Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news – well at least you know you don’t need another vaccine shot for 6 months for Pfizer – still daunting to think this could be an annual event – so much bigger than the flu now that pushing the passport and access to everyday life – note – https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pfizer-says-its-shot-remains-more-than-91-effective-after-6-months-2404452

“Pfizer Says Its Shot Remains More Than 91% Effective After 6 Months

Follow-up data from a final-stage trial of 46,307 people showed the vaccine was 91.3% effective in preventing symptomatic cases starting one week after the second dose through as long as six months. In the U.S. alone, the efficacy rate was 92.6%, according to a report Thursday by the two companies.”

Lets just look at the numbers and stop arguing over schools and open them up – we are doing way more harm to the social structure of the youth – they will not get the benefits given the risk of death is essentially 0 for that age group plus hospitalization is low. So many irresponsible reporting blaming school opening on transmission – https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6536/eabe8372

“Over time, the share of age groups among reported deaths has been markedly constant, and the data provide no evidence that transmission shifted to younger age groups before school reopening, and no evidence that young adults aged 20 to 34 were the primary source of resurgent epidemics since the summer of 2020. Our key conclusion is that in locations where novel, highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 lineages have not yet become established, additional interventions among adults aged 20 to 49, such as mass vaccination with transmission-blocking vaccines, could bring resurgent COVID-19 epidemics under control and avert deaths.”

“The majority of COVID-19 infections originate from age groups 20 to 49”

Let me interject my hypothesis given all this data – healthy individual as much as a vaccinated person not likely to get infected and therefore not likely to participate in transmission. The younger you are the less likely your bad habits have developed to make you obese etc….In fact a healthy person inside an environment with covid will actually reduce viral load as there immune system will eliminate the virus. We know spouses who have stayed/slept with their infected spouse have not gotten sick. There is a level of immunity from a healthy immune system.

Unintended consequences from our response to covid – they are not all bad – https://spectrum.ieee.org/news-from-around-ieee/the-institute/ieee-member-news/covid19s-effect-on-air-quality-can-be-seen-from-space

“Since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists and civilians on the ground have observed a sharp improvement in air quality, especially over quarantined regions.”

““The study showed the positive impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on the air quality,” Loyola says. But he notes that the drop in air pollution will be temporary and that long-term emissions are still a health concern.”

New Wave discussion I think likely overblown given continued vaccination and already infected people. Maintaining confirmations is important to minimize variants. France, Brazil, and India who per capita confirmed and/or vaccinations per capita are very low and are areas we need to resolve. Yes people are getting re-infected by variants but the positive note is the illness is much less the second time around. In theory, the deaths should be much lower and the vaccinations SHOULD have been focused on the elderly in the beginning which have the MAJORITY of deaths. The results of any additional wave should be muted in terms of Death and Hospitalization or we have spent all this money on vaccines for nothing. In addition known treatment should be significantly improved. At some point this SHOULD be at a level similar to the flu – deaths will happen but it becomes at a “tolerable” range as it was with flu.

Brazil deaths continue to rise.

Brazil, India, and France are the concerned area. Many countries are showing a rise but so far in a controlled manor.

For the US TOTAL weekly deaths below last year and approaching the 2014-2019 average.

NY leading confirmation – while TX led deaths.

Miami Dade led US counties in confirmed – while Harris, TX (Houston) leads in death.

NY opening experiment did not coincide well with increased confirmations.

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Vaccine positive news for mRNA vaccine – https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm

“Prospective cohorts of 3,950 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing for 13 consecutive weeks. Under real-world conditions, mRNA vaccine effectiveness of full immunization (≥14 days after second dose) was 90% against SARS-CoV-2 infections regardless of symptom status; vaccine effectiveness of partial immunization (≥14 days after first dose but before second dose) was 80%.”

Unfortunate in the study is the lack of age break out on those that got infected that were unvaccinated. I have asked for the information. One cannot conclude that being vaccinated and young healthy produces a significant difference.

Negative vaccine news – J&J skin side effect – does not look good could alter someones risk/reward but note he is 74 – https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/skin-peeling-after-covid-vaccine

“A Virginia man who got his COVID-19 vaccine in March experienced an "extremely rare" reaction to the shot within days of his vaccination—first an itchy rash, then pain, redness, swelling, and peeling skin across his body that landed him in the hospital for five days.

