Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine News:

Astrazenca found the issue with the the blood clot and has a solution – https://www.dw.com/en/astrazeneca-german-team-discovers-thrombosis-trigger/a-56925550

“Researchers at the Greifswald teaching hospital in northern Germany said on Friday that they had discovered the cause of the unusual blood clotting found in some recipients of the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine, public broadcaster Norddeutscher Rundfunk (NDR) reported.

The investigation showed how the vaccine caused rare thrombosis in the brain in a small number of patients.

The discovery means that targeted treatment can be offered to those who suffer similar clotting, using a very common medication.

The success was a result of cooperation between the Greifswald hospital, state health regulator the Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI), as well as doctors in Austria — a nurse there died from thrombosis in the brain after being vaccinated with the AstraZeneca jab.

The researchers emphasized that treatment would only be possible in patients where blood clots appear, rather than as a preventative treatment.”

AstraZeneca vaccine found effective in US study – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/business/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine.html

“AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 Vaccine Is Found to Be 79% Effective in U.S. Study”

“If AstraZeneca’s vaccine is authorized for use in the United States, it is unlikely to become available before May, when federal officials predict that there will be enough vaccine doses for all the nation’s adults from the three manufacturers that already have authorization.”

Game changer for distribution is a vaccine in a pill form vs. shots – https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-company-says-oral-covid-19-vaccine-on-its-way-662712

“An Israeli-American pharmaceutical company is preparing to launch a Phase I clinical trial for what could become the world’s first oral COVID-19 vaccine.

Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc., a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company based on technology developed by Hadassah-University Medical Center, announced over the weekend a joint venture with Premas Biotech to develop a novel oral vaccine. Together they formed the company Oravax Medical Inc. The vaccine is based on Oramed’s “POD” oral delivery technology and Premas’s vaccine technology.”

Interesting we see that diabetes could be a result of getting covid – since the vaccine may prevent that Krispy Kreme is stepping in and offering free donuts for those vaccinated – https://fortune.com/2021/03/22/krispy-kreme-free-doughnut-covid-vaccine-card-free-donuts-what-to-know/

“Krispy Kreme is upping the incentives for people to get their COVID-19 vaccine.

The chain says it will offer a free original glazed doughnut to anyone who shows their vaccination card for the rest of 2021, starting today. And the offer is not a one-time deal.

Customers can come in any day, at any time to claim the free treat. No additional purchase is necessary. Krispy Kreme says it also plans to randomly delivery doughnuts to health care workers and volunteers at vaccination centers in the coming weeks.”

US under 500 deaths – Brazil still leads both metrics

Continue to read the third wave in Europe – but its not certain that is happening in the major countries. Brazil for sure is in a 3rd wave and the world should figure a way to help them as if it continues a new variant becomes inevitable.

FL and NY lead in confirmation with CA leading in death for the US

Confirmation dispersion in US becomes more obvious as the extent of confirmation coming from LA is coming down

Lowered our threshold for the confirmation and deaths. Miami Dade leads confirmation while Orange county leads death for the US

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WHO report on origin of Covid19 coming out – https://www.livescience.com/who-says-china-wildlife-farms-may-be-source-covid-19.html

“After a months-long investigation, the World Health Organization (WHO) has found that wildlife farms in China are likely the source of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“The wildlife farms are part of a project that the Chinese government has been promoting for 20 years to lift rural populations out of poverty and close the rural-urban divide, according to Daszak and NPR.”

“But in February 2020, China shut down those farms, likely because the Chinese government thought that they were part of the transmission pathway from bats to humans, Daszak said. The government sent out instructions to farmers about how to bury, kill or burn the animals in a way that wouldn’t spread disease, Daszak told NPR.”

Collateral damage from covid response and it’s the youth who is seeing the most negative impact from the response the very group who is least rewarded from the actions – https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/08/covid-set-to-cause-400000-surge-in-tb-deaths-as-medics-diverted

“In many countries – including South Africa, India and Indonesia – doctors and health workers have been shifted from tracking TB cases to tracing people infected with Covid-19. Equipment and budgets have also been reassigned, an investigation by the World Health Organisation (WHO) has revealed.

