More airplane studies – – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-3353_article

Main focus a flight from Milan to S. Korea – the interesting outcome not discussed much was the plane figure shows all seats filled yet the adjacent seated individual not sick other than row 59. Though highly contagious not that highly contagious….Missing notes health of people on plane particular those adjacent to sick people and those that got sick and HVAC of plane?

“Our findings suggest the following strategies for the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission on an aircraft. First, masks should be worn during the flight. Second, because contact with contaminated surfaces increases the risk for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among passengers, hand hygiene is necessary to prevent infections. Third, physical distance should be maintained before boarding and after disembarking from the aircraft.

Our research provides evidence of asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 on an airplane. Further attention is warranted to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 on aircraft. Our results suggest that stringent global regulations for the prevention of COVID-19 transmission on aircraft can prevent public health emergencies.”

This report states the odds of catching Covid on plane – https://www.fastcompany.com/90543434/is-it-safe-to-fly-yet-your-chances-of-catching-covid-19-on-an-airplane-might-be-lower-than-you-realize – the above would not conclude the odds he presented- but noted this is a two hour flight vs. the above which is 11 h. 9 hour accelerate the odds from 0.02% to 0.3%.

“Barnett found that on a completely full, short-haul, two-hour flight in the U.S., with three seats in a row on each side of the aisle, the chances of you catching SARS-CoV-2 are only 1 in 4,300. And it gets better. If the flight isn’t completely full and the middle seats in each row are left empty, the chances of catching SARS-CoV-2 drop to only 1 in 7,700.”

““is that the air in modern aircraft cabins is replaced with new fresh air every two to three minutes, and most planes are fitted with air filters designed to trap 99.99% of particles.””

Weekend reporting no country above 1K

FL leads the US at 148 followed by Ohio 147

Cuyahoga OH leads the county in the US in deaths at 34. Large confirmation change in Tarrant county TX 2628

Italy is starting to see more confirmations again. India is almost approach 100K confirmation per day.

Finally some thought has been placed in testing and they test the sewage vs. individual testing. We noted this all the way back in 5/26 https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/05/covid-5-26-20/

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/poop-tests-stop-covid-19-outbreak-university-arizona?

“By testing dorm wastewater for the coronavirus, the University of Arizona may have stomped out a potential outbreak before it could spread, The Washington Post reports. Several countries and some U.S. universities have been checking sewage for RNA from SARS-CoV-2 in people’s poop, which can signal infections shortly before clinical cases and deaths appear. In Arizona, wastewater from a student dormitory contained viral RNA just days after students—who had all tested negative for COVID-19—moved into their rooms this month. The university retested all 311 residents and dorm workers and found two students who were asymptomatic but positive for the virus; they were then quarantined, officials explained in a press conference. “If we had waited until they became symptomatic and they stayed in that dorm for days, or a week, or the whole incubation period, how many other people would have been infected?” said former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, now a faculty member at the university. That suggests sewage testing “is a very good early warning system,” environmental health scientist Kevin Thomas of the University of Queensland, St. Lucia, told The Washington Post.”

As an individual you want a test for peace of mind – but as a collective – individual testing is significant waste of resources and time as positive rates are not that high producing significant amount of negative results which become apparent if one would test sewage. There are blocks and areas that are not worthy of spending resources (manpower/capital). The virus is very virulent but precise. The virus does not rapidly spread beyond a certain range as noted in multiple studies. Sewage testing from multiple complexes such as dorms makes perfect sense. From there one can do individual testing as an area is identified. I do believe even larger geographical wastewater testing could probably be correlated with intensity of viral load enabling a estimation of spread particularly if you had a time series.

Public restrooms have been noted as places that present an issue as typically ventilation is poor and now proof flushing disperses particles into the room. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412020319942?via%3Dihub

“toilets are a daily necessity but may promote fecal-derived aerosol transmission if used improperly, particularly in hospitals (Ding et al., 2020). A fluid dynamics simulation suggests that during toilet flushing, massive upward transport of virus aerosol particles was observed, with 40–60% of particles rising above the toilet seat, leading to large-scale virus spread indoors (Li et al., 2020). Past tests confirmed that SARS-CoV-2 genetic material was found on toilets used by COVID-19 patients, in the air in hospital nurses’ stations, in air handling grate, on surfaces, on multiple air outlet vents, and in the air in patient rooms as well as airborne infection isolation rooms (AIIRs) in general wards (GW”

Not the best news for school openings – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2770149

“the study by Han et al13 highlights that a large percentage of infected children may be asymptomatic or presymptomatic despite infection with SARS CoV-2 and that both asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals may shed virus for prolonged periods of time (2 to 3 weeks) regardless of symptom”

As noted in the report they measure detectable virus – they did not quantify the level needed for infection – viral load likely will exist it is a matter of keeping it low enough not to get infected. A healthy individual should be able to withstand a certain level of viral load without being infected.

