If you have been reading – over and over it has been stated your covid spread is not coming from random strangers – the DATA clearly shows that….but if you insist on a study – The study was actually focused on understanding spread via age group but they uncovered that spreading is coming primarily from household members not non-household contacts – over 10X difference. – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article

“A total of 11.8% (95% CI 11.2%–12.4%) household contacts of index patients had COVID-19; in households with an index patient 10–19 years of age, 18.6% (95% CI 14.0%–24.0%) of contacts had COVID-19. For 48,481 nonhousehold contacts, the detection rate was 1.9% (95% CI 1.8%–2.0%) (Table 2). With index patients 30–39 years of age as reference, detection of COVID-19 contacts was significantly higher for index patients >40 years of age in nonhousehold settings. For most age groups, COVID-19 was detected in significantly more household than nonhousehold contacts (Table 2).”

“Earlier studies on the infection rate for symptomatic household contacts in the United States reported 10.5% (95% CI 2.9%–31.4%), significantly higher than for nonhousehold contacts”

ALSO VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE – as I said before school closure not likely to result in what you think. On many social media post – parents and retired teachers and others are organizing gatherings which are likely worse than a school setting given they can’t centralized a mechanical solution to mitigate viral load. People behaviors cannot be ignored!

“We also found the highest COVID-19 rate (18.6% [95% CI 14.0%–24.0%]) for household contacts of school-aged children and the lowest (5.3% [95% CI 1.3%–13.7%]) for household contacts of children 0–9 years in the middle of school closure. Despite closure of their schools, these children might have interacted with each other, although we do not have data to support that hypothesis.”

Schools should open WITH the most advanced affordable solution to mitigate viral load – from simply opening windows, modify HVAC to introduce more fresh air, to adding UVC lighting in ventilation, and wearing mask!

Short on cash? Houston Clinic offering $2000 to test Covid-19 – somehow this doesn’t seem right – https://www.newsweek.com/houston-clinics-offering-2000-those-willing-test-covid-19-vaccine-1519200

“The Texas Center for Drug Development is looking for 1,000 Houston-area volunteers to receive the experimental Moderna COVID-19 vaccine in its third phase of testing. Each volunteer will get up to $2,000 for participating.”

“She said, "This is not a live vaccine, so you cannot contract coronavirus from this vaccine itself." While the earlier phases of the vaccine trials looked at safety and side effects, phase three will focus on its effectiveness.”

“Side effects in the first two Moderna vaccine trials were generally mild, with 50 percent reporting muscle aches or pain at the injection site, fatigue, headache or chills.”

“Epidemiologists estimate that 70 percent of the population will need to develop immunity in order to end the pandemic, whether through vaccinations or other means, according to Science Magazine.”

No potential to get super powers? To make it less prey on the poor/desperate perhaps I hope it comes with a lifetime of care and potential life insurance if something went wrong – at least come with some Moderna stock – skin in the game.

Lets go eat some cabbage! Kimchi is pretty good you just got to make that leap of faith it will turn out okay for your taste buds – https://nypost.com/2020/07/20/foods-containing-cabbage-could-help-fight-coronavirus/

“According to a new study from France, foods containing raw and fermented cabbage may be beneficial against the coronavirus by reducing the levels of a compound that helps the virus infect the body, the South China Morning Post reported Monday.”

“The European researchers said the abundant antioxidants in the vegetables could explain why countries where cabbage is a key part of the national diet, like Germany and South Korea, had lower fatality rates than hard-hit countries such as the US.”

““Little attention has been given to the spread and severity of the virus, and regional differences in diet, but diet changes may be of great benefit. Nutrition may play a role in the immune defense against COVID-19 and may explain some of the differences seen in COVID-19 across Europe. I have now changed my diet, and it includes raw cabbage three times a week, sauerkraut once a week, and pickled vegetables,” he said.”

“It found Germany has significantly lower mortality, as did Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, the Baltic states and Finland, where cabbage is popular. Bulgaria, Greece and Romania also had reduced death rates, whereas fatalities were much higher in Belgium, France, Italy, Spain and the UK, where less cabbage is consumed,”

I am not surprised that we could see that diet and lifestyle is the key. Remember the previous report it was shown cholesterol drug was beneficial highlighting high cholesterol allowing a path for Covid. Study needs to be done on demographic lifestyle/diet. Hypothesis Vegans are likely a very good group when it comes to limiting Covid-19 fatalities. Lets revamp our food system and our health criteria and we can avoid pandemics and other health issues – imagine the economic savings. Do Singaporeans eat lots of cabbage? Belgium, UK, Italy, and France must not have a lot of cabbage – high cholesterol diet?

Mechanical solutions coming to reduce viral load – lets engineering ourselves out of our homes – https://www.foxnews.com/tech/pittsburgh-coronavirus-drone-disinfect-stadium-3-hours

“Aeras Fog Company, which is based in Wexford, Pa., said the machine utilizes electrostatic technology to sanitize large areas by discharging cleaner through its nozzles, which attach to both ground surfaces and underneath seats and other surfaces, like railings. It can spray up to 20 acres per hour.”

“Aeras Fog said the drone can be used indoors and out and that any cleaned area can be safely occupied three minutes after it is sprayed. The company recently tested the drone system on Pittsburgh’s Highmark Stadium and expects to have all the required certifications by this fall.”

I wanted to show/demonstrate how the latest outbreak is not even close to what happened in NY. Took several days to get the technology aligned with my vision. Below is a graph with day count starting when the first day 7 day moving average of daily deaths were above 75. You can see NY ended up at over 200 deaths/day less than week after hitting the 75 7 day moving average death level. In 12 days this figure was over 500 deaths per day. I have no idea why any would brag about how well NY is doing now….they are such an outlier in the world that they would eventually produced low deaths at some point. Texas is at 10 days and currently still at 119 deaths/day. Certainly this is 119 too high but in relationship to NYC it’s a miracle given the context of confirmations are much higher (3X) than NY. The peak for NY occurred day 22 after hitting 75 7 day MA death. CA is past that point but they are still very flat around 100 deaths. NY state is still averaging 16. Total deaths CA vs. NY still big gap even with CA recent surge. Even New Jersey with death revisions is a far cry from what was seen in NY. State and local officials have to be held accountable for such awful outcome.

With most of all the issues in NY due to NYC – excluding NYC the numbers would be so much lower.

Monday still showing low daily deaths. Brazil at 632…US only 372

Texas leads the death at only 94 ….Confirmation increases in CA and FL.

Same counties in confirmation increases as discussed previously.

