Covid19mathblog.com

As noted yesterday the halting of J&J seems very blunt vs. halting for females since all 6 incident females – but nonetheless for 6/7million – strange – all in the benefit of the mRNA vaccine. However lets consider the mRNA – could it be the mRNA causes much more unintended consequence vs. the proven adenovirus mechanism (J&J and Astrazeneca)? Interesting this is written submission to FDA for a concern about the mRNA vaccine by Dr. J Patrick Whelan – Volunteer Assistant Clinical Professor of Microbiology and Immunology Member, Academic Advisory Board, Institute for Advanced Catholic Studies at USC President, Los Angeles Pediatrics Society by the way seems to be democrat given Author of The Catholic Case for Obama Former adviser to Gov. Howard Dean and Democratic National Committee https://www.regulations.gov/document/FDA-2020-N-1898-0246

“I am a pediatric specialist caring for children with the multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C). I am concerned about the possibility that the new vaccines aimed at creating immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (including the mRNA vaccines of Moderna and Pfizer) have the potential to cause microvascular injury to the brain, heart, liver, and kidneys in a way that does not currently appear to be assessed in safety trials of these potential drugs.”

“Magro et al. showed that there is complement-mediated damage even in grossly normal skin of coronavirus-infected individuals (Human Pathology 2020:106:106-116). They have also shown (Magro et al. Annals of Diagnostic Pathology 2021:50 in press ) that ACE-2 receptor expression is highest in the microvasculature of the brain and subcutaneous fat, and to a lesser degree in the liver, kidney, and heart. They have further demonstrated that the coronavirus replicates almost exclusively in the septal capillary endothelial cells of the lungs and the nasopharynx, and that viral lysis and immune destruction of those cells releases viral capsid proteins (or pseudovirions) that travel through the circulation and bind to ACE2 receptors in these other parts of the body leading to mannan-binding lectin complement pathway activation that not only damages the microvascular endothelium but also induces the production of many pro-inflammatory cytokines. Meinhardt et al. (Nature Neuroscience 2020, in press) show that the spike protein in brain endothelial cells is associated with formation of microthrombi (clots), and like Magro et al. do not find viral RNA in brain endothelium. In other words, viral proteins appear to cause tissue damage without actively replicating virus.”

“Is it possible the spike protein itself causes the tissue damage associated with Covid-19? Nuovo et al (in press) have shown that in 13/13 brains from patients with fatal COVID-19, pseudovirions (spike, envelope, and membrane proteins) without viral RNA are present in the endothelia of cerebral microvessels. Furthermore, tail vein injection of the full length S1 spike subunit in mice led to neurologic signs (increased thirst, stressed behavior) not evident in those injected with the S2 subunit. The S1 subunit localizes to the endothelia of microvessels in the mouse brain, and is a potent neurotoxin. So the spike S1 subunit of SARS-CoV-2 alone is capable of being endocytosed by ACE2 positive endothelia in both human and mouse brain, with a concomitant pauci-cellular microencephalitis that may be the basis for the neurologic complications of COVID-19. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (BNT162b2) is composed of an mRNA that produces a membrane-anchored full-length spike protein. The mouse studies suggest that an untruncated form of the S1 protein like this may cause a microvasculopathy in tissues that express much ACE2 receptor. A truncated form of S1 was much less damaging in mice.”

Supporting study to the statements above – also supports thesis that males more likely to get infected vs females – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-020-00771-8

“We show that intravenously injected radioiodinated S1 (I-S1) readily crossed the blood–brain barrier in male mice, was taken up by brain regions and entered the parenchymal brain space. I-S1 was also taken up by the lung, spleen, kidney and liver. Intranasally administered I-S1 also entered the brain, although at levels roughly ten times lower than after intravenous administration”

“These results suggest that enhanced uptake of I-S1 by some tissues could contribute to the increased risk of COVID-19 in males versus females, but not to the risk associated with the APOE4 genotype.”

“many if not most viral proteins themselves can be biologically highly active; for example, gp120 is highly toxic11,12,13,14,15,16,17. Coronavirus spike proteins are often cleaved from the virus by host cell proteases. Once cleaved, coronavirus spike S1 and S2 subunits are not held covalently by disulfide bonds and so S1 could be shed from virions34. It is possible that during infection by SARS-CoV-2, shed S1 is available to cross the BBB, triggering responses in the brain itself, without necessarily involving crossing of intact virus particles. Thus, determining whether S1 crosses the BBB is important for understanding whether SARS-CoV-2 and S1 itself could induce responses in the brain.”

