Covid19mathblog.com

There are certainly exaggerated claims on both sides of the aisle. The recent one I came across is the definition of antivaxxer on webster dictionary and the concern of the definition change- https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-034481134066 . Language is an interesting concept – hence I prefer numbers. Word definitions do change and for a long time may not be consistent with what is shown in a dictionary. In the context of antivaxxer even though this was used way back in 2018 as noted from wayback machine – https://web.archive.org/web/20181125060933/https:/www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anti-vaxxer I am not sure if it really was absorbed into society as defined in the dictionary. There is history to this as common words today we use are not in the same context – such as naughty – historically defined as immoral and evil – I don’t think we mean that when we say our kids/pets have been naughty. Meat used to mean any solid food – now its held in high regards as just animal flesh so much so there are lawsuits and laws being developed to argue against the use of meat for plant based food. https://ideas.ted.com/20-words-that-once-meant-something-very-different/

I would contend the context of antivaxxer in society view is one who is an extremist so much so they are against vaccines including those who have shown a decade plus of efficacy. To question a vaccine that just came on the market even though billions have taken it so far is not as extreme in my perspective. The billions taking it implies that a large group of followers cannot be wrong. In fact it will likely cause more of a coverup if there is something wrong. The vaccine itself may be fine, but did you consider the manufacturing process and the distribution chain and how rushed that got in supply chain constrained world. The odds of issues is a reasonable assumption. You can be right and be wrong too – perhaps for 99% of people it is great. For the <1% who perhaps have a history of zoster or issue with vascular – these people SHOULD consult a doctor! (https://academic.oup.com/rheumatology/article/60/SI/SI90/6225015?s=09 – https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.10712?s=09 )

We do not have all the answers no matter how advance you think science is now – we still have drug recalls after years of circulation. They even recall things that are used normally such as the recent jury order on J&J to pay $417 million in Johnsons Baby Powder and talcum powder case.

“Research now shows that use of talcum powder in the genital area can lead to development of ovarian cancer in women. In other cases, consumers have been diagnosed with mesothelioma cancer. Johnson & Johnson is facing more than 6,550 lawsuits and though a few have gone to trial with judgements reaching into the $ millions, most lawsuits have not been settled.”

In the current definition of webster perhaps I am an anti-vaxxer – https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anti-vaxxer – but I took the vaccine so am I a hypocritical anti-vaxxer? – but I weighed the risk/reward for myself and I took it before regulations – I think people should weigh their individual lifestyle and discuss the issues with their doctor – we cant just force people to do things to their body – particularly when now proven not to reduce transmission significantly nor help reduce hospitalizations and deaths significantly for those healthy. The healthy part is questionable that’s why you consult with a doctor! No open minded well versed person in vaccine can say that the current vaccine offers 100% safety for all – this is just not true! We need empathy and a program to help the minority that end up with a bad reaction to the vaccine. We need to minimize those that would get a bad reaction. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c41nlvy5x85o

“A woman has described how she had to learn how to talk again after she said she was left partially-paralysed due to the side effects of her Covid-19 vaccine.

Kerry Hurt, from Rotherham, suffered a stroke after undergoing surgery for a blood clot two weeks after having the AstraZeneca jab.

Mrs Hurt said it had "devastated" her life but still encouraged people to have the vaccine if they wanted it.

A government spokesperson said severe side effects were "extremely rare" and affected 1 in 100,000 people, external having first doses.”

“"We both did it for the right reasons, we’re not anti-vaccines by any means," Mr Hurt said.

Blood clots from vaccines are estimated to occur with 1 in 100,000 people over the age of 40 or those with underlying medical conditions.

For people aged under 40, the risk increases to 1 in 50,000 people.”

“The University of Oxford said the risk of having a blood clot was greater from catching Covid-19 , externalwhen compared with having a first vaccine dose.”

“Mrs Hurt said she had been trying to claim compensation from the Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme (VDPS).

She said despite her life being affected, claiming was difficult and full of "red tape", having not been updated since 1979.

"I had the vaccine thinking I was doing the right thing," she said.”