Still no signs of crisis in Houston. Covid ICU bed needs have been trending down since July 5th.

Good news day….

Lets start with a cool quick video to demonstrate how the covid infection occur. I would add that its not just coughing or sneezing that is causing others to get infected – but talking and singing can also induce increase viral load to get others infected. https://www.technologynetworks.com/cell-science/videos/how-the-novel-coronavirus-infects-a-cell-science-simplified-337534#.

Protein treatment trial with very good results – https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53467022

“The treatment from Southampton-based biotech Synairgen uses a protein called interferon beta which the body produces when it gets a viral infection.

The protein is inhaled directly into the lungs of patients with coronavirus, using a nebuliser, in the hope that it will stimulate an immune response.

The initial findings suggest the treatment cut the odds of a Covid-19 patient in hospital developing severe disease – such as requiring ventilation – by 79%.

Patients were two to three times more likely to recover to the point where everyday activities were not compromised by their illness, Synairgen claims.”

“It said the trial also indicated "very significant" reductions in breathlessness among patients who received the treatment.

In addition, the average time patients spent in hospital is said to have been reduced by a third, for those receiving the new drug – down from an average of nine days to six days.”

“The double-blind trial involved 101 volunteers who had been admitted for treatment at nine UK hospitals for Covid-19 infections.”

“It is possible it could be given emergency approval, as the anti-viral drug remdesivir was in May”

“Interferon beta is part of the body’s first line of defence against viruses, warning it to expect a viral attack.

The coronavirus seems to suppress its production as part of its strategy to evade our immune systems.

The new drug is a special formulation of interferon beta delivered directly to the airways via a nebuliser which makes the protein into an aerosol.

The idea is that a direct dose of the protein in the lungs will trigger a stronger anti-viral response, even in patients whose immune systems are already weak.

Interferon beta is commonly used in the treatment of multiple sclerosis.

Previous clinical trials conducted by Synairgen have shown that it can stimulate an immune response and that patients with asthma and other chronic lung conditions can comfortably tolerate the treatment.”

Another pre-treatment option shown to be effective – over the counter product – https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/coronavirus-treatment-coldzyme-mouth-spray-sars-cov-2-covid-19-enzymatica-6386481.htm

“Swedish life science company Enzymatica has announced that the preliminary results of an in vitro study showing the ability of the mouth spray ColdZyme to deactivate SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing the COVID-19 pandemic. The study demonstrated that ColdZyme deactivates SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus by 98.3 percent.”

“The medical device ColdZyme is a mouth spray that forms a barrier in the oral cavity against common cold viruses. The barrier solution of the device is mainly composed of glycerol and Atlantic cod trypsin.

“The goal of the present study was to determine the ability of ColdZyme to deactivate SARS-CoV-2 known to cause the COVID-19 pandemic. A virucidal efficacy suspension test was conducted using ColdZyme against SARS-CoV-2. ColdZyme deactivated SARS-CoV-2 by 98.3% (1.76 log10) in 20 minutes.

"Furthermore, no cytotoxicity was detected for ColdZyme at any dilution tested. The study was conducted by the US company Microbac Laboratories Inc – an independent, accredited and certified laboratory,” the company statement said.”

I already checked not available on Amazon….sold out on ebay….

Here is another option that’s over the counter which already is taken by many but for some reason never made the media – they didn’t do a double blind either…- https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211589/

“A number of drugs have been proposed as treatments to prevent or reduce the severity of a COVID-19 infection. One agent that has been suggested to be potentially useful in this regard is the endogenously synthesized molecule, melatonin [[3], [4], [5], [6], [7]]. Melatonin was initially discovered in and thought to be exclusively a product of the vertebrate pineal gland. However, in consideration of the identification of melatonin in prokaryotic bacteria [8], from which mitochondria evolved (the endosymbiotic theory) and the uncommonly high levels of assayable melatonin in mitochondria [9], it was speculated and eventually documented that this indoleamine is synthesized in this organelle [10]. Given that most cells (a few exceptions) contain mitochondria, it is now believed that melatonin production occurs in most cells in all organisms. This has also been specifically demonstrated in human lung monocytes/macrophages”

“Because of melatonin’s potent antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activities, it would normally reduce the highly proinflammatory cytokine storm and neutralize the generated free radicals thereby preserving cellular integrity and preventing lung damage. In the absence of acetyl-coenzyme A, mitochondrial melatonin is no longer available to combat the inflammatory response or to neutralize the generated reactive oxygen species and the massive damage that occurs in the respiratory tree resulting in the primary signs of COVID-19 disease. Importantly, endogenous melatonin production diminishes markedly with age especially in frail older individuals. This is consistent with the more serious nature of a COVID-19 infection in the elderly.”

“Given the above information, the use of supplemental melatonin as a treatment to overcome a COVID-19 infection is justified. Exogenously administered melatonin reverses aerobic glycolysis by repressing both HIF-1α and mTOR thereby disinhibiting PDC activity and allowing acetyl-coenzyme A synthesis which also ensures locally-produced melatonin production”

“The anti-inflammatory and antioxidant actions of melatonin in protecting the lungs from damage in many experimental models that involve inflammation or oxidative stress (or both) is well documented [14]. Moreover, melatonin has anti-viral actions against viruses other than COVID-19 [15,16]. The collective data, in addition to its very high safety profile, indicate that melatonin would be effective as a treatment for COVID-19 and support the recommendation of the published reports that encourage its use for this purpose [[3], [4], [5], [6], [7]]. Melatonin is inexpensive, non-toxic over a very wide dose range, has a long shelf-life and can be self-administered which is a major advantage when large numbers of individuals are involved. Thus, the use of melatonin to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic would be feasible and a socially-responsible measure to attempt.”

Looks like I will try adding this to my Vitamin C, D, and Zinc – better sleep will be ancillary benefit hopefully….

On the vaccine front – Russia is pushing through – but what good Russian article doesn’t include hacking – https://fortune.com/2020/07/20/covid-vaccine-russia-approach/

“A top Russian official said his country could roll out a vaccine against COVID-19 as soon as September, while denying accusations that hackers working for the country’s intelligence agency tried to steal sensitive data from rival researchers in the U.K., U.S. and Canada.”

“President Vladimir Putin has made finding a vaccine a top priority. Russia has recorded more than 750,000 COVID-19 cases, making it the fourth most-affected country in the world. In Russia’s race to be the first to find a vaccine against COVID-19, it’s taking an approach that would be shunned in other countries, claiming it will know in just three months of trials whether its leading candidate works. If Russia proclaims success in the hunt for a vaccine before other candidates, it could create a world of dueling vaccines and geopolitical battles over who gets supplies.”

