Many countries have been back to school for quite some time – Germany, Israel, and Thailand since beginning of summer. Overall it has not been the super spreader event as many have alluded to in the US. Nor does the current data show that to be the case. However there are things one can do to make it so it wont be like that.

Thailand has done an amazing job of keeping deaths to a minimum. Lessons need to be learned from them. As I scrolled the various Thailand School articles – one thing I do notice is windows in every classroom. Modern day enclosed buildings are not what you will see for their classrooms. They are doing mask, temp testing, and table separations. https://www.unicef.org/thailand/stories/school-reopening-how-teachers-and-students-are-adjusting-new-normal-thailand

“All children are required to have their temperature checked before getting on the bus, register with their teachers and clean their hands with alcohol-based hand sanitizers at the school’s screening point. Some teachers stand by with hand-held thermometers to check the temperatures of children accompanied by their parents. The children then clean their hands with hand sanitizer and receive a stamp reading “PASS” on their wrist, after which they are allowed to enter classrooms.”

“They wore masks while studying, desks were set further apart, and morning activities were cancelled to prevent large gatherings. All of these practices were implemented in line with the safe school guidelines and teacher manuals developed by UNICEF, the Ministry of Education and Ministry of Public Health, with assistance from the Government of Japan.”

Germany is noting that they are opening windows. https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN25S4L4?__twitter_impression=true

“Doors and windows are kept open as much as possible.”

Here in the Houston area CFISD for the rooms with access to outdoors are opening them on a timed basis. If this continues into the winter expect energy use to rise.

US deaths below 500 – but it would seem the media is all focused on confirmation.

FL leads death with 54 – Wisconsin leads in confirmation at 7K!

Unlike most states with huge confirmations there is no leading county in Wisconsin. In fact the leading county is Cook IL at 1286 which is also tied with Miami-Dade as the leading death county at 7

For all the negative publicity in confirmation the Big 4 counties confirmations are low – you have to go back to early June the last time confirmations were this low in those counties

All these new states showing confirmation – it correlates very well with lowering temps – they need to open up the windows – pay more on electricity/gas – where is this message?

Overall confirmations are rising and so is our testing. The positive thing is last time we observed confirmation rising the deaths did not follow even though we were told that it would happen. Hopefully this time we can continue the trend of reducing deaths.

On a world view confirmations rise but we have maintained deaths so earlier extrapolations never occurred – as confirmations are 5X they are since April but deaths are actually less now than that time period.

Covid19mathblog.com

Comparing death distribution needs to be done at known country not on global scale as other factors from healthcare access to quality of care becomes a big part of the equation. Below is just for the US. Source https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics and https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

The other thing to understand is the metrics used and the realization we don’t know we can only infer during the crisis. Perhaps afterwards through more statistical sampling we can eventually calculate a fatality rate (death/confirmation). Both are growing in time and confirmations are very uncertain given asymptomatic carrier so what you will see is infection fatality ratio (IFR). This is the estimated one where they try to guesstimate how many are infected (denominator) but remember only recently have they even concluded it is airborne so how would they really understand how many are infected. Given the massive testing going on in the US we are seeing significant confirmations but relative low deaths as we are testing beyond those that are severely sick. Currently 8 million confirmed with 129 million test – so far the curve has been very flat for quite sometime. I would presume these test INCLUDE potential asymptomatic carriers?

Then when we do compare it to the flu – the flu mortality rate at least by the CDC is only focused on symptomatic illness – https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

I presume asymptomatic flu is possible?

Certainly can be very confusing so ultimately most historians like to refer to the death per population as records and questions of confirmed are not part of the equation.

Very low reporting with US at only 388 deaths

FL leads at 50

Leading US county San Bernandino CA at 23

No major change in Europe

The Global Burden of Disease report has been released for 2019 results. This report is important as it puts issues such as Covid-19 into perspective of the bigger picture. https://www.thelancet.com/gbd#2019GBDIssue

There is a lot in this report so enjoy on your free time. Below brief snippets of importance – for perspective current global deaths for covid-19 1.1 Million and rising.

“The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019).”

Largest increase risk exposures:

The particulate matter pollution is a function of growing economies (e.g. China and India) but this is being balanced with growing lifestyles and amenities.

Drug use likely a function of abused pain killers.

High fasting plasma glucose directly related Diabetes which then relates to the final growing risk – High body-mass index (BMI) – which then is our obesity epidemic.

10.8 Million deaths heart related issues! Function of lifestyle.

8.7 Million deaths from smoking! This is elective and can be changed much easier than controlling covid-19. We have come a long way with reducing smoking as can be seen in the chart below comparing 2010 to 2019

High SDI – Socio-demographic Index – are first world countries like the US. You can see environment is no longer an issue its our lifestyle choices and we have done well reducing smoking.

