Covid19mathblog.com

This type of reporting will boost vaccine administration – unfortunately this is anecdotal – Coronavirus vaccines may reduce or eliminate symptoms of long covid | New Scientist

“Some people with long covid, in which individuals have long-lasting symptoms after a covid-19 infection, are reporting improvements in their health after being vaccinated against the coronavirus. The reports are based on anecdotes and a small, informal survey rather than a scientific study, but the trend might offer clues to what causes the persistent symptoms.”

Countering the CDC conclusion Japan super computer says more than 1 mask is a marginal improvement (still improvement) – https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2AX0BA?

“Japanese supercomputer simulations showed that wearing two masks gave limited benefit in blocking viral spread compared with one properly fitted mask.

The findings in part contradict recent recommendations from the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that two masks were better than one at reducing a person’s exposure to the coronavirus.”

I think China visits may be going down. Perhaps another way to close borders without closing borders – https://nypost.com/2021/03/03/china-makes-covid-19-anal-swabs-mandatory-for-foreigners/amp/?

“China has made anal COVID-19 swabs mandatory for all foreign travelers arriving in the country, a report said Wednesday.

The government has claimed that such tests provide a higher degree of accuracy than other screening methods for the virus, the Times UK reported.

As part of the new travel requirement, there will be testing hubs in Beijing and Shanghai airports, the outlet reported.

Li Tongzeng, a respiratory disease medic, said the anal swabs are better because virus traces stay in fecal samples longer than they do in the nose or throat, state media reported.

The move comes after Japan asked China to stop performing the exams on its citizens when they enter the country because the swabs cause mental anguish.”

US under 2K Brazil has been 2nd place for awhile

TX leads confirmation CA leads death

LA leads all county

Middle of the country is just empty

LA back in line with all counties in confirmation.

Covid19mathblog.com

It has begun – covid vaccine ID cards – I wonder so if you have officially gotten Covid that wont count need to get vaccine? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9322633/amp/New-Yorkers-flash-COVID-19-passport-enter-sports-arenas-theaters.html

“New Yorkers will have to flash a ‘COVID-19 passport’ showing negative test result or a vaccination if they want to see a movie or other events under pilot program

Gov Andrew Cuomo announced initiative, dubbed ‘Excelsior Pass,’ on Tuesday

Pass, developed in partnership with IBM, is said to be ‘proven, secure technology [that] will confirm an individual’s vaccination or recent negative COVID test’

Initial phase of pilot testing started February 27 with Brooklyn Nets game at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn and continued Tuesday at Madison Square Garden “

“’Similar to a mobile airline boarding pass, individuals will be able to either print out their pass or store it on their smartphones using the Excelsior Pass’s "Wallet App",’ a statement from the governor’s office reads.

Each pass will have a ‘secure QR code, which venues will scan using a companion app to confirm someone’s COVID health status’.”

S. African strain expanding and impacting as shown in Israel – https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-fears-south-african-covid-strain-spreading-beyond-control-1.9587065

“Israeli efforts to stop the spread of the South African variant of the coronavirus, which included the shut down of Ben-Gurion International Airport last month, have brought little results, data shows. Over 450 cases of the infection have been diagnosed so far in Israel, and health professionals estimate that dozens more are being infected each day. ”

“The Pfizer vaccine has been found to be effective against the British variant, but experts fear that other variants may be less susceptible to these vaccines.The South African variant is the only one so far to have been linked to a lower effectiveness of the jab; it has also caused reinfection among those recovering from COVID-19. It is worrying experts because of the mutations in its protein wrapper, which the virus uses to bind to cells. These changes make it the most distant variant from the original coronavirus – the one that the vaccines were developed for.”

Interesting positive spin on the S. African strain – if you get infected and recover from this one you will have a better immunity – https://www.firstpost.com/health/south-african-covid-19-variant-may-provide-better-immunity-against-other-mutations-finds-small-study-9375031.html

“A new preliminary study — based on a small sample — has suggested that people previously infected by the COVID-19 variant identified in South Africa may have better immunity against other coronavirus mutations, experts said Wednesday. The findings, from a yet to be peer-reviewed research by the team of South African scientists who discovered the 501Y.V2 variant, raise hopes that vaccines modelled on the strain could protect against future mutations. Only four percent of a sample of 55 patients who had 501Y.V2 failed to neutralise infection from the original coronavirus variant, according to data presented by a cohort of scientists under the Network Genomic Surveillance South Africa (NGS-SA).”