“Dmitriev said he’s so confident in Russia’s leading vaccine candidate that he’s taken it himself and had his whole family vaccinated, including his parents, who are in their seventies. The vaccine, financed by RDIF and developed by the state-backed Gamaleya Institute in Moscow, has completed a phase 1 trial in 50 people, all of whom are members of the Russian military. The institute hasn’t published results.”

“In another unusual move, Dmitriev said the vaccine has been given to “a significant” number of volunteers, both as part of and outside the formal trial. The director of the Gamaleya Institute said he and some of his staff tried the vaccine on themselves before the official trials started, RIA Novosti reported in May. Analysts have questioned Russia’s rushed unorthodox approach.”

“Russia, however, does have a track record developing vaccines using adenoviruses. It devised an Ebola vaccine using similar technology which is licensed in Russia for emergency use and which is expected to be deployes soon in the Congo. And Russia has been increasingly active in promoting its vaccine-making expertise in Africa. The Russian government together with United Company RUSAL opened the Russian-Guinean Research Center for Epidemiology and Prevention of Infectious Diseases in 2014 in Guinea.”

Wow how patriotic so many volunteers.

Miracles do happen….IF we look at the ICU data from the Texas Human and Health Services on July 16th there was only 71 ICU beds left in the Houston Trauma Service Area. This had fallen since July 3rd from 194 – over 9 beds a day – from confirmations rising 34108 to 51959 – 17851 (1373 per day). Death rose 122 (9/day) . Since July 16th confirmation grew to 55743 yesterday – a rise of 3784 (1261/day). In that time the ICU bed availability actually rose from 71 to 100 beds available with death only rising from 509 to 536 (9/day).

Another great Sunday reporting…just not real….Interesting to observe fatality rates do not have much economic correlation. Holds well for my AC hypothesis given poorer regions have no choice but to open windows.

This time Fl leading in death and confirmation.

No surprise in the counties – except for Utah showing up in confirmation and Bexar (San Antonia TX) leading again for TX.

Mexico fatality rate is an outlier to all other countries. Usually it drops into the pack of all other countries.

Not a good news day today….

Reinfection documented at 3 months…. https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550

“A doctor from Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan has been confirmed as infected with the coronavirus, three months after she recovered from the virus”

“Preliminary studies in China, Germany, Britain and elsewhere have found that patients infected with the novel coronavirus make protective antibodies as part of their immune system’s defenses, but these appear to last only a few months.”

Older children just as good of as carrier as an adult – https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-older-children-covid-spread-study-20200718-5q5eo4ylibcwppd2haxwvdp6re-story.html

“Children younger than age 10 transmit to others much less often than adults do, but the risk is not zero. And those between the ages of 10-19 can spread the virus at least as well as adults do”

“The researchers traced the contacts only of children who felt ill, so it is still unclear how efficiently asymptomatic children spread the virus, said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

“I think it was always going to be the case that symptomatic children are infectious,” she said. “The questions about the role of children are more around whether children who don’t have symptoms are infectious.”

Rivers was a member of a scientific panel that on Wednesday recommended reopening schools wherever possible for disabled children and for those in elementary schools, because those groups have the most trouble learning online. She said the new study does not alter that recommendation.

The study is more worrisome for children in middle and high school. This group was even more likely to infect others than adults were, the study found. But some experts said that finding may be a fluke or may stem from the children’s behaviors.

These older children are frequently as big as adults, and yet may have some of the same unhygienic habits as young children do. They may also have been more likely than the younger children to socialize with their peers within the high-rise complexes in South Korea.

“We can speculate all day about this, but we just don’t know,” Osterholm said. “The bottom line message is: There’s going to be transmission.””

I have agreed with the bottom line for a long time – the cat is out of the bag. We need to get healthy as a society (diet and exercise). We need to employ our engineering capabilities to reduce viral load. There are significant advantageous in spending on mechanical solutions beyond reduction of just covid issues – reduction of other illness – broad distribution of wealth across society (installers, mechanics, engineers, scientist, etc). Spending billions on a long-shot (vaccine) may not be the best capital allocation. Capital is allocated to a very small part of society and the result will likely be very focused to covid without any ancillary benefits.

Sundays are good reporting day – but that’s not reality – ignorance is bliss. Brazil under 1K but still lead in deaths at 921. US confirmation still rising at a strong pace 63K

AZ leading in death at 147. FL leading in confirmations

Same counties….Harris back in lead for TX in confirmation 1247

The amazing ICU bed flattening in Houston TSA in the face of additional confirmation does support my hypothesis I discussed before. Fatality rate has not risen significantly therefore there are not sacrifices being made in keeping ICU beds low. Likely over prescribed in the beginning phase – as noted before not necessarily nefarious.

Germany is observing a steep drop in deaths so something is positive in the world in terms of trends – now only 3 deaths per day.

Topic of the day school re-opening….We should not think of this as we are isolated and have no data to know what to do. We should also be cognizant of what peoples reaction would be IF school closures happen and to really understand IF their actions would result in a worse situation.

First lets understand worldwide what is happening – many parts of the world doesn’t have summer break like we do – https://globalhealth.washington.edu/sites/default/files/COVID-19%20Schools%20Summary%20%282%29.pdf?

Denmark, Germany, and Norway ALL did things to produce the below results.

“school re-opening in Denmark has not resulted in a significant increase in the growth rate of COVID-19 cases”

“school re-opening in Germany has been accompanied by increased transmission among students, but not school staff”

“school re-opening in Norway has not resulted in a significant increase in the growth rate of COVID-19 cases. 1”

Isreal:“Teachers and students older than 7 years are required to wear masks. As of June 24, 2020, isolation and quarantine has affected approximately 1% of

Israeli students”

Japan: “The Ministry of Health issued guidelines for school reopening that includes measures

such as opening windows to ventilate classrooms, maintaining physical distance, checking temperatures

daily, and wearing face masks”

We SHOULD Cherry pick solutions and come up with a way to produce an environment for learning. We should also think outside the box and implement mechanical solutions. We are the wealthiest nation we should be able to produce a safe learning environment.

I am pro-online learning and self teaching – if your kid cannot learn from online e.g. youtube they are missing a very key component to the future. However I understand the physical aspect of socialization skills and also the fact parents have designed their life around a place that takes care of their children while they work.

In the social media many parents are coming up with solutions for group learning in peoples homes – or ex-teachers are offering services at their locations – this will defeat the whole purpose of not opening up schools and could make the situation worse. Then of course kids particularly teenagers will likely do things while their parents are at work that could be not very safe beyond covid.