So perhaps many will say well I didn’t take the AstraZeneca – but like I said perhaps the issue isn’t the vaccine but the manufacturing and distribution – much is still unknown as noted in the article above – and no one wants to be that <1% whether its an impact from covid or vaccination.

Speaking of history we can learn from great advice back in 1918 by keeping healthy – focus on ventilation and staying away from the crowds if you are so concern about spreading and obtaining covid.

Unfortunately it may take a long time to really understand the facts – not sure why not show all the documents – not showing likely lead to more antivaxxers – https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/fda-doubles-down-asks-federal-judge?s=09

“The Court ordered the parties to submit briefs in support of their respective positions by December 6, 2021. The FDA’s brief, incredibly, doubles down. It now effectively asks to have until at least 2096 to produce the Pfizer documents. Not a typo. A total of at least 75 years.”

Another win for Pfizer – new study – potential analogy the car you bought doesn’t really drive well but since you are at the dealership we have an addon for just additional more which you don’t have to pay because the govt will cover it will solve the issue so please take it – https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-study-finds-2-pfizer-shots-fail-to-neutralize-omicron-but-booster-effective/

“People who were vaccinated with Pfizer shots six months ago or more have “almost no neutralizing ability” against the Omicron variant, while those who received boosters are in reasonably good shape, an Israeli study has found.

Prof. Gili Regev Yochay of Sheba Medical Center said that her research is “very worrisome” due to its implications for people who have had just two shots and had more than a half-year pass since their most recent vaccination — which applies to many of the world’s Pfizer vaccinees. However, it gives cause for “optimism” regarding the power of boosters to fight Omicron, albeit less effectively than they fight Delta.”

What will be the definition of an anti-booster? https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anti-booster

We are dying above the avg 2014-2019 numbers since the beginning of 2020 – we have not improved even though we have vaccinated so many in the US – over 80%+ in the 65+ category. Its time to call an audible – we need a campaign on health, ventilation, and distribution of vitamin D in hot spots.

Still showing on a state level basis more vaccinated more confirmation for the last 30 days – Temp is a way better influencer on transmission R2=0.30

Fatality rate is improved with vaccination rate R2=0.29. Temp are a poor indicator of death.

County level basis no clear indication vaccination helps death nor spread. Does show improvement for fatality rate.

Good news in general fatality rate improving across the world (30 day MA Death/Confirmed < fatality rate)

Europe perhaps past peak? The weather is starting to warm up there.

Covid is a function of Temp – northern states leading

On a 7 day basis county vaccination vs confirmation do not show a clear bifurcation to support vaccines helping with transmission.

Covid19mathblog.com

Lots to cover today – one of the things we discussed early on is covid vs. flu. No doubt covid is worse than the flu for generally all age class however its likely not AS bad as it seems with the limitations of the data. The data clearly shows its worse. The first table represents my attempt to match the season on season (age breakout was not available at that time so there is some manipulation) – vs the bottom table which is not a season on season but as of now date available https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

It’s important to not let statistics incite your fears. Though the multiplier is large the base fatality rate from flu is relatively a small number. Also the limitations of the data are as follow – 18/19 flu season – not sure if it’s the best choice? Obviously you had flu shots for 18/19 and we are compare a winter with generally no flue shot. In addition the 18/19 flu dataset clearly notes symptomatic (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html) as noted several times before we have NEVER attempted to test asymptomatic carriers of cold or flu – no one would consider “wasting” their time to get tested – now for covid many asymptomatic people are being tested – many going into hospitals for other treatments tested. Also many deaths are tested for covid – did we test for flu when someone died before? The truth IF you normalize behavior of testing and confirmations perhaps lies in between the table above – nonetheless worse than the flu therefore rightly deserves more attention than the flu.

However the attention should be allocated to what works. When can we admit and tell the public we were wrong about the vaccines as a great way to reduce transmission? When can we admit the vaccines are not delivering their efficacy as promised? The improvements from the mass rollout starting in March was potentially a significant “improvement” of fatality rates because the viral load was limited as we were outdoor more and the temperature prevented encapsulation of the virus. Temperature played a large role – as gas and power traders know – you cannot analyze any data without weather normalization!