To each his/her own in calculating risk/reward. It is clear the mRNA vaccine is not fully vetted or understood in terms of longterm impact and the mechanism potential unintended consequences. There could be positive unintended consequences too – perhaps protects against common colds too? Still it is murky so IF YOUNG AND HEALTHY – the risk/reward profile shifts drastically when considering mRNA vaccination. It would also make more logical sense to take the more perceived efficacy vaccine IF you are older (less years to worry about longterm impact) and have multiple comorbidities. Personally I was scheduled to take the J&J and feel comfortable taking it if allowed again. mRNA has too many unknowns in my opinion given the alternatives and a healthy lifestyle I try to live. Perhaps the mRNA will become the best medical invention of all time – but no one really knows all the impacts of having a spike protein inserted in your body. I still believe the best medical advice I have read is to live a healthy lifestyle – stick with whole foods reduce sugars/process foods and alcohol.

Amazing India confirmations – can you really test than many people in 1 day! The deaths numbers for India is amazing. I guess if you can survive the first few years in India you are likely someone with a strong immunity – given all the stuff in the environment (mosquitos, pollution, etc..)

India deaths are starting to rise now

MI leads confirmation. MS leads death

Michigan still is the prime concern for the US

Daily vaccinations are still climbing

Covid19mathblog.com

Big news is the suspension of J&J vaccine – strange feels like a moderna/Pfizer mRNA push- seriously the data is 6 FEMALES – at the very least pause for the females as they are less likely to get covid in the first place – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/us/politics/johnson-johnson-vaccine-blood-clots-fda-cdc.html

“Federal health agencies on Tuesday called for an immediate pause in use of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose coronavirus vaccine after six recipients in the United States developed a rare disorder involving blood clots within about two weeks of vaccination.

All six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second woman in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition.

Nearly seven million people in the United States have received Johnson & Johnson shots so far, and roughly nine million more doses have been shipped out to the states, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”

The longterm impact of the adenovirus method is much more well understood than the mRNA. Sure it was used to try treat cancer before but certainly not for this and how the body actually deciphers it is not clear. Personally I feel more comfortable with adenovirus – also one and done is convenient.

India covid issue is big – they are a big exporter of medicine/vaccine – https://theprint.in/opinion/modi-govts-mistakes-are-to-blame-for-indias-latest-covid-crisis/638943/

“The state has left India vulnerable to a second Covid-19 wave, multiple new mutations and the threat of repeated, livelihood-destroying lockdowns.

Worse, Indians aren’t the only ones who will pay the price. Developing nations that had been counting on the “pharmacy of the world” will now have to wait longer for their jabs, even as the new variants continue to spread.”

“Indian bureaucrats and regulators, under whatever administration, are prone to a barely disguised xenophobia. Thus, regulators pushed out an indigenously developed vaccine, Bharat Biotech Ltd.’s Covaxin, even before Phase III trial data was available. Meanwhile, other vaccines that had received regulatory approval elsewhere — including those from Pfizer Inc. and Johnson & Johnson — were unnecessarily held up until trials could be conducted in India.”

“Vaccine manufacturer Serum Institute of India was forbidden to produce for India’s private market, although CEO Adar Poonawalla had repeatedly said he would continue to offer the government doses of the vaccine from AstraZeneca Plc. for only Rs. 150 ($2) each. That price “is not profitable enough to re-invest substantially in building capacity,” said Poonawalla, who hoped to sell other doses on the open market for Rs. 1,000 ($13) each. Now the company has lost its export orders as well, further constraining cashflow.”

Once again data will start coming in about not eating inflammatory diet – interesting hear is conflicting with dairy but it’s the microbiome not the dairy that’s helping – https://www.jpost.com/health-science/could-a-cup-of-yogurt-cure-your-case-of-covid-19-664976

“Pre-clinical research by Israeli scientists, published in Microbiome, indicates that Kefir could be used to treat cytokine storms caused by coronavirus.”