Countries in the news Spain, Indonesia, and Peru.

Spain is having another wave of confirmations similar to March. However what is different this time is the amount of deaths is very small – fatality rates under 1%

Indonesia confirmations are rising along with death – fatality rate around 4%

Peru as noted before confirmations and deaths have been rising and they were one of the first countries that went into lockdown. Implementation of lockdown and usefulness needs to be questioned. Selective and focused quarantining likely more effective and easier to implement.

Covid can be a blessing IF we think of it as a way to focus on our health/lifestyle so we can become healthier and build stronger immune systems. There is a direct and obvious connection and governments should recognize the cost of failing to regulate our vices of food will lead to significant societal cost. The leading death categories in the US is still Heart disease and Cancer currently over 3X more than covid. Rest in Power Chadwick Boseman who died of colon cancer at age 43 – https://www.cancer.org/latest-news/six-ways-to-lower-your-risk-for-colon-cancer.html#:~:text=Diets%20that%20include%20lots%20of,Get%20regular%20exercise.

“…Eat lots of vegetables, fruits, and whole grains. Diets that include lots of vegetables, fruits, and whole grains have been linked with a decreased risk of colon or rectal cancer. Eat less red meat (beef, pork, or lamb) and processed meats (hot dogs and some luncheon meats), which have been linked with an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

Get regular exercise. If you are not physically active, you may have a greater chance of developing colon or rectal cancer. Increasing your activity may help reduce your risk. “

“Watch your weight. Being overweight or obese increases your risk of getting and dying from colon or rectal cancer. Eating healthier and increasing your physical activity can help you control your weight.”

“Don’t smoke. Long-term smokers are more likely than non-smokers to develop and die from colon or rectal cancer. “

“Limit alcohol. Alcohol use has been linked with a higher risk of colorectal cancer. “

“Research shows that habits related to diet, weight, and exercise are linked to colorectal cancer risk, and those links are stronger than for other types of cancer. Changing some of these lifestyle habits may be hard. But making the changes can also lower the risk for many other types of cancer, as well as other serious diseases like heart disease and diabetes.”

You are not helpless in preventing deaths beyond covid – there is some personal responsibilities you have to take upon yourself to shift the odds into your favor.

US below 1K – India leads the death chart

Perhaps the homeopathic drug in Gujarat India is working as noted https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/08/covid-8-24-20/ Deaths are extremely low and being so close to the center of India’s leading death state Maharashtra is a testament.

Texas leads the states at 172

Texas death are scattered across the state. LA CA leads the county deaths at 31

Now the BBC is picking up on ventilation/HVAC as being the key – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/explainers-53917432

“According to workplace regulations set up before the pandemic , everyone should get 10 litres of fresh air every second, and that matters more than ever now.

So if a place seems stuffy, just turn around and leave, says Dr Hywel Davies , technical director of the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers.

He says that it’s vital to have a flow of clean air:

"If you’ve got someone who’s infected in a building, and you’re bringing in plenty of outside air, you’re diluting whatever infectious material they’re giving off. You’re reducing the risk of other people becoming infected."”

“"Having 100% outside air or close to 100% is a good thing," says Prof Cath Noakes of the University of Leeds and chair of the environmental panel of the government’s SAGE advisers, speaking in a personal capacity.

"The more fresh air, the less you’re running the risk of recirculating the virus through the building."

The precise mix is decided by the building’s managers, who may be working for the owners or the tenants. .

The drawback to running 100% fresh air is the cost – the incoming air has to be heated in winter and cooled in summer, all of which requires energy.”

“…swabbing the filters could reveal if there’s someone infected working in a building.

In South Korea, a call centre on the 11th floor of an office building saw one person infect more than 90 others.

If the filters had been checked more frequently, the presence of the virus might have been spotted sooner.

Prof van den Wymelenberg says data from filters can "show us where to punch and when to punch" in tackling infections.”

Now that’s a good idea – check the filters for virus therefore you know if someone has/is infected in your building.

Treatment for Covid could have been already around – perhaps cats are just as useful as dogs – https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-antiviral-cat-coronavirus-sars-cov-.html

“Researchers at the University of Alberta are preparing to launch clinical trials of a drug used to cure a deadly disease caused by a coronavirus in cats that they expect will also be effective as a treatment for humans against COVID-19. "In just two months, our results have shown that the drug is effective at inhibiting viral replication in cells with SARS-CoV-2," said Joanne Lemieux, a professor of biochemistry in the Faculty of Medicine & Dentistry.