Where could we have allocated some of our resources – early on we noted ventilation. Ventilation is key – its what causes infection in general – the concept of viral load. This is why a flight – a contained area but still well ventilated does not see huge transmission noted all the way back May 2020 https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/05/covid-5-19-20/

“Perhaps plane travel is “safe”. This study shows many long flights taken by sick people but they don’t highlight any significant spread in the plane unlike restaurant, gym, or office studies. Is it because the plane is relatively “safe” or was they didn’t study it hard enough? I am going to be optimistic and hope its because it is safe. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30314-5/fulltext “

““Extensive contact tracing involved the international flights from Munich to Shanghai (patient 0 on Jan 22, 2020) and from Munich to Tenerife (patient 12 on Jan 28, 2020). As of May 2, no further cases have been identified among flight passengers or other (personal) contacts.”

I would really like more details on the flight HVAC system. Clearly IF airline trip for 14h and 15 min travel time in an enclosed environment can contain the virus from not spreading compared to the restaurant, gym, and office building that has been highlighted – we need to replicate this!

Multiple times noted that we should have guidelines for CO2 levels – yet the message is vaccinated & wear mask – vaccine/mask mandates – this will solve everything…..but it didn’t – if it did moot point! If we just looked at ventilation you will get reduced viral load – need a study because common sense is not working – Swedish study presents. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/society/study-shows-benefit-of-regular-classroom-ventilation/47179498?s=09

“The correlation is clear: “more students and teaching staff were infected with the corona virus in classrooms with poor air quality than in rooms that are regularly ventilated”, EMPA wrote on ThursdayExternal link. The badly ventilated rooms – 60% of those studied, said canton Graubünden – came out with six times as many cases as the better ventilated ones.”

Also from better ventilation you get better attendance and test scores! https://www.aivc.org/sites/default/files/155_0.pdf

“The results predict that reducing CO2 concentration from 2,000 ppm to 1,000 ppm

(equivalent to about 2.5 times higher outdoor air supply rate) would improve performance on psychological tests and

school tasks on average by 12% (as regards the speed at which the teasks are performed) and by 3% (as regards errors

made while performing the task. The performance on rating schemes will be improved by 1.3%. This change and will

increase the number of pupils passing exams by 12%and is further estimated to result in about 6 out of 100 pupils

improving their performance and to reduce absence by 0.5 day per student in a 200 days long school year.”

Talking about another focus beyond vaccine and mask the govt should have endeavored on a get healthy message – which also gets multiple benefits beyond Covid. Many used the excuse that it takes so long – we are going into 2 yrs now! Clearly health played a big role in covid hospitalization and deaths – once again this was identified very early on! Here back in May of 2020 – https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/05/covid-5-14-20/

“ask to quarantine comorbidities we know are fatal with Covid-19 (Hypertension, Diabetes, BMI>30) – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184?guestAccessKey=906e474e-0b94-4e0e-8eaa-606ddf0224f5&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=042220”

Back in May 19th 2020 – https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196(20)30477-8/fulltext

““Several of these obesity-related morbidities are associated with greater risk for death with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 penetrates human cells through direct binding with angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors on the cell surface. Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 expression in adipose tissue is higher than that in lung tissue, which means that adipose tissue may be vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. Obese patients also have worse outcomes with COVID-19 infection, including respiratory failure, need for mechanical ventilation, and higher mortality. Clinicians need to be more aggressive when treating obese, especially severely obese, patients with COVID-19 infection.”

What was done to address this? Quarantine….close gyms but leave liquor store open? Mask and vaccination will solve it…..

Now once again if you need beyond common sense that being obese is not good here is a recent study – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.24.465626v1

“We further demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 RNA is detectable in adipocytes in COVID-19 autopsy cases and is associated with an inflammatory infiltrate. Collectively, our findings indicate that adipose tissue supports SARS-CoV-2 infection and pathogenic inflammation and may explain the link between obesity and severe COVID-19.

