Covid19mathblog.com

Data investigation to produce a forecast of covid deaths for this winter. First we need to understand the basic of the coronavirus which was noted back April 26th 2020 – Covid 4/26/20 | COVID 19 Information Page (covid19mathblog.com)

“One thing to unfortunately support the next wave is coming – is the understanding that weather does have a physical impact on the virus. As many of you know already the Covid virus is an envelope virus – meaning it has an outer shell covering the RNA. This shell adapts due to weather. It is very well described in this report – https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080330203401.htm

““Like an M&M in your mouth, the protective covering melts when it enters the respiratory tract,” Dr. Zimmerberg said. “It’s only in this liquid phase that the virus is capable of entering a cell to infect it.”

In spring and summer, however, the temperatures are too high to allow the viral membrane to enter its gel state. Dr. Zimmerberg said that at these temperatures, the individual flu viruses would dry out and weaken, and this would help to account for the ending of flu season.

The finding opens up new possibilities for research, Dr. Zimmerberg said. Strategies to disrupt the virus and prevent it from spreading could involve seeking ways to disrupt the virus’s lipid membrane.

In cold temperatures, the hard lipid shell can be resistant to certain detergents, so one strategy could involve testing for more effective detergents and hand-washing protocols to hinder the spread of the virus.

Similarly, Dr. Zimmerberg added that flu researchers might wish to study whether, in areas affected by a severe form of the flu, people might better protect themselves against getting sick by remaining indoors at warmer temperatures than usual.”

Last statement certainly is true – the behavior in winter likely more inside less sun more central air recirculation etc….- but the physical change of the virus is a real phenomenon and makes sense in terms of evolutionary survival.”

My hypothesis is HVAC temps likely cold enough to cause this encapsulation which plays a part in the summer spikes. Look at the last 4 weeks per capita confirmation most are in the warm states.

Knowing the physics we will see much higher confirmations in the winter as ALL states see cold enough environments that the virus will encapsulate.

The chart below certainly shows vaccines have helped by reducing the fatality rates significantly. However it also shows confirmations are likely coming this fall/winter.

Unfortunately coinciding with reports of vaccine effectiveness concerns beyond 6 months – bulk of vaccination in April – which puts the vaccine effectiveness in question for this Winter.

We do know with much certainty that natural immunization is more effective than vaccines – it would be a decent strategy to be healthy and have taken the vaccine and then to naturally expose oneself to covid and recover.

Knowing what we know now and seeing how things played out – we will see significant confirmations this winter much higher than last year – the positive news the fatality rate will likely be 70% lower – so we will likely see around 1% peak fatality rate. Unfortunately this will be a bigger number times this smaller number. I suspect we could see 2X the level of confirmation last year if we maintain the current trend and not change public building HVAC systems and/or social behaviors.

It would seem based on media that younger people are dying more than before – it has grown but not as much as you would think per the media. The morbid fact the pool of 85+ is lower so the that category has dropped from peak of 35% to 17%. The 0-24 has jumped from 0.14% to 0.4% – so 4X growth but very small numbers.

Deaths are still way lower so the denominator is impacting the percent calc.

Based on the above we can compute the estimated deaths by age for this winter and the odds. Overall deaths this winter SHOULD drop 100K less than last year (40% less) – which would produce 193K deaths (Nov-Mar) for the high estimates. However the chances of death needs to be kept in perspective – the odds of dying in a car as an occupant is 1 in 47,852 – so don’t get in a car if you think that risk is too great. We cannot lockdown society for these types of odds particularly for the youth.

We are still observing greater than normal deaths (~1-2K/wk beyond covid deaths) this is likely driven by our policy to covid which resulted in the lack of health services and/or social impacts.

Once again our policy response needs to be measured with the risk above and the risk to the policy. In hindsight our policy to isolate kids did them a disservice – we see here that the youth got more obese than they were already due to the quarantine. Changes in Body Mass Index Among Children and Adolescents During the COVID-19 Pandemic | Adolescent Medicine | JAMA | JAMA Network

“Youths gained more weight during the COVID-19 pandemic than before the pandemic (Table). The greatest change in the distance from the median BMI for age occurred among 5- through 11-year-olds with an increased BMI of 1.57, compared with 0.91 among 12- through 15-year-olds and 0.48 among 16- through 17-year-olds. Adjusting for height, this translates to a mean gain among 5- through 11-year-olds of 2.30 kg (95% CI, 2.24-2.36 kg) more during the pandemic than during the reference period, 2.31 kg (95% CI, 2.20-2.44 kg) more among 12- through 15-year-olds, and 1.03 kg (95% CI, 0.85-1.20 kg) more among 16- through 17-year-olds. Overweight or obesity increased among 5- through 11-year-olds from 36.2% to 45.7% during the pandemic, an absolute increase of 8.7% and relative increase of 23.8% compared with the reference period (Table). The absolute increase in overweight or obesity was 5.2% among 12- through 15-year-olds (relative increase, 13.4%) and 3.1% (relative increase, 8.3%) among 16- through 17-year-olds. Most of the increase among youths aged 5 through 11 years and 12 through 15 years was due to an increase in obesity.”

Obviously we cant afford this trend as much of the death is tied to obesity.

I talked to someone who was in China during the first SARS issue and they had a policy that all the youth had to be outside during the day and they did sports activity to pass the time. Perhaps we should think about this? China is certainly concerned about their youth – Three hours a week: Play time’s over for China’s young video gamers | Reuters

Look what the Tokyo Medical Association decided to do – New Corona: Tokyo Metropolitan Medical Association Recommends Ivermedictin Administration to Prevent Serious Diseases: Nikkei

“Haruo Ozaki, president of the Tokyo Metropolitan Medical Association, proposed the urgent use of the drug at a press conference on September 9, mainly with the aim of preventing the seriousness of home recuperators in order to respond to the spread of the new coronavirus. He stressed that antipar parasitic drugs such as ivermedictin should be administered to coronal infected people, as they have been shown to prevent serious diseases overseas.

In addition to ivermedine, the government has asked for the use of the steroid-based anti-inflammatory drug dexamethasone. Mr. Ozaki said, "[Both] have few side effects; I want the government to consider it so that it can be treated at the level of a family doctor."

Both ivermedine and dexamethasone are prescribed in Japan. However, it has not been approved as a treatment for corona.”

The US continues to lead in confirmation.

Healthy states do show up low in terms of confirmation and deaths e.g. Colorado

On a per capita view still no conclusive evidence to say vaccination reduces transmission

Covid19mathblog.com

“When the whole world is running towards a cliff, he who is running in the opposite direction appears to have lost his mind.” CS Lewis
In todays climate there are two cliffs – one made for the right and one made for the left – and anyone else has lost their mind.

Two major topics I want to review. First the continued vaxx people angst against the unvaxx to the point it seems they relish each unvaxx death?! (just to be clear I vaccinated plus I still got covid so my decisions are based on my risk/reward – I do travel often so the reward of being allowed to enter private business who have a choice on what their risk/reward are – made it worthwhile for me plus my age) It would seem no one would be too devastated if the unvaxx died from their OWN poor decision BUT the big issue being promoted is that their choice impacts others. One impact is that an unvaxx would overwhelm our healthcare system – well this is not really consistent but coming from the current fear of the virus as for decades what has overwhelmed our system and we built for it – is our poor lifestyle choice – this is a hard truth per the obesity/heart/cancer stats. This lifestyle is having an effect with our covid numbers with most hospitalization and deaths are DIRECTLY tied to comorbidities which naturally is a function of age but the odds are dramatically improved by have just one comorbidity vs. 2. It is a hard truth that an obese person will have a much higher viral load and cause a drop in vaccine effectiveness (www.npr.org). If stuck in a poor ventilated room who would you rather be playing the covid roulette wheel – a healthy unvaccinated person or a multiple comorbidity person who has been vaccinated – both socializing equally – I would go with the healthy person as their immune system likely reducing the viral load via breathing less and as noted on NPR article the physical volume of virus space can be much lower in that individual. The push to vax all without merit for each individual lifestyle choice is disingenuous. Pushing to vax those that are unhealthy is potentially a reasonable society request – but for an ALL push is not balanced and an unfair removal for an individual choices that have been made. The push is so hard they even demand the naturally infected to vaccinate even though much data and common sense would indicate natural immunity is much more potent than vaccination immunity. Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections | medRxiv

“SARS-CoV-2-naive vaccinees had a 13.06-fold (95% CI, 8.08 to 21.11) increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021. The increased risk was significant (P<0.001) for symptomatic disease as well. When allowing the infection to occur at any time before vaccination (from March 2020 to February 2021), evidence of waning natural immunity was demonstrated, though SARS-CoV-2 naive vaccinees had a 5.96-fold (95% CI, 4.85 to 7.33) increased risk for breakthrough infection and a 7.13-fold (95% CI, 5.51 to 9.21) increased risk for symptomatic disease. SARS-CoV-2-naive vaccinees were also at a greater risk for COVID-19-related-hospitalizations compared to those that were previously infected.”

Commentary on the above study in Science – Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine—but no infection parties, please | Science | AAAS (sciencemag.org)

“The newly released data show people who once had a SARS-CoV-2 infection were much less likely than vaccinated people to get Delta, develop symptoms from it, or become hospitalized with serious COVID-19.”