Changing our lifestyle not how we socialize will likely have more of an impact of LIFE than the current policies of quarantine and limited capacity.

Fauci speaks out against the Great Barrington Declaration but offers hardly any alternatives – https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-cautions-against-herd-immunity-through-widespread-infection-youre-going-wind-lot-dead-1540018

“The declaration, Fauci said, implies that state and health officials would "do nothing to block infection," like enforcing face mask mandates and social distancing measures, because the primary focus would be on creating measures to protect people in extended care facilities.

This is problematic because as much as 30 percent of the general population falls into the category of "vulnerable"—meaning they would face severe consequences if they are infected with coronavirus, including hospitalization and even death, Fauci said.”

“"So, if you think that you have the capability—which we have shown thus far we are not capable of doing that—of all of a sudden magically protecting all the obese people, the people with diabetes, the people with hypertension, the people with chronic lung disease," Fauci said, "I say, and many, many, many of my public health colleagues say, if you think you’re going to do that, you’re going to wind up with a lot of dead people.

"And that’s something we really want to avoid."”

Why not add a plan to get those 30% out of that category – Fat Sick and Nearly Dead https://www.rebootwithjoe.com/joes-films/ showed one could get out of that category in relative short time (60 days) – LA has been in lockdown since March.

Altering social habits likely harder than lifestyle – do we really want to tell people who and how many people they can talk and how long and how they socialize – https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/

“As of October 9, 2020, outdoor private gatherings are allowed under the following conditions:

Attendees must be from no more than 3 separate households

Duration should be 2 hours or less”

On the good news front – perhaps biased but at least they finally produced something – https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

“United Airlines says the risk of COVID-19 exposure onboard its aircraft is "virtually non-existent" after a new study finds that when masks are worn there is only a 0.003% chance particles from a passenger can enter the passenger’s breathing space who is sitting beside them.

The study, conducted by the Department of Defense in partnership with United Airlines, was published Thursday. They ran 300 tests in a little over six months with a mannequin on a United plane.”

“"99.99% of those particles left the interior of the aircraft within six minutes," United Airlines Chief Communication Officer Josh Earnest told ABC News. "It indicates that being on board an aircraft is the safest indoor public space, because of the unique configuration inside an aircraft that includes aggressive ventilation, lots of airflow."”

“the International Air Transport Association (IATA) released new research, saying the risk of contracting the virus on a plane appears to be "in the same category as being struck by lightning."”

This actually PROVES/SUBSTANTIATES my point that there is a mechanical solutions to our issues – lets get going Mechanical Engineers – modify/adapt/retrofit existing HVAC systems to reduce viral load similar to an airplane – its not rocket science!

2 Day or less still not occurring for many people – perhaps a monetary incentive will change this – also we now know how much money the testing facilities are generating from this article – https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/16/covid-testing-medicare-cut-payments-labs-slow-turnaround/3677717001/

“The agency overseeing Medicare will pay labs $100 per coronavirus test completed on a high-volume machine within two days of collecting a specimen. Labs that take longer will get only $75 per test next year, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.”

130 Million test in US so we potentially spent $13 Billion and rising on testing!

US leads but only 711

Missouri leads death again – but the last time that happened they had a negative day later

The leading county is Miami-Dade at 17

Harris county fatality rates for the latest confirmation adjusted for 3 week delay is less than 0.5%

No change on Europe front they are still confirming and deaths are not abating.

Covid19mathblog.com – Winter is coming….and its not the white walkers you have to fear – germophobes do not watch – https://twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1317242187793530882?s=09

They note that contagion risk increase in dry indoor conditions in the winter time! Humidifiers and Open Windows are suggested! MORE electricity and gas consumption!

Ugh its still 2020 – https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/10/06/2001046117

We could be going from severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS to Swine acute diarrhea syndrome SADS?

Besides the awful conditions of our food system – it can bring some nasty diseases to society – We need to do something to change this.

“Infection with the novel swine acute diarrhea syndrome coronavirus (SADS-CoV) was associated with acute diarrhea and vomiting with 90% mortality rates in piglets less than 5 d of age”

“we demonstrate human susceptibility potential by demonstrating efficient SADS-CoV infectivity and growth in primary human cells, derived from both the lung and intestine (33). Moreover, efficient SADS-CoV replication in the primary intestinal cells also support an earlier hypothesis that some emerging bat coronaviruses may initially replicate efficiently in the human alimentary track and stroma, before evolving efficient replication phenotypes in the lung (25).”