“Several years before the coronavirus pandemic, Malka noticed that yogurt had a therapeutic effect and began studying it in Jelinek’s lab, Jelinek told The Jerusalem Post. They identified molecules in the yogurt that had dramatic antibacterial and anti-inflammatory properties. “One of the main reasons people die of COVID is the cytokine storm,” Jelinek said. “Cytokines are immune molecules that are designed to help the body fight invaders like viruses. But in certain circumstances, and scientists don’t know exactly why, the body goes into a sort of overdrive and secretes many cytokines – so many that it kills you. That is what happens during COVID.””

Its still Brazil and India are the issue.

Still exponential confirmation for India

In the US its Michigan and NY

Changed death limit to 10

Even though Wayne County leads at least not by much as compared during LA or Cook county burst

Covid19mathblog.com

Mutant strain resistant to Pfizer vaccine – https://sea.mashable.com/science/15262/scientists-say-this-mutant-covid-19-strain-is-resistant-to-pfizer-vaccine

“A new study conducted in Israel has shown that a variant of the coronavirus that was first identified in South Africa may have the capability to bypass the protection offered by the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

The study – which is yet to be peer-reviewed – was conducted by scientists at the Tel Aviv University and Clalit, Israel’s largest healthcare organization.”

“The findings ended up showing that the strain found in South Africa – known as B.1.135 – was eight times more rampant in individuals that had already taken both doses of the vaccine produced by Pfizer and BioNTech.”

“Thailand has recently discovered locally-transmitted cases of the B.1.1.7 strain in at least 24 individuals, which translates into a problem, considering that the nation was only recently looking to loosen protocols for inbound travel in a bid to boost its beleaguered tourism sector.”

“In February, Pfizer and BioNTech reported that they were experimenting with a possible third dose of their vaccine in an effort to better understand how the human immune system responds to new variants of the coronavirus.”

“"The rate of mutations in the current virus is higher than expected," said Mikael Dolsten, Pfizer’s Chief Scientific Officer. "It’s a reasonable probability that we would end up with regular boosts."

"And for potent vaccines, it may be that you need to do a strain change every few years."”

Sounds like perpetual $$$$

Yikes the truth? Also note their thoughts on when second dose should be taken!- https://time.com/5954051/chinese-covid19-vaccines-effectiveness/

“In a rare admission of the weakness of Chinese coronavirus vaccines, the country’s top disease control official says their effectiveness is low and the government is considering mixing them to get a boost.

Chinese vaccines “don’t have very high protection rates,” said the director of the China Centers for Disease Control, Gao Fu, at a conference Saturday in the southwestern city of Chengdu.”
“Experts say mixing vaccines, or sequential immunization, might boost effectiveness. Researchers in Britain are studying a possible combination of Pfizer-BioNTech and the traditional AstraZeneca vaccine.”

“The effectiveness of a Sinovac vaccine at preventing symptomatic infections was found to be as low as 50.4% by researchers in Brazil, near the 50% threshold at which health experts say a vaccine is useful. By comparison, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has been found to be 97% effective.”

“Chinese state media and popular health and science blogs also have questioned the safety and effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

As of April 2, some 34 million people in China have received both of the two doses required for Chinese vaccines and about 65 million received one, according to Gao.

The Sinovac spokesman, Liu, said studies find protection “may be better” if time between vaccinations is longer than the current 14 days but gave no indication that might be made standard practice.”

Hmmm what is this a vaccine hybrid? https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/12/regeneron-antibody-cocktail-covid-simple-injection/

“Regeneron Pharmaceuticals said Monday that a single administration of its monoclonal antibody cocktail reduced the risk that volunteers exposed to Covid-19 would develop the disease by 81%.”

“Those results mirror similar results seen in a study conducted by Eli Lilly of its monoclonal antibody in nursing homes. One key difference: While in previous studies by both Lilly and Regeneron, antibodies had to be given intravenously, in this one Regeneron used a formulation that could be given with an under-the-skin injection. Lilly is also exploring a subcutaneous injection of its antibodies.”

““As of now, there are still substantial numbers of people who are not fully vaccinated,” Barouch said. What’s more, some people, including those with compromised immune systems, might not generate enough antibodies one their own —– and could benefit from antibodies that are injected into their bodies.

In some circumstances, say, an outbreak at a nursing home, the monoclonal antibodies, which start working immediately, could be the better approach.”

Can we get a mutation that makes you have super powers? Why all the bad news all the time? https://www.cityam.com/new-super-covid-variant-combines-18-mutations/

“A new super variant of the Covid-19 virus in Brazil is a combination of 18 different mutations, including the so-called Brazil, British and South African strains.

