Attached are the rebuttals to the video linked to yesterday. Certainly her neutral stance is tainted as she plans a book release plus was part of an Anti-Vaccine group in FL. As with much conspiracy it is tainted with truths that perhaps gets ignored – all very sad. https://zdoggmd.com/elmhurst-hospital/

NY is an outlier – population density cannot be the blame as many other countries are more dense. Death per capita is a far outlier (2X+). Fatality rate is not highest but many have not done as much testing as NY. Also another excuse is NY was the start – that is not also true given Wuhan and Italy experience. Note Italy death rate is more than half less than NY with just as dense population.

Well the US forked over 1.2B for remdesivir even though the US did fund some of the research – https://www.cnet.com/health/us-to-buy-500000-remdesivir-coronavirus-treatment-courses-at-2340-each/

Once again who pays for this treatment needs to be thought out. The treatment has not been found to significantly improve fatality but found to improve the recovery time.

Reminder of NAID trial result conclusions:

had a 31% faster recovery time than patients who received the placebo

had a slight, but statistically insignificant, improvement in survival — the mortality rate was 8% compared with 11.6% for patients who received the placebo.

On the positive front some real guidelines coming that would boost confidence and potentially actually improve the situation – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/malls-in-new-york-state-will-require-air-conditioning-systems-that-filter-the-coronavirus-gov-cuomo-says.html

New York malls will need high quality air systems that can filter out the coronavirus before they will be allowed to reopen, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Monday.

High efficiency particle air filters, or HEPA filters, have been shown to help reduce the presence of Covid-19 in the air, according to a presentation from Cuomo.

He said the state recommends all businesses and offices “explore the potential for their air conditioning air filtration system.”

How messed up is our health system – another proof – https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-covid-19-tests-price-20200629-ef2ydsicjbexldsqhvzsysssx4-story.html

Why couldn’t they just tell her the cash option would be cheaper in the end vs. having her find out much later?

““The emergency room charged Harvey $199 in cash. LeBlanc, who paid with insurance, was charged $6,408.

“I assumed, like an idiot, it would be cheaper to use my insurance than pay cash right there,” LeBlanc said. “This is 32 times the cost of what my friend paid for the exact same thing.” LeBlanc’s health insurer negotiated the total bill down to $1,128. The plan said she was responsible for $928 of that.”

Not a bad day on death reporting – US only 337 – Brazil 692

US confirmation continues to grow with CA and TX now leading. CA leading death at 51.

Interesting discussion in the social media in regards of protest and increase confirmation. They note IF it was that then why don’t we see more increase in Minnesota and Washington – also why not San Fran vs. LA?

Very good points but sometimes the most obvious things are hard to see. FL, AZ, TX, what do they have in common? It has been getting hot. The problem is people close windows stay inside and run the AC. This also goes for restaurant dining from outside becomes untenable for many and they dine inside. As I have been contending it wasn’t likely the act of protest but the after and before math of socializing and getting together and these warmer climates they are likely inside!

AZ confirmations have dropped of recent.

Another thing to note with confirmation rising – are they separating an antigen result vs. pcr test?

Antibody results are not confirming current positive but past positives so these test are not telling you it is spreading now but it has spread. AZ for sure is showing greater confirmation per tested – but at the same time they have expanded antibody testing. In fact serology test (antibody test) are being used 58% more than PCR test – https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

PCR test are growing so there is spreading in AZ for sure- but the extent of confirmation is being added on top with serology test. The other thing being done is many are getting multiple PCR test to confirm proof. So if you get positive once and you test 2 more times then all three test produce 3 positive and 3 confirmation – not sure if the system is complexed enough to know same person and throw out that data.

All that said confirmation is suspect data – but it is what we have to work with. There is a certain concern in growing confirmation but IF death can be kept in check than we can conclude the virus is already out in society and the overall fatality rate is sub 1% as noted in the CDC outlook. The only way for that to be true is much more confirmations get noted.

Positive thing is Brazil seems to flattening on daily deaths. Mexico also looks like they are starting to move down.

This is incredulous if even halfway right – https://youtu.be/UIDsKdeFOmQ

The first part shows a case where patients are being declared covid when not likely – worse yet non-covid mixed with covid patients. Also around 15 min shows a case where there is a treatment controversy.

Around 40 min a discussion on HCQ and zinc….shows the Houston local news story on HCQ and zinc which never made national news

I am concerned about my personal confirmation bias in this video. Very early on I said whatever you do don’t get on the ventilator – this video highlights why. My concern came from the data and the very poor success rate of ventilators – not the thought that there was a bias to push ventilators.

I have noted HCQ and zinc, vitamin C and D as a worthwhile risk/reward – they note that in this video.

But never in my wildest dream would I even think there could be a systematic process to kill people in the USA. I have been saying for weeks there is something seriously wrong in NY too much of an outlier unfortunately this video supports some of this. In the end her conclusion is the need to generate revenue for the hospitals in NYC particularly public hospitals that caused a systematic bias to diagnose covid – to admit patients even though not needed – treatment plan driven off money….Perhaps her perspective is jaded and she doesn’t understand the bigger picture. It would be nice that someone would explain the bigger picture.

Should be able to support/refute some of her claims by graphing public hospital vs. private hospitals in terms of admission and treatment plans – if large disparity than this would support her claims. Now who has this data? Clearly a hot topic will be the discussion of public or private hospitals and whether pandemics as such one can have private hospitals – but IF public hospital incentives are skewed results could be devastating to.

On a brighter note Sunday reporting are always good. Brazil tops death but only 552 – US way down at 264

CA leads the US death but at only 33. Another large day of confirmation in FL.

The good thing going for FL is they are confirming but the hospitalization rates are dropping. On a 7 day moving average they are down to less than 4% of those getting confirmed get hospitalized. Datafeed below still only to 6/26

Almost 25% of FL confirmation from Miami-Dade County

Miami Dade is seeing a continuous drop in fatality rate. Perhaps we can argue a delay – but the confirmations have been rising exponentially since Jun 11th and even on a 2-4 wk delay confirmation delay death rates have edge down somewhat at the very least held steady.

Overall Italy has a fatality rate of 14.5% – however of recent on a 2-4wk delay of confirmation those are only seeing less than 5% fatality rate. Two things likely happening the more vulnerable are being better quarantine and an improvement on treatment.

