Another focus similar to the TB shot – once again its all about our immune system. You have to work it just like a muscle – live in an ultraclean life you will never have a strong immune system to tackle the big problems – workout with the smaller weights to handle a big weight – https://news.stlpublicradio.org/health-science-environment/2020-09-19/could-a-common-vaccine-prevent-covid-19-washington-university-leads-study-to-find-out

“Doctors at Washington University are investigating whether the commonly used measles, mumps and rubella vaccine could protect people against getting sick with the coronavirus.

The large international study is based on the concept of trained immunity — the idea that live vaccines can turbocharge the immune system. “Of course it protects people from measles mumps and rubella, but activating the immune system with this type of vaccine could stimulate protection from other viruses as well,” said Dr. Mary Politi, a professor at Washington University and one of the researchers in the study. “The structural similarities might mean (that) when the body produces this response with antibodies with MMR, they could recognize the virus that causes COVID-19.”

The MMR vaccine could also trigger a more general immune response that could protect against multiple viruses, including the coronavirus, she said.”

“Unlike the common flu shot, the MMR vaccine is what is called a “live” or “attenuated” vaccine. That means it contains a weakened form of the virus it protects against.

That’s key to its potential success, said Dr. Michael Avidan, another Wash U professor and principal investigator in the study.”

““Trained immunity” only lasts for a short time, Avidan said. That’s why those who have received the MMR vaccine in the past may not be protected from COVID-19.

There’s also evidence live immunizations could protect against other viruses, Politi said. Earlier this year, close to 1,000 Marines, who receive MMR vaccinations when they join the military, were exposed to the coronavirus on a ship. Though many became sick, only one needed to be hospitalized.

It also could be why children, who may have received immunizations more recently, may not get as sick with the coronavirus as adults, Politi said.

If the study proves the MMR vaccine is effective, it could help protect people until a coronavirus vaccine or treatment is developed.

The vaccine has been proven safe, and there’s a huge supply of it worldwide, Avidan said.”

Adding to your shopping list of vitamin C, D, and Zinc, HEPA filter, thermodynamic air cleaner, mask- we now have a nose cleaner and mask with acteev. All these offer a very good risk reward – risk incorporates side effects and cost.

https://www.nozin.com/

This is driven by https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/commentary/story/2020-09-15/covid-19-coronavirus-nose

“Sanitizing the nose may sound strange, but it is a well-established, clinically proven hospital practice that kills germs in the nose and helps protect you and others from infection. I’ve dedicated my entire career to managing infection risks in health care settings and firmly believe that this simple, effective practice shouldn’t be restricted to hospitals. It is time sanitizing the nose becomes a part of everyone’s daily hygiene practice.

As the national infection prevention director for Kaiser Permanente, I helped implement nasal decolonization, the clinical term for sanitizing the nose, for high-risk patients based on the outcomes of peer-reviewed studies, which found this practice prevented infections and saved lives. For example, a 2020 study published in the American Journal of Infection Control reported that infection rates for total joint replacements decreased to zero when nasal decolonization was added to the existing surgical infection prevention bundle.”

“There’s a reason the nose is a primary reservoir for germs. It is a moist, hairy environment perfect for microorganism multiplication, creating a stew of potentially harmful pathogens. And they don’t stay in the nose, as we touch our noses 100 times a day on average, and then touch other surfaces and people. Sanitizing the nose interrupts the cycle of contamination between the hands and nose.”

“Before the pandemic, I commonly experienced respiratory infections after airline travel. I began to apply what I had learned in hospitals by sanitizing my nose prior to flying. That was five years ago, and I have not experienced a respiratory infection after a flight since then. While many of us are hunkered down, if you do find yourself headed to a crowded space — such as grocery stores, beaches or airports — consider sanitizing your nose beforehand. And as school campuses start opening in our state and throughout the country, sanitizing the nose should be a part of any discussion about measures to keep children, parents and teachers safe.”

“It is important to sanitize the nose the right way because not all nasal hygiene products kill germs. Neti pots and saline sprays can help decongest the nose — they do not kill germs. Organizations and individuals should only use products to sanitize the nose that are clinically proven to be safe and effective. To learn more about the science and products formulated to kill germs in the nose, visit sanitizeyournose.org.”

Also went ahead and purchased some nonwoven mask with Acteev – https://californiaplastics.one/shop#!/products/acteev-protect-face-masks-antimicrobial-and-antifungal-0x2c–kills-the-virus-reusable

India sporadic reporting puts it back on top at 1247 – still 10X less death than the US on a per capita

CA leading the US at 125 deaths

San Bernadino CA took the US county lead at 50

Things are not looking too good for Spain and France

Air travel study confirms transmission on airplane. Once again kind of an obvious point that at some point this would have occurred. As noted several times before traveling in the airplane itself is one of the safest place as they are required to blend at least 50% fresh air and they typically have HEPA filters. In this case we are looking at Vietnam Airlines – there are no description in the study of filter used and fresh air circulation – but given not a top tier airline I would surmise there is greater probability that they are not the strictest in changing filters and using the best available. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-3299_article

“To assess the role of in-flight transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we investigated a cluster of cases among passengers on a 10-hour commercial flight. Affected persons were passengers, crew, and their close contacts. We traced 217 passengers and crew to their final destinations and interviewed, tested, and quarantined them. Among the 16 persons in whom SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected, 12 (75%) were passengers seated in business class along with the only symptomatic person (attack rate 62%). Seating proximity was strongly associated with increased infection risk (risk ratio 7.3, 95% CI 1.2–46.2). We found no strong evidence supporting alternative transmission scenarios.”

