the wild, or on farms which practise low-stocking densities. Viruses dislike killing their host, since if the host dies their demise follows. Out in the jungle or on organically-run Welsh hills, say, pathogens do not regularly encounter hosts, so the pathogen has to keep its virulence low — otherwise it runs out of hospitable bodies. But in a shed with 250,000 laying hens the pathogen has a positive embarrassment of hosts, and can go through them like, well, wild fire.

This is why factory farms pose a bigger risk for zoonotic outbreaks than either the natural world or farms using low stocking rates.”

“Between 1997 and 2006, the H5N1 virus — or avian flu — which was transmitted from poultry to humans, achieved a 59% mortality rate among people affected. For comparison, Covid-19’s mortality rate is in the neighborhood of 1%.

Intensive poultry operations are the Manhattan Projects of viral development, and China is replete with them. Starting in the 1990s, as part of its economic transformation, China ramped up its food production systems to industrial scale. There are currently 5.27 billion chickens in China, most of them being farmed intensively.

Almost as nightmarish as avian H5N1 was the H1N1 swine flu which emerged from multiple viral gene “reassortment events” in farmed pigs in North America in 2009, before jumping to humans. The Swine Flu pandemic went global, killing between 151,700 and 575,400, before being suppressed at great cost.

In June this year a new strain of swine flu, similar to the one that caused the 2009 episode, was identified in China. Named G4 EA H1N1, it possesses “all the essential hallmarks of a candidate pandemic virus”, according to the authors of one scientific paper.

None of these near-misses have stopped the continual industrialisation of farming in the world’s most populous country. The latest pig farms in China are multistoried, with 1,270 pigs per floor, and over 90% of the meat on China’s plate comes from factory farms.

And so China lurches from pandemic to pandemic: H7N9 avian flu; Covid-19; H1NI. African Swine Fever…

It is not just the mutant viruses manufactured in factory farms that are the stuff of bad dreams. The other pandemic risk associated with factory farms is from highly drug-resistant bacterial pathogens. Industrial farms are heavily reliant on antibiotics, both as prophylactics and as therapeutics. Overuse of these antibiotics causes bacteria to evolve, with those that mutate to survive the antibiotic becoming more dominant. Worldwide it is estimated that 73% of all antibiotics are used in farm animals. (In the UK the figure is about 30%.) According to leading authorities such as the European Medicines Agency and the WHO, the overuse of antibiotics in farming contributes to higher levels of antibiotic resistance in some human infections.

This is more serious than most people understand, and already, every 15 minutes, one person in the US dies because of an infection that antibiotics can no longer beat. The post-antibiotic era is already here, and it will get worse. Small wonder then, that the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations says that “Livestock health is the weakest link in our global health chain.””

“Presently, one billion pigs, three billion ducks and 69 billion chickens (the three most commonly killed terrestrial animals in the world) are slaughtered annually to meet the demand for meat.

So we are not going to give up meat as a species, but as a matter of growing urgency we need to de-intensify and deindustrialise the livestock industry. It is not just humans who need to socially distance; we need to give the animals some space, and outdoors. The consequences if we don’t act soon could be truly catastrophic.”

This is the stuff of apocalyptic movie themes.

No country over 1K

Texas lead in death and IL and FL had over 10K confirmation

Cook county IL leads the US with confirmations and death

LA is rising again and almost back to the summer peak of confirmations per day

France numbers have significantly dropped

Covid19mathblog.com

Scary movie plot – best way to transmute a virus – through food supply – highly contagious virus impacts slaughter houses across America (unfortunately true) – then meat being supplied to people and restaurants contain virus too (hopefully not true and only limited to the following article find)– IF only it was a movie but its 2020 – However I will still contend the data shows most infection from breathing not consuming or by fomites – https://www.investing.com/news/coronavirus/china-finds-coronavirus-on-frozen-beef-tripe-from-various-countries-2348345

“The eastern Chinese city of Jinan said it has found the new coronavirus on beef and tripe, and on packaging for these products, from Brazil, New Zealand and Bolivia as China ramps up testing on frozen foods.