According to local media reports, scientist in the South American country confirmed that the new strain, which was first discovered in the city of Belo Horizonte, contains multiple mutations that were already known.”

“While he stressed it is too early to say the new strain is more infectious or deadly, Santana did say the new strain has the characterises of those variants that are already associated with a higher risk of death.”

Brazil really needs to be in lockdown from the rest of the world – potentially India. Exports will be impacted.

Brazil deaths are up there. India confirmation going to the moon.

NY leads both confirmation and deaths

Still the same counties lead. Positive news will be lowering threshold to reporting.

Covid19mathblog.com

Lets look back at the data and see if we can understand anything. Would opening up society with cautious warning to the public (e.g. Sweden, S. Korea) fare better than draconian/authoritarian quarantine (UK, Germany)? Unfortunately its not that clear cut given every country had differences of degree rules and the overall health of society certainly matters the most to the outcome.

A popular comparison is Sweden vs. Germany – but to be fair Sweden is less population density, younger, and lower BMI so they SHOULD fare better. The one thing that would make a better clear cut example of whether it was worth it would be to have a psychology question of happiness – perhaps suicide metric- to balance the question of whether quarantine is the right approach. People always want to talk about GDP – but seriously here is a case where money is not everything.

Here are a few key things I see from the data – as expected confirmation per capita SHOULD be higher for an open society vs. quarantine – Sweden saw one of the highest confirmation per capita at 8.5% – the US toped at 9.4%. – restrictive countries such as Germany had 50%+ less confirmation- however THIS did not translate to deaths – the death per capita did not get a 50% reduction – only 30% less. This indicates – IF DEATH major metric – closing up society did not benefit the many who sacrificed.

Countries who shut down still saw significant deaths e.g. UK. Asian countries amazingly saw limited issues. Perhaps we can say China is lying but doubt S. Korea, Thailand and Japan would be that far off. Western society lifestyle needs to be questioned IF we care to reduce the death impact of covid.

IF we can be all on an island and become isolated perhaps we can live with a high BMI as see in New Zealand.

Brazil and India is a global problem

Good thing India has some immunity/health – compared to Brazil

3rd wave driven by Brazil

US needs to help MI

LA back to leading deaths but it’s a small number relative to the peak.

Covid19mathblog.com

As we have been saying since May of last year (https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/05/covid-5-21-20/ ) – better late than never but we sure bought and cleaned surfaces way too much for over a year. Also closed unnecessary places. I suspects young kids did not build their natural immunity and will likely suffer in the long run as we got too clean. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/health/coronavirus-hygiene-cleaning-surfaces.html

“This week, the C.D.C. acknowledged what scientists have been saying for months: The risk of catching the coronavirus from surfaces is low.”

“Americans responded in kind, wiping down groceries, quarantining mail and clearing drugstore shelves of Clorox wipes. Facebook closed two of its offices for a “deep cleaning.” New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority began disinfecting subway cars every night.

But the era of “hygiene theater” may have come to an unofficial end this week, when the C.D.C. updated its surface cleaning guidelines and noted that the risk of contracting the virus from touching a contaminated surface was less than 1 in 10,000.”

““There’s really no evidence that anyone has ever gotten Covid-19 by touching a contaminated surface.””

““The scientific basis for all this concern about surfaces is very slim — slim to none,” said Emanuel Goldman, a microbiologist at Rutgers University, who wrote last summer that the risk of surface transmission had been overblown. “This is a virus you get by breathing. It’s not a virus you get by touching.””

““This should be the end of deep cleaning,” Dr. Allen said, noting that the misplaced focus on surfaces has had real costs. “It has led to closed playgrounds, it has led to taking nets off basketball courts, it has led to quarantining books in the library. It has led to entire missed school days for deep cleaning. It has led to not being able to share a pencil. So that’s all that hygiene theater, and it’s a direct result of not properly classifying surface transmission as low risk.””

Awful thing the article failed to note solutions to the way it is being transmitted via air. Where is the CO2 guideline? Why is that so hard to understand? CO2 is produce by people via breathing. IF well ventilated CO2 levels will be equivalent to ambient outdoors (400-600ppm) – IF it doubles that than you know the ventilation is limited in the facility you are in and you are at risk IF anyone is infected in the room. CO2 monitors are cheap. HVAC systems can be modified to push more fresh air. SO simple SO obvious…..

