To me it seemed obvious but okay lets formulized it in a study – wearing mask reduces viral load which then allows the body to cope with the virus and defeat it – https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fucsf.app.box.com%2Fs%2Fblvolkp5z0mydzd82rjks4wyleagt036

This does NOT have to be about mask but ANYTHING to reduce the viral load will shift the odds into your favor. The authors do point out the nuance that the viral load level is causing the asymptomatic carriers.

“Our theory is based on the likelihood of masking reducing the viral inoculum to which the mask-wearer is exposed, leading to higher rates of mild or asymptomatic infection with COVID-19. No prior perspective has specifically focused on this link between population-level facial masking, the viral inoculum, and increasing rates of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2.”

“There are two likely reasons for the effectiveness of facial masks: The first – to prevent the spread of viral particles from asymptomatic individuals to others – has received a great deal of

attention.10,11 However, the second theory- that reducing the inoculum of virus to which a mask-wearer is exposed will result in milder disease12-27 -has received less attention and is the focus of our

perspective.”

“Masks, depending on the material and design, filter out a majority of viral particles, but not all.28 The theory that exposure to a lower inoculum or dose of any virus (whether respiratory, gastrointestinal or

sexually-transmitted) can make subsequent illness far less likely to be severe12-27 has been propounded for some time. Indeed, the concept of the 50% lethal dose (LD50), the virus dose at which fifty percent

of exposed hosts die, determined via controlled experiments in which a range of exposure doses are administered to animals to calculate a dose-mortality curve, was first described in 1938.18 Other studies

have examined the LD50, the dose that leads to severe disease or death, or ID50, the median dose at which 50% of a population gets infected, for a variety of viruses in hosts or animal models”

“Studies to experimentally examine the dose of virus associated with different levels of diseases severity in humans has been limited to non-lethal viruses. In one experiment in preparation for vaccine development, healthy human volunteers exposed to different doses of wild-type influenza A virus developed more severe symptoms at higher inocula of administered virus.34 Giving SARS-CoV-2 in a range of doses to humans experimentally would be unethical, but an animal model has tested this theory of masking attenuating disease severity. In a frequently-cited study showing that hamsters are less likely to contract SARS-CoV-2 infection with a surgical mask partition, those hamsters that did contract COVID-19 with simulated masking had milder manifestations of infection.”

“. In one study among two Swiss cohorts of soldiers, the cohort who employed social distancing or facial masks had no illness after a COVID-19 outbreak, compared to a 30% illness rate in an outbreak under typical conditions”

“In two recent outbreaks in a seafood processing plant in Oregon and a chicken processing plant in Arkansas, where all workers were issued masks each day at work, the rates of

asymptomatic infection among the over 500 individuals who became infected were both 95%.43,44 In a hair salon outbreak from an infected hair stylist where masking was implemented in Missouri, none of

the clients tested (n=67) became infected and the remainder (n=72) remained asymptomatic.45 And 6 finally, universal masking in a Boston healthcare system reduced health care worker infection rates

substantially”

“Countries accustomed to masking since the 2003 SARS-CoV pandemic, including Japan, Hong Kong (Figure 1a)48, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Singapore,9 and those who newly

embraced masking early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the Czech Republic (who mandated masking early on March 23, 2020),49 have fared well in terms of rates of severe illness and death.

Indeed, even when cases have resurged in these areas with population-based masking upon re-opening (e.g. South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan), the case-fatality rate has remained low with opening

but masking,50 suggestive of this viral inoculum theory”

“Exposing society to SARS-CoV-2 without the unacceptable consequences of severe illness (e.g. a “poor man’s vaccine”) could lead to greater community-level immunity52 and slow down spread as we

7 await a vaccine. The level of effective antibody and T-cell immune responses to different manifestations of COVID-19 is still under study, although data for the development of cell-mediated immunity, even

with mild disease, is increasingly hopeful”

“Although universal public masking can certainly protect others, the “inoculum” theory argues for a major protective effect for the individual and will allow for the preservation of life and less severe illness, along

with other COVID-19 control measures, as society re-opens. This perspective puts forth another advantage of population-level facial masking (protecting the individual) for SARS-CoV-2 control based on

an old but enduring theory18 regarding viral inoculum driving clinical manifestations, as well as epidemiologic observations for COVID-19 over time”

Two major points left out in the study which has been mentioned in these reports. This concept of viral load and its lethalness was discussed in how “healthy” frontline people were dying whereas the general population healthy was fine. And more importantly an acknowledgement to focus on viral load reduction via mechanical solutions go beyond the mask. Public spaces can be easily equipped/modified for the HVAC systems to install more effective filtration AND/OR adjust the economizer in commercial HVAC to use more fresh air vs. recirculation. We can even improve on mask and other filters by using advance materials. REDUCE VIRAL LOAD and we shift the odds in our favor – how hard is that to understand?