A potential low risk high reward option for treating Covid – https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12343250

“Salt water could treat Covid-19, according to scientists who say evidence show the unusual remedy might work.

Researchers from the University of Edinburgh have found gargling salt water reduces symptoms of cough and colds and can stop them from getting worse.”

Looking at already developed drug – colchicine – anti-inflammatory pill – https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-early-trial-ancient-drug-severe.html

“There’s new evidence that a 2,000-year-old medicine might offer hope against a modern scourge: COVID-19.

The medication, called colchicine, is an anti-inflammatory taken as a pill. It’s long been prescribed for gout, a form of arthritis, and its history goes back centuries. The drug was first sourced from the autumn crocus flower.”

“The trial involved 105 Greek patients hospitalized in April with COVID-19. Besides receiving standard antibiotics and antivirals (but not remdesivir), half of the participants got daily doses of colchicine for up to three weeks, while the other half did not.

The results "suggest a significant clinical benefit from colchicine in patients hospitalized with COVID-19," according to the team led by Dr. Spyridon Deftereos, a cardiologist at Attikon Hospital in Attiki, Greece.

Specifically, while the condition of seven of 50 patients who didn’t get colchicine "clinically deteriorated" to a severe stage (for example, requiring mechanical ventilation to survive), this was true for just one of the 55 patients who did receive colchicine, the researchers said.”

“Dr. Amir Rabbani, a cardiologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, and colleagues stressed in the editorial that the study size was too small to offer a definitive statement on whether colchicine should be used routinely against COVID-19.

But they said that its effects on certain blood markers of heart function—as observed in the new study—suggest that colchicine has anti-inflammatory and anti-clotting effects that could help limit the cardiovascular damage wreaked by COVID-19.”

“The colchicine study is currently recruiting patients, with UCSF and New York University School of Medicine being the first two U.S. sites involved.”

I am huge proponent of testing wastewater treatment plants. Not sure why this is not done ASAP and reported. A sense of the general population infection is better understood vs. testing individuals given individual testing becomes a function of demographics that show up to be tested. This is a fascinating report indicating the virus could go back to March 2019 – https://www.complex.com/life/2020/06/coronavirus-traces-reportedly-found-in-spanish-wastewater-samples-from-2019

“According to Reuters, researchers at the University of Barcelona announced Friday they had detected COVID-19 in sewage samples collected in March 2019—about nine months before the disease was first reported in Wuhan, China. The team of researchers said they began testing frozen wastewater samples taken between January 2018 and December 2019. All samples reportedly tested negative for coronavirus traces, except for the March 12, 2019 sample. However, research leader Albert Bosch emphasized that the levels of SARS-CoV-2 were low.”

“The study has since been submitted for peer review, but independent experts say more tests and data are needed before the findings can be confirmed. Some have also pointed to the possibility of a false positive.

"When it’s just one result, you always want more data, more studies, more samples to confirm it and rule out a laboratory error or a methodological problem," said Dr. Joan Ramon Villalbi, a board member of the Spanish Society for Public Health and Sanitary Administration. "It’s definitely interesting, it’s suggestive."

New Zealand made big press headlines for eliminating covid – this article shows how hard it will be to stay that way if you want to maintain any lifestyle we had – or perhaps you just got to be on an island – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/28/new-zealands-covid-19-isolation-facilities-under-extreme-stress-review-finds

“The review found “resources required to support the managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) function have failed to keep pace with the increased volume of returnees”.”

Can you really contain the young people? It is hard enough to contain teenagers – https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Harris-County-young-adults-contracted-COVID-19-at-15371539.php

“The number of reported coronavirus cases has tripled in Harris County since mid-May. People 20 to 29 made up nearly a quarter of all new cases, according to a Houston Chronicle analysis of Harris County Public Health data.”

Population wise they should represent 17% not 25%…Not sure why the reporter would not present the population distribution – here it is again so you can read the article with greater perspective

“That group now comprises more than a fifth of the county’s total confirmed cases, up from a little more than 16 percent on May 15. People aged 30 to 39 made up roughly the same amount, making those two age groups the largest drivers of the increase — mirroring state and national trends that place younger people at the center of the dramatic surge.”

Reasonable to be around fifth of the total confirmed given pop. Distribution and likelihood of going out vs. other age group

Not sure I will agree with the statement below – other than the govt. should have probably noted the risk more and also promoted more mask wearing and offer business guidelines to improve their stores to reduce breakout odds. Going out is certainly not risk free but its in your power to be educated and understand what you can do to minimize your risk.

““You can’t allow the state’s leadership and government to say that something is all right to do … and then get upset with them for doing what they were allowed to do,” she said. “They failed people.””

To me it looks like the disease DETECTION is just being normalized to the population at hand leading to my point that much of the detection is detecting what is out there. IF the numbers go way out of the population distribution then we do have spreading beyond what is out there. The virus knows no age when it comes to infection.

“On the other hand, people 40 and older, while still seeing an increase in the number of cases, comprise a smaller portion of the overall number compared to their younger counterparts. They went from making up 55 percent of all cases to a little more than 46 percent as of June 26.”

Here is the fear line which hold some truths

“Several Houston hospitals could not immediately provide data on hospitalization rates among people in their 20s or 30s, but executives said they have seen young people in ICUs and hooked up to intubators. In some cases, they are discharged with long-term lung damage, Persse said”

Here is the balance line

“Only two people under 30 have died from COVID-19 in Harris County and they both had an underlying health condition, according to local health data. Seven people between 30 and 39 have died from coronavirus.”

What is needed is the numbers with long-term lung damage is that a lot or a few and did it require comorbidities?

The virus may not know age when it comes to infection – but it does seem to know age when it comes to fatality.

“As of June 26, people 60 and older make up more than 80 percent of the county’s 361 deaths despite making up less than half of the county’s 27,000-plus confirmed cases.”

The herd influence is strong

““At first I would go out and I had a mask on, and you see nobody’s wearing a mask,” he said. “You kind of get comfortable.””

Unfortunately for Brazil they continue to lead the death delta 1109. US leads in confirmation.

Arizona takes the death leader for the US at 44. Florida sees 9.6K new confirmation.