As a result, millions of TB diagnoses have been missed, and according to the WHO this is likely to result in 200,000 to 400,000 excess deaths from the disease this year alone, with a further million new cases occurring every year after that for the next five years”

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/across-virtually-every-key-measure-childhood-progress-has-gone-backward-unicef-says

“As of March 2021, 13 per cent of 71 million COVID-19 infections in 107 countries (62 per cent of the total global infections) with data by age are among children and adolescents under 20 years of age.

In developing countries, child poverty is expected to increase by around 15 per cent. An additional 140 million children in these countries are also already projected to be in households living below the poverty line.

Schools for more than 168 million schoolchildren globally have been closed for almost a year. Two-thirds of countries with full or partial closures are in Latin America and the Caribbean.

At least 1 in 3 schoolchildren has been unable to access remote learning while their schools were closed.

Around 10 million additional child marriages may occur before the end of the decade, threatening years of progress in reducing the practice.

At least 1 in 7 children and young people has lived under stay-at-home policies for most of the last year, leading to feelings of anxiety, depression and isolation.

As of November 2020, an additional 6 to 7 million children under age 5 may have suffered from wasting or acute malnutrition in 2020, resulting in almost 54 million wasted children, a 14 per cent rise that could translate into more than 10,000 additional child deaths per month – mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. With a 40 per cent decline in nutrition services for children and women, many other nutrition outcomes can worsen.

As of November 2020, more than 94 million people were at risk of missing vaccines due to paused measles campaigns in 26 countries.

As of November 2020, in 59 countries with available data, refugees and asylum seekers are unable to access COVID-19-related social protection support due to border closures and rising xenophobia and exclusion.

Around 3 billion people worldwide lack basic handwashing facilities with soap and water at home. In the least developed countries, three quarters of people, more than two-thirds of schools and a quarter of health care facilities lack the basic hygiene services needed to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. On average 700 children under-five die every day from diseases caused by the lack of water, sanitation and hygiene.”

Vaccine benefit being passed to newborn – https://abc7ny.com/florida-baby-boca-raton-covid-antibodies-newborn/10421074/

“A woman in Florida is believed to be the first to give birth to a baby with COVID antibodies.

The Boca Raton woman received a single dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. Three weeks later, doctors say she gave birth to a healthy baby girl.

They say her cord blood had antibodies against COVID.

Doctors hope this leads to further studies of maternal COVID vaccinations to protect babies as well.”

Brazil continues to lead both confirmation and deaths US under 2K

There is still much chatter about 3rd wave in Europe – not seen in Germany or UK yet. But Brazil is going parabolic

NY leads in confirmation – Kentucky leads death – likely data revision

Confirmation limits likely need to be lowered in the graph – as the typical big three county showing up – Miami-Dade, Cook, and LA. Jefferson leads LA but likely not for long as this is likely a reclassify.

US death still above normal range but getting close to coming back to normal that is 2014-2019 avg.

You can see dispersion throughout KY indicating a reclassification.

Europe is showing an increase but its still not a full blown ramp as compared to S. America driven by Brazil. US continues to decline

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I find this kind of weird – are the risk reward align for such a young age group? https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/health/moderna-vaccine-children.html

“The drug company Moderna has begun a study that will test its Covid vaccine in children under 12, including babies as young as six months old, the company said on Tuesday.”

“Dr. Wohl said the study appeared well designed and likely to be efficient, but he questioned why the children were to be followed for only one year, when adults in Moderna’s study are followed for two years. He also said he was somewhat surprised to see the vaccine being tested in children so young this soon.”

Perhaps a rationalization is to prevent transmission – but begs the question how much transmission comes from younger group. Much of the school data shows issue is the teacher not students. Vaccine showing reduces transmission – https://www.verywellhealth.com/pfizer-vaccine-prevents-covid-transmission-5116193

“Pfizer announced that its COVID-19 vaccine can help prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Research has shown that the vaccine is 94% effective at preventing the spread of COVID-19.