"This drug is very likely to work in humans, so we’re encouraged that it will be an effective antiviral treatment for COVID-19 patients."

The drug is a protease inhibitor that interferes with the virus’s ability to replicate, thus ending an infection. Proteases are key to many body functions and are common targets for drugs to treat everything from high blood pressure to cancer and HIV.”

Continued analysis of the data from https://healthdata.gov/dataset/conditions-contributing-deaths-involving-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-age-group-and

Previously we looked at Death per Capita by State and Age Group Finding Risk of death in the 45-54 or under is quite limited relative to other risk in life even if multiplying current deaths by 4. https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/08/covid-8-26-20/

We also showed different states still produce very similar death profile by age category – other than NY showing much higher deaths in the older category. https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/08/covid-8-25-20/

Today we look at the death by condition. This data set I believe is the confirmation covid patients and the associated death attribution. Many are concerned that covid is being over attributed to deaths. The data doesn’t show it is extremely overreported. However missing from the condition group I find interesting is cancer related deaths but likely this rolled up into the other issues e.g. lung cancer – respiratory disease. The data says only 26.6% of confirmed covid patients older than 45 deaths is directly attributed to covid. I could be wrong on deciphering the data but that seems to be the only reasonable interpretation of the data. Total deaths for US for all category 580K (too low for total deaths as 2.8 Million people die a year – just covid 153K which is ball park to the 180K number – likely timing).

US the leader in death Brazil drops below 1K.

Texas lead deaths at 225

Death in TX is spread around in the state unlike other states which has been very focused. The leading county in death is LA at 38.

The big 4 counties continue to show positive results – decline confirmation and deaths on a 7 day moving average.

Status quo in the world – still confirmations exist no matter how much they isolate e.g. New Zealand.

Solutions exist to reduce viral load – and they are not astronomically expensive and could be more affordable if mass produced – closing the economy vs. spending on devices to make places more safe would seem to be a better option – https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiegold/2020/08/25/columbia-university-far-uvc-light-study-shows-promise-as-wellness-design-based-covid-killer/#49b658f14e83

“The director of the university’s Center for Radiological Research identified a wavelength called far-UVC that kills these superbugs without penetrating human skin. He shared the concept in a 2017 TED Talk.”

“In a study published in June, the news was extremely promising: “Far-UVC Light Safely Kills Airborne Coronaviruses,” preliminary findings declared in the study headline. “Based on our results, continuous airborne disinfection with far-UVC light at the current regulatory limit could greatly reduce the level of airborne virus in indoor environments occupied by people,” Brenner reported

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67211-2

“Germicidal ultraviolet light, typically at 254 nm, is effective in this context but, used directly, can be a health hazard to skin and eyes. By contrast, far-UVC light (207–222 nm) efficiently kills pathogens potentially without harm to exposed human tissues.”

“Based on the beta-HCoV-OC43 results, continuous far-UVC exposure in occupied public locations at the current regulatory exposure limit (~3 mJ/cm2/hour) would result in ~90% viral inactivation in ~8 minutes, 95% in ~11 minutes, 99% in ~16 minutes and 99.9% inactivation in ~25 minutes. Thus while staying within current regulatory dose limits, low-dose-rate far-UVC exposure can potentially safely provide a major reduction in the ambient level of airborne coronaviruses in occupied public locations.”

“In conclusion, we have shown that very low doses of far-UVC light efficiently kill airborne human coronaviruses carried by aerosols. A dose as low as 1.2 to 1.7 mJ/cm2 of 222-nm light inactivates 99.9% of the airborne human coronavirus tested from both genera beta and alpha, respectively. As all human coronaviruses have similar genomic size, a key determinant of radiation sensitivity27, it is likely that far-UVC light will show comparable inactivation efficiency against other human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2.”

Interested to see if there were a long term study at the lower nm…. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/php.13269

“We therefore investigated the long‐term effects of 222‐nm UVC on skin using a highly photocarcinogenic phenotype mice that lack xeroderma pigmentosum complementation group A (Xpa‐) gene, which is involved in repairing of CPDs. CPDs formation was recognized only uppermost layer of epidermis even with high dose of 222‐nm UVC exposure. No tumors were observed in Xpa‐knockout mice and wild‐type mice by repetitive irradiation with 222‐nm UVC, using a protocol which had shown to produce tumor in Xpa‐knockout mice irradiated with broad‐band UVB. Furthermore, erythema and ear swelling were not observed in both genotype mice following 222‐nm UVC exposure. Our data suggest that 222‐nm UVC lamps can be safely used for sterilizing human skin as far as the perspective of skin cancer development.”