“The researchers also found that people who had SARS-CoV-2 previously and then received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine were more highly protected against reinfection than those who once had the virus and were still unvaccinated.”

“The research impresses Nussenzweig and other scientists who have reviewed a preprint of the results, posted yesterday on medRxiv. “It’s a textbook example of how natural immunity is really better than vaccination,” says Charlotte Thålin, a physician and immunology researcher at Danderyd Hospital and the Karolinska Institute who studies the immune responses to SARS-CoV-2. “To my knowledge, it’s the first time [this] has really been shown in the context of COVID-19.””

““We continue to underestimate the importance of natural infection immunity … especially when [infection] is recent,” says Eric Topol, a physician-scientist at Scripps Research. “And when you bolster that with one dose of vaccine, you take it to levels you can’t possibly match with any vaccine in the world right now.””

This brings another hypothetical if stuck in a poor ventilated room who would you rather be playing the covid roulette wheel – a healthy vaccinated person but never had covid or a healthy already infected and recovered form covid person but unvaccinated – both socializing equally – I would go with natural infection immunity person. IF we are going for the lowest covid chance – the passports should be healthy breakthrough person – show vaccine and infected PCR test and BMI number.

The next excuse for the vitriol to the unvaxx is the unvaxx are carriers of virus which can cause additional transmission and potential variant. A huge blame game without much proof other than measured viral load via PCR without any account for behavioral and environment. Variant development is likely a function of viral load. The variant with most impact likely needs to be in a place where the “simulation/monte carlo draw” of the virus permutation can fester and then also spread once finding a good permutation. If we look at the table of variants from WHO Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants (who.int) We can see variants are inevitable – it is the potent ones we need to worry about and how the potent ones are created. If we look at those potent variants they are coming from third world countries were the viral loads are not just a function of vaxx/unvaxx but the much lower hygiene standards – many still don’t have toilets and running water! The impact of vaccine is likely to be amplified in those countries vs. countries such as the US. IF the primary goal is to reduce the super variant formation probability– the best strategy is probably to vaccinate the third world country and upgrade their hygiene. It is a hard truth we have limited volume capacity in manufacturing vaccine – every additional vaccination we do here in the US is one less to the world (macro discussion not the current distribution design – obviously the current vaccine in a chiller in a US hospital can’t make it to the third world – if we target this approach the vaccines would not be in the hospital in the US). IF we have dosed the comorbidity people and continue to maintain our hygiene and treatment standards plus promote a healthy lifestyle it would be much more effective to reduce the likelihood of a super variant by supplying the rest of the world with vaccines. Any thought of booster needs to be balance with this bigger picture. The numbers already show the vaccines are doing what they are designed to do reduce hospitalization and death – unfortunately not infections. I stay with my estimate 40% breakthrough.

The next issue is the collateral damage we have placed to the youth as we continue to live our lives in fear and implementing policy to reduce the policy maker demographic impact ignoring the consequences placed on the youth demographic who have the least to gain as many don’t even have symptoms from covid-19. We are likely harming them. Before I start this discussion I have seen many espouse policy for the youth and many have NO kids! I have 5 kids and fully understand the issue with raising kids in this new society.

If you know that natural immunization is better than the vaccine AND that the results of being infected when young and healthy is very limited it would clearly argue that the vaccine should go to the world not our healthy youth. Of course our youths are likely to get sick now – they have been quarantined for 2 years with heavy dosage of hand sanitizers and Clorox bleach. The immune system is a muscle – use it or lose it and we did a disservice to them by isolating them for so long. However in general most youth still will not have any issue fighting off covid-19 https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/new-zealand-children-falling-ill-in-high-numbers-due-to-covid-immunity-debt

“The size and seriousness of New Zealand’s outbreak is likely being fed by what some paediatric doctors have called an “immunity debt” – where people don’t develop immunity to other viruses suppressed by Covid lockdowns, causing cases to explode down the line.”

Could there could be a silver-lining with covid – perhaps covid actually boost our immunity? Look at Sweden data which they don’t have mask mandates and have normal schooling over the last 2 years- Luftvägspatogener Prov analyserade av Karolinska Universitetslaboratoriet till och med vecka 28 2019

I have had a disdain for the NY Times but I am open to eventually anyone coming to some rationale and not always on a political agenda. I very much agree school kids are not alright. – Opinion | The School Kids Are Not Alright – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

“An analysis by N.W.E.A., a nonprofit that provides academic assessments, for example, found that Latino third graders scored 17 percentile points lower in math in the spring of 2021, compared to the typical achievements of Latino third graders in the spring of 2019. The decline was 15 percentile points for Black students and 14 percentile points for Native American students, compared with similar students in the past.”

“A sobering report by the consulting firm McKinsey sounds a similar alarm. Among other things, it notes that the pandemic has widened existing opportunity and achievement gaps and made high schoolers more likely to drop out. As the authors say: “The fallout from the pandemic threatens to depress this generation’s prospects and constrict their opportunities far into adulthood. The ripple effects may undermine their chances of attending college and ultimately finding a fulfilling job that enables them to support a family.” Unless steps are taken to fill the pandemic learning gap, the authors say, these people will earn less over their lifetimes. The impact on the U.S. economy could range from $128 billion to $188 billion every year as the cohort enters the work force.”

“Children’s advocates at the United Nations got it right last month when they admonished governments around the globe for reacting to the pandemic by ending in-person schooling for long periods instead of using mitigation strategies to contain infection. This communiqué, issued by UNESCO and UNICEF, noted that the shutdown placed children at risk of developmental setbacks from which many of them might never recover, pointed out that primary and secondary schools are not among the main drivers of the pandemic and called for governments to resume in-person instruction as quickly as possible.”

They like to focus on the disadvantaged in the article but the plain fact it impacted ALL our youth regardless of society placement. We cannot/should not continue what we know as a hard truth that online learning is limited and is not as beneficial as onsite for most. The youth need the physical interaction with their fellow students and teachers. We are 2 years into it and we need to come to consensus to make public buildings with HVAC system designed to reduce viral load by pulling more fresh air at a cost for more power demand and some infrastructure cost. We can easily measure this through CO2 level indication. In Taiwan they have limits of 1000ppm. This should have been in the infrastructure bill. We need to weigh the impact of the youth more – we need to understand and mitigate our risk and get back to life.

A follow up to Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) discussed on 7/30/21 showing that potentially vaccines can actually cause infection – Covid 7/30/21 | COVID 19 Information Page (covid19mathblog.com) – we now have a study released focused on this issue with covid-19 and ADE – once again it doesn’t mean vaccines are not doing what they are supposed to do which is to reduce death and hospitalization likely via boosting the immune system – but we shouldn’t freak out if we see more confirmed cases if ADE is real. Perhaps indicates that the immunocompromised shouldn’t take the old vaccine? – Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants. A potential risk for mass vaccination? – Journal of Infection

“•

Infection-enhancing antibodies have been detected in symptomatic Covid-19.

•

Antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) is a potential concern for vaccines.

•

Enhancing antibodies recognize both the Wuhan strain and delta variants.

•

ADE of delta variants is a potential risk for current vaccines.

•

Vaccine formulations lacking ADE epitope are suggested.”

The US tops the chart in confirmation and deaths. We sit at over 66% confirmed/or fully vaccinated. Fatality rate sits at 1.6%.

This spike is not unforeseen – see below the top 3 states. This happened last year. The big difference is the deaths are lower and the confirmations are higher – which is driven by a multiple issues: variant, less lockdown, more vaccinated, ADE? The worse part for covid is during cold season – it’s a cold/flu virus! – we need to focus on health now. The summer spike is a function of people going inside and running a closed loop HVAC system. North states see less of this as they are more prone to less HVAC plus open windows etc….

As noted the leaders FL, TX , and CA in both death and confirmation

If we look at a per capita view we still cannot say unvaxx is causing high confirmations. The South certainly showing issues – but its all about the staying indoors and poor HVAC setup.

The death numbers in FL are slightly suspect given they are not tied to a county. Note we don’t have TX county vacc per capita.

Covid19mathblog.com

Can we admit there is more than deaths at risk to covid – can we also admit there is great risk to other parts of life beyond infection to covid in our approach to preventing covid? First hand I have seen the psychological damage done to my teenage kids. A top straight A student to doesn’t care about school nearly failing. In every day life before covid we managed the risk/reward. The unknown of covid correctly made us respond perhaps irrationally but we have the data now. What if we knew ahead of time that the vaccine were not going to be as effective? Would we have approached the problem differently? Would we have promoted health over quarantine – could we have made people eat healthier and exercise knowing that was ALL that could be done to save them? Telling people to stay home resulted in stress eating and watching Netflix may likely have done more harm than good. My latest thoughts on the surge of sickness is the concept the immune system is a muscle – use it or lose it. What do you expect if you are inside and separated from society and dosed with hand sanitizers – then a year later you go out into society…..what do you expect? Its like doing 50 push ups a day then stopping for a year and then expecting to do even 20?

Articles are coming out to really questioning our approach – if we don’t question we won’t learn.

Testing pointless now? Perhaps even vaccination….get healthy! https://amp.smh.com.au/world/europe/astrazeneca-lead-scientist-says-delta-makes-mass-testing-pointless-in-uk-20210811-p58hpe.html?

