Covid19mathblog.com
Lots of news from Germany….to start is a very interesting interview from the scientist who has been researching coronavirus before it was cool – Herr Drosten, woher kam dieses Virus? – Republik (m2bbpkwtclxqxwenu42f3n6ee4-ac5fdsxevxq4s5y-www-republik-ch.translate.goog)
He certainly has an appreciation for human behavior as he notes the issues with MERS per camel
“The best thing is to vaccinate the virus from its source. You can vaccinate the camels. There are farm animals, they are available, they are standing around. But camels sometimes have extreme sales prices and their owners often do not want to have them vaccinated: For many owners, if you stick a vaccination needle into it, it is like the S-Class getting a scratch. Sometimes that triggers very similar feelings.”
Also his breakdown of issues is quite elegant as he rationalize why MERS didn’t breakout as bad as current Covid-19:
“The decisive factor is that viruses are always adapted to their host, Mers to the camel. If the virus wants to learn how to transmit itself better from person to person, then this adaptation, i.e. the corresponding mutations, must take place in people. The virus does not learn that in the camel. For that, those initial two, three, or four generations of human-to-human transmissions are absolutely essential. Even so, a pandemic does not come about that easily.” “A virus that is just at the beginning of a pandemic is not yet so highly contagious: an infected person is usually more likely to infect one person than five or ten. So there is only a limited amount of virus in circulation, and so only a limited number of mutations can arise. These mutations are always random. And coincidence, as evolution shows, rarely leads to a fairly optimized organism becoming even better. The virus is usually on the verge of extinction in humans – unless it produces the right mutations quickly enough and by chance.”
He also puts a straight line between animal industry and virus. Can you imagine pulling off fear of a live animal – we really do this? That’s got to be one of the worse jobs on the planet
“I myself examined Sars-like coronaviruses in bats in field work. These Sars viruses in bat populations are also found in Europe. It can be shown in the laboratory that they are not so easily transferred from bats to humans. So you ask yourself: which animal is in between? Often these are farm animals that are crammed together in large herds in which the virus can boil up. Humans interact with these animals differently than with distant wild animals such as bats. Take fur animals. Raccoon dogs and crawling cats have their fur pulled lively over their ears. They let out death screams and roar, and aerosols are created in the process.Humans can then become infected with the virus. These animals were clearly the source at Sars-1. That is scientifically proven. For me it was a closed story. I thought that this kind of pet trade had been stopped and that it would never come back. And now Sars has come back.”
He is skeptical on the lab leak but I think his logic is based on “ease” vs. perhaps truly a ground up engineering feat by the lab as he notes the current form is quite complex vs. IF he were going to develop it.
“You can’t just put a virus in a glass dish and do some kind of experiment with it. Building a DNA clone like this from a virus takes two to three years of molecular biological work. By the way, researchers actually made such clones from the original Sars-1 virus. So if you had wanted to develop a kind of Sars-2 in the laboratory, you would have added changes, for example this furin site, to such a Sars-1 clone. To find out, does this adaptation make the Sars virus more contagious? But that was not the case here. The whole backbone of the virus is different: Sars-2 is full of deviations from the original Sars-1 virus.” “Let me explain it with a picture: In order to check whether adjustments make the virus more contagious, I would take an existing system, incorporate the change and then compare it with the old system. If I want to know whether a new car radio improves the sound, I take an existing car and replace the radio there. Then I compare. I’m not building a completely new car for it. But that’s exactly how it was with Sars-2: The whole car is different.” “This idea of a research accident is extremely unlikely for me because it would be far too cumbersome. The idea of malicious use by some secret service laboratory somewhere: if anything, something like that would probably not come from the Wuhan Virology Institute. This is a reputable academic institute.”
His hypothesis on the origin – animal industry – and he really makes a good point at the end
“Carnivore breeding. The fur industry.
Why?