Another somewhat obvious issue – obesity comes with problems including potentially ineffective vaccinations – https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/05/health/obesity-covid-vaccine-effectiveness-wellness/index.html?

“Scientists know that vaccines engineered to protect the public from influenza, hepatitis B, tetanus and rabies can be less effective in obese adults than in the general population, leaving them more vulnerable to infection and illness. There is little reason to believe, obesity researchers say, that Covid-19 vaccines will be any different.”

“Vaccines harness that inflammatory response. But blood tests show that obese people and people with related metabolic risk factors such as high blood pressure and elevated blood sugar levels experience a state of chronic mild inflammation; the inflammation turns on and stays on.”

“Historically, people with high BMIs often have been excluded from drug trials because they frequently have related chronic conditions that might mask the results. The clinical trials underway to test the safety and efficacy of a coronavirus vaccine do not have a BMI exclusion and will include people with obesity, said Dr. Larry Corey, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, who is overseeing the phase III trials sponsored by the National Institutes of Health.”

Its time to get healthy before winter time – you will feel better – and you will help society as whole keep cost down and help defeat the virus. Eat only whole foods – including meat if you have to – and you will see results.

India takes the leader board in deaths at 1007 – US 515 – but it’s the weekend reporting

TX leads for US at 99

Death dispersed in TX. County wise San Bernardino leads the US at 44.

The state of Maharashtra is getting close to California total confirmation levels and will likely exceed it very soon. Death totals have exceeded Lombardia Italy.

A good article on the math of mask – by Nassim Talib – I don’t think cotton mask or basic face covering are the end all or perhaps even the most effective but I believe it to be quite a low hanging fruit worthwhile of using in a crowd. Outdoors by yourself or a few others in a breeze don’t think the value is there. – https://medium.com/incerto/the-masks-masquerade-7de897b517b7

“SIX ERRORS: 1) missing the compounding effects of masks, 2) missing the nonlinearity of the probability of infection to viral exposures, 3) missing absence of evidence (of benefits of mask wearing) for evidence of absence (of benefits of mask wearing), 4) missing the point that people do not need governments to produce facial covering: they can make their own, 5) missing the compounding effects of statistical signals, 6) ignoring the Non-Aggression Principle by pseudolibertarians (masks are also to protect others from you; it’s a multiplicative process: every person you infect will infect others).”

Engineering ingenuity will save us – Mask cleaning done with a instant pot! – https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00534

Important statement

“Our finding that the TV capsid protein instead of the genome was the main target of the dry heat…”

Note the covid virus is an envelope virus – meaning it has an outershell (TV capsid protein). When that shell gets destroyed the virus becomes vulnerable and eventually deactivates unless it finds it host. This is very important to understand for other implications. During cold weather the outershell hardens – hence harder to destroy – hence cold seasons!

“The dry heat generated by the cooker (100 °C, 50 min) was the optimal condition for the inactivation of tested viruses. Because an ∼4-log10 reduction of SARS-CoV-2 on the respirator’s surface was achieved by applying dry heat (70 °C, 60 min),(25) the dry heat used in this study (100 °C, 50 min) should be adequate to inactivate SARS-CoV-2.

The respirator integrity (filtration performance and fit testing) did not degrade after 20 cycles of the dry heat treatment.(5) Note that the filtration performance and quantitative fit testing do not guarantee the respirator can be reused for 20 cycles because the respirator integrity will also be affected by the user donning and doffing the respirator.(26) Although the temperature of the respirator’s surface was higher than the maximum operating temperature (50 °C) that is provided by the manufacturer,(27) the primary materials for the respirator (polyester, polypropylene, polyurethane, and polyisoprene) can withstand a temperature as high as 150 °C.(28,29) Because the temperature of the pot surface is higher than the allowable temperature for the outside surface of the respirator (polypropylene), direct contact between the respirator and the pot surface must be avoided using a towel or some other item to create a barrier and insulate the respirators.”

