Interesting and optimistic article on our immune system in regards to coronaviruses – https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7

“Researchers have been rummaging through results from the Common Cold Study and others like it, while scrambling to understand the human immune response to SARS-CoV-2 using animals and cell cultures, along with the latest molecular techniques. They have catalogued antibody and immune-cell responses with uncommon speed, determined which are likely to be the most effective, and designed vaccines and therapies that, in animal studies and small human studies, provoke at least short-term immune responses. But there is no quick and simple experiment that can firmly determine whether immunity will be effective or lasting. It is just too soon to know.”

“So far, reports of reinfection have lacked sufficient information about the person’s immune responses to rule out other possibilities, he says.”

“Long-term immunity can vary by type and also by degree of response. Vaccine developers often hope to elicit what’s known as sterilizing immunity, a response, typically mediated by antibodies, that can rapidly prevent a returning virus from gaining ground in the body. But not all vaccines or infections elicit the neutralizing antibodies required for sterilizing immunity. HIV, for example, rarely induces neutralizing antibodies2, a fact that has complicated efforts to develop vaccines against it.

The signs so far for SARS-CoV-2 are encouraging. Several teams of researchers were quick to isolate neutralizing antibodies from people infected with the virus3; most could mount such an antibody response within days of testing positive. And several vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2 provoke a strong antibody response, a positive sign that the vaccines might generate immunity.

But some scientists have caveats about the preliminary data. Antibody responses tended to be highest in people with the most severe infection. Those with mild infections — which is to say most people who have had COVID-19 — sometimes produced small amounts of neutralizing antibody. This pattern is often seen with viruses: the longer, more severe infections are more likely to produce strong, durable responses. This is one reason that common-cold coronaviruses sometimes don’t yield long-lasting immunity, says Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California.”

“Lessons learnt from other viruses also give reasons to be optimistic that immunity to SARS-CoV-2 will be lasting. T cells against the virus responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) have been found 17 years after infection7. Also, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to mutate as rapidly as the influenza viruses, notes Barreiro, which change so frequently that fresh vaccination is needed each year.

The Common Cold Unit study found little sign of hope for sterilizing immunity for its common-cold coronavirus, but the results also suggested that immunity could be strong enough to reduce or even eliminate symptoms. Sterilizing immunity for COVID-19 would be ideal, because it would reduce the risk of people with minimal symptoms spreading the infection widely. But at this point, a vaccine that could reduce mortality would likely still be helpful, says Alessandro Sette, an immunologist also at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology”

Finally more discussion on ventilation – article actually highlights a target for ventilation – https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/8/19/21364031/coronavirus-air-purifiers-filter-hepa-merv-ventilation

“Making places safer, instead, should mean improving air quality. But “have you ever heard a restaurant reopening announce they’ve improved ventilation or increased ventilation?” Lidia Morawska, an engineer and the director of the International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health at Queensland University of Technology, recently told me. “No.”

Ventilation concerns are not limited to restaurants and schools. Recently, a report from the University of California San Francisco noted “exceedingly poor ventilation” at the San Quentin State Prison, which saw a huge outbreak of more than 2,200 cases.”

““Cleaning the air is at least as important as cleaning surfaces, but you do it very differently,” says Linsey Marr, a Virginia Tech engineer who studies the airborne spread of viruses. “We end up having to breathe whatever it is we spray. And if it’s harmful to the virus, it’s likely it’s also harmful to us. So we need to take a totally different approach.””

“The first is to simply ventilate, or increase the amount of outdoor air in indoor spaces, and to make sure the inside air is replaced by outside air several times per hour.

“So the air in your home probably changes over once every hour or two hours,” Marr says. “We’re aiming for an air exchange rate of, like, six per hour.” That recommendation, she says, comes from studies of tuberculosis transmission. (Tuberculosis is not SARS-CoV-2. TB is much more contagious and is thought to be able to spread farther and stay longer in the air.)”

“Again, more ventilation may be “safer,” but it’s not “safe.”

The easiest way to increase ventilation: open windows. This will increase the amount of outside air (which does not have virus in it) coming in to dilute indoor air (which may have virus in it). The less concentrated the virus is in the air, the less likely it is to infect people.”

“One indirect way to do this is to purchase a carbon dioxide detector (which are around $100 online) to give you a rough sense of air quality. When we exhale, we exhale CO2. “How much CO2 is in an indoor space is basically a metric of how much air other people have expelled in that space,” Jose-Luis Jimenez, a chemistry professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, says. So high and rising CO2 levels in a space can be a sign it’s not properly ventilated.” (I just order one that measures VOC and others – and yes around $100)

“In commercial settings, some building operators might be able to adjust the amount of fresh air pumped into a building’s ventilation system. During the pandemic, they should do this. But, as Miller explains, “many [commercial HVAC] systems don’t run on 100 percent outside air.” It’s too energy-intensive. “You can’t provide air conditioning and heat with 100 percent outside air,” she says. So, in some cases, there is a limit to how much outside air an HVAC system can mix into a building.” (Seriously the cost of electricity at least in TX is well worth not spreading the virus – I have a facility 100% fresh air unit and utility bill been like $1200 a month in summer (4800sf) – so lets say 2X than we are talking about $600 a month to make a facility safer – hmmm seems reasonable to me)

“It’s important to know here that ventilating schools has benefits that are broader than its pandemic applications. Kids need to breathe healthy air (the dangers of air quality for children’s’ health and cognitive well-being are as clear and critical as ever). And allowing them to do so will require huge investments.”