UK headed towards herd immunity? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-10/u-k-races-toward-elusive-milestone-in-quest-to-control-covid?

“UCL model suggests some 75% of U.K. population has antibodies”

“According to researchers at University College London, that’s when so-called herd immunity could be achieved in the U.K. Almost three-quarters of the population will have antibodies against the virus, either through vaccination or past infection, they estimate.

Britain has already seen a plunge in new cases and deaths, and the government will relax restrictions, including on outdoor dining, on Monday. Those developments have fueled hopes that the nation will soon shake off its Covid shackles.”

“Many other scientists think the U.K. is much further from herd immunity than UCL’s model suggests. It’s come under fire from some who say it overestimates the strength of vaccines and doesn’t adequately account for waning immunity and new virus variants. No more than 40% of the country has protection from Covid, according to estimates by Imperial College London.”

“Almost half of Britons have received at least one vaccine dose, compared with just 14% in the European Union, according to Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker. Still, after becoming an epicenter of a fresh Covid surge, there are tentative signs that Western Europe is turning the corner.”

“Shots may be needed for years to come, especially if the virus continues to mutate and circulates at lower levels, much like the flu.

“Longer-term, it’s going to be more like an epidemic where there are sometimes outbreaks and you’ll need to manage that,” said Matt Linley, a senior analyst at Airfinity.”

It is a fact UK is plummeting particularly when we look at other countries in Europe e.g. France Still big issues seen in India and Brazil as left unconstrained variants will be produced.

US continues below 1K – Brazil way up there

MI still top on confirmation. CA leads death

Wayne MI has been leading all counties. Help is likely needed there. LA continues to lead death but albeit at very small numbers.

You can see Wayne MI now leads in confirmation even comparing it to the big counties

Covid19mathblog.com

Another reason to not want to get covid regardless of death rate – Study: One in three survivors of COVID-19 have psychiatric problems after six months – Science (mashable.com)

“The study – which was published on April 6, 2021 in The Lancet Psychiatry journal – observed the health records of over 230,000 patients who had recovered from COVID-19, and found that about 34 percent had a neurological or psychiatric issue within six months.

More than just physical effects.

According to the study’s authors, this proved that COVID-19 patients were way more likely to develop brain-related conditions compared to individuals suffering from other respiratory infections such as the common cold, tonsillitis, and laryngitis.”

Canada issue? Americans Warned Not to Travel to Canada Even if Vaccinated | Complex CA

“The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is now suggesting Americans avoid traveling to Canada due to a high number of COVID-19 cases, even if they’re fully vaccinated.”

I think its best to end travel to Brazil and India.

Brazil and India flying high

Data revision for OK?

Perhap OK seeing the math on death reporting and have revised accordingly?

Time series data really sucks now…

Covid19mathblog.com

Beyond vaccine is treatment. Good news there are still studies evaluating treatment. This one uses various cells to evaluate efficacy. HCQ is in the study – I am sure many will pull the takeaway it was not effective on the lung cells – but other cells it did a decent job. This actually highlights that it is not a preventer but a mitigator of spread. If money was not an issue for sure remdesivir did very well – but looks like the winner is cyclosporine.

https://www.cell.com/cell-reports/fulltext/S2211-1247(21)00273-4?

“To identify new candidates, we screen a repurposing library of ∼3,000 drugs. Screening in Vero cells finds few antivirals, while screening in human Huh7.5 cells validates 23 diverse antiviral drugs. Extending our studies to lung epithelial cells, we find that there are major differences in drug sensitivity and entry pathways used by SARS-CoV-2 in these cells. Entry in lung epithelial Calu-3 cells is pH independent and requires TMPRSS2, while entry in Vero and Huh7.5 cells requires low pH and triggering by acid-dependent endosomal proteases. Moreover, we find nine drugs are antiviral in respiratory cells, seven of which have been used in humans, and three are US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved, including cyclosporine. We find that the antiviral activity of cyclosporine is targeting Cyclophilin rather than calcineurin, revealing essential host targets that have the potential for rapid clinical implementation.”

“Respiratory epithelial cells are the major cellular target for SARS-CoV-2 in vivo and have been used to explore the role of TMPRSS2 in infection. Perhaps surprisingly, although we found remdesivir was antiviral in respiratory Calu-3 cells, hydroxychloroquine was not.”