The importers were a unit of Guotai International Group (SZ:002091) and Shanghai Zhongli Development Trade, the Jinan Municipal Health Commission said in a statement on its website late on Saturday.”

“The samples that tested positive came from a 24-tonne batch of frozen pork that was sent from a cold storage facility in Qingdao port to a warehouse for a market in Zhengzhou city.

The batch was found to be contaminated during a screening before the goods could enter the warehouse, the government said.

The World Health Organization says the risk of catching COVID-19 from frozen food is low, but China has repeatedly sounded alarms after detecting the virus on imported food products, triggering disruptive import bans.”

Now didn’t New Zealand say they got it from import – now China saying they got it from New Zealand? Sounds like isolationism could be coming….

Here is a positive article – find using existing drug Baricitinib – used to treat rheumatoid arthritis – which is focused anti-inflammatory so it makes sense to be effective in treating covid-19 – https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/arthritis-drug-can-reduce-mortality-rate-in-covid-19-patients-by-71-study/story-EHoV7dBtUBU0ao1KwGPYKI.html

“Covid-19 researchers have identified that an Arthritis drug can help in reducing the mortality rate in elderly people by 71%. As per the findings, a daily pill of baricitinib along with standard care can reduce the deaths by 71% in Covid-19 patients with moderate or severe infection.”

That’s the good news – but its 2020 – the bad news its $2265 for 30 day supply! https://www.lillypricinginfo.com/olumiant

Well here is a study showing the negative side of closing schools down. I hope we can learn from the past and have acceptance that perhaps we made the wrong decisions – certainly as a parent I cannot say I have always made the right decision but I try to learn and do better – and just perhaps no matter how you may hate someone e.g. Trump – they can be right on things and perhaps for the wrong reason – but nonetheless right https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2772834

“Results A total of 24.2 million children aged 5 to 11 years attended public schools that were closed during the 2020 pandemic, losing a median of 54 (interquartile range, 48-62.5) days of instruction. Missed instruction was associated with a mean loss of 0.31 (95% credible interval [CI], 0.10-0.65) years of final educational attainment for boys and 0.21 (95% CI, 0.06-0.46) years for girls. Summed across the population, an estimated 5.53 million (95% CI, 1.88-10.80) YLL may be associated with school closures. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a total of 88 241 US deaths from COVID-19 through the end of May 2020, with an estimated 1.50 million (95% CI, 1.23-1.85 million) YLL as a result. Had schools remained open, 1.47 million (95% credible interval, 0.45-2.59) additional YLL could have been expected as a result, based on results of studies associating school closure with decreased pandemic spread. Comparing the full distributions of estimated YLL under both “schools open” and “schools closed” conditions, the analysis observed a 98.1% probability that school opening would have been associated with a lower total YLL than school closure.

Conclusions and Relevance In this decision analytical model of years of life potentially lost under differing conditions of school closure, the analysis favored schools remaining open. Future decisions regarding school closures during the pandemic should consider the association between educational disruption and decreased expected lifespan and give greater weight to the potential outcomes of school closure on children’s health.”

“While the scientific evidence on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children remains in flux, recent studies indicate that young children (<10 years) appear less likely to serve as vectors for COVID-19 transmission.3,4 Although the risks of keeping schools open drove decisions made in the early phases of the pandemic, the probable harm to children associated with school closure were less explicitly discussed.5 The public debate has pitted “school closures” against “lives saved,” or the education of children against the health of the community. Presenting the tradeoffs in this way obscures the very real health consequences of interrupted education.