One sentence summary Our work provides the first in vivo evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in human adipose tissue and describes the associated inflammation.”

The push to vaccine was so quick yet we lost the push for treatment. Countries outside US are slowing down vaccination – https://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/thl-recommends-coronavirus-vaccinations-for-at-risk-children-aged-5-to-11-years-for-the-entire-age-group-require-more-information-on-safety?redirect=%2Fen%2Fweb%2Fthlfi-en%2Fwhats-new&s=09

“The Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) recommends starting coronavirus vaccinations for children who are 5 to 11 years of age and belong to a risk group as soon as vaccines are available.

Vaccinations are also recommended for children who are in contact with severely immunodeficient persons. Vaccinations of children who do not belong to risk groups cannot, however, begin before the Government Decree on voluntary COVID-19 vaccinations has been amended.

THL does not yet propose vaccinations for other children aged 5 to 11 years. All children in this age group will be offered the possibility of getting a coronavirus vaccine when more information on the safety of vaccinations for the age group and especially on rare adverse effects has been accumulated.”

Cause to pause for youth vaccination? https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.056583?s=09#.YbNSTabs884.twitter

“Conclusions:Most cases of suspected COVID-19 vaccine myocarditis occurring in persons <21 years have a mild clinical course with rapid resolution of symptoms. Abnormal findings on cMRI were frequent. Future studies should evaluate risk factors, mechanisms, and long-term outcomes.”

If more treatment options show up less need to push vaccine? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10281175/Gum-laced-plant-grown-protein-reduce-COVID-19-transmission-95.html?s=09

“Gum laced with a plant-grown protein is found to reduce COVID-19 transmission by 95% after trapping and neutralizing the virus in the person’s saliva, Penn State University scientists find

The cinnamon-flavored gum is infused with ACE2, which is a plant-grown protein

The protein traps the virus in the saliva and then neutralizes it

Testing of the gum shows this innovation can reduce transmission by 95%”

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-clears-astrazenecas-covid-antibody-treatment-immunocompromised-rcna8130

“The Food and Drug Administration authorized the first injectable monoclonal antibody cocktail for long-term prevention of Covid-19 among people with weakened immune systems before they have been exposed to the coronavirus.

The FDA issued an emergency use authorization Wednesday for AstraZeneca’s antibody cocktail, Evusheld, for what is known as pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, against Covid-19.”
“The federal government has an agreement with AstraZeneca to buy 700,000 doses of Evusheld, which will be available at no cost to eligible patients. The first doses should be available “very soon,” with all doses delivered in a few months, Dobber said.

While the drug is free to patients, health care facilities may charge to administer it, so people could still incur some out-of-pocket costs”

Note the last part ….IF its no cost is this universal healthcare now? How much did they pay for that? Did a search I couldn’t find it….

We have beeen looking at confirmation per capita vs. vaccination rate to show no statistical connection – in fact now slightly indicating the more vaccinated the more transmission vs no correlation. Temp R2=0.33

Death rates and fatality view still not much improvement with more vaccination!

On a county basis there is just no clear data showing vaccination rates improve transmission nor even deaths now!

Its not looking too good out there. The positive thing is the weather outlook for US, Asia, and Europe is some warming up relative to normals.

Europe has more confirmations than anytime. The positive thing is death is still lower. Notice how S. America just dropped out as they go into there warm weather period.

Our Omicron watch countries continue to show strong confirmations – S. Africa is jumping up but still way lower than the European countries.

The whole unvaccinated southern state story is getting blown up now that the weather has shifted – TX and FL are falling and the highly vaccinated northern states under increasing issues.

In the last 7 days the 85.8% vaccinated county of Dewey S. Dakota is seeing the highest confirmations per capita in the country!

In the last 7 days deaths dispersion of death per capita is not showing any significant improvement per vaccination rate.