Interesting to see the conflict in AstraZeneca vaccine for the elderly >65 – https://www.firstpost.com/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-is-80-4-pfizer-vaccine-is-71-4-effective-in-elderly-people-study-9374831.html

“The AstraZeneca/Oxford COVID-19 vaccine appears to be more than 80 percent effective at preventing severe illness among elderly, at-risk individuals after a single dose, according to preliminary research published Wednesday. The results, which have yet to be peer-reviewed, added to the growing body of evidence that the vaccine — which several countries have advised against giving to over-65s — is both safe and effective in older people. Researchers at the University of Bristol analysed patients aged over 80 admitted to hospital in Britain with respiratory illness. All the patients were tested for COVID-19 , and the positive and negative cases were separated into two data groups.”

Last note – points to the US food supply and lacking health trends – https://elemental.medium.com/how-the-western-diet-is-wreaking-havoc-on-our-guts-4ecbc54a9713

“Gut health in America is poor and seems to be getting worse. According to a 2020 study led by researchers at the University of North Carolina, roughly one in four U.S. adults regularly experiences diarrhea, constipation, stomach pain, or other symptoms of gastrointestinal dysfunction.

Meanwhile, about the same proportion of Americans — one in four— has gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), a condition in which the stomach’s contents migrate up into the throat and food pipe, causing heartburn and other symptoms. GERD used to be relatively rare among people under the age of 50, but a 2018 report from Case Western Reserve University in Ohio found that between 2006 and 2016, the prevalence of GERD rose steadily among younger adults — especially those in their thirties.”

“A Western diet packed with heavily processed foods tends to contain a lot of simple sugars. It also lacks fiber and complex carbohydrates, which are the types of foods that support healthy bacteria populations, Madsen explains. The Western diet is likewise implicated in the development of GERD and irritable bowel syndrome.

While a high-sugar, low-fiber diet seems to imperil the gut at any age, there’s evidence that eating a lot of sugary processed foods very early in life may shift the developing microbiome in ways that encourage inflammation and dysfunction. Unfortunately, these shifts may not be reversible later in life, even if a person ditches sugar and adopts a healthier diet.”

“Kaplan says that the overzealous use of antibiotics may also be a contributor. “We know that antibiotics affect the microbiome, particularly early in life,” he says. “Doctors are becoming more judicious, but there was a time when every time a kid got an ear infection, they were prescribed an antibiotic.”

He also mentions the so-called hygiene hypothesis, which has garnered significant attention and study. “The hypothesis is that in Western societies we live in a much more sterile environment,” Kaplan says. “So we’re not getting exposed to the vast number of microbes we used to, and this may not be good for us.” (Some recent work has found that the bacteria living in a person’s environment may support mental health as well as gut health.)”

““I don’t think there’s one trigger,” Limketkai adds. “All of these independently could help explain the rise in inflammation and IBD, but I think it’s likely a constellation of them.””

US over 2K

TX leads confirmation but VA leads death

Given VA leads death but doesn’t show up on map or county leaders likely just a data reset across the state. Almost every county had a death to report in VA yesterday.

Miami Dade leads confirmation with LA leading deaths

Even though LA leads death the numbers have dropped a lot – more in line with fatality rates normally seen.

Covid19mathblog.com

Super late but better than never? Why take forever for something so obvious? – https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/26/science/reopen-schools-safety-ventilation.html

Truth hurts sometimes – IF the article is true which would seem very plausible many don’t want the truth – https://nypost.com/2021/03/02/professor-quits-covid-19-research-amid-hostility-over-his-findings/

“Jonas Ludvigsson, a professor of clinical epidemiology at the Karolinska Institute, said he has lost sleep as a result of the “angry messages through social media and email” assailing his study and partly blaming him for Sweden’s contrarian COVID-19 strategy, the College Fix reported.