“SADS-CoV also has a broad host range and replicates efficiently in primary human lung and intestinal cells. Due to the variability in infection efficiency seen between various donors of human primary cells, it is likely that in the case of a spillover, we would see a range of SADS-CoV severity in human patients. Swine are known amplifying hosts for several human pathogens, providing an infrastructure for the possibility of future emergence events. To date, there is no evidence of virus replication in humans (10). However, the ability of SADS-CoV to replicate in human primary cells indicates the potential for spillover of SADS-CoV into humans.”

“With the 2019 reemergence of this virus in the swine population in China (81), continued surveillance of swine is critical. Additionally, individuals in the swine industry should be regularly evaluated for evidence of infection in order to reduce the potential of outbreaks. Consistent with the phylogenetic distance in the S glycoproteins (Fig. 1A), little, if any, significant levels of cross-neutralizing human or swine herd immunity appear to exist between the contemporary alphacoronavirus tested and the SADS-CoV. While recognizing an unexplored potential for T cell contributions and given this collection of phenotypes, we suggest the need for continued One Health surveillance (82, 83), screening of swine workers in outbreak settings, BSL3 containment and that the development and testing of candidate vaccines and drugs should be prioritized to protect the health of human populations as well as economically important domesticated livestock.”

Seriously this could be way worse than covid-19 in terms of potential to impact the youth! Its time to make the change in our food system sooner than later.

Well London is going into lockdown – https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2700O3

“- London, the world’s international financial capital, will enter a tighter COVID-19 lockdown from midnight on Friday as Prime Minister Boris Johnson seeks to tackle a swiftly accelerating second coronavirus wave.”

“The main impact of the move to "high" is that people cannot meet other households socially indoors in any setting, for example at home or in a restaurant. Travel should be reduced where possible, Hancock said.”

“Britain’s move to halt socialising in its capital means that London and Paris – Europe’s two richest cities – are shortly to be living under the shadow of state-imposed restrictions as the second wave of the pandemic spreads through Europe.

President Emmanuel Macron announced night curfews for four weeks from Saturday in Paris and other major cities.”

“In a show of defiance, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said he was unwilling to impose a local lockdown that would sacrifice swathes of the city’s economy without proper financial support from central government.

"They are willing to sacrifice jobs and businesses here to try and save them elsewhere," Burnham said. "The north is fed up of being pushed around."

Good luck in policing this without China like rules and regulation….Most health and environmental policies are quite regressive in reality. The wealthy can buy all the necessities so their last fringe purchase is creating a healthier environment (whether pollution or viruses/bacteria) and the only way to do this is to regulate society. Whereas the general population would like to have the fringe concern but they are too busy focusing on daily living requirements and the odds of death from poverty/malnutrition way overwhelms the odds from diseases and pollutions – hence the 1970’s occurred in the US and the current pollution trends in China – it was a concerted decision to weigh the value of obtaining necessities and weighing the health risk. It is a luxury to be able to focus on the environment – basics of the individuals need to be covered else you will get mass revolt at some point. As noted in the data there excess deaths occurring that is result of choices in “preventing” covid-19. Do nothing is not a good choice – but do something better as you learn more is always an option.

No country above 1K – US leads at 883

FL leads at 94

LA leads all county at 21 – El Paso TX has a surge of confirmation even though school is closed 1591

Big 4 counties – added avg state temp – not the hump in temps in hum in confirmation. LA seems to have other issues. Having a lockdown for LA is not helping.

Both France and UK are now over 100 deaths a day on the 7 day MA

Covid19mathblog.com

Well HCQ on a cost benefit analysis did perform better than Remdesiver, Lopinavir, and Interferon given the conclusion from WHO megastudy as they conclude they all did not demonstrate any mortality improvement – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1

“These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay. The mortality findings contain most of the randomized evidence on Remdesivir and Interferon, and are consistent with meta-analyses of mortality in all major trials.”

Looks like marginally HCQ performed better than Remdesivir

On other more depressing 2020 news – excess deaths in 2020 ONLY 67% can be attributed to covid-19 – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761?guestAccessKey=92828e1e-363a-491b-83af-ec3ce0cde3f6&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=101220

“Between March 1 and August 1, 2020, 1 336 561 deaths occurred in the US, a 20% increase over expected deaths (1 111 031 [95% CI, 1 110 364 to 1 111 697]). The 10 states with the highest per capita rate of excess deaths were New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Arizona, Mississippi, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Michigan. The states with the highest per capita rate of excess deaths changed from week to week (Video). The increase in absolute deaths in these states relative to expected values ranged from 22% in Rhode Island and Michigan to 65% in New York (Table). Three states with the highest death rates (New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts) accounted for 30% of US excess deaths but had the shortest epidemics (ED90 < 10 weeks). States that experienced acute surges in April (and reopened later) had shorter epidemics that returned to baseline in May, whereas states that reopened earlier experienced more protracted increases in excess deaths that extended into the summer (Figure).

Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. Joinpoint analyses revealed an increase in deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19, with 2 reaching statistical significance. US mortality rates for heart disease increased between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 0.2-10.2]), driven by the spring surge in COVID-19 cases. Mortality rates for Alzheimer disease/dementia increased twice, between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 7.3 [95% CI, 2.9-11.8]) and between weeks ending June 6 and July 25 (APC, 1.5 [95% CI, 0.8-2.3]), the latter coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states.”

Covid-19 super spreading event is a function of our behaviors – in regions it is cold we go inside when temps get below 50 in hot regions when temps start going above 70 we go inside….No coincidence we have hot and cold states given the diversity of the US. It is this behavior that caused the massive spreads and our inability to execute simple mechanical solutions from forcing more outdoor air (open windows/ decrease economizer) to putting better filters in HVAC (MERV 13 to special deactivating coated filters). All the craze for hand sanitizers all for nothing – solving root causes is how problems are solved. Inventing a miracle cure or vaccine does nothing in the mean time that simple logic could have done.

No country above 1K – India leading at 895

Missouri looks like they initiated a revision to there leading death toll – today -84 – leading state is FL at 141

Leading US county is LA at 22

Belgium and Spain have some issues – death rates rising

Covid19mathblog.com

Data spin – this one had me thinking on what possibly they could mean and the angle that is playing – the article wants to conclude city living is safe if not safer than living in the rurals based on statistics.…https://fortune.com/2020/10/14/covid-coronavirus-city-density-nyc-south-dakota/

“A key measure of COVID-19’s spread in the U.S. has been decidedly weird for more than a week. Day after day, the states with the highest infection rates—new cases per 100,000 residents—have been North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, among the least densely populated states in America. With social distancing critical to fighting COVID-19, how can this be? The emerging answer is significant for individuals, employers, and policymakers”

Hmmm how about temperature? People going inside and not ventilating their facilities to “save” energy.

Compared to NY

It is true per capita is rising – but its not beyond the level of other hotspot in history – and by making the denominator per capita you are removing some density by default. So IF confirmation is the same level on a per capita basis as another place – still the odds of bumping into an individual is much less so to argue living in the city is safer is mind boggling.

Another food for thought – is the level of socialization whether you are in a city or country would likely be similar? Church Sundays? Family gatherings etc… those things don’t change too much as a society. As noted several times its not a stranger you are obtaining the covid from – its someone you socialize/work with. Viral load takes time to build up and as long as you are healthy it can be quite some time. It is interesting to see confirmation per capita rising for Bismark area above the Boston Area – but its still well below AZ and LA.

Certainly human behavior has a huge component on how things spread which policies cannot seem to control in country as such. Education and prevention is likely the best route for a society like ours. China command and control works well.

Bad news on the vaccine front both Eli Lilly and Johnson & Johnson paused – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/us-pauses-eli-lillys-trial-of-a-coronavirus-antibody-treatment-over-safety-concerns.html

“Eli Lilly’s late-stage trial of its leading monoclonal antibody treatment for the coronavirus has been paused by U.S. health regulators over potential safety concerns, the company confirmed to CNBC on Tuesday.”

“The news comes less than 24 hours after Johnson & Johnson confirmed that its late-stage coronavirus vaccine trial was paused after a participant reported an “adverse event” the day before.”

Turning to the school front:

El Paso limited school is not supporting the closing of school as they are rising more than all the other counties and they are the least in person county. Ft. Bend at 100% no issue so far.

FL no issue so far for those that are more open

Not a very good spread in CA – but San Diego with 10% vs. 0 Santa Clara shows no major divergence per history before opening

Stark OH seeing a rise but this is 35+ days since open – time will tell for Mahonning. Lorrain is showing signs of rising confirmation though no in school

Boulder has pulled back from all the confirmation but they had the least in school – Adams is rising since 20 days after opening – they should check in with El Paso to see if there are operational differences?

Centre PA did open more than Daugphin and did see a rise in confirmation – and just now saw additional deaths – but Dauphin actually saw a big spike in deaths regardless of school being closed.