These consequences are especially dire for young children. There is little reason to believe that virtual learning environments can be effective for primary school–aged children. A meta-analysis6 of 99 experimental studies included only 5 conducted in school-aged children, and they were primarily in fifth through eighth grade. The meta-analysis concluded that “the mean effect size [for online learning] is not significant for the seven contrasts involving K-12 students.”6(pXV) That so few studies have even been conducted in this age group is also telling. A recent study comparing Indiana children in grades 3 through 8 who switched from brick-and-mortar to virtual schooling “experienced large, negative effects in math and [English/language
arts] that were sustained across time”.7(p170) Sal Khan, a widely respected innovator in the field of distance learning, reported that distance learning approaches do not work for younger students.8 Furthermore, it is not clear how much access to remote instruction primary school–aged children actually received during the spring of 2020. For example, in its March 2020 guidelines for districts, the Illinois Department of Education recommended that primary school children have a maximum of 60 to 120 minutes per day in remote learning, representing a fraction of a regular school day.9 In 2 national surveys, teachers of all grades reported that only 60% of their students were regularly engaging in distance learning at all, and only 27% of teachers took attendance.10-12 Accordingly, it is reasonable to infer that primary school–aged children received minimal meaningful instruction beyond what is being delivered by their parents or other caregivers at home.13 It is not surprising, then, that the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine’s report on school openings13 concluded that districts should make returning primary school children to in-person classes a priority.”

“One US report18 found that the single best predictor of high-school graduation was fourth-grade reading test scores: 23% of children who are not reading at grade level by the end of third grade will not graduate high school, compared with 9% of those who are. The risks are even greater for low-income Black or Hispanic students: 33% of those not reading at grade level will not graduate from high school. These educational impairments are in turn consequential for mortality: the quality and quantity of education received today have considerable effects on life expectancy.”

“Scenario 1 Estimation This analysis suggests that 10 days of missed school is associated with a reduction in final educational attainment of 0.0262 (SE, 0.0064) years for boys and 0.0217 years (SE, 0.0062) years for girls.”

“Prior research in economics has estimated the association between decreased educational attainment and life expectancy using a variety of causal inference techniques.21,22,26-30 Using the method described in the eAppendix in the Supplement, we estimated a weighted average effect of these estimates, which suggested that each additional year of education attained is associated with a relative risk of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.60-0.90) of annual mortality.”

“Scenario 2 Estimation

Estimation of YLL under unobserved conditions (ie, US primary schools being left open with a potential for increased spread of COVID-19) necessarily required explicit modeling of a range of potential scenarios. In order to model parameter uncertainty, we again performed a Monte Carlo simulation, this time using a Program Evaluation Research Task (PERT) distribution”

“Auger and colleagues37 recently published an estimate that school closures may have prevented 40 600 US deaths during the early phase of the pandemic, with a mortality rate of 19.4 deaths per 100 000 population under school opening and 6.8 per 100 000 under school closure. In contrast, Courtemanche and colleagues38 estimated a nonsignificant daily decrease in mortality associated with school opening. Using a PERT distribution, we used the Auger mortality ratio (2.85) as our maximum estimate. Given the belief on the part of some investigators that young children do not measurably influence disease spread, we used a mortality ratio of 1 as our minimum estimate. To define a plausible modal estimate, we used the average of the Auger and Courtemanche mortality ratios, using a baseline schools-closed mortality rate in the Courtemanche estimate (which was not provided) equal to that in Auger. This yielded a modal mortality ratio of 1.93.

We summarized our data with 95% credible intervals (95% CIs) drawn from our Monte Carlo estimates, constructed distributional summary plots, and finally estimated the probability that YLL associated with COVID-19 in 2020 were greater under primary school closure than had schools remained open by enumerating the proportion of Monte Carlo draws where this event was observed. All statistical analyses and graphs were constructed using R, version 3.6.2 (R Foundation).”