His research focused on children ages 1 to 16 during the first wave of the pandemic last spring, including those with “laboratory-verified or clinically verified COVID-19, including patients who were admitted for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children” because it’s “likely” related to the bug. Only 15 children went to the ICU — a rate of 0.77 per 100,000, according to the report. Four had “an underlying chronic coexisting condition” and none died.

As far as teachers, “fewer than” 30 ended up in the ICU during the same period — a rate of about 19 per 100,000.

Ludvigsson also noted that children weren’t wearing face masks, while the rest of Swedish citizens were simply “encouraged” to practice social distancing.”

I do agree with the sentiment of this article the J&J vaccine might be better just because of the 1 shot – based on our lifestyle in the US. I can imagine many forgetting or waiting too long for the second shot. Also the dataset is not apples to apples since the J&J results do have the S. African variant involved – who knows how Moderna and Pfizer performs in that environment https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22301014/covid-19-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson-coronavirus

“One big reason to be excited about the new Johnson & Johnson vaccine for Covid-19, which was authorized by the Food and Drug Administration over the weekend for emergency use in the US: Unlike the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines already in use, it requires only one shot for full protection.”

“For hospitalizations and death, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine reported 100 percent effectiveness after 28 days (all of the vaccines so far take weeks to build up the body’s defenses).”

But the bad news for J&J because it is an adenovirus it requires cells – which likely came from IF you go back enough in time to aborted fetuses in 1973 and 1985. Obviously they are not being produced from them now directly but from independent cells lines decades later. I am sure if we take this tact we can find many things coming from past sins – are we that woke (did I even use that word right)? https://www.kmov.com/news/st-louis-archdiocese-calls-j-j-vaccine-morally-compromised-urges-catholics-to-seek-alternatives/article_f92ada0c-7b87-11eb-9cc8-038be9889a0a.html

“The St. Louis Archdiocese released a statement Tuesday encouraging followers to "examine the moral and ethical concerns" around the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, saying that Catholics should avoid that particular dose if alternatives are available.”

Perhaps another reason to get the vaccine not because you wont die but who would want something that can permanently harm you. Vaccine studies should focus on preventing long covid and muscle damages etc… – https://newatlas.com/medical/covid19-heart-damage-virus-infects-muscle-cells/

“A robust new study has demonstrated how SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, can infect and directly damage heart tissue. The research suggests previously reported cases of heart damage in COVID-19 patients are not due to inflammation in response to an infection but the virus itself interfering with heart muscles.”

And of course the big news in TX – Gov Abbott has declared covid over in TX and no mask needed. Hmmm we all need to weigh are own risk/reward. For me I think I will still mask up when I feel I should – I don’t do it running outside. https://apnews.com/article/texas-lifts-covid-19-mask-mandate-ed7cd1b065a1afd71175f255fb5148aa

“Texas is lifting its mask mandate, Gov. Greg Abbott said Tuesday, making it the largest state to no longer require one of the most effective ways to slow the spread of the coronavirus.”

TX not at zero for sure – last 4 weeks Harris County tops in confirmation – but not bad when reviewed on pa per capita basis

State total the confirmations 7 day moving average still below event the summer peak levels – but deaths are higher. And unfortunately the test data has fallen dramatically so perhaps that’s driving confirmation down? Confirmation to test is dramatically higher as people are more discriminating with when they take test – only when show symptoms?

Harris County view similar to state view

US death still under 2K

TX leads confirmation – CA leads death

Harris county leads confirmation – LA leads death

Not much dispersion in the middle of the country – focused on shore line states

Vaccine administered in the US hitting another peak

Covid19mathblog.com

Bad news first – less than a year those who got sick from covid are getting infected again from a new variant – another sign of endemic ☹ – https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html

“Scientists have also had their eye on a third concerning variant that arose in Brazil, called P.1. Research had been slower on P.1 since its discovery in late December, leaving scientists unsure of just how much to worry about it.”

“Now three studies offer a sobering history of P.1’s meteoric rise in the Amazonian city of Manaus. It most likely arose there in November and then fueled a record-breaking spike of coronavirus cases. It came to dominate the city partly because of an increased contagiousness, the research found. But it also gained the ability to infect some people who had immunity from previous bouts of Covid-19. And laboratory experiments suggest that P.1 could weaken the protective effect of a Chinese vaccine now in use in Brazil.”