“Ultraviolet radiation C (UVC) is defined as 100–280 nm wavelengths UV. UVC from solar UV cannot reach the surface of the earth, because this range of UV is absorbed by ozone layer. Germicidal lamps that primarily emit 254‐nm UVC have been utilized for sterilization because this wavelength is effective for killing bacteria. In spite of the usefulness of 254‐nm UVC lamps for sterilization, it is well known to be harmful to skin and eyes, causing erythema and keratitis, respectively. Its most critical effects on humans and experimental animals are skin carcinogenicity caused by genotoxicity”

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10715762.2019.1603378

“the effects of 222-nm UV light exposure to the eye are not fully known. We evaluated acute corneal damage induced by 222- and 254-nm UV light in albino rats. Under deep anaesthesia, 6-week-old Sprague–Dawley albino rats were exposed to UV light. The exposure levels of corneal radiation were 30, 150, and 600 mJ/cm2. Epithelial defects were detected by staining with fluorescein. Superficial punctate keratitis developed in corneas exposed to more than 150 mJ/cm2 of UV light, and erosion was observed in corneas exposed to 600 mJ/cm2 of UV light. Haematoxylin and eosin staining also showed corneal epithelial defects in eyes exposed to 254-nm UV light. However, no damage developed in corneas exposed to 222-nm UV light. Cyclobutane pyrimidine dimer-positive cells were observed only in normal corneas and those exposed to 254-nm UV light. Although some epithelial cells were stained weakly in normal corneas, squamous epithelial cells were stained moderately, and the epithelial layer that was detached from the cornea exposed to 600 mJ/cm2 of light was stained intensely in corneas exposed to 254-nm UV light. In the current study, no corneal damage was induced by 222-nm UV light, which suggested that 222-nm UV light may not harm rat eyes within the energy range and may be useful for sterilising or preventing infection in the future.”

I went shopping for this light – but only found a TX manufacturer but price $1500+ (https://www.larsonelectronics.com/category/57/intrinsically-safe-lights) – need to make sure getting the far UVC light 222nm.

If they were mass produced the price would decrease rapidly – I am sure if a school district or broad govt building purchase was made this cost could become affordable for the masses. I don’t think you would want to live in a completely sterilized room as your immune system will likely be weakened but IF you had guest over or going to public place given covid I would want that place to be sterilized.

So tired of hearing about all these quick test – https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/26/21403432/fda-authorizes-binaxnow-covid-19-test-abbott-cheap-fast

Wow the Japanese have been busy – deploy the fastest supercomputer to end the mask debate? – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/26/non-woven-masks-better-to-stop-covid-19-says-japanese-supercomputer

“Face masks made from non-woven fabric are more effective at blocking the spread of Covid-19 via airborne respiratory droplets than other types that are commonly available, according to modelling in Japan by the world’s fastest supercomputer. Fugaku, which can perform more than 415 quadrillion computations a second, conducted simulations involving three types of mask, and found that non-woven masks were better than those made of cotton and polyester at blocking spray emitted when the wearer coughs, the Nikkei Asian Review said.

Non-woven masks refer to the disposable medical masks that are commonly worn in Japan during the flu season, and now during the coronavirus pandemic.

They are made from polypropylene, and are relatively cheap to make in large numbers. Woven masks, including those used in the Fugaku simulation, are typically made from fabrics such as cotton, and appeared in some countries after non-woven versions were temporarily in short supply.

They can be reused and generally offer more breathability but, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), should be washed in soap or detergent and water of at least 60C at least once a day.

The non-woven variety blocked nearly all droplets emitted in a cough, according to experts at Riken, a government-backed research institute in the western city of Kobe.

Cotton and polyester masks were slightly less effective, but were still able to block at least 80% of droplets.

Non-woven “surgical” masks were slightly less effective at blocking smaller droplets measuring 20 micrometres or less, with more than 10% escaping through gaps between the edge of the mask and the face, according to the computer model.

One micrometre is one millionth of a metre.

Polyester and cotton masks allowed up to 40% of the smaller droplets to escape.

“What is most dangerous is not wearing a mask,” Tsubokura said, according to the Nikkei. “It’s important to wear a mask, even a less effective cloth one.”