“Both Argentinian and US data suggest the influence of educational interruption is greater for low-income children and for boys, suggesting that the potential outcomes of school closures may be felt more substantively by vulnerable populations in the United States.14,18 Those outcomes are compounded by the fact that there was demonstrably less engagement in distance learning among low-income minority children: schools serving predominantly Black and Hispanic students reported that only 60% to 70% were participating in remote education on a regular basis, and only one-third were participating daily.11,40,43 Finally, to preserve intergenerational equity, the costs of future life years lost for young children today must be factored into decision-making regarding school openings and potential future closings. We believe that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has extracted an enormous sacrifice from its youngest citizens to protect the health of its oldest. During a pandemic, this may well be an ethically defensible tradeoff, but only if resources are invested to reverse the potential damage to health and education that this strategy may inflict on a population with low visibility and high vulnerability.”

US deaths 1266 – with confirmations just out there +167555! Just think about how many test would have to be done to get that number in 1 day! Lets assume even 20% positivity – that’s almost 1 million test done in 1 day

IL leading both death and confirmation

Seriously Cook County IL has serious issues topping confirmation and deaths again

Deaths are becoming less disperse as was for most of the summer

Going with the theme of figuring out the odds of bumping into someone that is potentially infectious ASSUMING 30 days past data is irrelevant as the person is likely recovered or past away. We see even though US leads in confirmations by a significant amount over last 30 days they are right at average at slightly under 1% per capita.

But as we showed aggregation data is not the best to be using in deciding reality decision as Covid is quite focused but viral at the same time.

Covid19mathblog.com

I am sure you are seeing articles such as this – which are for sure very alarming – https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/13/us-states-covid-coronavirus-hot-spot-pandemic-catastrophe/

This would surely support a massive quarantine and travel restrictions, but state level numbers though show high numerical numbers are not really explaining the issue.

Below are charts for the last 30 days (large assumption going past 30 days – those confirmations are no longer infectious given recovered or past away (some are noting longer infectious than 30 days but seem very rare))

Everyone loves to talk about TX and their big numbers and TX citizens should be banned from traveling to other states.

So the past 30 days show the big numbers are from El Paso TX a border county. Very serious for sure as the odds of bumping into an individual that is infectious is 5% – so if you meet with 20 people likely you have met with 1 person that is infectious. However if you go to the more popular region – Harris County (Houston) you would have to meet with 200 person before bumping into someone that is infectious. Childress TX – county near OK small population of 7K the odds is almost 1 out of 10. Clearly that region needs to be careful and figure out what to do. But on a county basis large dispersion of odds – with most of the population less than 1%

The other big number state for the last 30 day IL. They have had some astronomical figures – almost to the point of unbelievable. They have tested – IF you believe their testing numbers are unique persons – but they don’t clarify that on site https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics – they have tested 70% of population of the state! IF lets say it really 3 test for per person then its still 23% of the state. Nonetheless the epicenter of the numbers is Cook County IL. Still the odds of bumping into someone infectious in that county is meeting with 66 people. But unlike TX the dispersion of odds is relatively consistent across IL so there is a real concern in this state vs. TX. A travel ban to IL perhaps is reasonable.

LA in CA has shown big numbers but they have the population to disperse the odds. They are showing similar odds to Harris County TX – so roughly have to meet with 200 before bumping into someone that is infectious. There are some hot spots Mono and Alpine County.

Big deaths and confirmation reporting for the US

TX leading both confirmation and deaths. IL 2nd in confirmation.

County view – Cook IL leads in confirmation 6k – then El Paso TX at 3K – El Paso TX also leads all US county at 49 deaths.

Dispersion of results continue – unlike the summer time.

Europe is no longer spiking. Some are coming down e.g. France and Belgium. Does quarantine mean less testing to?

Covid19mathblog.com

Daily dose of wellness in the flu season – and now Covid season – Vitamin C D Zinc and some melatonin – another reason for Vitamin D – https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33164936/

“Vitamin D supplementation for 12 months appears to improve cognitive function through reducing oxidative stress regulated by increased TL in order adults with MCI. Vitamin D may be a promising public health strategy to prevent cognitive decline.”

Vitamin D should be free for the public. Likely more effective than unenforceable laws/restrictions.