“The Delta variant of COVID-19 has wrecked any chance of herd immunity, according to the Oxford scientist who led the AstraZeneca vaccine team, as he called for an end to mass testing so Britain could start to live with the virus.”

“Professor Andrew Pollard, who led the Oxford vaccine team, said it was clear that the Delta variant can still infect people who have been vaccinated, which made herd immunity impossible to reach, even with Britain’s high uptake.”

““We don’t have anything that will stop transmission, so I think we are in a situation where herd immunity is not a possibility, and I suspect the virus will throw up a new variant that is even better at infecting vaccinated individuals.””

“Analysis by Public Health England has shown that when vaccinated people catch the virus, they have a similar viral load to unvaccinated individuals, and may be as infectious.”

““We need to move away from reporting infections to actually reporting the number of people who are ill. Otherwise we are going to be frightening ourselves with very high numbers that don’t translate into disease burden.””

““I think as we look at the adult population going forward, if we continue to chase community testing and are worried about those results, we’re going to end up in a situation where we’re constantly boosting to try and deal with something which is not manageable,” he said.”

““It needs to be moving to clinically driven testing in which people are willing to get tested and treated and managed, rather than lots of community testing. If someone is unwell, they should be tested, but for their contacts, if they’re not unwell, then it makes sense for them to be in school and being educated.””

“Dr Ruchi Sinha, consultant paediatrician at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, told MPs and peers that choosing not to vaccinate children would be unlikely to cause problems in the health service.

“What matters is the burden of patient hospitalisation and critical care and actually there hasn’t been as much with this Delta variant,” she said. “They tend to be the children who have got their comorbidities, obesity, or severe neurological problems and those children are already considered for vaccination. COVID-19 on its own in paediatrics is not the problem.”

What have we done to the current youth and the future….the good news the stress from the mom is not materially past to the child – there is hope…. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.10.21261846v1.full

“The human brain is unique in its prolonged developmental timeline [13, 14]. Infants are born with relatively immature brains that, like them, are simultaneously competent and vulnerable. Infants are inherently competent in their ability to initiate relationships, explore, seek meaning, and learn; but are vulnerable and depend entirely on caregivers for their survival, emotional security, modeling of behaviors, and the nature and rules of the physical and socio-cultural world that they inhabit [15]. The infant brain is likewise born with immense capacity to learn, remodel, and adapt, but is sensitive and vulnerable to neglect and environmental exposures that begin even before birth [16-18]. Optimal brain development depends on secure and trusting relationships with knowledgeable caregivers who are responsive to the infant’s needs and interests. Neurodevelopmental processes, including myelination and synaptogenesis, for example, are stimulated by external cues and experiences like maternal interaction, and physical skin-to-skin “kangaroo” care, touch, and warmth [19-22]. The brain’s adaptive plasticity, however, is a double-edged sword. While positive and enriching environments can promote healthy brain development [23-27], neglect insecurity, stress, and lack of stimulation can impair maturing brain systems and disrupt cognitive and behavioral outcomes”

“Maternal stress, anxiety, and depression in pregnancy can impact the developing fetal and infant brain structure and connectivity, leading to potential delays in motor, cognitive, and behavioral development [31, 32]. It is believed that alterations in fetal exposure to stress-related hormones, including cortisol, affect theses changes in brain structure and function [33-35]. Past analysis has revealed strong associations between maternal prenatal stress and anxiety related to maternal or paternal displacement and job loss and infant health (birth weight and gestation duration), mortality, temperament, and cognitive development [36]. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, maternal and paternal job-loss, employment furloughs, or increased food / housing insecurity have been experienced by many families. Survey results at the beginning of the pandemic showed significantly increased rates of clinically relevant symptoms of maternal depression and anxiety”

“Overall, we find that measured verbal, non-verbal, and overall cognitive scores are significantly lower since the beginning of the pandemic. Looking further, we find that children born before the pandemic and followed through the initial stages do not show a reduction in skills or performance, but rather that young infants born since the beginning of the pandemic show significantly lower performance than in-fants born before January 2019. Thus, our results seem to suggest that early development is impaired by the environmental conditions brought on by the pandemic.

In contrast to other on-going studies through the pandemic [37, 39], we did not find an increase in general maternal stress and, thus, this was not a significant predictor factor in our analysis.”

Another study indicating blood group O showing lower risk for Covid – and now perhaps an explanation – The good news O group represents ~40-50%….bad news A 40% https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0753332221000135

“Free unbound iron possibly contributes to the hypercoagulation and inflammation found in severe COVID-19.

The nonapoptotic and immunogenic cell death “ferroptosis” may be a potential contributor to the pathogenesis of COVID-19.

The bioactive compound lactoferrin and other iron chelators may provide a high therapeutic value in the treatment of COVID-19.

The relatively lower risk for COVID-19 found in individuals with blood group O may be linked to a lower serum iron status in these individuals.”
“Interestingly, increasing evidence is rapidly emerging on the association between blood groups and COVID-19 infection, with blood type A individuals being at the highest risk and those of blood type O at the lowest risk for developing the disease”

“A few studies reported that some serum iron indicators are lower in individuals with blood group O compared to those with other blood groups”

“Since iron overload contributes to COVID-19, one of the potential treatments used is lactoferrin (Lf). This glycoprotein has remained a part of the body’s natural immunity due to its range of therapeutic effects”

“Another method of treating iron overload lies in the usage of iron chelators. Excessive amounts of free iron in the blood of patients with iron overload can cause cardiac iron toxicity due to a rise in ROS production. This has been treated with the chelators, including deferoxamine, deferasirox, and deferiprone; each with different properties that may determine their efficiency in relation to treating iron overload.”

More proof no need shame the unvaccinated – they are not causing anymore harm than those vaccinated. One could argue they could be overwhelming the healthcare system BUT also being obese, smoking, drinking, drug abuse ALSO overwhelm the health system. It also promotes wearing face mask forever….but does it balance the psychological issues- I don’t know…. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v2

“Using PCR threshold cycle (Ct) data from a single large contract laboratory, we show that individuals in Wisconsin, USA had similar viral loads in nasal swabs, irrespective of vaccine status, during a time of high and increasing prevalence of the Delta variant. Infectious SARS-CoV-2 was isolated from 51 of 55 specimens (93%) with Ct <25 from both vaccinated and unvaccinated persons, indicating that most individuals with Ct values in this range (Wilson 95% CI 83%-97%) shed infectious virus regardless of vaccine status. Notably, 68% of individuals infected despite vaccination tested positive with Ct <25, including at least 8 who were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Our data substantiate the idea that vaccinated individuals who become infected with the Delta variant may have the potential to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. Vaccinated individuals should continue to wear face coverings in indoor and congregate settings, while also being tested for SARS-CoV-2 if they are exposed or experience COVID-like symptoms.”

Covid treatment potential – https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/a-readily-available-drug-may-help-fight-covid-19

“Laboratory studies indicate that a cheap generic drug reduces SARS-CoV-2 infection in human cells by up to 70%.

The drug, called fenofibrate, regulates cholesterol levels but also destabilizes the spike protein on SARS-CoV-2 and inhibits binding to human cells.

It was effective against all the SARS-CoV-2 variants that the scientists tested in vitro.”

Irrational response – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/19/well/live/coronavirus-restaurants-classrooms-salons.html

“Intuition tells us a plastic shield would be protective against germs. But scientists who study aerosols, air flow and ventilation say that much of the time, the barriers don’t help and probably give people a false sense of security. And sometimes the barriers can make things worse.

Research suggests that in some instances, a barrier protecting a clerk behind a checkout counter may redirect the germs to another worker or customer. Rows of clear plastic shields, like those you might find in a nail salon or classroom, can also impede normal air flow and ventilation.

Under normal conditions in stores, classrooms and offices, exhaled breath particles disperse, carried by air currents and, depending on the ventilation system, are replaced by fresh air roughly every 15 to 30 minutes. But erecting plastic barriers can change air flow in a room, disrupt normal ventilation and create “dead zones,” where viral aerosol particles can build up and become highly concentrated.”

Noted before but once again there is something going on with vaccine which if given to the group who already has less chance to be infected or even harmed by Covid – it does question giving dose to young females – https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-Covid-vaccines-may-affect-periods.-Are-we-allowed-to-talk-about-this/amp

“Millions of British women have been jabbed, so 30,304 reports will be a tiny proportion: a negligible number, you might say. But it doesn’t seem negligible if you’re one of those women. I imagine many will keep a record of their cycle, perhaps in their diary or on an app, and will have noticed a change. In the US, one research survey tracking menstrual changes brought on by the Covid jabs received 140,000 responses. The two biological anthropologists conducting the research said they had expected to receive around 500 when they launched their survey.

The real number of cases in the UK is possibly quite a bit higher than 30,304. But it is awkward talking about what the jab has done to our periods. Friends tell me they’ve also been affected and nope, they didn’t report it either. Nobody wants to be thought of as hysterical. Emotional. A tad neurotic. So instead these conversations are going on discreetly, on WhatsApp chats, on internet threads, in hushed tones. Who wants to be accused of being a dreaded ‘anti-vaxxer’?

Is it ‘anti-vaxx’ to be concerned that these jabs may be having an effect on our menstrual cycles?”