“Flight VN54 departed London at 11:10 am local time on March 1, 2020, and arrived in Hanoi at 5:20 am local time on March 2; the nonstop flight lasted about 10 hours. A total of 16 crew members and 201 passengers were on board. The 274 seats on the airplane were divided into business class (28 seats), premium economy class (35 seats), and economy class (211 seats); there were 4 toilets for business and premium economy classes and 5 for economy. The business class was exclusively reserved and separated from the premium economy and economy classes by a service/toilet area (Figure 1). Of the 201 passengers, 21 occupied business (75% seats occupied), 35 premium economy (100%), and 145 economy (67%) seats (Figure 1). Two meals were served, and flight attendants worked in 2 teams, 1 for the business and premium economy sections and 1 for the economy section.”

“By March 10, all 16 (100%) of the flight crew and 168 (84%) of the passengers who remained in Vietnam had been traced; 33 (16%) passengers had already transited to other countries. We were able to quarantine, interview, and collect swab specimens for PCR testing from all passengers and crew members who remained in Vietnam. Passengers and crew had traveled on to 15 provinces in Vietnam, ranging from Lao Cai and Cao Bang in the north to Kien Giang in the south.

Through these efforts, we identified an additional 15 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases, 14 among passengers and 1 among crew members, resulting in a total of 16 confirmed flight-associated cases.”

“The most likely route of transmission during the flight is aerosol or droplet transmission from case 1, particularly for persons seated in business class (23). Contact with case 1 might also have occurred outside the airplane at the airport, in particular among business class passengers in the predeparture lounge area or during boarding. Although Vietnam Airlines keeps business class passengers separated from economy class passengers during most procedures before and during the flight, contact with the 2 economy class cases might have occurred after arrival during immigration or at baggage claim. We also note that 2 passengers, in the seats between the 2 cases in economy class, were lost to follow-up. Whether either of these passengers could represent a separate index case in economy class is unknown.

The role of fomites and on-board surfaces such as tray tables and surfaces in toilets remains unknown. For example, airline crew often use business class toilets while on board, which might explain the case among the crew serving in economy class, for whom no other potential source of infection could be established. Of note, the temporal sequence of symptom onset among cases in economy class and the crew member serving in economy class also allows for the possibility of a second in-flight transmission event, independent of the cluster in economy class”

“First, thermal imaging and self-declaration of symptoms have clear limitations, as demonstrated by case 1, who boarded the flight with symptoms and did not declare them before or after the flight. Second, long flights not only can lead to importation of COVID-19 cases but also can provide conditions for superspreader events. It has been hypothesized that a combination of environmental factors on airplanes (humidity, temperature, air flow) can prolong the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in flight cabins (27). No evidence indicated that the regular air conditioning and exchange system on flight VN54 were malfunctioning”

“The latest guidance from the international air travel industry classifies the in-flight transmission risk as very low (34) and recommends only the use of face masks without additional measures to increase physical distance on board, such as blocking the middle seats (7,35). Our findings challenge these recommendations. Transmission on flight VN54 was clustered in business class, where seats are already more widely spaced than in economy class, and infection spread much further than the existing 2-row (36) or 2 meters (37) rule recommended for COVID-19 prevention on airplanes and other public transport would have captured. Similar conclusions were reached for SARS-CoV superspreader events on a flight in 2003, in which a high risk for infection was observed for passengers seated farther than 3 rows from the index case (4). This finding also concurs with transmission patterns observed for influenza virus (38) and is generally in line with the mounting evidence that airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is a major yet underrecognized transmission route (39,40).”

“We conclude that the risk for on-board transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during long flights is real and has the potential to cause COVID-19 clusters of substantial size, even in business class–like settings with spacious seating arrangements well beyond the established distance used to define close contact on airplanes. As long as COVID-19 presents a global pandemic threat in the absence of a good point-of-care test, better on-board infection prevention measures and arrival screening procedures are needed to make flying safe.”

Their conclusions are very dire. However I think its people looking for a dramatic conclusion to get attention – if we look at the data to actually see what actionable item we can take away to make things better we can see there is potential and conclusions that there is something that makes air travel safer than the office or home gathering. I am certain if you put the restaurant study for 10 hours the spread would have been much more significant. At the same time if you relate it to another airline study which ACTUALLY wore N95 mask – once again prove the obvious that mask help – there we had asymptomatic carriers but hardly any spread. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-3353-f1

Why are not people investigating the differences in fresh air circulation of the various airplane to find the root solution to make areas safer – the HEPA filter used – fresh air circulation setting? Munich to Shanghai – no spread – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30314-5/fulltext

“Extensive contact tracing involved the international flights from Munich to Shanghai (patient 0 on Jan 22, 2020) and from Munich to Tenerife (patient 12 on Jan 28, 2020). As of May 2, no further cases have been identified among flight passengers or other (personal) contacts.”

Too easy to get caught up in getting clicks and attention using fear vs trying to find solutions to the problem seems to by pervasive.