“P.1 is now spreading across the rest of Brazil and has been found in 24 other countries. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded six cases in five states: Alaska, Florida, Maryland, Minnesota and Oklahoma.”

Besides endemic – another reason to get healthy is the vaccines are not effective for obese patients – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.24.21251664v1.full.pdf

“Findings: 248 HWCs were analysed, 158 women (63.7%) and 90 men (36.3%). After the second dose of

BNT162b2 vaccine, 99.5% of participants developed a humoral immune response.

The geometric mean concentration of antibodies among the vaccinated subjects after booster dose (285.9

AU/mL 95% CI: 249.5-327.7); was higher than that of human convalescent sera (39.4 AU/mL, 95% CI:

33.1-46.9), with p<0.0001. The antibody titre was found to be higher in young and female participants. A

strong correlation of BMI classes with antibody titres was noticed: humoral response was more efficient in

the group with under- and normal-weight vs the group with pre- and obesity participants (p<0.0001 at T1).

Interpretation: These findings imply that females, lean and young people have an increased capacity to

mount humoral immune responses compared to males, overweight and the older population. Although

further studies are needed, this data may have important implications for the development of vaccination

strategies for COVID-19, particularly in obese people”

Logical but also likely highly abusive to create a digital pass for those with vaccine and without – what about creating pass for those very healthy and those not? – https://www.timesofisrael.com/following-israel-eu-to-propose-vaccine-green-pass/

“The European Commission will propose rules for an EU vaccine “green pass” this month, as the bloc prepares to ramp up its Covid-19 immunization drive, commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said Monday.

“We’ll present this month a legislative proposal for a Digital Green Pass,” she tweeted, explaining it would aim to provide proof both of vaccination and of Covid test results. The pass would allow people to gradually “move safely in the European Union or abroad — for work or tourism,” she said.”

If getting covid doesn’t help BUT only vaccine works then US ½ as effective as getting this covid in control. US deaths below 2K

TX leading confirmation – likely Ice storm limited ventilation. CA still leading deaths

New first to see Williamson County TX lead confirmation – perhaps true up with data due to ice storm. Nueces TX also leads death from covid – LA is actually 6th place

Confirmations are certainly being dispersed through the country – perhap variants are making their way through the US

LA deaths still need to come down with confirmation else will continue to show very high fatality rates.

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news – Israel given its most immunization per capita in the world is showing very promising data. https://www.timesofisrael.com/from-israel-with-hope-best-data-yet-suggests-vaccines-will-empty-covid-wards/

“Of first 1.82 million immunized, only 0.07% became virus positive, 122 were hospitalized, 23 died. If everyone had shots, we’d only need a ‘few dozen’ virus beds, says top MD”

“While fatalities have not stopped completely among the inoculated, there were just 23 COVID deaths in that population. Almost all shots used in Israel so far have come from Pfizer.”

““It indicates that people who are not vaccinating are akin to people who drive without safety belts,” he declared.”

US just slightly over 1K death

NY leads confirmation and CA leads in death. Arkansas has a revision in deaths

Confirmation is shifting back to the summer states – Miami-Dade and Harris county leading the confirmation. Deaths are still LA

LA county deaths are still out there compared to their confirmations.

Covid19mathblog.com

Another endemic article – with a pro pharma stance – https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/27/what-if-covid-becomes-endemic.html

“In a February survey of more than 100 immunologists, infectious-disease researchers and virologists, almost 90% said that SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid, will become endemic.

That means that there’s a “constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area,” according to the Centers for Disease Control. Influenza, for example, is an endemic respiratory illness in the U.S., and there are four other endemic types of coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

Erica Ollmann Saphire, professor at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology, says she thinks Covid will be “a permanent part of the human existence.””

“As people continue to get vaccinated, “infection levels are going to come down dramatically over the course of the spring and summer,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday.”
“In a recent study that modeled what living with Covid could be like based on other coronaviruses, researchers wrote: ”[O]nce the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, SARS-CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold.””

“It’s possible that annual single-dose coronavirus booster shots will become the norm, just like you get an annual flu shot. If the virus mutates, vaccines will need to be updated to handle variants.”

$$$$ for the pharma!