Richard Terrell, 74, got the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine on March 6. Days later, he developed itching under his arm.”

“"It all just happened so fast. My skin peeled off," he told WRIC. He consulted a dermatologist, who sent him straight to the ER.

"It was stinging, burning, and itching. Whenever I bent my arms or legs, like the inside of my knee, it was very painful where the skin was swollen and was rubbing against itself," Terrell told the outlet. He spent five days in the hospital, where his legs, hands, and arms swelled, turned purple, and became very painful.

In the hospital, doctors determined that Terrell’s symptoms were a rare reaction to the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine.”

Brazil still soaring – US just at 1076 deaths. US in theory COULD be at 25% immunity if you add the confirmed and the vaccinated and assume different pool.

Brazil, India, and France are the big issue areas.

NY leading confirmation – CA leading death

Providence RI leads all counties in confirmation. LA leads death

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Vaccine news Pfizer studies confirm effectiveness to 12-15 – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-31/teens-100-protected-by-pfizer-vaccine-in-study-company-says

“In the study of 2,260 adolescents, the vaccine produced antibodies against the Covid-19 that exceeded the level seen in vaccinated young adults, Pfizer and BioNTech said in a statement. All 18 cases of Covid-19 in the study were in adolescents who were administered a placebo, the companies said. Side effects were consistent with those experienced by people ages 16 to 25.”

So they are studying a group that is only likely going to get infected with an odd of only 1.6% in their own study. What is the risk/reward here? Death for under 24 is 0.2% Transmission from youth from school data shows students are not the major source of spread.

Then we have the fact IF you are young and also healthy the hospitalization and death are reduced. Latest CDC study shows 78% deaths from obese patients – https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e4.htm

Over 30 BMI a big jump from the sample pool for hospitalization and death.

Being under 40 there are other factors creating a more pronounced U shape curve for ICU and hospitalization. Other age group clear issue for being Obese. You do not want to be too skinny – you need to have some mass to fight the disease.

Vaccine passports are a scary topic. I will say that the odds of a person being infected to be able to transmit is not clear. I would contend that an older unhealthy person that has taken vaccine is more likely to be a danger to spread an infection than a young healthy person without vaccine. Why would vaccine be the only discriminatory cut off? The more healthy you are the less likely you will get infected to be able to transmit. Being healthy still is the best choice. Is there a healthy passport?

Brazil 3.8K deaths and 80K+ infected….very bad situation for the world

The only good news for Brazil confirmation is holding steady. India and France con

MI leading in confirmation. TX leads in death

LA falling of the list. Miami Dade now leads all US counties for death and confirmation.

Clearly NY still the biggest issue for confirmation.

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Vaccine real life study shows effectiveness 90%- also second dose only adds 10% more –https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w

“Prospective cohorts of 3,950 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing for 13 consecutive weeks. Under real-world conditions, mRNA vaccine effectiveness of full immunization (≥14 days after second dose) was 90% against SARS-CoV-2 infections regardless of symptom status; vaccine effectiveness of partial immunization (≥14 days after first dose but before second dose) was 80%.”

WHO report pointing to wildlife farms not sea market as source – https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/29/982272319/who-report-wildlife-farms-not-market-likely-source-of-coronavirus-pandemic?

“NPR has obtained an early copy. According to the report, data suggests that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was not the original source of the outbreak.

In addition, the report noted that "introduction through a laboratory incident" — a leak from the lab in Wuhan — "was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway."

The report further suggests that animals in livestock farms in southeast Asia could be "linked to early human cases" and that further study on these farms is needed.

In an exclusive interview with NPR last week, Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist who was part of the investigative team that did two weeks of research in China, noted that wildlife farms supply vendors at the Wuhan market, which early had been identified as a possible starting point of the pandemic.”