US leads the death chart with over 1K

Once again its Texas leading the pack

And its Harris county leading – so ever since the change in death reporting Harris county is leading state of Texas. It does seem to make sense most confirmations should have most death.

What is interesting is the hospital stats don’t really show the deaths should be increasing. ICU beds used for covid has been trending down. Still working on pulling the history for Texas from a different source. Interestingly Harris county is still reporting the old death figures (800’s vs. 1500’s) https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c0de71f8ea484b85bb5efcb7c07c6914

Really not sure about any of the data at this point….

World watch we are seeing still a trend in increasing confirmations – per heat wave – the positive thing the fatality rates are dropping relative to the past

On 8/2/20 (https://covid19mathblog.com/2020/08/covid-8-2-20/) – I noted increase temp July 31 (high 99 in Paris, London, Wuhan, and 88 Tokyo) – . Well unfortunately the temps are still getting up there and correspondingly covid confirmations are rising greater than the past few weeks. There is no doubt our indoor living is contributing to the increase in covid. Extreme high temps and low temps, we huddle into our comforts of our homes – but we don’t do it in isolation we have relatives and friends and they unknowingly bring covid and with our recycling HVAC unit and highly efficient homes the viral load builds up to the point of infection.

It is not about viral load = zero but viral load being managed to be low to shift the odds into your favor to not get infected as noted in previous article I posted – https://www.alternet.org/2020/04/new-study-reveals-the-best-conditions-for-spreading-coronavirus/

“…similar virus also in the coronavirus family, the MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) coronavirus, is known to require somewhere between 1,000 and 10,0000 viral particles in order to infect a person. Since SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible, Willem van Schaik, a professor of microbiology at the University of Birmingham, estimates that the number of particles needed to become infected is in the high hundreds or low thousands.”

I believe we can engineer are way out of this problem. We need to be fast tracking not these mega pharma options alone but our own engineering solutions to reduce viral load. This material has been demonstrated in independent labs to filter and deactivate covid this should be fast tracked to the market/research to see if this shifts the odds into our favor – https://www.ascendmaterials.com/innovations/acteev-technology/acteev-protect-antimicrobial-technology

These smaller engineered solutions don’t come with top end lobbying money nor advertisements on your TV but they are there.

US and Brazil continue to report deaths back over 1K

US death is lead by TX at 278

This time Harris county is leading the death count in TX at 55

Still haven’t fixed the time series as it is easier said than done but the 55 deaths in Harris county is based on the new death data. Two days ago is the spike revision to the dataset – highlights the major revision that occurred. Now the lowest fatality rate is in Miami-Dade county at 1.4%

There has been a significant update on how deaths are being reported in TX and most notably Harris County. There was this article back on July 27th – not sure if it is connected but only recently has John Hopkins data and also TX data now observing this new number. https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-covid-19-death-numbers-jump/285-19fc2cc4-a1ab-4d28-88a2-e439a176eb60

This impacts the fatality rate – which I have been boasting about – now I have to take some of that back – guess if its too good to be true its too good to be true? Overall still the fatality rate is not high relative to the rest of the dataset at under 2% now.

This revision is going to cause us to revamp the data as the JH data comes in two sets – a daily set and time series set. The daily set is still not updated to the time series.

Likely many will be reporting US large death increases of near 2K….863 is due to TX – which a large portion is due to the data revision – particularly if you don’t update the history set – you will see a big jump. Will the media take the time to research the issue?

County data map it becomes obvious something went awry when Harris county is the lone red county at 654 death increase

Data cleansing time….the positive thing is they revised the history set – its better to be consistently wrong than randomly right in data in my opinion.