Continuing with the Vaccine news – we have CureVac say its RNA vaccine doesn’t require the refrigeration load required from Pfizer – https://nypost.com/2020/11/12/curevac-says-its-covid-19-vaccine-can-be-stored-in-standard-fridges/

“German biotechnology firm CureVac boasted Thursday that its potential COVID-19 vaccine can be stored at standard refrigerator temperatures — unlike rival Pfizer’s, which needs to be kept in ultra-frigid storage.

The company said the liquid vaccine is able to be maintained at 41 degrees Fahrenheit for at least three months before it spoils.

The vaccine, which is anticipated to soon enter Phase III trials, can also be kept at room temperature for up to 24 hours, the company said.”

“Though most vaccines are protein-based, CureVac and Pfizer’s ones are formulated from a synthetic mRNA. However, the mRNA component in the Pfizer vaccine can fall apart if not stored at the correct temperature, experts said.

“The vaccine is so fragile. This mRNA begins to degrade at warmer temperatures very quickly and so it has to be maintained at this very, very cold temperature,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of infectious disease at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told The Post.

It’s unclear why the CureVac shot has a better shelf life, but the company said it is continuing to study such factors.”

Testing concern noted here several times – more evidence that PCR test are not testing for what you really want to know – infectious – not existence – can you imagine testing to see if someone had traces of a cold virus of recent (this year) you would find a lot of people both symptomatic and asymptomatic – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.7570?guestAccessKey=26a817a5-2e73-4c00-9fc8-42493feb1b6e&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jamainternalmedicine&utm_content=olf&utm_term=111220

“32 of 176 NOS samples (18.2%) tested positive for total SARS-CoV-2 RNA, with viral loads ranging from 1.6 × 101 to 1.3 × 104 SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies per mL. One of the 32 samples (3.1%) had replicative SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Samples from the 32 patients at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis were also tested and, expectedly, had replicative SARS-CoV-2 RNA. All but 1 of 32 patients had a positive serology result against SARS-CoV-2 (Table), as well as 139 of remaining 144 patients (data not shown), at COVID-19 follow-up. The patient who tested serologically negative was not the one with a positive test result for replicative SARS-CoV-2 RNA. The mean (SD) time from COVID-19 diagnosis to follow-up was 48.6 (13.1) days in 32 patients (Table) and 57.7 (16.9) days in 144 patients (data not shown).”

“18% of patients with COVID-19 in our institution became RT-PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA after clinical recovery and previous negative results.5 As positivity in the patients was suggestive, but not necessarily a reflection, of viral carriage, we used replicative SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection as a proxy for virus replication in culture.4

Only 1 of 32 patients retesting positive had replicating virus in the NOS sample, suggesting either recurrent infection or reinfection, which is impossible to separate because no whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analyses were performed.3 The patient retested positive 16 days after COVID-19 recovery (ie, 39 days from COVID-19 diagnosis) and was symptomatic. The patient was an older adult with hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease but no evidence of close contacts with people with SARS-CoV-2 infection or persons who became RT-PCR positive. In the 31 remaining patients (who were asymptomatic), their positive result likely represented either recurrent or resolving infection, but in either case, they were unlikely to be infectious. The limitations of our study are the lack of data from viral cultures or whole-genome sequencing analysis and the small sample size.”

“This study highlights that many patients who recovered from COVID-19 may be still positive (albeit at lower levels) for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, but only a minority of the patients may carry a replicating SARS-CoV-2 in the respiratory tract. Further studies are needed to verify whether such patients can transmit the virus.”

IF true we are quarantining unnecessary – we need to identify super spreader and the current PCR testing is a very crude approach.

School review – overall shows schools are not super spreader environment – something else causing most of the increases:

El Paso TX awful surge of covid – was not due to school as they have been the most closed in TX – never opening beyond 30% in person. Could it have been worse if they were open? Perhaps but looking at the counites that have been open Ft. Bend,Travis, and Bexar this has not been the case.