Covid19mathblog.com

The response to Omicron perhaps another knee jerk reaction with the concept one has to do something? Travel ban for S. Africa and corresponding countries – https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/11/26/a-proclamation-on-suspension-of-entry-as-immigrants-and-nonimmigrants-of-certain-additional-persons-who-pose-a-risk-of-transmitting-coronavirus-disease-2019/

“Given the recommendation of the CDC, working in close coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, described above, I have determined that it is in the interests of the United States to take action to suspend and restrict the entry into the United States, as immigrants and nonimmigrants, of noncitizens of the United States (“noncitizens”) who were physically present within the Republic of Botswana, the Kingdom of Eswatini, the Kingdom of Lesotho, the Republic of Malawi, the Republic of Mozambique, the Republic of Namibia, the Republic of South Africa, and the Republic of Zimbabwe during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.”

Lets look at the data – so far Omicron has been identified in 38 countries https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10274619/WHO-says-no-one-died-Omicron-Covid-variant.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline&s=09 but the map supplied is more like 30 countries – also status of banned not necessarily right perhaps for the UK?

IF we look at those countries AND also believe the R value for Omicron to be high then in theory the confirmations should be high in those countries or we have to conclude they don’t test enough and was just lucky to find the variant and let the world know.

Below shows the 7 day moving average of confirmation per capita – so you get a sense of transmission rate per population. Amazingly the African countries are really low on the map yet these European countries are not banned from travel? Once again are the African countries not testing enough but just enough to find the variant which in theory could be the highest transmitting variant – hmmm one of those things are not adding up…..Not advocating for travel bans just some consistency and logic – likely the cat is out of the bag and we need to move on to identify solutions to mitigate transmission e.g. ventilation, get healthy, Of course many will think the answer is vaccinate – but once again as noted by both CEO of the big two vaccine producers the current vaccines will not work for Omicron. https://www.ft.com/content/27def1b9-b9c8-47a5-8e06-72e432e0838f

https://www.timesofisrael.com/pfizer-ceo-were-working-on-covid-vaccine-against-omicron/

Mask do help to a degree – do you think its possible to say individual assessment on vaccine AND say that mask may help too and once again should be individual and locational choice – for many that seems like an oxymoron for some reason….https://www.mpg.de/17916867/coronavirus-masks-risk-protection?s=09

Scary report notes infection in few minutes! Looks like they did not assessed that on various health level of individual and natural immunity/vax status but on a viral load basis. As noted they are likely being too conservative on their infection level but clearly if you are immune compromised take heed to wear a mask – it will help to a degree.

“The Göttingen team was surprised at how great the risk of infection with the coronavirus is. "We would not have thought that at a distance of several metres it would take so little time for the infectious dose to be absorbed from the breath of a virus carrier," says Eberhard Bodenschatz, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organisation. At this distance, the breathing air has already spread in a cone shape in the air; the infectious particles are correspondingly diluted. In addition, the particularly large and thus virus-rich particles fall to the ground after only a short distance through the air. "In our study we found that the risk of infection without wearing masks is enormously high after only a few minutes, even at a distance of three metres, if the infected persons have the high viral load of the delta variant of the Sars-CoV-2 virus," says Eberhard Bodenschatz. And such encounters are unavoidable in schools, restaurants, clubs or even outdoors.”

“The Göttingen study confirms that FFP2 or KN95 masks are particularly effective in filtering infectious particles from the air breathed – especially if they are as tightly sealed as possible at the face. If both the infected and the non-infected person wear well-fitting FFP2 masks, the maximum risk of infection after 20 minutes is hardly more than one per thousand, even at the shortest distance. If their masks fit poorly, the probability of infection increases to about four percent. If both wear well-fitting medical masks, the virus is likely to be transmitted within 20 minutes with a maximum probability of ten percent. The study also confirms the intuitive assumption that for effective protection against infection, in particular the infected person should wear a mask that filters as well as possible and fits tightly to the face.”

“The infection probabilities determined by the Max Planck team indicate the upper limit of the risk in each case. "In daily life, the actual probability of infection is certainly 10 to 100 times smaller,"”

Society is rationale overall regardless of what you read in media and the vitriol to the unvaccinated. The impact of covid was to the elderly and they responded by getting vaccinated – they clearly see the risk/reward value proposition. Vaccination rate for those 65+well over 80% – I am sure there will always be some doctor consults which would indicate that one should not get the vaccine given known health issues. Mandates cause an unnecessary adversarial impact.