Doctors say that it’s likely the other COVID-19 vaccines authorized for use in the U.S. will have similar results.”

Sad note that Pharma wins if we cant get healthy then will just be doing annual boosters for the rest of our lives – https://www.axios.com/covid-boosters-routine-0a5e0f06-b2e8-4e0c-ac0d-085507e3d404.html?

“Both sides of the Atlantic are delivering the same message right now: COVID-19 vaccine boosters will become a regular part of our life for years to come.”

A big concern for me for a long time is the youth is not building their immune system given how clean we went. We went so clean hardly any regular flu and big reduction in respiratory diseases – https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-meant-a-year-without-the-flu-thats-not-all-good-news/

“And it’s not just the flu. Case numbers for respiratory syncytial virus, which primarily affects babies and, like influenza, has a seasonal rhythm, also bottomed out. According to a paper that came out last week, the missing-in-action list also includes enterovirus D68, a likely culprit behind the polio-like kids’ disease acute flaccid myelitis. The virus and AFM come and go on a roughly every-other-year cycle, and the last round in North America was in 2018. In 2020, they, too, missed their cue.”

“(Despite early fears, surface transmission, via “fomites,” seems not to have been an issue for Covid-19.)”

“What worries modelers, though, isn’t so much the flu-less winter of 2020-21 but the next seasons for the flu, RSV, and EV-D68. Epidemiologic models that establish parameters for counting the numbers of susceptible, infected, and recovered people—SIR models—show some variation of the same worrisome outcome: After a season in which none of the susceptible people turn into infected people, the next season is a lot worse.”

I have always been a proponent of nose sprays – Xlear and Nozin when I travel – here is another option coming – https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/israeli-maker-of-nose-spray-that-kills-covid-19-applies-for-uk-rollout/

“The Israeli-led maker of a “revolutionary” nasal spray that fights COVID-19 is to apply for emergency permission to use it in the UK after announcing the results of a successful trial.

Biotech firm SaNOtize said its testing showed the spray successfully reduced the severity of the virus in patients and prevented it being transmitted to others. The Nitric Oxide Nasal Spray (NONS) is designed to kill the virus in the upper airways of the body, preventing it from incubating and spreading to the lungs. ”

If you don’t want to take vaccines the rest of your life getting healthy offers multiple benefits – one thing to stay away from soda – https://www.eatthis.com/news-surprising-side-effects-soda-immune-system/

“Since soda is primarily made of sugar and sugar is known to weaken immune function, it’s fair to say that soda can wreak havoc on your body’s ability to combat illness”

“sugar in soda affects your immune system’s white blood cells, and these all-important cells are responsible for fighting infection. This is why white blood cells are commonly referred to as the "killer cells." Those who have type 2 diabetes are already susceptible to other serious health complications, such as adverse symptoms of COVID-19, so it’s critical that they keep their non-diet soda consumption low.”

“Routinely drinking sugar-sweetened beverages can decrease your insulin sensitivity, which is a major risk factor for developing type 2 diabetes. Aside from cutting soda out of your diet, other ways you can improve insulin sensitivity is by removing saturated fats found in processed foods and red meat as well as by implementing a diverse exercise routine.”

“One clinical trial even found that people who drank regular soda—versus those who drank diet soda, milk, or just water—had higher levels of uric acid, which is known to promote inflammation and even insulin resistance (a major indicator of type 2 diabetes).”

“According to the Obesity Action Coalition, several studies have shown that obesity can impair immunity in a variety of ways, from decreased cytokine production to altered lymphocyte function.”

Brazil continues to top the list in confirm and deaths.