This view is the confirmation for the past 4 weeks and you can see the hotspot for FL is Miami-Dade. LA county CA has grown the most (33K confirms) even though they are in stay at home orders – so this would not necessarily support that opening economy is necessarily causing increase confirmations. Closing economy either is ineffective because unenforceable and/or the disease is already rampant in society. IF you don’t want to be confirmed live in the middle of nowhere – perhaps can’t get or don’t know you got it because they don’t test.

With all these confirmations in the US the fatality rate continues to drift down- now at 5% and falling.

Just the numbers today.

Below are all the counties in the US with 500+ confirmed covid cases. So basically these counties have covid. What I don’t have is how much of the population is tested in these counties without going to each county unique website. I suspect by deduction the lower end are likely less tested vs. the higher end. The highest confirmation per capita is in Trousdale County TN – largely because a huge prison – https://www.wkrn.com/community/health/coronavirus/trousdale-county-leads-us-in-virus-cases-per-capita-due-to-prison/

Assuming ones county doesn’t make up like a prison not likely to spread as rapidly – which coincidently is similar the Princess Diamond Cruise ship ~18% of the population. On the far end of the spectrum we have Clark Washington US at 0.15% confirmed per capita. They have only tested 2.7% of the population – https://www.clark.wa.gov/public-health/novel-coronavirus

They are also fortunate enough to have a lesser population density than many major cities with only 3256 people per sq mile as compared to Harris County TX at 5319 and NYC at 28K.

The median distribution for these 540 counties is 0.75% – which is close to state of Alaska totals I discussed yesterday.

Unless your county is uniquely clean or socially different than the rest of the US likely if you have not tested beyond 20% of your population – the county will likely gravitate to at least the median number if the county already has covid in the general population. Obviously IF you have covid than the odds of covid deaths is greater and hence there is trend to show more covid cases more covid deaths. Discovering deaths having covid can come in after the deaths have occurred as noted by multiple death revisions by states. However having high confirmation does not directly equal high mortality as Trousdale county is sitting at 0.06% death per capita as compared to NY with a 2.5% confirmed per capita and a death per capita rate of 0.27%. (highest in the country).

Harris county TX has only tested 6% of the population as of Jun 25th – https://www.dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/

As Harris County TX test there is no doubt confirmations will rise as the current confirmed per capita is low relative (0.65%) to expectations for a city this size and a decent non-mask wearing society.

New York City and associated counties have tested nearly 18% of the population and sit at 2.5% confirmed per capita. Testing total for city: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

So far hypothesis of testing and amount confirmed seems reasonable.

The key is whether this overburdens our hospitals. Unfortunately I don’t have TX hospital data source – but we do have FL and AZ. We can see even though the confirmations are rising less of those are being hospitalized – which is a very good thing (last chart below). In terms of testing and positive outcomes we see for AZ, FL, and TX that stat is growing (third chart below). There are many factors that can lead to that percentage growth from better testing sites to more community awareness to the simple fact the disease is spreading much more rapidly to the general public. CA is interesting to see that they are maintaining their positive to test percentage at around 6%.

Harris county view shows deaths are still in check in terms of the confirmed even on a 2-4 week lag basis.

No doubt the opening of the states could have been structured much better. The mask requirement could have been started at the beginning with simple explanations why mask are necessary.

We certainly should have persuaded the general public that adoption of a healthy lifestyle will significantly reduce your risk. During quarantine this would have been a perfect time to transition to whole foods and daily workouts.

Guidelines/recommendations to create a safer environment from fresh air HVAC units to UV filtrations should have been announced and promoted. Closing all business type regardless of investment and strategy to reduce spread seems unfair. Guidelines and recommendations gives business owners a chance to at least compete.

In the rest of the world – Brazil continues its top death country at 990 – Mexico 2nd 719

CA leads the US in deaths yesterday at only 62. Optimistically we know how to treat the disease much better than the beginning.

India has sustained its dip down in death for the 7 day moving average

Well thanks for the hospital CEO to TRYING to stop the massive nationwide sensationalized headings – so sad – https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/06/25/houston-hospital-leaders-discuss-capacity-has-coronavirus-cases-rise/?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

“Leaders from the four largest hospital systems in Houston said Thursday that they are in good shape to handle a surge of coronavirus patients if it happens”

“”There is not a scenario, in my opinion, to where the demand for our beds, especially ICUs, ventilators, PPE, etcetera, would eclipse our capability,” said Mark Wallace, the President and CEO of Texas Children’s Hospital said.

“All four CEOs agreed they are concerned about the increasing number of coronavirus cases and asked Houstonians to do everything they can to help flatten the current curve. However, the hospitals in the Texas Medical Center are equipped to deal with a surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations.

The CEOs said they have a sustained surge protection plan in place, meaning other beds in other rooms could be used to house patients if it becomes necessary.

“We have plenty of capacity,” said Dr. David Callender, of Memorial Hermann”

“As for what can be done to have an impact on the numbers, Giordano said the bottom line: a matter of how residents respond to staying safe.

“Really a lot of it is going to boil down to individual behavior. People need to understand that the shut down didn’t make this go away. And the resumption of activities is not resume everything like it was before. It’s resume with precautions,” he said.” (DIDN’T SAY IT STRAIGHT UP – BUT WEAR A MASK is the precaution and not loiter inside with others)

Will anyone be accountable for projecting FALSE rumors and increasing stress and hysteria – I have people from other countries concerned about my family now? Perhaps get more funding for Houston even though our death rates are one of the lowest in the country/world?

There was no doubt in my mind confirmations will rise in CA, TX, FL – they all have less than 10% of the population tested. Even states with the most tested – confirmation/tested is not near zero RI at 22% tested is showing 7% confirmation rate. TX only 6% of population tested – currently 9% confirm per tested. In terms of total populations testing positive sit at 0.5%. IF they test MORE people AND AT BEST you assume the lowest confirmation among states to test with over 10% population tested that would be Alaska at 0.8% confirmed per tested. 25 MILLION more needed to be tested in Texas – 25Million X .008 – this means we could see 70K more confirmations from current level of only 131K confirmed. Once again confirmation is a pointless number once you can accept the virus is out and spreads very effectively….now its about hospitalization mitigation…AND of course minimize further spread but to think that a goal of zero confirmation seems very unachievable without ending society – given the risk for many will be at worse a flu like condition this does not seem like an appropriate reaction. And there are several obvious means to control spread.