Alternative message is to say lets get healthy as a society – sitting the new smoking – https://www.fitandwell.com/news/this-is-how-much-you-have-to-exercise-each-week-to-undo-the-damage-of-sitting

“A study from the British Medical Journal sought to try and answer this question. Using The World Health Organisation’s guidelines on exercise, which states "the health harms associated with prolonged sitting can be offset by exceeding weekly recommended physical activity levels", researchers looked at more than 44,000 people wearing activity trackers from four countries to try and identify how much movement is required to undo the damage of sitting. They found "30 to 40 daily minutes of moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity substantially weakens" the heightened risk of death associated with it, bringing it down to levels associated with very low amounts of sedentary time. This includes regular physical activity, not just structured exercise.”

US back under 2K – but its Sunday

NY leads confirmation – and for a first VA leads death at 185!

NY opening without any guidelines likely didn’t modify any ventilation systems

LA county leads all county. Even though VA leads death it was all dispersed through state so likely another revision to data method.

LA deaths are suspicious now given fatality rate of the latest deaths are showing 6% fatality rate.

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine News

Astrazeneca has some advantages over the others based on recent analysis https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/a-vaccine-without-fda-approval-could-be-our-strongest-weapon-against-covid-19-variants-scientists-say/67-c76859cb-c487-4696-b6bb-b358c5685c94

“The epidemiologist says scientists are eyeing a vaccine that has yet to get FDA approval. Oxford and AstraZeneca’s vaccine was first approved in the U.K., since then the World Health Organization, and Canada have both authorized the use of the vaccine as well.”

“New data from London shows it’s 70 percent effective and was able to fight the U.K. variant, drastically lowering hospitalizations.

"The vaccine reduced hospitalizations by 94 percent, which is actually higher than Pfizer. So Pfizer is really well known to have a very high efficacy and work really well against coronavirus, but against this variant, AstraZeneca’s vaccine actually beats it," Roberts said.”

“Scientists think it’s key in fighting variants because it’s so easily changeable and can be fast-tracked.

"It’s true. AstraZeneca is ideally placed for this. The reason being is because of their tech. The piece of coronavirus that they put into the other virus, they can change it at will," Roberts said.

Once they find what’s missing in a variant, scientists put that piece in the vaccine. The body will make antibodies to block the mutation. "You could do this with the mRNA vaccines, but the difference is that AstraZeneca has their own manufacturing production. They can put it into manufacturing immediately because it’s their own facility. They can get it out right away," Roberts said.

The FDA could review and approve the AstraZeneca vaccine in a few weeks. While we wait, the makers of Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson, with approval from the FDA, are updating their vaccines to fight new variants.”

As noted J&J has FDA panel greenlight – https://time.com/5942737/johnson-and-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-fda-review/

“The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) vaccine advisory committee earlier today (Feb. 26) voted unanimously to recommend Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use authorization. While the FDA isn’t obligated to follow the committee’s advice, it generally does.”

“Unlike the two previous vaccines, J&J’s is a single shot, and can be shipped and stored under refrigerated, not frozen conditions, as the other two require.”

“In Janssen’s primary vaccine study, involving nearly 44,000 people, a single dose was found to be 66% effective in protecting people from moderate to severe COVID-19 disease. It was slightly less effective in protecting against new variants of the virus—against one that was first identified in South Africa, it was around 57%. Still, that protection met the threshold of 50% efficacy set by the FDA for granting emergency use authorization.”

Don’t take medicine ahead of your shot – anything which could impact your immune system is not wise which would include alcohol. – https://bestlifeonline.com/news-fauci-medication-vaccine/

“In mid-February, the CDC updated its vaccine guidance to warn patients not to take ibuprofen (Motrin and Advil), acetaminophen (Tylenol), aspirin, or antihistamines before their shots. "It is not recommended you take these medicines before vaccination for the purpose of trying to prevent side effects, because it is not known how these medications may impact how well the vaccine works," the CDC’s website reads, echoing Fauci’s comments on the lack of data.”

“taking Advil or Tylenol pre-shot is because, as the experts at the University of California, Irvine explain, taking these medications "before receiving a vaccine may reduce its ability to work and can blunt your immune response to the vaccine." And for more COVID news delivered right to your inbox, sign up for our daily newsletter.”