IF there is another wave its our failure to recognize the simple plain truth that we spend enormous times indoor and we need to reduce viral loads in those environments. There are mechanical solutions and detection systems to understand you may not be in safe environment. CO2 sensors can be purchased for under 100 on amazon. One can modify HVAC to introduce more fresh air. This article highlights levels to watch for and shows the obvious – https://english.elpais.com/usa/2021-03-29/how-to-avoid-coronavirus-infection-in-indoor-spaces-dont-breathe-other-peoples-air.html

“During this pandemic, it has been shown that poorly ventilated buildings are the most dangerous environments of all because particles containing the virus can linger in the air until someone breathes them in. And although we do not have a device that can show these particles, we can measure the air quality and CO₂ concentration using a meter. The higher the concentration of CO₂, which is exhaled when we breathe, the worse the room’s ventilation. A simple measurement allows us to know if the room is loaded with air exhaled by other people or if it is well ventilated, thereby drastically reducing the risk of infection.”

“The air we breathe outside contains an average of 412 parts-per-million (ppm) of CO2. If we observe this figure on a meter, the air has not been exhaled by anyone.”

“1000 ppm WHO limit for healthy air quality”

US under 1K. Brazil continues to lead deaths

Brazil confirmation is starting to slow…so that’s a good sign – unfortunately death is still exponential.

Michigan leads confirm followed by NY. NY leads death followed by CA

Dispersion of confirmation is alarming.

Even though MI and NY are relatively closed they are still registering high confirmations – clearly policy is not leading to results.

Last 30 days confirmation view by county in US. Perhaps NY opening up restaurants without guidelines for ventilation/CO2 measure may have led to increased confirmation.

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news – J&J approved in S. Korea – https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-south-korea-johnson-johnson-vaccine-expert-panel-14515236

“Johnson & Johnson vaccine will be the third COVID-19 vaccine authorised in South Korea, following ones from AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech, both of which require two doses.”

Once again something relatively cost effective which should be freely distributed at least in hot spots – Vitamin D – which we have been saying since the beginning back in the news – https://whyy.org/articles/a-new-study-shows-vitamin-d-can-lower-covid-19-risk-especially-for-black-people/

“Researchers at the University of Chicago Medicine say that vitamin D levels above those traditionally considered sufficient — 30 ng/ml (nanograms per milliliter) — may lower the risk of coronavirus infection, particularly for Black people, who have been disproportionately affected by the virus and frequently suffer from vitamin D deficiency.

This study, published March 19, expands on an earlier report from UChicago Medicine, in which researchers last year found that patients with untreated vitamin D deficiency were almost twice as likely to test positive for COVID-19 compared to patients with sufficient levels of vitamin D.”

“In March 2020, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tom Frieden, suggested that adequate vitamin D may potentially provide some modest protection for vulnerable populations. Frieden also argued that vitamin D reduces the risk of respiratory infection, and can limit the risk of other viruses like the flu.”

Also noted before Fauci takes Vitamin D – yet we cant seem to offer it free in hotspots and promote its usage?

US back under 1K. Brazil still leading

France is going exponential with Brazil and India in terms of confirmation.

NY leads confirmation CA leads death

Leading county is Bexar (San Antonio TX) for confirmation. San Bernadino CA continues to lead deaths.

Vaccine doses are rising – this should rise as restrictions are opened.

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Good news on vaccine front for Pfizer – highlights even if you were previously infected the vaccine increases response for potential later infection – and 1 shot is effective – https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/covid-vaccine-study-newcastle-health-20272535

“A major Covid-19 vaccine study involving North East experts showed that 99% of people taking part generated a robust immune response after just one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.”

“It found people who had previously been infected with Covid-19 showed higher T cell and antibody responses after one dose of the vaccine compared with people who had never had the virus before and had one dose of the vaccine. However, the researchers also discovered that among previously infected individuals, the T cell response expanded after vaccination to recognise more regions of the Covid-19 spike protein – the protein that attacks the immune system and causes severe disease.

This means vaccination provides a better immune response to Covid-19, including against variants, than the immune response from natural infection.”

“"A second vaccine jab is crucial for longer-term protection, regardless of whether you have previously had Covid-19 or not, and I urge everyone to make sure they attend their second appointment – to keep themselves and those around them safe."”

Brazil continues to expand – variants will likely grow in this environment. The world needs to assist Brazil. Mexico still one of the worse place to get Covid 9% fatality rate – yet super low vaccination rates.

India France and Brazil continue to show increasing confirmation approaching exponential growth.