Brazil looks to be going parabolic

NY confirmations are leading the country – TX leads death over CA

Data is becoming more disperse as LA drops

Harris TX county leads nation in confirmation – LA still leads in death

LA confirmations continue to drop – death drops should follow

Covid19mathblog.com

Not the best of news for covid

Vaccine issues – https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/03/14/3-fully-vaccinated-people-catch-covid-19-coronavirus-says-hawaii-doh/?sh=5f971f626247

“According to the Hawaii Department of Health (DOH), three people in Hawaii who had received both doses of either the Moderna or the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine subsequently tested positive for the Covid-19 coronavirus. Additionally, a fourth person who had received the first of two doses of the vaccine ended up catching the B.1.1.7 variant of the severe acute respiratory respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2). That be a more contagious version of the SARS-CoV2.”

“just because you catch the virus after getting fully vaccinated doesn’t mean that the vaccine didn’t help you. You don’t know how much worse the infection could have been without the vaccine, unless you’ve somehow mastered time travel. And time travel may not even be possible. Otherwise, surely someone from the future would have come back and told us how to make toothpaste tubes better by now.”

Blood clot from AstaZeneca vaccine? – https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/ireland-suspends-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-blood-clot-reports

“Irish health officials on Sunday recommended the temporary suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine after reports of serious blood clotting after inoculations in Norway.

Dr. Ronan Glynn, Ireland’s deputy chief medical officer, said the recommendation was made after Norway’s medicines agency reported four cases of blood clotting in adults after receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine.

He said that while there was no conclusive link between the vaccine and the cases, Irish health officials are recommending the suspension of the vaccine’s rollout as a precaution. Danish, Norwegian and Icelandic authorities have taken similar precautionary steps.”

Still there is a great reason to not get Covid even if death is off the table – long term impact of covid could be diabetes – https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/a-new-covid-19-side-effect-some-patients-are-developing-sudden-onset-diabetes-1.5346561

“Among all the manifestations and complications of COVID-19, yet another puzzling question is emerging — is the virus triggering cases of diabetes?

Like many doctors around the world, Dr. Mihail Zilbermint began noticing something strange midway in the pandemic.

More and more people seemed to be suddenly developing diabetes.”

Or potentially worse imagine living a life where everything smells bad – https://www.wspa.com/news/parosmia-is-the-rancid-smelling-aftermath-of-covid-19-that-has-many-concerned/

“An increasing number of patients are now suffering from a strange condition after recovering from COVID-19. It’s called parosmia, and it’s leaving patients with a foul smell.

Parosmia is a condition that distorts a person’s sense of smell. The condition can cause one to lose the intensity of his or her smell. But more frequently, it can cause one to experience an overpowering rancid scent. It can happen either around smells that are normally pleasant or around nothing at all.”

“Meskunas said this could be a lifelong battle for her daughter, all because of COVID.”

US below 1K – Brazil still the leader

Brazil still in dire shape given the curve. Germany still not a big issue as noted in the press.

New York continues to lead in confirmation. Opening up without any guidelines likely an awful decision on their part. CA continues to lead death.

NY counties lead confirmations. LA not leading deaths – neighboring county

Confirmation for LA back in the pack – deaths still way above other counties.

Covid19mathblog.com

There is something going on in Brazil. Once again leading in deaths with US under 2K. The amount of test is lower than those confirmed in Brazil. Vaccine per capita is very low given the issues they have.

Brazil could go exponential. If it goes exponential expect more vairants to formed in Brazil. Quarantine of Brazil may be the optioned used by many countries to contain the issue. Vaccines nee

Similar to the US its not the overall country but starting from one location and spreading out. Sao Paolo is the LA county of Brazil.

TX leads confirmation and CA leads death for US

LA county leads all US counties in both categories

TX had a dispersion of confirmation

Miami-Dade is going for herd immunity – already over 15% per capita confirmed.

Covid19mathblog.com

Good news on vaccine variant front – https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/vaccines-are-working-shouldnt-panic-variants-rcna372

“Several new coronavirus variants have been identified in the United States in recent weeks, and scientists are grappling with whether these strains threaten the country — and, if so, how.

One thing experts agree on, though, is that the available vaccines have outperformed expectations — even when it comes to what are known as the "variants of concern."