“It starts with getting a good air filter. For this, the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers suggests using filters with a MERV-13 designation or higher.”

“The other consideration: These higher-quality filters need to be replaced more frequently as they “fill up” with more stuff more quickly and it becomes harder to push air through the filter. Also (this list of caveats and considerations is getting long, right?) you need to buy a unit that’s sized correctly for the space you are in. The filtering unit should ideally, along with ventilation, lead to six or more air exchanges per hour.”

“Experts also worry that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is not being helpful enough in its air quality recommendations. For instance, the CDC recommends that schools “ensure ventilation systems operate properly and increase circulation of outdoor air as much as possible, for example by opening windows and doors.” But they don’t even weigh in on the merits of putting a HEPA air purifier in each classroom.

“It would carry more credibility,” Jimenez says, if the CDC would discuss their use rather than leave the conversation in the hands of independent scientists speaking for themselves. “When I was talking to a school district, they were all saying, ‘Well, the CDC doesn’t recommend air cleaners.’” In Jimenez’s mind, air cleaners are essential. But it’s hard to get the message across without a huge institution like the CDC echoing it.”

““The best possible case is that you reduce risk of Covid-19 and you make your indoor air quality better,” Siegel says. “The worst possible case is that you make indoor air quality better but don’t appreciably change Covid-19 risk.”

YEP…WE NEED GOVT GUIDELINES to push business to invest to be able to mark and deem their institutions as “Safer” – and/or invested to the standards to create a more safe environment. Note I am not asking a mandate just guidelines and public awareness that one can create a more safe environments.

US leading the death count again at 1356

TX leading death at 256

However when we look at the county level the big leader is Maricopa AZ at 85 deaths. Texas leading county is Harris at 45

The positive thing is deaths in the major counties are plateauing and the confirmations continue to decline

On the Harris county hospital front – certain not as dire as it was announced to be. ICU beds were always available.

Looks like China can make confirmations drop quickly

Perhaps its more to do with dust particles than just breathing – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17888-w

“…we conclude that airborne particulate matter from a non-respiratory source is able to transmit influenza virus through the air to a susceptible host.”

“These results show that dried influenza virus remains viable in the environment, on materials like paper tissues and on the bodies of living animals, long enough to be aerosolized on non-respiratory dust particles that can transmit infection through the air to new mammalian hosts.”
“Our data suggest that aerosolized fomites may contribute to influenza virus transmission in animal models of human influenza, if not among humans themselves, with important but understudied implications for public health.”

This still supports the idea likely being inside is not a good thing. Also still supports mask wearing and adaption of HVAC. Need to dispose of tissues more carefully. Similar to my thesis – that the virus was coalescing with droplets – it looks like they can very much coalesce with dust particles and eventually if you are in a room with a fan and someone exhaling the virus onto the dust particles eventually it could be inhaled by you and eventually the level reach a level of infection.

On the health front since is the most personal accountability for the prevention and eventual demise of covid – not very popular message I suspect for many – https://www.wsj.com/articles/men-urged-to-limit-alcohol-to-one-drink-a-day-amid-new-concerns-11597688916

“Men should consume no more than one alcoholic drink a day, according to a federal committee’s recommendations for new U.S. dietary guidelines.”

I will agree with this message – https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/health/our-underlying-epidemic-is-chronic-junk-diets-its-time-to-eat-real-food/647463.article

“In a sane, wise world he’d spell that out more graphically with a simple “If you eat junk, you’ll get sick” message. Coronavirus has held our attention, but the underlying epidemic is chronic metabolic ill-health. Time for a new slogan: ’Eat real food. Save lives.’”

Back to the midweek high death report days – US 1324

Deaths seem to be evenly distributed from FL, TX, and CA

LA California leads the county view at 67. TX leading death county Hidalgo – border county – at 44

I put the top 4 county of the current headlines with NY city with the counties to show the stark difference in terms of confirmation and deaths. Confirmations may end up very close due to the elongated confirms – but the deaths are not even close yet.

This was a quick semester for back to school for UNC-Chapel Hill – https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/08/16/903071127/less-than-a-week-after-starting-classes-unc-chapel-hill-reports-4-covid-19-clust

“The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is shifting undergraduate instruction entirely online after 130 students tested positive for the coronavirus during its first week of classes.

Chancellor Kevin Guskiewicz and Provost Robert Blouin announced the reversal Monday, one week after classes started and two weeks after residence halls opened at limited capacity. They noted that less than 30% of "total classroom seats" were being taught in person.