Tcells we talked about this several times already – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8749589/Up-50-people-immune-cells-fight-coronavirus.html

“A study of donated blood in the US found that half of samples had immune T cells that reacted to SARS-CoV-2

Similarly high rates were found in smaller studies of blood from people in the UK, Singapore, Germany and the Netherlands

T cells developed to fight other coronaviruses might be ‘cross reactive’ with the new virus that causes COVID-19”

“COVID-19 is thought to be so deadly in part because it’s an entirely new virus to which humans have no natural immunity.

And while that is clearly the case for many people, British Medical Journal associate editor Dr Peter Dosh wrote on Thursday that the evidence is beginning to suggest that some people may possess some protection against the virus.”

“scientists are starting to look more carefully at T cells, which, like antibodies, are part of the adaptive immune system and learn to identify and combat specific pathogens.

“Although SARS-CoV-2 itself is new, it belongs a family of many related coronaviruses.

Scientists think that some people may have developed T cells for other coronaviruses that are ‘cross-reactive’ with SARS-CoV-2 because they are sufficiently similar.

If that’s the case, the world may be closer to herd immunity to the deadly infection than we think – but much research remains to be done before we can know if that is the case. “

My suspicion/hypothesis is the coronavirus being akin to the common cold then those who have gotten sick with colds often when young likely built up a good immune system. Those living in ultraclean environment e.g. hand sanitizer world (US and UK) likely did not get that opportunity and are essentially paying the price for that.

VERY concern about this current generation of kids who have been swamped with hand sanitizer use and massive cleaning – we could be doing a great disservice to them for the future. This is the Yin/Yang of nature – the Buddhist measure of suffering requirement – eliminate the common cold will only build up the suffering for later.

This is why cold water therapy and other likes work. You continually challenge your body and it meets the challenge. If you baby the body it will not be prepared for a real attack.

Parents taking pride of not having their child ever getting sick – well that’s really probably a big disservice to them in the future.

I think we are probably officially heading into the lull season for covid – US under 1K again. The weather in the US is looking like open Windows for most of the US now.

Florida leads the US at 139

Miami-Dade leads the US counties at 50

Fatality rate in Harris county now closer to 1% for the last week

I don’t like to look at aggregations too much but it is interesting to note confirmations changes worldwide have grown 3+X since April (70K to 260K per day) yet death has stayed steady and actually is down from April….worldwide death 7 day moving average 5K per day…April as high as 7K per day.

Yes its still 2020 – https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/health/michigan-eee-case-suspected-trnd/

“Not only are Michigan health officials dealing with the coronavirus, but they’re also trying to contain the spread of a rare mosquito-borne disease.

Authorities are urging people to stay indoors after dark and protect themselves from mosquito bites after a resident in Barry County was suspected of having Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE), a potentially deadly illness caused by the EEE virus.”

More indoors less ventilation more covid vs. more EEE?

Sputnik V results – https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/1-in-7-volunteers-for-sputnik-v-russia-s-covid-19-vaccine-report-side-effects-russian-minister/story-0skeCHrE1ys9gKroFbXiIP.html

“One in seven volunteers complained of side effects after being injected with Sputnik V, Russia’s experimental vaccine against the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), the country’s health minister has said.

Mikhail Murashko, the Russian health minister, said more than 300 out of the announced 40,000 volunteers have been vaccinated with Sputnik V so far, according to the state-run TASS news agency.”

““Approximately 14% have small complaints of weakness, muscle pain for 24 hours and an occasional increase in body temperature,” TASS quoted Murashko as saying on Wednesday, according to Moscow Times.

The minister said the symptoms after being injected with the anti-coronavirus vaccine “level off” by the next day. “The complications are described in the instructions and are predictable,” he said, according to TASS.”

“The Sputnik V has yet to complete large scale clinical trials but was approved by the Russian government last month, becoming the first Covid-19 vaccine to be cleared for human use anywhere in the world.”

“Sputnik V did not lead to side effects and triggered an adequate immune response in 76 volunteers according to phase 1/2 trial data published in The Lancet journal earlier this month. But the results have been disputed by some scientists, who have sought a review of the data, citing what they said were striking similarities between patients.”

“RDIF reiterated on Wednesday that the vaccine is safe. “The Sputnik V vaccine, which is based on well-studied human adenoviral vector platform with proven safety, is undergoing clinical trials for the Coronavirus pandemic. Deliveries could potentially begin in late 2020 subject to completion of successful trials and registration of the vaccine by regulatory authorities in India,” a statement said.”

More from India shows that the plasma treatment is not effective – https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/indian-study-shows-no-survival-benefit-of-plasma-in-covid-19-67931

“the use of convalescent plasma therapy is in vogue globally. It involves the infusion of plasma from patients who have recovered from COVID-19 and thus carry protective antibodies into patients who are currently infected with the coronavirus. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently granted emergency use authorization (EUA) for its use, although the absence of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), the gold standard of scientific research, has led to skepticism about its effectiveness among experts.”

“Recently conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the apex medical research body in India, it is the first RCT for plasma in COVID-19 patients to be completed in the world. The study included 464 hospitalized, moderately ill COVID-19 patients—they were on supplemental oxygen but not critically ill with organ damage—across 39 medical centers between April 22 and July 14. The trial had two arms: an intervention arm, in which patients received two doses of 200 ml of convalescent plasma, 24 hours apart, along with standard of care, and a control arm that received standard of care alone.