"This virus is not invincible, and despite all these variants, the vaccines are working great," said Jeremy Kamil, an associate professor of microbiology and immunology at Louisiana State University Health Shreveport. "That is really outstanding and people should be celebrating that."”

“All three vaccines appear to offer strong protection against the U.K. variant. In early analyses, both the Moderna and the Pfizer vaccines were found to be less protective against the South African variant, although neutralizing antibodies, which can bind to viruses and block them from getting into cells, remained above protective levels for both.

Johnson & Johnson conducted trials in South Africa, where the variant first identified there is widespread, and found that its vaccine was 64 percent effective at preventing moderate to severe disease. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was also found to be 66 percent effective against the variant that was first reported in Brazil. In trials, the vaccine prevented 100 percent of hospitalizations and deaths related to Covid-19.”

“"Protection from infection and disease are two different things," Kamil said. In other words, a vaccinated person could still become infected with the coronavirus, but that infection likely wouldn’t lead to illness. "The worst case scenario is you might get sick, but you likely wouldn’t have to go to the hospital."”

With the J&J vaccine the 2 doses graph is less important. Probably need to add a category called fully vaccinated vs. 2 doses.

US death still under 2K. Brazil unfortunately above 2K. Isolating Brazil is likely an outcome if this continues this way.

Brazil certainly a lot more of concern than many others such as Germany.

Strange Missouri unconfirmed -12K netting out the unassigned county – but significant added confirmation in known counties. NY leads confirmation and CA leads death

Large adds in individual counties in MO – LA leads death

LA still in the right direction

Covid19mathblog.com

As noted yesterday our opening tracking would show a big increase in TX on 3/10 from 3/9 and this is what we are seeing. TX is equivalent to FL now.

Endemic likely – but some seasons will be much better than others – https://apnews.com/article/us-news-coronavirus-pandemic-98ae7fbfdc457425dae47efb38139db2

“The virus emerged in late 2019 and it’s difficult to predict how it will behave over the long term. But many experts believe it’s likely the disease will eventually ease from a crisis to a nuisance like the common cold.”

“It’s unlikely the virus will ever be completely stamped out, given the possibility that people might be able to get reinfected after they’ve already been sick or vaccinated.

The only virus that’s ever been eradicated from the human population is smallpox. That’s because people develop lasting immunity to that virus after getting sick or vaccinated.”

Life is full of risk – vaccine is not 100% safe but its not bad – https://www.foxnews.com/us/utah-mom-dies-four-days-after-taking-covid-vaccine

“According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), some 92 million COVID-19 vaccine doses were administered in the U.S. between December 14, 2020 and March 8, 2021. Of those 92 million, VAERS received 1,637 reports of death (0.0018%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine.”

Third wave in Germany? – https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-germanys-third-wave-has-begun/a-56833513

“Germany’s third wave is in full swing, the president of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases (RKI), told the UN Journalists Association in Geneva on Wednesday.

"We have clear signs: The third wave in Germany has already begun," said Lothar Wieler.

Thursday marks one year since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic.

Wieler’s comments came as the RKI recorded 14,356 new infections in the past 24 hours on Thursday, an increase of more than 2,400 over the prevous Thursday.”

Perhaps but its really early to call it:

Brazil leads at over 2K US under

NY leads confirmation and CA leads death

Providence Rhode Island leads confirmation LA leads the death

NY confirmation quite dispersed

LA back to normal?

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news:

Interestingly the Japanese are seeing higher allergic reactions to vaccine – https://www.thejakartapost.com/life/2021/03/10/japan-sees-high-rate-of-anaphylaxis-after-taking-pfizer-vaccine.html

“People in Japan who received Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine seem to have suffered anaphylaxis at a higher rate than in the United States and Europe, the minister in charge of vaccination efforts said Wednesday.

Taro Kono told a parliamentary committee that 17 cases of anaphylaxis, a severe and potentially fatal allergic reaction, have been reported among the 107,558 health care workers who had been inoculated as of Tuesday.