Even with guidelines and precautions in place, case counts soared in a matter of days.

According to a campus dashboard, 130 students and five employees tested positive last week.

Officials wrote that between Aug. 10 and Aug. 16, the positivity rate on campus rose from 2.8% to 13.6%.

As of Monday morning, they said 177 students are in isolation, and 349 are in quarantine, and most have demonstrated only "mild symptoms."

"As much as we believe we have worked diligently to help create a healthy and safe campus living and learning environment, the current data presents an untenable situation," officials wrote.

Starting Wednesday, all undergraduate in-person instruction will be remote.””

“Barbara Rimer, dean of the Gillings School of Global Public Health at UNC, called for taking an "off-ramp" in a blog post Monday in which she wrote that "we have tried to make this work but it is not working."

Rimer said it seemed that students on campus were practicing social distancing and wearing masks, but "reports of off-campus behavior showed a different pattern."”

Wonder if the facilities were modified in terms of HVAC – for open air. Also how much was just young adult human behavior. Does not bode well for other schools unless they physically do something different.

Really tired of all the news of a super duper test – lets see then made and used! Seems like they should have this test ready to go given already testing the NBA teams https://news.yale.edu/2020/08/15/yales-rapid-covid-19-saliva-test-receives-fda-emergency-use-authorization

“A saliva-based laboratory diagnostic test developed by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health to determine whether someone is infected with the novel coronavirus has been granted an emergency use authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).”

Another day of low deaths for the US (445). India leads at 876

FL leads the US in deaths at 87

Miami-Dade FL lead the counties at 24

On a global view we are approaching 800K deaths and over 22Million confirmed cases. IF you get covid on global basis your chances of death is currently 3.6%. This statistics varies widely depending on where your are in the world. The current 7 day moving average fatality rate is 2.6% – hopefully as a result of better treatment protocols.

Its not going away – its time to get healthy….

There is way too much human element to think we can just put this virus away, but we are not helpless. Many of us can adopt a much healthier lifestyle shifting the odds in to your favor and you will get multiple rewards beyond preventing/defeating a covid infection.

Case in point the vigilant super testing and tracing country – S. Korea – is having problems now – and really it’s the human aspect which we cannot eliminate from society – https://in.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-battles-worst-coronavirus-outbreak-in-months-warns-of-crisis-idINKCN25D0G6

“South Korea warned on Monday of a looming novel coronavirus crisis as new outbreaks flared, including one linked to a church where more than 300 members of the congregation have been infected but hundreds more are reluctant to get tested.”

“South Korea has been one of the world’s coronavirus mitigation success stories but it has nevertheless battled persistent spikes in infections. The latest cases brought its total infections to 15,515 including 305 deaths.”

“Jun, 64, took part in a protest on Saturday in defiance of a government order that all church members self-isolate and get tested.

His lawyers said at a news conference on Monday that Jun did not violate quarantine rules nor intentionally offer incomplete lists. Jun said in an interview with a Christian media outlet that his church was a victim of “virus terror”.

A ban on church services was lifted in April though attendees are required to register and sit apart.”

There are many things you are taught not to have a discussion on – and one of them religion. This issue is global – this is a human thing and this will likely happen worldwide. We must learn to live/adapt with covid – and that means getting healthier and supporting a stronger immune system and eating well – less inflammatory foods.

Human characteristic – to err. This will happen – https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/oklahoma-high-school-student-knowingly-went-class-coronavirus-officials-say-n1236895

“School officials in Oklahoma say a student knowingly attended classes with the coronavirus on the first day of school, thinking it was safe to do so because the child was asymptomatic.

The student at Westmoore High School in Moore, just south of Oklahoma City, was "under the understanding that since they were asymptomatic … they did not need to quarantine for the full 14-day-period," school officials told NBC affiliate KFOR of Oklahoma City on Friday.”

As noted before but reported again recently – the country that reported to eliminate corona now back at it – New Zealand – massive quarantine is just not feasible on a human timeline – https://au.news.yahoo.com/how-nz-coronavirus-outbreak-may-be-linked-to-australia-010631217.html

“Health Minister Chris Hipkins said the source of the Auckland outbreak was unknown, but it appeared it had not come from a confirmed case in hotel quarantine.

"The epidemiology suggests it has come from Australia or the UK because that’s the epidemiological DNA of it. But none of our cases in managed isolation match the same sort of fingerprint as the outbreak we have in Auckland,” Mr Hipkins told Newstalk ZB.

“It’s a mystery.””

To be human is also to be resourceful and inventive. We will figure a way to adapt and overcome – some good news….

China is moving forward with a vaccine – https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-cansino-idUSKCN25D09V

“China’s vaccine specialist CanSino Biologics Inc has won a patent approval from Beijing for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate Ad5-nCOV, state media reported, citing documents from the country’s intellectual property regulator.”

“Saudi Arabia said this month it plans to begin Phase III clinical trials for the CanSino vaccine. CanSino has said it is also in talks with Russia, Brazil and Chile to launch Phase III trials in those countries.”