The results, posted as a preprint on September 8 with a revision posted two days later, signal that the use of convalescent plasma in COVID-19 patients did not forestall progression to severe disease or mortality.”

“Despite the lack of survival benefit shown in the ICMR study, some positives gleaned from the trial include improved symptoms and oxygenation and faster viral clearance in patients in the intervention arm compared with the control arm.”

India back reporting leading at 1132 – US and Brazil both under 900

FL leads US at 147

Miami-Dade FL leads all counties at 22 – surrounding counties also around 20’s. LA county at 21

Big 4 counties view – LA CA and Miami Dade FL cant seem to trend down in deaths unlike Harris TX and Maricopa AZ. Almost 11.5% confirmed per capita in LA. 10.6% in Maricopa AZ

It would seem Covid is becoming unavoidable whether its for real or the testing sensitivities are high – the fact is lockdowns have not resulted in elimination – perhaps flatten the curve but the area under the curve (integral) will likely be the same over time.

Glasses wearing – mask wearing – antisocials may be the only ones left on the planet without Covid – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaophthalmology/fullarticle/2770872

“Question What is the association between the daily wear of eyeglasses and susceptibility to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)?

Findings In this cohort of 276 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Suizhou, China, the proportion of daily wearers of eyeglasses was lower than that of the local population (5.8% vs 31.5%).

Meaning These findings suggest that daily wearers of eyeglasses may be less likely to be infected with COVID-19.”

“Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Suizhou, China, the proportion of inpatients with COVID-19 who wore glasses for extended daily periods (>8 h/d) was smaller than that in the general population, suggesting that daily wearers of eyeglasses may be less susceptible to COVID-19.”

Or could it mean most glasses wearing nearsighted people are people who stare at screens all day (me) therefore don’t socialize much therefore have less chance of getting covid…..people who wear glasses more or less social….those who wear contacts certainly put stuff in their eye – they should have seen if contact wearers had more chances therefore eliminating my first thought and putting the focus back on eye touching….hmmmm?

Israel three week national lockdown….https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-middle-east-54134869

“Israel is to impose a new national lockdown to contain the spread of coronavirus – with tough restrictions coming into effect on Jewish new year.

The country’s second lockdown begins on Friday and lasts at least three weeks.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the measures would "exact a heavy price on us all", but the country faced a surge with 4,000 new daily infections.

A minister has resigned to protest against the restrictions that overlap with important Jewish festivals.”

“Many nations are experiencing second surges of the virus. However most governments are now imposing smaller local lockdowns in affected areas, rather than blanket national ones.”

Note this is the second lockdown – as perhaps the first one did not work to its intended purpose – so perhaps not the best strategy?

Israel’s deaths are climbing. Both the 7 day confirmation and deaths are the highest it has been. Confirmation rates per capita (almost 2%) is extremely high relative to others but they are in a very dense area.

No country above 1K today…India disappeared again in reporting

FL leads the US in deaths at 152

Miami-Dade FL lead all US counties at 32 deaths

Big 4 county reporting – seeing an uptick in confirmations in Harris county – perhaps corresponds with school openngs? – but nonetheless deatsh are still trending down in the county.

PCR Test is still on the mind – as discussed previously PCR Test is not black and white and requires some “art” – https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/08/covid-8-31-20/

Interesting paper on PCR – concerned about false positives – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080911v3.full.pdf

“: Unlike previous epidemics, in addressing COVID-19 nearly all international

health organizations and national health ministries have treated a single positive result

from a PCR-based test as confirmation of infection, even in asymptomatic persons

without any history of exposure. This is based on a widespread belief that positive

results in these tests are highly reliable. However, data on PCR-based tests for similar

viruses show that PCR-based testing produces enough false positive results to make

positive results highly unreliable over a broad range of real-world scenarios.”

“The high specificities (usually 100%) reported in PCR-based tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection do

not represent the real-world use of these tests, where contamination and human error produce

significant rates of false positives.

Widespread misunderstanding of these false positive rates affects an array of clinical, case

management and health policy decisions. Similarly, health authorities’ guidance on interpreting

test results is often wrong”

“r, in practice, PCR-based testing produces a significant number of false positive results,

making positive results highly unreliable over a broad range of real-world scenarios.

Consequently, the frequent assertion that positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 are more reliable

than negative results is wrong most of the time, and the widespread and official reliance on a

single positive PCR result as a sufficient basis for diagnosis—which was not the rule in previous

epidemics—has been a mistake.”

“The accuracy of a diagnostic test is measured by sensitivity, which is the proportion of infected

individuals that test positive, and specificity, the proportion of uninfected individuals that test

negative. Although SARS-CoV-2 PCR assays are widely reported to have 100% specificity

(Supplemental Material-Version 3: Table S1), this refers only to the tests’ lack of reaction with

substances other than SARS-CoV-2 genetic material (analytical specificity), and not to the

potential for incorrect results in the real-world implementation of testing (clinical specificity)

where contamination or human error can generate false positives during sample collection,

transport and analysis.”

“In previous epidemics, health authorities voiced concerns that false positive results from PCRbased tests could harm both the individuals tested and the ability of government agencies to

assess the outbreak, and they adopted measures to limit the occurrence of false positives”

“testing should be limited to

persons with a higher probability of infection, or reliability should be improved by requiring the

confirmation of positive results with a second, independent test.”