What is interesting/concerning is the reporting of deaths and efficacy of the vaccine. IF we know 80+% of the 65+ are fully vaccinated – should we not see a reduction in covid deaths relative to last year – or do we say all of those deaths are just the unvaccinated?

Interesting to deduce all the heart issues is related to stress? Perhaps something that has been known to cause heart issues Vaccines & Covid? https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/post-pandemic-stress-disorder-heart-conditions-covid-london-physicians-b969436.html?s=09

“Up to 300,000 people in the UK are facing heart-related illnesses due to post-pandemic stress disorder (PPSD), two London physicians have warned.”

“Meanwhile, Tahir Hussain, a senior vascular surgeon at Northwick Park Hospital in Harrow, said he has seen a significant rise in cases where he works.

He said: “I’ve seen a big increase in thrombotic-related vascular conditions in my practice. Far younger patients are being admitted and requiring surgical and medical intervention than prior to the pandemic.

“I believe many of these cases are a direct result of the increased stress and anxiety levels caused from the effects of PPSD.

“We also have evidence that some patients have died at home from conditions such as pulmonary embolism and myocardial infarction. I believe this is related to many people self-isolating at home with no contact with the outside world and dying without getting the help they needed.””

What would one do if we have no unvaccinated to blame – IF the data really proved that the unvaccinated is causing the transmission and deaths then the solution is so easy – vaccinate. There is no statistical evidence to prove a healthy young individual would need to vaccinate else there is a large societal impact. Transmission is not improved significantly else you would see large bifurcation in counties that are more vaccinated than others. Variants of concerns are coming from countries with poor sanitization conditions. There is no overwhelming of the hospitals because of young healthy patients. There are concerns on what healthy and young is but to each their own to calculate that risk/reward with their doctor. There is empirical statistic to say that a healthier society would do better against covid and be well off on other issues which include cancer and heart disease. There is also substantial evidence to say that well ventilated areas do reduce transmission. If there is any mandate it should be public areas show ventilation standards of less than 1000 ppm of CO2. There should also be message to society to get healthy – avoid process foods – increase fruits and vegetables consumption – when has someone died from eating too much fruit and vegetables?

Germany has decided to try to follow Austria and split society by those vaccinated to unvaccinated regardless of health/age status or prior immunity – https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/europe/germany-lockdown-covid-restrictions-intl/index.html

“Unvaccinated people will be banned from accessing all but the most essential businesses, such as supermarkets and pharmacies, to curb the spread of coronavirus, outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel and her successor, Olaf Scholz, announced Thursday, following crisis talks with regional leaders. Those who have recently recovered from Covid-19 are not covered by the ban.

The pair also backed proposals for mandatory vaccinations, which if voted through the parliament could take effect from February at the earliest.”

Do you see any relationship with vaccination and transmission? It was a wishful dream that vaccinations would change the trajectory of transmission – it doesn’t. Complete lockdown and quarantine would but do we really want to be like China?

County basis

Covid19mathblog.com

Well that was quick Omicron in USA confirmed – https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/omicron-variant-found-california-rcna6909

“The omicron variant of the coronavirus has been detected in California, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Wednesday.

The CDC issued a statement that the California and San Francisco Departments of Public Health confirmed the case in a traveler who returned from South Africa on November 22.

"The individual, who was fully vaccinated and had mild symptoms that are improving, is self-quarantining and has been since testing positive," the statement read.”

Looks to be in play earlier – https://time.com/6124632/omicron-variant-spread/

“The Netherlands’ RIVM health institute found omicron in samples dating from Nov. 19 and 23. The World Health Organization said South Africa first reported the variant to the U.N. health agency on Nov. 24. Meanwhile, Japan and France reported their first cases of the new variant that has forced the world once again to pinball between hopes of returning to normal and fears that the worst is yet to come.”