Can we stop arguing over the obvious – wear a mask – This paper highlights mask, age, and obesity drivers and potential mechanism why those are important factors. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137745v1.full.pdf

MASK

“simulation study showed that universal masking at 80% adoption suppresses COVID-19 deaths significantly more than maintaining

a lockdown.”

“The mask non-wearing rate in mid-March alone explained up to 72% of variations of the number of

deaths per million.”

“There was a significant positive correlation between male BMI and mask non-wearing rate in midMarch. Although this does not simply indicate that obese people tend not to wear masks, it is possible

to speculate that when people become more obese, they feel more uncomfortable to wear masks since

obese adult inhale air average 50% more per day than non-obese adults (Brochu, 2014). Also, body

temperature is positively associated with obesity (Bastardot, 2019), and face masks could rise body

temperature (Yip, 2005; Hayashi 2004). Therefore, obese people may feel more heat and discomfort

(Li, 2005) when wearing face masks depending on the temperature and humidity. The small size of

universal face masks may be a simple reason for the correlation ”

“face mask has never been mandated in Japan, despite its high

face mask wearing rate. We speculate that the cultural may be the major reason for the difference.

Many Japanese wear surgical masks on a daily basis not for shedding infections or pollens, but also

for achieving anonymity just like westerners wearing sunglasses, which is referred to as "mask

dependency" in excessive cases (Li, 2017). However, while people may hope to achieve anonymity,

most of them want to avoid making others uncomfortable, and there is a regional difference in what

people feel uncomfortable. Jack, Caldara, & Schyns (2012) mentioned that “whereas Western

Caucasian internal representations predominantly featured the eyebrows and mouth, East Asian

internal representations showed a preference for expressive information in the eye region” . This

tendency may be the major reason why it is more considered rude wearing sunglasses among East

Asia (Gesteland, 2020), whereas it is considered more suspicious to wear face masks in Western

countries. Yamanaka (2020) wonders if Japan has an "X-factor" that led to the low rates of COVID-19

deaths. Although the present study is not intended to show the causal role of face mask wearing rate,

future attempts for intervention may consider the face mask wearing rate as the major candidate for

the "X-factor"”

“most Japanese keep silent while using public transportation, because loud chatter in the

public transportation is considered rude in Japan (Baseel, 2020). This may also be able to reduce the

case of COVID-19 because more aerosols are exhaled from asymptomatic individuals during

speaking than breathing (Buonanno, Stabile, & Morawska, 2020) and it is considered to contribute

largely to spread of COVID-19 (Prather, Wang, & Schooley, 2020)”

Obesity

“respiratory failure is the most

important pathology that contributes to the severity of both COVID-19 and H1N1 influenza

infections. Since obese patients generally show a restrictive breathing pattern and reduced lung

volumes, the obesity-hypoventilation syndrome can lead to respiratory failure in COVID-19 patients,

being a risk factor especially for patients with severe symptoms. Also, obesity has been reported to be

a risk factor for the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (Zhi et al, 2016), which is a

serious clinical manifestation of COVID-19 (Simonnet et al., 2020). According to Moriconi et al.

(2020), in patients of COVID-19, inflammatory markers were higher in obese group than non-obese

group at admission, and obese group showed a worse pulmonary clinical picture, with lower PaO2”

“potential mechanisms may explain the reason why the association of BMI (male) and the

number of deaths increased May to June 2020. Typical COVID-19 patients are hospitalized a few

days to a week after infection and in some cases the symptom become severe a few weeks after

hospitalization. If the obesity affects the last phase of the transition of the disease, there must be some

delay in the increase in correlations between BMI and the number of deaths per million compared to

the spread of COVID-19. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that obese people have high

chance to be infected because obese adults are known to inhale air average 50% more per day than

non-obese adults (Brochu, 2014), which may lead to increase the chance to inhale the virus.

Age

“age ≥ 80 (male) was correlated with the number of deaths from the onset of the

global pandemic. This may reflect the common etiological feature that old people are more

susceptible to infection and have higher risk of death after infection compared to young people

because of the dysfunction of immunity.

The precise reason why older age contributes to the number of COVID-19-related deaths remains to

be elucidated, while the immune dysfunction has been proposed as a potential mechanism (Mueller,

McNamara, & Sinclair, 2020). Meanwhile, it is controversial whether the reduced immunity simply

contributes to the higher mortality after infection. Excessive immunity could cause the cytokine storm

and ARDS in COVID-19 in some cases (Ye, Wang, & Mao, 2020). Furthermore, two patients with X linked agammaglobulinemia have recovered from COVID-19, suggesting that B-cell response may

not be necessary for the recover from this disease (Soresina et al., 2020). While other dysfunction of

immunity, such as age-related T-cell dysfunction, may be involved in the severity of COVID-19

(Minato, Hattori, & Hamazaki, 2020), the mechanism should be carefully investigated.

Along with immune dysfunction, old individuals tend to provoke unwanted inflammation, which may

contribute to the severity of COVID-19 (Mueller, McNamara, & Sinclair, 2020). This tendency can be

seen in SARS-CoV-infected old nonhuman primate (Smits et al., 2010). Also, To et al. (2020) reported

that older age is correlated with the higher salivary viral load, which is highest during the first week

after symptom onset. Furthermore, as in the case of obese patients, decreased respiratory function of

elderly could also be the reason. In elder individual, both forced expiratory volume in one second

(FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) decrease dramatically (Falaschetti et al., 2004), to almost half

of their lifetime maximum values, especially in males (Leem et al., 2019)”

In a nutshell be healthy and wear a mask. Work on your breathing capabilities and don’t talk too much in public.

Speaking of obvious but not able to absorb it without an EXPERT and a Corresponding study done – https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/does-air-conditioning-spread-coronavirus-n1232175

“There’s some reports that malls, bars, certain social clubs with air conditioning, that air conditioning may not be cleansing the air of the virus, just recirculating the air with the virus.” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a briefing Wednesday. "We’re studying that, and as soon as we get some more information, we’ll make an informed decision."

“But experts say there’s little evidence to link air conditioning to the spread of the coronavirus. Rather, the risk more likely comes from the amount of time spent indoors in close proximity to others.

“The opening up of facilities from my point of view, and I think this is shared by colleagues, that doesn’t depend on the air conditioning, it’s the gathering of the people for long periods of time,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center.”