“The reliability of positive results falls to near zero when test positivity approaches the FPR (False positive rate).

However, even with positivities up to around four times the FPR, over 20% of positive results

are likely to be false positives”

“Most false positives in PCR-based tests are probably due to contamination, derived from such

sources as positive samples analyzed by the laboratory, positive controls, contaminated

reagents, or infected workers. Massive amplification of nucleic acids makes PCR-based assays

highly sensitive, but also highly vulnerable to minute levels of contamination which can produce

false positives that are indistinguishable from true positives. False positives can also be

produced by sample mix-ups or data handling errors.2”

“Much attention has been paid to false negative rates in SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing

(Supplemental Material-Version 3: Table S2) and to FPRs in antibody testing,27 but we found

virtually no discussion in the scientific or medical literature of FPRs in SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing

(Supplemental Material-Version 3: Previous Reporting).”

“Like all tests, PCR-based assays are subject to error that includes both false negative and false

positive results. A successful testing program must understand the error rates and use tests

appropriately.”

Also very important to note are the authors.

“Andrew N. Cohen, Ph.D.1

*, Bruce Kessel, M.D.2

, Michael G. Milgroom, Ph.D.3

1

Center for Research on Aquatic Bioinvasions, Richmond CA, USA. acohen@bioinvasions.com

2

John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawai’i, Honolulu HI, USA.

bkessel@queens.org

3

School of Integrative Plant Science, Plant Pathology and Plant-Microbe Biology Section,

Cornell University, Ithaca NY, USA. mgm5”

Note 2 of them in plant/biology – interesting right? Why you ask – lets connect the dots – it would seem PCR is used quite often in biology for markers – back in June Dr Cohen was noted in this report on invasion of zebra mussels- https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/15/871186164/what-zebra-mussels-can-tell-us-about-errors-in-coronavirus-tests

“In 2007, the state of California hired him to fight back the invasion of non-native mussels, which had been wreaking havoc on ecosystems in the eastern United States.

"We began getting reports after that of these mussels showing up all across the western U.S.," he says.

Scientists were using a clever technique to find them. They’d take a water sample and then look for the tiniest traces of genetic material from these mussels. They used a test called PCR (short for polymerase chain reaction), which vastly amplifies genetic material to look for mussel DNA. This is the same technology used to diagnose COVID-19.”

“"I began to realize that many of these — if not all of these — were false positives, especially when they started being reported in waters that had chemistry that would not allow the mussels to reproduce and establish themselves," he says.

Cohen wanted to understand why these tests were going awry, so he could spread the word to the labs that were using them. "I eventually turned to the medical literature to look at assessments that had been done of medical diagnostic labs that used PCR-based testing in humans."

Cohen discovered that false positives were actually fairly common. The best labs reported few if any, but other labs reported up to 8% of their positive results were false positives. The average was around 2% false positive.”

“Dr. Bobbi Pritt, a clinical microbiologist who chairs the microbiology committee for the College of American Pathologists, says his numbers seem reasonable.

"There’s no 100% perfect test," says Pritt, who works at the Mayo Clinic.

The PCR tests, when done perfectly, do boast a very low false-positive rate. But they’re not always done perfectly.

Certified labs like hers use procedures to reduce the risk of false test results, since a false-positive test can lead to a medical misdiagnosis. But slip-ups are inevitable.

Most errors are caused by poor sample handling or other errors even before a sample gets to the lab, she says.

And PCR is so incredibly sensitive, contamination is a particular concern. Even the tiniest amount of stray material in a lab can spell trouble, Pritt says.”

“there’s a lot at stake for getting these tests right.

People can be sent to isolation for weeks with a positive test result. Hospitals risk running short-staffed if too many workers test positive. People who are diagnosed with COVID-19 in a hospital may not be allowed to return to nursing homes or other senior living situations.”

“If a PCR test has a 2% error rate in an area where only 1% of the people are actually infected, Cohen notes, most of the positive results will be false positives.

That’s the lesson from his attempt to track invasive mussels.

"Actually, nobody has ever found a quagga or zebra mussel" in the vast majority of western waters where PCR tests indicated mussels were present, he says. It turned out that in those water bodies, all the positive test results were false.”

So the false positive rates seem low but the math is very interesting as bolded in the above statement. We are talking about per capita confirmations in the low digits worldwide so an 8% error would definitely mean you are producing a lot more false positives for every positive in the region given region is really <8%.

As always follow the money if you are concerned – Someone needs to check out the money trail – who is getting paid for all these test – IF they showed no positives in a region would they test more? IF you show 1 positive think about how many people need to be tested now? Contact tracing blows up testing as positives accumulate regardless of true of false testing. We need to make sure labs are disincentivized to do more testing and/or are strictly tested and verified. I am thinking in other countries the testing/labs are state run whereas in the US we are largely private institutions with shareholder incentives and dividends to pay.

Another potential solution to covid19 – https://www.complex.com/life/2020/09/university-of-pittsburgh-scientists-say-theyve-discovered-molecule-that-blocks-covid

“Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh have isolated a biomolecule that they say neutralizes the virus that causes COVID-19 "completely and specifically."”