As noted before – but reconfirmed by this paper – the common cold could be a key in our immune body defense given they are also corona viruses – https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871

“Surprisingly, antigen-specific T cell studies performed with five different cohorts reported that 20-50% of people who had not been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 had significant T cell reactivity directed against peptides corresponding to SARS-CoV-2 sequences (3–7). The studies were from geographically diverse cohorts (USA, Netherlands, Germany, Singapore, and UK), and the general pattern observed was that the T cell reactivity found in unexposed individuals was predominantly mediated by CD4+ T cells. It was speculated that this phenomenon might be due to preexisting memory responses against human “common cold” coronaviruses (HCoVs), such as HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63, or HCoV-229E. These HCoVs share partial sequence homology with SARS-CoV-2, are widely circulating in the general population, and are typically responsible for mild respiratory symptoms (14–16). However, the hypothesis of crossreactive immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and common cold HCoVs still awaits experimental trials. This potential preexisting cross-reactive T cell immunity to SARS-CoV-2 has broad implications, as it could explain aspects of differential COVID-19 clinical outcomes, influence epidemiological models of herd immunity (17, 18), or affect the performance of COVID-19 candidate vaccines.”

You don’t want to be in a bubble and never get sick unless you plan to forever to stay in your bubble. If this is true it can explain why some people have no impact from covid and the key might be just the common cold.

Where are all these test that are supposed to know results in less than a day – here is another one – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-06/how-a-dna-test-machine-mutated-to-find-covid-in-90-minutes

“the Nudgebox, delivers a result in 90 minutes on the spot — no need to ship samples to a lab — based on either a nose swab or some saliva. It can also identify the flu and another common lung ailment known as respiratory syncytial virus.”

I have read multiple Sweden analysis and each report I think they have some bias immediately by the authors. As I have been saying one cant look at country data and really understand much – so I did the work and broke down the countries to the lowest denominator I can find. The biggest grouping here is probably England,UK Hubei China, and Maharashtra India.

The results below are as of yesterday. The other major theme I have discussed is that confirmations and deaths likely need to be discussed separately before reconnecting them. A no quarantine policy IN THEORY should have higher confirmations. Deaths are a function of HOW the confirmations are distributed AND the local healthcare process and capabilities. How an open policy reduces the spread vs quarantining everyone is through society awareness, investments, and education program to reduce viral load (social distance, wear mask, improve ventilation (windows, filters, etc..)). It would seem much like most path of education you need some hard learning. Stockholm, Sweden of late is running very low confirmations. Nonetheless 5 more areas have a lot more confirmations per capita and 4 of those implemented quarantines (LA, NY, Maricopa, Miami-Dade).

The death part of the equation has a lot to do with who got sick and healthcare capabilities and treatment plan. The who got sick can probably controlled with “smart” quarantining not general population quarantining. Sweden did have issues with nursing homes and there are lawsuits in place now. On death per capita the only region worse than Sweden is NYC – they also had nursing home issues.

Putting the two stat together we get the fatality rate – IF you get confirmed with covid what are your chances of dying. Lombardia, Italy takes the prize at 17.4% and England is second place at 15.8%. Looking at overall country stat UK would have been the highest but the reality the virus is somewhat focused and not that dispersed so it wouldnt cover vast counties and states. In context the counties observing 15% of US confirmation are under 2.5% fatality rate with Harris county taking the prize of 1% – best in the world! A stat the Houston health facilities should be proud of.

If we just look at July – we can see Sweden fatality rate took a dramatic drop to only 2.7% vs. overall of 10.1% – as compared to NY dropped to 4.4% vs. 10.4% overall. Interestingly Hubei China is at zero for the entire month of July.

The best policy – as of now based on the above data – is a smart quarantine approach – quarantining the elderly and those who would considered high risk. And then massive education of ways to reduce viral load and help in investments to reduce viral load. Quarantine policy gave many families false hope and created viral load breeding grounds plus created a govt. conspiracy fuel – vs. education and trust environment. I think naturally families who felt at risk would have quarantined (limit social interaction). Education/awareness would induce people to wear mask and social distance (doing the low hanging fruit actions so they can continue with their lives). The mix message for mask due to saving it for the front line is akin to solving not the problem but a side effect. Investments/rebates/standards for better HVAC for public spaces would have given business owners a leg up to invest so society could continue the best it could.

Big number death day US 1449 Brazil 1437

Texas leads death at 435

Once again a good deal of the death in unassigned counties (58) – Highest county Hidalgo (87) on border. Webb (65) on border….IF people just looked at TX stat one might think Houston and Dallas is a death pool. Houston 16 Dallas 4

Confirmations trending down for the big 4 other than Harris

Lots of talk about that FL, TX, CA, and AZ fatality rates are low because of improved treatment plans etc….ok if that’s the case shouldn’t this treatment plan apply to all the country at least in the past month….Below few graphs are just July data.