Fugaku, which was named the world’s fastest supercomputer last month, has also run simulations on how respiratory droplets spread in partitioned office spaces and on packed trains when the carriage windows are open.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ozone-idUSKBN25M0SO

I noted this back in April 17th that I use an ozone generator to disinfect and deodorize. Once again I do feel this is quite obvious and not worthy of so much research as O3 is not stable and oxidation is inevitable – any organic cell in vicinity will likely get oxidized. You do need to take precautions using it- it can also cause materials to breakdown early.

“Scientists at Fujita Health University told a news conference they had proven that ozone gas in concentrations of 0.05 to 0.1 parts per million (ppm), levels considered harmless to humans, could kill the virus.

The experiment used an ozone generator in a sealed chamber with a sample of coronavirus. The potency of the virus declined by more than 90% when subjected to low level ozone for 10 hours.”

“A recent study at the Georgia Institute of Technology showed that ozone may be effective in disinfecting gowns, goggles and other medical protective equipment.

Fujita Medical University Hospital, in Aichi prefecture central Japan, has installed ozone generators to reduce infection in waiting areas and patient rooms.”

The quest for age breakout of deaths by covid lead us to the CDC statistics. https://healthdata.gov/dataset/conditions-contributing-deaths-involving-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-age-group-and

Filtered out for Coronavirus Disease 2019 total US death 153K….ok not as high as JH which is more 175K – perhaps just timing….

So now on a state level we can see your chances of dying from covid on a per capita basis. I had to graph it on a log scale just so you can see the low end range. For perspective your chances of dying in a car crash is around 1 in 106 or roughly 1%. Under the age of 84 the odds of you catching (obviously you need to get it to die from it) and then dying of covid is currently less than 1%. This chart also highlights the awful policy NY did in the beginning with the 2.87% rate in the 84+ category more than 2X than any other state below. If you are 45-54 you odds of dying is equivalent to dying is equivalent to dying from choking on food or bicycle accident. Granted this is today stat so lets say the number rises 4X from current level then the risk is equivalent to somewhere being a pedestrian and/or riding on a motorcycle. Lifetime odds of death – https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/

US death back over 1K

TX back in the lead

Harris county lead TX at 42. Top county in the country LA CA at 47.

Harris county data reporting is very sporadic. The 7 Day MA smooths it out and shows deaths are down over 10 deaths from peak.

Harris county never saw ICU beds hit the dire predictions.

No major trend changes in global counts.

Get the bad news out of the way first – https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-reinfected-hong-kong-covid-19-study-a9685571.html

“Researchers at Hong Kong University’s department of microbiology said genetic sequencing of the virus showed that a Hong Kong man was infected twice by different versions of the coronavirus months apart.

According to the study, the patient was a 33-year-old man who was in good health. When he was first infected, he suffered a cough, sore throat, fever and headache for three days. He had a test that confirmed Covid-19 and he was hospitalised on 29 March. He was discharged on 14 April after two negative swab tests.

Four months later, he was returning to Hong Kong from Spain via the UK when he tested positive during entry screening at Hong Kong airport on 15 August. He was hospitalised again but had no symptoms throughout.”

“Our findings suggest that Sars-CoV-2 may persist in the global human population as is the case for other common-cold associated human coronaviruses, even if patients have acquired immunity via natural infection. “Since the immunity can be short-lasting after natural infection, vaccination should also be considered for those with one episode of infection.“Patients with previous Covid-19 infection should also comply with epidemiological control measures such as universal masking and social distancing.” ”

The silver lining is the second time he didn’t have any symptoms but was a carrier.

It would seem China is also far into the vaccine development. This should not be a surprise given authoritarian govt are more efficient at implementation and they probably had more data on covid than anyone initially. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/24/asia/china-vaccine-doctors-workers-intl/index.html

“China has been using an experimental coronavirus vaccine on people who work in "high risk" professions since July, including front line medical professionals and border inspectors, a senior official from the national health commission revealed over the weekend.”

“This isn’t the first time the country has approved the use of an experimental vaccine. In June, the Chinese government approved the use of a different vaccine candidate for the country’s military.

That vaccine — which was jointly developed by the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology, part of the Chinese government’s Academy of Military Medical Sciences, and vaccine company CanSino Biologics — was given "military specially-needed drug approval" by China’s central military commission in June. The special permission lasts for one year and will only apply to military personnel. China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of vaccines, and can supply more than 1 billion doses of a vaccine annually from 40 manufacturers across the country, according to the China Human Vaccine Industry Report 2018-2022.

China currently has more coronavirus vaccine candidates in human trials than any other nation.”