FL – rise in confirmation seen in Broward county as they opened However the other schools are also seeing the rise recently BUT they have been opened for 50 days before and did not see the rise till now – so this could be a natural rise whether schools open or not

CA has no diversity off school opening – the entire state quite uniform. San Diego is seeing a slight more rise than Santa Clara as they have a slight edge on in person school 10%

Ohio Stark county is taking off – but notice Lorain is also taking off and they have no in person school

Colorado Boulder shows a better control of increase confirmation and they have the lowest in school.

PA – Dauphin has been 0 in person for school yet confirmation has been rising they recently open 50% but yet no dramatic increase relative to centre who has been at 50%

No country above 1K

FL lead in deaths with Il continuing enormous confirmations 12+K

County leader in death Osceola FL – first time leader – Cook IL testing is off the chart

Lots of dispersion compared to summer time months

World view – we are past the spring peak in terms of death per day. Confirmations are almost 6X from spring. Testing data is very sporadic but the trend is clearly more testing – confirmation/testing has declined and now is around 6.5% worldwide. But imagine if we tested asymptomatic cold/flu people how much confirmation we would see in those categories.

Covid19mathblog.com

Well looks like the people better be careful what they wish for – https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/11/biden-covid-advisor-says-us-lockdown-of-4-to-6-weeks-could-control-pandemic-and-revive-economy.html

“Dr. Michael Osterholm, a coronavirus advisor to President-elect Joe Biden, said a nationwide lockdown would help bring the virus under control in the U.S.”

“"The problem with the March-to-May lockdown was that it was not uniformly stringent across the country. For example, Minnesota deemed 78 percent of its workers essential," they wrote in The New York Times. "To be effective, the lockdown has to be as comprehensive and strict as possible."

On Wednesday, Osterholm said such a lockdown would help the country bring the virus under control, "like they did in New Zealand and Australia." Epidemiologists have repeatedly pointed to New Zealand, Australia and parts of Asia that have brought the number of daily new cases to under 10 as an example of how to contain the virus.”

“On the current trajectory, Osterholm said the U.S. is headed for dark days before a vaccine becomes available. He said health-care systems across the country are already overwhelmed in places such as El Paso, Texas, where local officials have already closed businesses and the federal government is sending resources to handle a surge in deaths caused by Covid-19.

Osterholm said the country needs leadership. The president-elect is up to the task of providing that leadership, Osterholm said, adding that it could also come from local and state officials or those in the medical community. He referenced the fireside chats broadcast over radio during former President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s terms, through which Roosevelt addressed the country on issues ranging from the Great Depression to World War II.

"People don’t want to hear that El Paso isn’t an isolated event. El Paso, in many instances, will become the norm," he said. "I think that the message is: How do we get through this? We need FDR moments right now. We need fireside chats. We need somebody to tell America, ‘This is what in the hell is going to happen.’"

They were so strict in Melbourne they had collateral damage from deaths from infants not being able to go hospitals they typically go to – https://fee.org/articles/four-newborns-die-after-being-denied-heart-surgery-because-of-covid-travel-restrictions/

The country is not uniform in issue – we still believe in local and state powers – or do we? Are we giving up state rights and going federalism? Covid is not uniform in counties…

Jumping the gun on El Paso – no demographic and social analysis done to understand what is happening in the border town in TX – don’t you need to know the root of the problem before jumping into a solution? Fatality rates still amazingly low.

Last 30 days county confirmation/capita with state avg temps above 1.2% – you can see the counties outside Maricopa and LA are below 60 for state avg temp.

On the other end of the spectrum – in order to limit the amount of counties limited to 1+ Million population counties and those less than 0.5% last 30 days confirmation per capita – You can see no one below 50F other than King Washington. Do we treat these counties the same as the above counties given significant differences?

From the data it does seem quite clear that HVAC is a key to help mitigate covid spread – being quarantined in homes might actually increase confirmations if people get together. Can you stop social/family/friends from gathering?