NY and NJ observing much higher fatality rates. FL and CA are a big percentage of confirmation yet a smaller piece of the death percentage. The confirmations rates are certainly not consistent state by state. NY test more than FL and TX yet confirmations are 18X different. Something seems very strange.

As I have always been saying rolling up this type of data only gives a high level assessment of reality – which can be misleading. If we zoom into the counties and filter only counties with 500+ confirmation and greater than 2.5% fatality rate you get the following. NJ counties are not where you want to be if you are confirmed. New York City the epicenter the one with all the experience – still at 4.4% fatality rate!

All these counties are relatively small in the grand scheme of confirmations for the month of July. Our big four counties always talked about (LA, Harris, Miami-Dade, and Maricopa) represents almost 15% of total confirmations for the month of July. Look at their fatality rates well under 2% for the month of July. Top number % of total confirmations in the US – bottom number fatality rate in the county.

This disparity suggest something is going on. Testing is not uniform – the analysis of confirmation and the analysis of deaths need to almost be taken independently. Who are the vendors of test? Are we consistently using the best test available? State by state differs? What is the point of testing – are we doing something about test results? Are death attributes to covid becoming too high or too low in some counties– so much disparity in different counties?

Unfortunately more questions than answers when examining July results in the US.

Midweek reporting death surge – US 1399 – likely to play catch up with the low numbers observed last two days

TX leading the way in deaths 255

Once again a significant portion of TX deaths are showing up in unassigned counties (49)– still have no idea what that means. San Bernardino reported 59 deaths – highest in the country. Confirmations continue to grow in the big 4 counties.

Big 4 – still keeping the fatality rate low

Fatality rates in UK and Italy are still way higher than the big 4 counties

Now we are getting some coverage on ways to reduce viral load – no doubt scams will exist – hopefully govt comes in with guidelines and stamp of approval – article notes a banana test! https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/uv-light-wands-are-supposed-to-kill-viruses-but-do-they-really-work

“If you want to test a light you’ve already bought, try the (yes, really) banana test. Place the light over a green banana for 15 minutes. Any UV-C lamp will turn the skin brown. But here’s the caveat: The banana test works on a broad wavelength, and doesn’t specifically target a wavelength of 260 nanometers. But it will tell you if the bulb works and whether it’s actually emitting UV-C light, which are both important questions, says Armani.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/08/03/covid-does-uv-light-kill-viruses-germs-what-to-know/5546413002/

“On July 29, JetBlue Airways revealed the Honeywell UV Cabin System, a robot the size of a beverage cart with arms that extend over the top of seats to sweep the cabin and treat aircraft surfaces. It can disinfect the entire cabin in roughly 10 minutes.

Troutbeck, a historic retreat set on 250 acres in New York’s Hudson Valley, upgraded all of the resort’s HVAC systems with a new HEPA filtration system that includes UV light for extra germ-fighting.

New York’s public transportation system, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, worked with Columbia University to test UV light in vehicles and other fixed locations, such as break rooms and operation centers.”

“UVC light damages the virus’s RNA so that it is no longer able to reproduce and infect. It can also damage the protein that coats the virus, disabling it to attach to a host cell.

Typical germicidal UVC light kills viruses at a wavelength of 254 nanometers. However, all viruses are different and some respond to shorter or longer wavelengths. They also require a different UV dose, which is measured by light intensity and exposure time.”

“UV market is like the ‘Wild West’: Most products are ‘rubbish’”

Not the best of report as school starts – https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2768952

“Our analyses suggest children younger than 5 years with mild to moderate COVID-19 have high amounts of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA in their nasopharynx compared with older children and adults. Our study is limited to detection of viral nucleic acid, rather than infectious virus, although SARS-CoV-2 pediatric studies reported a correlation between higher nucleic acid levels and the ability to culture infectious virus.5 Thus, young children can potentially be important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 spread in the general population, as has been demonstrated with respiratory syncytial virus, where children with high viral loads are more likely to transmit”

Hopefully not just opening schools without creating more ventilation – modify HVAC, open windows, wear mask – low hanging fruit….it can be done as noted in this article – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/how-to-stay-safe-while-flying-and-staying-in-hotels-during-a-pandemic.html

His big concern is not the flying part as noted – over 50% of the air is fresh and HVAC has HEPA filters – as noted before a 12hour flight with an infected person and NO other person got infected – shows it is possible to create an environment to limit the spread. We should cost effectively be able to create schools and public places similar to an airplane environment if not better as one can open a window!