"It’s true, this seems to be more than in the United States and Europe," he said. The rate compares with five cases in every one million doses administered in the United States and 20 cases per million in Britain, though Japan is further behind in its vaccine rollout and it could change as more people receive shots. ”

Russia looking to more manufacturers of their vaccine – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-10/swiss-firm-could-make-russian-vaccine-as-early-as-third-quarter

“The first European company to reach a deal to produce Russia’s Covid-19 vaccine said it could start manufacturing as early as the third quarter, and rejected charges it was part of a propaganda effort as “absurd.”

Antonio Francesco Di Naro, founder and president of Adienne Pharma & Biotech SA, said Wednesday that his company had been selected to make the Sputnik V vaccine following an approach from Russia.”

Most variants so far have been more contagious – looks like this one actually more fatal – https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/kent-covid-up-100-deadlier-5109024

“A study, by epidemiologists from the Universities of Exeter and Bristol, has shown that the SARS-CoV-2 variant, B.1.1.7, is associated with a significantly higher mortality rate amongst adults diagnosed in the community compared to previously circulating strains.

The study compared death rates among people infected with the new variant and those infected with other strains.

It showed that the new variant led to 227 deaths in a sample of 54906 patients – compared to 141 amongst the same number of closely matched patients who had the previous strains.”

Brazil numbers do seem quite out of control and this allows variates to be formed – it would be to the worlds benefits to limit these uncontrol spread – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9344201/Brazils-Covid-catastrophe-atomic-bomb-pandemic-drag-out.html

“Brazil’s P1 variant is now dominant there, has caused a second wave even worse than the hard-hit country’s first and has put the health care system on the brink

The variant is thought to be 1.4 to 2.2 times more transmissible than older variants and has reinfected people who already had COVID-19 in Brazil

Control measures and vaccinations are shoddy in Brazil, where 2,000 people died of COVID-19 yesterday

Experts compare the out-of-control situation in Brazil to ‘an atomic bomb’

As long Brazil or other countries have uncontrolled spread, variants could keep emerging and triggering new Covid waves around the world “

Brazil on top again US under 2K

NY largest confirmation. CA largest death

AK still leading in vaccine distribution on per capita. On the 48 interior states GA is the lowest on a per capita basis.

As of yesterday CA is still the most restrictive state with several other states opening up. TX should show up in the green soon.

Dispersion is growing in both death and confirmation

LA leading both categories. NY confirmation certainly growing perhaps opening up without some guidelines not the wisest choice.

Harris county fatality rates have recently picked up 3.3%

Covid19mathblog.com

Technical issues leading to delay of report.

Food for thought – this commentary expresses the concerns made in the beginning as China "lead" resulted in everyone else following the same path of quarantine – regardless of the society differences – https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1406508/coronavirus-pandemic-chronic-disease-health-care-comment

"WHO’s change in guidance to a full lockdown was all based in China’s success in containing the virus, essentially in just one city, where it originated; Wuhan. With hindsight that strategy seems all the more extraordinary when we compare the death toll of China with the staggering numbers in the UK and the colossal half a million in the US. As one prominent Chinese broadcast journalist, who now lives in London, told me, what China did was never going to work in the west. “It was a military style operation in China,” she said. “ Every single person was tagged and monitored, and all contacts of those testing positive for the virus tracked and traced. That is why it worked.” British values, cultural history and democratic system did not allow this to happen. Of course, proponents of the UK approach will cite the comparatively tiny mortality rates of countries such as New Zealand and Australia. But with such sparsely populated countries, a complete shut down of the borders and an effective trace and track system made it much easier to stop the virus in its tracks. In India, on the other hand, although in principle a lockdown was implemented, it didn’t get even close to the stringency of the UK.

Despite being the largest and most densely populated democratic countries in the world with over a billion people, most of whom live in abject poverty, the total death tole pales in comparison to western countries.

My relatives and friends in Delhi inform me that people are already out and about, eating in restaurants, shopping in the malls, going to the cinema.

In our attempt to protect the NHS and save lives, the life-saving has at best been marginal but the harms of lockdown are indisputable and in my view catastrophic.