Moderna issues? Not very much talked about had to find this article behind a paywall someone archived it so you can see it – https://archive.is/4TH8s

“Federal health officials are investigating emerging reports that the Moderna coronavirus vaccine may be associated with a higher risk of a heart condition called myocarditis in younger adults than previously believed, according to two people familiar with the review who emphasized the side effect still probably remains uncommon.

The investigation, which involves the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is focusing on Canadian data that suggests the Moderna vaccine may carry a higher risk for young people than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, especially for males below the age of 30 or so. The authorities also are scrutinizing data from the United States to try to determine whether there is evidence of an increased risk from Moderna in the U.S. population.”

““We have not come to a conclusion on this,” one of the people familiar with the investigation said. “The data are not slam bang.””

“One individual said the Canadian data, which was provided by that country’s government, indicates that there might be a 2½ times higher incidence of myocarditis in those who get Moderna compared with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Myocarditis is an inflammation of the heart.

The myocarditis side effect is extremely rare and even if it is more likely in people receiving the Moderna vaccine, it probably is still very uncommon. Officials want to be careful not to cause alarm among the public, especially when officials are trying to persuade more people to be vaccinated amid a surge of cases fueled by the fast-moving delta variant.”

The US surges to the top of 7 day confirmation. Indonesia still leading the death chart. US confirmation per capita is getting up there. Note the Princess Diamond level is 20% which was our worse case scenario.

The US for sue in a 4th wave – this did happen last summer

We are testing more than we did last summer – but double the confirmation vs last summer- death very similar to last year. However I would contend vs. last year not as much quarantine and yet at the same number. Same three states lead as last summer.

FL, TX, and CA

Per capita county data still doesn’t show clearly the vaccinated or unvaccinated is the main driver….likely lifestyle playing the larger part. The south has been warm people inside more often.

Death is still not showing up a lot like in the winter. We have a few months left to get healthy before the real Covid season hits.

Covid19mathblog.com

Perhaps what makes this a “perfect” virus from China is not the viral lethality of it (1.7% US fatality rate) – but the ability to break the country apart via the debate of vaccination. As noted in this opinion piece the focus of immunity and immune health perhaps is the right “passport” – https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/why-covid-19-vaccines-should-not-be-required-for-all-americans

“instead of talking about the vaccinated and the unvaccinated, we should be talking about the immune and the non-immune. Immunity is something people can test for with a simple antibody test. I would never recommend that anyone intentionally acquire the infection in order to get natural immunity, but vaccine passports and proof-of-vaccine documents should recognize it.

Now, if someone does not have natural immunity from prior infection, then they should immediately go out and get the vaccine. I’m pro-vaccine. But the issue of the appropriate clinical indication of the vaccine is not an all-or-nothing phenomenon, as we frequently see in American culture and politics.

I’m perplexed at the vitriol directed at folks who are reluctant to get vaccinated. For some, the biggest driver of their hesitancy is the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which has failed to issue the long-overdue full approval of the COVID-19 vaccines due to stability testing which has nothing to do with safety. The goal of our pandemic response should be to reduce death, illness and disability, but instead what you’re seeing is a movement that has morphed from being pro-vaccine to vaccine fanaticism at all costs.”

He fails to note or even push harder the message should not be vaccination – but to get healthy. We should promote vaccines for those that are far from healthy – but there is a path to get healthy in 1 month. Fat Sick and Nearly Dead Documentary showed/proved it can be done – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1z5WjjVL5c

In the last blog https://covid19mathblog.com/2021/08/covid-8-7-21/ we showed being obese increases your propensity to be a carrier of the virus – I would contend more than a healthy young unvaccinated person. The vitriol for the unvaccinated is inconsistent with how the health of society has crumbled. The excuse is Covid is transmissible and will have significant impact to the hospital load. Perhaps obesity doesn’t spread via a virus – but it does spread via society acceptance and continued propaganda of unhealthy food. AND for sure it has significant impact on hospital load.

A compromised vaccination report documenting that those previously infected can get just 1 shot….https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2782762

“individuals with a documented prior COVID-19 infection may be sufficiently protected from reinfection after a single mRNA vaccine dose, which could free up availability of millions of additional doses. We evaluated the SARS-CoV-2 spike immunoglobin (Ig) G antibody levels after 1 and 2 BNT162b2 doses in previously infected individuals compared with those without previous infection.”

The youth vaccination push is irrational given the risk/reward profile. It is one thing to contract the disease through chance (11% confirmed/capita for US) and then suffer the issues with it – vs. to purposely subject your child to an issue and develop issues from that – the guilt has to be way larger. Vaccination for a youth is not clear cut. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2783052?

“Conclusions and Relevance In this small case series study, myocarditis was diagnosed in children after COVID-19 vaccination, most commonly in boys after the second dose. In this case series, in short-term follow-up, patients were mildly affected. The long-term risks associated with postvaccination myocarditis remain unknown. Larger studies with longer follow-up are needed to inform recommendations for COVID-19 vaccination in this population”

NPR debating the CDC? In this article evolutionary biologist and biostatistician Tom Wenseleers at the University of Leuven in Belgium argue that CDC is overstating. Should govt overstate for the “benefit” of society or should they just be more factual and wish for the best from society? Surprise the article is not banned on the internet by now…. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/11/1026190062/covid-delta-variant-transmission-cdc-chickenpox

“When scientists measure a virus’s transmissibility, they often use what’s known as R0, or "R nought. " It’s the number of people a sick person will infect when the entire population is vulnerable to the virus.

"So it’s the virus’s potential of spreading, given ideal conditions for the virus, when no one has any immunity," says computational biologist Karthik Gangavarapu at the Scripps Research Institute.

For example, the flu has an R0 of about two. Each person infected with flu passes the virus on to two people on average. Some people will infect more than two people, and some will infect fewer. But over time, the average will be about two.”

“Chickenpox, on the other hand, is way more contagious, Gangavarapu says. Chickenpox has an R0 of about nine or 10. So each person with chickenpox infects about 10 other people on average. Outbreaks are explosive.

For SARS-CoV-2, the R0 has actually risen over the course of the pandemic as the virus evolved. When the coronavirus first emerged in 2019, SARS-CoV-2 was slightly more contagious than flu, Gangavarapu says. "The initial COVID-19 strain had an R0 between two and three."”

"For the delta variant, the R0 is now calculated at between six and seven," Wenseleers says. So it’s two- to three-times as contagious as the original version of SARS-CoV-2 (R0 = 2 to 3) but less contagious than the chickenpox (R0 = 9 to 10).”

“So why did the CDC say the delta variant was "just as transmissible as" the chickenpox?

For one, the leaked document underestimated the R0 for chickenpox and overestimated the R0 for the delta variant. "The R0 values for delta were preliminary and calculated from data taken from a rather small sample size," a federal official told NPR. The value for the chickenpox (and other R0s in the slideshow) came from a graphic from The New York Times, which wasn’t completely accurate.

"At the end of the day, this delta variant is much more transmissible than the alpha variant," the official added. "That’s the message people need to take from this." The official requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media on this topic.

The difference between an R0 of three and six is massive. For example, with the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, one person would infect about three people, and each of those people would infect three more. So after only two rounds of transmission, cases would rise by nine (3 x 3 = 9). After three rounds, cases would rise by 27 (3 x 3 x 3 = 27). But with the delta variant, the first person would infect six others, who would each then infect six more people. So after two rounds of transmission, cases would already rise by 36 (6 x 6 = 36). After three rounds, cases would surge by 216 (6 x 6 x 6 = 216).

With an R0 of six, delta will be extremely difficult to slow down unless populations reach high levels of vaccination, Wenseleers says. And even then surges in cases will still occur, as is now happening in Iceland and parts of the U.S. The vaccine is less than 90% effective at stopping infections with delta, meaning at least 1 in 10 people could have breakthrough infections. And vaccinated people can still spread the virus. In addition, people who aren’t vaccinated have a very high risk of infection, Wenseleers says. "Anyone that chooses not to get vaccinated will in all likelihood get infected by the delta variant over the coming months."”

Not the best news for vaccines…good for moderna as they are “beating” Pfizer vacccines in VE 76% vs 42%….the message really needs to be get healthy…also PLEASE review demographic data in all studies.. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf

“The effectiveness against infection was lower for mRNA-1273 (76%, 95% CI: 58-87%) compared

to prior months, with an even more pronounced reduction for BNT162b2 (42%, 95% CI: 13-

62%) (Figure 2A; Table 3). Importantly, the effectiveness of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2

against COVID-19 associated hospitalization has remained more consistently high (Figure

2B, Table 4)”

“These cohorts are not demographically

representative of the American population (Table 1, Table S1), which may limit the

generalizability of our findings”

More vaccine reviews – https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-drugs-regulator-looking-new-possible-side-effects-mrna-vaccines-2021-08-11/

“Three new conditions reported by a small number of people after vaccination with COVID-19 shots from Pfizer (PFE.N) and Moderna (MRNA.O) are being studied to assess if they may be possible side-effects, Europe’s drugs regulator said on Wednesday.”

A very informative article – good read for those interested in variants…somber ending – https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/dissecting-the-unusual-biology-of-the-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-69068

Good news for school opening – https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-study-finds-lower-prevalence-in-schools

“A coronavirus (COVID-19) study has found that prevalence of the virus was lower in schools in June 2021 than in the autumn term 2020.”