I have no evidence for this, except for the clearly proven origin of Sars-1, and this is a virus of the same species. Viruses of the same species do the same things and often come from the same source. In Sars-1, this is scientifically documented, the transitional landlords were raccoon dogs and crawling cats. That is assured. It is also certain that raccoon dogs are used extensively in the fur industry in China. If you buy a jacket with a fur collar anywhere, it is the Chinese raccoon dog, almost without exception. And now I can tell you that there are no studies in the scientific literature – none at all – that shed light on the question of whether raccoon dog breeding stocks or other carnivore breeding stocks, for example minks, carry this virus, Sars-2, in China .”
“Fur animals are predators. They eat small mammals. They also chase bats in the wild. And bats only have one short window a year where they all have their young at the same time. A lot of newborns fall from the ceiling and they lie on the floor. And these wildcats know that. They go into bat caves and eat their fill. This is a holiday season for some, there is a lot to eat. And they can catch such viruses in the process. Some of these fur farms are wild animals, so wild-caught animals are added over and over again. That’s why it’s easy to imagine that such viruses will be introduced into these breeds. And you can watch TV programsHow it works then, this fur harvest: This is an industry with close contact with people, where they can become infected.”
“For the two Sars pandemics one can say: Fifty or sixty years ago, when an intercontinental flight was the exception and only diplomats flew to China, for example, and trade with Asia was carried out via shipping containers – at that time such a virus would not have spread so easily. Travel makes it easier for a local epidemic to turn into a pandemic. At the source, at the transition from animals to humans, we humans use more and more land in the wild animal area and intensify livestock husbandry. The hunger for meat of growing humanity. The denser and larger the animal population, the greater the chances that a virus, once it is introduced into the population, will explode and mutate like Sars-2. The richer people get, the more they use animals. Mers is a good example of this.
In what way?
The camel as a religious sacrificial animal has a long tradition and is very valued. But it also costs a lot of money. Poor religious people take sheep instead. But the more people got rich in that region, the more camels were sacrificed. Today, for example, during the Hajj season on the Arabian Peninsula alone, 40,000 camels are slaughtered as sacrificial animals every year. Fifty years ago that didn’t even begin to exist. Ultimately, wherever in the world, it is about the modification of natural systems: A large population of livestock in any place is always something artificial. Animal use does not exist in nature. No species uses any other species in this way.”
He the blows away the concept of herd immunity – once again incorporating human behavior:
“This was a misunderstanding from the start, if you took it to mean that herd immunity means: 70 percent will become immune – regardless of whether through vaccination or infection – and the remaining 30 percent will no longer have any contact with the virus from then on. It’s just not the case with this virus. Anyone who does not get vaccinated will contract Sars-2. The term herd immunity comes from veterinary medicine, where such considerations were actually made in earlier years, for example with the rinderpest virus, the measles virus of cattle. Highly transmissible, but with a vaccination to keep it away for life. Then you can really do such calculations: We have a livestock population that is self-contained – how many of the animals do we have to vaccinate now,so that the virus cannot circulate? That’s where this term comes from.
Humans don’t live in flocks.
Humans are not a closed group. We have travel and exchange and continuity, so even without traveling there is the neighboring village, and that has a neighboring village again, and so it goes on, around the world. And this is how viruses will spread, according to their basic ability to spread. In a few years, one hundred percent of the population will either have been vaccinated or infected. Even after that, Sars-2 will still infect people, but these will no longer be initial infections. The initial infection is the stupid thing, after that the illness that causes it is less bad. It will probably be some kind of, yes, I want to say: get a cold.”
His risk/reward assessment for vaccinating kids
“The big question is about self-interest for the children: You can of course vaccinate so that the school runs smoothly. But what about the burden of disease in children? Nobody can say exactly at the moment. How many children continue to have symptoms after an infection, even if it is mild? A study has just come out that shows: about four and a half percent of infected children still have symptoms such as loss of smell, loss of taste and permanent fatigue after a month. Do you want that for your child? Four percent is not a small amount. The other is the so-called multi-system inflammation syndrome,that affects one in a few thousand: a serious illness that can last up to six months. From a parent’s perspective, my child would be vaccinated. Clear case. I don’t want this risk.”