Seems like in the beginning when everyone was developing new test that would test you easily (no nose) and get results in minutes – well where did they all go – never made it to reality – well the news du jour is vaccine –

Russian Vaccine – https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03209-0 https://www.9news.com.au/world/scientists-cautious-as-russia-says-early-data-shows-sputnik-v-coronavirus-vaccine-is-92-per-cent-effective/760b44ae-f49c-4699-9d6f-de1bc159b1f3

92% – 2% better than Pfizer

“Pfizer’s is based on a messenger RNA platform, a never-before-approved vaccine technology, while RDIF’s is based on an inactivated adenoviral vector.

One advantage of adenoviral vaccines is that they do not need to be stored and transported in extremely cold temperatures, according to scientists.

But Dr Hotez cautions that no matter the vaccine make-up, drug makers risk getting ahead of themselves by making efficacy claims at this point.

"I would say neither announcement should have been made. That’s not how we do this." he said.

"The way we do this is you submit the dossier to the regulators. The regulators authorise it, either authorise it or approve it. And then you go ahead, and you can release that information to the public with the clinical trial data ready to go."”

I have to agree with Dr Hotez- seems like more of a popularity contest vs. a scientific inquiry. Both tested on very small sample.

Not to be not outdone – Moderna – https://fortune.com/2020/11/12/moderna-stock-covid-vaccine-trial-pfizer/

“The bet among top experts in the field is that Moderna’s therapy, which uses a similar mRNA technology to Pfizer’s, will likely prove to be highly effective, perhaps mirroring Pfizer’s announcement earlier this week that its shot appears to be more than 90% effective.

“Overall I would expect similar results” in Moderna’s trial, said Drew Weissman, an immunologist and mRNA expert at the University of Pennsylvania who helped develop key modifications used in mRNA vaccines.

“It is hard to imagine how it would be much different,” according to Weissman, whose lab receives research funding from BioNTech SE, the company partnering with Pfizer on its vaccine.”

Both Pfizer and Moderna – requires massive refrigeration and 2 doses! – this makes it somewhat impractical for mass dissemination. Anyway lets hope it works and not empty promises like all these testing discoveries….

High deaths in US and France

Another first GA leads in deaths at 542! Confirmation continue for IL and TX

If there is anyplace that needs to lockdown its Cook Il

Very strange even though GA lead in deaths it was very dispersed no county greater than 30

LA and Maricopa represent multiple FPS which created an issue in calculating per capita confirmation. This is fixed and now LA 3.27% and Maricopa 4%. El Paso continues to grow now at 8%. Cook IL now surpassed 4.4%.

El Paso TX is still faring will in terms of fatality rate – lowest out of the current set – only 1% death/confirmed. Cook on the other end is the highest at 2.5% but at least declining.

Fatality rate in Europe similar bucket range from Italy at 4% to Norway at 1%

As bleak as US may look per reporting comparison by country – if we look on a region basis US is faring better than Europe. The worse is Central America. The best is Asia.

Covid19mathblog.com

The CDC has now caught up to the obvious – even cloth mask help – https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

“Cloth masks not only effectively block most large droplets (i.e., 20-30 microns and larger)9 but they can also block the exhalation of fine droplets and particles (also often referred to as aerosols) smaller than 10 microns ;3,5 which increase in number with the volume of speech10-12 and specific types of phonation.13 Multi-layer cloth masks can both block up to 50-70% of these fine droplets and particles3,14 and limit the forward spread of those that are not captured.5,6,15,16 Upwards of 80% blockage has been achieved in human experiments that have measured blocking of all respiratory droplets,4 with cloth masks in some studies performing on par with surgical masks as barriers for source control.”

The also list several studies proving the above statements – all quite obvious.