A key theme is most are already vaccinated – https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/two-doctors-in-israel-diagnosed-with-omicron-covid-variant-1.10428042

“The new coronavirus variant, omicron, has been detected in two Israeli doctors, one of whom had returned from a conference in London in the past week, a spokesperson for Sheba Medical Center near Tel Aviv confirmed on Tuesday.

The two doctors had received three doses of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine, and so far have shown mild COVID-19 symptoms, the hospital said.”

“The physician who had returned from Britain had probably infected his colleague, it said.

Two more people have been identified in Israel as carrying the new variant, health officials have confirmed, one of them a tourist from Malawi who had received the AstraZeneca vaccine.”

Before we blame it on the unvaccinated and force all to have vaccine – lets really examine the risk/reward – everyone has a unique risk/reward profile. The decision SHOULD be done with a consult with your doctor who should know about your health and lifestyle. In general the young are not impacted with covid compared to the elder. Yet the impact of the vaccine could be much greater for the youth. Why impose them? https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/uk-sees-44-increase-in-child-deaths-after-jab-rollout-for-young-teens-data-shows/?s=09

“U.K. reports on child deaths from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that, in the weeks since the COVID shot has been administered to children between ages 12 and 15, recorded deaths have risen by 44 percent above the 2015-2019 average for the same time period.

According to the ONS’ “five-year average weekly deaths by sex and age group” figures between 2015 and 2019 among children ages 10-14, there were 41 deaths recorded from week 38 (late September) to week 45 (early November). Within the same time period, the weekly figures recorded for the year 2021 show that 59 children died, representing a 43.9 percent rise in deaths over the five-year average.”

It’s a small number but the increase is real and why have the guilt of this on your hands as a parent. Letting fate play out that your child gets covid AND be sick enough to die is much less certain than knowingly injecting your child with a vaccine with a potential adverse reaction knowing you made the decision vs. fate.

Vaccine has failed in all accounts to maintain spread. Post treatment seems like a good allocation of resources – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10252377/Drug-cocktail-saviour-New-Covid-treatment-FOUR-TIMES-effective.html

“A study found that the ‘Spidex’ drug cocktail reduced intensive care admissions

The mix of dexamethasone and spironolactone could be used to fight Omicron

The findings of Sir Christopher Edwards were published in the Frontiers in Endocrinology medical journal”

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/30/health/molnupiravir-pill-covid-fda-advisers/index.html

“Advisers to the US Food and Drug Administration voted 13-10 Tuesday to recommend emergency use authorization of a pill made by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics to help treat Covid-19.

Members of the FDA’s Antimicrobial Drugs Advisory Committee were split in their vote to recommend molnupiravir, which can reduce the relative risk someone will progress to severe disease or death by about 30%. The absolute reduction in risk of severe disease or death was 3% — 9.7% of people who took placebo died, compared to 6.8% of those given molnupiravir.”

The verdict for Sweden approach is still out. We have only gone through 1 winter! Currently the Sweden approach perhaps was initially too abrupt – causing more initial deaths than need be as treatment and vaccines came out over the next year. However it could be that the end game is equivalent. Being quarantined and not seeing anyone for 1 year worth that 1 year? The key thing is to pick a good benchmark – age, climate, and population density, culture – the best screen I have come up with is Latvia, Finland, and Norway. It is expected Latvia be higher due to population density and economic wellbeing. Norway should be better given younger and less density.

So far Finland and Norway has kept in check deaths and confirmations – but we are now seeing a surge in Norway and Finland. What should be the outcome of this? In theory the vaccine and treatment plan SHOULD keep the death and confirmation per capita down. Time will tell.

Russia continues to lead in deaths. Winter is here in the US – leading in confirmation.

Good new US is much less in both confirmations and deaths vs. last year – as expected given the amount of vaccines with a strong focus on the elderly.

TX and FL dropping out of the top states in deaths and confirmations….hmmm temp?

Last 7 days a very low vaccinated county is the top spreader but right below that we have 63.5% vaccinated county in third place. Note the northerly counties.

Last 30 day state view still no value in reducing spread via vaccination rates…..Temperature a much better indicator.