“we found that hydroxychloroquine and remdesivir were active in Vero cells with IC50s (concentration of a drug that is required for 50% inhibition) and CC50s (concetration of a drug that is required for 50% cell killing), demonstrating little cytotoxicity at the active doses (Figure 1B) (Wang et al., 2020).”

“Because Vero cells are derived from African green monkeys, we set out to identify a human cell line permissive to infection. To this end, we infected a panel of human cell lines with SARS-CoV-2 and monitored infection by microscopy.”

“Remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine were active against SARS-CoV-2 in Huh7.5 cells with IC50s that were more than 10-fold lower than those observed in Vero cells (Figure 2B).”

“We next focused on respiratory epithelial models because these are the most relevant to human SARS-CoV-2 infections. We found that a number of lung-derived epithelial cell lines were refractory to infection (e.g., A549, Calu-1, NCI-H292, CFBE41o). However, we found that Calu-3 cells, which have been shown to be permissive for many coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, were readily infected (Figure 3A) (Hoffmann et al., 2020; Sheahan et al., 2020; Shen et al., 1994). We optimized assays using Calu-3 cells and tested their sensitivity to remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine. As expected, we found that the direct-acting antiviral remdesivir was active; however, hydroxychloroquine had little or no activity in Calu-3 cells (Figure 3B).”

“Cyclosporine is an FDA-approved generic drug that is readily available and showed a micromolar IC50 with high selectivity in both Huh7.5 and Calu-3 cells (Figures 3 and 4; Figure S4). Cyclosporine binds Cyclophilin A and prevents activation of the phosphatase calcineurin, which is required for the nuclear translocation of the nuclear factor of activated T cells (NFAT) (Friedman and Weissman, 1991; Hogan et al., 2003; Liu et al., 1991). Inhibition of this pathway in T cells is used as an immunosuppressant (Matsuda and Koyasu, 2000). Cyclosporins have been shown to have antiviral activity against a wide variety of viruses, including other coronaviruses (“

I think its very important to always look back. Initial reports were asymptomatic people could be the cause of large spreads – this seems to not be the case – Asymptomatic transmission of covid-19 | The BMJ

“Earlier estimates that 80% of infections are asymptomatic were too high and have since been revised down to between 17% and 20% of people with infections.12 Studies estimating this proportion are limited by heterogeneity in case definitions, incomplete symptom assessment, and inadequate retrospective and prospective follow-up of symptoms, however.3 Around 49% of people initially defined as asymptomatic go on to develop symptoms.”

“It’s also unclear to what extent people with no symptoms transmit SARS-CoV-2. The only test for live virus is viral culture. PCR and lateral flow tests do not distinguish live virus. No test of infection or infectiousness is currently available for routine use.678 As things stand, a person who tests positive with any kind of test may or may not have an active infection with live virus, and may or may not be infectious.9

The relations between viral load, viral shedding, infection, infectiousness, and duration of infectiousness are not well understood. In a recent systematic review, no study was able to culture live virus from symptomatic participants after the ninth day of illness, despite persistently high viral loads in quantitative PCR diagnostic tests. However, cycle threshold (Ct) values from PCR tests are not direct measures of viral load and are subject to error”

“The transmission rates to contacts within a specific group (secondary attack rate) may be 3-25 times lower for people who are asymptomatic than for those with symptoms.1121415 A city-wide prevalence study of almost 10 million people in Wuhan found no evidence of asymptomatic transmission.16 Coughing, which is a prominent symptom of covid-19, may result in far more viral particles being shed than talking and breathing, so people with symptomatic infections are more contagious, irrespective of close contact.17 On the other hand, asymptomatic and presymptomatic people may have more contacts than symptomatic people (who are isolating), underlining the importance of hand washing and social distancing measures for everyone.”

Ready to style in the modern day mask world – onsale today – Will.i.am and Honeywell make bet on fashionable high-tech face masks (cnbc.com)

Its super bad in Brazil 4195 deaths

Brazil and India need to be resolved or inevitable more variants.

MI certainly has a spread problem. Ohio leads death perhaps another reporting change.

Miami dade leads all counties for confirm. Postive news only 2 counties showed up on my death screen. Might need to lower the threshold.