The ONS estimates more than 200,000 collateral deaths. Fear-based messaging led to vulnerable people avoiding doctors for heart attacks and early cancer diagnosis and treatment. "

"But we mustn’t ignore the root causes of what led to this dreadful situation in the first place, the dire baseline health of the population.

Approximately 80 percent of UK adults have excess levels of body fat, putting them at risk of chronic disease and increased risk of dying from covid.

A recent analysis is JAMA suggested 63 percent of deaths in the United States were preventable if the population was healthier to begin with."

Another potential solution to Covid – via treatment similar to Tamiflu – https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/

“The primary efficacy objective was reduction in time to viral negativity measured by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis of nasopharyngeal swabs. Periodic samples were collected for virologic analysis. Of the 182 participants with an evaluable nasopharyngeal swab, 42% (78/182) showed detectable levels of cultured virus at baseline. The full study results remain blinded and will be shared at a later date, as they become available. Other Phase 2 and Phase 2/3 studies are underway.

Today’s presentation described findings from the secondary endpoint of reduction in time (days) to negativity of infectious virus isolation in nasopharyngeal swabs from participants with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, as determined by isolation in Vero cell line culture. At day 5, there was a reduction (nominal p=0.001, not controlled for multiplicity) in positive viral culture in subjects who received molnupiravir (all doses) compared to placebo: 0% (0/47) for molnupiravir and 24% (6/25) for placebo.”

“Molnupiravir (EIDD-2801/MK-4482) is an investigational, orally-bioavailable form of a potent ribonucleoside analog that inhibits the replication of multiple RNA viruses including SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. Molnupiravir has been shown to be active in several models of SARS-CoV-2, including for prophylaxis, treatment, and prevention of transmission, as well as SARS-CoV-1 and MERS. EIDD-2801 was invented at Drug Innovations at Emory (DRIVE), LLC, a not-for-profit biotechnology company wholly owned by Emory University.”

First time US is not leading deaths and under 1K – Brazil leader. Way to go Biden?

Montana leads confirmation! TX leads death

TX death centered around Dallas

LA dropping out of the lead is an amazing accomplishment – but very strange reporting day

LA death back to trending down

World view

Covid19mathblog.com

A whole year later and a bunch of promises for testing – finally an OTC test approved by FDA – FDA authorizes over-the-counter coronavirus test – Axios

“The Food and Drug Administration on Friday issued an emergency use authorization for a COVID-19 test for home and other over-the-counter uses.

Why it matters: The single-use test, developed by Cue Health, may increase the availability of reliable coronavirus tests in the United States, potentially allowing Americans to avoid trips to the doctor’s office or a testing site.

By the numbers: The FDA said the test correctly identified 96% of positive coronavirus samples from individuals who had symptoms and correctly identified 100% of positive samples from asymptomatic people.”

Another indication perhaps our lifestyle contributing as Statins are shown to be 50% likely to die – a cholesterol free lifestyle is vegan – Statin users 50% less likely to die from severe COVID-19 (medicalnewstoday.com)

“A new study suggests that taking statins may help reduce the risk of dying from severe COVID-19.

In the study, people who regularly took statins before they developed COVID-19 were roughly 50% less likely to die in the hospital than people who did not.

Statin usage also seemed to reduce patient levels of C-reactive protein, a marker of inflammation.

If further studies support these findings, this could provide a cost-effective, widely-available, low-risk treatment option for COVID-19.”

Ethical quandary – to vaccine prisoners before others? – Tennessee panel deemed vaccinating inmates a ‘PR nightmare’ (apnews.com)

“A Tennessee advisory panel tasked with deciding in what order residents should receive the COVID-19 vaccine acknowledged that prison inmates in the state were high-risk, but concluded that prioritizing them for inoculation could be a “public relations nightmare.””

Over 2K in the US followed by Brazil

NY leads confirmation. Ohio leads death with 751! More revisions?

Significant dispersion across Ohio so likely another reclassification. The timeline of the dataset is becoming meaningless.

LA county is leading all counties.

LA is still falling back down into the pack