Herd immunity a myth…but yet the only answer is vaccines…what about getting healthy? …https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/12/herd-immunity-is-mythical-with-the-covid-delta-variant-experts-say.html

“Achieving herd immunity with Covid vaccines when the highly infectious delta variant is spreading is “not a possibility,” a leading epidemiologist said.”

“What was important, Altmann said, was that “the more people on the globe effectively vaccinated, the fewer viral copies we’ll have on the planet, thus the less spread and fewer lungs in which for virus to mutate and spread the next wave of variants.””

Indonesia continues to lead – positive news no other country above 1K deaths

The third wave for sure is real. The good news the deaths are not expanding as in previous waves

FL and TX leads in the states – they are doing well in the vaccinated category relatively speaking.

Certainly not clear that vaccines reduce infection rates – other factors play a larger role it would seem.

Confirmations have been growing – death hot spots are still limited.

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccination effectiveness wanning this study show effectiveness dropping close to 50%– this study does try to demonstrate that vaccinated people have potentially lower viral load than ones without via Ct testing. Unfortunately demographics not broken out on the Ct to see if other effects causing this. https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf

“After adjusting for age, sex, region, ethnicity and index of multiple

deprivation (IMD) [14], for all swab-positives, we estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) in

round 12 of 64% (11%, 85%) and 49% (22%, 67%) in round 13. For those with symptoms

we estimated VE of 83% (19%, 97%) in round 12 and 59% (23%, 78%) in round 13.”

One reason to need to break up the Ct demographic because we know for a fact your lifestyle makes a big deal for vaccine effectiveness. In fact we should potentially banned process food for a month to get this virus in control. I would fear less a healthy vaccinated person vs an obese multiple comorbidity vaccinated person. This likely also explains why the numbers are worse in the West world vs. Asia – https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/11/24/782079520/excess-weight-can-weaken-the-flu-shot

“But scientists have come to realize that flu vaccines are less effective for people who are overweight or obese. Considering that excess weight affects more than two-thirds of the U.S. adult population, that’s a significant shortcoming.

Researchers are studying why that’s the case, with an eye toward developing better flu vaccines.”

“"The virus is able to grow to higher [concentrations] and spread deeper in your lungs, which is not what you want during an influenza infection," she says.

And people weren’t simply getting sicker — they were also more likely to spread the disease. That has the potential to amplify a flu outbreak.”

Data supporting healthy youth obtaining Covid-19 unless they want to be on vaccines the rest of their lives? – https://insight.jci.org/articles/view/150909

“In this study, we evaluated humoral immune responses in 69 children and adolescents with asymptomatic or mild symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. We detected robust IgM, IgG, and IgA antibody responses to a broad array of SARS-CoV-2 antigens at the time of acute infection and 2 and 4 months after acute infection in all participants. Notably, these antibody responses were associated with virus neutralizing activity that was still detectable 4 months after acute infection in 94% of children. Moreover, antibody responses and neutralizing activity in sera from children and adolescents were comparable or superior to those observed in sera from 24 adults with mild symptomatic infection. Taken together, these findings indicate children and adolescents with mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection generate robust and durable humoral immune responses likely contribute to protection from reinfection.”

Potentially another treatment – when will any of these treatment beyond Regeneron get fast tracked? https://www.jpost.com/health-science/covid-90-percent-of-patients-treated-with-new-israeli-drug-discharged-in-5-days-675961

“Some 93% of 90 coronavirus serious patients treated in several Greek hospitals with a new drug developed by a team at Tel Aviv’s Sourasky Medical Center as part of the Phase II trial of the treatment were discharged in five days or fewer.

The Phase II trial confirmed the results of Phase I, which was conducted in Israel last winter and saw 29 out of 30 patients in moderate to serious condition recover within days.”

“Arber and his team, including Dr. Shiran Shapira, developed the drug based on a molecule that the professor has been studying for 25 years called CD24, which is naturally present in the body.

“It is important to remember that 19 out of 20 COVID-19 patients do not need any therapy,” Arber said. “After a window of five to 12 days, some 5% of the patients start to deteriorate.”

“If the results are confirmed, he vowed that the treatment can be made available relatively quickly and at a low cost.”

Another point that natural immunity is superior else why would you try to harvest their antibodies? IF everyone including healthy get the vaccine the ultrapotent antibody perhaps would not be discovered/created. FYI convalescent= (of a person) recovering from an illness or operation. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/30/science.abh1766

“We identify four receptor-binding domain targeting antibodies from three early-outbreak convalescent donors with potent neutralizing activity against 23 variants including the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, B.1.429, B.1.526 and B.1.617 VOCs. Two antibodies are ultrapotent, with sub-nanomolar neutralization titers (IC50 0.3 to 11.1 ng/mL; IC80 1.5 to 34.5 ng/mL). We define the structural and functional determinants of binding for all four VOC-targeting antibodies and show that combinations of two antibodies decrease the in vitro generation of escape mutants, suggesting their potential in mitigating resistance development.”

“Our results show that highly potent neutralizing antibodies with activity against VOCs was present in at least 3 of 4 convalescent subjects who had been infected with ancestral variants of SARS-CoV-2”

Indonesia continues to lead the death charts.

Over 35% of Europe has been confirmed

FL and TX continue to lead the US

Interesting to observe San Juan leading the 7 day per capita confirm given 88% vaccinated

Had to change the hot spot to 500 confirmed vs. 250 – so we are getting confirmed increase….however deaths are still low

Covid19mathblog.com

I am sure somehow we can politicize this report given coming from a republican but I guess IF you have that attitude that anything they say is wrong you won’t agree a broken clock is right twice a day. Certainly there are decent questions brought up to the origin of covid-19 report – and likely pushes the odds that it was leaked from the lab. https://gop-foreignaffairs.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ORIGINS-OF-COVID-19-REPORT.pdf

“Based on the material collected and analyzed by the Committee Minority Staff, the preponderance of

evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 was accidentally released from a Wuhan Institute of Virology

laboratory sometime prior to September 12, 2019. The virus, or the viral sequence that was

genetically manipulated, was likely collected in a cave in Yunnan province, PRC, between 2012 and

2015. Researchers at the WIV, officials within the CCP, and potentially American citizens directly

engaged in efforts to obfuscate information related to the origins of the virus and to suppress public

debate of a possible lab leak.”

“The sudden removal of the WIV’s virus and sample database in the middle of the night on

September 12, 2019 and without explanation;

Safety concerns expressed by top PRC scientists in 2019 and unusually scheduled maintenance at

the WIV;

Athletes at the Military World Games held in Wuhan in October 2019 who became sick with

symptoms similar to COVID-19 both while in Wuhan and also shortly after returning to their

home countries;

Satellite imagery of Wuhan in September and October 2019 that showed a significant uptick in

the number of people at local hospitals surrounding the WIV’s headquarters, coupled with an

unusually high number of patients with symptoms similar to COVID-19;

The installation of a People’s Liberation Army’s bioweapons expert as the head of the WIV’s

Biosafety Level 4 lab (BSL-4), possibly as early as late 2019; and

Actions by the Chinese Communist Party and scientists working at or affiliated with the WIV to

hide or coverup the type of research being conducted at there.”

“we have uncovered further evidence of how top scientists at the WIV and Dr. Peter

Daszak, an American scientist, furthered that cover-up. Their actions include bullying other scientists

who questioned whether the virus could have leaked from a lab; misleading the world about how a

virus can be modified without leaving a trace; and, in many, instances directly lying about the nature

of the research they were conducting, as well as the low-level safety protocols they were using for

that research.

These actions not only delayed an initial investigation into the possibility of a lab leak costing

valuable time, but provide further proof the virus likely leaked from the WIV”

“Given the WIV’s demonstrated history of conducting gain-of-function

experiments on coronaviruses, including genetically manipulating viruses specifically to make them

infectious to humans in BSL-2 labs, as well as their possession of one of the world’s largest

collections of coronaviruses, it is completely plausible that one or more researcher(s) was

accidentally infected and carried the virus out of the lab”

“The WIV was

conducting gain-of-function research on

coronaviruses and testing them against human

immune systems in the months leading up to the

emergence of SARS-CoV-2, however the scientific

community has claimed it is not possible it was

anything but a naturally occurring virus. But, as this

report lays out, we believe it is a viable hypothesis

that the virus could have been modified.”

“.

In sum, in the years leading up to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, there was:

Unusual Features of SARS-CoV-2

Committee Minority Staff interviews with scientists and current and former U.S. government

officials raised several questions about the natural origins of SARS-CoV-2, including:

1. The highly infectious nature of SARS-CoV-2, which they consider as infectious as measles;

2. The lack of an identified intermediate host (found 4 months after the outbreak of SARS and 9

months after MERS); and

3. The highly efficient binding to human ACE2.

The highly contagious nature of SARS-CoV-2 has been a hot topic of conversation since the virus

began to spread around the world. Some scientists and other experts point to the incredibly high case

numbers as evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is inherently different from known natural betacoronaviruses.

For example, MERS first appeared in 2012 and has infected less than 4,000 people. SARS first

appeared in 2002 and infected less than 10,000. At the time of writing, less than two years from when

it has first appeared, SARS-CoV-2 has infected more than 196.4 million people.