US still on top but under 1K deaths

New US state leader Missouri at 120 deaths – TX still reporting high confirmations

St Louis leading county at 33 deaths – LA county leads confirmation at 1266

Lots of anti-sweden coming out – but they fail to ignore the initial spike as a function of failed nursing home….currently the lowest death per capita – https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

Covid19mathblog.com

Fatality rate and the fallacy of that math: As noted in the VERY beginning of this pandemic fatality rate is hard to understand in the midst of the pandemic as the denominator is ever changing (those confirmed). The population measure crude mortality is easier to grasp given the denominator is at least understood (population). We do know that covid-19 is virulent (easily spread) – with many asymptomatic which therefore likely would skew the denominator of the fatality rate. What we cannot deny is those that die. We can see and know the age distribution of deaths. As noted https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/10/covid-10-9-20/ the age distribution of covid-19 deaths are eerily similar to the common flu in the US – “covid 65+(79%) 50-64 (15.6%) https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographicsvs flu 65+(78%) 50-64 (16.6%) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html – amazingly close I was really not expecting it to be this close!” So we have 95% of the death in the 50+ category. Just for those who are concern it represents the population profile this is not the case – 50+ in US = 34% – so this is not the reason.

Then you will get journals and discussion talking about fatality rate like they really understand the denominator to deduce the infection fatality rate (IFR). They use this calculation to let the world know that covid-19 is “worse” than the flu https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5352

“Because many cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are asymptomatic, generalizable data on the true number of persons infected are lacking. Mortality rates therefore are calculated from confirmed cases, which overestimates the infection fatality ratio (IFR). To calculate a true IFR, population prevalence data are needed from large geographic areas where reliable death data also exist.”

“To account for all infections, we added the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the testing period and noninstitutionalized COVID-19 deaths into the denominator.”

“In comparison, the ratio is approximately 2.5 times greater than the estimated IFR for seasonal influenza, 0.8% (1 in 125), among those aged 65 years and older (5).”

Even the above study noted the asymptomatic issue but seems to ignore it in their math. 2.5X IFR for seasonal influenza for those 65+ IF true IF IFR is supposed to measure lethality of disease – why would the disease be such age discriminatory? Why would there not be a flattening in the distribution of deaths by age? How can it be the exact same as the regular flu but one can still conclude its 2.5X IFR more than flu? I don’t understand the math – but maybe because I am no expert.

This article tries to extrapolate the CDC analysis of antibodies – for which we already discuss many can nullify covid using standard t-cell response – https://reason.com/2020/09/29/the-latest-cdc-estimates-of-covid-19s-infection-fatality-rate-vary-dramatically-with-age/?amp

“overall COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR)—the share of Americans infected by the virus who will die as a result—is about 0.65 percent.”

“According to those "best estimates," which were published this month as an update to the CDC’s COVID-19 Planning Scenarios, the IFR is 0.02 percent for 20-to-49-year-olds and 0.5 percent for 50-to-69-year-olds. The CDC did not include an IFR estimate for people 80 or older. But judging from crude case fatality rates (deaths divided by confirmed cases), the IFR for people in that age group would be substantially higher than 5.4 percent.

The CDC’s latest death counts indicate that the crude case fatality rate is around 28 percent for patients 85 or older and 18 percent for 75-to-84-year-olds. That rate falls to about 8 percent for 65-to-74-year-olds, 2 percent for 50-to-64-year-olds, 0.6 percent for patients in their 40s, 0.2 percent for patients in their 30s, 0.06 percent for patients in their late teens and early 20s, 0.02 percent for 5-to-17-year-olds, and 0.04 percent for children 4 and younger.

The CDC’s overall IFR estimate implies that COVID-19, while not nearly as lethal as many people initially feared, is about six times as deadly as the seasonal flu.”

This analysis shows 6X – once again IFR is supposed to measure if infected whats the odd of dying – question what is infected? IF a PCR test shows positive is that infected? PCR test can show people have covid but not be infectious as noted before. How many asymptomatic carriers are “infected” – being a carrier default = infected? Lets assume they all fall under infected once again WHY would the age distribution at least be more distributed IF fatality is 6X. Why will no one talk about how the death distribution of covid and flu are very eerily the same? I am not reducing the seriousness as clearly 215K death and rising vs highest seasonal flu death (2017-2018 46-95K) is a real concern. But IF you assume the IFR is the same or near seasonal flu then the root cause of more death is the virulent nature – therefore to attack the problem to get back to the level of seasonal flu is not necessarily just a drug or vaccine – but mechanical solutions to reduce viral load to stop the spread. Also in terms of fatality concern it is the elderly just like the flu – no need to lockdown the rest of society. More focused needed on nursing homes as they contain the largess of deaths – even noted in the first study “nursing home residents were not tested, they represented 54.9% of Indiana’s deaths.” THE ENTIRE STATE 55%! This is almost criminal mismanagement – same story in the East coast states – even Sweden where they are investigating criminal charges.