“Researchers state that Ab8 is “highly effective,” when used in mice and hamsters, in both preventing and treating SARS-CoV-2 infections. They say that it blocked the virus from entering the cells of mice, and that the rodents that were treated with it had significantly less of the virus when compared to mice that were not treated.”

A good reporting day – Death in US 422. India still not reporting.

CA leads the death 61

LA county beat out Hidalgo County TX by 1 death – 23

Interesting to see the UAE has tested over 80% of their population and ended up under 1% confirmed. Therefore IF you had a false positive rate >1% a lot the positives would be false.

Vaccine front seems to be progressing – particularly ignoring the Russian and Chinese solutions – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/13/coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-could-be-given-to-americans-before-end-of-year-ceo-says.html

“Pfizer coronavirus vaccine could be given to Americans before end of the year, CEO says”

“Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said the drugmaker should have key data from its late-stage trial for the Food and Drug Administration by the end of October.

If the FDA approves the vaccine, the company is prepared to distribute “hundreds of thousands of doses,” he said.

On Saturday, Pfizer submitted a proposal to the FDA to expand the late-stage trial to include up to 44,000 participants, a significant increase from its previous target of 30,000.”

“Bourla said Sunday that the company has already invested $1.5 billion for the development of the potential vaccine. He said if the vaccine failed to work it would be financially “painful” for the company.”

Sporadic nature of data India didn’t even report any deaths while being on top for the past few days. US death only 378 – this is why you look at the 7 day Moving average

TX leading the deaths with 73

Border county Hidalgo leads TX and also the US in deaths 28

Even though confirmations are around the peak again for several countries the deaths are no where near that range. Many things can contribute to this from as simple as the PCR test being too sensitive (false positives) as noted several reports back to more younger asymptomatic people being tested.

Where was this advice in the very beginning vs creating a problem so great so we had to develop a vaccine and other super expensive drugs for treatment? https://www.insider.com/fauci-takes-recommends-vitamin-d-and-c-supplements-immunity-boost-2020-9?amp

“The leading infectious-disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci recommends taking your vitamins now that school has started and flu season is nearing.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, specifically suggested taking vitamin D and C supplements and said he takes them himself in an Instagram Live interview with the actress Jennifer Garner on Thursday.

"If you’re deficient in vitamin D, that does have an impact on your susceptibility to infection. I would not mind recommending, and I do it myself, taking vitamin D supplements," he said. "The other vitamin that people take is vitamin C because it’s a good antioxidant, so if people want to take a gram or so of vitamin C, that would be fine."

There’s a large body of research supporting Fauci’s recommendations. Studies suggest vitamin D and C are your best bet for supplementing immune health”

Shame on people not to tell people what they do themselves – everything recommended here I have or would have done myself and my loved ones. Vitamin D was recommended on this report early in April https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/04/covid-4-19-20/

“I take Vitamin C, Zinc drops (every other day), B12, and Vitamin D drops – support of Vitamin D – https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/the-surprising-role-vitamin-d-plays-in-your-immune-health/ “

Perhaps not fake news but certainly convoluted news – https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/health/long-haul-covid-fatigue-breathing-wellness/index.html

“About three-quarters of those hospitalized for Covid-19 could become long haulers, according to a paper uploaded to the pre-print server medRxiv on August 14 without having yet been vetted by outside experts or accepted for publication.”

Lets not also note to get to the point of hospitalization MOST have more than 1 comorbidity.

“ Corey Coopersmith, a 36-year-old fitness consultant in Las Vegas, hasn’t been able to work since first getting sick in late February. He suffers a constant ebb and flow of symptoms, and yet visit after visit to medical specialists has turned out a series of "normal" lab tests.”

“A mixed martial arts fighter in his 20s, Coopersmith was in great shape when he contracted Covid-19 in February, boasting of a resting heart rate of 58 beats per minute.”

Out of all the cases noted the above intrigued me the most – in order to be a fitness consultant and doing MMA must be pretty healthy – but clearly he cant be 36 and in his 20’s. He is a real person according to google and he does have a few links to diet and mma. However as noted before in other studies long-term impact probability is also a function of comorbidity. Its time to get healthy. Also these tail risk events of long-term damage should be compelling enough for one to do within reason to not purposely be exposed to high viral load.

US below 1K again – weekend reporting. India has garnered the top position.

Texas leads the states at 105

However on a county level Miami-Dade far outstrips any TX counties at 46

The big 4 counties – Miami-Dade is starting to trend up in deaths others continue a steady decline

Spain is not looking too good – deaths are now rising along with their confirmations

“get your news from reliable sources & think critically about everything that you hear. there’s no way to hack logic.” Eric Snowden

For the conspiracy folks – https://nypost.com/2020/09/11/chinese-virologist-says-she-has-proof-covid-19-was-made-in-wuhan-lab/

“A Chinese virologist who has reportedly been in hiding for fear of her safety has stepped out into the public eye again to make the explosive claim that she has the scientific evidence to prove COVID-19 was man-made in a lab in China.”

“She insisted that widespread reports that the virus originated last year from a wet market in Wuhan, China, are “a smokescreen.”

“The first thing is the [meat] market in Wuhan … is a smokescreen and this virus is not from nature,” Yan claimed, explaining that she got “her intelligence from the CDC in China, from the local doctors.”

“Yuan Zhiming, the director of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, has previously denied reports that the bug accidentally spread from his facility.