SARS-CoV-2 also has a highly unusual affinity for binding to human ACE2 receptors over other

hosts. In February 2020, American researchers examined this issue closely. They found that SARSCoV-2’s spike protein “binds at least 10 times more tightly than the corresponding spike protein of

severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)–CoV to their common host cell receptor.” In other words,

SARS-CoV-2 binds more than 10 times more tightly to human ACE2 than the virus that causes

SARS. The researchers found this likely explains why the virus is so contagious.

Given the above, it is self-evident that Shi and her colleagues, with fund”

“The paper stated these viruses were “indistinguishable from wild type,” meaning that it is impossible

to tell they were synthetically created.

Baric himself confirmed this interpretation in a September 2020 interview, where he stated, “You can

engineer a virus without leaving any trace. The answers you are looking for, however, can only be

found in the archives of the Wuhan laboratory.” Referring to chimeric viruses he generated in 2015

with WIV researchers, Baric said his team intentionally left signature mutations to show that it was

genetically engineered. “Otherwise there is no way to distinguish a natural virus from one made in

the laboratory.”

Shi and Baric have collaborated on multiple papers regarding coronaviruses. The most recent of

which was in May 2020, when they joined other researchers in publishing “Pathogenesis of SARSCoV-2 in Transgenic Mice Expressing Human Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2.” One year later,

Baric signed onto a May 14, 2021, letter published in Science which argued that the lab leak

theory must be taken seriously and should be fully evaluated”

“The PRC’s efforts to obfuscate the origins of COVID-19 were not limited to destroying samples and

silencing doctors, but featured a sustained disinformation campaign as well. As discussed in our

previous report, Lijian Zhao, an official within the PRC’s Foreign Ministry, shared an article on

Twitter that claimed the virus was brought to the PRC by the U.S. military. The article was from the

Global Times research.ca, a website that pushes pro-Putin propaganda and has reported ties to

Russian state media. His tweet was amplified by the Chinese Embassy in South Africa.”

“It should also be noted that Daszak was the only representative of the United States on the WHOChina Joint Study team in early 2021. The United States put forth a list of experts to be considered,

none of whom were chosen. Daszak was not on that list but was nevertheless selected and approved

by the CCP”

“Peter Daszak has taken several additional concerning actions in regard to the origins of COVID-19,

including inexplicably lying about the work conducted by EcoHealth Alliance in the months

following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. In an August 21, 2020, interview with Nature, after the

NIH suspended the grants he was using to fund research at the WIV, Daszak claimed “The grant isn’t

used to fund work on SARS-CoV-2. Our organization has not actually published any data on SARSCoV-2.” This is despite the fact that four days later Nature Communications published “Origin and

cross-species transmission of bat coronaviruses in China.” Daszak, Shi, Hu, and Wang are all listed

as authors, with Shi and Daszak both being listed as corresponding authors”

Another success note for Ivermectin – https://m.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientist-says-covid-19-could-be-treated-for-under-1day-675612/amp?__twitter_impression=true

“Ivermectin, a drug used to fight parasites in third-world countries, could help reduce the length of infection for people who contract coronavirus for less than a $1 a day, according to recent research by Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer.

Prof. Eli Schwartz, founder of the Center for Travel Medicine and Tropical Disease at Sheba, conducted a randomized, controlled, double-blinded trial from May 15, 2020, through the end of January 2021 to evaluate the effectiveness of ivermectin in reducing viral shedding among nonhospitalized patients with mild to moderate COVID-19.”

“In Schwartz’s study, some 89 eligible volunteers over the age of 18 who were diagnosed with coronavirus and staying in state-run COVID-19 hotels were divided into two groups: 50% received ivermectin, and 50% received a placebo, according to their weight. They were given the pills for three days in a row, an hour before a meal.

The volunteers were tested using a standard nasopharyngeal swab PCR test with the goal of evaluating whether there was a reduction in viral load by the sixth day – the third day after termination of the treatment. They were swabbed every two days.

Nearly 72% of volunteers treated with ivermectin tested negative for the virus by day six. In contrast, only 50% of those who received the placebo tested negative.

IN ADDITION, the study looked at culture viability, meaning how infectious the patients were, and found that only 13% of ivermectin patients were infectious after six days, compared with 50% of the placebo group – almost four times as many.

“Our study shows first and foremost that ivermectin has antiviral activity,” Schwartz said. “It also shows that there is almost a 100% chance that a person will be noninfectious in four to six days, which could lead to shortening isolation time for these people. This could have a huge economic and social impact.””

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.31.21258081v1

“On day 6, 34 out of 47 (72%) patients in the ivermectin arm reached the endpoint, compared to 21/ 42 (50%) in the placebo arm (OR 2·62; 95% CI: 1·09-6·31). In a multivariable logistic-regression model, the odds of a negative test at day 6 was 2.62 time higher in the ivermectin group (95% CI: 1·06–6·45). Cultures at days 2 to 6 were positive in 3/23 (13·0%) of ivermectin samples vs. 14/29 (48·2%) in the placebo group (p=0·008).

Conclusions There were significantly lower viral loads and viable cultures in the ivermectin group, which could lead to shortening isolation time in these patients.”

Another potential treatment for Covid – https://faseb.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1096/fj.202001792R

“We have identified potential therapeutic targets of berberine against both SARS and COVID-19 using computational modeling. The most prominent targets for berberine relevant to host immune response include NF-κB and MAPKs, which are important proteins regulating the cytokine storm, and CASPs and BAX, which are relevant targets in preventing tissue damage via suppressing cell death signaling pathways. Besides balancing host immune responses, our molecular docking analysis identifies berberine as a potential antagonist of host receptor for viral entry, such as ACE2 and TMPSS2, and may inhibit virus proteins. Furthermore, as the first step to validate our computational modeling results, we for the first time demonstrate that berberine significantly reduced viral replication, suppressed viral entry host receptor ACE2 and TMPSS2, and decreased inflammatory markers including IL-6, IL-8, IL-1α, and CCL2 in SARS-CoV-2 infected lung epithelial cells. Given that berberine/NIT-X exhibits high oral bioavailability and has previously been shown to have in vivo immunomodulatory effects and suppression of hyper-mast cells activation, berberine/NIT-X has the potential to become a promising, orally active therapeutic against COVID-19 and SARS. However, direct evidence of berberine antagonist to ACE2, TMPRSS2 protein, and binding activities with these receptors and other targets have not been elucidated in this study and will be further investigated in our future research.”

Perhaps instead of lockdown and mask and vaccine mandates – perhaps lets just ban sugar, carbs, seed oil and see what happens 1 month later….. https://www.israel21c.org/diet-the-biggest-covid-risk-factor-that-nobody-talks-about/

Covid has been very bad for the western world – its like designed to hurt them over the other parts of the world – else they are underreporting which is a possibility. Norway is the outlier. Even Australia and NZ are low and relate more to Asian countries than the west.

Canada Cancer still leads deaths

Japan so much other things to worry about – even flu more of an issue than covid

S. Korea similar to even less of an issue

Australia lockdown perhaps is overblown given how low deaths from Covid

Thailand 2020 covid deaths don’t even show up

S. Africa Aids is still more of an issue

India large deaths still not as high as flu death rates

Germany only Cancer had more deaths

Turkey had a few more categories in front of covid

Saudi Arabia had more issues with flu

Norway flu was more of an issue

Netherlands only Cancer in front

New Zealand covid deaths not even in the top 20

Sweden not faring well….

Indonesia deaths are starting to add up as compared to 2020 – now greater than flu

Indonesia continues to lead the death boards

Cuba is showing an alarming rate of confirmation

FL and TX leads the US

On a per capita basis FL and LA are the hotspots – not clear low vaccinations leading to high confirmations

Confirmation absolute view is much higher than usual – lots of counties showing up in the 250+ Death hot spots still low

Covid19mathblog.com

Update on the youth vaccination math – I did err. The denominator is 8.9 million assuming all issues do get reported into VAERS – the table they use ONLY represents the reported incident for https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7031e1-H.pdf

“As of July 16, 2021, approximately 8.9 million U.S. adolescents aged 12–17 years had received Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.* VAERS received 9,246 reports after Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination in this age group; 90.7% of these were for nonserious adverse events and 9.3% were for serious adverse events, including myocarditis (4.3%).”

So now the numbers are more reasonable….serious incident 849/8900000 = 0.01% ….death (2 suicide) 14/8900000= 0.00%

This has no control just a dataset of vaccinated. The death rate to begin with is essentially 0 for this ages group. So now it becomes the fact are you willing to risk a potential serious rection to the vaccine which is 1 in 10,000. Not clear on the longcovid for this age group but certainly something to considered.

Covid19mathblog.com

TX vs NY comparison for some reason seems to be an important comparison – but its not apples to apples….

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/health/article/Texas-New-York-COVID-deaths-case-numbers-16352409.php

“Texas has passed New York to become the state with the second-most COVID-19 deaths, a feat experts say was driven by an inability to control transmission of the virus here.”

Well one part of the inability to control is the border issue – https://www.hendersonvillestandard.com/news/national/texas-border-city-sues-biden-administration-over-illegal-immigration/article_5baf223d-f576-5d16-9f41-8e690583689b.html

““As Laredo is an underserved medical community with limited resources, it simply cannot accommodate a surge in COVID-19 positives,” the complaint states. The sheer volume of people being brought to a city with a population of 262,000 could expose “the community and fellow citizens to this deadly virus during their travels all over the country,” city officials argue.