Better late than never news….so sad – https://bgr.com/2021/02/26/covid-schools-safety-ventilation-gyms-cdc-warning/?

“Experts warn that poor ventilation in schools could lead to additional coronavirus outbreaks once schools reopen.

The CDC, meanwhile, is urging gyms to improve their ventilation systems after dozens of gym-goers came down with COVID-19 after group classes.”

WHAT REALLY SUCKS THEY HAVE NO BASELINE/GUIDELINES. Okay so I will propose guidelines of practical sense. You can get a CO2 sensor on amazon under $100. Take a sensor reading of your ambient air outside. Typical outside measurement should be around 400-600ppm. Whatever that ambient is double it. IF your indoor reading is double than you know the circulation in the room to the ambient air is constraining. Obviously ideally it would equal ambient for 100% ventilation but really that is impractical for most. If you are healthy you should be able to some level of covid. For HVAC guidelines pre Covid their targets had been 1000-2000ppm to consider decent air exchange. May the odds be in your favor!

US back on track with increasing vaccine dosage

Worldwide we Israel at nearly 40% fully vaccinated. US is second ~7% then followed by Serbia 6%? Next major is Denmark and Sweden around 2%

Around 2K deaths for US. Brazil over 1K

TX leading confirmation CA leading deaths

TX confirmation has a decent dispersion of confirmation – but Harris county reported 3227

LA no longer leads confirmation with Harris County on top – perhaps the storm did not help the situation. LA deaths have spiked recently.

LA deaths spikes quite alarming. Harris county confirmation looks like a reporting issue as the 7 day moving avg doesn’t show a large spike yet.

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news

Pfizer confirms vaccine effective 94% in real life study – but more interesting is the fact India has not approved the vaccine – Pfizer-BioNtech Vaccine is Indeed 94% Effective in Preventing COVID-19, Finds First Real-World Study | The Weather Channel – Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

“The Pfizer-BioNtech COVID-19 vaccine has been pronounced to be 94% effective against the deadly SARS-CoV-2 virus, the first peer-reviewed real-world research has confirmed. This is the first effective demonstration of the coronavirus vaccine shots in the real world, and these results could play a major role in helping humanity emerge from the pandemic.”

“The single-dose shot generated 57% protection against symptomatic infections after two weeks. Moreover, the vaccine effectiveness in preventing death was recorded at 72% after the first dose, while the chances of hospitalisation came down to 74%.”

“The study was entirely conducted on Israel’s population, with Israel having inoculated over nine million of its citizens since the rollout of its vaccination drive on December 19, 2021. In doing so, the country has successfully carried out one of the fastest vaccination drives in the world over the last two months.

The results were close to the ones obtained in clinical trials last year, where two doses were found to be 95% effective. Further, the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine was also found capable of generating protection against the UK variant of SAR-CoV-2.

In spite of its high efficacy, the emergency use approval of the Pfizer vaccine was declined in India. The mRNA-based vaccine was rejected due to the chances and concerns over certain Serious Adverse Events (SAEs), and less information on additional safety information and immunogenicity data in the local population.”

Even though highly effective – Pfizer explores a 3rd shot! – they get paid per shot – Pfizer is testing whether third shot will help tackle COVID-19 variants – CNET

“Pfizer has announced it’s trialing a third COVID-19 shot to be administered six to 12 months after a patient’s two-dose regimen. The trial will examine whether a booster shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine would tackle any new strains that emerge, the two companies said Thursday.

The study will use participants from its Phase 1 trial in the US "in order to be prepared for any potential future strain changes."”

Fauci says vaccinated people can socialize! Fauci says ‘serious talks’ happening so that people vaccinated for COVID-19 can socialize together | Daily Mail Online

“Dr Anthony Fauci has revealed that there have been ‘very serious discussions’ between the White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about allowing people who have received their full course of COVID-19 vaccinations to socialize together.

Fauci, Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, said that ‘common sense’ showed that the risk was ‘extremely low,’ for two people who are both fully vaccinated to see one another in an interview with CNN.

But the nation’s top infectious disease expert still refuses to dine indoors himself, despite being fully vaccinated.”