Not the best of study not the worse in terms of conclusions – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.14.20174490v1.full.pdf

“we conclude that 60 immunity is durable for at least several months after SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

Better than days but still months not years….

Positive movement on the HCQ front – https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/08/17/mn_governor_quietly_reverses_course_on_hydroxychloroquine__143978.html

“This past week Minnesota became the second state to reject regulations that effectively ban the controversial drug hydroxychloroquine for use by COVID-19 patients.

The decision, which comes two weeks after the Ohio Board of Pharmacy reversed an effective ban of its own, was rightfully praised by local health care advocates. “We are pleased that Governor [Tim] Walz lifted his March 27 Executive Order 20-23 restrictions on chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine,” said Twila Brase, president of Citizens’ Council for Health Freedom.”

“The reversal by Walz, a first-term Democrat, clears the way for doctors to prescribe hydroxychloroquine, a drug commonly used to treat malaria and other conditions but one the FDA has declined to recommend for COVID-19 treatment.”

“Prescribing hydroxychloroquine in the early stages of the virus is key, Risch said, and others agree. Steven Hatfill, a veteran virologist and adjunct assistant professor at the George Washington University Medical Center, says the literature supporting hydroxychloroquine is overwhelming. There are now 53 studies that show positive results of hydroxychloroquine in COVID infections,” Hatfill wrote in RealClearPolitics. “There are 14 global studies that show neutral or negative results — and 10 of them were of patients in very late stages of COVID-19, where no antiviral drug can be expected to have much effect.”””

“Hydroxychloroquine might be politically controversial, but that hasn’t stopped some of its critics from taking advantage of the drug. In a May interview, former presidential hopeful Sen. Amy Klobuchar admitted her husband was successfully treated with hydroxychloroquine, a medication she had mocked on Twitter.”

Last point is quite awful…a political jab when lives are on the line and then you go do something that you jabbed on ….shameful….

Another political drug/remedy likely to be discussed is Oleandrin – coming from the Oleander plant – which if ingested at decent amounts will kill you and your pets….but the good thing it doesn’t taste good so eating the quantity to the level of harm unlikely – https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.203489v1.full.pdf

“Oleandrin has also been shown to produce a strong anti-inflammatory response, which may be of benefit

in preventing hyper-inflammatory responses to infection with SARS-CoV-2”

“In summary, we demonstrated that oleandrin has potent anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity in vitro, both when

administered before or after infection. Care must be taken when inferring potential therapeutic benefits

230 from in vitro antiviral effects. Nevertheless, our results indicate the in vivo studies with oleandrin should

proceed rapidly to address the COVID-19 pandemic”

US dipped down below 1K to 571 – but its weekend reporting India on top at 941

Leading the way is TX at 128

Leading the death in county is Broward FL. Dallas TX had a huge surge in confirmation likely a data delay issue 5361. TX leading death county a border county Hidalgo at 24.

The big 4 trending in right direction in confirmation – looks like deaths are stabilizing.

Another quick test announcement this time FDA approval….when will these things show up!….good news it’s a saliva sample no stick up the brain – https://theweek.com/speedreads/931533/fda-approves-salivabased-coronavirus-test-viewed-major-game-changer

“For starters, the process should be a lot more comfortable for people. It doesn’t, as Slavitt puts it, require sticking "something four inches up a kid’s nostril." But besides being painless, it’s affordable — the materials are about $4, Slavitt said, and even when adding the cost of labor and overhead, its development is still cheaper than current tests.”

“Official data shows 88-94%. If you assume 90% sensitivity, this is the best accuracy (sensitivity) of any saliva test.

(It also means if you took it twice, for $20, you would have 99% accuracy).”

“Yale, in partnership with the NBA, developed the test without any intention of making a profit.”

Cant wait to see this being used for the general public! Perhaps govt red tape and lobbying will crush it?

Interesting admission by Dr. Fauci – https://bgr.com/2020/08/15/coronavirus-update-fauci-interview-sunlight-kills-coronavirus-effect-of-outdoors-on-covid-19/

“McConaughey asked Fauci whether it’s true that sunlight kills the virus (which has sickened more than 5.2 million people in the US and killed almost 168,000 at this point, according to Johns Hopkins University). “It does,” Fauci replied. “That’s one of the reasons why outside in the sun when you are interacting … That is much, much better than being inside … Outside is always better than inside.””

So why didn’t quarantine come with a caveat you had to be outside during the day vs. inside – this could have saved many lives based on what I have discovered in the data. In addition to the UV deactivating the virus the body would have also gotten vitamin D and the dilution factor of fresh air making the viral load manageable.

Relatively high death day for a Sunday report Brazil leads with 1742

Florida leads the US states in death at 204

On a county basis Maricopa leads at 49 deaths

Confirmations continue to rise in the Big 4 counties but at a much slower pace than last month peaks. Right now Miami-Dade has the best fatality rate but I suspect it is data integrity issue vs. reality.