Age distribution data for Covid – looks like there is at least one common theme among the state data – age distribution of deaths….more to come

Another US day below 500 deaths

California leads death at 82

Riverside CA lead the counties death count at 45

HVAC issues have been mentioned in this report going back all the way to early April – yet here we are still complexed and amazed – use your google translator to convert to English the latest on an outbreak at a Starbucks in Korea – https://www.insight.co.kr/news/299857

56 confirmed cases arise from a Starbucks- they note “oddly enough none of the employees at the time were infected” – its not oddly just like the Chinese restaurant study the staff doesn’t sit at the table and talk with people for 30min+ Plus in this case the employees also wore mask and gloves. IF you are in a public indoor space do what you can to reduce your time there plus reduce viral load entering your body by wearing a mask. A better mask produces better result but even cotton covering is a substantial improvement to none. Public spaces need to do what they can to reduce viral load. R&D and testing needs to be done on the various solutions out there and guidelines should be set in terms of most effective to least.

India state of Gujarat looks to be pushing their homeopathic drug – The Gujarat health department has said it distributed homeopathic drug Arsenicum Album-30 to more than half of the state’s population as prophylaxis since March after the outbreak of COVID-19. – https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/ahmedabad/covid-19-homeopathic-drug-given-to-half-of-gujarat-population-since-march-6566548/

“In its presentation made before the World Health Organisation on August 20 on Gujarat’s COVID-19 prevention strategy, the health department said it distributed Arsenicum Album-30 to 3.48 crore people, which is more than half of the state’s population of 6.6 crore.

There is no scientific evidence that the drug works against COVID-19, a fact stressed not only by medical scientists but by some homeopathic practitioners themselves.”

“The state government claimed that 99.69 per cent of people who availed AYUSH remedies as prophylaxis during their quarantine period tested negative for coronavirus.

However, a clinical trial related to the prophylaxis nature of Arsenicum Album-30 for coronavirus in the state has not yet yielded any conclusive result, an official said.

Gujarat Principal Secretary, Health, Jayanti Ravi on Sunday said the government has some reason to believe about theefficacy of Arsenicum Album-30 medicine, as out of thousands of quarantined people who were given the dosage of Arsenicum Album-30, “99.69 per cent eventually tested negative for coronavirus”.

“Even 0.3 per cent who tested positive had only mild symptoms. We have prima facie reason to believe in some effectiveness of Arsenicum Album-30 against coronavirus. But to actually establish this, we need more rigorous analysis,” Ravi said.””

Weekend reporting US below 500 deaths

Texas leads the way at 118 deaths

Leading death in county for TX is Hidalgo at 20 – leading for the country Broward FL at 25. Large confirmation in Dallas area 1418

The big 4 counties looks to have peaked in confirmations. Cannot conclude that deaths has peaked just yet but at least flat lined

India fatality rate has been always under 2%

I want to start off with what I considered the garage award winning engineer solution to reduce viral load which balances cost, availability, and effectiveness – https://www.texairfilters.com/a-variation-on-the-box-fan-with-merv-13-filter-air-cleaner/

“Airflow from the fan was 580 feet per minute”

We can probably boost the effectiveness by having the filters made with materials that deactivate the virus – https://www.ascendmaterials.com/innovations/acteev-technology/acteev-protect-antimicrobial-technology

which I surmise will increase the cost by no more than $30.

Air cleaning is picking up steam – now you see articles discussing efficacy – https://fortune.com/2020/08/22/air-purifier-protect-from-covid-19-coronavirus/ – and noted the EPA has a statement on Covid and air cleaners – https://www.epa.gov/coronavirus/air-cleaners-hvac-filters-and-coronavirus-covid-19

“When used properly, air cleaners and HVAC filters can help reduce airborne contaminants including viruses in a building or small space. By itself, air cleaning or filtration is not enough to protect people from exposure to the virus that causes COVID-19. When used along with other best practices recommended by CDC and others, filtration can be part of a plan to protect people indoors”

Its all about reducing viral load not going to zero – as going to zero is being a hermit and outweighing life for living (think on that). At the same time we should be cautious about living in such a clean environment as this could be what caused us to be so fragile to covid. The immune system is best developed when young. My hope is the kids of covid will not be so fragile decades from now due to our ultraclean living currently.

One air cleaning technology I came across and drew my attention was Thermodynamic TSS Technology from airfree – https://www.airfree.com/en-US/Technology – Basically a heat exchanger at high temp creating convection which when the air passes the virus/germs get heated up to 400F – outcome decomposed microscopic ash – the concern would be volume flow rate within area seems low since no fan – However they do have papers to read – my favorite would be the following https://www.airfree.com/Files/Billeder/AirFree/Testes/Soto%20et%20al%20scientific%20article%20.pdf

Probably one of the worst conditions is a pig farm and obviously if the baby pigs are dying the farmers are losing potential revenue. They created a control group and group with the filter technology and results showed a reduction in mortality, diarrhea, and increase weight gain.