A history lesson of mass vaccine was also done during a previous election year – https://www.history.com/.amp/news/swine-flu-rush-vaccine-election-year-1976

“When the US Government Tried to Fast-Track a Flu Vaccine

More than a quarter of the nation was inoculated in 1976 for a pandemic that never materialized.”

“U.S. Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare F. David Mathews projected 1 million Americans would die in the 1976 flu season unless action was taken. Citing the “strong possibility” of a swine flu pandemic, CDC Director David Sencer recommended an unprecedented plan: a mass vaccination of U.S. citizens.”

“Ford lost his re-election bid in the midst of the immunization program that, with the benefit of hindsight, turned out to be unnecessary when a repeat of 1918—or even 1957 or 1968—never materialized. “When lives are at stake, it is better to err on the side of overreaction than underreaction,” wrote Millar and Sencer, who lost his job months later. “In 1976, the federal government wisely opted to put protection of the public first.””

Financial and people’s health destruction in our health system due to covid – https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/cutting-through-the-covid-19-surgical-backlog#

“The financial impact of this reduction in elective procedure volume, which typically drives a disproportionate share of revenue and margin for hospitals, caused an estimated $200 billion in financial losses for hospitals and health systems between March and June 2020, before accounting for relief funds”

“The findings revealed that US providers surveyed saw a roughly 35 percent decrease in surgical volumes from March 2020 to July 2020 compared to the year prior, and on average expect to remain below historical volumes for the remainder of 2020 (Exhibit 1).11 12 Based on respondents’ projections for the remainder of 2020, hospitals could end the year with operating room volumes at around 20 percent below the previous year, equivalent to around 2.5 months of historical volume.”

“The root cause of the elective procedure backlog is likely due to a temporal mismatch between supply and demand. This mismatch could result in excess hospital capacity (and worsening financial performance) as patients defer care, and excess demand in the future as patients return to facilities. As patients continue to report an increasing comfort in returning to in-person care, respondents report a variety of strategies (Exhibit 4) to address or prepare for a potential increase in demand.24”

US back on top but at least under 1K

FL leading in deaths – TX big jump in confirmation

Interestingly the leading county in the nation Jefferson County Colorado with 30 deaths

Confirmations are still rising in Europe but so far deaths have not crossed more than 100/day yet in any region other than Spain.

Covid19mathblog.com

The golden-standard trail for a drug is finished from Remdesivir – certainly if money wasn’t a concern you would take it – but given the relatively slight improvement IF you had to pay for it – it may just not be something you would take….. https://theconversation.com/remdesivir-study-finally-published-an-expert-in-critical-care-medicine-gives-us-his-verdict-147862

“The trial follows a gold-standard design of being double blind, randomised and controlled, and like most trials published in top medical journals, at first glance the outcomes are fairly impressive. They found that patients receiving the drug improved and recovered more quickly, were less likely to progress to severe disease, were discharged from hospital sooner, and had a lower death rate of 11.4% compared with 15.2% in patients receiving “usual” treatment.

Based on these positive findings, it would be tempting to conclude that all patients who have the disease should receive the drug, but since it costs around US$2,340 (£1,795) to treat one patient, and is likely to be in short supply in the UK for the foreseeable future, the question warrants a more considered analysis.”

“Remdesivir has not been around long enough to have a track record for safety, and the reports of side-effects in COVID patients continue to grow.”

“When we unpick the data and look at analyses of smaller groups (subgroup analyses), the only patients for whom benefit was conclusively demonstrated were those who were less severely ill and receiving only supplemental oxygen rather than being on a ventilator.”

“Another interesting subgroup analysis showed that patients receiving dexamethasone showed added benefit with the addition of remdesivir, which is good news”

“By prescribing remdesivir on top of applying the best treatment available, one in ten patients will continue to deteriorate and die. Remdesivir is not the magic bullet. If one exists, it has yet to be designed.”

The worse flu season over the last decade was 2017-2018 where 39-58 Million infected with only 46-95K death – https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

Once again we showed the age profile of death for covid and flu is the same. IF we are to extrapolate this to mean near equivalent lethality but more virulent – then we are talking about 102-152 million infected. This means we have a long ways for confirmation – currently only confirmed 7.2 Million! Do we really want to pay for that many test – assume $10 a test we have to spend almost 1 billion more. Statistically sampling similar to polling will result in reasonable results without paying for $1 billion for test that won’t change your response.

Reported death is really dwindling – US at 317 France and Spain making up a lot of the confirmations.

FL leads death at 48. New confirmation leaders TN and IL

LA starting to look like confirmations may start rising

Had to double my limit from countries with death 2k to 4k….Russia is still looking quite good if you believe the numbers – decent amount of testing yet death per capita low with a decent amount of confirmed per captia.