IF an infected symptomatic person on an 13 hour flight not infect anyone – there is a mechanical solution to the problem. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30314-5/fulltext

“Patient 0, who was an employee of the Chinese branch of a German company based in greater Munich, travelled from Shanghai to Munich by aeroplane on Jan 19, 2020, to facilitate workshops and attend meetings in the company building. The day after arrival (Jan 20, 2020), patient 0 felt chest and back aches—which she reported to be unusual—and took a single dose of medicine containing paracetamol. The patient reported fatigue during her whole stay in Germany and attributed the symptom to jetlag. After an overnight flight back to Shanghai on Jan 22, the patient felt feverish. With a self-measured temperature of 38·6°C and cough on Jan 24, the patient visited a physician’s office on Jan 25. The patient tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on Jan 26 and was hospitalised the next day. The clinical situation in both parents also deteriorated during the primary case’s stay in Germany and both were laboratory-confirmed with COVID-19 later.7 The German company was informed of the primary case’s infection in the morning of Jan 27, 2020, and immediately informed its employees as well as the local health authority.”

“A Chinese colleague (patient 13) of patient 0 accompanied them in multiple activities while in Germany. Patient 13 travelled back to China with patient 0, developed symptoms on Jan 27, and tested SARS-CoV-2 positive a few days later.”

“Patient 12 departed for vacation to Spain 3 days later (Jan 28). After Spanish authorities were informed, patient 12 was isolated in hospital on Jan 30 and diagnosed with COVID-19.”

“Extensive contact tracing involved the international flights from Munich to Shanghai (patient 0 on Jan 22, 2020) and from Munich to Tenerife (patient 12 on Jan 28, 2020). As of May 2, no further cases have been identified among flight passengers or other (personal) contacts.”

The cost to ventilate classrooms/offices/public spaces and redesign HVAC systems to pull more fresh air and to install UV filtration is nothing compared to the economic cost of shutting down and working on vaccines that may or may not work. This along with mask wearing should be sufficient to keep the viral load in check to not cause significant spread.

The sentiment expressed in this article is on track with my sentiment – https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-schools-can-reopen-safely-recommendations-from-health-experts-11594652649?mod=e2tw

The politics of this is AWFUL much like HCQ – just because some guy that you don’t like says something – you want to do the opposite – do you see how much power you have given the guy? Smartly open the schools by implementing mechanical solutions combined with safety protocols.

Sacrifices need to be made but as long as they are reasonable and not overburdensome lets do it so we can move on. Wear the mask, ventilate, spend more on electricity, be more healthy, be safe and move on….

Brazil on top of death no surprise there – but second place with 1057 deaths is Chile! US Confirmation continues to top at 71.5K

Texas tops both death and confirmation 163 and 11914 respectively.

Same counties lead the pack other than Dallas is now the leader in Texas in confirmations.

This could be just a reporting delay to cause Dallas to have topped Harris county the 7 day MA still below Harris.

It does look like Houston is being very prudent with who goes to ICU. If it is too prudent we should see a corresponding increase in fatality rate.

ICU growth has remarkably flattened out in the fact of increasing confirmations. Less than 0.1% of those confirmed on 7 day MA are going to the ICU.

South America is now representing much of the top death countries. Confirmation in Chile is highest on the list at over 1.5% per capita

What makes it likely much worse for Chile – is that they haven’t really even tested that much still under 7% tested per capita.

Good news day again!

Common blood thinning medication might help mitigate Covid-19 – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.201616v1.full.pdf

“SARS-CoV-2 spike protein interacts with cell surface heparan sulfate and

angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) through its Receptor Binding Domain”

“These findings support a model for

SARS-CoV-2 infection in which viral attachment and infection involves formation of a complex

between heparan sulfate and ACE2. Manipulation of heparan sulfate or inhibition of viral

adhesion by exogenous heparin may represent new therapeutic opportunities.”

Immunity via Tcell could last 17 years! AND not only that but similar infections with related viruses may be able to protect you – perhaps explain how some people do so well they were infected previously by a similar virus – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z_reference.pdf

“Memory T cells induced by previous pathogens can shape the susceptibility to, and clinical severity of, subsequent infections1. Little is known about the presence of pre-existing memory T cells in humans with the potential to recognize SARS-CoV-2. Here, we frst studied T cell responses to structural (nucleocapsid protein, NP) and non-structural (NSP-7 and NSP13 of ORF1) regions of SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19convalescents (n=36)”

“We then showed that SARS-recovered patients (n=23) still possess long-lasting memory T cells reactive to SARS-NP 17 years after the 2003 outbreak, which displayed robust cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 NP”

“antibody levels appear to wane faster than T cells. SARS-CoV-specific antibodies dropped below the detection limit within 2 to 3 years10, whereas SARS-CoV-specific memory T cells have been detected even 11 years after SARS infection”

“Our findings also raise the intriguing possibility that long-lasting T cells generated following infection with related viruses may be able to protect against, or modify the pathology caused by, SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

“Theoretically, individuals exposed to coronaviruses might just prime ORF-1-specific T cells, since the ORF-1-coded proteins are produced first in coronavirus-infected cells and are necessary for the formation of the viral replicase-transcriptase complex essential for

the subsequent transcription of the viral genome leading to various RNA species Therefore, ORF-1-specific T cells could hypothetically

abort viral production by lysing SARS-CoV-2-infected cells before the formation of mature virions.”

A new test – the all in one test – that can produce results in 20 minutes and tell if you are currently infected and if you had it! https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/3093608/australian-researchers-invent-20-minute-coronavirus-blood

“Their test, using 25 microlitres of plasma from blood samples, looks for agglutination, or a clustering of red blood cells, that the coronavirus causes.

While the current swab test is used to identify people who are infected with the coronavirus, the agglutination assay – or analysis to detect the presence and amount of a substance in blood – can also determine if someone had been recently infected, after the infection is resolved, they said. Hundreds of samples can be tested every hour, the researchers said, and they hope it can also be used to detect antibodies raised in response to vaccination to aid clinical trials. ”

In order of merit in understanding the extent of a pandemic confirmations – hospitalization – deaths. As discussed before and also noted in the media – confirmations don’t really assess the issue of the pandemic at least in real-time. After things are settled somewhat and testing is expanded to a random statistical sampling of the population confirmations then and only then can give you an extent of the pandemic but usually at this point priorities are shifted to not understand what has happened but to recover where you are at. Hospitalization would seem to be able to give a good assessment on where things are and hopefully be a leading indicator in order to avoid deaths. However hospitalization likely have some human aspects that are not necessarily accounted for. Below analysis I will try to rationalize this issue. Eventually death is likely the most reliable method – which is used the most in calculating/understanding historical pandemics most will use crude mortality rates – death/population. As noted before deaths are not a metric you want to wait on for obvious reasons.