“There’s no way this virus came from us,” Zhiming told state media in April.”

County view is lacking in the press. State aggregation is typically too high to really understand the issues. Below is a chart that shows for the last 30 days counties with 500+ confirmation and the associated fatality rate sorted stopping at 4%

Interestingly the leader in the category is Essex MA (9.85%) which has not been discussed as the Southern states have been in the news with large confirmation and deaths. For this to be the case it must be a nursing home case would be my hypothesis – upon further investigation https://www.newburyportnews.com/news/regional_news/nursing-homes-fall-short-on-covid-19-testing/article_607111f2-3059-57d0-8a50-264d3c5838a2.html

“Nursing homes have been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak. More than two-thirds of the 5,772 COVID-19 deaths in Massachusetts as of Thursday have occurred in nursing homes and other long-term elderly care facilities, according to the state Department of Public Health.”

Greenwood South Carolina seems also very high (8.26%) – once again quick search – https://www.wyff4.com/article/111-patients-test-positive-in-upstate-nursing-home-covid-outbreak/33757941

“More than 100 patients have tested positive in a COVID-19 outbreak at an Upstate nursing home. NHC Greenwood is reporting 111 active coronavirus cases and five deaths.

According to their spokeswoman, Casey Reese, the facility had managed to keep patients coronavirus-free until this month, when it went from 0 cases to 111 since the first week in August.”

It is very important to understand these details as policy and rules to prevent covid deaths need to be directly focused to these issue. Shutting down general economic activity is not attacking the root of the issue if deaths are a result of nursing home mismanagement.

The next in line is Bexar County TX (San Antonio) – quick search found a data concern https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/politics/article/State-overcounts-COVID-19-deaths-in-Bexar-County-15456054.php

“Metro Health officials say they believe the state’s numbers are inflated and include people who died in Bexar County hospitals but lived elsewhere, and some who weren’t tested for the disease but whose death certificates nonetheless listed COVID-19 as a cause.”

“The state also said it records deaths based “on where the person lived.”

But Kurian said the state has relied on permanent addresses in Bexar County to determine where people lived — even though some people were living outside the county when they died.

“We did have many cases that resided outside of Bexar County jurisdictions, although their permanent address was Bexar County,” Kurian said. “What is happening is that nobody is verifying that address.”

Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff said about 20 percent of people in Bexar County hospitals live outside the county.”

Aggregation of data does not let you understand the issues that are at play. State aggregation is causing data issues to wrong diagnosis on how to remedy the issue.

On the other end of the spectrum these counties had over 500 confirmations but less tha 0.5% fatality rate – many are at 0

US death back on top but that was with several days below 1K

Texas leading death 297

Once again the leading county in TX is not a populated location but border county Hidalgo (47) – actually tied with Miami-Dade FL. Several counties along the border in TX reported deaths yesterday.

Positive Press on Sweden – https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/coronavirus-sweden-vindicated-as-covid-cases-hit-new-low/news-story/a255817a6c28dfb2a4b0e543d40bb541

“Sweden has registered its lowest rate of positive coronavirus tests yet even after its testing regime was expanded to record levels in what one health official said was a vindication of its relatively non-intrusive Covid-19 strategy.

Over the past week the country carried out more than 120,000 tests, of which only 1.3 per cent identified the disease.

At the height of the pandemic the proportion was 19 per cent.”

“In another striking illustration of the progress Sweden has made it is now recording fewer new cases per capita than Norway, which introduced one of Europe’s earliest lockdowns, for the first time since April. In Denmark, another Nordic country that initially seemed to have curbed Covid-19 through the imposition of tight restrictions, the infection rate has also risen much higher than the rate in Sweden.

Denmark and Norway have also largely reopened their borders to Swedes, although some quarantine measures have been put back in place as coronavirus has flared up again in Norway.

At the start of the pandemic the authorities in Stockholm reasoned that the disease would be a long-term challenge and that it would be better to allow the population to develop immunity to it while trying to protect those most at risk.

The government advised people to work from home where they could but left most of the country open, including bars, restaurants and schools for all except the oldest pupils.

It also declined to recommend the use of masks in shops or on trains and buses, although it requires people to keep at least 1.5m apart in public.”

“Some scientists predicted that as many as 180,000 people could die in a country of 10.2 million.

Those estimates proved to be drastically overblown: up to now there have been 5,838 Covid-19 deaths. In per capita terms this is the fifth highest death rate in Europe, behind only Belgium, the UK, Spain and Italy, but it has also fallen substantially since the summer. Only seven people died with the disease in the past week.”

Time will tell – they are seeing some confirmations rising in Sweden now but not as strong as the other countries. In the end should we care if someone get sick as long as they fully recover and do not die? Clearly in the beginning out of caution forecasted high rates of death but to be off by 180/5.8 =31+X is pretty bad. I think the Sweden approach is more about individual accountability and responsibility. They informed and let the people access the risk. Clearly some are very poor at that but they will eventually learn quickly.