Over 10% of the county population in LA and Maricopa has been confirmed with covid-19. Miami at 5.5% and Harris at only 2.1%.

Most countries continue to see a rise in confirmations – the only decline on the chart below is Singapore.

Making more headway in terms of the discussion of indoor spreading and HVAC concerns – finally – https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/08/15/897147164/can-air-conditioners-spread-covid-19

“Among scientists, there is ongoing debate about the extent to which aerosol transmission causes infection. However, it has been generally accepted that it does occur, especially in closed indoor settings. Consequently, there’s a possibility that air conditioning may be a potential route of transmission — sucking in virus particles breathed out by an infected person and then blowing those infectious particles back out in the same room or even another room several floors away.

In fact, other infectious diseases such as measles, tuberculosis, chickenpox, influenza, smallpox and SARS have all been shown to spread through heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems.”

“What we do know is this: HVAC systems primarily recirculate air in a room or a building and don’t bring in any fresh air from outside. So yes, theoretically virus-containing aerosols could be sucked into an air conditioning system and then circulated around a building.

In one study, which is available online as a pre-print and has not undergone scientific review, researchers in Oregon collected samples from various places inside a hospital’s HVAC system and found genetic material from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. This demonstrates that it may be possible for the virus to be transmitted through HVAC systems.

However, researchers did not assess if the genetic material they found was able to cause infection, and they noted there were no confirmed COVID-19 cases associated with the samples found in the ventilation systems.

There is currently no other evidence documenting the possibility of COVID-19 transmission through an air conditioning unit.”

“The bigger risk, says Edward Nardell, a professor of environmental health and immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard Medical School, is that hot weather outside causes people to seek air-conditioned comfort indoors. And indoors, there is less ventilation and more opportunity to spread disease.

"It is not the air conditioner that is doing anything particularly," Nardell says. "It is the fact that you are indoors, you are not socially distancing and you are rebreathing the air that people have just exhaled."”

I actually don’t disagree with the last statement – I would say CAN the air conditioning HELP reduce viral load – AND that’s where the answer lies – IT CAN if we modify it to bring in more fresh air – We can put a better “mask” on it by putting better filters to UV filtration. Why not do what we can to reduce viral load when its not rocket science or so costly? You will get ancillary benefits from better smelling rooms to reduction from other sickness and better allergic environment.

Peru reported an amazingly amount of deaths in one day – must be an accounting issue/ backlog 4143! They have been in lockdown since March 16th so it would seem the lockdown policy is not effective either not able to implement and/or the efficacy of the lockdown is extremely bad. The confirmed per capita in Peru is very high.

“Throughout the stringent four-month lockdown, Peruvians were forbidden to leave their homes unless they needed essential goods; nighttime curfews were enforced, borders were closed, businesses shut down, and a mask order was implemented.

A national mask mandate went into effect on April 7; the government even sent out masks to all people not willing to buy their own.”

Texas leads as US state death at 307

However on county level LA CA leads at 102

Harris county death surge perhaps as result of last month confirmation and it takes that long to death from confirmation 30days – from the quick search I looked up it looks like 4 to 10 weeks is a typical range of death from confirmation.

Peru death spike certainly look like an accounting issue.

Vitamin D being further studied – https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/trials-seek-to-answer-if-vitamin-d-could-help-in-covid-19-67817?

““We know that vitamin D is good for bones and muscles,” says Martineau. “Therefore, it makes sense to take a bit, and it might just help against COVID, too.””

Mass antibody testing in UK find 6% of the population had covid-19 – 13% in London – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/mass-antibody-study-finds-3-4-million-in-england-had-covid-19

“In London, 13% of people had antibodies while in the South West of England it was less than 3%, according to the research, released by the Department of Health and Imperial College London. People from Black, Asian and other minority ethnic groups, care workers, and people living in larger households were among the most likely to have been infected.”

“Among the most likely to have been infected were care home workers (16%) and health care staff (12%).

In the wider population, 17% of people from Black backgrounds and 12% of people from Asian groups were infected.

People in the most deprived areas of England had higher antibody levels than those in the wealthiest areas.

The study suggested one in three people with antibodies showed no symptoms, a feature that increased among the over-65s.”

Not the best of news again – https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/scientists-revise-covid-19-incubation-period-to-7-7-days

“The researchers found that the median incubation period (the middle value) was 7.76 days, while the mean incubation period (the statistical average) was 8.29 days. However, in some cases, the incubation period was much longer.

For 10% of people, the incubation period was longer than 2 weeks (14.28 days), and in 1% of cases, the estimated incubation period was more than 20 days.

The youngest person included in the study was a 6-month-old baby, while the oldest person was 86 years old. However, the authors found no evidence that the incubation period for COVID-19 depends on age.”

Brazil the leaderboard in death at 1262 – US still above 1K

Texas is leading in deaths at 244 and confirmations

Harris county leads the country at 34 deaths

Confirmation trending down for the Big 4 – but the death chart for Harris county is not looking too good but there is a very weird dip to 0 which needs to accounted for.