Texas Health and Human Services for Trauma Service Area Q (Houston) https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f Seemed to hype the urgency and concern relative to Texas Medical Center data https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-2-week-projection-using-bed-occupancy-growth/

Which one is more right?

Lets look at what has happened over the last few weeks – The below charts are confirmed cases for Harris County and the corresponding THHS Trauma Service Area Q data – for those not knowledgeable Houston is primarily in Harris County. Also to note 7 day moving average is needed to smooth out weekend reporting and July 4th holiday reporting which had near zero confirmations then an extreme jump on the 6th. You will note in the middle of June confirmations started to rise and then hospitalizations started rising. After July 4th we see a drop in hospitalization but yet the confirmations are still rising. In fact the percentage of those being hospitalized dropped from 17% to less than 1% less than anytime before the big rise. It took from the middle of June to rise from 5% to 17% by July 4th, but now we drop from 17% to less than 1% in less than 2 weeks.

A common excuse is the testing expanded and now covers more people not needing to be hospitalized. This would have to be a very selective testing as the amount of people going to ICU/Hospitalized did not go down but actually is up (4th chart below).

If we look into the ICU piece of the puzzle which everyone used to closed down the economy as this does represent the critical constraint to life or death. Interesting the news of imminent overflow eventually caused a pause right below that number for the past week. Once again confirmations did not stop rising just the ratio from confirmations to ICU drop from 4% to less than 0.04%. Clearly people would be turned away IF limit is reached and then corresponding death would rise. There is NO point in turning a patient away from ICU when there is availability IF they need it until you hit the point of overflow.

My proposed hypothesis to explain this phenomenon is two fold. The less nefarious side is the human nature of not taking into account scarcity until scarcity shows up. The criteria to hospitalization and ICU was relaxed in the beginning. An over hospitalized rate would also explain/support the big drop in deaths/confirmation noted in the delayed confirmation 2-4 week range. Over hospitalization should make over abundance of care so that patient would very much survive from any other health issues beyond covid that could occur (including accident broken leg, car accidents, falls, other infections, etc…). Then as the news and pressure from administration and politicians AND the fact there were less beds available the criteria to admission has resulted in a tighter criteria – this resulted in slight rise in mortality rate but still record low for the country.

The more nefarious view is when calculating a revenue per hospital. Empty bed = no revenue. Full bed = revenue. I have read that some would argue Full Bed could actually result in losses as cost are outweighed to treat a covid patient. Nonetheless empty bed one couldn’t request any money or even complain of losses. Obviously the mix of the two could likely be happening. Empty beds allows not only the doctors and nursed to be more cautious (over treatment) about their treatment plan but as things get tight they do make the right call and allocate resources more effectively. The administration side of things obviously don’t want to overbuild capacity and want to show they are great planners and have planned appropriately so empty beds is not necessarily a good thing.

This is not isolated to hospitals but is in all human aspects of materials. As a resource planner in the power generation space you are blamed for an oversupply of resources but those complaints are far much better than the complaints of blackout or brown out. In order to mitigate the oversupply utilities may dispatch plants uneconomically and/or export power to show that the resources are still working and that the perception its not all for waste. Perhaps some purposely overbuild in order to get returns to be able to give out dividends but in general one needs to show proof that there was some rational for this case.

Bottom line – Houston health system is working to its design. Top world class health facility in the world is fully capable of making the correct call and using resources as needed. Death rates are still the best in the country and the envy of the world. Can they tighten their criteria and or free up more resources? very likely. Hospitalization data is not a complete forward indicator without considering some business/human decisions factors. It is a reality that there is still an underlying business underneath it all. Businesses are required to allocate capital and make use of what is deployed. Does this mean we are not going to have a problem? No – IF we continue to grow in confirmation the new slope would eventually hit a point where decisions leads to increase deaths that would not be ethical. However that growth is MUCH larger than what the initial hospitalization data suggest.

Brazil continues to lead in deaths 1322 and now looks very similar to the US in fatality rate ~4% and confirmed per capita ~1%

Texas leading both confirmation and deaths.

Bexar County (San Antonio) actually leading confirmation for all counties in US – 5980 – looks like they are playing catch up with their data – https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/16/bexar-county-reports-thousands-of-backlogged-covid-19-cases-601-new-cases/

Another weakness in the confirmation data as the current data stream assumes it all occurred yesterday – but they are saying it was backlog for the past 2 weeks!

“On Thursday, officials reported an eye-popping 5,501 more COVID-19 cases in Bexar County, 691 of which surfaced today, while the rest were backlogged.

San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg explained that the backlog was a result of kinks in the communication process with the state, and that cases have been underreported in the past two weeks. Despite that, all patients who tested positive were notified within four days.”

France and China spike in deaths

First report I have seen discussing an actual autopsy of covid-19 death. https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/autopsies-indicate-blood-clots-are-lethal-in-covid-19-67727?

“Both lungs were symmetrically damaged, with damage to the alveoli, the tiny air sacs of the lungs. The pleurae, the double-lined membranes, surrounding the lungs showed very little inflammatory changes, a little fluid. Most cases had a strongly dilated heart, but the abdomen was not really involved”

“it’s not the pulmonary embolism which is the major cause of severe illness but the inflammation of the blood vessels and a change in the clotting system of the blood. And this causes occlusion of the pulmonary arteries, which increases the pressure of pulmonary circulation and then leads to an insufficiency of the heart to pump blood through the body properly.”

“inflammatory mechanisms lead to the thrombosis.”

“the central nervous system doesn’t seem to be really specifically affected, at least grossly.”

“I think there’s a coincidence with diabetes. I think that has to do with the vascular changes caused by diabetes. . . . These patients due to their diabetes have atherosclerosis, then they have heart disease, and this aggravates the course of these COVID-19–associated pulmonary changes because, you know, when you have a strong heart, you will be able to overcome the infection, but if you have some associated disease, particularly heart diseases, you will undergo cardiac failure.”

“ten out of our eleven patients received an anticoagulant at a prophylactic level to prevent clotting in the blood. We did not find thrombosis in the deep arteries of the pelvis and the deep blood vessels of the pelvis and upper legs, but the treatment was not enough to prevent thrombosis in the pulmonary arteries.”