I DON’T get this logic. IF you are inside and someone is contagious via their droplets – each time they talk/breath they are increasing the viral load in the space….IF you take the AC and blow air over them that same droplet moves a little further – IF you take the air AND recirculate it YOU will be exposed to more droplets than IF it wasn’t on. The Chinese restaurant clearly showed this. DO you really need funding to prove the obvious? The contagious person on 14 hour flight and NO one got sick – how that happened BECAUSE of HVAC system and reduction of viral load as the person probably wasn’t talking on airplane. Airplanes recirculate less than 50% of the air. Fresh air = 0 pollutant + recirculated air = Growing Viral load

I am not claiming AC unit will get you sick – no it could ACTUALLY reduce it IF you install a fresh air unit or run the air through UV high HEPA filter therefore DILUTING the total air. But if you just recirculate the air you seem to disperse the droplets farther and ever increasing viral load as long as that sick person continues to breath and talk…..

I guess they all want funding to prove logic.

Big jump in deaths with US holding the top spot 2430 – but most of that all in NJ

NJ has reclassified deaths to Covid – https://6abc.com/new-jersey-coronavirus-death-toll-nj-covid-19-cases-in/6268144/

The data in NJ did seem very optimistic given the curvature Confirmed/capita was higher than NY than all the sudden MidMay it flipped lower….This actually makes more sense.

NJ counties stick out on the county view as expected. I wonder why confirmation did not change I presume reclassify would also mean they confirmed or they were confirmed but didn’t classify death.

All the time charts are now all skewed as those DEATHS did not just happened. US is now above Mexico on 7 day moving average death chart.

New study on HCQ – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.19.20136093v1.full.pdf

“We evaluated the effectiveness of (hydroxyl)chloroquine in treating patients with

moderate COVID-19. Our data suggest that chloroquine is likely to be effective in

treating certain types of the disease. At the dosage used, hydroxychloroquine exerted

effects similar to those of chloroquine; however, the magnitude of

hydroxychloroquine’s effects was limited.”

“Forty-eight patients with moderate COVID-19 were randomized to oral treatment

with chloroquine (1000 mg QD on Day 1, then 500 mg QD for 9 days; n=18),

hydroxychloroquine (200 mg BID for 10 days; n=18), or control treatment (n=12)”

The verge of crisis in Houston is the headline – very scary headline for sure – https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/504319-houston-on-verge-of-crisis-amid-surging-covid-19-cases

There are multiple variables to consider from the Memorial holidays, protest, and general opening of the economy. Clearly a SMART opening – strong guidelines and quarantine for individuals in high risk category – would have been advisable. Guidelines for business to install and/or improve air flow would have been advisable. Protest guidelines from wearing mask to STRONG suggestions to not gather back in homes or bars/restaurants to discuss the days events. I think the act of walking outside with a mask not likely will contribute to the issue. But the bond of marching with your fellow man after a quarantine probably lowered the guard and caused a social gathering which would likely not be in a conducive environment. INDOOR talking and socializing with AC running without a fresh air unit is likely the perfect environment to spread coronavirus. Restaurant gathering indoor without modification on HVAC likely circulated coronavirus from an asymptomatic person as they talked and socialized if the person was aligned with HVAC blowing. I would probably hypothesize the blowing of HVAC could cause a spread similar to a sneeze in terms of distance probably not viral load.

In terms of data to understand what is happening the best source still is Texas Medical Center. The most concerning graph likely the below image.

They note 2 dates. You can see phase 1 and phase 2 even weeks after did not do much. Even after Memorial day which this year May25th – 2 to 3 weeks later – no big jump till the very end of 3rd week which is the later end of timeline of symptoms avg ~14days. The protest began beginning of June 1 week later which would coincide on the spread growth timeline. Once again I believe its not the protest itself it is the human aspect of finally being out with your fellow person and deciding to get together afterwards that likely resulted in spreading AND perhaps having restaurants. Also I would hope high risk category individuals would have not protested – high risk are multiple comorbidities – diabetes, heart issue, immune deficiency, obese,….. IF that was considered than we will likely have increased confirmations BUT it should not strain the medical system.

Here is the ICU capacity chart – note date 6/23 – AT slight below NORMAL capacity…..27% ICU bed for Covid-19….so not sure about the VERGE of CRISIS…certainly alarming increases

This is probably the most alarming chart offered which included some extrapolations including a significant growth of noncovid ICU. Probably need to look back in history and see IF July actually increased over June. How many are elected procedures? Now that the governor has banned elected procedures this chart should be revised.

Here we are in the no concern to moderate concern….once again Verge of crisis?….maybe it’s the only way to get clicked on now….

Our data source continues to not show “alarming” stats yet…In fact the fatality rates are the envy of the nation.

Trying to understand the breakout of Harris county confirmation the only source – https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/9280d2e195b440d5ac29dfc819048550

Interesting to see the majority Race/Ethnicity unknown.

Interesting distribution of age group impact – hopefully the elderly are doing much better job quarantining here.

If we look at Harris county population distribution it does show kids are not getting it OR get to a point to go get a test.

Brazil leading the death leaderboard followed closely by Mexico.

California leads the US in deaths 99. Florida and TX confirmation rising dramatically.

Miami Dade is similar to Harris County in terms of confirmation and deaths leading the state.

Just like Harris County the increases do come with a silver lining – fatality rates are dropping – no alarming rise. Hopefully this means we are treating it better and those vulnerable are staying quarantined and not getting it.

Brazil and Mexico still on top and not showing a decline yet.

Not sure if my algorithm continues to push content that I support – which would not necessarily be a good thing when you are focused on being subjective but here is another write up suggesting Vitamin D – however most of my content are non-advertising pages – mainly papers so no one making money off me http://orthomolecular.activehosted.com/index.php?action=social&chash=b73ce398c39f506af761d2277d853a92.164&s=b5a4d78a62acf8d7d34cf4c3d0c1905f

“If we act on the data showing that it is highly probable that vitamin D can save lives, we could fix this pandemic in a month, for perhaps $2 per person. There would be no significant adverse effects. If we wait for "evidence" that vitamin D mitigates the impact of COVID-19, thousands more will die. If we could arrange to give everyone vitamin D, and it failed to protect them, so what? The risk from not acting is much greater than the risk from acting. Dosage is important and generally misunderstood.