No expert in this field – but an expert in evaluating data – data is data and interpretation of data involves logic which as noted cant be hacked (attribute E. Snowden). WHO reverses stance on lockdown as the data has clearly shown lockdowns don’t necessarily work https://amp.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-condemning-lockdowns/news-story/f2188f2aebff1b7b291b297731c3da74

“The World Health Organisation has backflipped on its original COVID-19 stance after calling for world leaders to stop locking down their countries and economies.

Dr. David Nabarro from the WHO appealed to world leaders yesterday, telling them to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method” of the coronavirus.

He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved.”

““We in the World Health Organisation do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Dr Nabarro told The Spectator.

“The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.”

Dr Nabarro’s main criticism of lockdowns involved the global impact, explaining how poorer economies that had been indirectly affected.”

“They created a petition, called the Great Barrington Declaration, which said that lockdowns were doing “irreparable damage.”

“As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists, we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection,” read the petition.

“Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health.”

The petition has had 12,000 signatures so far.

It was authored by Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford, Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, and Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University.

When asked about the petition, Dr Nabarro had only good things to say. “Really important point by Professor Gupta,” he said.”

Adaptation makes the human race so strong. Initially lockdown was a legitimate knee jerk reaction – but the data is clearly showing lockdown likely do more harm for various reasons and do not achieve the goals set forth (reduction of transmission) without superior government oversight not available in many free and less technological develop countries. We noted this in the very beginning that Sweden MAY be right. Reported early and acknowledged that the high jump in deaths in Sweden was attributable to fail oversight at nursing home which needed to not impact the Quarantine/lockdown logic as this is solved not by more lockdown but better management at those facilities (https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/5/covid-5-13-20/) The spread is not generally from a stranger but someone you spend time with indoor. The ability of a free govt to stop relatives and friends getting together is limited. We need to recognize that solutions can come from re-engineer the ventilation system where gathering is taking place – increase fresh air – better filtration – properly wear a mask in the setting. Also the knowledge that comorbidities increases the odds of death AND infection – the more healthier you are the higher viral load you can take before becoming infected. Instead of paying $1K+ on pills make society healthier which is likely more doable than locking people up. Lockdown is creating more harm than good. China control and management of people through required phone tracing allows them to continue to push that policy. Unless we want to do that we cannot expect lockdowns to work as effectively. With 6+ months of data US state and county data shows that there is no strong correlation for lockdown and effectiveness in terms of limiting the spread.

Interesting report from the UK govt – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923668/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_40.pdf

Can you guess what happened week 36?

Temps for lows starting showing below 50….

Currently unlike the US the school setting is an apparent issue for UK. Perhaps the weather in the US hasn’t kicked in – hopefully school districts have done to their best of their ability to get as much fresh air into the buildings. However note that this spread breakdown is not so much different than other causes of ARI (e.g. flu)

Interesting to see equally from primary and secondary – I would initially think secondary and college more due to socializing – but this may be skewed as not based on population category more in primary?

Its happening at homes as noted several times….

Not from strangers

Associated events from exposure – once again centered on indoor areas

Age big driver in going to hospital and eventually ICU

Positive thing excess death is limited of recently if not negative indicating a expedited death of only a few months

No country above 1K again

FL leads death at 178

Miami-Dade leads all counties at 30

Big 4 – LA probably had the most restrictive yet they are the most confirmed per capita 12.6%

Covid19mathblog.com

If you are not going to do it right – just don’t do it – sounds like a parenting line? Well this goes with the mask wearing – if you don’t cover your nose part then why wear it? https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/why-wearing-a-face-mask-halfway-can-be-dangerous

“According to CDC guidelines, face masks are meant to cover both the nose and the mouth and fit securely under the chin. While most people who mask-up do wear them correctly, that’s not always the case. Some people prefer to wear their masks pulled down so it only covers their mouth, leaving their nose exposed. But this can defeat a key purpose of wearing a mask. Research from several scientists have demonstrated that the nose is highly vulnerable to COVID-19 infection.  ”

“Nature Medicine, explained that nasal cells in particular contain high levels of the proteins that SARS-CoV-2 attaches to in order to enter the body.”