Another good death day for the US (542) – seems so strange how sporadic the death reporting is – low death days no news but then report 1500+ day its all over the press. India leads the world at 803

Texas leads the US at 138 deaths

Once again a decent amount of death in an unassigned county (19) – we are trying to figure out what this means. Majority of death on the border counties Cameron and Hidalgo.

Cameron had a surge of confirmation of 2545.

Harris county continues to confirm but the deaths are limited keeping the fatality rate 1% or less.

Confirmations are not going away worldwide – the original countries are not taking confirmations to zero….Japan rising 1280 a day….The only country keeping confirmations low is S. Korea – still not zero.

Headlines stating CA over 500K confirmed cases FL approaching etc…

The trend would seem inevitable as we are testing more than any places in the world – is ignorance bliss? Attributing death to covid – requires testing….is the same method being applied all over the world. Russia testing per capita over ours but yet confirmation per capita almost 3X lower at 0.58%. Fatality rate is also half of US at 1.6%.

Unfortunately I had to change the limit from 500 deaths to 1000+ deaths so wouldn’t put so many countries on chart.

In terms of volume tested CA,NY, FL, TX lead the pack – hence should see the most confirmed – and that is exactly the result.

US death drop to 413 – but it’s a Sunday reporting. India on top at 771

TX deaths drop to 13 – proving once again looking at daily numbers are not reasonable due to the volatility of reporting.

Same counties of issue…

Miami-Dade deaths continue to be strong at 40 deaths a day on 7 day Moving average. Harris county still the best at 17 even though confirming over 1000 a day.

Mechanical solutions exist to mitigate viral load….a good article discussing the current mask available and rankings – https://www.sciencealert.com/some-masks-are-better-than-others-here-they-are-ranked-best-to-worst

The key thing even without going N95 but some simple cotton – is that the virus is likely to coalesce with water vapor (spit) – the chances of survival for virus by doing so is much greater as in its raw form it will likely have greater chance of dissolving the envelope that protects it via UV or other factors. Yes cotton or any basic material is porous enough for a virus but it doesn’t mean that they capture nothing as they will capture the water vapors.

Mask technology and their availability will improve and it will improve your chances to not get infected or get someone else infected. Potentially we could all be walking around with some device – check out this potential “mask” – https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/tech-design/article/3095523/best-face-mask-coronavirus-new-zealand-unveils-new

I am sure you are now reading and seeing articles discussing the second wave and the virus is here to stay etc… Yes I have been saying that is very likely but most of those articles are quite doomsday and sensationalized. You are not helpless we have technology to reduce viral load to shift the odds into your favor and we have the knowledge to know if you are healthy you have a great chance in surviving AND not having long-term implications – as noted in report I sent a few days ago.

7/29/20 “Good news is you can reduce your odds by 2X in terms of longterm impact by getting healthy (physically and mentally)

“Obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg per m2) (aOR 2.31; 95% CI = 1.21–4.42) and reporting a psychiatric condition§ (aOR 2.32; 95% CI = 1.17–4.58) also were associated with more than twofold odds of not returning to the patient’s usual health after adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity.” CDC”

As we enter into the “dormant” phase sep-oct – as people in most regions open up the windows – we need to take advantage of this time and get healthy as a society. A healthy society will beat this virus more cost effectively than any treatment or vaccine can. It will also come with added benefits beyond covid mitigation. There are some personal responsibility and accountability on your part to shift the odds into your favor – don’t wait for the government to tell you.

New report shows sugar/fructose without fatty acid Omega-3 can be very detrimental to your health – https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/mnt/releases/309479#1

“A range of diseases — from diabetes to cardiovascular disease, and from Alzheimer’s disease to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder — are linked to changes to genes in the brain. A new study by UCLA life scientists has found that hundreds of those genes can be damaged by fructose, a sugar that’s common in the Western diet, in a way that could lead to those diseases. However, the researchers discovered good news as well: An omega-3 fatty acid known as docosahexaenoic acid, or DHA, seems to reverse the harmful changes produced by fructose”

It is a high death day for a weekend – US over 1.1K

Brazil and India still the same states

In the US Texas had a high death of 289

Interestingly the Texas death continues to report a large amount in non-reported counties – 82…then the next leading county is Val Verde 27 – once again on the border of Mexico. Deaths do not seem to be tied with the confirmations regions.