“The release of people who are COVID-19 positive and/or have been exposed to someone who is COVID-19 positive poses a danger that this city and country have endeavored to remedy since the inception of this pandemic,” the complaint states.”

With 17% of deaths from border counties with less than 10% of population this issue is beyond just the standard TX vs. NY setup. Fatality rate in Mexico one of the worse in the world at 8.4% vs. Canada at 1.9% – don’t think Canadians rushing into NY to get medical assistance….

To vaccinate the youth or not? This study high level says the issues are rare – BUT the numbers are not as rare as you may think – they stopped J&J for much less likelihood. I wouldn’t take these odds given limited reward (young youth generally do not experience issues with covid infection) . How in the world do they conclude what they conclude with these results? https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e1.htm?s_cid=mm7031e1_w

“What are the implications for public health practice?

Mild local and systemic reactions are common among adolescents following Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, and serious adverse events are rare. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices conducted a risk-benefit assessment and continues to recommend the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for all persons aged ≥12 years.”

THE MATH 14/9246 = 0.15% chance to DIE from taking vac 849/9246=9% chance for a SERIOUS outcome – really you want to recommend it still for the youth who doesn’t really benefit?

The other reason to push the youth to take the vaccine is to reduce transmission with no proof. Back in December it was demonstrated children spread covid 50% less – https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/12/covid-12-11-20/

“This 40,000-person study found that children under 15 were about half as likely as adults to be infected, and only half as likely as adults to transmit the virus to others. Almost all the coronavirus transmissions to children came from adults.”

Licorice time – https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33918301/

“We demonstrated that glycyrrhizin potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 replication in vitro. Furthermore, we uncovered the underlying mechanism and showed that glycyrrhizin blocks the viral replication by inhibiting the viral main protease Mpro that is essential for viral replication. Our data indicate that the consumption of glycyrrhizin-containing products such as licorice root tea of black licorice may be of great benefit for SARS-CoV-2 infected people. Furthermore, glycyrrhizin is a good candidate for further investigation for clinical use to treat COVID-19 patients.”

Interesting article reviewing the demographics of the unvaccinated – certainly not clear cut as social media would indicate it as uneducated trump supporters – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/us/virus-unvaccinated-americans.html

At the same time you can see it in the data – https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/

“As of July 19, less than half of Black and Hispanic people have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in the vast majority of states reporting data. The vaccination rate for Black people is less than 50% in 38 of 42 reporting states, including 14 states where less than a third of Black people have received one or more doses. Similarly, less than half of Hispanic people have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose in 34 of 40 reporting states, including 10 states where less than a third have received at least one dose. At least half of White people have received a COVID-19 vaccine dose in 17 of 42 states.”

Indonesia continues to top the death charts – they are trying to reduce it – https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/indonesia-distributes-medicines-for-free-as-daily-covid-19-infections-soar-to-56757

“Indonesia’s food and drug agency has authorised ivermectin for emergency use against Covid-19, Reuters reported, although the World Health Organisation, as well as European and the US regulators did not recommend its use for Covid-19 patients.”

The positive note the world fatality rate has dropped in all regions since the beginning. But this could be more reporting of confirmations per more access to testing.

FL and TX leads in the US

In terms of concentration on a per capita basis we see Nassau FL leading – even with a 51.5% vaccination rate for 18 and older.

On a absolute we have LA leading followed by Miami Dade

Covid19mathblog.com

There are lots of confusion now with multiple statements going around with unknown leaks from the admin…..https://www.chron.com/news/article/Experts-ask-to-see-data-behind-new-policy-16347545.php

“New recommendations from federal health officials this week on when vaccinated Americans should don face masks came with a startling bolt of news: People who have had their shots and become infected with the delta variant of the coronavirus can harbor large amounts of virus just like unvaccinated people. That means they could become spreaders of the disease and should return to wearing masks indoors in certain situations, including when vulnerable people are present. But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not publish the new research.”

“Some outside scientists have their own message: Show us the data.

"They’re making a claim that people with delta who are vaccinated and unvaccinated have similar levels of viral load, but nobody knows what that means," said Gregg Gonsalves, an associate professor at the Yale School of Public Health. "It’s meaningless unless we see the data."”

“"These data were alarming and recently presented," the official said Wednesday. "We saw the data and thought it was urgent enough to act – in the context of a steeply rising, preventable fourth surge of covid-19."

Because tests showed similar levels of virus in the vaccinated and unvaccinated, the CDC inferred the delta variant can be transmitted by people with breakthrough infections.

"I think the implications [of the data] are that people who are vaccinated, even when they’re asymptomatic, can transmit the virus, which is the scientific foundation of why this recommendation is being made," Anthony Fauci”

“"You can make a reasonable assumption that vaccinated people can transmit the virus just like unvaccinated people can," Fauci said.”

“"The immune response, once activated, takes a while to kick in even among people who have been vaccinated," Hanage said in an email. "As a result if the virus can copy itself really quickly it might be able to get a few rounds of replication in, even in vaccinated folks, before the immune system brings it under control."”

“Research by Chinese scientists posted online and not yet peer-reviewed describes the stunning ability of the delta variant to replicate in the human body. The viral load from the delta is 1,000 times that detected in the earliest variants of the virus. That is about 10 times the viral load sparked by the alpha variant, which was first seen in the United Kingdom and became dominant in the United States this spring before the delta overcompeted it.”

As noted vaccines CAN have the potential to make things worse – and potentially for just a very few – but nonetheless it’s a risk that should be clear and understood by all so they can make their own educated decision. As noted on a biological standpoint vaccines can be problematic in genetic survival mutation – https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198

Another question being highlighted in the confusion above is can the potential vaccination actually makes infections more likely. THIS has occurred in the past – it is called Antibody-dependent Enhancement (ADE). Here are three articles independently discussing ADE and the history of it with vaccines.

https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-vaccines

“ADE occurs when the antibodies generated during an immune response recognize and bind to a pathogen, but they are unable to prevent infection. Instead, these antibodies act as a “Trojan horse,” allowing the pathogen to get into cells and exacerbate the immune response.”

“Most diseases do not cause ADE, but one of the best studied examples of a pathogen that can cause ADE is dengue virus. Dengue virus is one of the most common infections in the world, infecting hundreds of millions and killing tens of thousands of people each year. Unlike viruses like measles or mumps that only have one type, dengue virus has four different forms, called “serotypes.” “if that person is infected with a second serotype of dengue virus, the neutralizing antibodies generated from the first infection may bind to the virus and actually increase the virus’s ability to enter cells, resulting in ADE and causing a severe form of the disease, called dengue hemorrhagic fever.”

“On a few occasions ADE has resulted from vaccination:

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) — RSV is a virus that commonly causes pneumonia in children. A vaccine was made by growing RSV, purifying it, and inactivating it with the chemical formaldehyde. In clinical trials, children who were given the vaccine were more likely to develop or die from pneumonia after infection with RSV. As a result of this finding, the vaccine trials stopped, and the vaccine was never submitted for approval or released to the public.

Measles — An early version of measles vaccine was made by inactivating measles virus using formaldehyde. Children who were vaccinated and later became infected with measles in the community developed high fevers, unusual rash, and an atypical form of pneumonia. Upon seeing these results, the vaccine was withdrawn from use, and those who received this version of the vaccine were recommended to be vaccinated again using the live, weakened measles vaccine, which does not cause ADE and is still in use today.

Both the RSV and measles vaccines that caused ADE were tested in the 1960s. Since then, other vaccines have successfully been created by purifying and chemically inactivating the virus with formaldehyde, such as hepatitis A, rabies, and inactivated polio vaccines. These more recent vaccines do not cause ADE.”

“In 2016, a dengue virus vaccine was designed to protect against all four serotypes of the virus. The hope was that by inducing immune responses to all four serotypes at once, the vaccine could circumvent the issues related to ADE following disease with dengue virus. The vaccine was given to 800,000 children in the Philippines. Fourteen vaccinated children died after encountering dengue virus in the community. It is hypothesized that the children developed antibody responses that were not capable of neutralizing the natural virus circulating in the community. As such, the vaccine was recommended only for children greater than 9 years of age who had already been exposed to the virus.”

“Today’s routinely recommended vaccines do not cause ADE. If they did, like those described above, they would be removed from use. Phase III clinical trials are designed to uncover frequent or severe side effects before a vaccine is approved for use”

“Neither COVID-19 disease nor the new COVID-19 vaccines have shown evidence of causing ADE. People infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have not been likely to develop ADE upon repeat exposure. This is true of other coronaviruses as well. Likewise, studies of vaccines in the laboratory with animals or in the clinical trials in people have not found evidence of ADE.” (however likely not tested with the recent variants- also conflicts with the next article which demonstrates in multiple cases in SARS-CoV)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220307311

“In this review, antibody-dependent enhancements in dengue virus and two kinds of coronavirus are summarized. Possible solutions for the effects are reported. We also speculate that ADE may exist in SARS-CoV-2.”

“Studies so far have presumed that there are five mechanisms that underlie ADE and that various viruses work under different mechanisms and are not necessarily facilitated by a single mechanism.”