“What we really don’t know at the moment is how the virus goes through the body, what are the sequence of changes caused by the virus. That’s not completely solved”

Brazil continues to lead in death. Death per capita is now 0.35% per capita. Fatality rate similar to the US and is lightly under 4%.

Similar to the US Brazil death or confirmation is not all over the place. Covid-19 holds a slight juxtaposition – it is contagious but yet focused.

US confirmation continues to climb at a strong rate 66K. TX leads confirmation and death 136

The same counties of focus driving the confirmations and death.

Confirmation rising faster than deaths so the fatality rates still haven’t risen.

Interesting the ICU beds in TSA Houston area holding flat even though confirmations in Harris County rising.

Are we going to get a second wave. We are still in first wave. No one really has gone into second wave. The recent increases are coming in areas which did not observe the first wave e.g. Harris County, LA, Miami-Dade….

You have to ask yourself why so delayed – which I tried to point out before people are going inside their homes/buildings in the South. Areas without AC should not see an increase in covid IF my thesis is right e.g. France, Africa,….. However the next wave of going back inside is not till the fall/winter for NY and European countries and even China. Can we prevent the wave from being not large? – yes – if start investing and implementing technology that will reduce viral load. So much money going to testing and vaccine development. We need a risk mitigation plan that is feasible and not so costly – mechanical solution I believe is possible.

Have you wonder why San Francisco is not showing up in the news but LA is? Both in California and both have ties to the same system. It would seem like San Fran goes outside much more with bike rate 3X walk rate 2+X – even with higher population density and higher public transport rate their numbers are so much better than LA. One thing is they do have more Asians in San Fran than LA therefore perhaps more willing to wear mask?

If we look at temps – you are more likely to have the window open in San Fran than in LA.

Good news day focus…

New mechanical solutions to reduce viral load coming out – at some point govt. need to mandate some options for public spaces much as they do with mask wearing – reducing viral load is key. https://uh.edu/news-events/stories/july-2020/07142020ren-covid-filter

“Researchers from the University of Houston, in collaboration with others, have designed a “catch and kill” air filter that can trap the virus responsible for COVID-19, killing it instantly.

Zhifeng Ren, director of the Texas Center for Superconductivity at UH, collaborated with Monzer Hourani, CEO of Medistar, a Houston-based medical real estate development firm, and other researchers to design the filter, which is described in a paper published in Materials Today Physics.

The researchers reported that virus tests at the Galveston National Laboratory found 99.8% of the novel SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was killed in a single pass through a filter made from commercially available nickel foam heated to 200 degrees Centigrade, or about 392 degrees Fahrenheit. It also killed 99.9% of the anthrax spores in testing at the national lab, which is run by the University of Texas Medical Branch.”

Another mechanical solution to reduce viral load and also deactivates the virus – https://weartv.com/news/local/cantonment-based-manufacturing-company-invents-virus-killing-mask

“McDivitt said studies show their ‘Acteev’ material kills 99% of viruses, including the Coronavirus.

The product has active zinc in it that destroys viruses and bacteria.

It’s being used in three masks they’ve developed, which the company said are more effective than those on the market right now.”

““It’s going to be completely different than a general purpose mask or a N-95 because those masks– the way they work is they’re simply just trying to stop the virus. They actually don’t do anything to deactivate the virus or kill the virus,” said McDivitt.

McDivitt told Channel 3 News the basic version of the mask, which resembles a surgical mask, will cost several dollars.”

Making covid-19 no more impactful than common cold via a cholesterol drug – https://www.jpost.com/health-science/hebrew-u-scientist-drug-could-eradicate-covid-19-from-lungs-in-days-635028

Noted another win for a vegan diet – given vegan diet is essentially a no cholesterol diet.

“Researchers at Israel’s Hebrew University of Jerusalem and New York’s Mount Sinai Medical Center believe they could potentially downgrade COVID-19’s severity into nothing worse than a common cold.

New research by Hebrew University Prof. Ya’acov Nahmias and Sinai’s Dr. Benjamin tenOever revealed that the FDA-approved drug Fenofibrate (Tricor) could reduce SARS-CoV-2’s ability to reproduce or even make it disappear.”

“Nahmias and tenOever spent the last three months studying what SARS-CoC-2 is doing to human lung cells. What they found is that the novel coronavirus prevents the routine burning of carbohydrates, which results in large amounts of fat accumulating inside lung cells – a condition the virus needs to reproduce.”

“…Nahmias said, noting that it also may help explain why patients with high blood sugar and cholesterol levels are often at a particularly high risk to develop COVID-19. The team then reviewed a panel of eight already approved drugs that could possibly interfere with the virus’s ability to reproduce. Tricor caused the cells to start burning fat, Nahmias said. The result was that the virus almost completely disappeared within only five days of treatment. The experiment was done in lab studies both in Israel and New York and was replicated several times with different lung samples. Nahmias said there is a strong indication that the experiment is highly repeatable in other labs.

The team is advancing to animal studies in New York and hoping to fast-track clinical studies in both Israel and the US within the next couple of weeks, since the drug is already proven safe. ”

We have learned a lot about Covid-19 over the past few months. There are several negatives but yet positive takeaway. I think the big negative seems to be this is not going away and will likely be an endemic. The positive is we can treat it AND not only that we can prevent it through a healthy lifestyle living and likely cheap alternatives (BCG vaccine, Vitamin C, D, healthy lifestyle (diet and exercise). There are also mechanical solutions that can be implemented in buildings to reduce viral load. Mask wearing is also simple viral load reducer – yet controversial. Expensive drugs are not needed for treatment if prevented in the first place. Even if prevention is not possible we do seem to have promising treatments from simple steroids to cholesterol reducing drugs.

Data dive into the US counties of interest. Below is the pie chart broken out by county for the US for the last 30 days for confirmed test results. You can see the 4 counties we have discussed each day leading the pack. They represent 16% of total confirmation – yet those counties only represent 6% of total US population.

On the death side those same counties are high but not the highest as NY still leads that category

Those counties are not at all tracking what happened in NY. The scale of NY deaths and confirmation are nowhere near what we are seeing in any of these counties. To give NY kudos at this point for their current numbers is quite disingenuous. There is no doubt in my mind something went awry in NYC.

Nonetheless the recent increase in confirmations is somewhat alarming. There have been continuous warning of the health care system. Harris county offers a tale of two stories….Texas Health and Human Service continues to show a bleak outlook in its data for Houston area https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

The Texas Medical Center shows a different story

They are so FAR apart only one of them can be close to the truth.