Two countries have acted on this already: Egypt and Slovenia. Why can’t we?

The Orthomolecular Medicine News Service has been publicizing the importance of vitamins D and C, and the minerals zinc and magnesium, in this pandemic since January [1]. I have been writing about Vitamin D and sunlight for over 30 years [2], and it has never been more relevant.

If you caught the COVID19 virus right now, having a good vitamin D status (from already having taken a supplement) would

Reduce your risk of the disease becoming severe by 90%

Reduce your risk of dying by 96%

This is not "proven" or "evidence-based" until we have done controlled trials comparing it to placebo. Any volunteers for that? But the data, already strong, has been pouring in since the start of the pandemic.

“Recent studies have suggested in discussion that more than 4000 IU per day of vitamin D3 may carry a risk of harm, citing the UK Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition report of 2016 which set the recommended Upper Level (UL) intakes of 50mcg/2000IU per day. [10] That report says; "Excessive vitamin D intakes have, however, been shown to have toxic effects (Vieth, 2006)". [10] However this is misleading, as the Vieth paper [11] states: "Published reports suggest toxicity may occur with 25(OH)D concentrations beyond 500 nmol/L." This leaves a wide margin of safety.

“Government recommendations for vitamin D intake – 400 IU/day for the UK and 600 IU/day for the USA (800 IU for >70 years) and the EU – are based primarily on bone health. This is woefully inadequate in the pandemic context. An adult will need to take 4000 IU/day of vitamin D3 for 3 months to reliably achieve a 75 nmol/L level [12]. Persons of color may need twice as much [13]. These doses can reduce the risk of infection, but are not for treatment of an acute viral infection. And since vitamin D is fat-soluble and its level in the body rises slowly, for those with a deficiency, taking a initial dose of 5-fold the normal dose (20,000 IU/day) for 2 weeks can help to raise the level up to an adequate level to lower infection risk.

Other essential nutrients can help

As mentioned above, many studies have shown that for those deficient in essential nutrients, a protocol that includes vitamin D, vitamin C, magnesium, and zinc can decrease the risk of infection for viruses, including those similar to COVID-19.[1] Recommended preventive adult doses are vitamin C, 3000 mg/day (in divided doses, to bowel tolerance), magnesium, 400 mg (in malate, citrate, or chloride form), zinc, 20 mg. [1]”

Brazil leads the death category again at 1374 deaths yesterday. US second at 826

Delaware leading the deaths for the US for the first time at 69

Delaware given small state all counties are not looking good but the worse is New Castle. Once again looks like a timing issue but what media will note this – also deaths in long-term health facility certainly do not represent the general public – https://news.delaware.gov/2020/06/23/public-health-announces-27-additional-positive-cases-of-covid-19-in-delaware/

“DPH is also announcing that after completing a review of death certificate records from the Delaware Vital Events Registration System (DelVERS) and comparing that information to epidemiological surveillance data, DPH epidemiologists have identified 67 additional COVID-19 deaths dating back to April 2020 that were not previously reported to DPH through standard reporting procedures, but should be classified as confirmed or probable deaths, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) case definition.”

“DPH was also able to determine that approximately 75 percent of the decedents died at a long-term care facility, according to the death records. DPH is working to communicate the reporting requirements with long-term care facilities and hospitals in the state to ensure full accuracy and transparency.

Of the 67 deaths added to the state’s total death count, 32 are classified as confirmed due to there being a positive lab result of COVID-19 in DPH’s surveillance system, and 35 deaths are classified as probable, as, per the CDC case definition, the death certificate indicated COVID-19 or SARS CoV-2 as a cause or contributing factor to death.”

Viewing country or even state data really doesn’t show what is going on as you can see in the graphs above – so much dead space. Below is the graph of the top 24 counties in the US in terms of death. This covers 50% of the total deaths in the US.

Obviously NY county leads the pack with FL, Miami Dade county at 24.

The lines going across and the number presented on them is the population weighted average for the country. Therefore IF that metric was a big driver ALL/MOST of the counties being presented would be on top or below that line.

Interesting to see age and population density not really being consistent among the top 24. Race is a common discussion but you will see the Black rate is not consistent above or below in terms of county population. Poverty also is not a big driver as many counties listed here are at national level or below the national rate.

The one consistent theme is all these counties voted more democrats in 2016. This begs the question are they typically run by democrats at local level. I did some research and concluded for the most part yes. The closest republican held county was Nassau – “Democrats currently hold a 10 to 8 majority in the Suffolk County Legislature, the Republicans currently hold a 11 to 8 majority in the Nassau County Legislature.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Long_Island

“Miami-Dade County has voted for the Democratic Party candidate in most of the presidential elections in the past four decades, and has gone Democratic in every election since 1992”

Bergen County NJ majority democrats – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bergen_County,_New_Jersey#Politics

Oakland County Michigan another close one – In the 116th Congress, Oakland County is represented by four Democrats, Brenda Lawrence (14th), Andy Levin (9th), Haley Stevens (11th) and Elissa Slotkin (8th). Slotkin and Stevens were first elected in 2018, flipping Republican-held seats. – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oakland_County,_Michigan#Politics

Worcester County MA – 3 out 5 D local official.

I am not concluding this causation/correlation BUT it has been a national discussion since the beginning of the US – Federal vs. State vs Local (county) rights. The precision of covid really does require a localized response. I am not letting the current administration off the hook as in hindsight I am SURE everyone holds some personal responsibility and could have done things better. However county response is likely more potent in terms of minimizing covid impacts. There is no doubt that NY officials botched the response to Covid and to blame it on federal response we should have seen other areas show just as bad results but NY state represents 26% of total deaths in the US but representing 6% of total US population! As noted before I have always voted libertarian largely as vote of no confidence in the system. I was not expecting the data to show the results below but it is what it is and people need to consider local leadership as important as federal leadership particularly if you believe the government should have done more to reduce the impact of covid.

Clearly there are well run local democratic county when it comes to covid response. San Francisco CA and Arlington County VA stick out given high pop density and high public transport but yet much less death 48 and 126 respectively. The above analysis was just looking at the view of the 50% deaths in the US which happened to be those 24 counties.