NY leads confirmation. CA leads death

After NYC counties – Harris county TX is next in confirmation. San Bernadino continue to lead deaths for US counties

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Lots of talk about energy security – how about manufacturing security – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9404901/Now-India-bans-AstraZeneca-exports-fresh-blow-Britains-supply-chain-woes.html

“India has banned exports of the AstraZeneca jab being made at the Serum Institute so it can use them for its own citizens, delaying a shipment of five million doses bound for the UK.”

“Insiders say AstraZeneca’s supplies can be made entirely in the UK and the five million-dose boost from India was not critical to meeting government targets, meaning the delivery from India may be a disappointment rather than a crisis.

But all of the country’s Pfizer doses are made in factories in Europe – the firm and its partner BioNTech have major facilities in Belgium and Germany – and international shipping is vital to make sure people get their second doses.

More than 12million Pfizer doses have already been sent to Britain and the NHS needs at least the same number again by June to make sure everyone gets their booster jab within three months, as promised by the government.

Medics have already stopped giving out the vaccine to first-time patients so it can prioritise all the Pfizer supplies – which are now in danger of grinding to a halt – for existing patients’ second doses. “

“Britain is totally reliant on deliveries from Belgium and Germany to be able to use Pfizer’s jab, whereas it makes AstraZeneca’s at home in England and Wales.

How badly would the UK’s vaccine drive suffer if the EU blocked exports?

If the European Union blocked all exports of coronavirus vaccines made on its turf, Britain could remain self-sufficient and still get jabs to the entire population.

If the European Union successfully stopped Pfizer and BioNTech shipping the vaccine to the UK in order to give the doses to its own citizens, Britain could be left without the second doses it has promised to millions of people.”

“AstraZeneca claims it can make two million doses per week in the UK to supply exclusively to the NHS.”

Israel is still the far away the most vaccinated place over 54% of per capita. US is faring decently at over 14%

Brazil leads death over 2K. US still strong at 1.5K

France and Germany showing signs of another wave. Brazil and India full blow issue still

NY leads confirmation and CA leads death

San Bernadino leads all counite sin death. LA 3rd place.

Confirmations continue to show up across the country. I wonder if vaccinated people who show up not feeling well get confirmed?

Covid19mathblog.com

AstraZeneca is losing its credibility with each hiccup – this time lower the efficacy by 3% – https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/covid-vaccine-astrazeneca-issues-updated-phase-3-trial-data.html

“The company now says its vaccine is 76% effective in protecting against symptomatic cases of virus. A release issued on Monday reported a symptomatic efficacy rate of 79%. The updated report maintains that the shot is 100% effective against severe disease and hospitalization.”

All these variants are already an issue. Variants happen as you create a breeding ground – therefore letting other countries not solve their issue will lead to world problem unless you isolate that country. Now we have double mutant variant – https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56517495

“A new "double mutant" variant of the coronavirus has been detected from samples collected in India.

Scientists are checking if the variant, where two mutations come together in the same virus, may be more infectious or less affected by vaccines.”

“The government said that an analysis of the samples collected from the western state of Maharashtra showed "an increase in the fraction of samples with the E484Q and L452R mutations" compared with December last year.

"Such [double] mutations confer immune escape and increased infectivity," the health ministry said in a statement.”

“scientists say reinfections will be very mild compared to primary infections in people who are vaccinated or who recovered already from an earlier case of Covid-19.

But if the virus can use reinfection to spread, then it would be "penetrating" herd immunity, says Dr Kamil. (Herd immunity happens when a large portion of a community becomes immune to a disease through vaccination or through the mass spread of the disease.)”

In the end its about getting healthy now. A metric for good health is 40 push ups in one sitting – right now I am at 35. Got to get better myself – https://bestlifeonline.com/push-ups-heart-risk-news/

“firefighters who could do 11 push-ups or more saw a significant risk reduction; they were 64 percent less likely to develop heart disease than those who maxed out at 10.”

“the men who could knock out more than 40 push-ups were 96 percent less likely to develop heart disease a decade later than the sub-10 group.”

US death jump to almost 1500 – confirmation very high along with Brazil

Confirm – India moving into another waver – Brazil continues to be in a steady rise. Europe still not in a clear new wave.

Something going on NY – huge jump in confirmation and deaths

NY changes all centered around NYC

NYC counties all big jump in confirmation. LA still lead in deaths

Pace of vaccination has stopped rising.