“Several different kinds of coronavirus have been shown to cause disease in mammals and birds. Among these, seven are known to infect humans (Table 1), including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has overwhelmed the whole world this year. Four of the remaining six just elicit common cold symptoms; these are human coronavirus 229E, NL63, OC43, HKU1 (Fung and Liu, 2019). All of these are known to be endemic. The final two are well known and highly pathogenic betacoronaviruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).”

“Early in the last century, researchers discovered coronaviruses in animals, like feline enteric coronavirus. This is exploited by ADE because of ineffective antibodies (Takano et al., 2019), leading to an exacerbation of disease symptoms. Antibodies to feline infectious peritonitis virus also enhance infection of monocytes. It has been sequentially confirmed in subsequent studies that ADE of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV also occur, with different mechanisms. Whether ADE works in other kinds of coronavirus infections remains to be investigated.”

“SARS-CoV enters host cells by recognizing and binding to its viral receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in the classical pathway, while antibodies neutralize the viruses by blocking the interaction of viral spike proteins and ACE2. This block was confirmed in a type of human antibody extracted from the antibody library of non-immune people early in 2004 (Sui et al., 2004). Then in 2007, Yiu Wing Kam et al. explored whether antibody against SARS-CoV viral spike protein can induce viral entry into FcR-bearing cells and evoke ADE (Kam et al., 2007). The results showed that these antibodies increase the affinity of SARS-CoV towards FcγRII-bearing cells. This increase is mediated by the Fc portion of anti-spike antibody and FcγRII on cells, while ACE2 is not required in the process. Later research by Jaume et al. in 2014 showed that antibody against SARS-CoV viral spike protein strengthened the infection towards monocytes and lymphocytes, both of which do not express viral receptors (Yip et al., 2014). This was in agreement with the results of Yiu Wing Kam’s team. In the same year, studies conducted by Chen and Huang’s team indicated that ADE is mainly induced by diluted antibodies against spike proteins rather than nucleocapsid protein(Wang et al., 2014). These studies further demonstrated that anti-spike antibodies induce ADE during SARS-CoV infection, and this effect mainly works in immune cells. In 2018, the rhesus monkey was used as an animal model to study the relationship between ADE and the antibody titer induced by vaccine. The results demonstrated that those vaccines that elicit low titers of antibody may not induce ADE after infection with SARS-CoV (Luo et al., 2018), while highly diluted serum may in turn promote the infectivity of the virus.”

“ADE may exist in SARS-CoV-2

The 2019 novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerged this year and has caused high numbers of deaths. The most recent sequencing results have shown that SARS-CoV-2 shares a similar genome sequence of up to 79.5% with SARS-CoV, and the viral receptor for both is ACE2. A team from the University of Texas found that SARS-CoV-2 has affinity for the ACE2 receptor 10–20 times that of SARS-CoV (Wrapp et al., 2020), which explains why it has a higher basic reproduction number. These results also indicate a pathogenic similarity between the two viruses.

Studies on SARS-CoV have highlighted the complexity of the role of antibodies in the pathogenesis of highly pathogenic coronaviruses (Fleming and Raabe, 2020). Not long after the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared, the heterogeneity of severe cases in Hubei Province, China and in other areas was noted and this was attributed to ADE.”

“From previous research on ADE in other coronaviruses, in particular SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, it appears that the existence of ADE will elicit more severe body injury, while actually reducing the viral load at the same time. This may affect the results of vaccine therapy. The presence of this phenomenon in these two coronaviruses indicates a potential risk in the vaccine therapy for the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, as it shares the same viral receptor and similar genome sequence with SARS-CoV. SARS-CoV-2 may have a similar mechanism of viral entry and thus may share similar mechanisms of ADE. This novel coronavirus has not long been known, so studies in this field have not yet led to any conclusions.

Previous studies have shown that different teams have sometimes given different explanations for ADE in the same virus. A possible important factor may be the late emergence of human coronaviruses that cause severe symptoms. Understanding of ADE in SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infections has taken several years and was relatively clear till these two years. From this, we speculate that studies on ADE in this newly emerged coronavirus will take some time, but the elucidation of this effect is of great importance.”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7943455/

“Summary

Given past data on multiple SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV vaccine efforts have failed due to ADE in animal models (75, 81), it is reasonable to hypothesize a similar ADE risk for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and vaccines. ADE risks may be associated with antibody level (which can wane over time after vaccination) and also if the antibodies are derived from prior exposures to other coronaviruses. In addition, ADE with mast cells likely plays a role in MIS-C for infants and possibly older MIS-C and MIS-A patients. While expanded trophism of SARS-CoV-2 represents a possible ADE risk in the subset of COVID-19 patients with disease progression beyond the mild disease stage.”

I came across this from CDC and WHO pushing vaccines for those with natural immunity without any solid proof just statements – but why ignore major studies https://twitter.com/i/events/1420274680531800065?s=09

Studies showing natural immunity is better:

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762?fbclid=IwAR10LYZviX9Lpf5MgzP-y6Hit2ZTXM8wrGy4IPc-ikzHfEfSQhgey4V85Ig

Cleveland Clinic – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v2

https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20210719/Thai-study-looks-at-CoronaVac-vaccine-vs-natural-immunity-to-SARS-COV-2-variants.aspx?__twitter_impression=true

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.20.21254636v1

Positive news for youth vaccination – but not much timeline either – https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-major-side-effects-among-vaccinated-children-initial-data-suggests/

“Initial data from 200,000 inoculated Israeli children published on Thursday indicated that the COVID-19 vaccine has no major side effects, and almost no side effects in general.

Health official were most worried about myocarditis — an inflammation of the heart muscle — but only three such cases were observed among the 200,000 recipients of the vaccine between the ages of 12 and 15, data published by the Kan public broadcaster showed.

However, the report stressed that more data is needed with a larger sample to draw definitive conclusions.”

Indonesia continues to lead deaths followed by Brazil.

Certainly in another wave

FL leading death and confirmation

Fixed the Louisiana counties so they show up in table. They do fit the story of low vac high confirmation – but then we also have McKinely, NM at 99.9% vac but showing high confirmation rate per capita. Unlike Chattahoochee which you can say is a military base I couldn’t find a simple explanation.

Volumetric LA still leads in confirmation along with Miami Dade

Covid19mathblog.com

Mask are back – https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danvergano/cdc-mask-guidance-vaccinated

Mask are impactful – Georgia school mask study – https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7021e1-H.pdf

We see ventilation practice is just as important as mask wearing. More important that teachers and staff wear mask than students. Don’t waste time on desk spacing and barriers.

Another study supporting the fact natural immunity superior over vaccination – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.20.21254636v1

“The estimated vaccine effectiveness in preventing infection ≥7 days after second dose was 86% (95% CI 72-94%) but only 42% (95% CI 14-63%) ≥14 days after a single dose. No difference in vaccine effectiveness was observed between females and males. Having a prior positive test was associated with 91% (95% CI 85 to 94%) effectiveness against new infection among the unvaccinated.”

IF we are so focus on prevention and hospitalization why don’t we start targeting some of the reasons resulting in it – vs just a vaccination message? https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2021/pdf/21_0123.pdf

Interesting that anxiety and fear showing up – probably we need to temper the message if this is the case – particularly for the youth for multiple reasons beyond covid.

Not sure if you have caught my reference that vaccines could be driving worse variants given the survival desire of the virus – here is a study supporting that hypothesis – we best be very careful what we wish for – https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198

“Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent

transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that

cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.”

“the use of leaky vaccines can

facilitate the evolution of pathogen strains that put unvaccinated hosts at greater risk of

severe disease. The future challenge is to identify whether there are other types of vaccines

used in animals and humans that might also generate these evolutionary risks.”

A piece supporting the theory vaccination reduces transmission – data yet to show conclusively this but good points are made with focus on viral load – Ventilation and being healthy also reduces viral load where is that promotion -also focus on treatment plans that reduce viral load as an objective – https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-crucial-vaccine-benefit-were-not-talking-about-enough1/

“One possible indirect benefit of a COVID vaccine, then, may be to reduce the viral load in so-called breakthrough cases, or vaccinated people who get infected.”

“Researchers in Israel studied vaccinated people who became infected. The viral load in these breakthrough cases was about three to four times lower than the viral load among infected people who were unvaccinated. Researchers in the U.K. reported a similar result. They also found that vaccinated people who became infected tested positive for about one week less than unvaccinated people.”

More analysis of our county data – each color represents a state – but each circle is a county

Our outlier is a county in Georgia hosting Ft. Benning! Perhaps inferior vaccines given or the conditions just merit spreading. Good thing not many deaths for that county. Still no conclusive statement to say more vaccination reduces transmission in real life. There are more dispersion in the middle but that could just be because of more samples. Deaths are little more obvious to show a decline as more vaccination.

Demographic view – spread/death vs median age and income. Age which is the closest metric to health clearly slopes to high deaths as you get older. Transmission wise you kind of see that too but less. It would seem the big spreading ager is in the 35-50 category. Income shows a pattern that low income likely spread more than high income. In addition the deaths would seem to lean that direction – but probably similar to many other diseases too.

Other than San Diego the top areas of confirmation per capita have very high vaccination rates. (TX, CA, and LA – missing from vaccination county data)

Indonesia leading death chart.

US front FL leads in death and confirmation.

County hot spots – confirmation for sure picking up.