Harris county death data is so bad…there is no reason for the deaths to trend to zero back in early august – and now deaths rising above previous peaks with available beds. Fatality rates also highest ever. Something is not adding up.

New Zealand confirmation bump is causing a lot of questions for them.

Interestingly August is one of the coldest months for them. It has been in the low 40’s for some hours. Perhaps the huddle up in their homes too long….

Sooner or later this was going to come out – https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/pandemic-appears-have-spared-africa-so-far-scientists-are-struggling-explain-why

“Although Africa reported its millionth official COVID-19 case last week, it seems to have weathered the pandemic relatively well so far, with fewer than one confirmed case for every thousand people and just 23,000 deaths so far. Yet several antibody surveys suggest far more Africans have been infected with the coronavirus—a discrepancy that is puzzling scientists around the continent. “We do not have an answer,” says immunologist Sophie Uyoga at the Kenya Medical Research Institute–Wellcome Trust Research Programme.

After testing more than 3000 blood donors, Uyoga and colleagues estimated in a preprint last month that one in 20 Kenyans aged 15 to 64—or 1.6 million people—has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, an indication of past infection. That would put Kenya on a par with Spain in mid-May when that country was descending from its coronavirus peak and had 27,000 official COVID-19 deaths. Kenya’s official toll stood at 100 when the study ended. And Kenya’s hospitals are not reporting huge numbers of people with COVID-19 symptoms.”

“So what explains the huge gap between antibody data on the one hand and the official case and death counts on the other? Part of the reason may be that Africa misses many more cases than other parts of the world because it has far less testing capacity. Kenya tests about one in every 10,000 inhabitants daily for active SARS-CoV-2 infections, one-tenth of the rate in Spain or Canada. Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation, tests one out of every 50,000 people per day. Even many people who die from COVID-19 may not get a proper diagnosis.”

“Jambo is exploring the hypothesis that Africans have had more exposure to other coronaviruses that cause little more than colds in humans, which may provide some defense against COVID-19. Another possibility is that regular exposure to malaria or other infectious diseases could prime the immune system to fight new pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, Boum adds. Barasa, on the other hand, suspects genetic factors protect the Kenyan population from severe disease”

“If tens of millions of Africans have already been infected, that raises the question of whether the continent should try for “herd immunity” without a vaccine, Boum says—the controversial idea of letting the virus run its course to allow the population to become immune, perhaps while shielding the most vulnerable. That might be preferable over control measures that cripple economies and could harm public health more in the long run. “Maybe Africa can afford it,” given its apparent low death to infection ratio, Boum says. ”We need to dig into that.””

All the above they didn’t want to go over the most obvious in my mind – which is viral load – what causes high viral load but non recirculated air. In order to have AC/Heated homes one typically needs electricity –

Even S. Africa has lower access to electricity than Brazil. When you have limited viral load your body can gradually build a defense to the virus.

Not only is the viral load not building so high in their homes because of a lack of HVAC, the likely have strong immune system as they obtain BCG vaccine when young and exposed to much more than 1st world countries. A strong immune system is obviously a key thing to have as the stronger immune system tied to health will allow the viral load level for infection to be higher. The more exposure to germs when young likely builds that system. Those in 1st world clean their homes with so much disinfectants and the 3 second rule is no longer acceptable – youth will not have strong immunity when they get older which I showed before to be a very key time period to build your immunity for your life in a previous report (https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/05/covid-5-10-20/)

“Reiteration on what concerns me in the future as I noted before – the kids of Covid-19 – living a life of early sterility – https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6491/598.full

Also notes the IMPORTANCE and DEMONSTRATES the immunity system is different when young and needs to be fostered.

“Evidence is also mounting that immune system programming that starts in early life may influence the risk of developing conditions such as allergic, autoimmune, reproductive, and neuropsychiatric disorders in later life, further underscoring the translational implications of this kind of research.””

S. Africa, Kenya, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Nigeria added to the country comparison below. Note the wealthier the country the more test….but at some point more test wont tell you anything more than what you can mathematically understand – similar to polling/sampling methods. As an individual – testing is certainly important but as country/state analysis testing cost money and time and will likely not get you anymore information than sampling.

US on top of death chart 1499 – Brazil back on the list at 1175

TX back on top of death at 305

Even though TX largest county was Harris at 63 – but LA CA county 113 and Maricopa AZ at 111 – so lots more dispersion in TX – with border counties in TX still high relative confirmations and population.

Harris county 7Day Moving Avg death highest level now 39….Interesting ICU beds are still available but deaths are climbing very rapidly. There must be another constraint or the new data for death is not correct. Fatality rate also highest it has been now 3.6% for 7 day moving average view. This all comes after the new data reporting mechanism.

Study figuring out the mechanics on why some do well with covid and some don’t – http://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/08/immune-system-deviations-found-in-severe-covid-19-cases.html

“That difference may stem from how our evolutionarily ancient innate immune system responds to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease.”