Brazil deaths are climbing but their fatality rate is dropping unlike Mexico. Remember in May they switched to HCQ treatment.

Slaughterhouses in general must be awful working conditions – https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-lockdown-north-rhine-westphalia-meat-factory-outbreak-a9580686.html

“Germany has reimposed lockdown measures in its most populous state after a surge in coronavirus cases were reported in one of Europe’s largest slaughterhouses.”

“More than 1,500 workers in the Rheda-Wiedenbrück meat processing plant were confirmed to have contracted the virus over the weekend – a figure that coincided with a leap in the nation’s rate of reproduction for the virus – or R number – from 1.06 on Friday to 2.88 on Sunday, before settling at a current estimate from the Robert Koch Institute for public health of 2.76.”

“It comes as a number of concentrated outbreaks are reported in meatpacking centres and slaughterhouses worldwide – including in the US and UK, two of the nations worst impacted by the virus. While theories on the reason behind this range from the lack of distancing possible in factory settings, poor employment conditions and cold temperatures, industry representatives in the UK told The Independent the matter is a “mystery”.”

Positive news on vaccine development in Israel – probably the most detailed in terms of development and efficacy – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.18.160655v1.full

“single-dose vaccination was able to protect hamsters against SARS-CoV-2 challenge, as demonstrated by the abrogation of body weight loss of the immunized hamsters compared to unvaccinated hamsters. Furthermore, whereas lungs of infected hamsters displayed extensive tissue damage and high viral titers, immunized hamsters’ lungs showed only minor lung pathology, and no viral load. Taken together, we suggest recombinant VSV-ΔG-spike as a safe, efficacious and protective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

“Lungs extracted from infected hamsters showed average viral titers of 1.6×105 pfu/lung (n=5), whereas viral titers in lungs of vaccinated and infected animals were below the limit of detection (LOD, 500 pfu/lung) (n=2) (Fig. 7B). Infected hamsters revealed extensive lung damage including focal inflammation patches, pleural invagination and massive alveolar collapse, and edema, whereas rVSV-ΔG-spike vaccinated hamsters demonstrated markedly ameliorated tissue damage (Fig. 8A-L). These results were further supported by tissue/air space analysis demonstrating significantly lower tissue/air space ratio in immunized hamsters compared to lungs of infected hamsters, but similar to that of naïve samples (Fig. 8D).”

“The rVSV-ΔG-spike possess several features that contribute to its safety potential as a vaccine candidate. The VSV-G is considered the major virulent factor of the VSV, and its elimination is known to serve as an attenuating factor [13]. Moreover, removal of the G gene from the VSV genome, together with the expression and presentation of the spike protein, restricts the viral entry only to cells expressing the human ACE2 receptor, further significantly contributing to its safety profile”

“In conclusion, we generated rVSV-ΔG-spike, a recombinant replication-competent VSV-based vaccine candidate expressing the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. The rVSV-ΔG-spike resembles the SARS-CoV-2 in spike expression properties, antigenicity, and ability to induce neutralizing antibody production. Moreover, single-dose vaccination of hamsters with rVSV-ΔG-spike elicits a safe, effective, and sufficient neutralizing antibody response against SARS-CoV-2 challenge. The vaccination provided protection against SARS-CoV-2 inoculation, as manifested in the rapid return to normal physiological parameters lung protection and rapid viral clearance. These results pave the way for further examination of rVSV-ΔG-spike in clinical trials as a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2.”

Mexico continues to lead deaths. Added the confirmation per capita to understand we are still a long way from really knowing how many people are impacted. On a ship 20% got infected. In slaughter houses we have 80-90% infected. The optimistic slice is this increase confirmation is not necessarily leading to more deaths.

A popular graph going around on social media from Financial Times showing use confirmation increase. However many places are now opening testing to beyond symptomatic people. We are essentially confirming what is already there at some level. The real metric to be concerned about is death…are people that are vulnerable contracting the virus therefore causing an overwhelm health system – therefore causing unnecessary death. So far that is not apparent in the charts below.

Deaths are remarkably low with NC leading for the first time at 55 deaths. Confirmation continues to rise with the populated states increasing CA, TX, FL, AZ…

A big spike in Harris County TX -1994 new confirmation

Below is the latest Texas Medical Center ICU Occupancy – no doubt rising but still only at 24% occupancy. https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

Bedding use is rising but still quite underutilized at 12.5%

Overall trend in Harris County is not alarming with fatality and even adj fatality rate to account for delay from confirmation to death not going exponential.

Mexico has surpassed India and US on the 7 day moving average death.

Vitamin D once again comes back up – https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/uk-ministers-order-urgent-vitamin-d-coronavirus-review?

“studies have suggested that vitamin D supplementation is safe and protects against acute respiratory tract infection. Higher levels of melanin in the skin lead to lower levels of vitamin D creation which are exacerbated in countries which have less sunlight. This can cause immune systems to be weaker.

PHE has acknowledged reports about vitamin D potentially reducing the risk of coronavirus but said there was not enough evidence to support this.

It has since April recommended all people take 10 micrograms of vitamin D a day to maintain bone and muscle health owing to concerns they may not be getting enough sunlight, particularly during the lockdown.”

“as many as 750 NHS staff have received free wellness packs including liposomal vitamin C, vitamin D and zinc from a voluntary initiative called the Frontline Immune Support Team, and there has been some frustration that a more holistic approach to the pandemic has not been implemented.

Singapore general hospital reportedly routinely gives coronavirus patients aged over 50 a mix of vitamin D, magnesium and vitamin B12, while countries which have recently had summers have generally been less affected by the pandemic.”

Interesting results here in terms of segment of population – https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3089934/mongolia-has-few-coronavirus-cases-and-some-say-its

Initially I thought population density but at the bottom they noted

“Inner Mongolia is part of mainland China, which at one point had the world’s highest number of infections. It has a population of about 25 million, and most residents there are ethnic Han Chinese.

The Mongolian population in Inner Mongolia is about 1.5 times that of the independent Outer Mongolia.

“None of the [coronavirus] victims were ethnic Mongolians,” he says. “They were all Han Chinese.””

So whats the secret? Whole food? Cold water therapy?