Findings on where spreading is coming from – this study notes restaurants, gyms, hotels, and houses are among 10% of locations but account for 85% of the infection! They also conclude that lower income – though they say disadvantaged racial – without proving it was social economics vs race – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3

“Derived from cell phone data, our

mobility networks map the hourly movements of 98 million people from

neighborhoods (census block groups, or CBGs) to points of interest (POIs) such as

restaurants and religious establishments, connecting 57k CBGs to 553k POIs with 5.4

billion hourly edges. We show that by integrating these networks, a relatively simple

SEIR model can accurately ft the real case trajectory, despite substantial changes in

population behavior over time. Our model predicts that a small minority of

“superspreader” POIs account for a large majority of infections and that restricting

maximum occupancy at each POI is more efective than uniformly reducing mobility.”

“10% of POIs accounted for 85% (95% CI, 83%–87%) of the predicted infections at POIs”

“Certain categories of POIs also contributed far more to infections (e.g., full-service restaurants, hotels),”

“lower-income CBGs in the Chicago

metro area had 27% more POI visits per capita than higher-income

CBGs. Category-level differences in visit patterns partially explained

the infection disparities within each category: e.g., lower-income CBGs

made substantially more visits per capita to grocery stores than did

higher-income CBGs (Figure S3), and consequently experienced more

predicted infections at that category (Figure S2)”

“POIs frequented by lower-income CBGs tended to

be smaller and more crowded in the mobility data”

On an economic basis it likely makes sense that lower income areas have/need higher density as margins per customer likely lower. I don’t think this is race – but socioeconomics. Scary to see full service restaurants so far out there. They should probably delve into that to see if some restaurants are better than others and what can one do to get better – e.g. increase/modify ventilation?

US death 1420 with confirmation 136K

Missouri lead the US death at 142 for the first time. Both IL and TX saw confirmations 12K+

Big death reporting dispersion over the US

TX confirmation was very dispersed. LA leading in death followed by Cook and Maricopa

Cook IL still shows no sign of slowdown in the ramp of confirmation and death. El Paso TX shows a leveling.

Most European countries now starting to show a leveling off of confirmations and deaths

Covid19mathblog.com

I am not sure why so much euphoria on the press release by Pfizer – it is good news – but not really significant reporting in the grand scheme of things. They fail to release the medical study to any medical journal. If you look into the math they supplied 44K tested – 94 infected – 8 with vaccine. Lets just assume they split the test so 22K had the placebo. The highest infection rate of this sample is super small given the confirmation per capita seen in some US county. IF we assume ALL infected ex known vaccine (94-8) came from the placebo group then you have 88/22000=0.4% confirmed/capita. This compared to LA 14.4% Harris County TX 3.86%. A potential reason for such low confirmation rate is they tested healthy young demographic vs. who would be really taking this vaccine first.

More 2020 depressing news – not only getting covid and being quarantined for 14 days was bad enough – but it would seem mental issues could prolong as a survivor of covid-19 – but I suspect the surrounding of jobless debt etc…wouldn’t help. https://nypost.com/2020/11/09/many-covid-19-patients-later-develop-mental-illness-study-finds/

“Twenty percent of coronavirus patients later develop a new mental illness, according to a study”

“The study group was twice as likely to suffer from a new mental illness than other groups of patients during the same period, researchers said.”

Deaths below 1K again – top country is France at 559 – Confirmation still crazily rising in the US at 120K

Number 1 death state Michigan. NY had a revision in death of almost 200! Illinois continues to lead in confirmation at an astronomical figure of 10573!

Almost half of Illnois death came from Cook County IL

Even though Michigan lead in deaths – county wise they made #5 with Ken Michigan. Leading county for death San Diego at 30.

Testing in Cook Il has increased – https://ccdphcd.shinyapps.io/covid19/ IF you graph with just 1 test result per person it’s a shocking 27.5% positivity rate! ISOLATE THE REGION – if this is true.

I think there is something wrong with John Hopkins reporting at the same time. IF we assume 30% positive and you believe the data above that peak testing at 7K a day then its only 2100 confirmation not the near 4K being reported by John Hopkins data…..grrrrr

Cook IL is becoming too much of an outlier in the dataset – but if people don’t look it on a county basis you wont see it.

No major trend change in Europe