I still cant get over why not figure out metrics that make indoor similar to outdoor via CO2 readings? Why is this not pushed and made the agenda so indoor facility can pay to get them to the level of acceptable outdoor ventilation.

“New York reopened indoor dining in phases, with New York City reopening restaurants at 25 percent capacity in mid-February. Friday, that capacity goes up to 35 percent.

New York is currently seeing the second highest number of cases per capita each day of any state in the US, with higher numbers only in South Carolina.”

Opened but didn’t once again make indoor any different other than the hope the percentage game is improved with “less” infected and more already infected – still just make indoor = outdoor via ventilation solution and measure with CO2 readers which are VERY cheap and found on amazon.

Tagging people based on vaccination – it is coming – Vaccination ‘passports’ may open society, but inequity looms (apnews.com)

“There is new pressure from the government to encourage vaccinations. Israeli lawmakers on Wednesday passed a law allowing the Health Ministry to disclose information on people who have yet to be vaccinated. Under the policy, names can be released to the ministries of education, labor, social affairs and social services, as well as local governments, “with the purpose of allowing these bodies to encourage people to get vaccinated.””

“As those countries begin vaccinations, wealthier nations are starting to talk about “green passport” logistics, security, privacy and policy.

The British government said it is studying the possibility of issuing some kind of “COVID status certification” that could be used by employers and organizers of large events as it prepares to ease lockdown restrictions this year. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the policy could cause problems.

“We can’t be discriminatory against people who, for whatever reason, can’t have the vaccine,” he said.”

I still think the message of being healthy is being covered up with vaccine. Covid deaths are tied to inflammation – guess what drives inflammation – diets with high fructose – guess what is in almost everything in the US – high corn fructose syrup – Study: Immune damage tied to diets high in fructose (ajc.com)

“A study published this week in the journal Nature Communications reveals that consuming a diet high in fructose leads to an inflamed immune system. That causes more reactive molecules which are tied to inflammation. This kind of swelling can lead to damaged cells and tissues and contribute to organs and body systems failing to work properly, thus causing disease.

Researchers wrote fructose is “the second most abundant dietary sugar found in humans.””

“The study’s findings have produced more understanding about how fructose can be tied to diabetes and obesity. It also adds to the evidence about the harmful impacts of eating high amounts of fructose.”

US death over 2K Only Brazil above 1K beyond US.

Covid19mathblog.com

Vaccine news:

Looks like Pfizer is the choice as other makers are making Pfizer – Competing pharma companies volunteer to make Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine | Fortune

“Sanofi’s work on a COVID-19 vaccine hit a speed bump last fall that delayed the drugmaker from having a product on the market in early 2021, so it has pivoted to help out in another way.

The company has agreed to help make the vaccine developed by rival Pfizer. Starting in June, it will use a Frankfurt production line to perform a crucial step in making 125 million doses. This comes less than a month after Novartis agreed to use its manufacturing facilities to help make Pfizer’s vaccine.”

Looks like plenty of vaccines for the US – Pfizer, Moderna, J&J pledge 240 million total Covid-19 vaccine doses by the end of March – CNN

“Pfizer and Moderna — the two companies with Covid-19 vaccines authorized for emergency use in the United States — have pledged to make a combined total of 220 million doses available for shipment by the end of March. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson, which could secure emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine from the US Food and Drug Administration later this week, has pledged to make 20 million doses available in the same time frame.”

Israel on a diplomatic voyage with pledge to give out 100K vaccine – but does require something in return – Netanyahu said set to give nearly 100,000 vaccine doses to 15+ countries | The Times of Israel

“Israel is set to give tens of thousands of coronavirus vaccine doses to at least 15 countries in exchange for diplomatic backing, according to several reports.”

Looks like vaccines can reduce transmission – it would seem somewhat obvious if one cant get infected or largely infected the volume of virus to transmit would reduce – Covid-19 vaccines: the growing evidence they can reduce transmission – Vox

“Two recent studies show some pretty favorable results — one from the UK that found that two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine cut down by 86 percent someone’s chances of developing an infection that they could pass along, the other a study in Israel that found an 89.4 percent reduction (though it should be noted that the Israeli study has yet to be fully released). These findings are consistent with what we know about vaccines and transmission in general.”