Other German news a study shows lockdown had minimal impact – this I am more certain off as the root of the issue of ventilation was not solved as lockdowns still doesn’t stop people from gathering with relatives – German study finds lockdown had little effect on virus infections (msn.com)
“A new study by German scientists claims to have found evidence that lockdowns may have had little effect on controlling the coronavirus pandemic.
Statisticians at Munich University found “no direct connection” between the German lockdown and falling infection rates in the country.
Instead, the study found infection rates had already clearly begun to fall before a national lockdown was imposed last November.”
A study in Israel shows being infected gives you just as much if not slightly more defense than vaccination – Natural COVID infection provides similar protection to vaccines, Israeli study shows | KOMO (komonews.com)
“According to Israeli researchers, a vaccinated, uninfected person is 92.8% protected from infection, relative to an unvaccinated, uninfected person, while an unvaccinated person who tested positive for COVID is 94.8% protected from re-infection, relative to an unvaccinated person who did not test positive. Similarly, the vaccinated and COVID positive groups are protected against severe disease at 94.4% and 96.4%, respectively. Against hospitalization, the vaccinated and COVID positive groups are protected at 94.2% and 94.1%, respectively.”
Interesting article on vaccine and testing – More than 2,000 Uttarakhand cops test positive, 90% of them got both doses | India News,The Indian Express
“More than 2,000 Uttarakhand Police personnel tested positive for Covid-19 in the second wave and 93 per cent of them had received both doses of the vaccine before contracting the infection, according to data shared by authorities.
The data, which was shared on Tuesday, says 2,382 policemen tested positive while they were on duty between April and May. Among them, 2,204 have already recovered while five deaths were reported.
According to the data, two of the five policemen who died had comorbidities. The other three were not vaccinated. When asked about the large number of infections, DIG (law and order) and Uttarakhand police chief spokesperson Nilesh Anand Bharne said that severity and casualties remain low. Bharne said that even vaccine manufacturers have admitted that vaccine does not guarantee that one will not test positive after receiving doses.”
Strange last sentence – so are we getting infected to test positive or that the vaccines are inducing a positive test?
Not good news for Pfizer Vaccine – but no statement for others perhaps they all have the same issue? Pfizer vaccine recipients have lower antibodies targeting Indian variant, claims Lancet study (inews.co.uk)
“Two doses of the Pfizer vaccine leave people with more than five times lower neutralising antibodies – a key part of the immune system – against the Indian variant (Delta) when compared to the original coronavirus strain upon which current vaccines are based, the largest study of its kind suggests.”
“They also pointed out that levels of antibodies alone do not predict vaccine effectiveness and prospective population studies are also needed. Lower neutralising antibody levels may still be associated with protection against Covid-19, the experts said.”
Call this obvious? Taking immunosuppressants will lower the effectiveness of vaccine? Covid-19 vaccine: Millions of Americans might not have had an adequate response to shot – CNN
In vaccine conspiracy news – nothing like a mysterious death to boost the story – Chinese scientist filed COVID vaccine patent after contagion emerged: report (nypost.com)
“A Chinese Communist Party military scientist who got funding from the National Institutes of Health filed a patent for a COVID-19 vaccine in February last year — raising fears the shot was being studied even before the pandemic became public, according to a new report.
Zhou Yusen, a decorated military scientist for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) who worked alongside the Wuhan Institute of Virology as well as US scientists, filed a patent on Feb. 24 2020, according to documents obtained by The Australian.
The patent — lodged by the “Institute of Military Medicine, Academy of Military Sciences of the PLA” — was filed just five weeks after China admitted there was human-to-human transmission of the virus, and months before Zhou died under mysterious circumstances, the report noted.”
India still leads but at least the numbers are much lower
All heading down for India
FL leads confirmation but with no deaths. MI leads deaths
County view we have the typical counties