Covid19mathblog.com

Pandemic not endemic – pharma can do only so much at so much cost – its time to get healthy – IF serious certain foods should be banned/restricted this cost is much less than closing society and funding perpetual vaccine development – https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-24/when-will-covid-end-we-must-start-planning-for-a-permanent-pandemic

“Most epidemics disappear once populations achieve herd immunity and the pathogen has too few vulnerable bodies available as hosts for its self-propagation. This herd protection comes about through the combination of natural immunity in people who’ve recovered from infection and vaccination of the remaining population.

In the case of SARS-CoV-2, however, recent developments suggest that we may never achieve herd immunity. Even the U.S., which leads most other countries in vaccinations and already had large outbreaks, won’t get there. That’s the upshot of an analysis by Christopher Murray at the University of Washington and Peter Piot at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

The main reason is the ongoing emergence of new variants that behave almost like new viruses. A clinical vaccine trial in South Africa showed that people in the placebo group who had previously been infected with one strain had no immunity against its mutated descendant and became reinfected. There are similar reports from parts of Brazil that had massive outbreaks and subsequently suffered renewed epidemics.”

Brazil was detected as an issue for awhile here – now finally getting some press perhaps too late as noted above variants make it impossible to stop – https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/23/980391847/brazil-is-looking-like-the-worst-place-on-earth-for-covid-19

“The country is now widely viewed as the epicenter of the pandemic, with the highest number of daily deaths of any nation. On Tuesday, that number topped 3,000 for the first time, with 3,251 deaths recorded.

And this week, Brazil’s registered COVID-19 deaths will rise above 300,000 — a toll exceeded only by the United States. Ribeiro bleakly remarks that this number is about the same as the population of her city.”

“So far, three COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized by Brazil’s health regulators: – AstraZeneca, Coronavac and Pfizer. Fewer than 7% of Brazilians have had one dose.”

“With the virus out of control, he believes Brazil is a breeding ground for more variants, that could prove even more lethal and spread to other countries.

"The virus is circulating so widely in Brazil that it is possible, and I would say likely, that new variants will appear in the near future. We need to stop that urgently," he said.

Hallal wants an international task force, comprised of governments, health organizations and pharmaceutical companies, to get far more vaccines to Brazil as soon as possible. If not, "global efforts to control COVID-19 will be jeopardized", he says.”

“"We need vaccines now! We have to intercept the transmission of this virus in the community. We already have four variants . . . responsible for most of the cases in seven states of Brazil. This is [a] very, very worrying fact."

Dr. Hallal puts this in starker terms: "If we do not have enough vaccines in the next 30 to 45 days, the situation will be terrible — not only for Brazil, but for the rest of the world."”

I still find it interesting discussion of shutting down Europe. The data perhaps shows a potential for a third wave buts its not there. The weather plus the vaccine distribution SHOULD put Europe in a better spot than the last wave. Brazil as noted in the graph below is in another league – that’s serious world global issue – unless planning to lockdown Brazil which is a major exporter of various commodities.

US still under 1K – Brazil over 3K

FL leads confirmation and CA leads death

Miami-Dade leads confirmation and LA leads deaths for US counties

Confirmation dispersion a little worrisome for US. If a variant that vaccine and/or previous infection becomes ineffective we are back to square one.

Covid19mathblog.com

Pfizer not as effective with S. African variant – also for not just vaccinated people but people who had got infected before – https://www.timesofisrael.com/pfizer-vaccine-less-effective-against-south-african-variant-israeli-study-finds/

““Our study validates the clinical efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine, but raises concerns regarding its efficacy against specific SARS-CoV-2 circulating variants,” the authors wrote. “Overall, these results call for a close attention of variant spread, and a [possibility] for new vaccines with improved neutralizing potency against SARS-CoV-2 variants.””

“People who recovered from the virus were also less protected against the South African strain than the British variant.

The authors said people who had been infected by the South African variant were probably unlikely to get reinfected by the same variant.”

This is very important to understand in that IF there is a situation to produce more variants we need to avoid it e.g. Brazil.

It is very bad in Brazil. Europe is talking about quarantine but their data is not even close to Brazil issues.

US falling to 4th spot – under 600 deaths! Brazil on top at 1383

MI leads confirmation – CA leads death

Wayne Michigan leads confirmation. Tarrant TX leads death.