“Because the nose is a main pathway for the virus, Sungnak says it’s a possible explanation for why COVID-19 spread so efficiently early in the pandemic. ”

“They determined that the highest concentrations of these proteins are located in are in the nose, instead of the deep lungs as they had anticipated. After exposing tissue samples to SARS-CoV-2, the team determined that the nose was the most fertile infection point of the entire respiratory system. “

“Boucher says it’s clear that protecting the nose is extremely important to protecting the lungs and respiratory tract from COVID-19. Based on the findings of his study, wearing a mask underneath the nose is completely ineffective in protecting someone’s respiratory system. ”

Finally reveled the cost of Regeneron in this article which highlights a very big concern as the MONEY influence is real – no different than remdesivir we are talking thousands per dose! Probably a lot more cost effective and you get more bang for your buck being healthy. So much money at stake – https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/as-trump-touts-his-great-covid-drugs-pharma-cash-flows-to-biden-not-him

“Regeneron, Gilead, Lilly and the industry as a whole are sending more money elsewhere. Reversing a trend in which contributions from drugmakers’ political committees and their employees have gone largely to Republican candidates for president and Congress, so far for 2020 the industry has tilted toward Democrats.”

“In a year when complaints about high prescription drug prices have been overshadowed by the pandemic, donors with ties to pharma manufacturers have given around $976,000 to Biden, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics. That’s nearly three times the pharma contributions to Trump, who recently switched his tune from complaining about “rip-off” prescription prices to describing drug firms as “great companies.””

“Of $177,000 given so far to 2020 federal candidates by Regeneron’s employees and political action committee, four-fifths have gone to Democrats, including $35,203 to Biden, according to CRP.”

“A spokesperson for Regeneron, which has applied for emergency use authorization to bypass the Food and Drug Administration approval process for its drug, declined to comment on campaign donations and said the company will continue clinical trials.

The drug is expected to cost thousands of dollars per dose. “You’re going to get them for free,” Trump said of the COVID-19 drugs he took. The government has agreed to make initial doses of Regeneron’s antibody treatment “available to the American people at no cost,” the company says.

But details of the contract, including the price, remained secret. In any event, if patients get the drug at no direct cost, “it doesn’t mean they’re not paying for it,” said James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International, a nonprofit that works to expand access to medical technology. “They’re just paying for it through taxes.””

So great it will be “free” – lucky we can print money to achieve this great goal.

NY is really going to be hurting. They really need to find a root cause analysis to their overwhelming death counts as it will only create more pain and slower path to get back to normal. They need to be prepared to admit they did wrong in order to move forward – cannot continue to place the blame of federal govt though I am sure they have their faults but it cannot be the main culprit else other states would be just as bad. Internally NY has limited students going to school which as a society will be destructive in the longterm at least at the lower level grades – https://nypost.com/2020/10/10/ghost-town-in-person-attendance-dwindles-at-nyc-schools/

“In-person attendance at some Big Apple schools is so low, instead of students, teachers expect to see tumbleweeds rolling down the hallways, staffers told The Post.”

As noted so far the super spreader is not schools – we will continue to update the analysis weekly – https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/10/covid-10-6-20/

In addition NY sends all travelers this warning –

“A travel enforcement operation will commence at airports across the state to help ensure travelers are following the state’s quarantine restrictions. As part of the enforcement operation, enforcement teams will be stationed at airports statewide to meet arriving aircrafts at gates and greet disembarking passengers to request proof of completion of the State Department of Health traveler form, which is being distributed to passengers by airlines prior to, and upon boarding or disembarking flights to New York State.

All out-of-state travelers from designated states must complete the form upon entering New York. Travelers who leave the airport without completing the form will be subject to a $2,000 fine and may be brought to a hearing and ordered to complete mandatory quarantine. Travelers coming to New York from designated states through other means of transport, including trains and cars, must fill out the form online.”

The list of designated states as of 10/6/20 –

Alabama

Alaska

Arkansas

Colorado

Delaware

Florida

Georgia

Guam

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Mexico

North Carolina

North Dakota

Oklahoma

Puerto Rico

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

If coming from any of those states – I called the hotline and confirmed they are requiring you to stay in Hotel for your entire stay till the 14th day – if you stay under 14 day stay in your hotel – what is the point in coming to NY to stay in your hotel? Seriously? Say goodbye to coming to NYC….say goodbye to NYC budgets…..

Ready for the next shopping item for safety – https://microclimate.com/pages/air-detail

“From Uber to airline, AIR by MicroClimate™ will keep you comfortable the whole trip. AIR filters both inlet air and outlet air through HEPA filters that are in front of and behind our fans. AIR’s acrylic visor enables an unobstructed view of the face. The user can also wear glasses without interference. The fabric inside and around the neck is lightweight and washable.”

We can all feel like Matt Damon living on Mars but here on earth! I think I am going to wait for the white version! For $199 better than $1000+ for a drug that may or may not work….

Added recovered field – but this is suspect. Calculated the current infected by Taking Confirmed – Recovered – Death (assuming those that died was categorized in confirmed)

CA leading the US

LA leading all US counties at 27

All good signs for the big 4

Spain avg 120 deaths a day peak was 866