Covid19mathblog.com

The new variant of concern has skipped naming convention to Omicron – skipping Nu and Xi. The concern of the new variant could be overdone but there are still many unknowns – the biggest concern stems from the amount of mutations vs. other variants. So far the countries that have observed the new variant we don’t see much change in the trajectory of fatality rates or confirmation (Belgium Czechia, Netherlands already spiking weeks ago). If they do conclude that most of the previous spike was Omicron then perhaps we have some real problems. The list of countries to monitor has grown – https://www.cityam.com/omicron-spreading-fast-new-covid-variant-flies-into-uk-germany-netherlands-belgium-czech-republic-and-italy/

“Officials in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Australia, Czech Republic, Italy as well as the UK have confirmed the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus has appeared in their respective countries, leaving governments around the world scrambling to stop the spread.”

From my perspective the issue is the delay of confirmations in society. The diamond princess showed a 20% per capita infection rate – I suspect the health of the nation (sanitization and physical health) and the amount of testing will drive the publish infection rate. Infection rate will eventually be 20% +/-10% for each country per the noted variables. One can stall that infection rate through living in quarantine but I think it becomes inevitable unless you want to live in a bubble. The US per capita confirmation sits at 15%. You can see the European countries a month ago many were under 10% now they are all surging as they opened up under the thought the vaccine was going to save them from infection. The vaccine potentially has done a good job for fatality rate so far – not as good as demonstrated ~60-80% vs 90+% claimed. However for reducing transmission the vaccine is not an effective tool.

Mask does influence infection/transmission rate but clearly not the most effective thing to do similar to the vaccine outcomes. Improving ventilation is likely 10+X more effective than mask – as seen in the airplane studies vs. restaurants studies noted here multiple times. In addition we have noted nasal sprays as an effective form of prevention and minimizing spread. Here is another study to back that claim https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8026810/?s=09

“PPE, mask, hand sanitization or vaccines nothing proved 100% effective for COVID-19 prevention still now. PVP-I oro-nasal spray is an easy tool or way for COVID-19 prevention and reduction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. I recommend here, this oro-nasal spray should be used as an adjunct to PPE, mask or vaccine. Any person, policy maker, local or central government could adopt this safe, cheap, easily available and effective PVP-I Oro-Nasal spray as an additional shield of their COVID-19 protection and thus minimize the COVID burden.”

You can pick this up on Amazon for $17 a spray bottle – the govt could probably push this and the price would come down just like mask and eventually transmission would fall. I would contend a mass use of nasal spray will have more impact than mask. They should just make this mandatory before going to concert/gathering over mask.

Still another thing the govt could be pushing and making available in all the hotspots if they really cared about life as per the vaccine push – Vitamin D – this has been noted many times earlier – but once again another study to confirm since common sense and balancing risk/reward is not enough – https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34836309/

“Results: Our treatment protocol increased the serum 25OHD levels significantly to above 30 ng/mL within two weeks. COVID-19 cases (no comorbidities, no vitamin D treatment, 25OHD <30 ng/mL) had 1.9-fold increased risk of having hospitalization longer than 8 days compared with the cases with comorbidities and vitamin D treatment. Having vitamin D treatment decreased the mortality rate by 2.14 times. The correlation analysis of specific serum biomarkers with 25OHD indicated that the vitamin D action in COVID-19 might involve regulation of INOS1, IL1B, IFNg, cathelicidin-LL37, and ICAM1.

Conclusions: Vitamin D treatment shortened hospital stay and decreased mortality in COVID-19 cases, even in the existence of comorbidities. Vitamin D supplementation is effective on various target parameters; therefore, it is essential for COVID-19 treatment.”

Russia leads in deaths now.

Europe including Russia has surpassed its previous confirmation peak -deaths are still less.

As expected the southern states are dropping out of the top deaths and confirmation states….chirp chirp goes MSM from purporting it was the unvaccinated in the South….

The vaccinated rates are not a good sign of reduced transmission compared to weather and human behavior per the weather.

Here is the state view for the last 30 days