“The researchers analyzed the immune response in 76 people with COVID-19 and in 69 healthy people. They found enhanced levels of molecules that promote inflammation in the blood of severely ill COVID-19 patients. Three of the molecules they identified have been shown to be associated with lung inflammation in other diseases but had not been shown previously in COVID-19 infections.”

“The scientists also found elevated levels of bacterial debris, such as bacterial DNA and cell-wall materials, in the blood of those COVID-19 patients with severe cases. The more debris, the sicker the patient — and the more pro-inflammatory substances circulating in his or her blood.

The findings suggest that in cases of severe COVID-19, bacterial products ordinarily present only in places such as the gut, lungs and throat may make their way into the bloodstream, kick-starting enhanced inflammation that is conveyed to all points via the circulatory system.

But the study also revealed, paradoxically, that the worse the case of COVID-19, the less effective certain cells of the innate immune system were in responding to the disease. Instead of being aroused by material from viruses and bacteria, these normally vigilant cells remained functionally sluggish.

If high blood levels of inflammation-promoting molecules set COVID-19 patients apart from those with milder cases, but blood cells are not producing these molecules, where do they come from? Pulendran believes they originate in tissues somewhere in the body — most likely patients’ lungs, the site of infection.”

Another case to be healthy and to promote a good immune system and reduce inflammation which likely very well correlated with diet.

The island shut down…much talked about NZ 0 cases now 4 cases and island is back to shutdown – https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-newzealand/new-zealand-considers-freight-as-possible-source-of-new-coronavirus-cluster-idUKKCN25802F

“The source of the outbreak has baffled health officials, who said they were confident there was no local transmission of the virus in New Zealand for 102 days.

“We are working hard to put together pieces of the puzzle on how this family got infected,” said Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield.

Investigations were zeroing in on the potential the virus was imported by freight. Bloomfield said surface testing was underway at an Auckland cool store where a man from the infected family worked.

“We know the virus can survive within refrigerated environments for quite some time,” Bloomfield said during a televised media conference.

The New Zealand unit of Atlanta, U.S.-based, Americold Realty Trust, a refrigerated storage specialist with operations in the United States, Canada, Argentina and Australia as well as New Zealand, identified itself as the owner of the cool store.”

“China has reported several instances of the coronavirus being detected on the packaging of imported frozen seafood in recent weeks.

The World Health Organization website states there is currently no confirmed case of COVID-19 transmitted through food or food packaging. However, it also notes that studies have shown that the virus can survive for up to 72 hours on plastic.”

The freight concept is quite scary in terms of infection path.

Unless you want to be like N. Korea economic malaise and not much connection to the rest of the world for most of the society – I am not sure if its possible to avoid. Lets just figure a way to get healthy?

Not the best of news – https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-china-jingzhou-idUKKCN2580MZ

“The 68-year-old woman, who had tested positive for coronavirus on Feb. 8 but recovered a few months ago, tested positive again on Aug. 9, the government said.

She is now under quarantine and treatment, and people who have contacted her have tested negative for the coronavirus, it said.

There is no evidence of a risk of transmission from relapsed cases, it added.”

US is the leader of deaths yesterday at 1074 – but Brazil showed not deaths so likely a reporting error.

FL leading the way in deaths…and surprisingly people a rising from the dead in TX with -8 deaths!

Confirmations continue in the big 4 counties

Fixed the Harris timeline of deaths to the latest and you can see the data still looks weird with a big fall of in deaths and then another ramp up. Confirmations are going down for all counties. Fatality rate very low for Miami-Dade at 1.4%.

Good news day….

Big one is the Russians have “finalized” their vaccine even before finishing phase 3 – at times you have to do things differently than regular protocols – in these cased a more strict govt has its advantages. Supposedly Putins own daughter has taken the vaccine – https://apnews.com/fcda62ad992db414d65f23b2adb78e44

“Russia on Tuesday became the first country to clear a coronavirus vaccine and declare it ready for use, despite international skepticism. President Vladimir Putin said that one of his daughters has already been inoculated.

Putin emphasized that the vaccine underwent the necessary tests and has proven efficient, offering a lasting immunity from the coronavirus. However, scientists at home and abroad have been sounding the alarm that the rush to start using the vaccine before Phase 3 trials — which normally last for months and involve thousands of people — could backfire.”

“Putin said that his daughter had a temperature of 38 degrees Celsius (100.4 Fahrenheit) on the day of the first vaccine injection, and then it dropped to just over 37 degrees (98.6 Fahrenheit) on the following day. After the second shot she again had a slight increase in temperature, but then it was all over.

“She’s feeling well and has high number of antibodies,” Putin added. He didn’t specify which of his two daughters — Maria or Katerina — received the vaccine.”

What would you do …which daughter do you give it to first? He hedged with only 1 daughter given – or perhaps the other daughter was the blind sample.

“The Health Ministry said in Tuesday’s statement that the vaccine is expected to provide immunity from the coronavirus for up to two years.