Covid19mathblog.com

This article highlights the need to stop massive spreads as variants will be created and will hamper vaccine efficacy. Perhaps its what the pharma want a perpetual need for vaccination. – Global rollout of vaccines is no longer a guarantee of victory over Covid-19 | Coronavirus | The Guardian

“No one is truly safe from Covid-19 until everyone is safe. We are in a race against time to get global transmission rates low enough to prevent the emergence and spread of new variants. The danger is that variants will arise that can overcome the immunity conferred by vaccinations or prior infection.”

“There are currently at least three documented Sars-CoV-2 variants of concern:

B.1.351, first reported in South Africa in December 2020

B.1.1.7, first reported in the United Kingdom in December 2020

P.1, first identified in Japan among travellers from Brazil in January 2021

Similar mutations are arising in different countries simultaneously, meaning not even border controls and high vaccination rates can necessarily protect countries from home-grown variants, including variants of concern, where there is substantial community transmission.

If there are high transmission levels, and hence extensive replication of Sars-CoV-2, anywhere in the world, more variants of concern will inevitably arise and the more infectious variants will dominate. With international mobility, these variants will spread.”

“Recent real-world evidence from the UK suggests both the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines provide significant protection against severe disease and hospitalisations from the B.1.1.7 variant.”

“Each time the virus replicates, there is an opportunity for a mutation to occur. And as we are already seeing around the world, some of the resulting variants risk eroding the effectiveness of vaccines.”

“Public health leaders should focus on efforts that maximally suppress viral infection rates, thus helping to prevent the emergence of mutations that can become new variants of concern.

Prompt vaccine rollouts alone will not be enough to achieve this; continued public health measures, such as face masks and physical distancing, will be vital too. Ventilation of indoor spaces is important – some of which is under people’s control, some of which will require adjustments to buildings.

Fair access to vaccines

Global equity in vaccine access is vital too. High-income countries should support multilateral mechanisms such as the Covax facility, donate excess vaccines to low- and middle-income countries, and support increased vaccine production.

However, to prevent the emergence of viral variants of concern, it may be necessary to prioritise countries or regions with the highest disease prevalence and transmission levels, where the risk of such variants emerging is greatest.”

Brazil and India still a big concern for the global variant production

Variants seem to be inevitable in test tubes such as Brazil and India

Confirmation per capita in every state seems to all be approaching 10%. MI leads confirmation. CA leads death

Wayne MI leads confirmation. LA leads death

Global vaccine front. Interesting to see Chile being so high per capita.

Covid19mathblog.com

Pay to play – Vaccine delays due to payment – Pfizer halts corona vaccine shipments to Israel after failure to pay – The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

“Pfizer has halted shipments of coronavirus vaccines to Israel in outrage over the country failing to approve transfer of payment for the last 2.5 million vaccines it supplied to the country, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

Senior officials at Pfizer have said they are concerned that the government-in-transition will not pay up and the company does not want to be taken advantage of. They said that they do not understand how such a situation can occur in an organized country.”

Not the best news – not sure if hyperbole or fact – no study pointed out in article – These People Are Now Major COVID Spreaders, Virus Expert Says | Eat This Not That

“A more infectious COVID-19 variant is now being easily spread by a group that had been relatively unaffected by the pandemic—children, said epidemiologist Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, on Sunday. “

“Osterholm noted that in Minnesota in the last two weeks, 749 schools had reported COVID cases. "Anywhere you look where you see this emerging, you see that kids are playing a huge role in the transmission of this," he said. "All the things that we had planned for about kids in schools with this virus are really no longer applicable. We’ve got to take a whole new look at this issue." Last week in neighboring Michigan, the state’s Department of Health and Human Services said that new COVID-19 cases in children younger than 10 rose by 230%, higher than any other age group. Children and young adults aged 10 to 19 saw a 227% rise in cases. “Much of the rise in pediatric cases can be linked to the reopening of schools and youth sports,” CBS News reported.

Osterholm said that B.1.1.7 is 50 to 100 percent more transmissible than previous strains of the coronavirus and causes 50 to 60 percent more severe illness. "The only good news about this," he noted, "is that the current vaccines are effective against this particular variant."

COVID tends to cause only mild illness in children, but those with underlying health conditions are at greater risk for severe illness. And as Osterholm noted, children can spread the disease to older adults who are more susceptible to complications.”