Found this site which shows activity in the community with May 22nd being zero basis. Interesting results when compared to covid confirmations https://cai.burbio.com/countyoverview/ On top is the rated CAI level. Per Source “We measure in person community life across libraries, governments, Chambers, and local non-profits. Events read directly off calendars with "virtual" events filtered out. Gets at mobility because it measures which parts of the country are allowing people to go do community events. Updated daily. The deck describes methodology as we have indexes for five subsets of community life at the county level. Our daily reporting provides both the indexes, as well as the actual raw data – 15 libraries in a county, 4 having live events – gets at what ‘normal’ should look like. “

Unfortunate that San Francisco didn’t do a different activity classification than LA. Does point out there is more than social distancing factors in play – perhaps social distancing really doesn’t help in the bigger picture due to those that would cheat will cheat no matter what? Co-dependency/correlation – more community activity because no covid….Given the randomness perhaps it is saying individual actions are more important than govt. regulations – e.g. those choosing to wear mask wearing, going outdoors, less socialization, etc…

In FL Miami-Dade limited activity still confirmations grew – too bad not enough larger counties in FL to compare to

NY doesn’t show high CAI lead to more confirmation

In OH Franklin and Picaway both at 100 CAI – and Franklin being more densed still has much less confirmation per capita. The actions of the individuals is likely stronger than any govt. jurisdiction rule

In TX Harris county is the most discussed but you can see they sit in the middle of the pack in terms of confirmation per capita and the CAI of 60 – being more open would likely not have changed outcome based on the data dispersion. Once again pointing out individual actions likely more of indicator vs. govt. restrictions.

AZ is probably the poster child for needing to restrain activity but there is really no county in AZ to measure up to Maricopa to really confirm that – the graph just indicates more CAI more confirmation but not even close on pop density to compare to.

US is below 1K deaths and its from the middle of the week reporting – a very big deal.

FL leading the way with 216 deaths – Texas had ONLY 7

Miami-Dade lead the US counties with 49

LA is now at 11.2% confirmed per capita

More clarification on the vaccine setback by AstraZenaca https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/covid-19-vaccine-trial-participant-had-neurological-symptoms-astrazeneca-ceo-says.html

“The participant who triggered a global shutdown of AstraZeneca’s Phase 3 Covid-19 vaccine trials was a woman in the United Kingdom who experienced neurological symptoms consistent with a rare but serious spinal inflammatory disorder called transverse myelitis, the drug maker’s chief executive, Pascal Soriot, said during a private conference call with investors on Wednesday morning. The woman’s diagnosis has not been confirmed yet, but she is improving and will likely be discharged from the hospital as early as today, Soriot said.”

Positive vaccine front – https://bgr.com/2020/09/09/coronavirus-vaccine-good-news-pfizer-efficacy/

“Pfizer and BioNTech announced results from preclinical trials involving their leading mRNA vaccine candidate. The two companies already shared results for the previous phases of human trials, including data for older volunteers who had received the drugs. Those studies indicated that humans responded well to the vaccine, showing minimal adverse effects while developing the expected immune response.”

“The monkeys were given two shots of BNT162b2 three weeks apart, with a control group getting a saline solution instead. The researchers looked at two dosages for the drug and found that both of them resulted in the development of neutralizing antibodies that lasted for at least 56 days. The higher the dose, the higher the neutralizing antibody titers were, and the results were better than convalescent humans who survived COVID-19 and developed antibodies for the virus.

The animals also produced the desired T cell responses that suggest the vaccine is safe and has an anti-viral effect.

The macaques were challenged with a very high dose of SARS-CoV-2 on day 55 after immunization, via the nose and the lungs. The researchers found that the vaccine prevented the virus from infecting lung cells in immunized animals compared to the control group. The virus did infect nose cells, a response we saw from other preclinical trials, but the viral RNA was not detectable within three days after the infection. The vaccine prevented 100% of lung infections and cleared nasal infections cleared in 100% of the challenged monkeys.”

“The US government already inked a $1.95 billion agreement with Pfizer for 100 million doses and an option for an additional 500 million doses. The companies also announced on Wednesday that they’ve inked a deal with the European Union to supply 200 million doses of the vaccine and an option for another 100 million, with deliveries to start at the end of 2020. Pfizer and BioNtech have both signed the pledge to science earlier this week, together with other leading COVID-19 vaccine developers.”

Finally some silicon valley input on the covid front – https://fortune.com/2020/09/09/apple-special-face-mask-for-employees/

“Apple has developed masks that the company is beginning to distribute to corporate and retail employees to limit the spread of Covid-19.

The Apple Face Mask is the first created in-house by the Cupertino, Calif.-technology giant for its staff. The other, called ClearMask, was sourced elsewhere. Apple previously made a different face shield for medical workers and distributed millions of other masks across the health-care sector.

Apple told staff that the Face Mask was developed by the Engineering and Industrial Design teams, the same groups that work on devices such as the iPhone and iPad. It is made up of three layers to filter incoming and outgoing particles. It can be washed and reused as many as five times, the company told employees.”

US back on top of the leader board – but had many days with very low numbers – 1206. Worldwide deaths surpasses 900K

Leading death state FL at 195

Miami-Dade FL lead the US counties in death at 74. Confirmations on a county view shows a big splattering of confirmation. Harris county TX lead the way at 723. Confirmations from testing per school openings?

Miami-Dade deaths are very volatile – still overall trend showing a decline from peak in Aug 5th 7 day moving average death of 45.7

France is contemplating another lock down as confirmations are back up as noted several days ago – however their fatality rate 3wk confirmation delay is below 0.5%