Amazing stat -NOT A SINGLE CASE OF FLU in ENGLAND detected! – so all we had to do all this time is quarantine and put mask not socialize dose our selves up with sanitizer – I wonder how about car deaths they must be down to? Deaths can be reduced significantly – should that be the prime objective only – hard to die with zero if you just stay in your home? – Not a single case of flu detected by Public Health England this year as Covid restrictions suppress virus | The Independent

“Not a single case of influenza has been detected by public health officials in England for the past seven weeks, with infection rates at historic lows amid the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions.

The social restrictions brought in to curb transmission of coronavirus, combined with increased uptake of the flu vaccine, have both been credited with driving down infections.

Thousands of swab samples are processed and analysed by scientists at Public Health England (PHE) every week to survey the prevalence of different respiratory diseases in the population.

But of the 685,243 samples that have been reviewed at PHE’s laboratories since the first week of January, not a single one has tested positive for influenza.”

For the interesting incentive category:

Keep your kid on virtual learning and get paid IF you are a federal or postal employee – legislation to bail themselves out – so nice of them – Paid To Stay Home— Coronavirus Aid Bill Pays Federal Employees With Kids Out Of School Up To $21K (forbes.com)

“The U.S. House version of the “American Rescue Plan Act of 2021” – a $1.9 trillion emergency aid package to help America recover from the coronavirus pandemic has an extra perk for federal workers: Enhanced paid time off if your child is enrolled in a school that isn’t back to full-time, in-classroom instruction.

Critics call it a personal bailout for bureaucrats. It is funded through a new $570 million family leave account exclusively for federal workers.”

If you have high BMI you can get in the front of the line in several states for the vaccine shot. It does make sense to reduce the death count from covid – but at the same time its not the greatest incentive to be healthy either – Check to see if your BMI is in the ‘obese’ range, because you may be able to get an early COVID-19 vaccine (msn.com)

“In 15 states, obesity is currently one of those qualifying conditions.

That’s because having a body mass index (BMI) above 30, the cut-off line for obesity, is considered to be a risk factor for severe coronavirus complications, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Unlike other chronic conditions such as diabetes or cancer, obesity comes with a social stigma which can prompt poorer care, even from healthcare providers, according to Dr. W. Scott Butsch, director of obesity medicine at the Cleveland Clinic. The stigma can also cause people to delay medical treatment.

In some cases, people with obesity might not even realize they can get an early vaccine. They may be aware their weight is a health risk, but don’t know their exact BMI.”

Hitting some bumps in the road in vaccinations in the US – slowed down

Above 3K deaths for US – now almost 15% per capita has gotten or has had the vaccine assuming no double dip.

CA leads death by a long shot – TX leads confirmation

TX confirmation dispersed through the state. CA deaths is mainly LA

LA county leads both categories again

Large spike in deaths in LA pushes near term fatality rate north of 5% – this is suspicious since most data would point to around 2%

Covid19mathblog.com

All that cleaning and bleach buying all for nothing? We noted this early on – Catching COVID from surfaces is very unlikely. So perhaps we can ease up on the disinfecting (theconversation.com)

“There’s little evidence that surface transmission is a common way in which the coronavirus is spread. The main way it’s spread is by the air, either by larger droplets via close contact, or by smaller droplets called aerosols. As a side note, the relative role these two routes play in transmission is probably a much more interesting and important question to clarify from a public health perspective.”

“This isn’t to say surface transmission isn’t possible and that it doesn’t pose a risk in certain situations, or that we should disregard it completely. But, we should acknowledge the threat surface transmission poses is relatively small.

We can therefore mitigate this relatively small risk by continuing to focus on hand hygiene and ensuring cleaning protocols are more in keeping with the risk of surface transmission.

In doing this, we can potentially save millions of dollars being spent on obsessive cleaning practices. These are probably providing little or no benefit and being done solely because they’re easy to do and provide the reassurance of doing something, thereby relieving some of our anxieties.”

Under 2K now

Leading is NY for confirmation. CA leading deaths

First time in a long time LA is no longer leading any categories

Confirmation is dispersed but at lower levels so the map is showing more counties

LA almost back with the pack

Peak has passed for the world