“Mongolians attribute this low infection rate to several factors: clean air, and a steady diet of natural, free-range meat and milk. They also believe that generations of constant work, riding horses, herding sheep, as well as surviving dramatic temperature swings, from -60 to 45 degrees Celsius, have made them heartier and more resistant to disease”

“Mongolians live and eat simply, with blue skies and fresh meat and milk, and do not experience the stress and consumerism faced by people from other countries.”

“Chinburen believes all the lockdown measures and rules on wearing masks worked because people listened to instructions.”

Another thing we didn’t have in 1918 – https://phys.org/news/2020-06-scientists-source-all-atom-covid-spike.html

“Scientists produce first open source all-atom models of COVID-19 ‘spike’ protein”

“Scientists can use the models to conduct innovative and novel simulation research for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19, according to Im.”

Well Mexico has taken the top place on the death chart for the first time at 1044. Confirmation in Brazil was zero 2 days ago and spiked to 52K today – just show erratic of the datafeed. US death only 250 – but weekend feed.

NY back on the leader board of deaths for the US but only 42

Confirmation continue to grow in Florida, TX, CA

County view you can see its is focused on a certain spots in the state not the whole state

Below is the Harris County TX view with a new metric (7 day MA death/2-4 Wk Back Confirmation) – this would emulate more of the current deaths being attributed to those getting confirmed. Of recent it has risen while the overall current fatality rate has been falling. It has not hit the peal back in beginning of May.

Below timeline graph vs. usual 1st confirmation date to show the perspective on where each country sit now. You can US may have high deaths relative to the European countries – but looking at fatility rates and even the new metric we see the US at the mid to low end. Belgium, France and Italy are 2X the US. Mexico current outcome is not looking good.

Happy Fathers Day!

I wish I could find an appropriate article to start the discussion with uplifting and inspirational thoughts – but as most fathers know its not the glory things that get you through fatherhood. There are just things you got to do to provide for your family.

So here I start with a sewage article noting that Italy would have seemed to have an issue before the Wuhan outbreak – https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200620/Italye28099s-sewage-water-shows-SARS-CoV-2-present-prior-to-reported-outbreak-in-Wuhan.aspx

“Italian researchers have found traces of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in sewage wastewater that indicates that the virus may have been in circulation since December 2019. This controversial discovery shows that even before the first case was reported in Wuhan, China, in late December 2019, the virus had already arrived in northern Italy.”

“a study published in May 2020 by French researchers showed that there was a case of COVID-19 in France on the 27th of December 2019, nearly a month before the nation had reported the first case. The first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported from Spain in late February, early March. A recent study revealed traces of the virus in sewage water in the country in mid-January in Barcelona.”

“This finding comes off the back of other shocking research out of Ecuador that found the SARS-CoV-2 virus in river water, creating a significant transmission risk in developing countries with inadequate sanitation facilities.”

It was shown that sewage testing seems to be a great way to understand the spread – as noted 5/26 – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20105999v1.full.pdf

I would hope we start investing/researching in using our sewage to understand coronavirus. I suspect you could also get a decent correlation with viral load measured to how many infected.

Given how covid spread and the asymptomatic nature of the virus – it should not be surprising that it is undetected for quite sometime before it hits someone that would ring the alarm bell. It would be more surprising that the point of sickness and detection is the start of the issue. It is interesting the North Italian and China connection….Googled – https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/covid-19-did-you-know-about-italys-china-connection/videoshow/74694266.cms

“But what is the connection between Italy and the novel coronavirus considering the deadly virus is reported to have originated from China? The answer is fashionably simple. The northern part of Italy has been a traditionally prosperous region due to the flourishing fashion and garment industry. Most of the big global brands like Gucci and Prada have their base in this region. With China offering one of the cheapest manufacturing options in the world, it came as little surprise that most of these fashion brands were working with China. A large number of these Italian fashion and garment houses had outsourced their manufacturing to Chinese labour, specifically in Wuhan. Italy also has direct flights from Wuhan and reports suggest over 100,000 Chinese citizens were working in Italian factories. Chinese made a slow and steady move into Italy and many Italian fashion firms are now owned by them as well. As per a news report, there are more than 300,000 Chinese and over 90% of them work in the Italian garment industry. As per reports, there are thousands of small companies that are active in exports. This region is also very interconnected as well.”

It is déjà vu again in Beijing. Lockdown again – https://www.chron.com/news/article/Beijing-s-new-coronavirus-outbreak-carries-an-15354718.php

“In much of Beijing, life had returned to something like normal weeks ago. Restaurants welcomed diners, people went back to work, schools reopened. The pandemic seemed like something that was happening to the rest of the world, not China.

Then Beijing announced Thursday its first domestically transmitted coronavirus case in 55 days – a 52-year-old man surnamed Tang. Tang told officials that he had not left the city in more than two weeks and had not been in contact with anyone outside the city. Authorities soon discovered dozens more cases, mostly linked to a sprawling market in Beijing’s southeast. On Saturday, it reimposed strict "wartime" measures to prevent a second wave of infections. Residents, taken aback by a partial lockdown in the city, described something akin to deja vu.”

“The number of cases remains small for a city of 22 million. But authorities are taking few chances: 1,200 flights in and out of Beijing’s two airports were canceled on Wednesday. Schools closed just a month after reopening. Since Tang’s case was announced, the city claims to have tested more than 3.5 million people.”

“The new cases in Beijing raise worrying questions – not only about how the virus could have gotten to Xinfadi market, which is the obvious concern, but also about whether livestock or even fish carry the virus. Chinese officials said the virus could have been circulating near the market since April.”

Brazil approach? Perhaps lost in translation?

“"We are doing something that no one else has done," Pedro Hallal, an epidemiologist at the Federal University of Pelotas, told The Washington Post. "We’re getting near the curve’s peak, and it’s like we are almost challenging the virus. ‘Let’s see how many people you can infect. We want to see how strong you are.’"

No signs of going away….

“There have been other worrying signs from other nations. Singapore and South Korea, which both appeared to have battered back the first wave of the outbreak, have had worrying flare-ups that led them to reimpose some restrictions. New Zealand, which announced it was coronavirus-free on June 8, saw the virus return via travelers from Britain.”

“"I personally believe that over the next year or several years, this virus will take root in our society," Hitoshi Oshitani, a Japanese virologist and government adviser, said in a recent interview, adding that he doubted a vaccine would be effective and that a strategy of waiting for herd immunity was "nonsense."

Database issue today….