As noted over a week ago there is something going on in India – and likely not good – India reports national record 103,558 new Covid cases in 24 hours | Coronavirus | The Guardian

“India recorded 103,558 new Covid cases on Monday, its biggest ever one-day figure, data from the health ministry showed – taking the national total to 12.59 million cases.

The country added 478 new deaths, raising the toll to 165,101.

India has the world’s third-highest number of cases after the US, with 30 million, and Brazil, with just under 13 million.

Single-day infections have been rising since early February when they fell to below 9,000 after peaking at almost 100,000 in September.

India’s wealthiest state, Maharashtra, home to the financial capital, Mumbai, will impose a weekend lockdown and night curfew on its 110 million people in response to the rise in cases, authorities announced on Sunday.”

India still has long way to go confirmed per capita can easily double from the current level – Brazil continues to lead death

The only good thing for India is the deaths are still low compared to Brazil.

NY leads both confirmation and deaths

Looks like only FL and NY reported or it is very centralized to those two areas.

NM is almost there at herd immunity levels at least on a single dose basis

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine front there looks to be more vaccines coming – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/04/two-new-vaccines-on-the-way-with-more-to-follow-this-year

“The other jab due to arrive in the UK in the near future is being made by the US firm Novavax and uses genetically engineered cells, extracted from moths, to make pieces of coronavirus protein that will stimulate anti-Covid responses when injected into people. The company says it expects to be given approval in the US and UK next month and will manufacture its vaccines in 20 locations on four continents, which should help avoid cross-border supply issues. Novavax expects to be able to make 2bn doses of its vaccine this year.”

“The second vaccine likely to be ready for use in the UK by the end of the year is expected to be manufactured by France-based Valneva at its new manufacturing facility in West Lothian, Scotland. The vaccine contains inactivated Covid-19 particles that stimulate the body’s immune system into manufacturing antibodies that swarm round invading viruses and block their actions. The vaccine is still undergoing clinical trials. However, if approved, it is likely be rolled out around the country by the end of the year. The UK has ordered 100m doses”.

As we have been saying go outside get some sun – solution to pollution is dilution – also outside light kills – who would have known models can be wrong? https://arynews.tv/en/sunlight-destroys-covid-8-times-faster/

“A team of scientists is calling for further research into how sunlight inactivates SARS-CoV-2 after noticing a glaring inconsistency between the most recent theoretical and experimental results. UC Santa Barbara mechanical engineer Paolo Luzzatto-Fegiz and colleagues noticed the virus was inactivated as much as eight times faster in experiments than the most recent theoretical model predicted.”

“Short-wave UVC radiation has been shown to be effective against viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, even while it’s still safely enveloped in human fluids.

But this type of UV doesn’t usually come into contact with Earth’s surface, thanks to the ozone layer.

“UVC is great for hospitals,” said co-author and Oregon State University toxicologist Julie McMurry. “But in other environments – for instance, kitchens or subways – UVC would interact with the particulates to produce harmful ozone.”

In July 2020, an experimental study tested the effects of UV light on SARS-CoV-2 in simulated saliva. They recorded the virus was inactivated when exposed to simulated sunlight for between 10-20 minutes.

“Natural sunlight may be effective as a disinfectant for contaminated nonporous materials,” Wood and colleagues concluded in the paper.”

“This study found the SARS-CoV-2 virus was three times more sensitive to the UV in sunlight than influenza A, with 90 percent of the coronavirus’s particles being inactivated after just half an hour of exposure to midday sunlight in summer. By comparison, in winter light infectious particles could remain intact for days.”

“The researchers suspect it’s possible that instead of affecting the RNA directly, long-wave UVA may be interacting with molecules in the testing medium (simulated saliva) in a way that hastens the inactivation of the virus.

Something similar is seen in wastewater treatment – where UVA reacts with other substances to create molecules that damage viruses.

If UVA can be harnessed to combat SARS-CoV-2, cheap and energy-efficient wavelength-specific light sources might be useful in augmenting air filtration systems at relatively low risk for human health.”

However then we have the policy that promotes indoor gathering vs. outdoor – amazing to see this in Belgium – https://twitter.com/drdavidsamadi/status/1378289828417114113?s=19

Brazil leads death again – this time India leads confirmation

India has some amazing confirmations but deaths are still in check

Michigan leads confirmation – NY leads death

Looks like CA just didn’t report

Wayne MI and Kings NY lead all US counties

Vaccination in the US is taking off!