It would seem the Texas Health and Human Service is off given the numbers are not adding up in terms of producing the dire crunch as they indicated. Looking at the change chart for both confirmation and the ICU beds for Covid reported by the THHS there is not much delay in ICU bed jump and confirmation jumps. However the ICU beds are not following the pattern of increase confirmation. Perhaps hospitals are being more prudent with ICU selection and/or better pre-treatment to not get into ICU and/or change in demographic in confirmation.

Obviously at some point IF things were really bad we should start seeing increase deaths. Yet still so very far away from NY fatality rate of 10+% ….Harris County still sits at under 1%. Of course lots of stories on how its not just death and longterm issues etc…yet all those reports not 1 discusses what is the percentage of those experiencing longterm issue. There is no doubt some will have longterm impacts from contracting covid but yet to be known if they represent a significant amount.

Brazil deaths shot up to 1300. US second at 900 – but once again lead in confirmation 67.4K

California leads in deaths and confirmation at 161 and 12.9K respectively.

Same county cohorts as discussed above

Global View

Being non-geneticist I think this article does a pretty good job of describing virus evolution and their theory on that the virus did not come from a lab – also lots of good facts in the article- https://thenextweb.com/syndication/2020/07/14/scientists-know-coronavirus-came-from-bats-not-a-lab-heres-how/

“An estimated 60% of known infectious diseases and 75% of all new, emerging, or re-emerging diseases in humans have animal origins. SARS-CoV-2 is the newest of seven coronaviruses found in humans, all of which came from animals, either from bats, mice or domestic animals. Bats were also the source of the viruses causing Ebola, rabies, Nipah and Hendra virus infections, Marburg virus disease, and strains of Influenza A virus. The genetic makeup or “genome” of SARS-CoV-2 has been sequenced and publicly shared thousands of times by scientists all over the world. If the virus had been genetically engineered in a lab there would be signs of manipulation in the genome data. This would include evidence of an existing viral sequence as the backbone for the new virus, and obvious, targeted inserted (or deleted) genetic elements.

But no such evidence exists. It is very unlikely that any techniques used to genetically engineer the virus would not leave a genetic signature, like specific identifiable pieces of DNA code.”

“One of the key features that makes SARS-CoV-2 different from the other coronaviruses is a particular “spike” protein that binds well with another protein on the outside of human cells called ACE2. This enables the virus to hook into and infect a variety of human cells. However, other related coronaviruses do have similar features, providing evidence that they have evolved naturally rather than being artificially added in a lab.”

“It is also important to remember that around one in five of all mammal species on Earth are bats, with some found only in certain locations and others migrating across vast distances. This diversity and geographical spread makes it a challenge to identify which group of bats SARS-CoV-2 originally came from.”

Bad news confirmed – looks like the virus can infect the brain so not just a respiratory issue – https://onezero.medium.com/what-miniature-lab-grown-brains-reveal-about-the-effects-of-covid-19-e73b7c1b84e9

“Hartung and his team are using the brain organoids to better understand SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. What they’ve found so far about the brain’s susceptibility to the virus is concerning: “It’s bad news adding to a pile of bad news,” Hartung tells OneZero.”

“What she found was that the virus could infect the mini brains and, 72 hours later, it began multiplying inside them, suggesting that human brain cells are susceptible to the virus.”

“Chinese researchers reported that about 36% of 214 Covid-19 patients at a Wuhan hospital had neurological symptoms in addition to respiratory ones. And a study published July 8 in the journal Brain found that neurological complications of Covid-19 can include delirium, brain inflammation, stroke, and nerve damage.”

“In May, scientists in China reported in Nature that bat organoids could be infected with SARS-CoV-2, lending evidence to the idea that the virus originated in bats.”

Potential vaccine using measle vaccination – win-win measles and covid solved – kill two birds with 1 stone – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.11.198291v1

“we generated measles virus (MeV)-based vaccine candidates expressing the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein (S). Insertion of the full-length S protein gene in two different MeV genomic positions resulted in modulated S protein expression. The variant with lower S protein expression levels was genetically stable and induced high levels of effective Th1-biased antibody and T cell responses in mice after two immunizations. In addition to neutralizing IgG antibody responses in a protective range, multifunctional CD8+ and CD4+ T cell responses with S protein-specific killing activity were detected. These results are highly encouraging and support further development of MeV-based COVID-19 vaccines.”

To confirm or not to confirm is the question – https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/orlando-health-confirms-state-covid-19-report-has-errors

“Countless labs report 100 percent positivity, which means every single person tested was positive. OX 35 sifted through the report to find local testing sites with high numbers, like Centra Care, where the report showed 83 people were tested and all tested positive. The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Affairs Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA said officials are looking into the numbers. NCF Diagnostics has a location in Alachua, which reported 88 percent of tests coming back positive and 98 percent for Orlando Health. How could that be? We investigated these astronomical numbers, contacting every location mentioned. Orlando Health, the only to answer our question, confirmed errors in the report. Its positivity rate is in fact only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.”

US still on a tear in terms of confirmation. Brazil leads in death at 733

Florida leads confirmation – no surprise if labs reporting 100% positivity rates….Texas leads in death at 60

TX death was distributed across the state no center location which would not indicate a result of an overwhelmed health system. Confirmations continue to be mainly the same 4 counties.

LA and Maricopa now confirming at over 6% of per capita. Fatality rates still low and not moving much with latest confirmation and deaths.

This week we SHOULD see Houston Trauma System Area overwhelm IF the data is right.

Country view stacked by deaths

Ingenuity – I hope this is real and I expect more to come in terms of mechanical solutions – https://www.yankodesign.com/2020/07/12/uv-mask-is-the-worlds-first-antiviral-face-mask-with-an-active-uv-c-sterilization-for-99-99-clean-air/

Remdesivir good news – https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-remdesi-idUSKCN24E0AO

“The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Saturday results from a first group of 27 patients given remdesivir in different hospitals.

Nine of the patients showed an improvement in their condition, 15 showed no change, and three worsened, KCDC deputy director Kwon Jun-wook told a briefing.

The result had yet to be compared with a control group and more analysis was needed to conclude remdesivir’s benefit, Kwon said.”

Article also notes S. Korea continues to battle small outbreaks but they are doing a very good job with only 289 deaths.

Unfortunately done with the good news:

CDC updated planning scenarios – we got a lot more confirmations to go to get the numbers noted in their scenarios. They are now moving towards 40% being asymptomatic which is close to the recent studies done showing (1 in 3). In order to get the fatality rate to 0.0065 from current levels 17 million MORE need to be confirmed (5.5X from current levels).