Confirmations continue to rise in the four major counties. Miami-Dade death spike is concerning – thought still second lowest fatality rate

Deaths are creeping back up for UK, Japan, France and China. There was some really hot days for them in major cities last week.

Paris 99 July 31

London 99 July 31

Tokyo it has been raining – plus just seeing some high temps last two days

Wuhan is seeing some heat now to 99 this weekend – not sure if AC is as readily available for them so they may not see as much of an uptick if any.

An Italian study shows similar results from Ford study on HCQ – https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30600-7/fulltext

“the use of hydroxycholoroquine + azithromycin was associated with a 66% reduction in risk of death as compared to controls; the analysis also suggested a larger effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in patients with less severe COVID-19 disease (PO2/FiO2 > 300, interaction p-value<.0001)”

Tired of beating a dead horse – there is almost 0 sense in talking to people who are against it now. Those on the fence the risk reward is asymmetric if you ask me. Not a dangerous drug given how many people have taken it and the history of the drug – perhaps it is not effective but given low cost and the potential upside not sure why the resistance. Obviously with ANY drug there are side effects more harmful to certain people therefore should always discuss this with your doctor.

Great news from Texas – they have identified a more effective inhibitor to suppress the replication of SARs-CoV-2 that has not been investigated https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.28.223784v1.full.pdf

“Our antiviral assays indicated that MPI5 and MPI8 performed much better than GC376

and 11a, two molecules that have been explored for COVID-19 preclinical and clinical tests. Due

to the urgent matter of COVID-19, we urge preclinical and clinical tests of both MPI5 and MPI8

in the treatment of COVID-19 and are actively exploring them.”

Learning from others is important in the age of information. Thailand was one of the earliest countries to get Covid-19 due to extensive tourism and regional location – yet they have done a remarkable job limiting deaths (1.75% fatality rate) – perhaps not the best at taking the spread to zero but that seems to be an infeasible goal. Their treatment plan was a cocktail of existing drugs including using Faviparavir (below from various articles) – by the way they also have universal healthcare:

“The doctors combined the anti-flu drug oseltamivir with lopinavir and ritonavir, anti-virals used to treat HIV”

“medications lopinavir and ritonavir with large doses of the flu drug oseltamivir”

“Thailand has been importing Favipiravir, mostly from Japan, to treat Covid-19 patients with moderate to severe symptoms since January. Pitchaya Dilokpattanamongkol, a lecturer at the Faculty of Pharmacy, Mahidol University, said that Favipiravir is not officially recognised as the main drug to fight against Covid-19. But she touted its "outstanding efficacy" in helping treat the coronavirus while "producing less side effects".

"Many studies found that the drug has produced [limited] side-effects, which can occur in all medicines. There might be an increased risk of uric acid concentrations in the body … but it is in an acceptable level," Ms Pitchaya said.

But she warned that the Favipiravir is unsafe for pregnant woman because it directly affects the fetus in utero. Ms Pitchaya said that the best way to control Covid-19 would be a vaccine. “

“Favipiravir, the generic name for Avigan is approved for manufacture and sale in Japan as an influenza antiviral. It selectively inhibits the RNA polymerase of the influenza virus, an enzyme required for viral replication once human host cells are infected. COVID-19 also uses this enzyme to replicate and is classified into the same type of single-stranded RNA virus as influenza; hence, it is believed that Avigan may be effective in treating COVID-19.

Earlier this month, Japan media reports that the country is considering to distribute the influenza antiviral Avigan for free. The medicine developed by Japan’s Fujifilm was affirmed "clearly effective in treating coronavirus” by China.”

Thailand in Red – Japan in Green for perspective

The US is in the lead for deaths 1259

This day FL is leading the deaths at 257 – TX leads in confirmation 10K

The deaths in FL is located in where the confirmations occurring unlike in TX – Miami Dade 96/257 deaths

The four county view – Miami-Dade deaths are picking up and should be concerning. Other counties are steady.

Harris county hospitals are doing well given all the confirmations. 7 day MA death is highest its been but still way lower than other regions with the extent of confirmations (16). ICU beds seem to be ample.