Putin emphasized that vaccination will be voluntary,

Russian authorities have said that medical workers, teachers and other risk groups will be the first to be inoculated. Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said that the vaccination of doctors could start as early as this month.

Professor Alexander Gintsburg, head of the Gamaleya Institute that developed the vaccine, said that vaccination will start while the Phase 3 trials continue. He said that initially there will be only enough doses to conduct vaccination in 10-15 of Russia’s 85 regions, according to the Interfax news agency.

Russian officials have said that large-scale production of the vaccine will start in September, and mass vaccination may begin as early as October.”

Kudos for the Russians – not sure why the negativity – healthy skepticism sure but if they want to cut corners and actually get a product that works quickly perhaps at some point you got to thank them – this isn’t a game where there is only one winner – this is a global pandemic – right?

Success with treatment with RLF-100 (aviptadil) for late stage treatment – https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/08/05/houston-methodist-reports-rapid-recovery-of-covid-19-patients-with-new-drug/

“Houston Methodist Hospital is making national headlines after doctors used a new drug to help treat critically ill COVID-19 patients.

Methodist was the first to report the rapid recovery of patients on ventilators and those with severe medical conditions after three days of treatment. The drug is called RLF-100 and is also known as aviptadil. It has been approved by the FDA for emergency use at multiple clinical sites in patients who are too ill to enter the FDA’s Phase 2/3 trials.

According to a press release from the drug maker NeuroRX, independent researchers have reported that aviptadil blocked replication of the SARS coronavirus in human lung cells and monocytes.”

Warms my heart finally people writing about mechanical solutions – love the simple Box fan in the window – really how much is that going to cost in schools and public places? They have the Dr and fancy colleges next to their names so if common sense doesn’t work you can believe them – https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/08/09/your-hot-weather-guide-to-coronavirus-air-conditioning-and-airflow

“But like so many little luxuries we once took for granted, our days of blissfully ignoring air may be numbered, because a growing number of scientists are convinced that a significant amount of coronavirus transmission occurs through the air in indoor spaces and that poor ventilation magnifies the risk.”

“When in doubt, open the windows. And remember that outdoor air is good.

The precise way that viral particles flow through a room when an infected person talks, sings, exhales or eats is something that scientists are continuing to investigate. Previous case studies have shown it to be complicated. If there is one easy-to-understand principle that aerosol scientists and engineers have come to agree on, though, it’s this: The more outdoor air coming into a room, the better for dispersing that cloud of viral particles that might be lingering. And one of the most reliable and cost-effective ways to get outdoor air into a room is to open a window.

“If you don’t know if the place is well ventilated, but you have the ability to open a window, I would do it,” said Shelly Miller, a professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Colorado Boulder. That, she said, or get out quickly if you’re swinging by an indoor location with other people in it.

“Basically, all air conditioning falls into one of three categories.

— The unit cools both indoor and outdoor air.

— The unit cools and recirculates only indoor air.

— The unit relies entirely on pulling in outdoor air. (These are uncommon outside hospitals and labs.)”

Govt should certified gold standard for those pulling all outdoor air – and given business and places that do that an approval rating to incentivize and promote the healthier technology.

“Centralized air systems, such as those common in office buildings, dorms and some large apartment buildings, often fall in category one. Jimenez and other building scientists involved in coronavirus prevention are currently advising owners of businesses and buildings with category one systems to adjust the ratio to pull in more outdoor air, an enterprise that can be costly. Take a casino in Las Vegas, which is kept cool enough to keep people gambling inside while it feels like 120 degrees Fahrenheit outside. Cooling that hot outdoor air will be more expensive than recirculating the already cool inside air. But given that keeping customers healthy is also a priority, more are willing to revisit their approach, Jimenez said.”

This is a FACT that I have been noting most modern commercial grade HVAC systems have an economizer – this device controls the amount of fresh air pulling into the unit and can typically be adjusted. With the Govt. certification of gold standard this would incentivize businesses to go ahead and adjust to more fresh air if not 100%. There are local guidelines already in many cities on how much fresh air is pulled into the buildings (e.g. NYC min is 20% – and guess what – that’s what the buildings pull no more as they are trying to save money – they don’t pay the health bill). I am working with my HVAC guy to create a way to modify my existing home HVAC to control the amount of fresh air the unit pulls in. In the meantime I am more relaxed on leaving the doors open as I go in and out knowing I am getting fresh air into my home. Of course restricting people into the home eliminates the issue but who knows IF I am a carrier or anyone else in the family – the key is to reduce the viral load to manageable level that your body can defend. Fresh air dilutes the load factor. Over the last decade the US has pushed on energy efficiency and insulation of home – as with many things in life it comes with positive and negative outcomes.

India is on top of the leader board 871 – US big drop to 525

California leading US at 99 – and TX big drop to 73

The Leading death county was Manatee FL at 35 – this is a new one – looks to be stretched thin https://www.bradenton.com/news/coronavirus/article244848342.html . Confirmations continue to grow in the big 4 counties.

France is observing a continued uptick in confirmation after the heat noted before