I went ahead and bought one for my son in college given living with other people for use in his room. Interesting to note they say the heat generated in the room is equivalent to a 155lb person being in the room – based on their wattage they assume a person to generate around 1kW in 24 hour period.

Unfortunately I have been agreeing with the following assessment – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/22/covid-19-around-forever-former-uk-chief-scientific-adviser-mark-walport-vaccine

“Coronavirus will be around “for ever” and people are likely to need regular vaccinations against it, a former chief scientific adviser to the UK government has said.

Prof Mark Walport, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), likened the virus to influenza, as he said repeat inoculations on a global scale would almost certainly be required to control it.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme coronavirus was not “going to be a disease like smallpox which could be eradicated by vaccination”.

“This is a virus that is going to be with us for ever in some form or another and almost certainly will require repeated vaccinations,” he said. “So, a bit like flu, people will need revaccination at regular intervals.””

With that logic its best we focus on our lifestyle – to create and build a strong immunity – reduce comorbidities – investing in society health will pay off significantly in many ways. Each and everyone of us can contribute and be personally responsible for making healthy decisions from diet to exercise.

Eat local and fresh – https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/covid-19-infected-frozen-food-can-cause-virus-outbreaks-report/article32421192.ece

“According to a new study, Covid-19 infected frozen food can cause the outbreaks as the virus doesn’t get killed in freezing temperatures, Telegraph UK reported.

The researchers induced the virus in pieces of salmon, chicken, and pork. The infected meat was then stored in cool temperatures. The researchers also kept the food in the storage condition which is used during the supply of frozen food to different countries – between 4C, which is standard refrigeration temperature, and minus 20C, which is standard freezing temperature.”

Weekend reporting are much better – ignorance is bliss – US death fall below 1K – 983

CA leads the way at 185

San Bernardino leads the way at 62

Big 4 counties continue to improve – Maricopa AZ now over 10% of population has confirmed covid – once again so if you are out and about in either LA or Maricopa and you see 10 people 1 of them currently has or had covid.

As noted in the frozen food article – it is extremely hard to stay at 0 confirmations unless you totally isolate and this includes trade.

The biggest challenge of covid is ourselves – the human behavior aspect of things… https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/health/syracuse-students-suspended-in-latest-crackdown-by-colleges/2397695/?

“Syracuse University has suspended 23 students following a large on-campus gathering, the latest example of college crackdowns on the kind of socializing that can spread the coronavirus and sink plans for in-person learning this semester.

Syracuse officials announced the disciplinary action late Thursday and said they were reviewing security camera footage to identify additional students seen on video crowding into the campus Quad Wednesday night in violation of rules limiting crowds and requiring masks.

The gathering drew a sharp rebuke earlier from Vice Chancellor J. Michael Haynie, who said participants had undercut efforts to make residential learning possible.”

“Purdue University suspended 36 students for going to a party. Other suspensions have been reported at Virginia Tech, St. Olaf College in Minnesota and Radford University in Virginia.

On Friday, Northeastern University sent warning letters to 115 freshmen who had responded “Hell Yeah” to another student’s Instagram poll on whether they planned to have or go to parties, spokeswoman Renata Nyul said.”

“Penn State on Thursday suspended a fraternity for hosting a party that violated the school’s COVID-19 ban on Greek gatherings. Videos and photos showed the Pennsylvania Lambda chapter of Phi Kappa Psi hosting an indoor gathering of more than 15 people, university officials said.”

Restricting the youth is going to be a uphill battle…but relative to what they had in 1918- being a restricted youth then vs now is immense – the kids now still have social media which is some essences is social distancing. Inevitably kids need to learn how to communicate with social media platform.

Got two products of interest – go long pineapples – https://nypost.com/2020/08/21/this-pineapple-derived-cancer-drug-could-help-treat-covid-19/?

“This drug includes components that dissolve the spike that COVID-19 uses to infect other cells in humans. A trial with participating patients could start in a Melbourne hospital as soon as next month.

Here’s the fascinating thing about this drug: One of its core agents, Australian media has noted, is a pineapple stem enzyme. It’s called Bromelain and is already valued for medicinal purposes that include treating burn victims.

Australia’s Herald Sun has reported that BromAc has been trialed in 36 cancer patients, where positive benefits were observed. It’s been prepared in the form of a nasal spray that researchers want to use to stop the virus from spreading to the patient’s throat and lungs. What Morris and his team are especially hoping is that this drug could be taken at the first sign of the coronavirus in order to stop it cold.