Limited immunity from Covid-19 from latest research – much like a cold – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1.full.pdf

“We suggest that this transient nAb

42 response is a feature shared by both a SARS-CoV-2 infection that causes low disease severity

43 and the circulating seasonal coronaviruses that are associated with common colds. This study

44 has important implications when considering widespread serological testing, Ab protection

45 against re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 and the durability of vaccine protection.”

“In summary, using sequential samples from SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals collected up to

333 94 days POS, we demonstrate declining nAb titres in the majority of individuals. For those

334 with a low nAb response, titres can return to base line over a relatively short period”

Longterm damage in covid-19 patients in Italy – https://www.businessinsider.com/head-icu-bergamo-italy-epicentre-lifelong-damage-recovered-covid-patients-2020-7

“The head of intensive care at a hospital in Northern Italy that was in the center of the country’s outbreak says COVID-19 patients there have been left with serious health issues that may never go away.

Dr Roberto Cosentini, the head of the emergency department at Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital in Bergamo, Lombardy, told Sky News "we see a significant proportion of the population with chronic damage from the virus."

Cosentini did not specify how large the proportion was.”

Same article above had a link indicating 50% of population in Bregamo infected – https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy-antibodies/over-half-of-people-tested-in-italys-bergamo-have-covid-19-antibodies-idUKKBN23F2K1

Death reporting down as usual for Sunday. Brazil 631. India second at 501. Confirmation continue to be high for the US – as noted in CDC this number has to continue to rise IF the fatality rate was going to be near what is projected.

Death leader in US was AZ at 86. FL confirmed 15.3K new covid infections.

FL confirmation 22% came from Miami-Dade which only represent 8% of the population of the state.

Deaths are creaping up but still much lower than the confirmation rate. IF Harris county was to converge to CDC fatality rate of 0.0065 then an additional 25K need to be confirmed without any incremental death. For each additional death 153 more person need to be confirmed.

Houston is getting federal assistance now – so not sure if all the sudden we wont hit the ICU limit they were indicating. Still the trajectory is still there. Yesterday did show a drop in covid-19 ICU beds.

Mexico has past Italy in total deaths. But death per capita is still much lower than Italy

The company who makes the drug has shown from their own study that it is very effective – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/gilead-says-remdesivir-coronavirus-treatment-reduces-risk-of-death.html

“Gilead Sciences announced new findings Friday that its antiviral drug remdesivir reduced the risk of death for severely sick coronavirus patients by 62% compared with standard care alone, saying more research is needed. he company said its analysis also found that remdesivir treatment was associated with “significantly improved clinical recovery.” The findings are being presented at the Virtual Covid-19 Conference as part of the 23rd International AIDS Conference, the company said.”

Given the US paid 1.2B at $2340 per treatment it had better shown something. IS it still worth it? What was Standard Care? Could standard care be also compared to HCQ with Zinc which is under $10?

Let us not highlight this other study – since not produced from the company and perhaps would not support the market rally – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.27.174896v1.full.pdf

“After designing 56 residues in the Remdesivir binding site of nsp12, the designs retained 96-98% sequence identity, which suggests that SARS-CoV-2 attains resistance and develops further infectivity with very few mutations in the nsp12.”

“A comparison of 21 nsp12 Remdesivir-bound designs to the 13 EIDD-2801-bound nsp12 designs suggested that EIDD-2801 would be more effective in preventing the emergence of resistant mutations and against Remdesivir-resistance strains due to the restricted mutational landscape.

Covid-19 based on their findings will likely develop a resistance to Remdesivir ….thats not good news. Interesting they compare it to EIDD-2801 – this is another experimental drug from a Miami based company Ridgeback Biotherapeutics – this is an oral drug unlike Remdesivir which is an IV treatment.

Automation acceleration due to Covid – https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/10/business/tyson-meatpacking-plants-automation/index.html?

“Tyson, which has invested a half of a billion dollars in technology and automation during the past three years, is now expediting its efforts, according to the Journal report”

Andrew Yang is right

Why not do somethings simple and easy and proven to be not fatal and limited side effects – BCG vaccine – risk/reward asymmetric – let people get BCG vaccine at least give it to the kids per the benefits- https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/07/2008410117

“A strong correlation between the BCG index, an estimation of the degree of universal BCG vaccination deployment in a country, and COVID-19 mortality in different socially similar European countries was observed (r2 = 0.88; P = 8 × 10−7), indicating that every 10% increase in the BCG index was associated with a 10.4% reduction in COVID-19 mortality. Results fail to confirm the null hypothesis of no association between BCG vaccination and COVID-19 mortality, and suggest that BCG could have a protective effect.”

“In the last 10 y, several studies demonstrated that the priming or “training” of the innate immune system is an ancient response observed in evolutionarily distant organisms, including plants (40), insects (41), and humans (42). Trained immunity, defined as the enhancement in innate immune responses to subsequent infections, is achieved through epigenetic and metabolic programming of immune cells that allows them to mount a stronger response to pathogens and to activate adaptive responses more efficiently (43). Trained immunity can confer broad protection that is not pathogen specific. For example, BCG vaccination is approved as a treatment for cancer of the bladder, and destruction of cancer cells has been shown to be mediated by trained immunity (44). Furthermore, BCG vaccination has been shown to elicit long-lasting innate immune responses, beyond those specific to mycobacteria (45), and to modify hematopoietic stem cells, resulting in epigenetically modified macrophages that provide significantly better protection against virulent M. tuberculosis infection than naïve macrophages (46). Taken together, our current understanding of broad immune protection mediated by trained immunity and the epidemiologic evidence of long-lasting protection from viral infections of the respiratory tract, conferred by BCG vaccination, offer a rational biological basis for the potential protective effect of BCG vaccination from severe COVID-19. This response to BCG vaccination appears to be mediated by a mechanism different from the cellular immune response that confers protection from systemic TB in children (13).”

Brazil tops again 1214. US 802 but with 67K confirmation.

CA tops the death chart at 96. Confirmations are the usual suspects CA, FL, TX, AZ

Once again the usual counties LA, Maricopa, Miami-Dade and Harris.

LA county is showing a slight increase in death/confirmation.

Harris county another spike in confirmation 1081. Death hit new daily max death of 16.

ICU bed availability drop for TSA Houston under 100. We will see soon whether the ICU beds number get revised or we are in a real bind.

The US has out tested all the countries in the world by multiples. Wonder who paid for all this? Russia is second place in testing

US has now confirmed nearly 1% of the population in US has been infected by covid-19