“We’ve taken a drug in development for more than a decade and asked whether it can be adapted for treating people infected with COVID-19,” Morris said in a statement earlier this week. “Our lab results show the new drug renders the COVID-19 spike ineffective, stopping it from infecting other cells. We hope the results will show the treatment can confine COVID to the nose and throat and prevent lung infection, and stop infected patients from passing on the live virus.”

And an ointment – both focused on the nasal cavity – I searched for this product but couldn’t find it….

https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/us-fda-approved-ointment-found-to-treat-kill-viral-infections-including-covid-19-6703831.htm

“US pharma company has successfully tested a Food and Drug Administration-approved over the counter ointment as the first line of defence against the deadly coronavirus that has so far killed over eight lakh people globally.

Scientists associated with the project said the FDA-registered non-prescription over the counter (OTC) ointment has been proven to prevent, treat and kill viral infections including coronavirus.

As per the lab report states, no infectious virus was detected after 30 seconds of T3X treatment, the pharma company said in a statement.”

US deaths lead the deaths yesterday at 1108

TX leads the total state count at 244

However as noted so many times aggregation at state level is too large – the above would say allocate money to TX to stop the issue – however the effectiveness of that would be very limited given the dispersion of the 244 deaths. In fact the leading county for covid deaths was LA (45) at almost 2X of the leading TX county (Harris 25).

The big 4 view still shows some good signs – slowing confirmation and flattening death growth.

Recent confirmation spike in S. Korea – leading to growing social distancing rules – https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKBN25I04W

“In Seoul and some surrounding cities, the government has reimposed second-tier social distancing rules, including restricting large gatherings, banning in-person church meetings while closing nightclubs, karaoke bars, buffets and cyber cafes.

The same guidelines will be imposed on other areas across the country effective Sunday. However, in some areas with fewer infections, the guidelines would be recommended rather than obligatory.”

Collateral damage from covid-19 quarantine is real. As noted before the leading US death is Heart disease 647K/yr and followed by Cancer 599K/yr (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm)– both a function lifestyle and both very time dependent on diagnosis to be able to be preventive. The current US total death from covid-19 stands at 174K ytd – much data also indicates this is function of lifestyle.

This paper shows that there are an excess of cardiac arrest occurring in the community as those are not going to visit their doctors and doing their usual health routines that could prevent heart attacks before they happen – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7293523/

“Out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) were 2.2-fold higher in 2020 compared with averaged historical controls over the same 2-week period. ∗p < 0.005 versus peri-mandate and pre-mandate; †p = 0.037 versus peri-mandate, p = 0.002 versus pre-mandate; ‡p = 0.002. EMS = emergency medical services.”

“Across-the-board restrictions on nonemergent procedures enacted by states, hospitals, and cardiovascular society guidelines may lead to delays in diagnosis and definitive treatment. Finally, patient fear of contracting COVID-19 while seeking care may lead to avoidance of lifesaving therapies.”

Missing in the analysis is OHCA fatality rate – I presume by simple logic it must be higher than heart attack at hospital.

Finally some closure – its not about singing per se – but the VOLUME of air – so the louder talker can be just as bad as singing – so you can still sing just really quietly – perhaps quarantine rules need to be similar to the movie A Quiet Place (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Quiet_Place_(film)#:~:text=A%20Quiet%20Place%20is%20a,by%20and%20starring%20John%20Krasinski.) – you cant talk and on a long enough timeline the virus would just be eliminated since it cant spread and find a vulnerable host https://chemrxiv.org/articles/preprint/Comparing_the_Respirable_Aerosol_Concentrations_and_Particle_Size_Distributions_Generated_by_Singing_Speaking_and_Breathing/12789221

“At the quietest volume (50 to 60 dB), neither singing (p=0.19) or speaking (p=0.20) were significantly different to breathing. At the loudest volume (90 to 100 dB), a statistically significant difference (p<1×10-5) is observed between singing and speaking, but with singing only generating a factor of between 1.5 and 3.4 more aerosol mass. Guidelines should create recommendations based on the volume and duration of the vocalisation, the number of participants and the environment in which the activity occurs, rather than the type of vocalisation. Mitigations such as the use of amplification and increased attention to ventilation should be employed where practicable.”

Brazil leads the pack at 1204

Leading state in the US is Texas at 240 deaths

Leading death county was LA at 54. There is something going on with the data in MA – big reclassification in confirmation and then also big jump in deaths.

LA county is now over 10% of per capita confirmed – so if you bump into 10 people in LA 1 of them will likely have covid.

NZ confirmations not getting back to 0. I guess they celebrated their success too soon.